近期国内政策积极表态为市场构建支撑，且大盘已经进行较长时间的震荡，有望迎来跨年行情的布局窗口期。据信达证券统计，2010 年以来，每年年底 到第二年春季的跨年阶段，大多会出现一段跨年行情。行情通常持续 1-2 个月，启动时间集中在 12 月-次年 1 月。从历史经验来看，如果指数处在低位， 则跨年行情启动的时间较早，幅度较大，有正收益的概率较高。但如果指数处在高位，则跨年行情启动的时间往往较晚，幅度和收益不确定性也更大。 | 年份 | 起始时间 | 结束时间 | 持续交易日数 | 上证综指涨幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 | 2025/1/13 | 2025/3/19 | રર | 8% | 涨 | | 2024 | 2024/2/6 | 2024/5/20 | ୧୩ | 17% | 跌 | | 2023 | 2022/12/23 | 2023/3/3 | 46 | 9% | 跌 | | 2022 | 2022/1/28 | 2022/2/9 | 19 | 3% | 涨 | | 2021 | 2020/11/3 | 2021/2/19 | ...

与此同时，MSCI香港指数在资本流动和房地产市场情绪最终复苏的支撑下，预期涨幅可达18%。摩根 大通预计明年三大指数的盈利增长率将在9%至15%之间，为股市上涨提供基本面支撑。 汇丰私人银行同样对香港市场持乐观态度，将恒生指数的目标设定为到2026年底达到31000点，较当前 收盘价上涨22%。该行指出，流动性增强和盈利趋势良好将成为推动因素。 摩根大通首席中国股票策略师近期发布预测，预计随着估值正常化以及遏制产能过剩举措提振关键行业 盈利能力，中国股市将在2026年实现显著上涨。该机构预测MSCI中国指数到2026年底将上涨约18%， 沪深300指数涨幅约12%。 据智通财经报道，摩根大通认为MSCI中国指数将进一步反弹。该指数作为全球投资者资产配置和投资 分析的重要基准，今年以来已累计上涨超过23%。自1月13日低点以来，MSCI中国指数累计涨幅已超过 30%，显示出中国股市的强劲复苏势头。 中国提振内需的举措有望提振企业利润率，这为股市上涨创造了有利条件。香港企稳的房地产市场、不 断扩大的零售活动、日益活跃的IPO项目以及旅游业的增长，预计将支撑香港的经济复苏。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI ...

Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for November is 52.50, with a month-on-month increase of 0.17% [4] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in October is -2.0 percentage points, with a month-on-month increase of 0.8 percentage points [4] - The current price of London gold is $4,197 per ounce [4] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Total inventory of five major steel varieties is at the highest level for the same period in four years [5] - Price changes this week include rebar +0.31%, cement price index -0.10%, rubber -1.01%, coke -3.18%, coking coal -1.41%, iron ore -0.13% [5] - National blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, and asphalt operating rates have changed by -0.90 percentage points, -0.30 percentage points, and +0.3 percentage points respectively [5] Real Estate Completion Chain - Prices of titanium dioxide and flat glass have increased by 0.78% and remained unchanged respectively, with glass gross profit at -58 yuan/ton and titanium dioxide gross profit at -1,649 yuan/ton [6] - The operating rate for flat glass this week is 73.63% [6] Industrial Products Chain - Major commodity price performance this week includes cold-rolled steel and copper prices unchanged, aluminum +3.36%, with corresponding gross profit changes turning from loss to profit and increasing by 2.20% and 12.47% respectively [7] - The national semi-steel tire operating rate is 70.92%, with a month-on-month increase of 1.73 percentage points [7] Subcategories - Electrolytic aluminum spot price reaches the highest level since May 2022, while tungsten concentrate price continues to reach the highest level since 2012 [8] - The price of graphite electrodes is 19,000 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 2.70%, and the comprehensive gross profit is 1,357.4 yuan/ton, down 17.59% [8] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 22,150 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 3.36%, and estimated profit is 4,750 yuan/ton (excluding tax), up 12.47% [8] - The price of electrolytic copper is 91,600 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 4.71% [8] - The price of tungsten concentrate is 354,000 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 4.42% [8] Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar and iron ore this week is 4.09 [10] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 40 yuan/ton [10] - The price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel is 530 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 40 yuan/ton [10] - The price ratio of stainless steel hot-rolled to electrolytic nickel is 0.11 [10] - The price difference between small rebar (mainly used in real estate) and large rebar (mainly used in infrastructure) is 170 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 6.25% [10] - The price difference between medium-thick plates and rebar is 70 yuan/ton [10] - The London spot gold-silver price ratio is 73 times this week [10] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in November is 47.60%, with a month-on-month increase of 1.7 percentage points [11] - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) comprehensive index this week is 1,114.89 points, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.62% [11] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate this week is 75.80%, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.10 percentage points [11] Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.28% this week, with the best-performing cyclical sector being industrial metals (+9.14%) [12] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the CSI 300 PB ratio is 37.97% and 100.00% respectively [12] - The current PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the CSI 300 PB ratio is 0.53, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 (reached in August 2017) [12]

Group 1 - The market rose on December 5, surpassing the 3900-point mark, primarily due to the adjustment of risk factors for insurance companies, encouraging investment in A-shares [1] - Institutions estimate that if insurance funds fully allocate to the adjusted stocks in the CSI 300 index, it could bring over 100 billion yuan of incremental funds to the stock market, significantly enhancing market liquidity [1] - The policy is favorable for hard technology, with differentiated risk factor settings based on holding periods for stocks in the CSI 300 index, the CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 index, and STAR Market stocks [1] Group 2 - The insurance sector saw a notable increase of 5.80%, while brokerage firms followed with a rise of 2.57% [2] - The overall market sentiment indicates a strong push towards the 4000-point mark, maintaining an optimistic outlook for technology and index upward trends before the Spring Festival [2]

按成交金额环比增加看，平安沪深300ETF（510390）、中金沪深300ETF（510320）等今日成交额较上 一交易日分别增加536.06%、169.19%，增幅居前。 统计显示，沪深300指数ETF今日合计成交额55.17亿元，环比上一交易日增加20.50亿元，环比增幅为 59.14%。 具体来看，华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF（510300）今日成交额32.17亿元，较上一交易日增加13.45亿元，环比 增幅为71.87%；嘉实沪深300ETF（159919）今日成交额6.27亿元，较上一交易日增加3.09亿元，环比增 幅为97.39%；易方达沪深300ETF（510310）今日成交额7.79亿元，较上一交易日增加1.57亿元，环比增 幅为25.29%。 沪深300指数ETF12月5日成交额变动 | 基金代码 | 基金简称 | 今日涨跌幅 | 今日成交额 | 较上一交易日增加 | 环比增幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 510300 | 华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF | 0.88% | 32.17亿元 | 13.45亿元 | 71.87% | | 15991 ...

每经AI快讯，12月1日，沪深300指数上涨1%至4571.98点。 ...

Group 1 - The Huabao CSI 300 Enhanced Strategy ETF (562073) will be launched from December 1 to December 12, 2025 [1] - The fund is managed by Huabao Fund, with Xu Linming and Wang Zheng as fund managers [1] - The performance benchmark for the fund is the return rate of the CSI 300 Index [1]

Core Viewpoint - The overall market sentiment has improved significantly, but there remains a notable divergence in various sentiment indicators, indicating a complex market environment [3]. Group 1: Market Risk Assessment - The risk score for the stock market, as per the Zhongtai Asset Management risk system, is 52.77, an increase from 45.79 last month, driven by marginal improvements in market sentiment [2]. - The valuation of the CSI 300 index has slightly decreased to 60.68 from 64.74, remaining in a relatively high range over the past six months, with significant valuation disparities across different sectors [2]. - The market expectation score has decreased to 52.00 from 55.00, reflecting weaker macroeconomic data, particularly in fixed asset investment growth [2]. Group 2: Sector Performance - Among the 28 Shenwan first-level industries, sectors such as steel, electronics, real estate, and defense continue to have valuations above the historical 60th percentile, while agriculture and non-bank financials remain below the 10th percentile [2]. - The consumer market showed a slight rebound in October, with retail sales growing by 4.28%, although this was a decrease of 0.22% from the previous month [8]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Fixed asset investment growth has declined to -1.7%, with significant weakness in real estate and building materials, while industrial value-added growth remains stable at 4.9% year-on-year [7][8]. - The overall liquidity in the market is under pressure, with social financing and M2 growth rates declining, indicating a need for close monitoring of these trends [10][11].

Group 1 - The A-share market has recently experienced significant adjustments due to three main reasons: a decline in domestic economic data from September to October, a stronger US dollar index affecting market risk appetite, and year-end pressures leading to a slowdown in capital inflow [1][5][6] - Economic data for October shows a continued weakening trend, with industrial value-added growth at 4.9%, retail sales down by 0.1 percentage points to 2.9%, and a decline in manufacturing investment growth [5][6] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has indicated that the most significant pressure points for the economy have likely passed, suggesting a lower probability of interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter, with more substantial easing measures expected in early 2026 [5][6][10] Group 2 - The US Federal Reserve's shifting expectations regarding interest rate cuts have created confusion in the market, with the dollar index rising, which has negatively impacted the Hong Kong stock market and indirectly affected A-shares [6][10] - A-share financing has seen a slight net outflow, with the total financing amount decreasing from 2.48 trillion yuan to 2.47 trillion yuan, although the proportion of financing balance to A-share market capitalization has increased [7] - The investment strategy for November and December is expected to focus on individual stocks rather than indices, with an emphasis on sectors with strong fundamentals and high dividend yields [8][10] Group 3 - Long-term projections for the A-share market in 2026 suggest a bullish outlook, with the CSI 300 index expected to rise by 15% to 22%, supported by both liquidity injections and improving fundamentals [10] - The anticipated nominal growth rate in 2026, despite a potential decline in actual GDP growth, is expected to drive earnings growth for the CSI 300 index by 5% to 6% [10]

Core Insights - The total trading volume of the CSI 300 Index ETFs reached 12.118 billion yuan today, an increase of 7.023 billion yuan from the previous trading day, representing a growth rate of 137.86% [1] Trading Volume Analysis - Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF (510300) had a trading volume of 6.884 billion yuan, up 4.240 billion yuan from the previous day, with a growth rate of 160.31% [1] - Harvest CSI 300 ETF (159919) recorded a trading volume of 1.705 billion yuan, an increase of 1.111 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 186.83% [1] - E Fund CSI 300 ETF (510310) saw a trading volume of 1.473 billion yuan, up 746 million yuan, with a growth rate of 102.64% [1] - The CSI 300 Index ETF (510370) and Guolianan CSI 300 ETF (515660) had the highest increases in trading volume, with growth rates of 748.01% and 584.09% respectively [1] Market Performance - As of market close, the CSI 300 Index (000300) fell by 2.44%, while the average decline for related ETFs was 2.36% [1] - The ETFs with the largest declines included ICBC CSI 300 ETF (510350) and招商CSI 300 Enhanced Strategy ETF (561990), which dropped by 2.57% and 2.55% respectively [1] Detailed Trading Data - A detailed table of trading volumes and changes for various ETFs is provided, showing significant increases in trading volumes across multiple funds, with notable performances from several ETFs [1][2]