1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - SH2509 is expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, with the range estimated around 2220 - 2320. Supply pressure is high in the medium - to - long - term, and there is still room for the caustic soda spot price to decline, while the futures price is undervalued below 2200 but lacks positive drivers for a rebound [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda is 2272 yuan/ton. The futures open interest is 293,284 lots, a decrease of 4,497 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is 15,116 lots, a decrease of 23,262 lots. The futures trading volume is 508,464 lots, a decrease of 145,252 lots. The closing price of the January contract is 2266 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the May contract is 2329 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it is 930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2438 yuan/ton, a decrease of 93 yuan/ton. The basis of caustic soda is 166 yuan/ton, a decrease of 109 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal is 635 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 25 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is - 50 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,080 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of alumina is 3140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. From June 13th to 19th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 81.2%, a week - on - week increase of 0.3%. As of June 19th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 366,500 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 9.57% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.63% [1]. 3.6 Market Analysis - The SH2509 contract rose 0.31% to close at 2272 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the caustic soda capacity utilization rate increased by 0.3% to 81.2% last week, with little change from the previous period. On the demand side, alumina is still in the resumption stage; for non - aluminum sectors, the operating rate of viscose staple fiber increased by 0.24% week - on - week to 80.80%, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing decreased by 0.64% week - on - week to 60.73%. In terms of inventory, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 5.63% week - on - week to 365,600 tons, at a moderately high level during the same period. This week, Dongying Huatai's 750,000 - ton device is under maintenance, and some devices are planned to restart, so the capacity utilization rate may decline. There are many caustic soda production devices to be put into operation from June to July, resulting in high medium - to - long - term supply pressure. The delivery volume of the main contract remains high; the non - aluminum off - season has weak rigid demand and resistance to high prices. In terms of cost, the downstream demand for steam coal has improved recently, but the price increase lacks a sustainable driving force, and the power cost support of self - supplied power plants is limited. The profit of chlor - alkali is acceptable, and there is still room for the caustic soda spot price to decline; the futures price is at a discount, and the valuation is low below 2200, but there is a lack of positive drivers for a rebound [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina industry's profit has recovered, with an increasing number of restarted production facilities, which is expected to boost the demand for caustic soda. However, some non - aluminum industries have entered the off - season, with cautious purchasing and mainly for rigid demand. Industry maintenance and alumina stockpiling support the spot price, but the commissioning of new caustic soda plants from June to July and the uncertainty of downstream stockpiling demand bring an expectation of weakening supply - demand in the future. The price of near - month contracts is stronger than that of far - month contracts. The current main contract is at a low level with a high basis, so short - selling is not advisable [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda is 2371 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan; the futures holding volume is 213,841 lots, up 37,370 lots; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures is - 25,227 lots, down 10,548 lots; the futures trading volume is 360,954 lots, down 275,199 lots. The closing price of the January contract is 2271 yuan/ton, down 87 yuan; the closing price of the May contract is 2330 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ionic membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 880 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is 950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong is 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of caustic soda is 379 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal is 655 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 49.5 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is - 125 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,360 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina is 3260 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From May 23rd to 29th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.1%, a week - on - week increase of 1.6%. The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 392,600 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 2.08% and a year - on - year increase of 10.22% [3]. 3.7 Supply and Demand Analysis - The capacity utilization rate of caustic soda last week increased by 1.6% week - on - week to 84.1%. On the demand side, the alumina operating rate increased by 1.43% week - on - week to 79.53%; the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 0.3% week - on - week to 80.6%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 0.55% week - on - week to 62.68%. The inventory of liquid caustic soda plants last week decreased by 2.08% week - on - week to 392,600 tons, which is at a relatively high level in the same period [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The short - term SH2509 is expected to show a volatile trend, with support around 2410 and resistance around 2500 [3]. - The alumina industry's profit has recovered, but the current scale of resumption of production is not obvious. Some non - aluminum industries are in the off - season, and the non - aluminum downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, with limited caustic soda consumption [3]. - The profit of the chlor - alkali industry is considerable, which drives the increase in supply. The capacity utilization rate is expected to increase this week, but the large amount of maintenance capacity in June may partially relieve the supply pressure [3]. 3) Summary by Directory Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda is 2456 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 7 yuan/ton; the futures trading volume is 341,091 lots, with a decrease of 146,848 lots; the futures position is 198,892 lots, with an increase of 1239 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 13,473 lots, with an increase of 7506 lots [3]. - The closing price of the January contract is 2363 yuan/ton, a decrease of 31 yuan/ton; the closing price of the May contract is 2408 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton [3]. Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 880 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu is 950 yuan/ton, both unchanged [3]. - The converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis is 294 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton [3]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 210 yuan/ton, and in the Northwest is 220 yuan/ton, both unchanged; the price of steam coal is 659 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 150 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu is - 100 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton [3]. Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,360 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina is 3260 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [3]. Industry News - From May 16th to 22nd, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.1%, a week - on - week increase of 1.5% [3]. - As of May 22nd, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 400,900 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 3.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.25% [3]. Viewpoint Summary - The alumina industry's profit has recovered, but the resumption of production scale is not obvious; some non - aluminum industries are in the off - season, and the non - aluminum downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, with limited caustic soda consumption [3]. - The profit of the chlor - alkali industry is considerable, driving an increase in supply. Some devices in North and East China are planned to increase production this week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase. There will be more maintenance capacity in June, which may partially relieve the supply pressure [3]. - The liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 3.59% week - on - week to 400,900 tons, which is at a relatively high level in the same period [3]. - In the short term, SH2509 is expected to fluctuate, with support around 2410 and resistance around 2500 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The SH2509 contract of caustic soda is expected to show a volatile trend in the short term, with support around 2410 and resistance around 2520 [3]. - The profit of the chlor - alkali industry is considerable, driving an increase in supply. Some plants in North and East China plan to increase production this week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise month - on - month [3]. - The profit of the alumina industry has recovered, but the scale of resumption of production is not yet obvious. The supply contraction of Guinea ore restricts the increase in the alumina开工率 and increases the unit consumption of caustic soda, which has no obvious positive or negative impact on caustic soda in the short term [3]. - Some non - aluminum industries are entering the off - season, with limited caustic soda consumption demand, and non - aluminum downstream demand is mainly based on rigid needs [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda futures contract was 2449 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37 yuan; the trading volume was 487,939 lots, an increase of 70,069 lots; the open interest was 197,653 lots, an increase of 5,440 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 futures traders was - 20,979 lots, a decrease of 10,607 lots [3]. - The closing price of the January caustic soda futures contract was 2394 yuan/ton, a decrease of 62 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 2441 yuan/ton, a decrease of 59 yuan [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 880 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 950 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2750 yuan/ton, an increase of 62 yuan; the basis was 301 yuan/ton, an increase of 99 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 220 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The price of steam coal was 659 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 200 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was - 125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,360 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 3250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 86 yuan [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From May 16th to 22nd, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more was 84.1%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5% [3]. - As of May 22nd, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more nationwide was 400,900 tons (wet weight), a month - on - month decrease of 3.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.25% [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - SH2509 fell 1.24% to close at 2,545 yuan/ton. The supply side saw a week - on - week decrease of 1.3% in caustic soda capacity utilization to 82.6%. The demand side had the alumina开工率 drop 0.29% week - on - week to 75.47%, viscose staple fiber开工率 down 0.35% to 80.65%, and printing and dyeing开工率 up 2.55% to 63.23%. Last week, liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased 7.08% week - on - week to 415,900 tons, with high inventory pressure. The 720,000 - ton Shanghai Chlor - Alkali plant shut down recently, expected to be under maintenance for about 30 days, relieving spot supply pressure. The alumina production cut scale expanded, running capacity remained low, and industry profits started to recover. The tariff reduction benefits non - aluminum terminal exports like clothing, but non - aluminum demand is currently average, with only rigid procurement and some downstream resistance to high prices. SH2509 has support around 2,500 and resistance around 2,630 [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda decreased by 41 yuan/ton to 2,545 yuan/ton; the futures position increased by 14,213 hands to 200,894 hands; the net position of the top 20 futures decreased by 10,050 hands to - 22,650 hands; the futures trading volume decreased by 447,265 hands to 614,716 hands. The closing price of the January contract decreased by 52 yuan/ton to 2,507 yuan/ton, and the May contract remained at 2,546 yuan/ton [2]. Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 840 yuan/ton with no change, and in Jiangsu was 950 yuan/ton with no change. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2,625 yuan/ton with no change, and the basis was 80 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton with no change, and in the Northwest was 220 yuan/ton with no change. The price of steam coal decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 665 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 150 yuan/ton with no change, and in Jiangsu was - 70 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,360 yuan/ton with no change, and the spot price of alumina was 3,000 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. From May 9th to 15th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.3%. As of May 15th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 415,900 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 7.09% and a year - on - year increase of 1.74% [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - SH2509 is expected to fluctuate weakly, with support around 2400 yuan/ton. This week, the 300,000 - ton production capacity of Bohua will resume production, and the impact of the previously restarted devices will expand, which is expected to drive the capacity utilization rate to rise month - on - month. The alumina consumption of caustic soda is expected to continue to decline, non - aluminum downstream restocking is ending, and there is resistance to high prices. During the National Day, some downstream factories will be on holiday and shut down, and the caustic soda inventory is under the pressure of accumulation. Some enterprises may reduce prices to sell goods before the festival [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda is 2441 yuan/ton, the futures holding volume is 203,146 lots (a decrease of 13,391 lots), the net holding volume of the top 20 futures is - 22,410 lots, the futures trading volume is 323,072 lots (a decrease of 166,542 lots), the closing price of the January contract is 2433 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the May contract is 2401 yuan/ton [3] 2. Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 780 yuan/ton, in Jiangsu is 950 yuan/ton, the converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong is 2438 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 3 yuan/ton (a decrease of 95 yuan/ton) [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 240 yuan/ton, in the Northwest is 220 yuan/ton, and the price of steam coal is 679 yuan/ton [3] 4. Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 400 yuan/ton, in Jiangsu is 150 yuan/ton (a decrease of 75 yuan/ton) [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,460 yuan/ton, and the spot price of alumina is 2860 yuan/ton [3] 6. Industry News - From April 18th to 24th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. As of April 24th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 408,500 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month decrease of 3.02% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.77% [3] 7. Viewpoint Summary - Last week, the national chlor - alkali device had both maintenance and capacity increase, the capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.2% to 82.1%. The domestic alumina start - up rate continued to decline, the viscose staple fiber start - up rate decreased by 1.05% to 77.17%, and the printing and dyeing start - up rate decreased by 1.89% to 60.06%. The liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 3.02% to 408,500 tons last week, still at a relatively high level in the same period. This week, the 300,000 - ton production capacity of Bohua will resume production, and the alumina consumption of caustic soda is expected to continue to decline. The non - aluminum downstream restocking is ending, and there is resistance to high prices. During the National Day, some downstream factories will be on holiday and shut down, and the liquid caustic soda inventory is under the pressure of accumulation, and some enterprises may reduce prices to sell goods before the festival [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The supply side saw a co - existence of maintenance and capacity increase in national chlor - alkali plants last week, with the capacity utilization rate dropping 1.6% to 82.3%. The demand side witnessed a decline in the domestic alumina start - up rate to 78.54%, a 5.39% drop in the viscose staple fiber start - up rate to 78.22%, and a 2.44% drop in the printing and dyeing start - up rate to 61.94%. The liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased 10.84% to 42.02 tons last week. This week, the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise slightly due to the resumption of maintenance devices in North China. The caustic consumption of domestic alumina enterprises is expected to decline continuously as their production cuts become more concentrated. Non - aluminum enterprises' pre - May Day stocking drives a temporary improvement in supply - demand, but its sustainability is doubtful. In the medium - to - long - term, supply - demand has not improved, and there may be a continuous callback in future prices. The main contract of caustic soda is about to switch to the 09 contract, with support levels at around 2330 for SH2505 and 2420 for SH2509 [3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda was 2430 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan; the futures holding volume was 212,082 lots, down 3,213 lots; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures was - 5,421 lots, down 1,793 lots; the futures trading volume was 520,056 lots, up 99,834 lots; the closing price of the January contract was 2478 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 2430 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan [3]. Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 830 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2594 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; the basis of caustic soda was 164 yuan/ton, up 63 yuan [3]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 240 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal was 680 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 200 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was - 250 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [3]. Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,480 yuan/ton, and the spot price of alumina was 2,840 yuan/ton, both unchanged [3]. Industry News - From April 11th to 17th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.3%, a 1.6% week - on - week decrease. As of April 17th, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 420,200 tons (wet tons), a 10.84% week - on - week decrease and a 12.22% year - on - year decrease [3].

| 烧碱产业日报 | 2025-04-16 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 主力收盘价:烧碱(日,元/吨) | -11 期货持仓量:烧碱(日,手) | 2414 | 238087 | -1686 | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -4400 期货成交量:烧碱(日,手) | -7580 | 329831 | -104242 | 期货市场 | 合约收盘价:烧碱:1月(日,元/吨) | -33 合约收盘价:烧碱:5月(日,元/吨) | 2465 | 2414 | -11 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -7580 | -4400 | 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):山东地区(日,元/吨) | 10 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):江苏地区(日,元/吨) | 780 | 950 | 0 | | | | | | 现货市场 | 山东地区32%烧碱折百价(日,元/ ...