Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The short - term SH2509 is expected to show a volatile trend, with support around 2410 and resistance around 2500 [3]. - The alumina industry's profit has recovered, but the current scale of resumption of production is not obvious. Some non - aluminum industries are in the off - season, and the non - aluminum downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, with limited caustic soda consumption [3]. - The profit of the chlor - alkali industry is considerable, which drives the increase in supply. The capacity utilization rate is expected to increase this week, but the large amount of maintenance capacity in June may partially relieve the supply pressure [3]. 3) Summary by Directory Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda is 2456 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 7 yuan/ton; the futures trading volume is 341,091 lots, with a decrease of 146,848 lots; the futures position is 198,892 lots, with an increase of 1239 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 13,473 lots, with an increase of 7506 lots [3]. - The closing price of the January contract is 2363 yuan/ton, a decrease of 31 yuan/ton; the closing price of the May contract is 2408 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton [3]. Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 880 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu is 950 yuan/ton, both unchanged [3]. - The converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis is 294 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton [3]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 210 yuan/ton, and in the Northwest is 220 yuan/ton, both unchanged; the price of steam coal is 659 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 150 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu is - 100 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton [3]. Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,360 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina is 3260 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [3]. Industry News - From May 16th to 22nd, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.1%, a week - on - week increase of 1.5% [3]. - As of May 22nd, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 400,900 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 3.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.25% [3]. Viewpoint Summary - The alumina industry's profit has recovered, but the resumption of production scale is not obvious; some non - aluminum industries are in the off - season, and the non - aluminum downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, with limited caustic soda consumption [3]. - The profit of the chlor - alkali industry is considerable, driving an increase in supply. Some devices in North and East China are planned to increase production this week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase. There will be more maintenance capacity in June, which may partially relieve the supply pressure [3]. - The liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 3.59% week - on - week to 400,900 tons, which is at a relatively high level in the same period [3]. - In the short term, SH2509 is expected to fluctuate, with support around 2410 and resistance around 2500 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The SH2509 contract of caustic soda is expected to show a volatile trend in the short term, with support around 2410 and resistance around 2520 [3]. - The profit of the chlor - alkali industry is considerable, driving an increase in supply. Some plants in North and East China plan to increase production this week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise month - on - month [3]. - The profit of the alumina industry has recovered, but the scale of resumption of production is not yet obvious. The supply contraction of Guinea ore restricts the increase in the alumina开工率 and increases the unit consumption of caustic soda, which has no obvious positive or negative impact on caustic soda in the short term [3]. - Some non - aluminum industries are entering the off - season, with limited caustic soda consumption demand, and non - aluminum downstream demand is mainly based on rigid needs [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda futures contract was 2449 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37 yuan; the trading volume was 487,939 lots, an increase of 70,069 lots; the open interest was 197,653 lots, an increase of 5,440 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 futures traders was - 20,979 lots, a decrease of 10,607 lots [3]. - The closing price of the January caustic soda futures contract was 2394 yuan/ton, a decrease of 62 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 2441 yuan/ton, a decrease of 59 yuan [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 880 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 950 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2750 yuan/ton, an increase of 62 yuan; the basis was 301 yuan/ton, an increase of 99 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 220 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The price of steam coal was 659 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 200 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was - 125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,360 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 3250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 86 yuan [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From May 16th to 22nd, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more was 84.1%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5% [3]. - As of May 22nd, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more nationwide was 400,900 tons (wet weight), a month - on - month decrease of 3.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.25% [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - SH2509 fell 1.24% to close at 2,545 yuan/ton. The supply side saw a week - on - week decrease of 1.3% in caustic soda capacity utilization to 82.6%. The demand side had the alumina开工率 drop 0.29% week - on - week to 75.47%, viscose staple fiber开工率 down 0.35% to 80.65%, and printing and dyeing开工率 up 2.55% to 63.23%. Last week, liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased 7.08% week - on - week to 415,900 tons, with high inventory pressure. The 720,000 - ton Shanghai Chlor - Alkali plant shut down recently, expected to be under maintenance for about 30 days, relieving spot supply pressure. The alumina production cut scale expanded, running capacity remained low, and industry profits started to recover. The tariff reduction benefits non - aluminum terminal exports like clothing, but non - aluminum demand is currently average, with only rigid procurement and some downstream resistance to high prices. SH2509 has support around 2,500 and resistance around 2,630 [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda decreased by 41 yuan/ton to 2,545 yuan/ton; the futures position increased by 14,213 hands to 200,894 hands; the net position of the top 20 futures decreased by 10,050 hands to - 22,650 hands; the futures trading volume decreased by 447,265 hands to 614,716 hands. The closing price of the January contract decreased by 52 yuan/ton to 2,507 yuan/ton, and the May contract remained at 2,546 yuan/ton [2]. Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 840 yuan/ton with no change, and in Jiangsu was 950 yuan/ton with no change. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2,625 yuan/ton with no change, and the basis was 80 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton with no change, and in the Northwest was 220 yuan/ton with no change. The price of steam coal decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 665 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 150 yuan/ton with no change, and in Jiangsu was - 70 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,360 yuan/ton with no change, and the spot price of alumina was 3,000 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. From May 9th to 15th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.3%. As of May 15th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 415,900 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 7.09% and a year - on - year increase of 1.74% [2].

| | | 烧碱产业日报 2025-04-28 停工，液碱库存面临累库压力，部分企业或节前降价出货。SH2509预计偏弱震荡，下方关注2400附近支撑 。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:烧碱(日,元/吨) 2 期货持仓量:烧碱(日,手) | 2441 | 203146 | -13391 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) 1878 期货成交量:烧碱(日,手) | -22410 | 323072 | -166542 | | | 合约收盘价:烧碱:1月(日,元/吨) -2 合约收盘价:烧碱:5月(日,元/吨) | 2433 | 2401 | 1 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) 1878 | -22410 | | | | 现货市场 | 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):山东地区(日,元/吨) 0 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):江苏地区(日,元/吨) | 780 | 950 | 0 | | | 山东地区32%烧碱折百价(日,元/吨) 0 基差:烧碱(日,元 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The supply side saw a co - existence of maintenance and capacity increase in national chlor - alkali plants last week, with the capacity utilization rate dropping 1.6% to 82.3%. The demand side witnessed a decline in the domestic alumina start - up rate to 78.54%, a 5.39% drop in the viscose staple fiber start - up rate to 78.22%, and a 2.44% drop in the printing and dyeing start - up rate to 61.94%. The liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased 10.84% to 42.02 tons last week. This week, the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise slightly due to the resumption of maintenance devices in North China. The caustic consumption of domestic alumina enterprises is expected to decline continuously as their production cuts become more concentrated. Non - aluminum enterprises' pre - May Day stocking drives a temporary improvement in supply - demand, but its sustainability is doubtful. In the medium - to - long - term, supply - demand has not improved, and there may be a continuous callback in future prices. The main contract of caustic soda is about to switch to the 09 contract, with support levels at around 2330 for SH2505 and 2420 for SH2509 [3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda was 2430 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan; the futures holding volume was 212,082 lots, down 3,213 lots; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures was - 5,421 lots, down 1,793 lots; the futures trading volume was 520,056 lots, up 99,834 lots; the closing price of the January contract was 2478 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 2430 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan [3]. Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 830 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2594 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; the basis of caustic soda was 164 yuan/ton, up 63 yuan [3]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 240 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal was 680 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 200 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was - 250 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [3]. Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,480 yuan/ton, and the spot price of alumina was 2,840 yuan/ton, both unchanged [3]. Industry News - From April 11th to 17th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.3%, a 1.6% week - on - week decrease. As of April 17th, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 420,200 tons (wet tons), a 10.84% week - on - week decrease and a 12.22% year - on - year decrease [3].

| 烧碱产业日报 | 2025-04-16 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 主力收盘价:烧碱(日,元/吨) | -11 期货持仓量:烧碱(日,手) | 2414 | 238087 | -1686 | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -4400 期货成交量:烧碱(日,手) | -7580 | 329831 | -104242 | 期货市场 | 合约收盘价:烧碱:1月(日,元/吨) | -33 合约收盘价:烧碱:5月(日,元/吨) | 2465 | 2414 | -11 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -7580 | -4400 | 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):山东地区(日,元/吨) | 10 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):江苏地区(日,元/吨) | 780 | 950 | 0 | | | | | | 现货市场 | 山东地区32%烧碱折百价(日,元/ ...