1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - SH2509 oscillated weakly and closed at 2,512 yuan/ton. The supply - side saw new device maintenance in Central and East China last week, with a slight change in caustic soda capacity utilization rate to 80.4%. The demand - side showed an increase in alumina and viscose staple fiber开工率, while a decrease in printing and dyeing开工率. The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories decreased last week. In July, the planned maintenance capacity of caustic soda decreased, but the caustic soda start - up rate was restricted due to the backlog of liquid chlorine. This week, with frequent stop - and - restart of devices, the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise slightly. Affected by losses, the delivery volume of Shandong alkali plants to alumina enterprises decreased. Non - aluminum off - season demand is weak, and downstream purchases are mainly for rigid needs. In the short term, low profits and limited downstream demand are the core contradictions. Recently, the non - aluminum purchasing enthusiasm has increased, and the spot price may remain firm. For futures, pay attention to the pressure around 2,600 yuan/ton for SH2509 [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda was 2,512 yuan/ton, the futures holding volume was 246,154 hands (an increase of 8,176 hands), the net holding volume of the top 20 futures was - 4,705 hands (a decrease of 2,591 hands), the trading volume was 519,094 hands (a decrease of 355,050 hands). The closing price of the January contract was 2,500 yuan/ton (a decrease of 9 yuan/ton), and the closing price of the May contract was 2,558 yuan/ton (a decrease of 6 yuan/ton) [1] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 840 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu was 910 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2,625 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis was 113 yuan/ton (an increase of 20 yuan/ton) [1] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton, and in the Northwest was 220 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The price of thermal coal was 636 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 300 yuan/ton (an increase of 250 yuan/ton), and in Jiangsu was - 49.5 yuan/ton (an increase of 125.5 yuan/ton) [1] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,020 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the spot price of alumina was 3,150 yuan/ton (an increase of 10 yuan/ton) [1] 3.6 Industry News - From July 4th to 10th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 80.4%, a decrease of 0.1% from the previous week. As of July 10th, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 374,300 tons (wet tons), a decrease of 2.58% from the previous week and an increase of 2.64% year - on - year [1] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The alumina开工率 increased by 1.72% to 83.28% last week, with an average profit of 300.3 yuan/ton. The viscose staple fiber开工率 increased by 2.63% to 77.80%, and the printing and dyeing开工率 decreased by 1.29% to 59.9%. The liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 2.58% to 374,300 tons last week. The planned maintenance capacity of caustic soda in July decreased, but the start - up rate was restricted. This week, the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise slightly. Affected by losses, the delivery volume of Shandong alkali plants to alumina enterprises decreased. Non - aluminum off - season demand is weak, and downstream purchases are mainly for rigid needs. Recently, non - aluminum purchasing enthusiasm has increased, and the spot price may remain firm [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current core contradiction is the low profit and limited downstream demand. In the short - term, the spot price may remain firm due to the increased non - aluminum procurement enthusiasm, and for the futures, attention should be paid to the pressure around 2600 for SH2509 [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda is 2532 yuan/ton, the futures trading volume is 874144 hands with an increase of 283841 hands, and the futures open interest is 237978 hands with a decrease of 14539 hands. The closing prices of the January and May contracts are 2509 yuan/ton and 2564 yuan/ton respectively, and the latter increased by 28 yuan/ton. The net position of the top 20 futures decreased from - 8629 hands to - 2114 hands [1] 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong and Jiangsu regions are 840 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively. The converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong region is 2625 yuan/ton, and the basis is 93 yuan/ton with an increase of 26 yuan/ton [1] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream prices of raw salt in Shandong and Northwest regions are 210 yuan/ton and 220 yuan/ton respectively, and the price of steam coal is 636 yuan/ton [1] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream prices of liquid chlorine in Shandong and Jiangsu regions are - 550 yuan/ton and - 175 yuan/ton respectively [1] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13020 yuan/ton, and the spot price of alumina is 3140 yuan/ton with an increase of 10 yuan/ton [1] 3.6 Industry News - From July 4th to 10th, the average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China was 80.4%, a decrease of 0.1% compared with the previous week. As of July 10th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 374,300 tons (wet tons), a decrease of 2.58% compared with the previous week and an increase of 2.64% compared with the same period last year [1] 3.7 Supply and Demand Analysis - On the supply side, new plants in Central and East China were under maintenance last week, while the load of some plants in South and North China increased, and the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda decreased by 0.1% to 80.4%. On the demand side, the alumina operating rate increased by 1.72% to 83.28%, with an average profit of 300.3 yuan/ton; the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 2.63% to 77.80%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 1.29% to 59.9% [1] 3.8 Inventory Situation - Last week, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 2.58% to 374,300 tons, with little inventory pressure [1] 3.9 Outlook - The planned maintenance capacity of caustic soda in July has decreased, but due to the concentrated maintenance of PVC downstream of liquid chlorine, the backlog of liquid chlorine has led to a deep price inversion and dragged down the chlor - alkali profit, thus restricting the increase in the caustic soda operating rate. This week, there are many plant shutdowns and restarts, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly. Affected by losses, the delivery volume of Shandong alkali plants to alumina enterprises has decreased. The non - aluminum demand is weak in the off - season, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase based on rigid demand [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, SH2509 is expected to fluctuate within a range. Technically, attention should be paid to the support around 2340 and the resistance around 2400. The rebound sustainability of the 09 contract is questionable due to the lack of fundamental positives, but the downside space of the futures price is limited as it is close to the cost below 2200. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the caustic soda industry will increase as there are many caustic soda production units scheduled to be put into operation from June to July, and the caustic soda spot market still faces significant pressure with limited demand [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda futures contract is 2319 yuan/ton, with no change. The trading volume is 614,345 lots, a decrease of 66,487 lots; the open interest is 269,237 lots, an increase of 12 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures brokers is - 24,910 lots, a decrease of 1,698 lots. The closing prices of the January and May caustic soda contracts are 2324 yuan/ton and 2383 yuan/ton respectively, with the May contract up 3 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 780 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu is 930 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong is 2437.5 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis is 119 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 210 yuan/ton, and in the Northwest is 220 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The price of thermal coal is 635 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 50.5 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu is - 175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,020 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina is 3080 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From June 20th to 26th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.5%, a 1.3% increase from the previous period. As of June 26th, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 390,400 tons (wet tons), a 6.51% increase from the previous period and a 10.40% increase year - on - year [3]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - Supply side: Last week, some enterprises' caustic soda production facilities were shut down for maintenance while others restarted, with the capacity utilization rate rising to 82.5%. This week, three sets of facilities in the Northwest and East China are planned to shut down, and three sets in North China are planned to restart, with the capacity utilization rate expected to rise slightly. There are many caustic soda production units scheduled to be put into operation from June to July, increasing the long - term supply pressure of the industry. - Demand side: Last week, the operating rates of alumina, viscose staple fiber, and printing and dyeing industries all declined. The alumina price and profit slightly decreased, and the growth of its operating rate stagnated. The demand from non - aluminum industries is weak during the off - season, and there is resistance to high prices. - Inventory side: Last week, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories increased by 6.51% to 390,400 tons, at a neutral - to - high level in the same period [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report SH2509 rose 0.09% to close at 2,279 yuan/ton. The supply - side capacity utilization increased slightly last week. The demand - side shows alumina in the resumption stage, and non - aluminum demand has mixed trends. The inventory is at a neutral - high level. With some device overhauls and restarts, the capacity utilization may decline. There is high medium - long - term supply pressure. The cost support is limited, and the caustic soda spot has room to fall. The futures price is at a discount, with low valuation below 2,200 but lacking upward - driving factors. SH2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2,220 - 2,320 in the short term [3][4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda was 2,279 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the futures holding volume was 290,686 lots, up 6,414 lots; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures was - 28,554 lots, up 1,200 lots; the futures trading volume was 462,028 lots, down 45,735 lots. The closing price of the January contract was 2,273 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan, and the May contract was 2,339 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [3]. 现货市场 - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 780 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 930 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2,437.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 159 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal was 635 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 产业情况 - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 0 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was - 100 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [3]. 下游情况 - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was down 60 yuan/ton, and the spot price of alumina was 3,120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [3]. 行业消息 - From June 13th to 19th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 81.2%, up 0.3% week - on - week. As of June 19th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 366,500 tons [3]. 观点总结 - The supply - side capacity utilization increased 0.3% to 81.2% last week. The demand - side shows alumina in the resumption stage. Non - aluminum demand: the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased 0.24% to 80.80%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased 0.64% to 60.73%. The liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased 5.63% to 365,600 tons, at a neutral - high level. Dongying Huatai's 750,000 - ton device will be shut down for maintenance this week, and some devices are planned to restart, so the capacity utilization may decline. There are many new caustic soda production devices from June to July, with high medium - long - term supply pressure. The cost support is limited, the caustic soda spot has room to fall, the futures price is at a discount, and SH2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2,220 - 2,320 in the short term [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - SH2509 is expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, with the range estimated around 2220 - 2320. Supply pressure is high in the medium - to - long - term, and there is still room for the caustic soda spot price to decline, while the futures price is undervalued below 2200 but lacks positive drivers for a rebound [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda is 2272 yuan/ton. The futures open interest is 293,284 lots, a decrease of 4,497 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is 15,116 lots, a decrease of 23,262 lots. The futures trading volume is 508,464 lots, a decrease of 145,252 lots. The closing price of the January contract is 2266 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the May contract is 2329 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it is 930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2438 yuan/ton, a decrease of 93 yuan/ton. The basis of caustic soda is 166 yuan/ton, a decrease of 109 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal is 635 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 25 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is - 50 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,080 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of alumina is 3140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. From June 13th to 19th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 81.2%, a week - on - week increase of 0.3%. As of June 19th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 366,500 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 9.57% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.63% [1]. 3.6 Market Analysis - The SH2509 contract rose 0.31% to close at 2272 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the caustic soda capacity utilization rate increased by 0.3% to 81.2% last week, with little change from the previous period. On the demand side, alumina is still in the resumption stage; for non - aluminum sectors, the operating rate of viscose staple fiber increased by 0.24% week - on - week to 80.80%, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing decreased by 0.64% week - on - week to 60.73%. In terms of inventory, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 5.63% week - on - week to 365,600 tons, at a moderately high level during the same period. This week, Dongying Huatai's 750,000 - ton device is under maintenance, and some devices are planned to restart, so the capacity utilization rate may decline. There are many caustic soda production devices to be put into operation from June to July, resulting in high medium - to - long - term supply pressure. The delivery volume of the main contract remains high; the non - aluminum off - season has weak rigid demand and resistance to high prices. In terms of cost, the downstream demand for steam coal has improved recently, but the price increase lacks a sustainable driving force, and the power cost support of self - supplied power plants is limited. The profit of chlor - alkali is acceptable, and there is still room for the caustic soda spot price to decline; the futures price is at a discount, and the valuation is low below 2200, but there is a lack of positive drivers for a rebound [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina industry's profit has recovered, with an increasing number of restarted production facilities, which is expected to boost the demand for caustic soda. However, some non - aluminum industries have entered the off - season, with cautious purchasing and mainly for rigid demand. Industry maintenance and alumina stockpiling support the spot price, but the commissioning of new caustic soda plants from June to July and the uncertainty of downstream stockpiling demand bring an expectation of weakening supply - demand in the future. The price of near - month contracts is stronger than that of far - month contracts. The current main contract is at a low level with a high basis, so short - selling is not advisable [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda is 2371 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan; the futures holding volume is 213,841 lots, up 37,370 lots; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures is - 25,227 lots, down 10,548 lots; the futures trading volume is 360,954 lots, down 275,199 lots. The closing price of the January contract is 2271 yuan/ton, down 87 yuan; the closing price of the May contract is 2330 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ionic membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 880 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is 950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong is 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of caustic soda is 379 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal is 655 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 49.5 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is - 125 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,360 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina is 3260 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From May 23rd to 29th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.1%, a week - on - week increase of 1.6%. The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 392,600 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 2.08% and a year - on - year increase of 10.22% [3]. 3.7 Supply and Demand Analysis - The capacity utilization rate of caustic soda last week increased by 1.6% week - on - week to 84.1%. On the demand side, the alumina operating rate increased by 1.43% week - on - week to 79.53%; the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 0.3% week - on - week to 80.6%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 0.55% week - on - week to 62.68%. The inventory of liquid caustic soda plants last week decreased by 2.08% week - on - week to 392,600 tons, which is at a relatively high level in the same period [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The short - term SH2509 is expected to show a volatile trend, with support around 2410 and resistance around 2500 [3]. - The alumina industry's profit has recovered, but the current scale of resumption of production is not obvious. Some non - aluminum industries are in the off - season, and the non - aluminum downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, with limited caustic soda consumption [3]. - The profit of the chlor - alkali industry is considerable, which drives the increase in supply. The capacity utilization rate is expected to increase this week, but the large amount of maintenance capacity in June may partially relieve the supply pressure [3]. 3) Summary by Directory Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda is 2456 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 7 yuan/ton; the futures trading volume is 341,091 lots, with a decrease of 146,848 lots; the futures position is 198,892 lots, with an increase of 1239 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 13,473 lots, with an increase of 7506 lots [3]. - The closing price of the January contract is 2363 yuan/ton, a decrease of 31 yuan/ton; the closing price of the May contract is 2408 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton [3]. Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 880 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu is 950 yuan/ton, both unchanged [3]. - The converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis is 294 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton [3]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 210 yuan/ton, and in the Northwest is 220 yuan/ton, both unchanged; the price of steam coal is 659 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 150 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu is - 100 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton [3]. Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,360 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina is 3260 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [3]. Industry News - From May 16th to 22nd, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.1%, a week - on - week increase of 1.5% [3]. - As of May 22nd, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 400,900 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 3.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.25% [3]. Viewpoint Summary - The alumina industry's profit has recovered, but the resumption of production scale is not obvious; some non - aluminum industries are in the off - season, and the non - aluminum downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, with limited caustic soda consumption [3]. - The profit of the chlor - alkali industry is considerable, driving an increase in supply. Some devices in North and East China are planned to increase production this week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase. There will be more maintenance capacity in June, which may partially relieve the supply pressure [3]. - The liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 3.59% week - on - week to 400,900 tons, which is at a relatively high level in the same period [3]. - In the short term, SH2509 is expected to fluctuate, with support around 2410 and resistance around 2500 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The SH2509 contract of caustic soda is expected to show a volatile trend in the short term, with support around 2410 and resistance around 2520 [3]. - The profit of the chlor - alkali industry is considerable, driving an increase in supply. Some plants in North and East China plan to increase production this week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to rise month - on - month [3]. - The profit of the alumina industry has recovered, but the scale of resumption of production is not yet obvious. The supply contraction of Guinea ore restricts the increase in the alumina开工率 and increases the unit consumption of caustic soda, which has no obvious positive or negative impact on caustic soda in the short term [3]. - Some non - aluminum industries are entering the off - season, with limited caustic soda consumption demand, and non - aluminum downstream demand is mainly based on rigid needs [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda futures contract was 2449 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37 yuan; the trading volume was 487,939 lots, an increase of 70,069 lots; the open interest was 197,653 lots, an increase of 5,440 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 futures traders was - 20,979 lots, a decrease of 10,607 lots [3]. - The closing price of the January caustic soda futures contract was 2394 yuan/ton, a decrease of 62 yuan; the closing price of the May contract was 2441 yuan/ton, a decrease of 59 yuan [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 880 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 950 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2750 yuan/ton, an increase of 62 yuan; the basis was 301 yuan/ton, an increase of 99 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 220 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The price of steam coal was 659 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 200 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was - 125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,360 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 3250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 86 yuan [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From May 16th to 22nd, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more was 84.1%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5% [3]. - As of May 22nd, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more nationwide was 400,900 tons (wet weight), a month - on - month decrease of 3.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.25% [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - SH2509 fell 1.24% to close at 2,545 yuan/ton. The supply side saw a week - on - week decrease of 1.3% in caustic soda capacity utilization to 82.6%. The demand side had the alumina开工率 drop 0.29% week - on - week to 75.47%, viscose staple fiber开工率 down 0.35% to 80.65%, and printing and dyeing开工率 up 2.55% to 63.23%. Last week, liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased 7.08% week - on - week to 415,900 tons, with high inventory pressure. The 720,000 - ton Shanghai Chlor - Alkali plant shut down recently, expected to be under maintenance for about 30 days, relieving spot supply pressure. The alumina production cut scale expanded, running capacity remained low, and industry profits started to recover. The tariff reduction benefits non - aluminum terminal exports like clothing, but non - aluminum demand is currently average, with only rigid procurement and some downstream resistance to high prices. SH2509 has support around 2,500 and resistance around 2,630 [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda decreased by 41 yuan/ton to 2,545 yuan/ton; the futures position increased by 14,213 hands to 200,894 hands; the net position of the top 20 futures decreased by 10,050 hands to - 22,650 hands; the futures trading volume decreased by 447,265 hands to 614,716 hands. The closing price of the January contract decreased by 52 yuan/ton to 2,507 yuan/ton, and the May contract remained at 2,546 yuan/ton [2]. Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 840 yuan/ton with no change, and in Jiangsu was 950 yuan/ton with no change. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2,625 yuan/ton with no change, and the basis was 80 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton with no change, and in the Northwest was 220 yuan/ton with no change. The price of steam coal decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 665 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 150 yuan/ton with no change, and in Jiangsu was - 70 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,360 yuan/ton with no change, and the spot price of alumina was 3,000 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. From May 9th to 15th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.3%. As of May 15th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 415,900 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 7.09% and a year - on - year increase of 1.74% [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - SH2509 is expected to fluctuate weakly, with support around 2400 yuan/ton. This week, the 300,000 - ton production capacity of Bohua will resume production, and the impact of the previously restarted devices will expand, which is expected to drive the capacity utilization rate to rise month - on - month. The alumina consumption of caustic soda is expected to continue to decline, non - aluminum downstream restocking is ending, and there is resistance to high prices. During the National Day, some downstream factories will be on holiday and shut down, and the caustic soda inventory is under the pressure of accumulation. Some enterprises may reduce prices to sell goods before the festival [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda is 2441 yuan/ton, the futures holding volume is 203,146 lots (a decrease of 13,391 lots), the net holding volume of the top 20 futures is - 22,410 lots, the futures trading volume is 323,072 lots (a decrease of 166,542 lots), the closing price of the January contract is 2433 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the May contract is 2401 yuan/ton [3] 2. Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 780 yuan/ton, in Jiangsu is 950 yuan/ton, the converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong is 2438 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 3 yuan/ton (a decrease of 95 yuan/ton) [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 240 yuan/ton, in the Northwest is 220 yuan/ton, and the price of steam coal is 679 yuan/ton [3] 4. Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 400 yuan/ton, in Jiangsu is 150 yuan/ton (a decrease of 75 yuan/ton) [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,460 yuan/ton, and the spot price of alumina is 2860 yuan/ton [3] 6. Industry News - From April 18th to 24th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. As of April 24th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 408,500 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month decrease of 3.02% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.77% [3] 7. Viewpoint Summary - Last week, the national chlor - alkali device had both maintenance and capacity increase, the capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.2% to 82.1%. The domestic alumina start - up rate continued to decline, the viscose staple fiber start - up rate decreased by 1.05% to 77.17%, and the printing and dyeing start - up rate decreased by 1.89% to 60.06%. The liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 3.02% to 408,500 tons last week, still at a relatively high level in the same period. This week, the 300,000 - ton production capacity of Bohua will resume production, and the alumina consumption of caustic soda is expected to continue to decline. The non - aluminum downstream restocking is ending, and there is resistance to high prices. During the National Day, some downstream factories will be on holiday and shut down, and the liquid caustic soda inventory is under the pressure of accumulation, and some enterprises may reduce prices to sell goods before the festival [3]