玉米系产业日报 2025-10-14 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/吨) | 2093 | 1 | 2385 | -16 | | | 玉米月间价差(1-5):(日,元/吨) | -91 | 吨) -5 玉米淀粉月间价差(11-1):(日,元/吨) | -16 | -15 | | 期货市场 | 期货持仓量(活跃合约):黄玉米(日,手) | 479322 | -72733 期货持仓量(活跃合约):玉米淀粉(日,手) | 112293 | -16434 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米(日,手) | -32877 | 6034 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米淀粉(日, | -39912 | -2972 | | | 注册仓单量:黄玉米(日,手) | 36709 | 手) 0 注册仓单量:玉米淀粉(日,手) | 12938 | -44 | | | 主力合约CS-C价差(日,元/吨) | 335 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - As the U.S. corn harvest progresses, supply pressure will gradually increase, putting continued downward pressure on U.S. corn prices. In the domestic market, the supply pressure of raw corn increases with the gradual increase in the listing volume of new - season corn, leading to a weakening of the overall price. The cost support for corn starch declines accordingly. The downstream demand for corn starch is also affected by factors such as industry shutdowns during holidays, high inventory, and substitution by other starches, resulting in a bearish outlook for the starch market. [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2092 yuan/ton, with a change of - 31 yuan/ton; corn monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 7 yuan/ton; corn starch monthly spread (11 - 1) is - 86 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1 yuan/ton. - Futures holdings (active contract): yellow corn decreased by 39308 hands, and corn starch increased by 128727 hands to 552055 hands. - The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn are - 38911 hands, with a change of - 36940 hands; for corn starch, it is - 8137 hands, with a change of 959 hands. - Registered warehouse receipts: 14009 hands for yellow corn, an increase of 12982 hands; 36709 hands for corn starch, an increase of 4954 hands. - The spread between the main CS - C contracts is 347 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1 yuan/ton. [2] 3.2 Outer - Market - The closing price of CBOT corn futures (active contract) is - 5 cents per bushel. - CBOT corn total weekly positions are 413.5 million, an increase of 13269. - The non - commercial net long positions of CBOT corn are - 51186 hands, a decrease of 15017 hands. [2] 3.3 Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2294.31 yuan/ton, with a change of - 9.81 yuan/ton. - Factory quotes for corn starch: 2510 yuan/ton in Changchun, 2750 yuan/ton in Weifang, and 2680 yuan/ton in Shijiazhuang, all unchanged. - The CIF price of imported corn is 2.63 yuan/ton, and the international freight is 0 dollars/ton. - The basis of the corn starch main contract is 44, with a change of 109; the basis of the corn main contract is NAN. - The spread between Shandong starch and corn is 202.31 yuan/ton, with a change of 86 yuan/ton; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 2448.44 yuan/ton, with a change of 3 yuan/ton; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is 154.13 yuan/ton, with a change of - 6 yuan/ton. [2] 3.4 Upstream Situation - Forecasted planting areas (in million hectares): 35.89 million in the United States, 22.6 million in Brazil, 7.5 million in Argentina, 44.3 million in China. - Forecasted corn production (in million tons): 425.26 million in the United States, 131 million in Brazil, 53 million in Argentina, 295 million in China, and 32 million in Ukraine. [2] 3.5 Industry Situation - Corn inventory: 250,000 tons in northern ports, a decrease of 118,000 tons in southern ports. - Starch enterprise weekly inventory is 115,000 tons, with a change of 4300 tons. - Monthly import volume of corn is - 100,000 tons; monthly export volume of corn starch is 6000 tons, an increase of 1440 tons. - Monthly feed production is 999,000 tons. [2] 3.6 Downstream Situation - Corn starch processing profit: 2927.2 yuan/ton in Shandong, with a change of 19 yuan/ton; 24.49 yuan/ton in Hebei, with a change of 10 yuan/ton; 119.27 yuan/ton in Jilin, with a change of - 10 yuan/ton. - Alcohol enterprise operating rate is 3.49%; starch enterprise operating rate is 54.96%, with an increase of 2.36 percentage points. [2] 3.7 Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of corn is - 0.45%; the historical 60 - day volatility is 9.68%, with a change of 0.06 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is - 0.86%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 11.97%, with a change of - 0.86 percentage points. [2] 3.8 Industry News - As of October 8, Argentina's 2025/26 corn planting area accounted for 25.6% of the total expected area (7.8 million hectares), 5.8% higher than a week ago and 7.9% ahead of the same period last year. - As of October 9, 2025, Russia had harvested 131 million tons of grain, with a harvest progress close to 90%. [2] 3.9 Key Concerns - Thursday and Friday's mysteel corn weekly consumption, as well as the operating and inventory conditions of starch enterprises. [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - For corn, as the new - season corn is gradually coming onto the market, it still restricts the futures price. A bearish view is maintained, and it is recommended to hold no positions during the holiday [2][3] - For corn starch, although there was a slight rebound at low levels recently, the demand support is insufficient. A bearish view is also maintained, and it is recommended to hold no positions during the holiday [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2468 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton; corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2143 yuan/ton, down 73 yuan/ton [2] - Futures positions of active contracts: 596123 hands for yellow corn, down 44063 hands; 150741 hands for corn starch, down 13614 hands [2] - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: - 30523 hands for corn, up 29 hands; - 37380 hands for corn starch, up 29 hands [2] - Registered warehouse receipts: 21549 hands for yellow corn, unchanged; 8028 hands for corn starch, down 161 hands [2] - The CS - C spread of the main contract is 358 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.2 Outer - market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 421.5 cents/bushel, unchanged; CBOT corn total positions (weekly) are 1543065 contracts, up 13269 contracts [2] - CBOT corn non - commercial net long positions (weekly) are 15017 contracts, down 51186 contracts [2] 3.3 Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2368.63 yuan/ton, down 0.98 yuan/ton; the factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun is 2560 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The FOB price of corn in Jinzhou Port is 2240 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the factory - quoted price of corn starch in Weifang is 2800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The CIF price of imported corn is 1943.7 yuan/ton, down 3.51 yuan/ton; the factory - quoted price of corn starch in Shijiazhuang is 2730 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Upstream Situation - Forecasted sown areas: 425.26 million hectares for the US, 35.89 million hectares for Brazil, 22.6 million hectares for Argentina, 44.3 million hectares for China [2] - Forecasted yields: 168.14 billion bushels for the US in 2025/26, 131 million tons for Brazil, 53 million tons for Argentina, 295 million tons for China, 32 million tons for Ukraine (up 1.5 million tons) [2] - Corn inventories: 37.5 million tons in southern ports (down 22.6 million tons), 80 million tons in northern ports (down 7 million tons); deep - processing corn inventories are 211.8 million tons, down 22.2 million tons [2] 3.5 Industry Situation - Import volume of corn is 6 million tons, down 10 million tons; export volume of corn starch is 15.94 thousand tons, up 1.44 thousand tons [2] - Feed production is 2927.2 million tons, up 99.9 million tons; corn starch processing profit in Shandong is - 32 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [2] 3.6 Downstream Situation - Deep - processing corn consumption is 114.64 million tons, down 0.99 million tons; alcohol enterprise operating rate is 47.88%, down 2.43%; starch enterprise operating rate is 50.36%, up 2.21% [2] 3.7 Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 10%, up 0.44%; 60 - day historical volatility of corn is 7.69%, up 0.04% [2] - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 11.34%, up 1.16%; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for corn is 11.34%, up 1.16% [2] 3.8 Industry News - As of the week ending September 25, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 1527145 tons, compared with 1385966 tons last week and 1149524 tons in the same period last year [2] - As of September 25, the sowing progress of the first - season corn in the central - southern part of Brazil in the 2025/26 season reached 32%, compared with 25% a week ago and 30% in the same period last year [2] - The USDA report predicts that the US corn production in the 2025/26 season will reach a record high of 168.14 billion bushels, and the ending inventory will also reach the highest level in seven years [2]

玉米系产业日报 2025-09-29 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 深加工企业亏损加剧，收购价格有所下调。盘面来看，随着新季玉米逐步上市，对盘面仍有所牵制，维持 偏空思路。 | | 目前玉米淀粉市场行情偏弱，企业仍处于亏损状态，行业开机率整体维持偏低位置运行。供应压力较小，叠加节前需求略有好转， | | --- | --- | | 观点总结（ | 使得库存继续下滑。截至9月24日，全国玉米淀粉企业淀粉库存总量113.9万吨，较上周下降6.10万吨，周降幅5.08%，月降幅13.5 | | 淀粉） | | | 重点关注 | 8%；年同比增幅28.85%。不过，行业库存仍然偏高，且木薯淀粉和小麦淀粉替代优势仍然较好，继续挤压玉米淀粉市场需求。盘 周四、周五mysteel玉米周度消耗以及淀粉企业开机、库存情况 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views - For corn, the USDA report predicts that the US corn production in the 2025/26 season will reach a record - high of 16.814 billion bushels, and the ending stocks will also reach the highest level in seven years. With the progress of US corn harvest, the supply pressure will gradually increase. However, the early harvest results are mixed, leading to an expectation of a possible downward adjustment in US corn production. In the domestic market, the new grain harvest area in Liaoning and Heilongjiang in the Northeast region is expanding, and farmers' enthusiasm for selling grain is high. As the supply of new corn increases, the downstream demand is relatively weak, the losses of deep - processing enterprises are intensifying, and the purchase price has been lowered. The new - season corn listing still restricts the futures market [2]. - For corn starch, the market is currently weak, and enterprises are still in a loss state. The industry's operating rate is generally low. Due to a slight improvement in pre - holiday demand, the inventory continues to decline. As of September 24, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.139 million tons, a weekly decrease of 61,000 tons, a weekly decline of 5.08%, a monthly decline of 13.58%, and a year - on - year increase of 28.85%. However, the industry inventory is still high, and the substitution advantages of tapioca starch and wheat starch are still significant, squeezing the market demand for corn starch. Although there has been a slight rebound at low levels recently, the demand support is insufficient, and the corn starch market maintains a bearish outlook [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract of corn starch futures was 2,469 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of CBOT corn was 425.75 cents/bushel, up 4 cents. The net long non - commercial position of CBOT corn decreased by 36,169 contracts, and the total position increased by 51,949 contracts [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract was 2,164 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders decreased by 251 contracts, and the registered warehouse receipts decreased by 20 contracts [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price was 2,357.25 yuan/ton, up 0.78 yuan; the average price of imported corn was 1,939.55 yuan/ton, down 0.47 yuan [2]. - Corn starch: The factory - quoted price in Changchun was 2,560 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shijiazhuang was 2,730 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang was 2,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The predicted sown areas of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine were 425.26 million hectares, 22.6 million hectares, 7.5 million hectares, 295 million hectares, and 32 million hectares respectively; the predicted yields were 35.89 million tons, 131 million tons, 53 million tons, 44.3 million tons, and 1.5 million tons respectively [2]. - The corn inventory in southern ports decreased by 55,000 tons to 601,000 tons, and the deep - processing corn inventory decreased by 147,000 tons to 2.34 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of corn was 60,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch was 15,940 tons, an increase of 1,440 tons [2]. - The monthly output of feed was 29.272 million tons, and the corn starch processing profit in Shandong was - 72 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The deep - processing corn consumption decreased by 1,100 tons to 115,630 tons, and the alcohol enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.28 percentage points to 50.31% [2]. - The starch enterprise operating rate increased by 2.21 percentage points to 50.36%, and the corn starch processing profit in Hebei was 7 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The historical volatility of corn in 20 days was 10%, unchanged; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 10.5%, an increase of 0.66 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 10.5%, an increase of 0.67 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of September 22, the grain export volume of Ukraine in the 2025/26 season was 5.82 million tons, higher than 5.251 million tons a week ago but lower than 9.764 million tons in the same period last year [2]. - Private exporters reported selling 122,947 tons of US corn to Mexico, with 100,593 tons to be delivered in the 2025/26 season and 22,354 tons in the 2026/27 season [2].

着新玉米上量增多，下游需求相对低迷,深加工企业亏损加剧，收购价格有所下调。盘面来看，随着新季玉 米逐步上市，对盘面仍有所牵制，维持偏空思路。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/吨) 玉米月间价差(1-5):(日,元/吨) | 2158 -70 | 11 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ 4 玉米淀粉月间价差(11-1):(日,元/吨) | 2447 -5 | 16 14 | | | | | 吨) | | | | | 期货持仓量 ...

玉米系产业日报 2025-09-17 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 ，开秤价格同比略有偏高，对市场情绪有所支撑。盘面来看，随着新季玉米逐步上市，续涨动能尚显不足 ，近日多头有获利离场倾向，期价也有所回落，维持偏空思路。 | | 当前北方原料玉米处于新陈交替供应市场阶段，部分企业因原料玉米供应不足，新增检修，同时目前玉米淀粉市场行情偏弱，企业 | | --- | --- | | 观点总结（ | 仍处于亏损状态，行业开机率整体维持偏低位置运行。供应压力偏弱，叠加需求略有好转，使得库存压力有所下滑。截至9月10日 | | 淀粉） | ，全国玉米淀粉企业淀粉库存总量122.6万吨，较上周下降3.90万吨，周降幅3.08%，月降幅6.98 ...

场倾向，期价也有所回落，中长期维持偏空思路。 | | 当前北方原料玉米处于新陈交替供应市场阶段，部分企业因原料玉米供应不足，新增检修，同时目前玉米淀粉市场行情偏弱，企业 | | --- | --- | | 观点总结（ | 仍处于亏损状态，行业开机率整体维持偏低位置运行。供应压力偏弱，叠加需求略有好转，使得库存压力有所下滑。截至9月10日 | | 淀粉） | ，全国玉米淀粉企业淀粉库存总量122.6万吨，较上周下降3.90万吨，周降幅3.08%，月降幅6.98%；年同比增幅40.27%。不过， | | 重点关注 | 周四、周五mysteel玉米周度消耗以及淀粉企业开机、库存情况 | | 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ | 行业库存仍然偏高，且木薯淀粉和小麦淀粉替代优势仍然较好，继续挤压玉米淀粉市场需求。盘面来看，受玉米回落影响，近日淀 | 粉同步走弱，且受自身需求不佳影响，总体走势弱于玉米。 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For corn, domestically, as the new - season corn in the Northeast is approaching the listing period, reserve - rotation corn is continuously put into the market, weakening traders' confidence in price support and accelerating the sale of remaining grains. With poor breeding profits, sluggish feed sales, and low enthusiasm from feed enterprises to purchase old grains, and deep - processing enterprises relying mainly on contract grains, the market trading is relatively light, and prices continue to run weakly. Recently, due to short - covering, corn futures prices have rebounded from the low level [2]. - For corn starch, as previously overhauled enterprises resume work, the operating rate in the corn starch industry has rebounded, increasing supply - side pressure. The overall market trading shows no obvious trend, and the supply - demand pattern is clearly oversupplied with high inventory pressure. Affected by the corn rebound, starch prices have risen in a volatile manner [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2200 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 monthly spread is - 66 yuan/ton, the trading volume of the active contract is 948162 lots, the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 75739 lots, the registered warehouse receipt volume is 66608 lots, and the CS - C spread of the main contract is 212 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2505 yuan/ton, the 11 - 1 monthly spread is - 30 yuan/ton, the trading volume of the active contract is 196158 lots, the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 41054 lots, and the registered warehouse receipt volume is 7450 lots [2]. 3.2 Outer - Disk Market - CBOT corn: The closing price of the active contract is 420 cents/bushel, the total position is 1456701 lots (weekly), and the non - commercial net long position is - 70940 lots (weekly) [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2363.33 yuan/ton, the fair - market price at Jinzhou Port is 2280 yuan/ton, the CIF price of imported corn is 1929.52 yuan/ton, and the international freight of imported corn is 43 US dollars/ton [2]. - Corn starch: The ex - factory quotes in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2660 yuan/ton, 2900 yuan/ton, and 2830 yuan/ton respectively. The basis of the main corn starch contract is 155 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main corn contract is 163.33 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine is 398.93 million tons, 131 million tons, 53 million tons, 295 million tons, and 30.5 million tons respectively. The predicted sown areas in the US, Brazil, Argentina, and China are 35.12 million hectares, 22.6 million hectares, 7.5 million hectares, and 44.3 million hectares respectively [2]. - Corn inventories at southern and northern ports are 770,000 tons and 1.75 million tons respectively, and the deep - processing corn inventory is 2.942 million tons [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - The imported corn volume is 60,000 tons, and the exported corn starch volume is 15,940 tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - The monthly feed production is 2.8273 million tons, the sample feed corn inventory days are 28.13 days, the deep - processing corn consumption is 1.1402 million tons, the alcohol enterprise operating rate is 42.87%, and the starch enterprise operating rate is 51.01% [2]. - The corn starch processing profits in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin are - 122 yuan/ton, - 51 yuan/ton, and - 81 yuan/ton respectively [2]. 3.7 Option Market - The 20 - day and 60 - day historical volatilities of corn are 7.46% and 6.32% respectively. The implied volatilities of at - the - money call options and at - the - money put options of corn are 10.02% and 10.02% respectively [2]. 3.8 Industry News - As of August 28, the sowing progress of the first - season corn in the central and southern regions of Brazil in the 2025/26 season has reached 6.7%, compared with 3.2% a week ago and 7.7% in the same period last year [2]. - As of August 28, the harvesting of the second - season corn in Brazil in the 2024/2025 season has ended, 2 percentage points higher than the 98% a week ago, and the harvesting was also completed in the same period last year [2]. - Pro Farmer's final yield forecast shows that the total US corn production in 2025 is expected to reach 1.6204 billion bushels, with an average yield of 182.7 bushels per acre, which is lower than the USDA's August forecast [2]. 3.9 Key Points to Watch - Monitor the weekly corn consumption data from Mysteel and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Corn: In the domestic market, the continuous auction of imported corn in the main producing areas and the listing of spring corn have increased supply. Trade entities are less willing to hold prices and more eager to clear inventories. With weak downstream demand, the market's confidence in price increases has diminished, and corn prices are gradually bottoming out. The corn market remains in a weak trend, and a bearish approach is recommended [2]. - Corn Starch: As previously shut - down enterprises resume operations, supply pressure has increased. With downstream demand in the off - season and poor sales, the supply of corn starch far exceeds demand. Corn starch inventory has increased, and the market remains in a weak trend, suggesting a bearish approach [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn: The closing price of the active futures contract is 2164 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the 1 - 5 monthly spread is - 70 yuan/ton; the open interest of the active contract is 1019003 lots, up 14990 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 105472 lots, up 8639 lots; the registered warehouse receipts are 84226 lots, down 5844 lots; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 281 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - Corn Starch: The closing price of the active futures contract is 2471 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the 11 - 1 monthly spread is - 44 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; the open interest of the active contract is 225322 lots, up 14600 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 28973 lots, down 2352 lots; the registered warehouse receipts are 7450 lots, unchanged [2]. - CBOT Corn: The closing price is 409.25 cents/bushel, down 3.25 cents; the total open interest is 1566367 contracts, up 16491 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 105210 contracts, up 27964 contracts [2]. Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2365.69 yuan/ton, down 2.06 yuan; the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2260 yuan/ton, unchanged; the CIF price of imported corn is 1918.54 yuan/ton, down 1.3 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 45 dollars/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main corn contract is 201.69 yuan/ton, down 8.06 yuan [2]. - Corn Starch: The ex - factory price in Changchun is 2660 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; in Weifang is 2900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; in Shijiazhuang is 2830 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the basis of the main corn starch contract is 185 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan; the spread between Shandong starch and corn is 336 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan [2]. - Substitute Products: The average spot price of wheat is 2430.11 yuan/ton, down 1.11 yuan; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 157 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 38 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Production Forecast: The predicted annual corn production in the US is 398.93 million tons, down 2.92 million tons; in Brazil is 131 million tons, unchanged; in Argentina is 53 million tons, unchanged; in China is 295 million tons, unchanged; in Ukraine is 30.5 million tons, unchanged [2]. - Sowing Area Forecast: The predicted sowing area of corn in the US is 35.12 million hectares, down 0.25 million hectares; in Brazil is 22.6 million hectares, unchanged; in Argentina is 7.5 million hectares, unchanged; in China is 44.3 million hectares, unchanged [2]. - Inventory: The corn inventory at southern ports is 67.1 million tons, down 8 million tons; at northern ports is 203 million tons, down 44 million tons; the deep - processing corn inventory is 314.7 million tons, down 25.5 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - Import and Export: The monthly import volume of corn is 6 million tons, down 10 million tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 14.5 thousand tons, down 13.28 thousand tons [2]. - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2827.3 million tons, down 110.4 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Feed: The sample feed corn inventory days are 28.85 days, down 0.76 days; the deep - processing corn consumption is 113.62 million tons, down 0.44 million tons [2]. - Corn Starch Processing: The processing profit in Shandong is - 94 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; in Hebei is - 77 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin is - 67 yuan/ton, unchanged; the alcohol enterprise operating rate is 43.57%, up 1.57%; the starch enterprise operating rate is 51.01%, down 1.29% [2]. Option Market - Corn: The 20 - day historical volatility is 6.77%, down 0.1%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.18%, up 0.01%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 9.89%, up 0.11%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 9.89%, up 0.11% [2]. Industry News - Ukraine: As of August 25, 2025/26 (starting from July), Ukraine's grain exports were 353 million tons, higher than 298.3 million tons a week ago but lower than 675 million tons in the same period last year [2]. - US: In 18 states accounting for 92% of the national corn sowing area, as of August 24, the proportion of corn in the dough stage was 83%, up from 72% a week ago, the same as 83% last year. Pro Farmer's final yield forecast shows that the total US corn production in 2025 is expected to reach 1.6204 billion bushels, with an average yield of 182.7 bushels per acre, lower than the USDA's August forecast [2]. Key Points to Watch The weekly corn consumption data and the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises released by Mysteel on Thursday and Friday should be closely monitored [3].