Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The overall supply - demand of iron ore is loose with an increase in port inventory. The market rumor of crude steel production reduction policy and the easing of trade wars exist. The domestic demand is expected to decrease while imports will increase, and there are domestic capacity - reduction plans. The report suggests a volatile and slightly bullish outlook [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Steel mill hot metal production is decreasing, supply - side arrivals this month will remain at a relatively high level, overall supply - demand is loose, port inventory is increasing, there are rumors of crude steel production reduction policies, and trade wars are easing; bearish [2] - **Basis**: Rizhao Port PB powder spot converted to the futures price is 773 with a basis of 10; Qingdao Port Super Special powder spot converted to the futures price is 844 with a basis of 80, spot is at a premium to futures; neutral [2] - **Inventory**: Port inventory is 14,485.9 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year; neutral [2] - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is upward; bullish [2] - **Main Position**: The net position of the main iron ore contract is short, and short positions are decreasing; bearish [2] - **Expectation**: Domestic demand is decreasing, imports are increasing, and domestic capacity - reduction plans will impact the market, with a volatile and slightly bullish view [2] Factors Affecting the Market - **Bullish Factors**: High hot metal production, decreasing port inventory, import losses [5] - **Bearish Factors**: Increased future shipments, weak terminal demand [5] Other Catalogs - **Iron ore port spot price**: No detailed information provided [7] - **Iron ore basis**: No detailed information provided [12] - **Iron ore import profit**: No detailed information provided [15] - **Iron ore shipments**: No detailed information provided [18] - **Iron ore port and steel mill inventory**: No detailed information provided [21] - **Iron ore arrivals and port clearance volume**: No detailed information provided [23] - **Iron ore daily consumption**: No detailed information provided [26] - **Steel enterprise production situation**: No detailed information provided [29] - **Iron ore daily port transactions and steel mill daily hot metal**: No detailed information provided [31]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall supply - demand of iron ore is loose, with steel mills' hot metal production starting to decrease, and the monthly arrival level remaining relatively high. The port inventory is increasing, and there are rumors of crude steel production cut policies. The trade war situation is easing. Considering various factors such as basis, inventory, and market expectations, the market is expected to be volatile with a downward bias [2]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Steel mills' hot metal production is decreasing, supply - side arrival levels remain high this month, overall supply - demand is loose, port inventory is increasing, there are rumors of crude steel production cut policies, and the trade war is easing, all of which are bearish factors [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 744, with a basis of 35; the spot price of Chaote powder at Qingdao Port converted to the futures price is 824, with a basis of 115. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory is 14480.23 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, which is a neutral factor [2]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main iron ore contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: Domestic demand is decreasing and imports are increasing, so the market is expected to be volatile with a downward bias [2]. 3.2 Factors - **Bullish Factors**: High hot metal production, decreasing port inventory, and import losses [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: Increasing future shipments and weak terminal demand [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article suggests that the steel market in the second half of the year will be influenced by multiple factors, with prices expected to initially decline before rising [1] - Domestic demand for steel is heavily reliant on policy support, with a projected decline in demand for construction steel, although urban renewal may offset some of the decrease [1] - Infrastructure steel demand may improve on a month-on-month basis, but lacks significant growth potential [1] Group 2 - The manufacturing sector is showing weakness in certain areas, requiring support from "two new" policies [1] - Direct exports are expected to remain high, but are unlikely to drive steel prices significantly [1] - Supply-side production is anticipated to fluctuate slightly, with ongoing reductions in crude steel production causing disruptions [1] Group 3 - Iron ore supply pressure is easing, with a projected increase of approximately 13.7 million tons in global iron ore shipments by 2025, while annual foreign ore arrivals are expected to decrease by 15 to 20 million tons year-on-year [1] - Under optimistic assumptions, average molten iron production is expected to be 2.39 million tons per day in Q3, decreasing to 2.28 million tons per day in Q4 [1] - Under pessimistic assumptions, crude steel production may be reduced by 10 to 20 million tons in Q4, leading to significant inventory pressure [1] Group 4 - Recommendations suggest seizing rebound opportunities in undervalued areas while paying attention to the downward pressure from crude steel reduction policies [1] - Risk factors include potential negative impacts from tariffs on exports and strict enforcement of crude steel reduction policies [1] - The demand outlook for coke is not optimistic, with no significant downward expectations for molten iron in the short term, but long-term demand for finished products remains under pressure [1] Group 5 - Coking coal mines are still profitable, but supply pressures persist, with short-term demand for molten iron supported by basic needs [1] - High levels of imports are stable, but price pressures exist, necessitating attention to coal mine safety regulations [1] - The cost of silicon manganese continues to exert pressure, with production control becoming increasingly difficult [1] Group 6 - The difficulty of destocking silicon iron is increasing, with challenges in inventory digestion as steel production declines [1] - The destocking process may accelerate during the peak season, with potential for valuation recovery, although the extent of rebound is limited [1] - Attention is required on production control measures from manufacturers [1]

Report Overview - **Report Date**: June 30, 2025 - **Report Subject**: Iron Ore - **Report Author**: Hu Yuxiu from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department - **Contact Information**: 0575 - 85226759 1. Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The overall supply - demand of iron ore is loose, with a decrease in steel mill's hot metal production and a high level of arrivals this month. The port inventory has increased, and there are rumors of crude steel production reduction policies. The market is expected to be volatile with a downward bias [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - The steel mill's hot metal production is decreasing, the supply side will maintain a relatively high level of arrivals this month, and the overall supply - demand is loose with an increase in port inventory. There are rumors of crude steel production reduction policies, and the trade war has eased, presenting a bearish outlook [2]. Basis Analysis - The spot price of Rizhao Port PB powder converted to the futures price is 743, with a basis of 26; the spot price of Qingdao Port Super Special powder converted to the futures price is 826, with a basis of 110. The spot is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [2]. Inventory Analysis - The port inventory is 14480.23 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, which is neutral [2]. Market Chart Analysis - The price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is flat, which is bullish [2]. Main Position Analysis - The net position of the main iron ore contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [2]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Bullish Factors**: High hot metal production, a decrease in port inventory, and import losses [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: An increase in later shipments and weak terminal demand [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report The overall supply - demand of iron ore is loose with reduced steel mill hot metal production, high arrival levels this month, increased port inventories, and rumors of crude steel reduction policies. The market is expected to be volatile and bearish due to decreased domestic demand and increased imports, although there are some bullish factors such as spot premium over futures and price above the 20 - day line [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoint - **Fundamentals**: Steel mill hot metal production is decreasing, supply arrival this month remains high, overall supply - demand is loose, port inventories are increasing, there are rumors of crude steel reduction policies, and trade war eases, all being bearish factors [2]. - **Basis**: Rizhao Port PB powder spot converted to futures price is 735 with a basis of 30; Qingdao Port Super Special powder spot converted to futures price is 820 with a basis of 114, showing spot premium over futures, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory is 14433.56 tons, decreasing both on a month - on - month and year - on - year basis, considered neutral [2]. - **Market Chart**: The price is above the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is flat, which is bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position of iron ore is net short and short positions are decreasing, being bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: With decreased domestic demand and increased imports, the market is expected to be volatile and bearish [2]. Bullish Factors - High hot metal production [5]. - Decreased port inventory [5]. - Import losses [5]. Bearish Factors - Increased future shipment volume [5]. - Weak terminal demand [5]. Other Catalogs - **Iron Ore Port Spot Price**: Not elaborated in the report [7]. - **Iron Ore Futures - Spot Basis**: Not elaborated in the report [10]. - **Iron Ore Import Profit**: Not elaborated in the report [12]. - **Iron Ore Shipment Volume**: Not elaborated in the report [14]. - **Iron Ore Port Inventory and Steel Mill Inventory**: Not elaborated in the report [16]. - **Iron Ore Arrival and Dispatching Volume**: Not elaborated in the report [21]. - **Iron Ore Daily Consumption**: Not elaborated in the report [24]. - **Steel Enterprise Production Situation**: Not elaborated in the report [26]. - **Iron Ore Port Daily Transaction and Steel Mill Daily Hot Metal**: Not elaborated in the report [28].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报（2025-6-23） 每日观点 铁矿石： 1、基本面：钢厂铁水产量开始减少，供应端本月到港水平继续将保持偏高水平，总体供需宽松，港口库存 增加，市场传言将出台粗钢压减政策，贸易战缓和；偏空 2、基差：日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价793，基差90；日照港巴粗现货折合盘面价767，基差64，现货升水期 货；偏多 3、库存：港口库存14433.56万吨，环比减少，同比减少；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方,20日线向下；中性 5、主力持仓：铁矿主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：国内需求降低，进口增加，震荡偏空思路 利多： 利空： 1.铁水产量保持高位。 2.港口库存减少。 3.进口亏损 1. 后期发货量增加。 2. 终端需求依旧弱势。 铁 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply - demand of iron ore is loose, with port inventories increasing. There are rumors of a crude steel production reduction policy, and trade tensions are easing. The market is expected to be volatile with a downward bias [2]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - Steel mills' hot metal production is decreasing, supply - side arrivals this month will remain at a relatively high level, leading to a loose overall supply - demand situation and an increase in port inventories. There are rumors of a crude steel production reduction policy, and trade tensions are easing, presenting a bearish outlook [2]. 3.2 Basis Analysis - The spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 789, with a basis of 91; the spot price of Brazilian coarse ore at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 764, with a basis of 66. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price, presenting a bullish outlook [2]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - Port inventories are 14,503.14 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, presenting a neutral outlook [2]. 3.4 Market Trend Analysis - The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, presenting a bearish outlook [2]. 3.5 Main Position Analysis - The net position of the main iron ore contract is short, and short positions are increasing, presenting a bearish outlook [2]. 3.6 Expectation Analysis - Domestic demand is decreasing, and imports are increasing. The market is expected to be volatile with a downward bias [2]. 3.7 Factors Analysis - **Positive Factors**: High hot metal production, decreasing port inventories, and import losses [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Increased future shipments and weak terminal demand [5].

1、基本面：钢厂铁水产量开始减少，供应端本月到港水平继续将保持偏高水平，总体供需宽松，港口库存 增加，市场传言将出台粗钢压减政策，贸易战缓和；中性 2、基差：日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价803，基差98；日照港巴粗现货折合盘面价777，基差73，现货升水期 货；偏多 3、库存：港口库存14503.14万吨，环比增加，同比减少；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方,20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：铁矿主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：国内需求降低，进口增加，震荡偏空思路 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报（2025-6-17） 每日观点 铁矿石： 利多： 利空： 1.铁水产量保持高位。 2.港口库存减少。 3.进口亏损 1. 后期发货量增加。 2. 终端需求依旧弱势。 铁 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报（2025-6-13） 每日观点 铁矿石： 1、基本面：钢厂铁水产量开始减少，供应端本月到港水平继续将保持偏高水平，总体供需宽松，港口库存 增加，市场传言将出台粗钢压减政策，贸易战缓和；中性 2、基差：日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价808，基差104；日照港巴粗现货折合盘面价783，基差79，现货升水期 货；偏多 3、库存：港口库存14400.31万吨，环比减少，同比减少；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方,20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：铁矿主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：国内需求降低，进口增加，震荡偏空思路 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 利多： 利空： 1.铁水产量保持高位。 2.港口库存减少。 3.进口亏损 1. 后期发货量增加。 2. 终端需求依旧弱势。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 利空： 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报（2025-6-5） 每日观点 铁矿石： 1、基本面：钢厂铁水产量开始减少，供应端本月到港水平继续将保持偏高水平，总体供需宽松，港口库存 增加，市场传言将出台粗钢压减政策，贸易战缓和；中性 2、基差：日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价817，基差112；日照港巴粗现货折合盘面价791，基差87，现货升水期 货；偏多 3、库存：港口库存14469.58万吨，环比减少，同比减少；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方,20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：铁矿主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：国内需求降低，进口增加，震荡偏空思路 利多： 1.钢厂补库有所增加。 2.港口库存减少。 3.进口亏损 1. 后期发货量增加。 2. 终端需求依旧弱势。 铁 ...