Core Viewpoint - After the adjustment in the A-share market, October is likely to be a favorable month for capital market expectations to stabilize and rise, with key policy layout opportunities emerging [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The adjustment in the A-share market is expected to lead to a "red October," which is a period of potential recovery and growth [1] - The cyclical catalysts are anticipated to be limited in Q4 2025, while the focus on demand will shift towards the new round of policy and economic bottoming in 2026 [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The technology sector continues to show upward trends, with the overseas AI industry still on the rise and not yet reaching its limits, while the domestic AI industry is also making continuous progress [1] - The current period is characterized by increasing highlights in the technology sector, with structural highlights emerging since the adjustment in September [1] Group 3: Future Projections - October is expected to see a resonance between industry highlights and long-term policy layouts, potentially reigniting structural enthusiasm [1] - The spring of 2026 may represent a phase peak, but it is unlikely to be the peak for the entire year or the peak of the current bull market, as conditions for a comprehensive bull market will continue to strengthen over time [1]

Core Viewpoints - The adjustment phase in A-shares is not expected to lead to a major downward risk in the medium term, with a high probability of a "red October" following the current adjustments, as long-term policy layouts are approaching and technological catalysts continue to persist [3][5][6] - The economic outlook for the second half of 2025 remains uncertain, but it is not expected to affect the anticipated upward turning point in supply-demand dynamics in 2026 [3][5][6] - The narrative of a bull market is still valid, with the current phase characterized by increased allocation of equity by residents and improvements in cyclical fundamentals [3][5] Short-term Market Outlook - October is seen as a critical policy layout window, which may stabilize and elevate market expectations after the current adjustments [6][7] - The cyclical catalysts are expected to be limited in the fourth quarter of 2025, while technological industry catalysts are on an upward trend, particularly in AI, both domestically and internationally [6][7] - The ongoing adjustments are likely to improve short-term cost-effectiveness indicators, setting the stage for the "red October" market to unfold [6][7] Medium-term Market Outlook - Before spring 2026, technological industry catalysts are expected to dominate over cyclical catalysts, although there may be short-term cost-effectiveness issues in tech growth [7][8] - Spring 2026 may present challenges for the A-share market, including verification of demand-side dynamics and potential delays in the supply-demand turning point if demand remains weak [7][8] - The long-term cost-effectiveness of the tech industry may reach low levels, similar to previous market conditions in late 2013 and late 2019, potentially leading to a mid-term consolidation phase [7][8] Structural Outlook - The trend in tech growth is expected to remain dominant, with better performance in high-low switches within tech sectors compared to switches between growth and value [8][9] - New catalysts in emerging sectors are anticipated to have high elasticity, with significant growth potential in sectors like overseas computing power, innovative pharmaceuticals, energy storage, solid-state batteries, and advanced manufacturing technologies [8][9] - The structural transition from a structural bull market to a comprehensive bull market is critical, with a focus on industries like photovoltaics and chemicals [8][9] Hong Kong Market Outlook - The medium-term outlook for the Hong Kong market remains positive, benefiting from the anticipated interest rate cuts and the strengthening of new economic trends [9]

Core Viewpoints - The judgment that the small-level adjustment wave of A-shares has not ended is being validated, with no medium-term downside risk and the short-term adjustment not being of a large scale. After the adjustment, a "red October" is highly probable due to the approaching long-term policy layout period and ongoing technological catalysts, with short-term price-performance adjustments likely to be resolved soon [1][5][6] Market Adjustment and Outlook - The current market is undergoing a small-level adjustment since early September, with the core issue being the lack of consensus on the structural mainline to push the index higher. The space and time for a technology structural bull market are limited, leading to market resistance in the upward movement as it digests price-performance issues [5][6] - The adjustment is unfolding, and it is emphasized that there will not be a large-scale adjustment in the short term. The core reason is that there is no real downside risk in the medium term. Economic improvement in the second half of 2025 and further policy efforts are expected to support the upward turning point in supply-demand dynamics in 2026 [2][5][6] Expectations for October - October is seen as a critical policy layout window, where the adjustment will be conducive to stabilizing and improving capital market expectations. Potential catalysts are being evaluated dynamically, with a focus on the demand side looking towards a new round of "policy bottom" to "economic bottom" in 2026, while supply-side clearing is expected in mid-2026 [6][7] - The cyclical catalysts for Q4 2025 are relatively limited, but the technological industry continues to show upward trends, particularly in AI, which has not yet reached its boundaries. The current period is characterized by increasing highlights in the technology industry, and the structural heat may re-energize in October [6][9] Medium-term Market Outlook - Before spring 2026, the technological industry is expected to have significantly more catalysts than cyclical ones, although there may be short-term price-performance issues in technology growth. The trend in technology growth may continue, eventually leading to a long-term low price-performance area [6][7] - Spring 2026 may represent a phase peak for the A-share market, facing challenges such as the arrival of a key verification period on the demand side and the potential delay in the supply-demand turning point if demand remains weak. New structural highlights may still need time to emerge, and the long-term price-performance of the technology industry may reach low levels [7][9] Structural Outlook - The trend in technology growth is expected to dominate, with better performance in high-low switches within technology than between growth and value. New catalysts in emerging sectors are anticipated to have high elasticity, with mid-term market space remaining for technology sectors that have already accumulated certain gains [9][10] - The transition from a structural bull to a comprehensive bull market is crucially linked to the anti-involution trend, with a focus on sectors like photovoltaics and chemicals. The mid-term outlook for Hong Kong stocks remains unchanged, benefiting from the strengthening of "Trump's interest rate cut bullish options" and the fermentation of new economic industry trends [9][10]