从市场风格来看，傅静涛表示，2026年春季前，科技成长股可能还有小波段反弹；从春季到年中的过渡 阶段，高股息防御股可能占优；年中以后，预计"周期搭台，成长唱戏"，"政策底"催化顺周期板块引领 指数突破，最终科技产业趋势和制造业全球影响力提升才是市场主线。 他建议2026年关注三大结构线索：一是周期Alpha、基础化工、工业金属等复苏交易板块；二是AI产业 链、人形机器人、储能、光伏，医药、军工等科技产业趋势板块；三是化工、工程机械等制造业影响力 提升的板块。 中证报中证网讯（记者 林倩）11月18日，申万宏源在上海举办2026资本市场投资年会，申万宏源A股策 略首席分析师傅静涛在演讲中表示，2026年春季，A股市场可能达到阶段性高点，2026年年中，"政策 底、市场底、经济底"依次出现，可能触发行情全面启动。 傅静涛预计，2026年中游制造供给可能出清，产能形成增速低于需求增速中枢的细分行业明显增加，自 下而上选股胜率提升。"政策底、市场底、经济底"依次出现，框架有效性回归，2026年年中是"政策 底"的验证时刻，A股行情可能全面启动。这轮行情主要依靠基本面周期性改善、新兴产业趋势强化、 居民资产配置向权益迁 ...

Market Performance - Major stock indices in the two markets showed weakness, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below the 4000-point mark again, and the ChiNext and Sci-Tech 50 indices dropping over 1% [1] - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.24% to 3993.35 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.07%, the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.58%, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index declined by 1.65% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 12,704 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - Sectors such as semiconductors, chemicals, automobiles, non-ferrous metals, brokerages, and steel experienced declines, while insurance, banking, oil, and pharmaceuticals saw gains [1] - Concepts related to brain engineering and innovative pharmaceuticals were active in the market [1] Investment Outlook - Long-term trends for technology growth stocks show insufficient cost-effectiveness, with increasing short-term fundamental concerns [2] - There is a lack of established structures to lead the market breakout, suggesting that the A-share market may continue to experience a volatile phase [2] - The spring of 2026 is projected to be a potential peak, but it is unlikely to represent the peak for the entire year or the current bull market [2] - Three areas of mid-term returns are anticipated: cyclical improvement in fundamentals, asset allocation shifts towards equities leading to valuation reassessment, and increased global influence of China enhancing economic conditions and valuation [2] - The effective return of the framework of "policy bottom, market bottom, economic bottom" is expected by mid-2026, coinciding with a potential start of a new bull market phase [2]

Core Viewpoint - After the adjustment in the A-share market, October is likely to be a favorable month for capital market expectations to stabilize and rise, with key policy layout opportunities emerging [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The adjustment in the A-share market is expected to lead to a "red October," which is a period of potential recovery and growth [1] - The cyclical catalysts are anticipated to be limited in Q4 2025, while the focus on demand will shift towards the new round of policy and economic bottoming in 2026 [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The technology sector continues to show upward trends, with the overseas AI industry still on the rise and not yet reaching its limits, while the domestic AI industry is also making continuous progress [1] - The current period is characterized by increasing highlights in the technology sector, with structural highlights emerging since the adjustment in September [1] Group 3: Future Projections - October is expected to see a resonance between industry highlights and long-term policy layouts, potentially reigniting structural enthusiasm [1] - The spring of 2026 may represent a phase peak, but it is unlikely to be the peak for the entire year or the peak of the current bull market, as conditions for a comprehensive bull market will continue to strengthen over time [1]