以下文章来源于申万宏源策略 ，作者申万宏源策略 申万宏源策略 . 我们强调体系性、实战性 一、投资者普遍对牛市有期待，但对短期市场的分歧有所加大。总结短期市场面临的阻力： 1. 25Q3市场预期经济回落 + 政策重点是调结构，宏观环境暂时不支持指数向上突破。2. 牛市结构主线尚未确立。牛市中要做动量，但最强动量 应该从牛市的核心叙事中诞生。医药和海外算力是独立高景气，但牛市主线需要内涵外延更大纵深，国内科技突破、全球市占率高的制造业反内 卷，才是潜在的牛市主线方向。 牛市行情逐步启动正在成为市场共识，但对短期市场，投资者仍有较大分歧。我们总结短期市场面临的阻力：1. 反内卷强化了2026年中游制造供 给出清的预期，但市场对需求侧信心仍明显不足。市场预期25H2经济弱于25H1，且政策重点偏向调结构。2026年需求改善线索仍不清晰。这个 宏观组合可能暂时不支持指数向上突破。2. 牛市结构主线尚未确立。牛市中要做动量，但最强的动量应该与牛市核心叙事直接相关。医药更偏向 于独立的产业趋势。而海外算力链是全球AI扩散行情的一部分，但对于A股而言，海外算力链的投资机会是收敛的，分化的。而能够作为牛市主 线的结构线索，应 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on AI applications, Huawei chain, and financial technology [2][5][12] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the investment hotspots in July, focusing on overseas computing power, AI applications, and military industry, with a bullish sentiment in the market [2][5][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of technological innovation as a growth driver, particularly in AI applications, Huawei chain, and financial technology [2][5][12] Summary by Sections July Investment Hotspots Review - The report identifies overseas computing power and AI applications as key investment themes, with significant gains observed in these sectors [23][34] - The report notes that the computing sector has shown strong performance, with the Shenwan Computer Index rising by 3.86% in July [12][14] August Investment Direction - The report suggests focusing on three main directions for August: AI applications, Huawei chain, and financial technology [2][5][12] - AI applications are supported by government policies and advancements in large model iterations, with notable companies like TempusAI expected to report strong earnings [2][5][12] - The Huawei chain is anticipated to benefit from the upcoming Huawei Connect conference, with historical data indicating potential excess returns around such events [2][5][12] - Financial technology is highlighted as a leading sector, with a significant increase in new A-share accounts and trading volume, indicating a bullish market sentiment [2][5][12] Key Companies and Performance - The report lists several companies with notable performance in July, including Yao Cai Securities, Da Zhi Hui, and OSL Group, with gains exceeding 30% [13][34] - AI application companies such as Dingjie Zhizhi and Fanwei also showed strong performance, with significant month-over-month increases [34][35] Policy Support for AI Development - The report discusses recent government initiatives aimed at supporting AI development, including the issuance of AI vouchers and funding for key projects [35][36] - Shanghai's measures to expand AI applications include financial incentives for companies involved in AI technology and infrastructure [36][37]

Group 1 - The article discusses the phenomenon of stock price movements where individual stocks can decline more than the overall index during a market downturn, highlighting the importance of statistical interpretation in market analysis [3][6] - It introduces the concept of price comparison effects among stocks, where the relative valuation of stocks leads to a cascading effect in price movements, causing some stocks to rise significantly while others lag behind [7][8] - The article emphasizes the cyclical nature of market trends, where sectors take turns leading the market, and how this can result in systematic adjustments in the overall market when most sectors reach their peak [9][8] Group 2 - The article identifies key sectors that have shown significant price movements since mid-April, including new consumption, gold, banking, military industry, innovative pharmaceuticals, overseas computing power, and domestic AI industry [11][12] - It details the performance and peak timings of various sectors, noting that gold was the first to support the market, followed by new consumption, which peaked between late May and early June [13][14][15] - The banking sector also saw early gains, with different types of banks peaking at various times from July 7 to July 11, indicating a pattern of internal rotation within the sector [17][18] Group 3 - The military industry has shown resilience due to various factors, including order fulfillment and military trade, with significant price movements observed in specific sub-sectors [19][20] - The overseas computing power supply chain has been robust, driven by strong fundamentals and significant growth, with no clear signs of a peak yet [20] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector has emerged as a strong performer, driven by changes in fundamentals and market dynamics, although it may be approaching a peak due to speculative trading [21][22] Group 4 - The article discusses the "anti-involution" sector, which includes both traditional and emerging industries, and how this sector's performance can signal market peaks [24][25] - It highlights the need for a high-activity sector to sustain market momentum, with the domestic AI industry being positioned as a potential driver for future market movements [28][30] - The AI industry is seen as a critical component for breaking the current market cycle, with its growth potential linked to advancements in AI applications across various sectors [29][30]

策 略 研 究 2025 年 08 月 02 日 牛市中的调整波段 ——申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/07/28-25/08/02) 相关研究 证券分析师 傅静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 韦春泽 A0230524060005 weicz@swsresearch.com 一 周 回 顾 展 望 - ⚫ 一、短期调整的背景是，市场轮涨补涨行情充分演绎，市场稳定性略有下降。7 月政治局 会议和中美新一轮谈判并非低于预期，只是未提供新的突破线索。带领市场进一步突破的 主线结构尚未确立，市场调整回归震荡市。在调整波段中，市场将会消化 2025 下半年经 济增速预期回落 + 政策重点仍偏向调结构的预期。 ⚫ 8 月市场回归震荡市，9 月 3 日阅兵前可能还有上涨波段。中期观点不变：时间是牛市的 朋友，核心是时间是基本面改善和增量资金流入 A 股的朋友。维持 25Q4 好于 25Q3 的 判断，2026 年会更好的判断。 ⚫ 7 月政治局会议和中美新一轮谈判的结果，低于资本市场 ...

Group 1 - The current market stage is characterized by "asymmetric upside potential and locked downside risk," indicating that while downside risks are contained, there is significant room for upside gains [1][2] - The People's Bank of China has provided assurances for sufficient re-lending support to financial institutions, which is expected to bolster market liquidity [1][2] - Large state-owned insurance companies are mandated to invest 30% of their new premiums in A-shares starting from 2025, suggesting a gradual increase in insurance capital allocation to the market [1][2] Group 2 - The recent performance of cyclical stocks may signal the onset of a mid-term bull market rally, as these stocks typically underperform in the early stages of a bull market but gain traction later [2][3] - Historical data from previous bull markets (2013-2015 and 2019-2021) shows that cyclical stocks lag in the early phases but become more active as the market matures, primarily due to valuation advantages [2][3] - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed the resistance level of 3450 points, indicating a positive feedback loop of incremental capital inflow into the market [3][4] Group 3 - The market is expected to maintain a slow upward trend, driven by fundamental improvements and liquidity dynamics, with a focus on sectors such as domestic consumption, technology independence, and resource stocks [3][4] - The upcoming Central Urban Work Conference is anticipated to address urban renewal and village renovation, which may influence market expectations regarding real estate policies [4]

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices opened higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.09% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 0.02%. Key sectors such as precious metals, rare earth permanent magnets, and securities showed significant gains [1]. Institutional Insights - According to Caixin Securities, there is an expectation for a "de-involution" market trend, with no significant macro risks anticipated before August. The market is entering a new bullish phase, supported by improved investor sentiment and increased capital inflow. Although there are strong resistance levels, a predominantly strong oscillating market is expected, with an increase in investment tolerance. As long as the broad market indices do not show significant breakdowns, maintaining a high equity market position is advisable. The implementation of "de-involution" policies could alleviate the "increased income without increased profit" dilemma, potentially leading the indices into a new upward phase [2]. - Huazhong Securities remains optimistic about the trend in banking and insurance sectors, noting that while overseas tariff risks may increase, A-shares are gradually becoming desensitized. The upcoming second-quarter economic data is expected to be weaker than the first quarter but may exceed market expectations. The market is likely to experience increased volatility, with a focus on the banking sector's high dividend yield and the potential for significant valuation recovery in the real estate sector. Sectors with strong support include rare earth permanent magnets, precious metals, engineering machinery, motorcycles, and agricultural chemicals [3]. Investment Recommendations - Investment suggestions include focusing on sectors related to "de-involution" such as photovoltaics, lithium batteries, automobiles, steel, building materials, coal, and pork. Additionally, stablecoin-related sectors like fintech and brokerage, as well as non-ferrous sectors such as rare earths and precious metals (especially silver), are recommended. Companies with mid-year earnings forecasts likely to exceed expectations include those in overseas computing power, wind power, shipping, innovative pharmaceuticals, new consumption, and military industries [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index has closed above 3500 points, suggesting a likely medium-term trend of a slow bull market characterized by fluctuations, influenced by recent tariff shocks and rising overseas uncertainties [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of structural opportunities, recommending a focus on sectors that may benefit from unexpected earnings in mid-year reports and those that could gain from anti-involution trends, including photovoltaic equipment, batteries, passenger vehicles, steel, fiberglass, innovative pharmaceuticals/CXO, and optical modules/PCBs [1] - The analysis highlights that the recovery in profits is expected to be gradual, with ample market liquidity and long-term funds playing a stabilizing role, while also noting that the current core incremental funds are dominated by low-risk preference rather than speculative capital [1] Group 2 - The report discusses the recent clear rotation in the market, where the "anti-involution" trend has reinforced the "high-low switch" strategy, suggesting a focus on sectors that have lagged since March 20 and may benefit from this trend, such as lithium batteries, passenger vehicles, steel, and building materials [2] - It also mentions that since July, the market has responded positively to high growth or exceeding expectations in mid-year reports, with a focus on blue-chip leaders reflecting overall industry improvement expectations, particularly in sectors like shipbuilding, CXO, semiconductor equipment, aquaculture, wind power equipment, military electronics, and overseas computing power [2] - The report notes the impact of new tariff policies initiated by Trump, which introduce uncertainties for global markets and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, as well as a recent trade agreement with Vietnam that could affect related transshipment goods with a 40% tariff [2]