Core Viewpoints - The judgment that the small-level adjustment wave of A-shares has not ended is being validated, with no medium-term downside risk and the short-term adjustment not being of a large scale. After the adjustment, a "red October" is highly probable due to the approaching long-term policy layout period and ongoing technological catalysts, with short-term price-performance adjustments likely to be resolved soon [1][5][6] Market Adjustment and Outlook - The current market is undergoing a small-level adjustment since early September, with the core issue being the lack of consensus on the structural mainline to push the index higher. The space and time for a technology structural bull market are limited, leading to market resistance in the upward movement as it digests price-performance issues [5][6] - The adjustment is unfolding, and it is emphasized that there will not be a large-scale adjustment in the short term. The core reason is that there is no real downside risk in the medium term. Economic improvement in the second half of 2025 and further policy efforts are expected to support the upward turning point in supply-demand dynamics in 2026 [2][5][6] Expectations for October - October is seen as a critical policy layout window, where the adjustment will be conducive to stabilizing and improving capital market expectations. Potential catalysts are being evaluated dynamically, with a focus on the demand side looking towards a new round of "policy bottom" to "economic bottom" in 2026, while supply-side clearing is expected in mid-2026 [6][7] - The cyclical catalysts for Q4 2025 are relatively limited, but the technological industry continues to show upward trends, particularly in AI, which has not yet reached its boundaries. The current period is characterized by increasing highlights in the technology industry, and the structural heat may re-energize in October [6][9] Medium-term Market Outlook - Before spring 2026, the technological industry is expected to have significantly more catalysts than cyclical ones, although there may be short-term price-performance issues in technology growth. The trend in technology growth may continue, eventually leading to a long-term low price-performance area [6][7] - Spring 2026 may represent a phase peak for the A-share market, facing challenges such as the arrival of a key verification period on the demand side and the potential delay in the supply-demand turning point if demand remains weak. New structural highlights may still need time to emerge, and the long-term price-performance of the technology industry may reach low levels [7][9] Structural Outlook - The trend in technology growth is expected to dominate, with better performance in high-low switches within technology than between growth and value. New catalysts in emerging sectors are anticipated to have high elasticity, with mid-term market space remaining for technology sectors that have already accumulated certain gains [9][10] - The transition from a structural bull to a comprehensive bull market is crucially linked to the anti-involution trend, with a focus on sectors like photovoltaics and chemicals. The mid-term outlook for Hong Kong stocks remains unchanged, benefiting from the strengthening of "Trump's interest rate cut bullish options" and the fermentation of new economic industry trends [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The market consensus is gradually shifting towards the initiation of a bull market, but there are significant short-term divergences among investors regarding market conditions and expectations [3][4]. Short-term Market Challenges - The market faces several short-term challenges, including expectations of economic slowdown in Q3 2025 and a policy focus on structural adjustments, which may not support a breakout in indices [2][3]. - The main structural narrative of the bull market has yet to be established, with current high momentum sectors like pharmaceuticals and overseas computing being seen as independent trends rather than the core narrative of the bull market [3][4]. Potential Bull Market Directions - Two potential directions for the bull market structure include: 1. Breakthroughs in domestic technology, particularly in AI and robotics, which could lead to a broader market expansion across infrastructure, hardware, software applications, and business models [3][4]. 2. High global market share manufacturing engaging in anti-involution strategies, which could enhance industry concentration and pricing power [3][4]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The bull market atmosphere is expected to persist despite unfavorable macroeconomic conditions in Q3, as the long-term supply-demand dynamics are projected to improve by 2026 [4][5]. - Key factors that could impact the bull market sentiment include significant demand declines around mid-2026 and constraints on China's manufacturing competitiveness [5][6]. Sector Performance and Investment Opportunities - Short-term strong sectors include pharmaceuticals and overseas computing, which reflect high growth expectations but may face challenges in maintaining independent performance [7][8]. - The defense and military sector is anticipated to have repeated opportunities before early September, while new consumption sectors may see rotational gains [8][10]. - The Hong Kong stock market is highlighted as a potentially leading market in the bull cycle, with a focus on pricing trends that align with fundamental expectations [8][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on AI applications, Huawei chain, and financial technology [2][5][12] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the investment hotspots in July, focusing on overseas computing power, AI applications, and military industry, with a bullish sentiment in the market [2][5][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of technological innovation as a growth driver, particularly in AI applications, Huawei chain, and financial technology [2][5][12] Summary by Sections July Investment Hotspots Review - The report identifies overseas computing power and AI applications as key investment themes, with significant gains observed in these sectors [23][34] - The report notes that the computing sector has shown strong performance, with the Shenwan Computer Index rising by 3.86% in July [12][14] August Investment Direction - The report suggests focusing on three main directions for August: AI applications, Huawei chain, and financial technology [2][5][12] - AI applications are supported by government policies and advancements in large model iterations, with notable companies like TempusAI expected to report strong earnings [2][5][12] - The Huawei chain is anticipated to benefit from the upcoming Huawei Connect conference, with historical data indicating potential excess returns around such events [2][5][12] - Financial technology is highlighted as a leading sector, with a significant increase in new A-share accounts and trading volume, indicating a bullish market sentiment [2][5][12] Key Companies and Performance - The report lists several companies with notable performance in July, including Yao Cai Securities, Da Zhi Hui, and OSL Group, with gains exceeding 30% [13][34] - AI application companies such as Dingjie Zhizhi and Fanwei also showed strong performance, with significant month-over-month increases [34][35] Policy Support for AI Development - The report discusses recent government initiatives aimed at supporting AI development, including the issuance of AI vouchers and funding for key projects [35][36] - Shanghai's measures to expand AI applications include financial incentives for companies involved in AI technology and infrastructure [36][37]

Group 1 - The article discusses the phenomenon of stock price movements where individual stocks can decline more than the overall index during a market downturn, highlighting the importance of statistical interpretation in market analysis [3][6] - It introduces the concept of price comparison effects among stocks, where the relative valuation of stocks leads to a cascading effect in price movements, causing some stocks to rise significantly while others lag behind [7][8] - The article emphasizes the cyclical nature of market trends, where sectors take turns leading the market, and how this can result in systematic adjustments in the overall market when most sectors reach their peak [9][8] Group 2 - The article identifies key sectors that have shown significant price movements since mid-April, including new consumption, gold, banking, military industry, innovative pharmaceuticals, overseas computing power, and domestic AI industry [11][12] - It details the performance and peak timings of various sectors, noting that gold was the first to support the market, followed by new consumption, which peaked between late May and early June [13][14][15] - The banking sector also saw early gains, with different types of banks peaking at various times from July 7 to July 11, indicating a pattern of internal rotation within the sector [17][18] Group 3 - The military industry has shown resilience due to various factors, including order fulfillment and military trade, with significant price movements observed in specific sub-sectors [19][20] - The overseas computing power supply chain has been robust, driven by strong fundamentals and significant growth, with no clear signs of a peak yet [20] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector has emerged as a strong performer, driven by changes in fundamentals and market dynamics, although it may be approaching a peak due to speculative trading [21][22] Group 4 - The article discusses the "anti-involution" sector, which includes both traditional and emerging industries, and how this sector's performance can signal market peaks [24][25] - It highlights the need for a high-activity sector to sustain market momentum, with the domestic AI industry being positioned as a potential driver for future market movements [28][30] - The AI industry is seen as a critical component for breaking the current market cycle, with its growth potential linked to advancements in AI applications across various sectors [29][30]

策 略 研 究 2025 年 08 月 02 日 牛市中的调整波段 ——申万宏源策略一周回顾展望(25/07/28-25/08/02) 相关研究 证券分析师 傅静涛 A0230516110001 fujt@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 韦春泽 A0230524060005 weicz@swsresearch.com 一 周 回 顾 展 望 - ⚫ 一、短期调整的背景是，市场轮涨补涨行情充分演绎，市场稳定性略有下降。7 月政治局 会议和中美新一轮谈判并非低于预期，只是未提供新的突破线索。带领市场进一步突破的 主线结构尚未确立，市场调整回归震荡市。在调整波段中，市场将会消化 2025 下半年经 济增速预期回落 + 政策重点仍偏向调结构的预期。 ⚫ 8 月市场回归震荡市，9 月 3 日阅兵前可能还有上涨波段。中期观点不变：时间是牛市的 朋友，核心是时间是基本面改善和增量资金流入 A 股的朋友。维持 25Q4 好于 25Q3 的 判断，2026 年会更好的判断。 ⚫ 7 月政治局会议和中美新一轮谈判的结果，低于资本市场 ...

Group 1 - The current market stage is characterized by "asymmetric upside potential and locked downside risk," indicating that while downside risks are contained, there is significant room for upside gains [1][2] - The People's Bank of China has provided assurances for sufficient re-lending support to financial institutions, which is expected to bolster market liquidity [1][2] - Large state-owned insurance companies are mandated to invest 30% of their new premiums in A-shares starting from 2025, suggesting a gradual increase in insurance capital allocation to the market [1][2] Group 2 - The recent performance of cyclical stocks may signal the onset of a mid-term bull market rally, as these stocks typically underperform in the early stages of a bull market but gain traction later [2][3] - Historical data from previous bull markets (2013-2015 and 2019-2021) shows that cyclical stocks lag in the early phases but become more active as the market matures, primarily due to valuation advantages [2][3] - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed the resistance level of 3450 points, indicating a positive feedback loop of incremental capital inflow into the market [3][4] Group 3 - The market is expected to maintain a slow upward trend, driven by fundamental improvements and liquidity dynamics, with a focus on sectors such as domestic consumption, technology independence, and resource stocks [3][4] - The upcoming Central Urban Work Conference is anticipated to address urban renewal and village renovation, which may influence market expectations regarding real estate policies [4]

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices opened higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.09% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 0.02%. Key sectors such as precious metals, rare earth permanent magnets, and securities showed significant gains [1]. Institutional Insights - According to Caixin Securities, there is an expectation for a "de-involution" market trend, with no significant macro risks anticipated before August. The market is entering a new bullish phase, supported by improved investor sentiment and increased capital inflow. Although there are strong resistance levels, a predominantly strong oscillating market is expected, with an increase in investment tolerance. As long as the broad market indices do not show significant breakdowns, maintaining a high equity market position is advisable. The implementation of "de-involution" policies could alleviate the "increased income without increased profit" dilemma, potentially leading the indices into a new upward phase [2]. - Huazhong Securities remains optimistic about the trend in banking and insurance sectors, noting that while overseas tariff risks may increase, A-shares are gradually becoming desensitized. The upcoming second-quarter economic data is expected to be weaker than the first quarter but may exceed market expectations. The market is likely to experience increased volatility, with a focus on the banking sector's high dividend yield and the potential for significant valuation recovery in the real estate sector. Sectors with strong support include rare earth permanent magnets, precious metals, engineering machinery, motorcycles, and agricultural chemicals [3]. Investment Recommendations - Investment suggestions include focusing on sectors related to "de-involution" such as photovoltaics, lithium batteries, automobiles, steel, building materials, coal, and pork. Additionally, stablecoin-related sectors like fintech and brokerage, as well as non-ferrous sectors such as rare earths and precious metals (especially silver), are recommended. Companies with mid-year earnings forecasts likely to exceed expectations include those in overseas computing power, wind power, shipping, innovative pharmaceuticals, new consumption, and military industries [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index has closed above 3500 points, suggesting a likely medium-term trend of a slow bull market characterized by fluctuations, influenced by recent tariff shocks and rising overseas uncertainties [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of structural opportunities, recommending a focus on sectors that may benefit from unexpected earnings in mid-year reports and those that could gain from anti-involution trends, including photovoltaic equipment, batteries, passenger vehicles, steel, fiberglass, innovative pharmaceuticals/CXO, and optical modules/PCBs [1] - The analysis highlights that the recovery in profits is expected to be gradual, with ample market liquidity and long-term funds playing a stabilizing role, while also noting that the current core incremental funds are dominated by low-risk preference rather than speculative capital [1] Group 2 - The report discusses the recent clear rotation in the market, where the "anti-involution" trend has reinforced the "high-low switch" strategy, suggesting a focus on sectors that have lagged since March 20 and may benefit from this trend, such as lithium batteries, passenger vehicles, steel, and building materials [2] - It also mentions that since July, the market has responded positively to high growth or exceeding expectations in mid-year reports, with a focus on blue-chip leaders reflecting overall industry improvement expectations, particularly in sectors like shipbuilding, CXO, semiconductor equipment, aquaculture, wind power equipment, military electronics, and overseas computing power [2] - The report notes the impact of new tariff policies initiated by Trump, which introduce uncertainties for global markets and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, as well as a recent trade agreement with Vietnam that could affect related transshipment goods with a 40% tariff [2]