Core Viewpoint - The report from Standard Chartered Bank indicates that if Trump's policies increase U.S. debt without boosting economic growth, the risk of a significant decline in the dollar next year will rise [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Debt and Economic Growth - The simultaneous rise in U.S. government debt and external liabilities poses a significant risk to the dollar and U.S. bonds, potentially leading to a loss of confidence from foreign investors in the U.S.'s long-term borrowing capacity [1]. - The expanding U.S. deficit is reducing national savings and increasing reliance on foreign savings, which translates into a higher current account deficit [1][2]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Market Reactions - Concerns are growing among foreign creditors regarding the sustainability of U.S. debt if tariffs and tax policies fail to stimulate growth, which could manifest as higher risk premiums, either through increased interest rates or a weaker dollar [2][3]. - Investors are beginning to question the stability of U.S. assets due to Trump's aggressive tariff policies and their chaotic implementation [2]. Group 3: Future Economic Outlook - Standard Chartered believes that foreign investors are currently hesitant to fully divest from traditional safe-haven assets, as they await the impact of Trump's policies on growth [3]. - If the tax reform is approved, it may provide some economic benefits this year, but the positive effects are expected to fade by mid-2026 or 2027, raising concerns about long-term growth and debt impacts [3]. Group 4: Federal Reserve's Limitations - The effectiveness of the Federal Reserve's policy tools may be limited in the face of potential crises, with any easing measures possibly not extending to longer-duration bonds [4]. - While the U.S. government can continue to issue dollar-denominated debt, the risk of effective default through inflation could become a substantial concern if the debt trajectory is not stabilized [4].

Core Viewpoint - Standard Chartered warns of a significant risk of a decline in the US dollar by 2026 if President Trump's policies exacerbate the US debt burden without boosting the economy [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The report highlights that the US government debt and obligations to foreign investors have been increasing in recent years, posing risks to the dollar and US Treasury bonds [1] - The expanding US deficit is reducing national savings while increasing the demand for foreign savings, leading to a higher current account deficit [1] Group 2: Investor Confidence - If Trump's policies fail to stimulate economic growth and foreign investors lose confidence, maintaining a high current account deficit in the coming months may become challenging [1]

标普：新西兰的财政和经常账户赤字可能对信用评级产生压力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs analysts indicate that the US dollar is currently overvalued by approximately 16%, driven by global capital chasing the superior return prospects of the US. As the US return advantage diminishes, the overvaluation of the dollar may gradually correct, suggesting potential mid-term adjustment pressure on dollar-denominated assets [1][4]. Valuation Models - Goldman Sachs employs two primary models, GSDEER and GSFEER, to assess dollar valuation, revealing that the actual trade-weighted dollar index is about 16% above its fair value [2]. - The GSDEER model, an enhanced version of purchasing power parity (PPP), shows that the dollar is overvalued by approximately 15% against the trade-weighted index, particularly against the yen, yuan, euro, and Canadian dollar, with the most significant mismatches against the yen and yuan [2]. - The GSFEER model, which focuses on economic imbalances, indicates that the dollar is overvalued by about 17%, with over 16% attributed to the deviation of the US current account deficit from its "standard level" [2]. Current Account Deficit and Dollar Adjustment - The degree of dollar overvaluation is highly dependent on the assumptions regarding the current account "standard level." Currently, the US actual current account deficit is around 4% [3]. - If the current account deficit narrows to 2.6%, it could correspond to a 16.5% adjustment in the dollar; further reduction to 2% (close to the IMF 2023 standard) could lead to a 22% depreciation; and a reduction to 1% may require a 31% depreciation [3]. - The research emphasizes that due to the relatively closed nature of the US economy (with exports accounting for about 11% of GDP), a more significant exchange rate adjustment is necessary to address a similar-sized current account gap compared to more open economies [3]. Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical examples show that currencies can rapidly adjust to fair value when significant macroeconomic changes occur, as seen with the British pound post-Brexit and the euro during gas price shocks [3]. - Goldman Sachs suggests that the overvaluation of the dollar has been a persistent phenomenon in recent years, but as the relative return advantage of the US diminishes and potential policy shifts occur, the market may witness a gradual adjustment of the dollar to a more reasonable valuation level [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Turkish Finance Minister Simsek stated that the decline in oil prices has contributed to a reduction in the current account deficit [1] Group 1 - The decrease in oil prices is seen as a positive factor for Turkey's economy, helping to alleviate the current account deficit [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resilience of global financial markets amid recent volatility, emphasizing the need for investors to reconsider the sustainability of strong asset inflows into the U.S. over the past decade as the U.S. aims to balance trade deficits and reduce current account deficits [1][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has recovered all losses since April 2, marking a nine-day consecutive rise, the longest streak since 2004, despite a cumulative decline of 5.86% over the past three months [1]. - The high valuations of U.S. equities, particularly in the technology sector, remain a concern, with tech stocks still positioned in the top 25% of historical valuations [2][4]. Group 2: Capital Flows and Asset Allocation - Foreign holdings of U.S. securities have nearly doubled from $16 trillion in 2014 to $31 trillion projected for 2024, indicating a significant concentration of dollar assets [7]. - The recent simultaneous sell-off of U.S. stocks, the dollar, and U.S. Treasuries is seen as a normal reaction to uncertainty, particularly driven by trade policies, rather than a definitive shift away from a strong dollar [6][7]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The IMF has warned of high valuations in the U.S. stock market, suggesting that if economic conditions worsen, further adjustments in valuations may occur [2]. - The potential for stagflation is highlighted, as tariffs may lead to supply shocks and rising inflation, while simultaneously dampening demand due to decreased consumer and business confidence [8]. Group 4: Financial Stability - The article notes that while financial stability risks have increased, they are not yet classified as high, and gradual asset reallocation can be absorbed by the market [7]. - The focus should be on market dysfunction, where buyers cannot find sellers, which poses a greater risk to financial stability than mere asset price adjustments [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Turkish Finance Minister announced that the current account deficit is expected to be lower than the mid-term plan's forecast [1] Group 1 - The current account deficit is projected to decrease, indicating a potential improvement in Turkey's economic stability [1] - The announcement suggests a positive outlook for Turkey's balance of payments, which could attract foreign investment [1] - The reduction in the current account deficit may reflect improved export performance or reduced import dependency [1]