我问你个问题，你有没有发现，最近这两年看国际新闻，总有一种强烈的割裂感？ 一边是美元指数好像吃了药一样硬挺，汇率高得吓人，去趟国外觉得什么都贵；另一边呢，你翻开美国国内的经济数据，又觉得这日子简直没法 过了。这种感觉就像是你看着邻居家天天开豪车、吃大餐，结果翻开他的账本一看，信用卡都刷爆十几张了。我就纳闷了，这美元凭什么还能这 么值钱？这种违背常识的"高估"，到底还能撑多久？ 我昨晚特意没睡，把美国财政部和美联储最近发布的几组核心数据翻出来也就是想较个真。 不看不知道，一看这心里更虚。咱们先不说那些复杂的宏观模型，就看最简单的账本。美国现在的国债规模已经突破了36万亿美元。这个数字太 大了，大到你可能都没概念，这么说吧，美国现在的国债利息支出，在2024年已经正式超过了它的国防预算，突破了1万亿美元大关。 这是一条非常恐怖的红线。 你想想，一个国家，它每年辛辛苦苦收上来的税，最大的一笔开支不是用来搞建设，也不是用来造航母，而是用来还利息。这还没算本金呢。我 查了一下美国国会预算办公室的数据，未来十年，这个利息支出还会像滚雪球一样越来越大。 这就带来了一个死结：为了维持美元的吸引力，美联储必须把利率维持在高位， ...

格隆汇12月16日｜根据美国银行最新的全球基金经理调查，12月份认为美元被高估的投资者数量有所增 加。约53%的投资者认为美元被高估，而11月份的调查中这一比例为45%。调查还显示，与历史水平相 比，投资者目前仍低配美元。做空美元头寸被认为是第三大拥挤的交易。押注"七巨头"(包括苹果和 Alphabet在内的七家大型科技巨头)股价上涨的多头头寸被认为是目前最拥挤的交易，其次是做多黄金。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar is expected to remain weak in the medium to long term, despite being overvalued since Trump's presidency began [1] Group 1: Dollar Valuation - Analysts believe the dollar is still overvalued, even after a decline since Trump's inauguration [1] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have negatively impacted market sentiment [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The expanding deficit poses a long-term risk to the stability of the US debt market [1] - Any potential recovery of the dollar is likely to be short-lived, as markets typically do not move in a straight line and will experience periods of consolidation [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. government is threatening to impose a 100% tariff on imported semiconductor products, which reflects a strategy to encourage high-end manufacturing to return to the U.S. [1] - The tariffs are aimed at creating uncertainty in trade negotiations and are part of a broader strategy to reshape domestic supply chains and reduce reliance on foreign manufacturing [2] - The U.S. has been facing challenges such as a high trade deficit and increasing federal debt, prompting the need for structural changes in its economic policies [2] Group 2 - The proposed tariffs could lead to increased prices for imported goods, potentially raising inflation in the U.S. and complicating the manufacturing landscape [3] - The U.S. is seeking investments from allied countries in high-end manufacturing sectors, including semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, to bolster its domestic industry [2] - China's share of semiconductor exports to the U.S. is minimal, but the broader implications of tariffs could disrupt supply chains and impact U.S. competitiveness in global markets [3] Group 3 - China is focusing on expanding its domestic market and reducing reliance on the U.S. market, with exports showing a 7.2% year-on-year growth in July [4] - The trade value between China and the U.S. has decreased by 11.1% in the first seven months, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [4] - China's manufacturing sector is expected to strengthen its global position through innovation and leveraging its large domestic market [4]

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan believes that the US dollar is still overvalued by 5% to 15% against major currencies, even after reaching recent lows [1] Group 1: Economic Analysis - The report indicates that the narrowing of cyclical interest rate differentials and ongoing asset allocation adjustments suggest potential downward pressure on the dollar [1] - Factors supporting the expectation of further dollar weakness include the diminishing economic advantage of the US compared to other economies, slowing foreign capital inflows, and increased risk aversion [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The bank continues to advise US investors to diversify their international allocations [1] - Non-US investors are encouraged to manage their dollar exposure effectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed that there is no clear view on whether the US dollar is overvalued [1] Group 1 - Powell's statement indicates uncertainty regarding the valuation of the US dollar in the current economic context [1]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade war has not definitively proven that tariffs can achieve trade rebalancing, but it has clearly triggered signs of global capital rebalancing, which has invigorated the Hong Kong market [1] Group 1: Market Activity - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has purchased over $17 billion to maintain the currency peg [1] - India experienced its first net inflow of foreign capital in May-June this year [1] Group 2: Currency Valuation - The current value of the US dollar is widely considered to be overvalued by 15%-20%, primarily due to significant capital inflows that have driven up the exchange rate [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - In the context of global capital flows and the search for diversified allocations, China's offshore market and A-shares are expected to continue benefiting from capital rebalancing [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Milan Report presents a comprehensive strategy for restructuring the global trade system, emphasizing the need to address the overvaluation of the US dollar as a root cause of global economic imbalances [1][2]. Group 1: Milan Report Insights - The Milan Report, titled "A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trade System," was published by Hudson Bay Capital in November 2024 [1]. - It argues that the persistent overvaluation of the US dollar hinders balanced international trade, stemming from low elastic demand for reserve assets globally [1]. - The report suggests that tariffs can be a unilateral tool for the US government to address dollar overvaluation, allowing other countries to share the cost of the US providing global reserve assets [1]. Group 2: Proposed Strategies - Besides tariffs, the US can utilize both multilateral and unilateral monetary strategies to reduce trade and financial imbalances [2]. - A multilateral strategy involves signing a new version of the Plaza Accord (referred to as the Mar-a-Lago Agreement) with other major countries to encourage their currencies to appreciate against the dollar [2]. - The report also recommends converting US Treasury holdings into ultra-long-term bonds to alleviate repayment pressures on the US government [2]. Group 3: Implications of Tariffs - The report indicates that the first round of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration benefited the US by increasing fiscal revenue and mitigating inflation due to currency depreciation in other countries [3]. - It posits that if China were to devalue the yuan in response to US tariffs, it could lead to a significant capital outflow and financial market turmoil in China [3]. Group 4: Counterarguments and Risks - The analysis overlooks the adjustments already made in the Chinese real estate market prior to the potential new tariffs, with signs of stabilization emerging [4]. - It also fails to recognize that the Chinese government is unlikely to significantly devalue the yuan as a countermeasure to tariff pressures, given the lack of basis for such a move [4]. - The report does not account for China's reduced trade dependency on the US and its strategic shift towards domestic consumption and expanding internal demand [4]. Group 5: Global Cooperation and Currency Dynamics - The report neglects the potential for China to enhance cooperation with other countries to counter US actions, which could lead to improved bilateral relations, particularly with Europe [5]. - It warns that unilateral and multilateral strategies could damage the US's reputation as a global market provider and the dollar's status as a reserve currency, potentially accelerating changes in the international monetary system [5]. - The report suggests that if the US continues down a path of isolationism, it could create opportunities for the internationalization of the yuan, particularly in commodity trading and cross-border settlement [5].

Market Overview - US stock market experienced two consecutive declines ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with Palantir dropping 12% after its earnings report [2][5] - Offshore RMB rose over 100 points, breaking the 7.20 mark, while the Nasdaq 100 gained over 1% in after-hours trading [2] - 10-year US Treasury auction showed strong demand, leading to a decline in bond yields [2][5] - Crude oil prices rebounded nearly 5%, and spot gold surged above $3,400 [2] Key News - He Lifeng will visit Switzerland and France for high-level economic talks, including discussions on US-China trade [3][8] - The EU plans to impose tariffs on $100 billion worth of US goods if trade negotiations fail [9] - The US trade deficit reached a record high of $140.5 billion in March, with imports surging 4.4% to a record $419 billion [10] - Nvidia's CEO projected that China's AI market could reach $50 billion [10] Domestic Macro - China's April Caixin Services PMI was reported at 50.7, indicating a slowdown in new orders [13] - The Chinese government aims for a 5% growth target by 2025, with plans for more proactive macro policies [14] Domestic Companies - Apple is expected to launch a domestic AI version supported by Baidu and Alibaba, ensuring compliance with local regulations [15] Overseas Macro - The US Treasury Department reported a successful 10-year bond auction, indicating a return of overseas demand [16] - Concerns over inflation may lead the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts [16] Industry Insights - The AI Agent development is transforming the software landscape, making databases essential for AI applications [23] - The military industry is facing pressure, with revenue and profit at low levels, but potential recovery is expected in 2025 [23] - The industrial control sector shows signs of recovery, with strong performance from leading companies [23]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the US dollar is currently overvalued by approximately 16%, driven by global capital chasing the attractive returns in the US [1][2][3] - As the US return advantage diminishes, the overvaluation of the dollar is expected to gradually correct, indicating potential mid-term adjustment pressure on dollar-denominated assets [2][9] - Goldman Sachs employs two primary models, GSDEER and GSFEER, to assess dollar valuation, revealing that the actual trade-weighted dollar index is about 16% higher than its fair value [3][4] Group 2 - The GSDEER model, an enhanced version of the purchasing power parity (PPP) model, suggests that the actual exchange rate tends to revert to a long-term mean, influenced by productivity and trade condition differences [4][5] - The GSFEER model focuses on economic imbalances, linking currency valuation to a country's current account and its "standard level," indicating that the dollar is overvalued by approximately 17% [5][6] - The current US current account deficit is around 4%, and if it narrows to 2.6%, it could lead to a 16.5% adjustment in the dollar; further reductions to 2% and 1% could result in 22% and 31% depreciation, respectively [7][8] Group 3 - The research highlights that the degree of dollar overvaluation is highly dependent on the assumptions regarding the current account "standard level," with the US being a relatively closed economy [8] - Historical examples, such as the rapid depreciation of the British pound post-Brexit and the euro during the gas price shock, illustrate that currencies can adjust quickly to reach fair value [8][9] - The article emphasizes that once fair value is reached, currencies can overshoot, and the persistent overvaluation of the dollar may witness gradual adjustments as the US relative return advantage weakens [9]