摩根大通：美元兑主要货币仍被高估5至15% 金十数据7月9日讯，摩根大通认为，即使美元触及本轮低点，根据长期估值模型，美元兑主要货币仍被 高估5%至15%；随着周期性利差收窄及资产配置调整持续，美元料有下行空间。该行报告指出，支持 预期美元进一步走弱的原因包括美国与其他经济体的经济优势收窄、外资流入放慢及避险活动增多。该 行并继续建议美国投资者分散国际配置，非美投资者妥善管理美元曝险。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：对美元是否被高估没有明确的看法。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade war has not definitively proven that tariffs can achieve trade rebalancing, but it has clearly triggered signs of global capital rebalancing, which has invigorated the Hong Kong market [1] Group 1: Market Activity - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has purchased over $17 billion to maintain the currency peg [1] - India experienced its first net inflow of foreign capital in May-June this year [1] Group 2: Currency Valuation - The current value of the US dollar is widely considered to be overvalued by 15%-20%, primarily due to significant capital inflows that have driven up the exchange rate [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - In the context of global capital flows and the search for diversified allocations, China's offshore market and A-shares are expected to continue benefiting from capital rebalancing [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Milan Report presents a comprehensive strategy for restructuring the global trade system, emphasizing the need to address the overvaluation of the US dollar as a root cause of global economic imbalances [1][2]. Group 1: Milan Report Insights - The Milan Report, titled "A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trade System," was published by Hudson Bay Capital in November 2024 [1]. - It argues that the persistent overvaluation of the US dollar hinders balanced international trade, stemming from low elastic demand for reserve assets globally [1]. - The report suggests that tariffs can be a unilateral tool for the US government to address dollar overvaluation, allowing other countries to share the cost of the US providing global reserve assets [1]. Group 2: Proposed Strategies - Besides tariffs, the US can utilize both multilateral and unilateral monetary strategies to reduce trade and financial imbalances [2]. - A multilateral strategy involves signing a new version of the Plaza Accord (referred to as the Mar-a-Lago Agreement) with other major countries to encourage their currencies to appreciate against the dollar [2]. - The report also recommends converting US Treasury holdings into ultra-long-term bonds to alleviate repayment pressures on the US government [2]. Group 3: Implications of Tariffs - The report indicates that the first round of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration benefited the US by increasing fiscal revenue and mitigating inflation due to currency depreciation in other countries [3]. - It posits that if China were to devalue the yuan in response to US tariffs, it could lead to a significant capital outflow and financial market turmoil in China [3]. Group 4: Counterarguments and Risks - The analysis overlooks the adjustments already made in the Chinese real estate market prior to the potential new tariffs, with signs of stabilization emerging [4]. - It also fails to recognize that the Chinese government is unlikely to significantly devalue the yuan as a countermeasure to tariff pressures, given the lack of basis for such a move [4]. - The report does not account for China's reduced trade dependency on the US and its strategic shift towards domestic consumption and expanding internal demand [4]. Group 5: Global Cooperation and Currency Dynamics - The report neglects the potential for China to enhance cooperation with other countries to counter US actions, which could lead to improved bilateral relations, particularly with Europe [5]. - It warns that unilateral and multilateral strategies could damage the US's reputation as a global market provider and the dollar's status as a reserve currency, potentially accelerating changes in the international monetary system [5]. - The report suggests that if the US continues down a path of isolationism, it could create opportunities for the internationalization of the yuan, particularly in commodity trading and cross-border settlement [5].

Market Overview - US stock market experienced two consecutive declines ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with Palantir dropping 12% after its earnings report [2][5] - Offshore RMB rose over 100 points, breaking the 7.20 mark, while the Nasdaq 100 gained over 1% in after-hours trading [2] - 10-year US Treasury auction showed strong demand, leading to a decline in bond yields [2][5] - Crude oil prices rebounded nearly 5%, and spot gold surged above $3,400 [2] Key News - He Lifeng will visit Switzerland and France for high-level economic talks, including discussions on US-China trade [3][8] - The EU plans to impose tariffs on $100 billion worth of US goods if trade negotiations fail [9] - The US trade deficit reached a record high of $140.5 billion in March, with imports surging 4.4% to a record $419 billion [10] - Nvidia's CEO projected that China's AI market could reach $50 billion [10] Domestic Macro - China's April Caixin Services PMI was reported at 50.7, indicating a slowdown in new orders [13] - The Chinese government aims for a 5% growth target by 2025, with plans for more proactive macro policies [14] Domestic Companies - Apple is expected to launch a domestic AI version supported by Baidu and Alibaba, ensuring compliance with local regulations [15] Overseas Macro - The US Treasury Department reported a successful 10-year bond auction, indicating a return of overseas demand [16] - Concerns over inflation may lead the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts [16] Industry Insights - The AI Agent development is transforming the software landscape, making databases essential for AI applications [23] - The military industry is facing pressure, with revenue and profit at low levels, but potential recovery is expected in 2025 [23] - The industrial control sector shows signs of recovery, with strong performance from leading companies [23]

以下文章来源于追风交易台 ，作者追风交易台 追风交易台 . 全球宏观研究、交易、配置，你不能错过 美元贬值可能还没结束？ 据追风交易台消息，高盛分析师Teresa Alves在5月1日的报告中表示，美元目前被高估约16%， 这一估值错配主要由全球资金追逐美国卓越回报前景所驱动。 随着美国回报优势逐渐减弱，美元的高估状态可能将逐步纠正。这对投资者意味着美元资产价值可能面临中期调整压力。 美元高估约16% 高盛采用两种主要模型——GSDEER和GSFEER——评估美元估值， 结果显示实际贸易加权美元指数较其公允价值高出约16%。 美国经常账户赤字与美元调整 高盛研究指出，美元高估程度高度依赖于经常账户"标准水平"的假设。 当前美国实际经常账户赤字约4%，如果经常账户赤字缩小至2.6%，将对应约16.5%的美元调整；若进一步缩小至2%（接近IMF2023年标准值），则可能导致 22%的美元贬值；若降至1%，可能需要31%的美元贬值才能实现。 研究强调，由于美国是相对封闭的经济体（出口占GDP约11%），相比其他更开放的经济体，需要更大幅度的汇率调整才能弥合同等规模的经常账户缺口。 高盛强调，美元估值本身并不是催化剂 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs analysts indicate that the US dollar is currently overvalued by approximately 16%, driven by global capital chasing the superior return prospects of the US. As the US return advantage diminishes, the overvaluation of the dollar may gradually correct, suggesting potential mid-term adjustment pressure on dollar-denominated assets [1][4]. Valuation Models - Goldman Sachs employs two primary models, GSDEER and GSFEER, to assess dollar valuation, revealing that the actual trade-weighted dollar index is about 16% above its fair value [2]. - The GSDEER model, an enhanced version of purchasing power parity (PPP), shows that the dollar is overvalued by approximately 15% against the trade-weighted index, particularly against the yen, yuan, euro, and Canadian dollar, with the most significant mismatches against the yen and yuan [2]. - The GSFEER model, which focuses on economic imbalances, indicates that the dollar is overvalued by about 17%, with over 16% attributed to the deviation of the US current account deficit from its "standard level" [2]. Current Account Deficit and Dollar Adjustment - The degree of dollar overvaluation is highly dependent on the assumptions regarding the current account "standard level." Currently, the US actual current account deficit is around 4% [3]. - If the current account deficit narrows to 2.6%, it could correspond to a 16.5% adjustment in the dollar; further reduction to 2% (close to the IMF 2023 standard) could lead to a 22% depreciation; and a reduction to 1% may require a 31% depreciation [3]. - The research emphasizes that due to the relatively closed nature of the US economy (with exports accounting for about 11% of GDP), a more significant exchange rate adjustment is necessary to address a similar-sized current account gap compared to more open economies [3]. Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical examples show that currencies can rapidly adjust to fair value when significant macroeconomic changes occur, as seen with the British pound post-Brexit and the euro during gas price shocks [3]. - Goldman Sachs suggests that the overvaluation of the dollar has been a persistent phenomenon in recent years, but as the relative return advantage of the US diminishes and potential policy shifts occur, the market may witness a gradual adjustment of the dollar to a more reasonable valuation level [4].