Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - PG main contract significantly increased due to news disturbances in macro and geopolitical aspects. The basis was -20 (-334), and the 11 - 12 monthly spread was 137 (+59). Domestic civil gas prices dropped significantly. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4200 (-250); East China was 4345 (-39), and South China was 4460 (-110). Wanhua added 2300 lots of warehouse receipts. The external market prices tumbled. FEI monthly spread was -10 US dollars (+5), and CP monthly spread was -4 US dollars (+5). The internal - external price difference PG - CP reached 132 (+27); PG - FEI reached 112 (+14). FEI - CP reached 20 (+12.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window closed. The arrival discount of CP propane and butane increased significantly, with South China at 78 (+26). Freight rates dropped sharply, with the US Gulf - Japan at 108 (-18) and the Middle East - Far East at 60.5 (-2.5). FEI - MOPJ narrowed but the switching window remained open, at -71 (-12). PDH - to - propylene profit declined. Inventory pressure was high, with short - term supply pressure large, but supported by chemical demand and the expected recovery of combustion demand. PDH operating rate was 68.76% (-2.12 pct), with Zhongjing Phase II restored, but Bohua under maintenance and Wanda Tianhong having a short - term shutdown; enterprises were expected to gradually increase their loads next week. Although the spot supply pressure was large and the PG basis fell sharply to negative, due to tariff policies and geopolitical disturbances, the futures market might not decline significantly in the short term [1]. 3) Summary According to Related Catalogs Daily Changes - On Tuesday, civil gas showed differentiation, with a rebound in Shandong. In East China, it was 4264 (-74), in Shandong 4200 (+110), and in South China 4420 (-30). Ether - after carbon four was 4390 (-10). The lowest deliverable area was Shandong, with a basis of 49 (+197), and the 11 - 12 monthly spread was 151 (+9). FEI declined and CP fluctuated, at 465 (+2) and 440 (-2) US dollars/ton respectively [1]. Weekly View - The PG main contract rose significantly because of macro and geopolitical news. The basis decreased by 334 to -20, and the 11 - 12 monthly spread increased by 59 to 137. Domestic civil gas prices dropped substantially. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas with a price reduction of 250 to 4200; East China was 4345 (-39), and South China was 4460 (-110). Wanhua added 2300 lots of warehouse receipts. External market prices dropped sharply. FEI and CP monthly spreads increased by 5 US dollars, reaching -10 and -4 respectively. The internal - external price differences PG - CP, PG - FEI, and FEI - CP all increased. The US - Asia arbitrage window closed. The arrival discount of CP propane and butane in South China increased by 26 to 78. Freight rates decreased significantly. FEI - MOPJ narrowed but the switching window was still open. PDH - to - propylene profit decreased. Inventory pressure was high, but there was support from chemical demand and an expected recovery of combustion demand. PDH operating rate decreased by 2.12 pct to 68.76%. Although spot supply pressure was large and the PG basis dropped sharply, the futures market might not decline significantly in the short term due to tariff policies and geopolitical disturbances [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The inventory pressure is high, and the short - term supply pressure is large, but there is support from chemical demand, and the combustion demand is expected to pick up. Although the spot supply pressure is large and the PG basis has dropped significantly and turned negative, due to tariff policies and geopolitical disturbances, the market may not decline significantly in the short term [1]. 3) Key Points from the Table and Analysis - **Price Changes on October 20th - 21st**: - On October 21st, the civil gas prices decreased. In East China, it was 4338 (-7), in Shandong 4090 (-110), and in South China 4450 (-10). The post - ether carbon four was 4400 (-20). The lowest delivery location was Shandong, with a basis of - 161 (-41), and the November - December spread was 138 (+1). FEI and CP decreased to 456 (-15) and 438 (-9) dollars/ton respectively [1]. - **Weekly Changes and Other Information**: - The PG main contract rose significantly due to macro and geopolitical news. The basis was - 20 (-334), and the November - December spread was 137 (+59). Domestic civil gas prices dropped significantly. The cheapest delivery product was Shandong civil gas at 4200 (-250); in East China it was 4345 (-39), and in South China 4460 (-110). Wanhua added 2300 lots of warehouse receipts. The overseas market prices dropped sharply. The FEI - CP spread was 20 (+12.5), and the US - Asia arbitrage window was closed. The CP propane - butane arrival discount in South China increased to 78 (+26). Freight rates decreased significantly. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed but the switching window was still open at - 71 (-12). The profit of PDH to produce propylene decreased. The PDH operating rate was 68.76% (-2.12pct). Next week, the operating enterprises are expected to gradually increase their loads [1].

Group 1: Report's Core View - The PDH profit improvement may lead to increased demand for CP cargo purchases. One can focus on narrowing the PDH profit, but be aware of the risk of the low - opening of the end - of - month CP official price [1] Group 2: Market Data and Changes Daily Changes - On Thursday, civil gas prices declined. In East China, it was 4369 (-5), in Shandong 4280 (-70), and in South China 4500 (-30). Ether - post carbon four was 4460 (+0). The lowest delivery location was Shandong, with a basis of 28 (-174), and the November - December spread was 137 (+8). FEI and CP increased to 474 (+8) and 450 (+1) dollars per ton respectively [1] - The PG futures price dropped significantly. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4384 (+21); in Shandong it was 4450 (-100), and in South China 4570 (-70). The basis was 314 (+188), and the November - December spread was 78 (+0). Warehouse receipts were cancelled to zero in September. The October CP official price opened low at 495/475, the lowest in two years, 40 - 60 dollars lower than expected. The FEI monthly spread was - 15 dollars (-8.5), and the CP monthly spread was - 8.75 dollars (+0.25). The domestic - foreign price difference PG - CP reached 108 (+3); PG - FEI reached 101 (+13). FEI - CP was 7.5 (-10). The US - Asia arbitrage window closed. AFEI was at a discount of - 18.75, and the South China CIF discount was 52. Freight rates dropped significantly, with the US Gulf - Japan at 126 (-5) and the Middle East - Far East at 63 (-5.5). The FEI - MOPJ spread widened significantly to - 83 (-28) [1] Market Conditions - The inventory pressure is small, the supply is abundant, the chemical demand provides strong support, and the combustion demand is gradually picking up. The PDH operating rate is 70.88% (-1.64pct), with some plants like Haiwei, Lihuayi Weiyuan, and Tianjin Bohua shut down, and Zhongjing is expected to resume next week [1]

Report Overview - The report is an LPG morning report released by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on October 14, 2025, providing daily and weekly data on LPG market [1]. Key Data and Changes Price Changes - On October 14, 2025, compared with the previous day, the prices of civil LPG in different regions showed mixed trends: in East China, it was 4386 (+2); in Shandong, it was 4450 (+0); in South China, it was 4560 (-30). The price of ether - post - carbon four was 4480 (-110) [1]. - The lowest delivery location was East China, with the latest basis at 265, and the spread between November and December was 136 (+29) [1]. - FEI and CP dropped significantly, with the latest prices at 470 and 452 US dollars per ton respectively [1]. PG Market Changes - The PG futures price dropped significantly. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil LPG at 4384 (+21); Shandong was 4450 (-100); South China was 4570 (-70). The basis was 314 (+188), and the spread between November and December was 78 (+0) [1]. - The warehouse receipts were cancelled to zero in September. The official price of CP in October opened low at 495/475, the lowest in two years, 40 - 60 US dollars lower than expected [1]. - The FEI monthly spread was -15 US dollars (-8.5), and the CP monthly spread was -8.75 US dollars (+0.25) [1]. - The internal - external price difference: PG - CP reached 108 (+3); PG - FEI reached 101 (+13). FEI - CP was 7.5 (-10). The US - Asia arbitrage window was closed [1]. - AFEI was at a discount of -18.75, and the South China CIF discount was 52. Freight rates dropped significantly, with the US Gulf - Japan at 126 (-5) and the Middle East - Far East at 63 (-5.5). The FEI - MOPJ spread widened significantly to -83 (-28) [1]. PDH Profit - The spot profit of PDH to produce propylene changed little; the profit of producing PP rebounded from a low level. The PDH operating rate was 70.88% (-1.64 pct), with Haiwei, Li Huayi Weiyuan, and Tianjin Bohua shut down, and Zhongjing expected to resume next week [1]. Core View - The LPG market shows that inventory pressure is small, supply is abundant, chemical demand provides strong support, and combustion demand is gradually picking up. With the current high PG basis, low FEI and CP valuations, and the expiration of the China - US tariff truce agreement on November 10, the improvement of PDH profit may lead to an increase in the demand for CP cargo purchases. It is advisable to pay attention to narrowing the PDH profit, but be aware of the risk of the low - opening of the official CP price at the end of the month [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The current PG basis is high, FEI and CP valuations are low. The Sino - US tariff truce agreement will expire on November 10th. The improvement of PDH profit may lead to the purchase demand for CP cargo. One can focus on narrowing PDH profit, but should be aware of the risk of a low - opening CP official price at the end of the month [1] 3. Summary According to the Catalog Price and Basis Information - On Friday, for civil gas, prices had both increases and decreases: East China was 4384 (+4), Shandong was 4450 (+20), and South China was 4590 (-10). Ether - post carbon four was 4590 (-30). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 314 (+6), and the November - December spread was 78 (-16). FEI and CP decreased slightly, at 498 (-2) and 472 (-1) dollars/ton respectively [1] - The PG futures price dropped significantly. The cheapest delivery product was East China civil gas at 4384 (+21); Shandong was 4450 (-100), South China was 4570 (-70). The basis was 314 (+188), and the November - December spread was 78 (+0). Warehouse receipts were cancelled to zero in September. The October CP official price opened low at 495/475, the lowest in two years, 40 - 60 dollars lower than expected [1] Spread and Arbitrage Information - The internal - external spreads were as follows: PG - CP reached 108 (+3); PG - FEI reached 101 (+13). FEI - CP was 7.5 (-10). The US - Asia arbitrage window was closed. AFEI was at a discount of - 18.75, and the South China arrival discount was 52 [1] Freight and Margin Information - Freight rates dropped significantly: US Gulf - Japan was 126 (-5), Middle East - Far East was 63 (-5.5). The FEI - MOPJ spread widened significantly to - 83 (-28). The spot profit margin of PDH to propylene changed little; the profit of producing PP recovered from a low level [1] Inventory and Demand Information - Inventory pressure was small, supply was abundant, chemical demand provided strong support, and combustion demand was gradually picking up. The PDH operating rate was 70.88% (-1.64pct), with Haichang, Lihuayi Weiyuan, and Tianjin Bohua shut down, and Zhongjing expected to resume next week [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The PG main contract fluctuated upward, mainly following the rise in oil prices. In the short - term, Shandong prices are firm, while East China has high supply pressure and is expected to remain weak overall. The external market is expected to be volatile and weak under the expectations of high supply and a slowdown in the year - on - year growth rate of winter demand, despite the seasonal increase [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - **Daily Price Changes**: From September 22 - 26, 2025, in the spot market, the price of South China LPG increased from 4640 to 4650 (+50), East China from 4385 to 4393 (+6), and Shandong from 4550 to 4580 (+10). The price of ether - post carbon four remained at 4620. The paper import profit increased by 42, and the main contract basis decreased by 17 [1]. - **Futures Market**: The PG main contract fluctuated upward. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4373 (-42), Shandong at 4570 (+40), and South China at 4640 (-10). The basis was 103 (+113), the 10 - 11 spread was 148 (+83), and the 11 - 12 spread was 79 (+19). The number of warehouse receipts was 14327 (+1353) [1]. - **External Market**: The FEI monthly spread dropped 2.5 to - 8.5 dollars, and the CP monthly spread rose 1.5 to - 13 dollars. The FEI - CP spread was 1 (-5), and the US - Asia arbitrage window was closed [1]. 3.2 Weekly Outlook - **Domestic Market**: Before the holiday, upstream inventory was cleared, arrivals decreased, propane chemical demand increased, and combustion demand replenished stocks. The PDH operating rate was 69.48% (+4.34 percentage points), and it is expected to rise next week [1]. - **External Market**: Although there is a seasonal increase, under the expectations of high supply and a slowdown in the year - on - year growth rate of winter demand, it is expected to be volatile and weak overall [1]. 3.3 Daily Changes - The basis was 103 (+96), and the 10 - 11 spread was 35 (+148). As of 9:00 am, FEI and CP c1 fluctuated, at 548 (-2) and 545 (+1) respectively [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The LPG market is expected to remain weak overall. The cheapest delivery location is Shandong, where the supply is abundant due to incoming resources, while the chemical demand is declining [1]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Information Price and Basis - **Domestic Prices**: On September 17, 2025, the prices in East China were 4499 (-5), in Shandong were 4540 (+10), and in South China were 4550 (+10). The price of ether - post - carbon four was 4720 (-70). The lowest delivery location was East China [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of the PG main contract weakened to 51 (-74). The 10 - 11 month spread was 49 (-20), and the 11 - 12 month spread was 62 (+3) [1]. - **External Prices**: FEI and CP were 561 (+3) and 552 (+2) dollars/ton respectively. The FEI month spread decreased slightly to -5, and the CP month spread decreased to -11. The external prices increased, with the FEI month spread +1, the MB month spread unchanged, and the CP month spread -2.5 [1]. - **Internal - External Price Difference**: The internal - external price difference decreased slightly. PG - CP was 75 (-3); PG - FEI was 67.6 (-9.3). FEI - CP was 7.5 (+6.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window was closed [1]. Inventory and Demand - **Inventory**: Port inventory and factory inventory both increased. Incoming shipments decreased, while outward shipments increased slightly, but demand narrowed [1]. - **Demand**: Chemical demand declined. The PDH operating rate was 70.49% (-2.61). The operating rates of alkylation and MTBE both decreased [1]. Profitability - **Production Profits**: The profit of PDH to produce PP continued to weaken, and the production gross margins of alkylated oil and MTBE were low [1]. Freight - Freight rates continued to rise. The latest freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 155 (+11), and from the Middle East to the Far East was 82 (+7) [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - With oil prices falling, the PG spot market is weak, and both civil gas and ether - post carbon four prices have declined. The overall market is expected to remain weak due to sufficient supply from incoming resources and a decline in chemical demand, especially with the drop in PDH, alkylation, and MTBE operating rates [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Changes - **Spot Prices**: Civil gas prices in East China are at a low of 4507 (+0), in Shandong 4500 (+0), and in South China 4550 (-40). Ether - post carbon four is at 4760 (-40). The lowest delivery location is Shandong [1] - **Futures Prices**: The PG main contract fluctuates strongly. The cheapest deliverable is Shandong civil gas at 4500. The basis weakens to 51 (-74), the 10 - 11 month spread is 49 (-20), and the 11 - 12 month spread is 62 (+3) [1] - **External Prices**: FEI and CP drop slightly by 2 dollars to 550 and 546 dollars/ton respectively. FEI month - spread is +1, MB month - spread is unchanged, and CP month - spread is -2.5. The internal - external price difference decreases slightly [1] Market Conditions - **Inventory**: Port and factory inventories increase as inbound shipments decrease, outbound shipments increase slightly, but demand narrows [1] - **Demand**: Chemical demand drops. PDH operating rate is 70.49% (-2.61), with some plants resuming, others under maintenance or reducing loads. Alkylation and MTBE operating rates also decline [1] - **Arbitrage and Freight**: The US - Asia arbitrage window closes. Freight rates continue to rise, with the US Gulf - Japan at 155 (+11) and the Middle East - Far East at 82 (+7) [1]

报告行业投资评级 - Not provided 报告的核心观点 - PG main contract fluctuates weakly, with the cheapest deliverable being East China civil LPG at 4481. The basis first weakens then strengthens to 70 (+59). The 9 - 10 spread is -721 (-212), and the 10 - 11 spread is 87 (+7). The registered warrant volume is 13207 lots (+320). The September CP official price remains stable, with propane and butane at 520/490. The fundamentals show that port inventories are decreasing, refinery commercial volume increases by 2.47%, and overall, the market is expected to rise steadily [1] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 日度变化 - The daily change shows that the price of South China LPG remains unchanged, East China LPG increases by 5, Shandong LPG remains unchanged, propane CFR South China increases by 6, propane CIF Japan increases by 5, MB propane spot decreases by 1, CP forecast contract price decreases by 1, Shandong ether - post - carbon four increases by 20, Shandong alkylated oil remains unchanged, paper import profit decreases by 47, and the main basis increases by 3. P - to - PP production profit weakens, CP production cost is lower than FEI. The PG futures fluctuates, and the 10 - 11 spread is 87 (+10). The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window is closed. The cheapest deliverable on Friday is East China civil LPG at 4481 [1] 周度观点 - The PG main contract fluctuates weakly. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil LPG at 4481. The basis first weakens then strengthens to 70 (+59). The 9 - 10 spread is -721 (-212), the 10 - 11 spread is 87 (+7). The registered warrant volume is 13207 lots (+320). The September CP official price remains stable, with propane and butane at 520/490. FEI and CP spreads fluctuate, MB spreads strengthen, and the oil - gas ratio changes little. The domestic - foreign spread fluctuates. The PG - CP is 106, the PG - FEI is 85, and the FEI - CP is 21.5 (+4.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window fluctuates and is closed. The AFEI offshore discount is 5.5 (-0.5), and the CP South China CIF discount is 65 (+8). Freight rates are flat, the waiting time at the Panama Canal decreases, but the auction fee remains high. The FEI - MOPJ widens to -56 (-10), and the naphtha crack spread strengthens slightly. PDH spot profit changes little, and paper profit fluctuates downward. The production gross profit of alkylated oil declines. MTBE gross profit decreases. Fundamentally, port inventories are decreasing, refinery commercial volume increases by 2.47%, and plant inventories increase but are generally controllable. PDH operating rate is 73.02% (-2.64pct), Wanhua Phase II is under maintenance, and Quanzhou Guoheng restarts at the end of the week. Next week, Quanzhou Guoheng is expected to increase production, and Hebei Haiwei plans to shut down. The alkylation operating rate is 48.42% (+0.74), and the MTBE operating rate is 63.54% (+0). Although the peak season is coming to an end, demand remains weak. East China is the cheapest delivery area, with expected tight supply, improved demand, and increased import costs, and the overall market rises steadily [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - For pure benzene, last week's supply increased with a new Jingbo plant producing products and no new device maintenance. August's supply is expected to continue rising. Imports are expected to decline in August as the US - Asia arbitrage window closed and the China - South Korea price difference is weak. In the short - term, demand may rise or remain stable due to the commissioning of Jingbo's styrene plant and high operating rates of caprolactam and aniline. In the long - run, demand may weaken due to weak downstream profits. Inventory is expected to decrease, and the current valuation is low [4]. - For styrene, last week's supply decreased. There were no new maintenance devices, but overall supply was high in August and may tighten in September due to multiple device overhauls. Downstream "Three S" comprehensive operating rates are weak, and demand is poor with high inventory. However, current downstream comprehensive profits are good, and short - term operating rates are expected to remain stable. Inventory is expected to continue increasing, and the valuation is neutral [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene Supply - There are no new device overhauls, and the current operating rate is at a high level, so supply is expected to continue increasing. The restart of some devices and the commissioning of new ones are expected to increase August's output by 70,000 tons month - on - month, still facing great supply pressure [5][16]. Demand - Downstream overall operating rates are high. With the commissioning of the new downstream styrene plant, overall demand is expected to be good [5]. Inventory - Last week, the East China port inventory was 152,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons. Overall, pure benzene supply and demand are both increasing, and subsequent inventory is expected to decrease [45]. Valuation - The BZN spread is weak, and the overall valuation of pure benzene is not high [45]. Month - to - Month Spread - Pure benzene is expected to see inventory reduction, and the paper - goods month - to - month spread structure has shifted to the B structure, with the spread likely to strengthen later [5]. Styrene Supply - New device commissioning is expected to increase August's supply, but it may contract in September due to more overhauls. Last week, the operating rate decreased, and overall supply declined. With the commissioning of Jingbo and the restart of overhauled devices, August's supply is expected to increase by about 48,000 tons month - on - month [5][61]. Demand - Downstream "Three S" operating rates remain stable but are weak. Overall downstream profits are good, and demand is expected to remain stable. Currently, the "Three S" are in the off - season, with certain demand resilience, but high inventory may lead to weaker demand later [5][94]. Inventory - Last week, the East China port inventory decreased to 150,500 tons, the South China port inventory increased to 14,500 tons, and the overall port inventory decreased to 165,000 tons. Overall, styrene inventory is expected to increase later [91][94]. Valuation - The BZ - SM spread has decreased significantly, and the styrene valuation is neutral [4]. Month - to - Month Spread - The pattern of strong supply and weak demand combined with improved long - term expectations is expected to maintain the C structure [5]. External Market Support - The US - Asia arbitrage window has been continuously closed. In the first 10 days of August, 38,725 tons of pure benzene were imported from South Korea, a significant month - on - month decrease compared to July and a year - on - year low [5]. Regional Market Conditions Pure Benzene - In North America, there is a large amount of pure benzene inventory due to advance stocking in anticipation of tariffs and poor downstream demand. In Western Europe, traditional downstream demand is sluggish, and pure benzene profits have deteriorated, with Brazilian pure benzene possibly being resold to Europe. In Asia, the US - Asia arbitrage window is closed, and China's pure benzene demand remains stable [50]. Styrene - In North America, the spot market is weak, sellers are reluctant to sell due to low profits, and tariffs have weakened styrene's export competitiveness. In Western Europe, supply is relatively stable, but demand is weak. In Asia, China's downstream demand is stable, while demand outside China remains weak, and styrene production is in the red. Southeast Asian overhauls in August may tighten supply. The US - Europe arbitrage window is open, and the US - Asia arbitrage window is closed [110].