【摩根大通：美股短期或回调，年底前仍有望涨至7000点】摩根大通发布最新展望，指出美股虽有望年 底前冲击7000点，但投资者要警惕短期回调风险。市场情报团队报告称，下周美股或温和下行，之后进 入"决胜时刻"，有望11月前加速升至7000点。 分析师指出，季节性疲软、反弹幅度过大、长期缺乏回 调、散户情绪过热、宏观事件落地等因素，或带来短期下行压力。不过从现在到年底，美股上涨可能性 仍大于下跌，团队维持"战术性看涨"，建议抄底回调。 摩根大通列举五大短期下行风险：一是季节性 因素，9、10月市场表现常平淡；二是反弹幅度过大，此次反弹强度超多数年份；三是长期缺乏回调， 标普500指数93天未现3%以上回调；四是散户情绪过热，接近一年来高点；五是市场已消化美联储降息 预期。 尽管有短期风险，摩根大通对美股中长期前景仍有信心。季节性因素长期看是利好，投资者仓 位突破下降趋势，空头仓位情况或助推股指，美联储降息后股市常表现好，年底股票ETF资金流入或走 强。 美国消费者现金储备创纪录，支撑摩根大通的乐观看法。2025年二季度消费者现金储备达21.8万亿 美元，多数收入群体现金持有量高于2019年，推动消费增长和GDP提 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market continues its upward trend, supported by positive signals from high-level communications and the ongoing favorable effects of potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, despite a slight decline in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index [1][1][1] Group 1: Market Performance - The U.S. stock market experienced a high opening and continued to rise, avoiding a low opening that could trigger selling pressure, particularly on a significant options expiration day [1][1] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's decline indicates potential pressure on technology stocks, with Micron and TSMC ADR both closing lower [1][1][1] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - Micron's stock ended a 12-day winning streak ahead of its earnings report, suggesting that some investors are taking profits before the announcement [1][1] - The upcoming earnings report on September 23 will be crucial for Micron, as its current stock price reflects optimistic expectations; disappointing results could lead to significant volatility not only for Micron but also for the semiconductor sector and the broader U.S. stock market [1][1][1] Group 3: Upcoming Economic Indicators - Key economic events are approaching, including the PMI data release on September 23, Jerome Powell's economic outlook on September 24, and the August PCE data on September 26, which will be important variables influencing the future direction of the U.S. stock market [1][1][1]

上证报中国证券网讯 9月19日早盘，美股三大股指全线上涨。北京时间21时42分，道指上涨0.05%，标 普500指数上涨0.19%，纳指上涨0.34%。今年以来，纳指累计涨幅已经超过16%。 来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 数据来源：Wind | 名称 | 现价 | | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 道現斯工业指数 | 46164.85 22.43 0.05% | | | 8.51% | | 纳斯达克指数 | 22547.38 c 76.65 0.34% 16.76% | | | | | 标普500 | 6644.67 12.71 0.19% 12.97% | | | | ...

格隆汇9月15日｜瑞银全球新兴市场股票首席策略师Sunil Tirumalai表示，今年以来新兴市场股市之所以 能跑赢美股，关键并不在于外资的大规模流入，而在于内资，尤其是本土散户资金的强劲推动。虽然企 业获利预期有所下调，且市场一度对美国加征关税风险保持高度关注，但投资人更聚焦于AI、科技等 热门族群，令整体市场情绪保持乐观。 展望今年下半年，除关税外，Sunil提醒投资人亦须关注美国经济放缓及全球成长降温的潜在风险，同 时也应留意美国以外地区通膨缓解及货币政策放松带来的正面效应。他认为，若多重周期性因素叠加， 如美国经济放缓速度快于其他国家、美国实质利率下降及美元大贬，新兴市场在6 到12 个月内料将跑赢 美股，但此种优势更多是周期性的，而非结构性的。 ...

转自：智通财经 【知名分析师Yardeni上调美股目标 称标普指数年内有望涨至7000点】智通财经9月12日电，华尔街资深 策略师Ed Yardeni将他对标普500指数年底的基线目标从之前的6,600点提高至6,800点，同时认为美国股 市这个基准指数有25%的概率在期内"融涨"至7,000点。新目标意味着该指数从周三收盘位6,532点再上 涨4.1%。Yardeni将新目标归因于稳定的通胀数据和美联储下周降息的预期。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the US stock market opened higher and continued to rise, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 1% during the day, setting a new historical high [1]

Report Summary Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index opened 145 points higher but then declined, closing down 284 points or 1.1% at 25,058 points. The H-share Index fell 112 points or 1.3% to 8,937 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 104 points or 1.8% to 5,578 points. The total turnover of the market was HK$302.233 billion [1]. - A-share market indices declined significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 47 points or 1.25% to 3765 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 353 points or 2.83% to 12118 points, and the ChiNext Index down 123 points or 4.25% to 2776 points [1]. - U.S. stocks opened lower and closed higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 350 points or 0.8% to 45,621 points, the S&P 500 Index increased 53 points or 0.8% to 6,502 points (a new closing high), and the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 209 points or 1% to 21,707 points [2]. Policy and News - The People's Bank of China conducted 7-day reverse repurchase operations worth RMB212.6 billion on September 4, with an operating rate of 1.4%. There were RMB416.1 billion of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of RMB203.5 billion. The central parity rate of the RMB against the U.S. dollar was raised by 56 points to 7.1052 [1]. - U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Thursday to implement a trade agreement with Japan. Under the agreement, the U.S. will impose a maximum 15% tariff on most Japanese goods, including automobiles and parts [2]. Hong Kong Stock Exchange Data - The Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (00388.HK) reported that the average daily trading volume in August 2025 reached HK$279.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 192%. The average daily trading volume for the first eight months of the year was HK$248.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 132%. There were 59 new listings in the first eight months, up 37% from 43 in the same period in 2024. The IPO fundraising amount in the Hong Kong stock market reached HK$134.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 579% [2].

Market Performance - The US stock market indices experienced declines, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.55%, the S&P 500 down by 0.69%, and the Nasdaq decreasing by 0.82%. In contrast, the Golden Dragon Index, which reflects the performance of Chinese concept stocks, rose by 0.52% [1]. A-share and Hong Kong Market - The A-share market could not maintain its upward momentum, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 0.45% to close at 3,858 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index falling by 2.14% to 12,553 points, marking a halt after three consecutive rises. The total trading volume in both markets reached 2.9 trillion RMB [2]. - The Hong Kong stock market also showed weakness, with the Hang Seng Index initially rising over 100 points but later declining by more than 200 points to a low of 25,416 points, ultimately closing at 25,496 points, down by 0.47%. The Tech Index closed at 5,728 points, down by 1.2%, with a total trading volume of 328 billion HKD [2]. - Notable declines were observed in technology stocks, with Alibaba falling by 1.75%, Meituan down by 1.9%, and JD.com decreasing by 1.5%. Semiconductor manufacturer SMIC saw a drop of over 4.6%, while Sunny Optical and China Hongqiao also experienced declines exceeding 3% [2]. Gold Market - Gold prices surpassed 3,500 USD, reaching a historical high. However, gold mining stocks showed mixed performance, with Lingbao Gold and Zhaojin Gold rising by 1.6% and 2.1%, respectively, while Shandong Gold and Zijin Mining both fell by over 1.7% [2]. Market Outlook - Despite the overall market decline, the drop was relatively limited, and investors are expected to continue monitoring A-share performance. The Hang Seng Index remains above the 10-day (25,335 points) and 20-day moving averages (25,239 points), which could support a challenge to last week's high of 25,918 points [3]. - Following Alibaba's surprising earnings report, there is optimism that the Hong Kong market may continue its upward trend and challenge the 10-day moving average level of 25,254 points [3].

Market Performance - The Nasdaq Composite Index fell by 1.6% [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 1.02% [1] - The S&P 500 Index dropped by 1.32% [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Nasdaq Composite Index falling by 1.6% [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 1.02% [1] - The S&P 500 Index dropped by 1.32% [1]