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市场快讯:苹果谨慎追涨
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 07:20
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the given report 2) Core View of the Report - Since August, the Apple 10 contract has risen for multiple consecutive trading days, with the AP2510 contract up 1.27% as of the 11th. The quality differentiation of early - maturing apples has led to concerns about the quality of deliverable Fuji apples. The market is in a state where long and short factors are intertwined, and the futures market shows a volatile pattern [3] 3) Summary by Related Content Apple Futures Market Performance - The Apple 10 contract has been rising for multiple consecutive trading days in August, and the AP2510 contract had a 1.27% increase as of August 11th [3] Situation of Early - Maturing Apples - In the western producing areas, the early - maturing Gala apples have been gradually listed. Due to high - temperature weather, there are problems such as difficult coloring, and the large - scale listing time is expected to be delayed compared with previous years. In the Shandong producing area, the current supply of Luli apples is average, and the trading price is stable. Some early - maturing apple varieties in Shandong and high - quality paper - bagged Gala apples in Shaanxi have higher listing prices than last year. However, due to climate factors, the proportion of high - quality apples has decreased, and the mainstream price has shown a downward trend after the high - price start [3] Forecast of New - Season Apple Yield and Price - The preliminary estimate of the new - season apple yield shows a limited reduction. The reference range for the opening price is 3.2 - 3.5 yuan per catty (equivalent to 7,500 - 8,500 yuan per ton). Under normal climate conditions in major producing areas, the spot price has a bottom support, but the upside is limited [3]
瑞达期货苹果产业日报-20250807
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 10:00
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Thursday, the Apple 2510 contract closed up 0.43%. New - season apple production is expected to be 3736.64 million tons, a 2.35% increase from the 2024 - 2025 season. As of August 6, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 53.39 million tons, a decrease of 8.02 million tons from last week, with a slightly slower shipment speed compared to last week and basically the same as last year. The old - crop inventory is low with little sales pressure, and the trading is priced according to quality, with an overall slowdown in shipment speed. Some early - maturing varieties' purchase prices are falling, while the opening price of Gala apples is acceptable. With the old - crop inventory still providing some support but a general trading atmosphere, the price is expected to fluctuate within a range. Technically, the Apple 2510 contract is expected to continue rising in the short term and has stood above the 20 - day moving average. It is recommended to trade with a light - position trial long, while controlling risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple contract was 7940 yuan/ton, the main - contract holding volume was 73071 hands, the warehouse - receipt quantity was 0, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was 1066 hands. The main - contract holding volume decreased by 1543 hands, and the net long position decreased by 712 hands [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia, Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, and Shaanxi Luochuan remained unchanged, at 4 yuan/jin, 4 yuan/jin, 2.4 yuan/jin, and 4 yuan/jin respectively [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple production was 5128.51 million tons, the apple wholesale price was 9.75 yuan/kg (a weekly increase of 0.03 yuan/kg), and the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.67 yuan/kg (a weekly decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg) [2] Industry Situation - The national apple cold - storage total inventory was 53.39 million tons, a decrease of 8.22 million tons from last week. The storage - capacity ratios of Shandong and Shaanxi apples were 0.09 and 0.02 respectively, both decreasing by 0.01 from last week. The monthly apple export volume was 40000 tons, a decrease of 10000 tons; the monthly apple export value was 4330.8 million US dollars, and the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts was 1955488 - 245562.17 million US dollars. The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bag 80 apple storage merchants was 0.6 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The average wholesale prices of tangerines, bananas, and watermelons were 10.64 yuan/kg, 3.73 yuan/kg, and 5.92 yuan/kg respectively. The average wholesale price of bananas decreased by 0.08 yuan/kg, and that of watermelons decreased by 0.05 yuan/kg. The early - morning average daily arrival vehicle numbers at the Guangdong Jiangmen, Xiaqiao, and Chalong wholesale markets were 7.4, 10, and 15.6 respectively, with an increase of 0.6 vehicles at the Jiangmen market and 1 vehicle at the Chalong market [2] Option Market - The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options for apples were 20%, with decreases of 0.9% and 0.84% respectively [2] Industry News - On August 7, 2025, early - maturing Gala and Luli apples in the western production areas were on the market, with general purchasing enthusiasm from merchants and transactions priced according to quality. In the Shandong production area, smooth - skinned Luli apples were gradually on the market, with chaotic prices due to fruit size and redness. The inventory of Fuji apples remained light in the market, with prices stable but weak [2]
苹果产业日报-20250731
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 09:33
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - On July 31, 2025, the supply of early - maturing apples in the west was average with poor coloring and weak market feedback. The trading speed of Shandong's inventory Fuji apples was average, and farmers were selling with price concessions. The Apple 2510 contract continued to decline and was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. It was recommended to wait and see [2]. - The purchase price of early - maturing varieties declined, and farmers' price concessions pressured the apple market. The old - crop inventory was low with little sales pressure, but the overall shipment speed slowed down [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the October contract for apples was 7814 yuan/ton, the main - contract position volume was 88131 hands, the number of warehouse receipts was 0, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was 2395 hands. Compared with the previous period, the main - contract position volume decreased by 5697 hands, and the net long position decreased by 1234 hands [2]. Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia, Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, and Shaanxi Luochuan remained unchanged compared with the previous period [2]. Upstream Situation - The national apple output was 5128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons compared with the previous period. The weekly average wholesale price of apples was 9.72 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.73 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.16 yuan/kg [2]. - The total national apple cold - storage inventory was 70.45 million tons, a decrease of 10.15 million tons. The capacity utilization ratio of Shandong apple cold - storage was 0.04, a decrease of 0.01; that of Shaanxi was 0.11, a decrease of 0.01. The monthly export volume of apples was 40000 tons, a decrease of 10000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import value of fresh, dried fruits and nuts was 4330.8 million US dollars, and the monthly export value of apples was 1955488 - 245562.17 million US dollars (the specific calculation result is not clear from the text). The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants was 0.7 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous period [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines was 10.04 yuan/kg, that of bananas was 3.81 yuan/kg, and that of watermelons was 5.97 yuan/kg. The daily average number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Guangdong Jiangmen, Xiaqiao, and Chalong wholesale markets was 6.8, 8.8, and 14.6 respectively, with changes of - 0.09, - 0.4, and - 2 compared with the previous period [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for apples was 22.48%, an increase of 0.22% compared with the previous period [2]. Industry News - On July 31, 2025, the supply of early - maturing apples in the west was average with poor coloring and weak market feedback. The trading speed of Shandong's inventory Fuji apples was average, and farmers were selling with price concessions. The Apple 2510 contract closed down 1.33% on Thursday [2]. - According to preliminary estimates based on bagging volume survey data, the national apple output in the new season will be 3736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons (2.35%) compared with the 2024 - 2025 production season [2]. - As of July 30, 2025, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 61.61 million tons, a decrease of 8.84 million tons compared with the previous week. The shipment speed slowed down slightly compared with the previous week and was basically the same as the same period last year [2]. - The capacity utilization ratio of Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu apple cold - storages was 10.10%, 2.91%, and 2.05% respectively, with decreases of 1.02%, 0.74%, and 0.72% compared with the previous week. The shipment in the Gansu production area was sporadic [2]. - In some production areas, the early - maturing apples had serious regreening problems, and the actual transaction prices of varieties such as Qinyang, Meiba, and Luli decreased by 0.30 - 0.50 yuan/jin [2].
苹果产业日报-20250730
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 10:42
Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The Apple 2510 contract continues its adjustment trend, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [3] - The overall acquisition price of early - maturing apple varieties has declined, weakening price support, and affected by capital flow [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the October contract for apples is 7915 yuan/ton, and the position of the main contract is 93828 lots, a decrease of 9760 lots compared to the previous period; the number of warehouse receipts is 0, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 3629 lots, a decrease of 246 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia, Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, and Shaanxi Luochuan remain unchanged compared to the previous period [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons; the weekly wholesale price of apples is 9.72 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.73 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.16 yuan/kg [2] Industry Situation - The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 70.45 million tons, a decrease of 10.15 million tons compared to the previous week; the storage capacity ratio in Shandong is 0.11, a decrease of 0.01; the storage capacity ratio in Shaanxi is 0.04, a decrease of 0.01; the monthly export volume of apples is 40000 tons; the monthly export value of apples is 4330.8 million US dollars, and the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1955488 - 245562.17 million US dollars; the weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.7 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 10.04 yuan/kg, the weekly wholesale price of bananas is 5.97 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.09 yuan/kg, the weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 3.81 yuan/kg; the early - morning average daily vehicle arrivals at Guangdong Jiangmen, Xiaqiao, and Chalong wholesale markets are 6.8, 8.8, and 14.6 vehicles respectively, with changes of 1, 0, and - 2 vehicles compared to the previous period [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for apples is 22.26%, a decrease of 0.47% [2] Industry News - On July 30, 2025, the trading of inventory fruits in the western production areas is basically over, and the remaining goods are mostly picked up by merchants and sent to the market. The supply of early - maturing apples has slightly increased, but the coloring is not satisfactory, and the price shows a slow decline. The sales of inventory apples in Shandong are average, with fruit farmers eager to sell. The Apple 2510 contract closed down 0.31% on Wednesday. According to preliminary estimates, the national apple output in the new season will be 3736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared to the 2024 - 2025 production season [2] Viewpoint Summary - As of July 23, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory is 70.45 million tons, a decrease of 10.15 million tons compared to the previous week. The storage capacity ratios in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu are 11.12%, 3.65%, and 2.77% respectively, with decreases of 1.03%, 0.98%, and 0.92% compared to the previous week. The old - crop inventory is low, and the sales pressure is small. The trading is priced according to quality [2]
苹果产业日报-20250729
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 09:48
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The old - crop apple inventory is low with little sales pressure, and transactions are priced according to quality. Some early - maturing varieties have a serious regreening phenomenon, and the actual transaction prices of varieties such as Qinyang, Meiba, and Luli have dropped by 0.30 - 0.50 yuan per jin. The purchase price of early - maturing varieties has declined, weakening the price support. Coupled with the influence of capital flow, the apple futures rose and then fell. On Tuesday, the 2510 contract significantly reduced positions and corrected, giving back the decline of the past week. It is recommended to close long positions and wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the October contract for apples is 7,908 yuan/ton; the holding volume of the main contract is 103,588 hands, a decrease of 23,673 hands. The number of warehouse receipts is 0, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 3,875 hands, a decrease of 1,846 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80, second - grade fruit farmer's goods) is 4 yuan/jin [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5,128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons; the average wholesale price of apples is 9.75 yuan/kg; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.73 yuan/kg; the total inventory of national apple cold storages is 70.45 million tons, a decrease of 10.15 million tons; the storage capacity ratio of Shandong apples is 11.12%, a decrease of 1.03%; the storage capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples is 3.65%, a decrease of 0.98%; the storage capacity ratio of Gansu apples is 2.77%, a decrease of 0.92%; the monthly export volume of apples is 40,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons; the monthly export value of apples is 4,330.8 million US dollars; the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1,955,488 million US dollars, a decrease of 245,562.17 million US dollars; the profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.7 yuan/jin [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The average wholesale price of tangerines is 10.04 yuan/kg; the wholesale price of bananas is 3.92 yuan/kg; the wholesale price of watermelons is 6.06 yuan/kg; the early - morning average daily arrival volume at the Guangdong Jiangmen Wholesale Market is 6.8 vehicles, an increase of 1 vehicle; the early - morning average daily arrival volume at the Guangdong Xiaqiao Wholesale Market is 14.6 vehicles; the early - morning average daily arrival volume at the Guangdong Chalong Wholesale Market is 8.8 vehicles, a decrease of 2 vehicles [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 22.73%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 22.73% [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On July 29, 2025, the trading of inventory apples in the western production areas basically ended, and the remaining goods were mainly shipped by merchants themselves. The coloring of early - maturing apples was slow, and the redness was slightly poor. The actual transaction prices of varieties such as Qinyang, Meiba, and Luli decreased by 0.30 - 0.50 yuan/jin. In the Shandong production area, the number of inquiring merchants increased, the trading was smooth at the right price, and the trading atmosphere improved slightly. The apple 2510 contract closed down 3.1% on Tuesday. According to the preliminary estimate of the bagging volume survey data by Mysteel, the national apple output is expected to be 3,736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared with the 2024 - 2025 production season [2]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - As of July 23, 2025, the inventory of national main - producing area apple cold storages was 70.45 million tons, a decrease of 10.15 million tons compared with last week. The shipping speed was about the same as last week and basically the same as last year. The storage capacity ratio in the Shandong production area was 11.12%, a decrease of 1.03% compared with last week, and the de - stocking speed was still average. The storage capacity ratio in the Shaanxi production area was 3.65%, a decrease of 0.98% compared with last week, and the shipping was slightly faster than last week. The storage capacity ratio in the Gansu production area was 2.77%, a decrease of 0.92% compared with last week, and the shipping in the Gansu production area was sporadic [2].
7月24日宏辉果蔬(603336)涨停分析:控制权变更、业务转型驱动
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-24 07:27
Core Viewpoint - Honghui Fruits and Vegetables experienced a limit-up closing on July 24, with a closing price of 7.72 yuan, driven by multiple positive factors including a change in control and business transformation [1] Group 1: Company Developments - The change in control to Suzhou Shenzhiruitai, a state-owned entity, is expected to bring strategic upgrades and potential industrial synergies, boosting market confidence [1] - The company's vegetable business is projected to see a significant sales increase of 64.21% year-on-year in 2024, indicating the effectiveness of its dual-driven strategy [1] - Operational quality has improved, with a projected 11-fold year-on-year increase in operating cash flow for 2024, reflecting enhanced operational capabilities [1] - The risk of shareholder pledges has been alleviated, as all 36.8 million shares pledged by the top ten shareholders have been released, enhancing equity stability [1] - There is optimistic market sentiment regarding the upcoming interim financial report expected to be disclosed on August 29 [1] Group 2: Market Performance - On July 24, the net inflow of main funds was 52.28 million yuan, accounting for 25.53% of the total transaction volume, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 22.28 million yuan, representing 10.88% of the total [2] - The agricultural planting sector experienced a 3.35% increase on the same day, contributing to the positive market environment for Honghui Fruits and Vegetables [4]
苹果产业日报-20250723
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 09:05
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The current apple inventory is at a low level in the same period of the past five years, and the purchase price of early - maturing varieties has increased slightly year - on - year, supporting the price to fluctuate strongly. However, the large - scale listing of summer fruits has impacted the apple demand, and the potential increase in the new - season apple production may restrain the price trend. In the short term, the apple price is expected to show a volatile and slightly upward trend. It is recommended to focus on the production situation in the future, and the operation strategy is to go long on dips while controlling risks [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the October apple contract is not specified in the table, the main contract's open interest is 7956 hands, a decrease of 1666 hands compared with the previous period; the apple warehouse receipt quantity is 0, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 4434 hands, a decrease of 1418 hands [2] Spot Market - The spot price of Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged apples above 80 grade 2, farmer - sourced) is 4 yuan per jin [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple production is 5128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons compared with the previous period [2] Industry Situation - The weekly apple wholesale price is 9.75 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.01 yuan; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 80.6 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 10.89 yuan; the total national apple cold - storage inventory is 9.89 million tons, a decrease of 0.23 million tons; the Shandong apple storage capacity ratio is 0.12, a decrease of 0.01; the Shaanxi apple storage capacity ratio is 0.05, a decrease of 0.01; the monthly apple export volume is 40000 tons, a decrease of 10000 tons; the monthly apple export value is 4330.8 million US dollars, and the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 1955488 million US dollars, a decrease of 245562.17 million US dollars; the weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.7 yuan per jin, a decrease of 0.2 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 9.63 yuan per kilogram, the weekly wholesale price of bananas is 6.06 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 0.09 yuan; the weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 3.92 yuan per kilogram; the early - morning average daily arrival volume at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 5.8 vehicles, a decrease of 2 vehicles; the early - morning average daily arrival volume at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 9.2 vehicles, a decrease of 1.8 vehicles; the early - morning average daily arrival volume at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 16.6 vehicles, a decrease of 2.8 vehicles [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 15.75%, a decrease of 0.59%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 15.75%, a decrease of 0.59% [2] Industry News - On July 23, 2025, the trading of inventory apples in the western production area basically ended, with a small amount of remaining goods mainly sold by merchants for their own use, and the price was stable. The market for inventory apples in the Shandong production area was weak, the trading of farmer - sourced apples was slow, and purchasers pressured prices, resulting in many transactions at discounted prices. The early - maturing apples in the western production area continued to be listed, and the transaction price of varieties such as Yuncheng smooth - skinned Gala was basically the same as last year. The apple 2510 contract rose 0.73% on Wednesday. According to preliminary estimates based on bagging volume survey data by Mysteel, the national apple production in the new season is expected to be 3736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons or 2.35% compared with the 2024 - 2025 production season [2] Viewpoint Summary - As of July 16, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory in the main production areas was 80.60 million tons, a decrease of 10.89 million tons compared with the previous week, and the sales speed improved slightly compared with the previous week, showing little difference compared with the same period last year. The Shandong production area's storage capacity ratio was 12.15%, a decrease of 1.06% compared with the previous week, and the inventory reduction speed improved slightly. The Shaanxi production area's storage capacity ratio was 4.63%, a decrease of 1.09% compared with the previous week, and the sales were slightly faster than the previous week. Overall, the current inventory is at a low level in the same period of the past five years, and the purchase price of early - maturing varieties has increased slightly year - on - year, supporting the price to fluctuate strongly. However, the large - scale listing of summer fruits has impacted the apple demand, and the potential increase in the new - season apple production may restrain the price trend [2] Suggested Attention - There is no news today, and it is recommended to continue to pay attention to the apple production situation [2]
苹果市场周报:低库存支撑明显,价格稳中趋强-20250718
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 10:26
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of Apple Futures 2510 rose by 0.97% on a weekly basis. New - season apple production is expected to be 3736.64 million tons, a 2.35% increase from the 2024 - 2025 production season. As of July 16, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 80.60 million tons, with a slightly improved shipping speed. Current inventory is at a five - year low, and the purchase price of early - maturing varieties has increased year - on - year, strongly supporting prices. However, the large - scale listing of summer fruits has impacted apple demand, resulting in insufficient price momentum. In the short term, the price is expected to show a slightly stronger oscillatory trend. [5] - It is recommended to go long on the Apple 2510 contract on dips. Future trading should focus on inventory clearance rate, consumption, and new - crop production. [6][7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - Apple Futures 2510 price rose 0.97% this week. New - season apple production is estimated to increase by 2.35%. As of July 16, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory decreased by 10.89 million tons week - on - week. Shandong's warehouse capacity ratio decreased by 1.06%, and Shaanxi's decreased by 1.09%. Inventory is at a five - year low, and early - maturing variety prices are up year - on - year, but summer fruits impact demand. The short - term price trend is slightly stronger with oscillations. [5] - It is recommended to go long on the Apple 2510 contract on dips. Future trading should focus on inventory clearance rate, consumption, and new - crop production. [6][7] 3.2 Futures Market - This week, the price of Apple Futures 2510 rose by 0.88%. As of this week, the net long position of the top 20 in apple futures was 6850 lots, and the number of apple futures warehouse receipts was 0. [10][16] 3.3 Spot Market - As of July 18, 2025, the mainstream price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit farmer's goods of bagged Red Fuji in Qixia, Shandong was 4 yuan per jin; the price of bagged Fuji apples of 75 and above in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.4 yuan per jin. [19] 3.4 Industry Chain Supply - side - As of July 16, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 80.60 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.89 million tons. Shandong's warehouse capacity ratio was 12.15%, a 1.06% decrease from last week; Shaanxi's was 4.63%, a 1.09% decrease from last week. [25] Demand - side - As of July 18, the average daily morning arrival of vehicles at major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong decreased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was 0.7 yuan per jin. [29] - As of July 11, 2025, the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.66 yuan per kilogram, a 1.26% week - on - week increase; the wholesale price of apples was 9.75 yuan per kilogram, a 0.10% week - on - week decrease. [33] - As of July 11, 2025, the weekly average wholesale price of 5 kinds of fruits (including Fuji apples, bananas, tangerines, pears, and watermelons) was 7.33 yuan per kilogram, a 0.27% week - on - week decrease. [37] - In May 2023, China's fresh apple exports were 3.94 million tons, a 26.36% month - on - month decline from April and a 9.22% year - on - year decline from May 2022. [41] 3.5 Option Market - Information on the implied volatility of at - the - money apple options this week is presented in a graph, but no specific data is given. [42] 3.6 Futures - Stock Correlation - Information on the price - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit is presented in a graph, but no specific data is given. [44]
农产品日报:苹果客商询价增多,红枣处坐果关键期-20250716
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-16 05:22
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the apple and red date industries is neutral [3][7] Core Views - For the apple industry, due to the low remaining inventory at the production areas and the expected new - season output being similar to last year, the apple fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, and the short - term price is expected to remain stable. Attention should be paid to the price trend of early - maturing varieties and weather conditions [3] - For the red date industry, as it is at the low point of annual consumption, with high inventory and weak spot trading, and the futures market being sensitive to new - season growth news, caution is needed when going long, and close attention should be paid to the growth of new - season red dates [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract on the previous day was 7,862 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton or 0.31% from the previous day. Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 3.95 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of AP10 + 38, down 24 from the previous day; the price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 and above semi - commercial late Fuji was 4.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of AP10 + 1738, down 24 from the previous day [1] - In the apple production areas, trading is mostly demand - based, and buyers are cautious. In some western cold storages, the area of water - rotten apples has expanded, and some holders are eager to sell. Early - maturing apples are mainly from Dali and Yuncheng, with limited supply and little impact on the market. In Shandong, the market is mainly for sales, and the sales volume is still slow after a slight price drop. In the sales areas, the sales volume is average, and there is an impact from summer - cooling fruits [1] Market Analysis - The apple futures price rose the previous day, and the inventory trading in production areas was relatively stable. In western production areas, the number of inquiries from buyers increased. The national main production areas' sales speed last week was similar to the previous week and slower than the same period last year, and the current inventory is at a near - five - year low [2] - In production areas, the late Fuji market was generally stable but weak last week, with light trading. Buyers were cautious, mainly using their own inventory, and the actual trading volume was limited. In Shandong, some holders and farmers were eager to sell, the price of good apples changed little, and the price of ordinary and lower - grade apples dropped slightly but with limited transactions. In Shaanxi, the trading was stable and light, with limited remaining inventory, mainly concentrated in northern Shaanxi. In Gansu, the sales speed slowed down. Shanxi, Henan, and Liaoning production areas were basically cleared of inventory [2] - In the sales areas, the number of trucks arriving at the Guangdong wholesale market last week decreased slightly compared to the previous week. There was an obvious impact from seasonal fruits. With the increase in temperature, the sales of summer - cooling fruits increased, and some spot traders switched to seasonal fruits, affecting the apple market [2] Strategy - The strategy for the apple industry is neutral. Given the low remaining inventory at production areas and the expected new - season output being similar to last year, the short - term price is expected to remain stable. Attention should be paid to the price trend of early - maturing varieties and weather conditions [3] Red Date Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract on the previous day was 10,280 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton or 1.06% from the previous day. Spot: The price of first - grade Hebei grey dates was 8.60 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CJ01 - 1680, up 110 from the previous day [5] - In the Xinjiang grey date main production areas, jujube farmers are actively managing the orchards, and the trees are in the physiological fruit - dropping stage. There has been no concentrated fruit - dropping, and the temperature is suitable for fruit setting. In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, 5 trucks of dates arrived, and in the Guangdong Ruyifang market, 2 trucks arrived, with buyers purchasing on demand [5] Market Analysis - The red date futures price fell the previous day, reaching a one - month low. The new - season red dates in production areas are at the critical fruit - setting stage. The new - season red dates in main production areas are in the flowering and fruit - setting stage, with different growth in different areas. Due to the large output in 2024, there are potential growth problems in the new season. Some orchards had average first - crop fruit setting, and the market is trading on the expectation of a new - season output reduction. Attention should be paid to the second - and third - crop fruit setting [6] - In the sales areas, the total inventory is at a multi - year high, and it is the traditional off - season. The supply of seasonal fruits is increasing, and the demand for tonics is weak. After the price increase, downstream buyers purchase on demand to replenish safety stocks. The inventory of 36 sample physical warehouses decreased slightly last week [6] Strategy - The strategy for the red date industry is neutral. Given the low consumption period, high inventory, and weak spot trading, and the high sensitivity of the futures market to new - season growth news, caution is needed when going long, and close attention should be paid to the growth of new - season red dates [7]
新季早熟类高开,盘面偏强运行
Guo Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-13 03:10
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The late - season old - crop apples' closing prices are basically stable, which may boost the purchase prices of new - crop apples. The high opening prices of early - season new - crop apples may support the market. Short - term trading is recommended to be based on a bullish - biased trading strategy [36] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - This week, the main contract of apple futures, AP2510, showed a strong performance [7] 2. Supply - Side Situation - As of July 10, 2025, the total remaining cold - storage apple volume in China was 824,400 tons, at the lowest level in the past five years. Shandong's cold - storage remaining volume was 503,400 tons, and Shaanxi's was 219,100 tons [13] 3. Demand - Side Situation - As of July 10, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 6.24%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.64 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.35 percentage points. The de - stocking rate was 90.19%. Apples were in the off - season, with slow shipment in the producing areas. Some storage merchants were eager to sell [18] - In May 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 45,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37.38% and a year - on - year decrease of 25.15%. The second - quarter export volume in 2025 was expected to decline [20] - As of July 11, the mainstream prices of apples in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong were stable. The number of purchasing merchants was still small, with sluggish transactions. In recent days, the sales enthusiasm of storage merchants has further increased [32]