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银河期货苹果日报-20251112
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-12 11:19
Group 1: Market Information - The Fuji apple price index was 106.38, up 0.02 from the previous trading day. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits was 7.02, down 0.01 [2] - Futures prices: AP01 closed at 9207, down 22; AP05 at 9241, down 48; AP10 at 8345, down 44 [2] - Basis: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples against AP01, AP05, and AP10 were not available [2] Group 2: Market News and Views Apple Market News - In September 2025, the import volume of fresh apples was 0.97 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.10%. The cumulative import volume from January to September 2025 was 10.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.49%. The export volume in September 2025 was about 7.08 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.50% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.32% [6] - The off - warehouse apple procurement in the producing areas is gradually ending. The remaining goods are mainly traded in the procurement market. The procurement enthusiasm from the cold storage in the northwest producing areas is relatively high. The market arrival is stable, and the sales are okay [6] - In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of Qixia 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was 0.4 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.1 yuan per catty from last week [7] - The mainstream transaction price of apples in Luochuan, Shaanxi is stable. In Qixia, Shandong, the price of high - quality apples is stable, and the remaining off - warehouse goods are few [8] Trading Logic - This year, the apple production has decreased, the high - quality fruit rate is poor, and the storage difficulty has increased. It is expected that the cold - storage inventory data will probably be lower than last year. As of November 6, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 51.68%, a year - on - year decrease of 10.62 percentage points; the inventory was 6.8274 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.04% [9][10][12] Group 3: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The apple fundamentals are strong, and the spot price has risen recently. Consider buying on dips [20] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [20] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [20]
苹果产业日报-20251112
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-12 09:00
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The current inventory of late Fuji apples is at a relatively low level in recent years. As the market gradually reflects this situation, price fluctuations are intensifying. In the short - term, it is recommended to buy long positions on dips and pay attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main apple futures contract is 9207 yuan/ton; the main contract position is 144,369 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 5092 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 9677 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 2284 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged above 75) is 5 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged above 75) is 2.3 yuan/jin; in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged above 70 semi - second - grade fruit farmer's goods) is 4.2 yuan/jin; in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged above 80 first - grade) is 3.5 yuan/jin, all with no week - on - week change [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple output is 5128.51 million tons per year; the weekly apple wholesale price is 9.49 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.03 yuan/kg; the average weekly wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.04 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 yuan/kg. The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 698.42 million tons per week. The capacity utilization ratio of Shandong apple cold - storage is 0.57, and that of Shaanxi is 0.41. The monthly apple export volume is 70,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import value of fresh, dried fruits and nuts is 1837980 million US dollars; the year - on - year monthly export value of apples is - 8.5%. The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly wholesale price of pears is 6.66 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of bananas is 5.39 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.09 yuan/kg; the weekly wholesale price of watermelons is 5.36 yuan/kg. The weekly average number of early - morning arriving trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 12.2, with a week - on - week decrease of 4; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 17; at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 24, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.6 [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 22.29%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.07%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 22.29%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.07% [2] Industry News - In the western production areas, there is not much remaining ground - traded inventory, and merchants mainly purchase for market transactions. Some cold - storage transactions have started, and the price of cold - storage apples is stable with a slight increase in some areas. In the Shandong production area, the supply volume is acceptable, but due to the decline in the quality of ground - sourced apples, the price has dropped, while the demand for small apples is strong and the price is firm. The ground trading of new - season late Fuji apples is gradually ending, mainly concentrated in Shandong and Shanxi. In terms of the cold - storage progress, Gansu's cold - storage is basically completed, Shaanxi's is nearing completion, and in Shandong's Qixia area, a large amount of fruit farmer's apples are still being stored [2]
银河期货农产品日报:苹果日报-20251106
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-11-06 09:21
Group 1: Market Information - The Fuji apple price index was 107.18, down 0.43 from the previous trading day; the average wholesale price of 6 fruits was 6.94, down 0.22 [2] - Futures prices: AP01 was 8919, down 21; AP05 was 9112, down 66; AP10 was 8256, down 28 [2] - Basis: No valid data for the basis of Qixia first and second - grade 80 apples against futures contracts was available [2] Group 2: Market News and Views Apple Market News - As of November 6, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 51.68%, and the inventory was 6.8274 million tons, 10.62 percentage points lower and 17.04% lower than the same period last year respectively [4] - As of November 5, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 6.9842 million tons, 1.1502 million tons lower (a 14.14% decline) than the same period last year [4] - In September 2025, the import volume of fresh apples was 0.97 million tons, a 17.85% month - on - month and 1.10% year - on - year decrease; the cumulative import volume from January to September was 10.81 million tons, a 19.49% year - on - year increase. The export volume in September was about 7.08 million tons, a 3.50% month - on - month increase and 6.32% year - on - year decrease [4] - The mainstream transaction price in the market was stable. The large - scale trading points in rural areas gradually withdrew, and the supply in the acquisition market decreased slightly. The price of high - quality goods changed little. In the northwest production area, the storage period was coming to an end, with only a small number of areas still having transactions. The market arrivals were stable, and the sales of high - quality goods were smooth with stable prices [4] - The mainstream transaction price of apples in Luochuan, Yan'an, Shaanxi was stable, with the 70 and above semi - commercial apples priced at 3.5 - 4.0 yuan per jin, high - end at 4.0 - 4.5 yuan per jin, and low - end at 3.0 - 3.5 yuan per jin. The price of juice apples was 0.2 yuan per jin [5] Trading Logic - This year, apple production decreased, the high - quality fruit rate was poor, and storage was more difficult. The cold - storage inventory data is likely to be lower than last year. Although there are still apples to be stored, the effective inventory is likely to be low. However, the current futures price is at a high level, with a significant increase in positions and greater market divergence, so short - term risks are relatively high [6] Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Although the apple fundamentals are strong, the price is at a high level, and there is a large divergence between bulls and bears. It is recommended to wait and see [7] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [7] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [7] Group 3: Related Attachments - The attachments include 10 charts, such as the price of Qixia first and second - grade paper - bag 80 apples, the price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bag 70 apples, the basis of AP contracts, and the price difference between different AP contracts, as well as data on apple arrivals and cold - storage inventory [10][12][18]
苹果市场周报-20251031
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 08:58
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the Apple Futures 2601 contract rose, with a weekly increase of 4.38%. The new - season late - maturing Fuji ground trading has shifted to the eastern production areas, and the warehousing work is in progress. In the Shandong production area, the apple harvest time varies, the number of merchants has increased, and high - quality goods are relatively difficult to purchase. The trading of late - maturing Fuji in the western region is gradually entering the later stage. In the sales area, the trading atmosphere in the wholesale market is still dull, and the demand side continues to be under pressure. Considering the high risk of new fruit warehousing this year and the obvious price difference for high - quality fruits, it is expected that the short - term apple futures price will remain high. Attention should be paid to the cold - storage warehousing situation [4]. - The recommended trading strategy is to mainly buy long positions on dips for the Apple 2601 contract in the short term [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - **Market Review**: The price of the Apple Futures 2601 contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of 4.38% [4][8]. - **Market Outlook**: New - season late - maturing Fuji ground trading has shifted to the eastern production areas, and warehousing work is in progress. In Shandong, apple harvest times vary, and high - quality goods are hard to buy. Western trading is in the later stage, with slow warehousing in Shaanxi and almost finished in Gansu. The wholesale market in the sales area is dull, and demand is under pressure. Short - term futures prices are expected to stay high due to high warehousing risks and price differences for high - quality fruits. Monitor cold - storage warehousing [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy long positions on dips for the Apple 2601 contract in the short term [4]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Monitor late - maturing Fuji prices and consumption [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: The price of the Apple Futures 2601 contract rose 4.38% this week. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in apple futures was 8,391 lots, and the number of apple futures warehouse receipts was 0 [8][14]. - **Spot Market**: As of October 31, 2025, the mainstream price of 80 first - and second - grade apple farmer - sourced goods in Qixia, Shandong was 3.7 yuan per catty; the price of 75 and above Fuji apples in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.35 yuan per catty [17]. 3.3 Industry Situation and Options - **Supply Side**: For the 2025/26 production season, new fruits have not been warehoused, and relevant data release is suspended [24]. - **Demand Side**: - As of October 30, the average daily early - morning arrival of trucks in major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong increased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was suspended (replaced by 0) pending the new fruit harvest [28]. - As of October 24, 2025, the average wholesale price of all apple varieties was 9.53 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 yuan per kilogram; the wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.26 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week decrease of 0.12 yuan per kilogram [33]. - As of October 24, 2025, the weekly average wholesale price of 5 fruits (Fuji, banana, grape, pear, and watermelon) was 7.04 yuan per kilogram, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 yuan per kilogram [37]. - In September 2025, China's fresh apple exports were about 70,800 tons, with an export value of 69,178,601 US dollars and an average export price of 977.40 US dollars per ton. The export volume increased by 3.51% month - on - month compared with August and decreased by 6.36% year - on - year compared with September 2024. From January to September 2025, China's total fresh apple exports were 600,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7.50% [41]. - **Options Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money apple options this week is presented in a chart, but specific data is not given [42]. 3.4 Futures - Stock Correlation - A chart shows the price - to - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit & Vegetable Co., Ltd., but specific data is not provided [44].
苹果减产300万吨 价格普遍每斤要上涨10%左右
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-24 13:56
Core Viewpoint - Apple futures contracts have seen a significant upward trend this year, with a cumulative increase of over 20% due to reduced production and rising market prices [1] Production and Market Conditions - The apple production this year is approximately 34.23 million tons, representing a decrease of around 3 million tons or 8% compared to last year [1] - Adverse weather conditions, including cold waves and strong winds during the flowering period, have negatively impacted both yield and quality [1] - The market purchase price for apples has increased by about 10% per pound, driven by reduced supply and higher demand for quality products [1] Pricing Trends - In major apple-producing regions such as Shandong, the mainstream purchase price for grade one and two apples (80mm and above) is around 3.5 to 4 yuan per pound [1] - The enthusiasm of buyers for high-quality apples is reportedly higher than in previous years, indicating a strong market interest [1]
银河期货苹果日报-20251022
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-10-22 09:50
Group 1: Report Information - The report is an agricultural product daily report on apples, dated October 22, 2024, prepared by researcher Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information - The Fuji apple price index was 107.18, down 0.43 from the previous trading day; the 6 - fruit average wholesale price was 6.99, down 0.09 [3] - Among spot prices, the price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70 remained stable at 3.85, and the price of Yiyuan paper - bagged 70 was 2.30, unchanged [3] - For futures prices, AP01 was 8794, down 26 from the previous close; AP05 was 9307, down 2; AP10 was 9499, up 122 [3] Group 3: Market News - As of September 25, 2025, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 14.79 tons, a decrease of 6.02 tons from the previous week [6] - In August 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 6.84 tons, a 27.6% increase from the previous month and a 17.6% decrease year - on - year. The cumulative export volume from January to August 2025 was about 53.27 tons, a 7.7% decrease year - on - year [6] - In August 2025, the import volume of fresh apples was 1.18 tons, a 33.3% decrease from the previous month and a 15.3% decrease year - on - year. The cumulative import volume from January to August 2025 was 9.84 tons, a 22% increase year - on - year [6] - The transaction price of apples in the origin was stable. In Shandong, most were traded as general goods, with high - quality goods having high prices and less transactions. In the northwest, it was in the ordering, harvesting, and loading stage, with most high - quality goods already ordered [7] - The profit of storage merchants for Qixia 80 first - and second - grade apples in the 2024 - 2025 production season was 0.4 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.1 yuan per catty from the previous week [8] - In Shandong Yantai Qixia, the price of new - season paper - bagged Fuji 80 and above first - and second - grade apples was 3.5 - 4.0 yuan per catty, with individual cold - storage high - price acquisitions at 4.2 yuan per catty. In Shaanxi Yan'an Luochuan, the ordering price of 70 and above semi - commercial apples was stable, with a mainstream transaction price of 3.5 - 4.0 yuan per catty [8] Group 4: Trading Logic - In some areas of Shaanxi this year, the fruit diameter was small, and there were water - crack problems due to continuous rainfall. The high - quality fruit rate of late - maturing Fuji was expected to be low, and the opening price was high, so the futures price was expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [9] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The apple market is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term due to the expected low high - quality fruit rate [10] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [10] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [10] Group 6: Related Attachments - The report includes 10 related figures, such as the price of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples, the price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70 apples, and the national cold - storage apple inventory [14][20][30]
银河期货苹果日报-20251021
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-10-21 09:18
Report Overview - Report Type: Agricultural Product Daily Report - Research Date: October 21, 2024 - Researcher: Liu Qiannan 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The late - maturing Fuji apple is expected to have a low premium fruit rate due to small fruit diameters in some areas of Shaanxi and water - crack problems caused by continuous rainfall. The opening price of late - maturing Fuji is high, and the cost of making futures warehouse receipts is also high. Therefore, the futures price is expected to remain in a slightly bullish and volatile trend in the short term [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - **Spot Prices**: The Fuji apple price index was 107.18, down 0.43 from the next - working - day price. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits was 7.08, up 0.08. Prices of some apple varieties like Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bag 70, Penglai first - and second - grade paper - bag 80, and Yiyuan paper - bag 70 remained unchanged [3]. - **Futures Prices**: AP01 was 8850, down 15 from yesterday's close; AP05 was 9309, down 15; AP10 was 9377, up 23. The spreads AP01 - AP05 remained unchanged at - 459, AP05 - AP10 increased by 8 to - 75, and AP10 - AP01 decreased by 8 [3]. - **Basis**: Data for the basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples against different futures contracts were not available [3]. 3.2 Market News and Views - **Market News** - As of September 25, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 14.79 tons, a decrease of 6.02 tons from the previous week [6]. - In August 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 6.84 tons, a 27.6% increase from the previous month but a 17.6% decrease year - on - year. The cumulative export volume from January to August 2025 was about 53.27 tons, a 7.7% decrease year - on - year. The import volume in August 2025 was 1.18 tons, a 33.3% decrease from the previous month and a 15.3% decrease year - on - year. The cumulative import volume from January to August 2025 was 9.84 tons, a 22% increase year - on - year [6]. - The trading price of apples in the origin was stable. In Shandong, there was a small amount of high - quality apple procurement, and the supply and tradable volume were average. In the northwest, the enthusiasm for ordering high - quality apples was high, but the procurement of average - quality apples was cautious. The market arrival volume was small, and the sales speed and price were stable [7]. - The profit of Qixia 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants in the 2024 - 2025 production season was 0.4 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.1 yuan per catty from the previous week [8]. - The ordering price of apples in Luochuan, Shaanxi was stable, with the mainstream transaction price of semi - commodity apples above 70 being 3.5 - 4.0 yuan per catty. In Qixia, Shandong, the acquisition of new - season apples had just started with a small volume, and the prices varied greatly according to quality [8]. - **Trading Logic**: Due to small fruit diameters in some areas of Shaanxi and water - crack problems caused by continuous rainfall, the premium fruit rate of late - maturing Fuji is expected to be low. The opening price and the cost of making futures warehouse receipts are high, so the futures price is expected to be slightly bullish and volatile in the short term [9]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Single - side**: The apple futures price is expected to be bullish and volatile in the short term due to the expected low premium fruit rate [10]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report includes 10 related charts, such as the price chart of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bag 80 apples, the price chart of Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bag 70 apples, and the chart of the total apple arrival volume in Chalong, Jiangmen, and Xiaqiao [14][24][30].
苹果周报:优果率较为一般,果价稳中有涨-20251017
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-10-17 11:35
Report Title - Apple Weekly Report: The Rate of High - Quality Apples is Average, and Apple Prices are Rising Steadily [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Due to factors such as the uneven quality of new - season apples and the impact of weather on production areas, the price of high - quality apples is expected to be strong, and the price gap between high - quality and general - quality apples will widen. The futures price is expected to show a short - term shock - strengthening trend [7][16] Summary by Directory Logic Analysis and Trading Strategies Spot Analysis - In the western region, the supply of new - season late Fuji apples increased this week, with obvious price polarization. High - quality apples had strong prices, while the prices of general - quality apples were chaotic. In the Shandong region, affected by the weather, apples were waiting to color, with limited red apple supply. In the sales area, the trading atmosphere was average, and the restocking of second - and third - level wholesalers was weak [7] - In Shandong, the late Fuji apples were in the coloring stage, with limited red apple supply. The current transaction prices were 2 - 3 yuan per catty for general goods and 3.0 - 3.8 yuan per catty for better - quality general goods. In Shaanxi, the orders for late Fuji apples increased, with high - quality apples having stable and strong prices. The price of 70 and above semi - commercial apples in Luochuan was around 3.7 - 4.2 yuan per catty, and the ordering price was 3.5 - 4.3 yuan per catty [7] Supply Analysis - Cold - storage inventory statistics were suspended. As of October 9, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 6.79 tons. The 2024 - 2025 production season inventory ended, and the 2025 - 2026 production season was in the acquisition stage. It is expected that the national inventory statistics for 2025 will start from late October to early November [12] Demand Analysis - In the Guangdong Chalong market, the number of early - morning arrivals decreased compared with last week. The sales of high - quality new - season late Fuji apples were okay, while the sales of general - quality apples were slow. The average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits on October 16 was 7.01 yuan per kilogram, slightly lower than last Friday, and in the middle of the same period in recent years [15] - The market arrival volume this week was lower than the same period in previous years. The market was mainly supplied by Shaanxi, with tight overall supply. The overall sales situation was good, and the mainstream transaction price remained stable. Traders reported a large profit margin for the new - season apples [15] Trading Strategy - Trading logic: The late - maturing Fuji apples are expected to have a low rate of high - quality fruits, and the opening price is high. The cost of making futures warehouse receipts is high, so the futures price is expected to show a short - term shock - strengthening trend [16] - Unilateral: It is expected that apples will show a shock - strengthening trend in the short term due to the expected low rate of high - quality fruits [16] - Arbitrage: Buy in November and sell in January [16] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [16] Weekly Data Tracking Apple Supply and Demand - The document provides data on apple export volume, planting area, consumption, and production from 2018 - 2023, but no specific analysis content is given [20] Inventory and Shipment - It shows the trends of national cold - storage apple inventory, Shandong cold - storage inventory, Shaanxi cold - storage inventory, and national cold - storage apple shipment from 2016/17 - 2024/25, but no specific analysis content is given [23][24] Spread and Basis - It provides information on the current prices, previous - day prices, and price changes of futures contracts such as AP01, AP05, and AP10, as well as the basis and spread information between different contracts and spot prices [26] Spot Price - It provides the current prices, previous - day prices, and price changes of the Fuji apple price index, as well as the prices of apples in different producing areas such as Qixia and Penglai [27]
苹果产业日报-20251013
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-10-13 09:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests taking a short - term bullish approach to the Apple 2601 contract [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the rainy weather, the coloring of late - season Fuji apples in the production areas is slow, the quality is poor, and the market supply is limited. After the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival, buyers are hesitant and the market is sluggish. However, the opening price of new - season late - season Fuji apples in the western production areas is generally 0.3 - 1 yuan per jin higher than last year, and the concentration of the harvest is postponed to around mid - October. The trading in the sales areas is average, and the post - holiday sales are not improving. The postponed harvest may lead to a concentrated supply from different production areas, and attention should be paid to the quality of late - season Fuji apples after harvest [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main apple futures contract is 8638 yuan/ton, and the main contract position is 122,813 lots, a decrease of 2,712 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 4,222 lots, a decrease of 6,679 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, Shaanxi Luochuan, and Shandong Yantai Qixia are 4 yuan/jin, 2.3 yuan/jin, 4.2 yuan/jin, and 3.7 yuan/jin respectively, with no change [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national apple production is 5,128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly wholesale price of apples is 9.69 yuan/kg, the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.34 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan/kg. The storage capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples is 0.01, and that of Shandong apples is - 0.01. The national total cold - storage inventory of apples is 6.79 million tons, a decrease of 5.39 million tons. The monthly export volume of apples is 70,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons. The monthly export value of apples is 69.739 million US dollars, and the monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 15.892955 billion US dollars, a decrease of 1.533065 billion US dollars. The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.3 yuan/jin [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 8.09 yuan/kg, that of bananas is 5.59 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg, and that of watermelons is 4.17 yuan/kg. The average daily number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Guangdong Jiangmen, Guangdong Xiaqiao, and Guangdong Chalong wholesale markets is 25.67, 32, and 45.33 respectively, with an increase of 10.67 and 14.33 [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 23.45%, a decrease of 2.1%, and that of at - the - money put options is 23.48%, a decrease of 2.06% [2] 3.7 Industry News - Affected by the rainy weather, the coloring of late - season Fuji apples in the production areas is slow, the quality is poor, and the market supply is limited. After the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival, due to poor sales, buyers are hesitant and the local prices are stable or weak. The opening price of new - season late - season Fuji apples in the western production areas is generally 0.3 - 1 yuan per jin higher than last year, and the concentrated harvest is postponed to around mid - October [2]
苹果产业日报-20250929
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 09:52
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - As of September 24, 2025, the apple cold storage inventory in the main producing areas of China was 121,800 tons, a decrease of 41,400 tons from the previous week. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 2.62%, a decrease of 0.89% from the previous week. The inventory removal speed in Shandong was slightly faster, and the remaining inventory was mostly concentrated in towns such as Qixia. The overall sales volume during the week was average. The trading of medium - ripe apples such as Anglin and Yanfu was active, while the sales of inventory apples were still average. As Hongjiangjun entered the later stage, the number of customers inspecting inventory goods increased slightly. The price of high - quality goods was relatively stable, while the price of farmers' general goods was weak. The driving effect of the Double Festival was average. It is recommended to pay attention to the bag - removing progress of late - Fuji apples. In terms of operation, it is recommended to maintain long positions in the short term [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract was 8,486 yuan/ton, and the position of the main contract was 107,796 lots, a decrease of 5,021 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was 4,442 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged above 75) was 4 yuan/jin, and that in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged above 75) was 2.3 yuan/jin, with no change. The spot price of apples in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged above 70 semi - commercial) was 4.35 yuan/jin, and that in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged above 80 first - grade) was 3.7 yuan/jin, with no change [2] Upstream Situation - The annual apple output in China was 51.2851 million tons, and the weekly average wholesale price of apples was 9.78 yuan/kg, an increase of 168.34 yuan/kg. The average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.28 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/kg. The storage capacity ratio of Shaanxi apples was 0, and the monthly export volume of apples was 70,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons. The total inventory of national apple cold storage was 121,800 tons, a decrease of 41,400 tons. The storage capacity ratio of Shandong apples was 2.62%, a decrease of 0.89% [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import value of fresh, dried fruits and nuts was 645.5 million US dollars, and the monthly export value of apples was 69.739 million US dollars, a decrease of 153.3065 million US dollars. The weekly profit of storage merchants for first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples was 0.3 yuan/jin. The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines was 8.33 yuan/kg, the weekly wholesale price of bananas was 3.83 yuan/kg, the weekly wholesale price of watermelons was 5.52 yuan/kg, the weekly average daily arrival volume of early - morning trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market was 16.2 vehicles, an increase of 4.2 vehicles [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average daily arrival volume of early - morning trucks at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market was 20.2 vehicles, an increase of 6.24 vehicles, and that at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market was 31.8 vehicles [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples was 24.72%, and that of at - the - money put options was 24.72%, an increase of 0.74% [2] Industry News - In the western producing areas, large - scale bag - removing is in progress, and the trading price of sporadic red apples is stable. However, there will be continuous rainfall for more than ten days, which may have an adverse impact on the quality of late - Fuji apples, and the proportion of high - quality fruits may decline. In the Shandong producing area, it is currently in the trading gap period, and the bag - removing work of late - Fuji apples has also started one after another. The inventory of farmers' Fuji apples continues to be digested, and transactions are mainly based on bargaining [2]