编者按：瑞银近期发布中国汽车行业研究报告，认为认为反内卷对行业利润率前景和股票市场情绪都是积极的，对宁德时代（300750）、比亚迪 （002594）、理想汽车、长城汽车（601633）和赛力斯（601127）给予买入评级。 价格战会停火吗？ 尽管可能只是暂时的，但我们最近已经看到了一些价格竞争有所缓和的迹象。例如：1）理想汽车在接近季度末时将其第二季度的业绩指引下调了约 12%，而小鹏汽车和蔚来汽车仅达到了销量指引的下限；2）比亚迪在 5 月 23 日宣布的限时激励政策于 6 月 30 日结束，随后激励力度有所适度缩减；3） 比亚迪 6 月的产量比其批发量低约 10%，比其零售量低约 20%，这显示出其克制生产的姿态；4）瑞银汽车团队走访了上海的一些经销商门店，发现在高 额保险佣金回扣被禁止后，部分激励措施也有所削减。 我们看到中央政府发出了一些呼吁，要求避免陷入低价竞争的恶性循环。《人民日报》在 6 月 29 日发表社论，呼吁行业摆脱 "内卷" 式竞争，遵循合理的 经济规律。新华社也在 7 月 1 日报道，呼吁改变低价无序竞争的做法。这一呼吁涵盖了多个行业，包括电动汽车、太阳能电池板、风电、电池等。 对行 ...

晨报 成材 成材：需求拖累价格 钢材震荡整理 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 逻辑：从国务院国资委获悉，33 家建筑类企业联合发出建筑行业"反 内卷"倡议书，共同推动行业转型，摒弃"内卷式"竞争。住建部：今年 以来，各地不断加快城镇老旧小区改造步伐，目前已有河北、重庆、辽宁、 上海、浙江、湖北等多个省份的城镇老旧小区开工率超过 50%。 6 月 30 日-7 月 6 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成交面积总计 197.23 万平方米， 环比下降 36.6%，同比下降 8.2%；二手房成交面积总计 196.85 万平方米， 环比下降 14.8%，同比下降 4.4%。中国工程机械工业协会：6 月销售各类 挖掘机 18804 台，同比增长 13.3%。其中国内销量 8136 台，同比增长 6.2%； 出口量 10668 台，同比增长 19.3%。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 原材料：程 鹏 成材昨日震荡整理，在上周钢价拉涨后，本周前两个交易日钢材盘整 运行。尽管有"反内卷"和唐山限产的信息推升价格，但目前日均 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨建筑与工程 [Table_Title] 建筑企业集体倡议反内卷，关注行业生态改善与 估值修复 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 7 月 7 日，国务院国资委党委和全国工商联党组共同在京举办高质量党建引领建筑行业高质量 发展主题活动暨行业倡议发布会。33 家建筑类中央企业、地方国企、民营企业基层党组织联合 发出《关于号召建筑行业党组织和广大党员在营造风清气正行业环境中走在前作表率的倡议 书》。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520080022 SAC：S0490522060005 SFC：BUT917 张弛 张智杰 袁志芃 龚子逸 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 建筑与工程 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 建筑企业集体倡议反内卷，关注行业生态改善 2] 与估值修复 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 7 月 7 日，国资委党委和全国工商联党组共同在京举办高质量党建引领建筑行业高质量发展主 题活动暨行业倡议发布会。33 家建筑类中央企业、地方国企 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 8th, polysilicon hit the daily limit again due to multiple news. The main contract 2508 closed at 38,385 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 7%. The SMM N-type polysilicon price rose to 39,000 yuan/ton. The spot price shifted from a discount to a premium of 615 yuan/ton compared to the main contract. Industrial silicon showed a slightly stronger trend, with the main contract 2509 closing at 8,215 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 2.8%. The spot premium narrowed to 215 yuan/ton. There are expectations of anti-involution production cuts in the polysilicon industry, and the trading logic is in a period of policy regulation and news fermentation. The market has strong support, and short-selling is not advisable. One can choose to wait and see or take a small long position. Industrial silicon follows the rise of polysilicon in the short term, but the decline in warehouse receipts and the accumulation of social inventory limit the upside. A high-selling strategy is recommended. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts for both types of silicon and the opportunity to go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon after the PS/SI price ratio rebounds [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Viewpoints - Polysilicon is affected by multiple news, hitting the daily limit again. Industrial silicon shows a slightly stronger trend. There are expectations of anti-involution production cuts in the polysilicon industry, and the trading logic is in a period of policy regulation and news fermentation. Industrial silicon follows the rise of polysilicon in the short term, but the decline in warehouse receipts and the accumulation of social inventory limit the upside [2] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 7,990 yuan/ton on July 7th to 8,195 yuan/ton on July 8th. The spot price of most grades remained stable, and the spot premium decreased from 240 yuan/ton to 215 yuan/ton [4] - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 36,515 yuan/ton on July 7th to 38,385 yuan/ton on July 8th. The N-type polysilicon price rose from 36,000 yuan/ton to 39,000 yuan/ton, and the spot price shifted from a discount to a premium of 615 yuan/ton [4] - **Organic Silicon**: The DMC price in the East China market remained stable at 10,800 yuan/ton. Data for other products were incomplete [4] - **Downstream Products**: The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained unchanged [4] 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost-side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10] 3.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][16][18] 3.3 Inventory - Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, and changes in weekly inventory, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC and polysilicon [21][22][24] 3.4 Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, the weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, the profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, and the cost and profit of DMC and polysilicon [27][29][32] Group 4: Team Introduction - The non-ferrous metals team at Everbright Futures Research Institute includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng has over a decade of commodity research experience and has won multiple industry awards. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum and silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium and nickel research [35][36]

从前几年的"卷产能"到如今的"卷价格"，锂电行业正在经历大肆扩张后的阵痛期。当产能闲置、价格不 振、利润下行等副作用扑面而来时，"反内卷"已成为行业共识。 多数受访人士认为，锂电行业破局需内外共同发力。从短期来看，依靠市场调节、政府引导加速落后产 能出清是当务之急；放长远看，通过技术创新升格竞争维度，以硬实力破局才是王道。 行业陷"内卷"困局 "内卷"背景下，锂电行业利润大幅缩减。Wind数据显示，锂电池产业板块104家上市公司中，去年有65 家企业净利润出现下滑，超60家企业毛利率同比下降。 证券时报记者了解到，目前锂电行业的"内卷"主要体现在低价竞争，而价格"内卷"的背后是前几年行业 产能激进扩张留下的后遗症。 "开工日子不好过，不开工日子更难过。"华中地区一位锂电材料厂相关负责人告诉证券时报记者，目前 行业多数企业被低价竞争裹挟着前进，熬着、不折腾可能是最好的选择。 锂电产业链价格持续磨底，直逼成本线，业内企业普遍遭遇生存困境。 "价格太低了，接单越多可能意味着亏得越多；但若为了维持利润率不接单，又将面临'无米下锅'的窘 境，现金流吃紧。"前述锂电材料厂人士告诉证券时报记者，目前公司开工率不足30%，只 ...

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is facing severe price competition, leading to significant losses for companies, prompting a call for "anti-involution" measures to ensure sustainable development and product quality improvement [1][3][10]. Industry Overview - The Central Economic Committee has mandated the regulation of low-price competition in the photovoltaic sector, aiming to enhance product quality and facilitate the exit of outdated production capacity [1][10]. - The photovoltaic sector has seen a strong rebound in stock prices since early July, with companies like Tongwei Co., Ltd. and Longi Green Energy experiencing significant gains [1]. Financial Performance - Longi Green Energy reported a revenue of 82.58 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 36.23%, with losses exceeding 8.6 billion yuan, marking a staggering drop of 180.15% [3][6]. - The gross margin for Longi's silicon wafer and rod segments was reported at -14.31%, a decline of 30.19%, while the module and battery segments had a gross margin of only 6.27%, down 12.11% [5][6]. Market Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, leading to excessive competition and price drops that have resulted in many companies operating at a loss [3][7]. - The price of photovoltaic glass has significantly decreased, with a 24% drop for 2.0mm glass and an 18% drop for 3.2mm glass expected in the first half of 2025 [7][10]. Production Adjustments - In response to the ongoing price competition, major photovoltaic glass manufacturers have agreed to collectively reduce production by 30% starting in July [8][10]. - Many silicon wafer manufacturers are also planning to cut their operating rates by approximately 40% to mitigate losses and stabilize prices [10]. Regulatory Response - The manufacturing sector's recent meetings have emphasized the need for comprehensive governance of low-price competition and the promotion of product quality to achieve healthy and sustainable industry growth [1][10].

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光大期货分析指出，继光伏行业座谈会上明确提出"治理行业低价无序竞争，推动落后产能有序退出， 加快推动产业高质量发展"之后，近期市场消息端传言较多， 一是多晶硅将进行成本摸排定价，低于最低成本价或面临处罚；二是7月多晶硅原定复产取消，行业或 通过收储、协会制定标杆成本价以及将光伏从制造品作为能源品定位等多方面路径实现产能逐步出清， 消息端不确定性较大，后期关注具体的落地情况。 除此之外，昨日多部门印发《关于促进大功率充电设施科学规划建设的通知》，鼓励打造智能有序大功 率充电场站，建立大功率充电场站与配电网高效互动机制，因地制宜配建光伏发电和储能设施。多重举 措使得多晶硅基本面存明显改善预期，市场资金主动流入推涨期货盘面。 此外，据券商中国报道，从昨晚开始，市场即流传一则"小作文"，其主要内容涉及"硅料收储可能会于 近期落地"。事实上，该传闻已经在5月份发酵过一次。彼时有消息指出，六大头部硅料厂商正在探讨并 购相关产能，通过雪藏尾部产能实施更大力度的控产，将用近3个月过渡期形成方案；同时六大龙头已 进一步达成减产挺价共识，并设置了每吨4.5万—5万元的挺价区间。当时，智通财经还证实了硅料大厂 集体协商整合行业的计 ...

2、钧达股份：公司研发中心已建立基于N型技术的BC产品实验线，下步将进入中试阶段，实现N型BC 产品线量产，推动N型产品升级。 3、通威股份：目前公司已实现TOPcon、HJT、背接触(BC)电池、钙钛矿/硅叠层电池等技术路线研发的 全面布局，并在N型电池方面持续突破。 4、东材科技（601208）：公司一直坚持技术创新，探索差异化光伏产品的发展战略。目前，公司已有 相应的产品应用到BC电池。 7月8日，BC电池概念股集体大涨，截至收盘，板块涨幅超过4%。个股方面，通威股份（600438）、钧 达股份（002865）等多股收于涨停。 BC电池，又称背接触电池，是一种将正负极金属接触全部集成在背面的太阳能电池技术，其正面无栅 线设计可吸收更多太阳光。该技术兼具美观性与高发电效率，尤其适用于分布式光伏及工商业屋顶场 景。截至2025年4月，其量产效率已突破27%，理论效率极限达29.1%。 消息面上，近期光伏行业"反内卷"成为市场热议的焦点。工信部召开第十五次制造业企业座谈会，强调 依法依规、综合治理光伏行业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出。这一政 策信号不仅提振了市场对光伏行业良性发展的 ...

2、香港证监会行政总裁梁凤仪表示，中国人民银行和香港金管局宣布了数项债券通优化扩容的措施， 包括扩大南向通参与机构范围；优化离岸人民币债券回购业务，允许回购期间债券再质押使用等。 智通财经7月8日午间新闻精选 1、据网络平台数据，截至7月8日11时38分，历时189天，2025年电影大盘票房（含预售）突破300亿 元，相较去年提前28天。 3、33家建筑类企业联合发出建筑行业"反内卷"倡议书，共同推动行业转型，摒弃"内卷式"竞争。 4、当地时间7月7日，特朗普在白宫晚宴上针对关税问题表示，8月1日截止日期已确定，但不是百分百 确定，如果有国家提出了不同的方案，他会对其他想法持开放态度。 5、截至午间收盘，上证指数涨0.58%，深证成指涨1.27%，创业板指涨2.25%。恒生指数涨0.78%，恒生 科技指数涨1.29%。 ...