【导读】富临精工与宁德时代拟对江西升华增资扩股，预计构成重大资产重组 中国基金报记者 邱德坤 布局上游材料产业，宁德时代再次发出重要信号。 9月29日晚间，富临精工公告称，公司与宁德时代拟共同对子公司江西升华新材料有限公司（以下简称 江西升华）增资扩股，预计构成重大资产重组。 富临精工与宁德时代通过此次增资扩股，有望进一步提升战略合作关系，并且加快推进江西升华在优质 磷酸铁锂产品研发与生产、国际化拓展、供应链升级及储能市场发展等方面的进程。 截至9月29日收盘，富临精工股价报18.52元/股，涨幅达6.68%，总市值为316.6亿元。 富临精工 ㊣ = 8 7 kb 300432 融 深股通 L1 ▼ 1 8,5 2 今开 17.60 最高 18.86 最低 17.43 6.68% 1.16 换手⊙ 10.57% 总手 178.7万 金额 32.53亿 总值☺316.6亿 流值 313.1亿 市盈 ⊙ 90.75 重多 盘后固定价格: 18.52 | 量: 36 | 额: 66672 | 盘后分时 | 分时 五日 日K 周K 均线▼ MA5:17.04↑10:16.65↑20:15.84↑ 20:15.84↑ ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights ongoing challenges in the lithium iron phosphate (LFP) industry, including persistent losses among companies, volatile lithium resource prices, low overall capacity utilization, and frequent low-level redundant construction, which threaten both the sustainability of the industry and its international competitiveness [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - Many companies in the LFP sector are experiencing continuous losses, exacerbated by significant fluctuations in lithium resource prices [2][3]. - The overall capacity utilization rate in the industry remains low, with a concerning trend of repeated low-level construction [1][2]. - These issues not only harm individual companies but also pose serious challenges to the sustainable development of the entire supply chain [1][2]. Group 2: Self-Regulation Initiative - The China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association has released a draft proposal aimed at maintaining a healthy and orderly development of the LFP materials industry [2]. - The initiative calls for strict adherence to national laws and regulations to combat unfair competition, including the prohibition of selling below cost and the abuse of market dominance [2][3]. - A proposal to establish a "cost price index for LFP products" is included, which would be compiled by a qualified third-party organization to provide objective pricing references for companies [2][3]. Group 3: Supply Chain Collaboration - The initiative encourages upstream and downstream companies to strengthen strategic cooperation by signing long-term agreements and referencing futures market prices to build a resilient supply chain ecosystem [3]. Group 4: Capacity Management and Industry Standards - Companies are advised to implement dynamic management of capacity utilization, with a recommendation to pause new capacity plans if utilization falls below 70% [5]. - The industry is urged to collectively halt new expansions if overall capacity utilization drops below 60%, focusing instead on technological upgrades and management optimization [5]. - The establishment of high industry entry standards is proposed, based on existing regulations, to ensure that LFP material companies meet specific technical, energy consumption, and environmental protection criteria [5]. Group 5: Innovation and Quality Focus - The initiative signals a shift from extensive scale expansion to a focus on quality, efficiency, and innovation within the LFP industry [6]. - If effectively implemented, the initiative could stabilize market order and alleviate pressure on companies in the short term, while promoting industry consolidation and upgrading in the long term [6]. Group 6: Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on companies within the LFP supply chain that possess technological leadership and strong cost advantages, such as Hunan Youneng and Defang Nano [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The fundamentals have weak support for the futures price, and it is expected to be mainly volatile and weak [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compound Prices - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 81,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 79,300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [1] Lithium Futures Contracts - Lithium carbonate 2509 closed at 79,040 yuan/ton, down 0.05%; lithium carbonate 2510 closed at 79,100 yuan/ton, down 0.13%; lithium carbonate 2511 closed at 78,860 yuan/ton, down 0.23%; lithium carbonate 2512 closed at 78,460 yuan/ton, down 0.36%; lithium carbonate 2601 closed at 78,320 yuan/ton, down 0.25% [1] Lithium Ore Prices - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 920 yuan/ton, unchanged; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1,245 yuan/ton; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1,970 yuan/ton; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 6,710 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 7,775 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [1][2] Cathode Material Prices - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 35,590 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 145,900 yuan/ton; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 119,400 yuan/ton; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 123,975 yuan/ton [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,300 yuan/ton; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 2,740 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 60 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 180 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 141,543 tons, down 713 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 46,846 tons, down 2,847 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 51,507 tons, up 3,224 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 43,190 tons, down 1,090 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 27,477 tons, up 787 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 78,454 yuan/ton, and the profit is 1,988 yuan/ton; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 81,292 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 2,946 yuan/ton [3] Industry Event - On August 22, a meeting of the lithium iron phosphate material branch council was held to discuss solutions to industry over - capacity and the low - carbon transformation path of the entire industry chain, with 13 participants including 5 listed companies or their subsidiaries [3] Supply and Demand Situation - Although there is a production cut at the Jiangxi mica end, overseas mines, overseas salt lakes, and domestic compliant mines have formed a supplement, showing a structural adjustment on the supply side. On the demand side, weekly production is basically stable, with products moving from upstream to downstream but limited actual consumption [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" [4] Core Insights - The association has released a draft initiative to promote the healthy development of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) materials, which are crucial for the growing demand in the new energy vehicle and energy storage sectors. As of the first half of 2025, China's LFP production capacity accounts for over 95% of the global total. However, the industry faces challenges such as low capacity utilization and ongoing losses for many companies due to significant capacity expansion and volatile lithium resource prices [1][2] - The initiative includes four key recommendations: resisting malicious price competition, building a healthy supply chain ecosystem, strengthening capacity self-discipline management, and accelerating the elimination of inefficient capacity to optimize the industry structure [2] - In the first half of 2025, LFP battery installations in China accounted for over 81% of total installations, with a year-on-year shipment growth of 67%. The leading market player, Hunan Youneng, holds a 30% market share with a production of 400,000 tons [3] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The demand for lithium iron phosphate has been rising due to the booming new energy vehicle and energy storage industries. The production capacity in China is projected to exceed 95% of the global total by mid-2025 [1] Recommendations from the Initiative 1. **Resist Malicious Price Competition**: Establish a cost price index for LFP products to provide objective pricing references [2] 2. **Build a Healthy Supply Chain Ecosystem**: Encourage long-term agreements and collaboration among upstream and downstream companies to mitigate raw material price volatility [2] 3. **Strengthen Capacity Self-Discipline Management**: Implement dynamic control of capacity utilization, with measures to pause new capacity investments if utilization falls below 70% [2] 4. **Accelerate Elimination of Inefficient Capacity**: Shift competitive focus from price to technology, product performance, and service improvement [2] Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, LFP battery installations reached 244.0 GWh, representing a 73% year-on-year increase. The top ten companies showed significant production growth, with some exceeding 200% [3]

Group 1 - Longpan Technology (龙蟠科技) shares rose over 9%, reaching a new high of 10.65 HKD, with a current price of 10.48 HKD and a trading volume of 2.11 billion HKD [1] - A notification regarding a meeting of the Lithium Iron Phosphate Materials Sub-Committee has circulated widely in the industry, drawing significant market attention [1] - The meeting took place at the Crowne Plaza Hotel in Shenzhen, where industry association leaders and representatives from the supply chain discussed solutions to address industry overcapacity [1] Group 2 - LG Energy recently signed a contract worth 5.94 trillion KRW for energy storage lithium iron phosphate batteries [1] - In December 2024, Longpan Technology's subsidiary, Asia Pacific Lithium Source, will sell 260,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials to LG Energy, with the agreement spanning from 2024 to 2028 [1] - The signing of the LG agreement is expected to positively impact Longpan Technology's performance [1]

Group 1 - Longpan Technology (02465) saw its stock price rise over 9%, reaching a new high of 10.65 HKD, with a trading volume of 2.11 billion HKD [1] - A notification regarding the meeting of the Lithium Iron Phosphate Materials Sub-Committee has circulated widely in the industry, prompting significant market interest [1] - The meeting took place at the Crowne Plaza Hotel in Shenzhen, where industry association leaders and representatives from the supply chain discussed solutions to address industry overcapacity [1] Group 2 - LG Energy recently signed a contract worth 5.94 trillion KRW for energy storage lithium iron phosphate batteries [1] - In December 2024, Longpan Technology's subsidiary, Asia Pacific Lithium Source, will sell 260,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials to LG Energy, with the agreement spanning from 2024 to 2028 [1] - The signing of the LG agreement is expected to positively impact Longpan Technology's performance [1]

Core Insights - The lithium iron phosphate (LFP) industry is facing challenges related to overcapacity and the need for structural adjustments, as discussed in a recent closed-door meeting in Shenzhen [1] - The demand for LFP is expected to grow significantly in the second half of 2024, driven by the energy storage battery sector and the mass production of next-generation materials [1] - By the first half of 2025, China's LFP production is projected to reach 1.632 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 66.6%, with total available capacity rising to 5.32 million tons [1] Group 1 - The meeting focused on addressing the issue of outdated production capacity in the LFP industry and exploring low-carbon transformation paths for the entire supply chain [1] - The current supply-demand situation is characterized by an overall surplus but a structural shortage, with high-quality capacity being relatively scarce while low-end capacity is excessive [1] - Leading companies maintain over 70% operating rates due to their technological, financial, and supply chain advantages, while smaller firms face idle capacity due to lower product quality [1] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" trend in the LFP sector may lead to the elimination of certain capacities, particularly those unable to keep pace with product upgrades, those affected by bankruptcies, and those with poorly designed production lines [2] - The New Energy Vehicle (NEV) ETF closely tracks the CSI New Energy Vehicle Industry Index, with nearly half of its component stocks being from the battery sector, indicating potential benefits from the industry's "anti-involution" [2] - As of July 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI New Energy Vehicle Industry Index include major players like CATL, BYD, and Ganfeng Lithium, collectively accounting for 55.33% of the index [2]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium iron phosphate (LFP) industry is at a critical turning point, with a significant focus on capacity clearance amid market polarization and increasing demand for high-end products [1][3][5]. Market Dynamics - The LFP industry has shown a dual development trend, with product prices under pressure, as the average price of power-type products has fallen below 32,000 yuan/ton [1]. - In the first half of this year, China's LFP production reached 1.632 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 66.6%, while total capacity rose to 5.32 million tons, indicating an overall low utilization rate [1][5]. - The demand for LFP materials in the new energy vehicle (NEV) and energy storage sectors remains strong, with LFP battery installation reaching 409 GWh last year, accounting for 74.6% of total installations, and 288.9 GWh in the first seven months of this year, representing 81.3% [3][4]. High-End Orders - Major companies like CATL and BYD have signed long-term contracts worth over 20 billion yuan, reflecting their confidence in the long-term demand for LFP materials [4][5]. - CATL has signed contracts exceeding 20 billion yuan with multiple LFP suppliers, covering a supply period of 3-5 years, with one of the largest contracts estimated at 1.3231 million tons [4]. Capacity Clearance - The LFP industry is experiencing accelerated clearance of low-end capacity, with many small manufacturers facing idle capacity due to low operational rates, while leading companies maintain over 70% operational rates [5][6]. - The overall effective utilization rate of the industry is low, leading to a situation of "overcapacity but structural tightness" [5]. Policy Support - The Chinese government continues to support the NEV and energy storage industries, with policies encouraging the development of core materials and high-end product customization [4][8]. - Recent policies aim to guide the exit of outdated capacities, promoting a healthier industry structure [6]. Technological Upgrades - The rapid growth of the NEV and energy storage markets is driving technological upgrades, with companies urged to increase R&D investments to enhance key performance indicators [7]. - The market for high-performance materials is expected to grow from 30% to over 50% next year [7]. Industry Consolidation - The industry is likely to see consolidation, with 3-5 global leading companies emerging in the next 2-3 years due to increased competition and market integration [8]. - The expansion of application scenarios for LFP materials is evident, with advantages in various segments such as energy storage and low-speed electric vehicles [8]. Standardization and Global Opportunities - The industry is moving towards standardization, with national standards being established for LFP materials, facilitating global competition for Chinese companies [8]. - The ongoing global energy transition presents new opportunities for the LFP industry, with domestic and international market demand expected to continue expanding [8].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium iron phosphate (LFP) industry is at a critical turning point, with significant market differentiation and a trend towards the elimination of low-end production capacity due to overcapacity and structural shortages [1][4][7]. Market Dynamics - The LFP industry has experienced a dual development trend, with product prices under pressure, as the average price of power-type products has fallen below 32,000 yuan/ton, while major players like CATL and BYD are placing large long-term orders worth billions [1][5][6]. - In the first half of this year, China's LFP production reached 1.632 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 66.6%, with total capacity rising to 5.32 million tons, but the overall effective utilization rate remains low, indicating a situation of "overcapacity but structural tightness" [4][7]. Demand and Orders - The demand for LFP materials in the new energy vehicle and energy storage sectors remains strong, with LFP batteries accounting for 74.6% of total vehicle battery installations last year and 81.3% in the first seven months of this year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 68.8% [5][6]. - Major companies like CATL and BYD have signed long-term contracts exceeding 20 billion yuan, indicating strong confidence in the long-term demand for LFP materials [6]. Policy Support - The Chinese government has increased support for the new energy vehicle and energy storage industries, with policies encouraging the development of core materials and high-end product customization [6][9]. Capacity and Competition - The LFP industry is witnessing an accelerated exit of low-end production capacity, with many small manufacturers facing idle capacity, while leading companies maintain over 70% operating rates [7][8]. - The market is experiencing a price war due to oversupply and declining lithium carbonate prices, leading to increased operational pressures on companies [8]. Future Outlook - The LFP industry is expected to undergo technological upgrades and market consolidation, with the potential emergence of 3-5 global leading companies in the next 2-3 years [10]. - The expansion of application scenarios and the establishment of a closed-loop system for battery recycling are anticipated to enhance industry competitiveness and reduce environmental impact [10].

Group 1: Regulatory Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission, along with the State Administration for Market Regulation and the National Internet Information Office, has drafted the "Rules for Pricing Behavior of Internet Platforms" and is seeking public opinion. The rules focus on guiding operators to set prices independently, clarifying price labeling requirements, regulating price competition behavior, and establishing a collaborative governance mechanism [1][2] - The rules prohibit platform operators from forcing or indirectly forcing platform operators to sell goods below cost, which disrupts market competition. It emphasizes that long-term free services provided by platform operators that promote innovation and enhance welfare are not considered predatory pricing [1][2] Group 2: Energy Sector Insights - As of July 2023, the total installed power generation capacity in China reached 3.67 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 18.2%. Solar power generation capacity grew by 50.8% to 1.11 billion kilowatts, while wind power capacity increased by 22.1% to 570 million kilowatts [2] - The average utilization hours of power generation equipment from January to July were 1,806 hours, a decrease of 188 hours compared to the same period last year [2] Group 3: Technological Advancements - The 2025 China Computing Power Conference was held in Datong, Shanxi, focusing on the theme "Building the Foundation of Computing Power to Lead the Future." The conference marked the launch of the China Computing Power Platform, which has integrated sub-platforms from ten provinces and regions [3] - China Huaneng has established the world's first 5-megawatt commercial-grade perovskite photovoltaic demonstration base in Qinghai Province, marking a significant step in the commercialization of perovskite solar technology [3] Group 4: Market Trends - Online sales of computers, smart wearables, and mobile phones increased by 29.9%, 28.4%, and 20.3% respectively from January to July. Service consumption also saw rapid growth, with online sales in tourism, dining, and entertainment rising by 24.8%, 16.6%, and 11% [2] - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index was reported at 1,415.36 points, reflecting a 3.1% decrease, indicating a slight downturn in the export container transportation market [3]