印度贸易部长：印度目前正在就九项贸易协议进行谈判，包括与欧盟的协议。 ...

欧盟贸易专员：阿联酋与欧盟正式启动贸易协议谈判。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Mnuchin, indicated that new trade agreements are expected to be reached with multiple countries before the 90-day tariff buffer period ends on April 2 [1] - Mnuchin emphasized that most U.S. trading partners are negotiating in good faith, with the European Union being an exception [1] - President Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods starting June 1 due to a lack of progress in negotiations [1] Group 2 - Mnuchin is the main representative for trade negotiations with several Asian countries, while negotiations with the EU are led by Commerce Secretary Ross [1] - The slow pace of EU negotiations is attributed to the need for member states to coordinate a unified position, leading to a "collective action dilemma" [1] - Mnuchin noted that negotiations with India are progressing well, although he did not disclose specific countries with which agreements might be reached soon [1] Group 3 - The tariff plan announced by Trump on April 2 is based on whether countries are willing to negotiate in good faith, with the stated tariff levels being a maximum that would only be triggered by retaliatory tariffs from other countries [1] - The previously set tariff for the EU was 20%, significantly lower than the 50% tariff threatened by Trump [1] - Regarding the tax reform bill passed by the House, Mnuchin mentioned that Senate Majority Leader McConnell plans to advance the bill immediately with minimal changes expected [2]

点评： 1、中美发布联合声明，这在外交上是一个很正面且很强的信号。 此前，市场预期普遍为会有新闻发布，但是不会有联合声明，市场上也存在不少"谈崩"的悲观预期。 鉴于有联合声明（在外交中属于级别较高文件）再加上双方的积极表态，我们认为结果是【大超预期】的。 点评： 1、中美发布联合声明，这在外交上是一个很正面且很强的信号。 此前，市场预期普遍为会有新闻发布，但是不会有联合声明，市场上也存在不少"谈崩"的悲观预期。 鉴于有联合声明（在外交中属于级别较高文件）再加上双方的积极表态，我们认为结果是【大超预期】的。 2、这个结果表明美国在关税方面一定已对我方做出了初步让步。 3、我们的预判是美国对中国征收的税率预计将降至50-60%区间之下。 2、这个结果表明美国在关税方面一定已对我方做出了初步让步。 本质上，这次是一个准备谈判的谈 本质上，这次是一个准备谈判的谈判。 我们判断框架性的贸易协议有望在年内谈成，细节性的完整版协议仍将是"持久战"。 前几天，特朗普表示"对中国征收80%的关税似乎是正确的，取决于美国财政部长贝森特"。 1）美国的策略是【尽快打尽快谈尽快签】，越往后拖对美国越不利。 明年2月特朗普要发表一周年 ...

Group 1 - The trade framework between the US and UK indicates that President Trump is willing to make concessions, even without a final agreement, suggesting a potential for lower tariffs [1] - The agreement aims to expedite the customs process for US goods entering the UK and reduce barriers on "tens of billions" of other export products [1] - The UK government plans to lower tariffs on cars to 10% and eliminate tariffs on metals, with final details to be negotiated in the coming weeks [1] Group 2 - Analysts caution that the US-UK agreement may not serve as a viable model for negotiations with larger trading partners like the EU, due to the UK's smaller economic scale [2] - Countries with significant trade surpluses with the US, such as Japan and South Korea, are initiating talks, but progress is limited [2] - The US Secretary of Commerce noted that negotiations with South Korea and Japan are time-consuming, with India potentially being the next country to reach an agreement [2] Group 3 - Japan's chief trade negotiator emphasized the need for the US to reconsider a range of tariff measures, indicating that the US-UK agreement may not be applicable to South Korea's negotiations [3] - South Korea may need to make concessions, such as increasing imports of US liquefied natural gas and easing non-tariff barriers on US agricultural products, to secure lower tariffs on automobiles [3] - The US's basic 10% tariff on all countries is seen as a fixed measure, with the UK continuing discussions on "reciprocal tariffs" [3] Group 4 - The framework lacks insights on non-tariff barriers emphasized by US officials, including regulations and subsidies, with the UK maintaining strict food safety checks despite tariff reductions on beef and other agricultural products [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the US dollar has potential for recovery due to a shift in the Trump administration's focus from threats and large-scale tariffs to trade agreement negotiations [1]

特朗普本想趁火打劫韩国，赚取一波红利给美国续命，如今却不得不面临最坏的情况。 4月28日，韩国贸易、工业和能源部副部长朴成泽明确表示，在6月3日总统补选前，韩国与美国达成贸易协议，"在理论上是不可能的"。 朴成泽的这一表态，直接浇灭了美国在7月8日关税暂停到期前完成谈判的期待。 特朗普上台100天，美国就出现了"债股汇"三杀，经济衰退已经成为了一个极大概率事件。 为了打好太极，韩国代总统韩德洙已经做了万全准备。韩国方面4月28日证实，韩德洙极可能在5月1日到3日期间宣布辞职，并参加总统竞选。其竞选团队已 开始组建，部分幕僚提前离职做准备。 若参选，他将面临共同民主党候选人李在明的强劲挑战，李在明的民调支持率已经超过了50%。再加上尹锡悦、金建希等人正在遭遇多项调查，韩德洙所在 的国民力量党，赢得本届韩国总统大选的概率相当渺茫。 就是在这种情况下，国民力量党还推出了至少七八名竞选者，这使得韩德洙更难进一步集中选票。 要知道，韩德洙本人也曾因"内乱罪"指控，被国会弹劾，后遭宪法法院驳回。可以说，韩德洙赢得总统大选的概率并不大，他这样做的目的，可能就是让韩 国政府找到办法，拒绝向美国政府大幅出让经济利益。 需要注意 ...

印尼预计与欧盟的贸易协议谈判将在上半年完成。 ...

Group 1 - Indonesia is expected to complete trade agreement negotiations with the European Union in the first half of the year [1]