Core Insights - The cross-border RMB settlement volume in Tianjin reached over 630 billion yuan in 2025, marking a historical high with a year-on-year growth of 17%, maintaining growth for six consecutive years [1] - A series of institutional openings, facilitation policies, and precise services have supported this achievement [1] Group 1: Policy and Institutional Support - The People's Bank of China Tianjin Branch has actively supported the development of overseas cooperation parks, exemplified by the China-Egypt TEDA Suez Economic and Trade Cooperation Zone, facilitating RMB usage in Egypt through tailored financial service plans [1] - The expansion of Free Trade (FT) accounts has been steadily advanced, with eight banks now offering FT account services, leading to a business volume increase of 10 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Cross-Border Business Growth - The cross-border RMB facilitation policy has been upgraded from the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region to 16 cities nationwide, increasing the number of recognized quality enterprises from over 1,600 to 9,000, allowing for more efficient cross-border RMB transactions [2] - The establishment of a comprehensive cross-border e-commerce service platform has led to a 1.1-fold increase in cross-border RMB business for new foreign trade formats [2] - The issuance of "Panda bonds" by foreign enterprises reached 6.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.3 times [2] Group 3: Future Directions and Strategies - The Tianjin Branch of the People's Bank of China will continue to enhance collaboration with government departments, focusing on key regions, sectors, and enterprises to promote the use of RMB in cross-border transactions [2] - The RMB settlement volume for goods trade in Tianjin is projected to grow by 24% in 2025, with the proportion of RMB and foreign currencies exceeding 30% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The overall trend of the RMB exchange rate in February 2026 is expected to maintain a "balanced elasticity, moderately strong" tone, with dual-directional fluctuations without significant unilateral appreciation or depreciation [2][3]. Exchange Rate Predictions - The predicted fluctuation range for the RMB against the USD in February 2026 is focused on 6.9-7.15, with different institutions providing slightly varying estimates [3]. - Institutions like Nanhua Futures and Dongwu Securities predict a range of 6.9-7.1, while others like Huatai Securities and Deutsche Bank suggest a range of 6.95-7.15 due to uncertainties in Fed policies [3]. Influencing Factors - The core supporting factors for the RMB exchange rate in February 2026 include: - A structural trade surplus, with a goods trade surplus of $1.076 trillion in 2025, contributing to continuous foreign exchange inflows [5]. - The deepening of cross-border RMB settlements, with nearly 30% of goods trade settled in RMB, enhancing stability [5]. - Seasonal demand for currency exchange before the Spring Festival, which is expected to increase the settlement ratio [5]. - The main uncertainties affecting the RMB exchange rate include the fluctuating policies of the Federal Reserve and global geopolitical risks [6]. Institutional Perspectives - There is a consensus among major institutions that the RMB will experience dual-directional fluctuations without a unilateral trend, with structural trade surpluses and deepening cross-border settlements as core supports [9]. - Differences arise in the predicted appreciation extent and fluctuation range, primarily due to varying expectations regarding the Fed's interest rate cuts [9]. Practical Decision-Making Guidelines - Ordinary investors are advised to avoid unilateral bets and focus on risk hedging, with strategies including gradual currency exchange operations and optimizing asset allocation [11]. - Export enterprises should establish a comprehensive hedging system, utilizing tools like forward contracts and expanding RMB settlement ratios to mitigate risks from exchange rate fluctuations [12]. Summary and Information Access - The core characteristics of the RMB exchange rate in February 2026 are "balanced elasticity, moderately strong," with a fluctuation range of 6.9-7.15, supported by structural trade surpluses and cross-border settlements, while the Fed's policy path remains a key uncertainty [14].

Core Insights - The financial performance of Hainan Province in 2025 shows significant growth, particularly in cross-border transactions and credit expansion [1] Group 1: Cross-Border Transactions - In 2025, Hainan's cross-border payment and receipt scale reached $115.4 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, setting a historical record [1] - The cross-border RMB settlement amount reached 551.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.6%, and the settlement amount for new business formats like cross-border e-commerce surged by 120.5% [1] - The multi-functional free trade account (EF account) system has developed steadily, with 810 accounts opened by the end of 2025, and a business volume of 350.9 billion yuan, connecting 91 countries and regions [1] Group 2: Credit Growth - By the end of 2025, the total balance of various loans in Hainan reached 1.4057 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.7%, ranking second in the nation [1] - The balance of foreign currency loans reached $18.5 billion, positioning Hainan sixth in the country [1] - Structural monetary policy tools have been effectively utilized, with a total of 16.555 billion yuan allocated for agricultural and small business support through re-loans and rediscounts throughout the year [1]

Core Insights - In 2025, Hunan Province's cross-border RMB payment and receipt under current account and direct investment reached 192.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%, accounting for 33.9% of the same-caliber cross-border payment and receipt in both foreign and domestic currencies [1] - The province's cross-border RMB payment and receipt with ASEAN, EU, and Africa grew by 18%, 74.9%, and 29.2% respectively [1] - Hunan added 1,338 new cross-border RMB settlement "first-hand accounts" in 2025, with enterprises completing 49,813 cross-border RMB facilitation transactions amounting to 92.66 billion yuan, significantly reducing operational costs for businesses [1] Financial Performance - In 2025, Hunan's total cross-border payment and receipt amounted to 91.57 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 11.4% [1] - The total current account payment and receipt reached 75.11 billion USD, growing by 9% year-on-year, while the capital account payment and receipt totaled 16.46 billion USD, increasing by 23.8% [1] Sector Analysis - The cross-border payment and receipt in Hunan's manufacturing sector totaled 38.54 billion USD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.2% [1] - The cross-border payment and receipt in the scientific research and technical service sector saw a significant increase, growing 1.7 times year-on-year, indicating an optimization in industry structure [1] Investment Trends - Hunan's outward direct investment capital outflow reached 94 million USD in 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 35% [2] - Among the outward investment enterprises, 154 had total investments below 3 million USD, accounting for 72.6%, highlighting the rise of "small and beautiful" overseas investment firms that leverage flexibility and focus on niche markets [2]

（文章来源：新京报） 新京报贝壳财经讯 1月24日，据中国人民银行云南省分行消息，2025年，云南省跨境人民币收付总量 1001.79亿元，同比增长13%；货物贸易人民币结算占同口径本外币跨境收支比例为33%，较上年提高近 2个百分点；跨境人民币占本外币跨境收支比例为40%，三项指标均创历史新高，有力支持云南高水平 对外开放和高质量发展。 ...

1月23日，智通财经记者从中国人民银行广东省分行获悉，2025年，广东跨境人民币结算规模在全国各 省中位居前三，同比增长21.5%，占本外币跨境收支的比重超过50%，结算量和占比均创历史新高。 责任编辑：秦艺 1月23日，智通财经记者从中国人民银行广东省分行获悉，2025年，广东跨境人民币结算规模在全国各 省中位居前三，同比增长21.5%，占本外币跨境收支的比重超过50%，结算量和占比均创历史新高。 责任编辑：秦艺 ...

Group 1 - The increasing reliance on cross-border RMB transactions is highlighted by a financial director from a silicon export company in Yibin, indicating that quoting prices in RMB leads to smoother transactions and production scheduling [1] - In the first ten months of 2025, Yibin's cross-border RMB payment and receipt amount grew by 167.4% year-on-year, accounting for 56.7% of the total cross-border payments, with a historical high of 5.87 billion RMB in current account and direct investment transactions [1] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) Yibin branch has implemented a dual-track incentive mechanism for cross-border RMB settlement, providing 338,100 RMB in subsidies to nine enterprises, and has expanded the "first-time customer" initiative, achieving a total settlement of 1.57 billion RMB [2] - The PBOC Yibin branch is actively promoting cross-border RMB usage in key industries such as power batteries and crystalline silicon photovoltaics, with the top 20 enterprises in the service list achieving 8.771 billion RMB in cross-border RMB settlements from January to October 2025, with major industries accounting for 52.6% [3] Group 3 - The PBOC Yibin branch has established a "key enterprises in Hong Kong" list to enhance cross-border RMB settlement, with 7.07 billion RMB settled with Hong Kong in the first ten months of 2025, representing nearly 80% of Yibin's total cross-border RMB settlements [4] - The local implementation of cross-border payment services has enabled zero-cost, instant remittances for residents, with 136 northbound and 1,117 southbound transactions processed [4]

Group 1: Foreign Trade Performance - In 2025, Tianjin's total foreign trade import and export value reached 835.87 billion yuan, with exports exceeding 400 billion yuan for the first time, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.1% [1] - The export value of private enterprises in Tianjin reached 843.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 4.1%, with the number of exporting enterprises reaching a historical high of 11,400 [1] - The export of mechanical and electrical products was the largest category, totaling 871 billion yuan, accounting for over 60% of the city's total exports, with a year-on-year increase of 10.3% [1] Group 2: Cross-Border RMB Transactions - In 2025, Tianjin's cross-border RMB payment volume exceeded 630 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17%, marking a historical high and achieving 3.5 times the scale of 2019 [11] - The volume of cross-border RMB business in Tianjin's goods trade grew by 24% year-on-year, accounting for over 30% of total foreign and domestic currency settlements [11] - The issuance of "Panda bonds" by overseas enterprises reached 6.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 130% [11] Group 3: New Energy Industry Development - Tianjin's new energy industry is expected to achieve an output value of 80 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 9.3% [5] - The city aims to build a comprehensive new energy industry chain, focusing on wind, solar, lithium, and hydrogen sectors [5] - The number of enterprises in Tianjin's new energy industry chain exceeds 110, contributing significantly to the high-quality development of the manufacturing sector [5] Group 4: Policy and Institutional Support - The People's Bank of China Tianjin Branch has established a special working group with ten government departments to enhance cross-border RMB transaction efficiency [11] - The implementation of cross-border RMB facilitation policies has expanded from three regions to sixteen, significantly increasing the number of recognized quality enterprises [12] - The total amount of cross-border RMB facilitation business in Tianjin has exceeded 540 billion yuan [12]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported that by the end of 2025, the total social financing scale reached 442.12 trillion yuan, marking an 8.3% year-on-year increase [1] - The balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 268.4 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.3% [1] - The balance of foreign currency loans to the real economy, converted to RMB, was 1.05 trillion yuan, showing an 18% decline year-on-year [1] Financing Structure - By the end of 2025, RMB loans to the real economy accounted for 60.7% of the total social financing scale, down 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The proportion of foreign currency loans to the real economy was 0.2%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Government bonds represented 21.5% of the total financing structure, an increase of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [2] Annual Financing Increment - The total increment in social financing for 2025 was 35.6 trillion yuan, which is 3.34 trillion yuan more than the previous year [3] - RMB loans to the real economy increased by 15.91 trillion yuan, which is a decrease of 1.13 trillion yuan compared to the previous year [3] - Government bond net financing reached 13.84 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.54 trillion yuan year-on-year [3] Currency and Deposits - By the end of 2025, the broad money supply (M2) was 340.29 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8.5% year-on-year growth [3] - RMB deposits increased by 26.41 trillion yuan in 2025, with household deposits rising by 14.64 trillion yuan [4] - The total amount of cash injected into the economy in 2025 was 1.31 trillion yuan [3] Interbank Market Activity - The total transaction volume in the interbank RMB market for 2025 was 2180.31 trillion yuan, with an average daily transaction of 8.79 trillion yuan, up 2.1% year-on-year [4] - The weighted average interest rate for interbank borrowing in December 2025 was 1.36%, lower than both the previous month and the same period last year [4] Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of December 2025, the national foreign exchange reserves stood at 3.36 trillion USD, with the RMB exchange rate at 7.0288 yuan per USD [5] - The cross-border RMB settlement amount for the current account in 2025 was 17.86 trillion yuan, with goods trade accounting for 13.72 trillion yuan [5]

Group 1 - The total social financing scale at the end of 2025 was 442.12 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3% [2] - The balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 268.4 trillion yuan, increasing by 6.3% year-on-year [2] - The balance of foreign currency loans to the real economy decreased by 18% year-on-year, amounting to 1.05 trillion yuan [2] Group 2 - The total increment of social financing for the year 2025 was 35.6 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 3.34 trillion yuan compared to the previous year [4] - The increase in RMB loans to the real economy was 15.91 trillion yuan, which is a decrease of 1.13 trillion yuan year-on-year [4] - The net financing of corporate bonds was 2.39 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.825 trillion yuan year-on-year [4] Group 3 - The broad money supply (M2) at the end of December was 340.29 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5% [5] - The narrow money supply (M1) was 115.51 trillion yuan, increasing by 3.8% year-on-year [5] - The cash in circulation (M0) was 14.13 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.2% [5] Group 4 - The total balance of deposits in RMB and foreign currencies was 336.14 trillion yuan at the end of December, with a year-on-year growth of 9% [6] - The increase in RMB deposits for the year was 26.41 trillion yuan, with household deposits increasing by 14.64 trillion yuan [6] Group 5 - The total balance of RMB loans at the end of December was 271.91 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4% [8] - The increase in loans to households was 4.417 trillion yuan, while loans to enterprises increased by 15.47 trillion yuan [8] Group 6 - The average weighted interest rate for interbank RMB market lending in December was 1.36%, lower than the previous month and the same period last year [10] - The total transaction volume in the interbank RMB market for the year was 2180.31 trillion yuan, with an average daily transaction of 8.79 trillion yuan [10] Group 7 - The national foreign exchange reserves at the end of December were 3.36 trillion USD [11] - The exchange rate for RMB against USD was 7.0288 at the end of December [11] Group 8 - The total amount of cross-border RMB settlements under the current account for 2025 was 17.86 trillion yuan [12] - The cross-border RMB settlement amount for direct investment was 8.46 trillion yuan [12]