策略报告 | 投资策略 降息周期或将至 证券研究报告 政策与大类资产配置周观察 海内外政策要闻 国务院召开第九次全体会议强调努力完成全年经济社会发展目标任务。国务院总 理李强8月18日主持召开国务院第九次全体会议，深入学习贯彻习近平总书记关 于当前经济形势和经济工作的重要讲话精神，强调要切实把思想和行动统一到党 中央对形势的科学判断和决策部署上来，巩固拓展经济回升向好势头，努力完成 全年经济社会发展目标任务。 习近平总书记出席西藏自治区成立60周年庆祝活动。8月20日，中共中央总书记、 国家主席、中央军委主席习近平率中央代表团20日中午乘专机抵达拉萨，出席西 藏自治区成立60周年庆祝活动。 2025年杰克逊霍尔会议闭幕。备受市场瞩目的2025年杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会 于8月21日至23日在怀俄明州举行，今年会议主题是"转型之中的劳动力市场： 人口统计、生产力和宏观经济政策"。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔认为当前的形势 意味着，就业面临的下行风险上升。这种风险平衡的转变可能意味着需要降息。 国内外政策导向分析 上周（8.18-8.22）海外政策聚焦于2025年杰克逊霍尔会议闭幕，鲍威尔以美联 储主席的身份发表演讲并 ...

股债跷跷板依然主导，关注长端债券机会 摘 要： 据 21 世纪经济报道，规模高达 5000 亿元的新型政策性金融工 具将出，重点投向新兴产业、基础设施等领域，国家开发银行、中 国农业发展银行、中国进出口银行等政策性银行参与其中。央行新 增支农支小再贷款额度 1000 亿元，引导和鼓励金融机构加大对北 京、河北、吉林、山东、甘肃等受灾地区的经营主体特别是小微企 业、个体工商户，以及农业、养殖企业和农户的信贷支持力度。随 着 7 月官方制造业 PMI 为 49.3，环比下降 0.4 个百分点，制造业景 气水平有所回落，综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.2，下降 0.5 个百分点， 下半年在保证流动性宽松的总基调之下，关键的重大基础设施，重 大项目依然可期，逆周期调节视情况适时加码。 进入三季度，往往是债市发行的高峰期，和债市需求的较弱时 期，当然近些年，债市的发行有前置发行的特点，但是债市三季度 供需规律一定程度依然适用，叠加风险偏好不断修复，股债跷跷板 持续利空债市，长端债市供需矛盾或更加突出，利空因素更加明显。 7 月政治局会议召开，定调了下半年的政策基调，积极的财政政策 和适度宽松的货币政策，是下半年的主基调 ...

央行公告表示，本次增加的1000亿支农支小再贷款额度旨在加大对北京、河北、吉林、山东、甘肃等受 灾地区经营主体，特别是小微企业、个体工商户，以及农业、养殖企业和农户的信贷支持力度。去年同 期，央行也曾增加支农支小再贷款额度1000亿元以应对夏季自然灾害。 长沙晚报掌上长沙8月22日讯 据人民网消息 近日，中国人民银行（以下简称"央行"）新增支农支小再贷 款额度1000亿元。这是央行继今年5月增加支农支小再贷款额度3000亿元后，再一次做出相关政策调 整。 ...

Core Points - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has increased the quota for agricultural and small business re-lending by 100 billion yuan to encourage financial institutions to support affected regions, particularly small and micro enterprises, individual businesses, and agricultural sectors [1] - The re-lending program is part of a long-term tool to support inclusive finance, with a previous increase of 300 billion yuan announced in May to bolster support for inclusive finance [1] - The current period is critical for flood prevention and disaster relief, with the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Emergency Management pre-allocating disaster relief funds to support emergency response efforts [1] - The PBOC had previously added 100 billion yuan to the re-lending quota last August to support flood relief and post-disaster reconstruction in 12 provinces [1] - The initiative aims to provide low-cost funds to financial institutions in disaster-stricken areas, enhancing their ability to serve local businesses [1] - The PBOC will supervise local branches to effectively utilize the new re-lending quota and guide financial institutions to meet the financing needs for flood relief and reconstruction [2]

近日召开的中央政治局会议强调，要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，并提出 要"用好各项结构性货币政策工具"，为下半年货币政策走向定下基调。受访专家认为，应继续发挥好货 币政策工具的总量和结构双重功能，并更多采用结构性工具，突出支持科技创新、提振消费等主线，助 力经济结构转型和产业升级，提升新旧动能转换效能。 强化牵引带动作用 近年来，人民银行在实施总量政策的同时，围绕支持重大战略、重点领域和薄弱环节，创设和实施结构 性货币政策工具，以进一步提升金融服务对经济结构调整、经济高质量发展的适配性和精准性。 今年5月份，人民银行创设了服务消费与养老再贷款、科技创新债券风险分担工具。其中，服务消费与 养老再贷款额度5000亿元，用于激励引导金融机构加大对服务消费重点领域和养老产业的金融支持；科 技创新债券风险分担工具支持股权投资机构发行科技创新债券融资。 招联首席研究员董希淼表示，结构性货币政策工具有助于强化对金融机构的政策激励，进一步发挥货币 政策对金融机构的牵引带动作用，激励金融机构加强对重大战略、重点领域和薄弱环节的支持服务。 截至今年一季度末，结构性货币政策工具余额5.9万亿元，已成为人民银行重要 ...

Monetary Policy Implementation - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need for a moderately accommodative monetary policy to align with domestic and international economic conditions, ensuring ample liquidity and matching social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations [1][2][3] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the execution of monetary policy measures and maintaining a balance in interest and exchange rates to support economic recovery [3][4] Support for Consumption - The report outlines a focus on enhancing financial support for consumption by improving the supply of high-quality services, which is seen as a critical area for stimulating consumer demand [4][5] - It suggests expanding financing channels for consumption, reinforcing credit support, and increasing financial resources for service consumption supply enterprises [4][5] Real Estate Financial System - The report calls for the improvement of the foundational financial system for real estate, emphasizing the need for stable financing and the implementation of policies to support affordable housing [2][3] Policy Coordination - The report stresses the importance of policy coordination among fiscal, employment, and social security measures to enhance consumer capacity and willingness, particularly for low-income groups [5]

Monetary Policy Implementation - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to align social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations [1][2] - The report highlights the importance of maintaining ample liquidity and adjusting policy implementation based on domestic and international economic conditions [1][3] Support for Consumption - The report calls for expanding financing channels to support consumption, including stabilizing credit support and developing diversified financing avenues such as bonds and equity [1][4] - Financial policies will focus on improving high-quality service supply to stimulate effective demand and enhance consumption growth potential [3][4] Real Estate Market Stability - The report stresses the need to solidify the stability of the real estate market by implementing financial policies like re-loans for affordable housing [2][4] - It advocates for the improvement of foundational financial systems in the real estate sector to support a new development model [2] Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Management - The report underscores the importance of balancing interest rates and exchange rates while advancing interest rate marketization reforms [3] - Continuous improvement of the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is necessary to better reflect market conditions and ensure risk pricing principles are followed [3] Policy Coordination - The report emphasizes the need for coordinated macro policies, including fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies, to enhance overall effectiveness [2][4] - It calls for the development of a medium- to long-term consumption strategy and increased support for low-income groups to boost consumption capacity and willingness [4]

Monetary Policy Implementation - The People's Bank of China Qinghai Branch is implementing a moderately loose monetary policy to effectively promote credit growth in key areas and reduce financing costs for the real economy, stabilizing bank net interest margins [1] - The central bank's relending rate was lowered by 0.25 percentage points to 1.5% starting May 7, which is estimated to save local financial institutions approximately 33 million yuan annually, thereby encouraging lower loan rates for agricultural, small, and private enterprises [1] Loan Rate Adjustments - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) was reduced by 0.1 percentage points on May 20, leading to an estimated annual interest savings of about 70 million yuan for various loan entities in the province [1] - The personal housing provident fund loan rate was decreased by 0.25 percentage points, expected to save around 8.6 million yuan annually for 115,000 households, while commercial housing loan rates adjustments are projected to save approximately 5.7 million yuan for 180,000 households [1] Support for Innovation and Green Initiatives - Structural monetary policy tools are being utilized to support technological innovation, consumer services, elderly care, and green low-carbon initiatives, with 26.1 billion yuan in loans provided to technology innovation and equipment upgrade projects [2] - Over 51.2 billion yuan has been allocated for carbon reduction support tools, leading to 85.3 billion yuan in carbon reduction loans and a reduction of 3.21 million tons of carbon emissions [2] Bond Market Developments - The establishment of a bond market support framework for technology innovation and private enterprises has been initiated, with the successful issuance of 300 million yuan in technology innovation bonds by Xikang Group at a record low interest rate of 1.78% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing efforts of China's macroeconomic policies to support economic stability and growth amid complex external challenges, emphasizing the role of structural monetary policy tools in targeting specific sectors and weaknesses in the economy [1][2]. Group 1: Structural Monetary Policy Tools - Structural monetary policy tools are highlighted as essential for providing precise support to specific economic sectors and weak links, with a focus on technology innovation and consumption [1][2]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) plans to create new loans for consumption and elderly care, increase the quotas for technology innovation and agricultural loans by 300 billion yuan each, and reduce interest rates on various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points [1][2]. - By May 2025, loans for technology innovation and technological transformation are expected to reach 1.7 trillion yuan, which is 1.9 times the amount at the end of 2024, indicating the effectiveness of these tools [2]. Group 2: Financing Costs and Economic Support - The average interest rate for new corporate loans from January to June was approximately 3.3%, down about 45 basis points from the previous year, while personal housing loan rates were around 3.1%, down about 60 basis points [2][3]. - The PBOC aims to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy by improving the transmission of monetary policy and reducing overall financing costs, particularly focusing on non-interest costs such as collateral and intermediary service fees [3][4]. Group 3: Liquidity Management - The PBOC has lowered the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, injecting approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity, and has maintained a stable liquidity supply through various monetary policy tools [4][5]. - The expectation is that the PBOC will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the second half of the year, utilizing reverse repos and other tools to ensure ample liquidity for government bond issuance and credit support [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) Shandong Branch reported a significant increase in the balance of agricultural and small business re-loans, which supports the credit expansion of small and medium-sized banks in the province [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Data Overview - As of the end of June, the balance of agricultural and small business re-loans in Shandong Province reached 228.4 billion yuan, an increase of 16.5 billion yuan year-on-year, effectively supporting the credit expansion of local small and medium-sized banks [1][4]. - The total balance of various loans in Shandong Province reached 4.76 trillion yuan by the end of June, with an increase of 247.3 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, and a year-on-year increase of 5.9 billion yuan [4]. Group 2: Loan Rate and Structure - The interest rate for one-year agricultural and small business re-loans has been reduced to 1.5%, contributing to a decrease in the borrowing costs for small and medium-sized banks [5]. - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans by small and medium-sized banks in Shandong Province was 4.64% in the first half of 2025, down by 0.24 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Group 3: Credit Structure Optimization - The PBOC Shandong Branch has implemented a mechanism to support key areas such as green finance and technological innovation through re-loans, with various departments providing interest subsidies and facilitating bank-enterprise connections [5]. - By the end of June, the balances of agricultural loans, small business loans, green loans, and medium-to-long-term loans were 1.43 trillion yuan, 1.73 trillion yuan, 359.5 billion yuan, and 2.21 trillion yuan respectively, all showing significant year-on-year increases [5]. Group 4: Future Directions - The PBOC Shandong Branch plans to continue guiding banks to effectively utilize re-loan policies, focusing on both the total amount and structural functions of re-loans to further support the development of the real economy [6].