Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market shows that on Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton dropped 0.42% to 63.46 cents per pound, while the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton rose 1.05% to 14,910 yuan per ton, with the main - contract positions decreasing by 18,141 lots to 805,100 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,880 yuan per ton, up 145 yuan from the previous day. Internationally, the Fed's January interest - rate meeting had no change, and the market saw Powell's statement as dovish, but it had little impact on U.S. cotton prices. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton rose with reduced positions. The textile enterprises' pre - holiday stocking was limited, and their raw material inventory was at a medium - to - high level. With the Spring Festival approaching, demand was weakly boosted. The current cotton inventory was at a high level this year, and imported cotton increased, so the supply was abundant. The cotton price is expected to be range - bound before the holiday and promising in the long - term [2]. - For the sugar market, the European Commission proposed to suspend duty - free sugar imports to relieve pressure on sugar producers. In the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, the EU's raw sugar imports reached 587,000 tons, a 19% increase year - on - year, about 95% from Brazil; refined sugar imports were 155,000 tons, a 5% increase, about 43% from Brazil. The spot prices of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar - making groups increased. Raw sugar is in the production - realization stage in the Northern Hemisphere, lacking a trending market. Recently, due to the general rise of commodities, sugar prices rebounded significantly. If the May contract rebounds to around 5,300 yuan per ton, pay attention to enterprises' hedging intentions; in the medium - term, focus on the arbitrage opportunities between the May and September contracts [2]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Daily Data Monitoring - For cotton, the 3 - 5 spread was 55 yuan, down 70 yuan; the main - contract basis was 1193 yuan, up 200 yuan. The spot price in Xinjiang was 15,832 yuan per ton, up 214 yuan, and the national price was 16,103 yuan per ton, up 170 yuan [3]. - For sugar, the 3 - 5 spread was 9 yuan, up 6 yuan; the main - contract basis was 93 yuan, down 30 yuan. The spot price in Nanning was 5,320 yuan per ton, up 50 yuan, and in Liuzhou was 5,350 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan [3]. 2. Market Information - On January 29, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 10,243, an increase of 34 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 1072 [4]. - On January 29, the arrival prices of cotton in different domestic regions were: 15,832 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 16,145 yuan per ton in Henan, 16,165 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 16,225 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [4]. - On January 29, the comprehensive load of yarn was 47.4, down 0.1 from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 24.3, down 0.2; the comprehensive load of staple - fiber cloth was 50.5, unchanged; the comprehensive inventory of staple - fiber cloth was 32.3, unchanged [4]. - On January 29, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5,320 yuan per ton, up 50 yuan from the previous trading day; in Liuzhou, it was 5,350 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan [4]. - On January 29, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 14,119, up 404 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 89 [5]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts including cotton's main - contract closing price, main - contract basis, 3 - 5 spread, 1% tariff - quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, and China's cotton price index; as well as sugar's main - contract closing price, main - contract basis, 3 - 5 spread, and warehouse receipts and effective forecasts [7][11][14][17]. 4. Research Team Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource - product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. She has won many titles such as "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" and "Senior Senior Analyst of Sugar at Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange" [19]. - Zhang Linglu is an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for futures varieties like urea and soda - ash glass. She has won many awards including "Senior Senior Analyst of Soda - ash at Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange" [20]. - Sun Chengzhen is an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in the fundamental research of varieties such as cotton and cotton yarn. He has won titles like "Senior Analyst of Textile Products at Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange" [21].

【冠通期货研究报告】 软商品日报：溢价回落，注意支撑 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 28 日 棉花：新疆棉库存下降，加工企业积极销售，现货基差坚挺，下游棉纱品种 延续分化表现，中高支纱订单稳定，低支纱偏弱运行。整体看，短期市场基本面 驱动有限，价格跟随市场情绪波动，或将延续区间震荡态势。棉企库存较为充裕， 积极报价促销，纺企逢下跌点价增加，上涨过程中成交有所减少，年前补库进入 最后阶段，局部成交略增。下午盘面出现明显上涨，不过外盘反应平平，内外棉 差价继续扩大。关注上方一万五关口压力，短期仍然高位调整看待。 白糖：1 月 27 日，印度食品部宣布 2026 年 2 月的食糖内销配额为 225 万 吨，较 1 月的 220 万吨增加 5 万吨，该配额将从 2026 年 2 月 1 日起生效。市场 专家指出，随着 2026 年 2 月 225 万吨食糖配额公告的发布，叠加斋月（2 月 17 日开始持续至 3 月中旬）的开启，国内食糖市场预计将保持看涨态势。节日期间 需求动能预计维持强劲，且从 2 月中旬起，马哈拉施特拉邦的糖厂将逐步结束压 榨作业，这将有助于缓解市场供应过剩压力。 经测算，配额内巴西糖加工完税估 ...

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term market fundamentals of cotton have limited drivers, and prices fluctuate with market sentiment, likely to continue the range - bound trend. The lower space is relatively limited, and it is mainly regarded as a short - term adjustment [1] - In the context of the production peak of the northern hemisphere's main producing countries and the expected increase in production, the short - term fundamentals of the international sugar market have limited changes. Without other factors, it is expected to continue to oscillate in the range of 14.5 - 15.5 cents per pound [1] - After another round of decline, the market is gradually approaching the crushing cost of southern sugarcane mills. The cost of out - of - quota imported sugar currently has little difference from the futures price, and the downward space is gradually narrowing [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - Xinjiang cotton inventory is decreasing, processing enterprises are actively selling, and the spot basis is firm. Downstream cotton yarn varieties continue to show differentiation, with stable orders for medium - and high - count yarns and weak operation of low - count yarns [1] - Cotton enterprises have relatively abundant inventory and actively quote for promotion. Spinning enterprises increase point - price purchases when prices fall and reduce transactions when prices rise. The pre - Spring Festival restocking is in the final stage, and local transactions have slightly increased [1] Sugar - Brazil exported 1.7376 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first four weeks of January 2026, with a daily average export volume of 108,600 tons. In January 2025, Brazil's sugar export volume was 2.0622 million tons, with a daily average export volume of 93,700 tons [1] - The estimated cost of processing and paying taxes for in - quota Brazilian sugar is 3,997 yuan per ton, and that for out - of - quota Brazilian sugar is 5,077 yuan per ton. Compared with the spot price of Rizhao white sugar, the estimated profit for in - quota Brazilian sugar is 1,443 yuan per ton, and that for out - of - quota Brazilian sugar is 363 yuan per ton [2]

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2026 年 1 月 23 日） 一、研究观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周四，ICE 美棉下跌 0.61%，报收 63.91 美分/磅，郑棉主力合约环比上涨 1.06%， | 震荡 | | | 报收 14730 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 12765 手至 80 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价 | | | | 格指数 15520 元/吨，较前一日上涨 75 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期海外宏观扰动 | | | | 不断，美联储年内首次降息预期推迟至 6 月，美元指数偏弱，美棉价格仍缺乏持续 | | | | 性驱动。国内市场方面，昨日郑棉期价增仓上行。近期关于 2026 年新疆地区种植 | | | | 面积调整的预期交易逐渐降温，市场关注重心回归基本面，聚焦主要在于节前下游 | | | | 备货需求及开工情况。目前来看，上周纺企与织厂有补充原料库存动作，从库存结 | | | | 构来看，TTEB 数据显示纺织原料库存可用天数约 32 天，节前 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 软商品日报：溢价回落，注意支撑 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 22 日 棉花国内棉花丰产预期兑现，供应持续宽松，下游棉纱市场平稳运行，棉纱 品种延续分化，纺纱利润被压缩，纺企补库心态谨慎。全球产量以及期末库存均 处于近五年高位；部分主要出口国家销售进度持续偏慢；国内对于新年度供应题 材炒作热度暂告段落，盘面回落，一定程度拖累外盘表现。下方空间相对有限， 短期偏调整看待为主。 白糖：12 月下半月，巴西中南部地区甘蔗入榨量为 217.1 万吨，较去年同 期的 171.4 万吨增加 45.7 万吨，同比增幅 26.60%；甘蔗 ATR 为 127.49kg/吨， 较去年同期的 123.33kg/吨增加 4.16kg/吨；制糖比为 21.24%，较去年同期的 32.68%减少 11.44%；产乙醇 5.61 亿升，较去年同期的 4.88 亿升增加 0.73 亿升， 同比增幅 14.91%；产糖量为 0.56 万吨，较去年同期的 0.66 万吨减少 0.1 万吨， 同比降幅达 14.93%。 经测算，配额内巴西糖加工完税估算成本 3993 元/吨，配额外巴西糖加工完 税估算成本为 5072 元 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 软商品日报：溢价回落，注意支撑 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 21 日 注：本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于棉花信息网、沐甜科技、 泛糖科技、金十期货网站。 本报告发布机构 --冠通期货股份有限公司（已获中国证监会许可的期货交易咨询业务资格） 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任 何保证。报告中的内容和意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。 我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的任何直接或间接损失概不负责。 本报告仅向特定客户传送 构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版、复制、引用或转载。 棉花：在上年度低库存的现实基础与新年度低进口的未来预期下，国内新年 度整体供应增幅缩窄，而下游在棉纱产能扩张下，棉花刚性消费提升，市场预期 本年度末国内棉花供需或偏紧，同时 26/27 年度疆棉面积下调预期仍存，但国内 棉价走强后，下游纺纱利润受到挤压，内外棉价差也大幅走扩，进口纱或阶段性 增加流入，对棉价上方形成压力。下方空间相对有限，短期偏调整看待为主。 白糖：2025 年，我国进口食糖 491.79 万吨，同比增 56.14 万吨（ ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2026 年 1 月 21 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 周二，ICE 美棉下跌 0.48%，报收 64.36 美分/磅，郑棉主力合约环比下降 0.27%， | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 报收 14525 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 12927 手至 78.81 万手，棉花 3128B 现 货价格指数 15390 元/吨，较前一日下降 50 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期海外宏观 扰动不断，美欧之间关税或再起摩擦，市场担忧情绪升温，贵金属价格上涨，美 | | | 棉花 | 元指数走弱，美棉期价震荡运行。国内市场方面，郑棉连续多日减仓下行，关于 | 震荡 | | | 2026 年新疆地区种植面积调整的预期交易逐渐降温，市场关注重心回归基本面。 | | | | 2025 年整体来看，终端服装零售同比维持正增长，但增幅低于社零。出口方面， | | | | 受到一定影响，服装出口同比转负。进口方面，12 月国内棉花、棉纱进口量当月 | | | | 值均创下年内新高。整体来看，棉花供应充裕，企业年前大幅补库备货动力有限， | | | | 郑棉上行驱 ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2026 年 1 月 20 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一，美国马丁路德金日，ICE 美棉休市，郑棉主力合约环比下降 0.65%，报收 14545 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 21592 手至 80.10 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格指数 3.7%。 | 震荡 | | | 15440 元/吨，较前一日下降 10 元/吨。国内市场方面，近日郑棉期价重心缓慢下 | | | | 移，关于 2026 年新疆地区种植面积调整的预期交易逐渐降温，市场关注重心回归 | | | 棉花 | 基本面。12 月零售数据公布，12 月社零同比增长 0.9%，全年累计同比增长 | | | | 12 月服装鞋帽、针、纺织品类零售额当月值同比上涨 0.6%，全年累计同比增加 3.2%， | | | | 增速均略慢于社零。出口方面，本年度服装出口同比下降 5%。中游纺织企业方面， | | | | 原料成本上涨后，企业开工意愿受到一定影响，目前大中小型纺织企业原料库存 | | | | 储备差异相对较大，关注节前纺企补货动作。综合来 ...

本报告的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性、可靠性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保 证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中的观点、结论和 建议仅供参考，并不构成任何具体产品、业务的推介以及相关品种的操作依据和建议，投资者据此作出 的任何投资决策自负盈亏，与本公司和作者无关。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 白糖： （张笑金，从业资格号：F0306200；交易咨询资格号：Z0000082） 消息方面，2025/26榨季截至1月17日，泰国累计甘蔗入榨量为2926.43万吨，较去年同期的3487.99万吨 减少561.56万吨，降幅16.09%；甘蔗含糖分11.95%，较去年同期的11.87%增加0.08%；产糖率为 9.790%，较去年同期的9.814%减少0.024%；产糖量为286.51万吨，较去年同期的342.32万吨减少55.81万 吨，降幅16.3%。现货报价方面，广西制糖集团报价区间为5310~5380元/吨，云南制糖集团报价5170~ 5210元/吨，整体下调10元/吨。原糖市场因假期休市。国内方面，现货市场成交中性， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, the short - term Zhengzhou cotton may have some divergence at the current position and operate in a range, but in the long - term, there are still things to look forward to on the policy side, and there may still be some room for the cotton price to rise [1] - For sugar, the domestic spot market has moderate transactions, with much speculation about future import controls to support the lower limit, but there is also significant hedging pressure above the 5300 integer mark. As the holiday approaches, it should be treated with a range - bound and weak outlook [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: On Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.57% to 64.62 cents per pound, and the main Zhengzhou cotton contract decreased 0.61% to 14,675 yuan per ton, with the main contract positions decreasing by 6,537 lots to 835,800 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,550 yuan per ton, down 65 yuan per ton from the previous day. Overseas geopolitical situation is volatile, and the U.S. is unlikely to cut interest rates in January, with the U.S. dollar index oscillating strongly above 99. The USDA January report slightly reduced the expected output of U.S. cotton in the 2025/26 season, supporting the U.S. cotton price. In the domestic market, the amplitude of Zhengzhou cotton has narrowed recently. The USDA January report slightly increased the expected output and consumption of Chinese cotton in the 2025/26 season, in line with market expectations. The year - on - year clothing exports this year have declined. The raw material inventory reserves of textile enterprises vary greatly, and attention should be paid to their replenishment actions before the festival [1] - **Sugar**: The spot quotes of Guangxi sugar - making groups range from 5320 to 5380 yuan per ton, with some prices down 10 yuan per ton; those of Yunnan sugar - making groups are 5190 - 5230 yuan per ton, with some prices down 10 yuan per ton. The raw sugar futures price is under pressure due to the decline in energy prices and the significant increase in India's production year - on - year. Attention should be paid to the production progress in Thailand and India. The domestic spot market has moderate transactions, with speculation about future import controls to support the lower limit, but there is significant hedging pressure above 5300 [1] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 3 - 5 contract spread is - 15, down 5; the main basis is 1297, up 137. The spot price in Xinjiang is 15,727, up 10, and the national spot price is 15,972, up 2 [2] - **Sugar**: The 3 - 5 contract spread is 3, up 3; the main basis is 100, up 29. The spot price in Nanning is 5360, down 10, and in Liuzhou is 5380, up 10 [2] 3. Market Information - On January 15, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9329, an increase of 493 from the previous trading day, with 1209 valid forecasts [3] - On January 15, the cotton arrival prices in various domestic regions were: 15,727 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,968 yuan per ton in Henan, 16,060 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 16,168 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [3] - On January 15, the comprehensive yarn load was 49, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive yarn inventory was 26.5, down 0.1 from the previous day; the comprehensive short - fiber cloth load was 51, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive short - fiber cloth inventory was 32.7, down 0.1 from the previous day [3] - On January 15, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5360 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan per ton from the previous trading day; in Liuzhou, it was 5380 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day [3] - On January 15, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 14126, an increase of 4387 from the previous trading day, with 755 valid forecasts [4] 4. Chart Analysis - There are various charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price of the main contract, basis, contract spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, etc., with data sources from Wind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [6][12][14][16] Group 4: Research Team Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of the resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry research, and has won many awards [19] - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass, and has won many honors [20] - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys, and has won relevant awards [21] Group 5: Contact Information - Company address: Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone - Company phone: 021 - 80212222 - Fax: 021 - 80212200 - Customer service hotline: 400 - 700 - 7979 - Zip code: 200127 [24]