软商品日报 2025/10/10 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关 ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 10 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周四，ICE 美棉下跌 0.69%，报收 64.46 美分/磅，CF601 环比上涨 0.38%，报收 13295 | 上方承 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比上涨 15043 手至 55.05 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格指数 | | | | 14500 元/吨，较前一日下降 45 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期市场关注重心仍更多 | | | | 在于宏观层面，美国政府依旧处于停摆状态中。美联储议息会议纪要显示，委员 | | | | 对后续降息路径仍有分歧，美元指数重新回到 99 以上，美棉价格低位窄幅震荡为 | | | | 主。国内市场方面，节后首日郑棉止跌，持仓环比增加。当前市场关注重心在于 | | | | 新棉，依据国家纤检中心，截止 10 月 8 日，本年度全国新棉累计公检量近 20 万吨， | 压 | | | 高于去年同期水平，上市进度稍有提前。未来 10 天，新疆北部气温偏低，仍有少 | | | | 量降雨，对籽棉收购进度仍 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for cold drinks in summer, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently. The international sugar price is weakly oscillating above the lowest point in the past four years. The price of cotton has bottom - support as the commercial inventory is decreasing and the peak season for cotton textile is coming. The strategy suggestion is to mainly wait and see [1][3] Summary According to Related Catalogs Information - The spot price of sugar in Nanning is 5,800.0 yuan, in Kunming is 5,820.0 yuan, and the spot price of cotton in Xinjiang is 14,850.0 yuan [1] Disk Surface - The closing price of US sugar is 16.25, with a change of - 0.43%. The closing price of US cotton is 64.46, with a change of - 0.74% [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by the summer cold - drink demand, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered, and sugar imports have increased significantly due to the expanded price difference between domestic and foreign markets. Cotton: In August, the temperature in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin cotton areas was high and precipitation was low, so cotton was at a high risk of heat damage. The commercial inventory of cotton is continuously decreasing, and the peak season for cotton textile is coming, so the cotton price has bottom - support [1] Inventory Warrants - The number of Zhengzhou sugar warrants is 8,898.0, with a change of - 0.78%. The number of Zhengzhou cotton warrants is 3,030.0, with a change of - 1.66% [2] Conclusion - Sugar: The growth of sugarcane in southern producing areas is generally good, but the sugar beet production in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia is affected, which delays the sugar factory's startup time. The international sugar price is weakly oscillating above the lowest point in the past four years. Cotton: Cotton imports are lower than expected, and the expected ending inventory is lowered. The overall growth of cotton is better than last year, and the demand for cotton is expected to recover during the traditional peak season, so the price has the impetus to rise [3] Data Quick View - **Outer - Market Quotes**: The price of US sugar decreased from 16.32 to 16.25, a change of - 0.43%. The price of US cotton decreased from 64.94 to 64.46, a change of - 0.74% [4] - **Spot Prices**: The price of sugar in Nanning increased from 5,780.0 to 5,800.0, a change of 0.35%. The price of sugar in Kunming increased from 5,810.0 to 5,820.0, a change of 0.17%. The cotton index 328 decreased from 3,281 to 3,280, a change of - 0.14%. The price of cotton in Xinjiang decreased from 14,950.0 to 14,850.0, a change of - 0.67% [4] - **Price Difference Quick View**: Different sugar and cotton contract price differences and basis have different degrees of change [4] - **Import Prices**: The price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged at 76.05, a change of 0.00% [4] - **Profit Space**: The sugar import profit remained unchanged at 1,456.0, a change of 0.00% [4] - **Options**: Different sugar and cotton option contracts have different implied volatilities and historical volatilities [4] - **Inventory Warrants**: The number of sugar warrants decreased from 8,968.0 to 8,898.0, a change of - 0.78%. The number of cotton warrants decreased from 3,081.0 to 3,030.0, a change of - 1.66% [4]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Cotton is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term. ICE US cotton dropped 1.51% to 65.4 cents/pound, CF601 fell 0.82% to 13350 yuan/ton, and the main contract positions decreased by 4260 to 530,600 hands. The pressure of new cotton's concentrated and large - scale listing and limited short - term downstream digestion ability are the main factors, but there are also some supporting factors, and the futures price has reached a phased low level. Attention should be paid to the seed cotton purchase situation [1]. - Sugar is expected to be in a volatile state. Spot sugar prices in some regions have adjusted, and raw sugar prices are boosted by the impact of crude oil on ethanol prices. The market focuses on Brazil's production progress, and after the holiday, it will focus on Inner Mongolia's production progress and September import data. It is recommended to hold light positions during the holiday [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: ICE US cotton and CF601 declined, with the main contract positions decreasing. The international market is affected by macro - level disturbances, and the domestic market is under pressure from new cotton listing. The short - term trend is weak and volatile [1]. - **Sugar**: Spot sugar prices in different regions have different trends, raw sugar is affected by crude oil, and the market focuses on production and import data. The futures market is recommended to hold light positions during the holiday [1]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread is - 10 yuan, down 10 yuan; the main contract basis in Xinjiang is 1603 yuan, down 35 yuan; the spot price in Xinjiang is 14942 yuan, down 13 yuan, and the national spot price is 14953 yuan, down 48 yuan [2]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread is 41 yuan, up 2 yuan; the main contract basis in Nanning is 366 yuan, down 11 yuan; the spot price in Nanning is 5780 yuan, unchanged, and in Liuzhou is 5845 yuan, down 10 yuan [2]. 3. Market Information - **Cotton**: On September 29, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 224 to 3173, with 22 valid forecasts. The arrival prices of cotton in different regions on September 19 are different. On September 29, the yarn comprehensive load decreased by 0.1 to 50.2, the inventory remained flat at 25.8, the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load decreased by 0.1 to 52.4, and the inventory increased by 0.1 to 29.1 [3]. - **Sugar**: On September 29, the sugar spot price in Nanning remained unchanged at 5780 yuan/ton, and in Liuzhou decreased by 10 yuan to 5845 yuan/ton. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 483 to 8981, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4]. 4. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts are provided, including those related to cotton's main contract closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, and China cotton price index, as well as sugar's main contract closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, and warehouse receipts and effective forecasts [6][8][9][10][11][12][14][15][17]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for sugar is "sideways" [1]. - The investment rating for cotton is "sideways" [1]. Core Viewpoints - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for cold drinks during the summer. The import of sugar has increased significantly recently due to the widened price difference between domestic and international markets. The international sugar price is weakly fluctuating above the lowest point in the past four years, with production expected to exceed consumption. The overall growth of sugarcane in southern China is good, but the sugar production in some beet - producing areas in China is affected [1][2]. - The cotton import is lower than expected, and the expected ending inventory is reduced. The overall growth of cotton this year is better than last year. As the textile market enters the traditional peak season, cotton demand is expected to recover, and prices have the potential to rise [2]. Summary by Directory Information - The spot price of sugar in Nanning is 5780.0 yuan, and in Kunming is 5810.0 yuan. The spot price of cotton in Xinjiang is 15050.0 yuan [1]. Futures Market - The closing price of US sugar is 16.35, with a change of 0.37%. The closing price of US cotton is 66.33, with a change of 0.09% [1]. Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by the summer demand for cold drinks, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered. Due to the widened price difference between domestic and international markets, sugar imports have increased significantly recently [1]. - Cotton: In August, the temperature in cotton - growing areas in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin was high and precipitation was low, increasing the risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton. The commercial inventory of cotton is continuously decreasing, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textile, there is support at the bottom for cotton prices [1]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts is 9464.0, with a change of - 3.36%. The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts is 3397.0, with a change of - 5.19% [1]. Data Quick View - **External Market Quotes**: The price of US sugar increased from 16.29 to 16.35, a change of 0.37%. The price of US cotton increased from 66.27 to 66.33, a change of 0.09% [3]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of sugar in Nanning and Kunming remained unchanged. The cotton index 328 decreased by 0.27%, and the price of cotton in Xinjiang increased by 0.33% [3]. - **Price Difference Insights**: There were various changes in the price differences of sugar and cotton futures contracts, and the basis of both sugar and cotton increased [3]. - **Import Prices**: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged [3]. - **Profit Margins**: The sugar import profit decreased by 1.88% [3]. - **Options**: The implied volatility of SR601C5500 is 0.0871, and that of SR601P5500 is 0.0824. The implied volatility of CF601C13400 is 0.1257, and that of CF601P13400 is 0.1181 [3]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: The number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 9793.0 to 9464.0, a change of - 3.36%. The number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 3583.0 to 3397.0, a change of - 5.19% [3]. Conclusion - Sugar: The growth of sugarcane in southern China is good, but the sugar production in some beet - producing areas is affected. The international sugar price is weakly fluctuating [2]. - Cotton: Cotton imports are lower than expected, and the new - season cotton growth is good. With the peak season approaching, cotton demand is expected to recover, and prices may rise [2]. Strategy Suggestion - It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For cotton, on Wednesday, ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.75% to 66.14 cents per pound, and CF601 rose 0.07% to 13,555. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,775 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day. The international market's focus is on the macro - level, and the strong U.S. dollar index pressured the U.S. cotton futures price. The domestic Zhengzhou cotton stopped falling on the 24th, and the market sentiment improved. The fundamentals remain unchanged, and there is pressure from the large - scale listing of new cotton. In the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton faces upward pressure but has limited downward space due to multiple factors [2]. - For sugar, the consulting agency StoneX predicts that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 season will reach 42.1 million tons, a 5.7% increase from the 2025/26 season, and the cane crushing volume will reach 620.5 million tons, a 3.6% year - on - year increase. The domestic sugar futures price rebounded above 5500 points, and before the holiday, with margin increases, it is expected to show weak oscillations. Attention should be paid to the crushing progress in Inner Mongolia [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - For cotton, the 1 - 5 contract spread was 15 (up 35), the main contract basis was 1507 (down 86). The spot price in Xinjiang was 15,024 yuan per ton (down 46), and the national spot price was 15,062 yuan per ton (down 71) [3]. - For sugar, the 1 - 5 contract spread was 37 (up 11), the main contract basis was 358 (down 53). The spot price in Nanning was 5780 yuan per ton (unchanged), and in Liuzhou was 5855 yuan per ton (unchanged) [3]. 2. Market Information - On September 24th, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 3716 (down 199 from the previous day), and the effective forecast was 12. The arrival prices of cotton in different domestic regions were: 15,024 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,044 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,064 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,135 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [4]. - On September 24th, the yarn comprehensive load was 50.2 (up 0.1), the yarn comprehensive inventory was 25.9 (unchanged), the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 52.5 (down 0.3), and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 29.1 (up 0.1) [4]. - On September 24th, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5780 yuan per ton (unchanged), and in Liuzhou was 5855 yuan per ton (unchanged). The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 9854 (down 168 from the previous day), and the effective forecast was 0 [4][5]. 3. Chart Analysis - There are multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, and price indices of both cotton and sugar, with data from 2021 - 2025 [7][15]. 4. Research Team Personnel Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of the resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry and has won many industry - related awards [20]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass and has also won many honors [21]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in the fundamental research of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys and won the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's textile senior analyst title in 2024 [22]. 5. Contact Information - The company is located at Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729, Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [25].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Cotton is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term, affected by upcoming large - scale new cotton listings and supply pressure. The short - term decline space of ICE cotton is limited, and attention should be paid to ginneries' purchase intentions and opening prices [2]. - Sugar is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in the near future, but the supply pressure is not fully released. The domestic sugar market is in a weak fundamental pattern, and the future influencing factors include Inner Mongolia's sugar pressing progress and Guangxi's pre - sales situation. A weak view on sugar futures prices is maintained, and attention should be paid to the performance of raw sugar [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Research Views Cotton - On Tuesday, ICE US cotton rose 0.59% to 66.61 cents/pound, CF601 decreased 0.7% to 13,540 yuan/ton, and the main contract positions increased by 10,524 lots to 532,800 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,755 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous day. After the Fed's September FOMC meeting, the overall drive has slowed, with the focus on the macro - level. The US dollar index is weak, and US cotton prices are strong. The number of net short positions of non - commercial positions in the latest week of CFTC has decreased significantly, limiting the short - term sharp decline of US cotton. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton is in a weak trend due to upcoming new cotton listings and supply pressure, and downstream demand has limited short - term digestion capacity [2]. Sugar - In September, Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in the first three weeks were 2.4079 million tons, a decrease of 301,300 tons (11.12%) compared to the same period last year, with a daily average export volume of 160,500 tons. The spot prices of sugar groups in Guangxi and Yunnan decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and some processing sugar factories' quotes decreased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. Raw sugar rebounded above 16 cents/pound, but the supply pressure remains, and the sustainability of the rebound needs to be observed. The domestic spot market sentiment is pessimistic, with sufficient short - term supply and fragile market sentiment. The futures market is led by raw sugar [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring Cotton - The 1 - 5 contract spread is - 20, down 15; the main basis is 1,593, down 21. The spot price in Xinjiang is 15,070 yuan/ton, down 76, and the national average is 15,133 yuan/ton, down 91 [3]. Sugar - The 1 - 5 contract spread is 26, up 7; the main basis is 411, down 2. The spot price in Nanning is 5,780 yuan/ton, down 20, and in Liuzhou is 5,855 yuan/ton, down 10 [3]. 3. Market Information - On September 22, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 3,915, down 181 from the previous trading day, with 12 valid forecasts. - On September 23, the cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 15,070 yuan/ton in Xinjiang, 15,112 yuan/ton in Henan, 15,151 yuan/ton in Shandong, and 15,230 yuan/ton in Zhejiang. - On September 23, the comprehensive load of yarn was 50.1 (unchanged), the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 25.9 (down 0.1), the comprehensive load of staple fiber cloth was 52.8 (unchanged), and the comprehensive inventory of staple fiber cloth was 29 (unchanged). - On September 23, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5,780 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, and in Liuzhou was 5,855 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. - On September 23, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 10,022, down 293 from the previous trading day, with 0 valid forecasts [4][5] 4. Research Team - Zhang Xiaojin is the research director of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. She has won many awards related to sugar analysis [20]. - Zhang Linglu is an analyst of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass. She has won many honors [21]. - Sun Chengzhen is an analyst of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloy. He won the honor of senior analyst of textile products at Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in 2024 [22]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For cotton, the ICE U.S. cotton dropped 0.06% to 66.25 cents per pound, and CF601 decreased 0.98% to 13,610 yuan per ton. The main - contract positions increased by 13,028 lots to 522,300 lots. The 3128B cotton spot price index was 14,795 yuan per ton, down 75 yuan. Internationally, after the Fed's September meeting, the overall drive slowed and there are still differences in the future interest - rate cut path. The U.S. cotton is mainly in low - level oscillation. Domestically, with new cotton flooding the market, the supply pressure is high and the cotton price is moving down. In the short term, the supply pressure is hard to relieve, and the opening price is expected to adjust with the Zhengzhou cotton futures price. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will be in a weak oscillation, with limited downward space [2]. - For sugar, from January to August 2025, China imported 734,300 tons of syrup and white - sugar premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 716,700 tons. The spot prices of sugar groups in various regions have been lowered. The raw - sugar futures price continued to be weak, hitting a new low. With beet sugar about to be on the market, the domestic spot price has further declined. The market sentiment is cautious. The view on the futures market is still weak, and short positions can be held, with the downward depth adjusted dynamically. Attention should be paid to the pre - sale of new domestic sugar [2]. Group 3: Summary by Sections 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: The price of ICE U.S. cotton and CF601 decreased. The main - contract positions increased. The spot price index declined. Internationally, the post - meeting situation and differences in the interest - rate cut path affect the market. Domestically, new - cotton supply pressure is high. In the short term, the supply pressure persists and the price is expected to be weak [2]. - **Sugar**: The import volume of syrup and white - sugar premixed powder decreased year - on - year. Spot prices in various regions were lowered. The raw - sugar futures price was weak, and domestic prices declined with the upcoming beet - sugar supply. The market sentiment is cautious, and a weak view is held on the futures market [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was - 5, down 20. The main - contract basis was 1,614, up 51. The Xinjiang spot price was 15,146 yuan per ton, down 52, and the national spot price was 15,224 yuan per ton, down 59 [3]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 19, up 2. The main - contract basis was 413, down 31. The Nanning spot price was 5,800 yuan per ton, down 30, and the Liuzhou spot price was 5,865 yuan per ton, down 40 [3]. 3. Market Information - **Cotton**: On September 22, the cotton futures warehouse - receipt quantity was 4,096, down 136, with 12 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were reported. The yarn comprehensive load remained unchanged, the yarn inventory decreased slightly, the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load remained unchanged, and the short - fiber cloth inventory remained unchanged [4]. - **Sugar**: On September 22, the sugar spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou decreased. The sugar futures warehouse - receipt quantity was 10,315, down 49, with 0 valid forecasts [4][5]. 4. Chart Analysis - **Cotton**: Charts show the cotton main - contract closing price, main - contract basis, 1 - 5 spread, 1% tariff - quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and the China cotton price index [7][10][12]. - **Sugar**: Charts show the sugar main - contract closing price, main - contract basis, 1 - 5 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts [15][18]. 5. Research Team - The research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, a resource - product research director focusing on the sugar industry; Zhang Linglu, responsible for research on urea, soda - ash glass, etc.; and Sun Chengzhen, mainly engaged in the fundamental research of cotton, cotton yarn, etc. [20][21][22]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton is expected to experience a slightly weak and volatile pattern in the short term, with limited downside space and the need for stronger drivers to break through previous support. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and the opening price of new cotton [2]. - Sugar is expected to continue its weak performance in the short term due to concerns about increased production and high supply [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Research Views - **Cotton**: On Thursday, ICE cotton fell 0.49% to 66.92 cents per pound, and CF601 dropped 1.08% to 13,765 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest increased by 10,790 lots to 502,100 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,890 yuan per ton, down 120 yuan from the previous day. Internationally, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, but there were differences in the dot - plot's prediction of the future interest - rate cut path. The US dollar index strengthened, causing the price of US cotton to decline. Domestically, the market focuses on market sentiment and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton. This year's new cotton is expected to have a good harvest, with the expected opening price of machine - picked cotton at 6.2 - 6.3 yuan per kilogram and the processing cost around 14,000 yuan per ton. In August, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales slowed down, but the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles increased by 3.1%. The operating load of downstream textile enterprises has improved seasonally, providing some support to the demand side [2]. - **Sugar**: In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 62,700 tons year - on - year. From January to August 2025, China imported 2.6121 million tons of sugar, an increase of 121,000 tons or 4.86% year - on - year. As of August in the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, China imported 4.0739 million tons of sugar, a decrease of 277,200 tons or 6.37% year - on - year. Spot prices have been lowered. After the release of Brazil's sugar production and sales data in August, concerns in the market subsided, and the certainty of increased production became stronger, putting pressure on futures prices. In China, the combination of multiple sugar supplies and high imports has weighed on market sentiment, causing prices to fall below previous lows [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 40 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The main contract basis was 1,554 yuan, up 134 yuan. The spot price in Xinjiang was 15,249 yuan per ton, up 23 yuan, and the national average was 15,319 yuan per ton, up 9 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 24 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The main contract basis was 451 yuan, up 45 yuan. The spot price in Nanning was 5,840 yuan per ton, down 30 yuan, and in Liuzhou was 5,925 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan [3]. Market Information - On September 18, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 177 to 4,438, with 12 valid forecasts [4]. - On September 18, the arrival prices of cotton in different regions were: 15,249 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,309 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,344 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,429 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [4]. - On September 18, the comprehensive load of yarn was 50.1, up 0.1 from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 26.3, down 0.1; the comprehensive load of short - fiber cloth was 52.8, unchanged; and the comprehensive inventory of short - fiber cloth was 29.2, down 0.2 [4]. - On September 18, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5,840 yuan per ton, down 30 yuan, and in Liuzhou was 5,925 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan [4]. - On September 18, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 359 to 10,629, with 0 valid forecasts [5]. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts are presented, including those showing the closing prices, basis, 1 - 5 spreads, and warehouse receipts of cotton and sugar futures, with data spanning from 2021 - 2025 [7][15][18]. Research Team Personnel Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin is the research director of resource products at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. She has won multiple awards [20]. - Zhang Linglu is an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for researching futures varieties such as urea and soda ash glass. She has also won several awards [21]. - Sun Chengzhen is an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys. He won the title of senior analyst in textile products at Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in 2024 [22].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For cotton, on Monday, ICE US cotton fell 0.01% to 66.82 cents per pound, and CF601 rose 0.4% to 13,885 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest decreased by 8,077 lots to 498,300 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was about 15,167 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan from the previous day, and the national average cotton market price was 15,249 yuan per ton, up 1 yuan. The market is focused on the macro - level with the Fed's September interest - rate meeting approaching and a nearly 100% probability of a 25 - BP rate cut. The USDA report made minor adjustments to US cotton data. New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities in China, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest this year. The hand - picked cotton price remains relatively firm, and the opening price may be between 6.2 - 6.5 yuan per kilogram, supporting the Zhengzhou cotton futures price. The August social retail data showed a slowdown in the year - on - year growth rate, but the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles increased by 3.1%. Overall, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price has some support below but weak upward momentum, and is expected to be in a short - term oscillatory pattern [2]. - For sugar, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) expects Brazil's 2025 sugarcane planting area to be 9.358284 million hectares, up 1.5% from last month's forecast and 1.3% from last year, and the sugarcane output to be 695.491113 million tons, up 0.1% from last month's forecast but down 1.6% from last year. The spot quotes of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar - making groups remained stable, and only the Guangdong Jinling processing sugar factory raised its price by 10 yuan per ton. The raw sugar market was suppressed by the expectation of a bumper harvest. In the domestic market, the peak of spot market stocking has passed, and sales are now stable. The sugar - cane crushing in Inner Mongolia is delayed due to weather. The futures market rebounded slightly following the raw sugar, but caution is needed regarding the upside due to the supply from multiple sugar sources. Attention should be paid to the August import data [2]. Group 3: Summary by Sections 1. Daily Data Monitoring - For cotton, the 1 - 5 contract spread was 35 yuan, down 5 yuan; the main contract basis was 1364 yuan, down 24 yuan. The Xinjiang spot price was 15,167 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan, and the national average was 15,249 yuan per ton, up 1 yuan [3]. - For sugar, the 1 - 5 contract spread was 24 yuan, down 1 yuan; the main contract basis was 386 yuan, down 9 yuan. The Nanning spot price was 5,890 yuan per ton, unchanged, and the Liuzhou spot price was 5,935 yuan per ton, unchanged [3]. 2. Market Information - On September 15, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 4,899, down 118 from the previous trading day, with 2 valid forecasts [4]. - On September 15, the cotton arrival prices in different regions were: 15,167 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 15,217 yuan per ton in Henan, 15,282 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 15,300 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [4]. - On September 15, the yarn comprehensive load was 50, up 0.1 from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 26.4, down 0.1; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 52.5, up 0.5; and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 29.5, down 0.3 [4]. - On September 15, the Nanning sugar spot price was 5,890 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day, and the Liuzhou sugar spot price was 5,935 yuan per ton, unchanged [4]. - On September 15, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 11,325, down 274 from the previous trading day, with 0 valid forecasts [5]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts related to cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and price index of cotton, as well as the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of sugar [7][10][15][18]. 4. Research Team - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. She has won many awards [20]. - Zhang Linglu, a master of accounting and finance from the University of Bristol, is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures, responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea and soda ash glass [21]. - Sun Chengzhen, a financial master from Yunnan University, is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures, mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [22].