软商品日报 2025/12/17 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关 ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 12 月 16 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周一，ICE 美棉上涨 0.16%，报收 63.93 美分/磅，CF601 环比上涨 1.08%，报收 14000 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 50374 手至 34.71 万手，棉花 3128B 现货价格指数 | | | | 14690 元/吨，较前一日上涨 60 元/吨。国内市场方面，宏观层面仍有扰动，市场在 | | | | 等待美国经济数据发布。在此期间，有关哈塞特将当选美联储新一任主席的预期有 | | | | 所降温，美元指数宽幅震荡，持续关注。美棉出口方面，数据更新恢复至 11 月中 | | | | 旬，数据表现相对较好，对美棉价格有一定支撑。国内市场方面，昨日郑棉期价重 | | | | 心上移，突破 14000 整数关口。市场上有关于新年度棉花种植面积调控的消息传 | | | | 出，等待官方报告。我们认为近期棉花多空因素交织，支撑在于情绪、政策、有韧 | | | | 性的需求、偏高的出疆运费等；压力在于 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, on Wednesday, ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.7% to 63.94 cents per pound, CF601 rose 0.52% to 13,485 yuan per ton, and the main - contract position decreased by 11,574 lots to 553,400 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,320 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan from the previous day. The macro - level is the focus in the international market. The Fed's meeting minutes showed some participants thought there should be no rate cut in December, pushing the dollar index above 100. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou cotton maintains a volatile trend. Currently, during the relatively quiet macro - level period, the market focuses more on fundamentals. In the short term, supply pressure is a significant issue, and cotton commercial inventory is increasing rapidly. The supply peak will last for some time, pressuring cotton prices. The downstream textile enterprises' operating load remains relatively stable. Overall, in the short term, Zhengzhou cotton has pressure above and limited downside space, remaining in a volatile pattern [1]. - For sugar, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicts that in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the global sugar market will have a surplus of 1.63 million tons due to increased production. The sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase by 3.15% year - on - year to 181.77 million tons, while consumption will only grow by 0.6% to 180.14 million tons. The supply - demand gap in the 2024/25 season was 2.92 million tons. The spot price of new sugar in Guangxi is 5,600 - 5,660 yuan per ton, and the old sugar price of Yunnan sugar - making groups is 5,450 - 5,500 yuan per ton, with new sugar at 5,400 - 5,600 yuan per ton, down 30 yuan per ton. The mainstream quotation of processed sugar factories is 5,750 - 5,890 yuan per ton, with some down 20 yuan per ton. After the rebound last Friday, the raw sugar futures price has closed above 14.5 cents per pound for 4 consecutive trading days. With no new news from Brazil and the northern hemisphere's production increase already well - known, if it doesn't reach India's export price, Thailand will be the main supplier. Without new negative news, raw sugar shows signs of bottom - building. In the domestic market, with new sugar on the market and higher - than - expected imports in October, market confidence is low, and prices continue to break down. In the short term, the pressure remains high. Attention should be paid to the import data of syrup and premixed powder. If there is no significant reduction, the futures price will continue to seek the bottom [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Sub - group 1: Daily Data Monitoring - For cotton, the 1 - 5 contract spread is - 5 yuan, up 5 yuan; the main - contract basis is 1,294 yuan, down 100 yuan. The spot price in Xinjiang is 14,557 yuan per ton, down 1 yuan, and the national average is 14,779 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - For sugar, the 1 - 5 contract spread is 48 yuan, down 6 yuan. Some data for sugar, such as the main - contract basis and spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou, are missing [2]. Sub - group 2: Market Information - On November 19, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 3,486, down 900 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 1,150 [2]. - On November 19, the arrival prices of cotton in different domestic regions were: 14,557 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 14,816 yuan per ton in Henan, 14,831 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 14,871 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [2]. - On November 19, the comprehensive load of yarn was 51.2, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 26.5, unchanged; the comprehensive load of short - fiber cloth was 51.8, unchanged; and the comprehensive inventory of short - fiber cloth was 29.7, up 0.1 [3]. - On November 19, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 8,428, down 183 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecast was 183 [4]. Sub - group 3: Chart Analysis - There are various charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and price index of cotton, as well as the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of sugar [6][9][11][14][17].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - **Cotton**: The ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.7% to 64.65 cents/pound on Monday, and CF601 rose 0.11% to 13,565 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract decreased by 5,622 lots to 585,300 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,565 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The macro - level is the focus recently, with the weakening of the U.S. dollar index and the continuous decline of the gold price. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 25BP in October, and positive news from Sino - U.S. trade consultations support the U.S. cotton price. Due to the U.S. government shutdown, data is lacking. In the domestic market, it is the peak supply season of new cotton, with large supply pressure limiting the upside of cotton prices. The demand is relatively stable. As time passes, the supply pressure will ease, and the supply - demand pattern will reverse, making the upward drive of cotton futures prices stronger. In the short term, it should be treated as a firm oscillation. [1] - **Sugar**: As of September 30, India's cumulative monsoon rainfall was 937.2 mm, 8% higher than the long - term average, the wettest in the past five years. The NFCSF expects India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season to reach 34.9 million tons, a 19% year - on - year increase. The spot prices of sugar in some regions decreased. Due to concerns about sufficient supply, the raw sugar price broke through the support level and fell to a five - year low. The domestic futures price is supported by cost and hovers above 5,400 yuan/ton. It should be treated with an oscillation mindset, and selling call options can be considered. [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was - 10, down 10; the main basis was 1,268, up 5. The spot price in Xinjiang was 14,690 yuan/ton, up 34, and the national spot price was 14,833 yuan/ton, up 30. [2] - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 45, down 4; the main basis was 305, up 1. The spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou were both 5,750 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 2. Market Information - **Cotton**: On October 27, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2,488, down 15 from the previous trading day, with 769 valid forecasts. The arrival prices of cotton in different domestic regions were reported. The yarn comprehensive load was 51.3, down 0.1; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 26, unchanged; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 51.9, unchanged; and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 29.8, up 0.1. [3] - **Sugar**: On October 27, the spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou were 5,750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 7,795, down 390 from the previous trading day, with 586 valid forecasts. [3][4] 3. Chart Analysis - The report provides various charts related to cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, contract spread, warehouse receipts, and effective forecasts of their main contracts, showing historical data trends from 2021 - 2025. [6][14]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton and sugar are both "Oscillation" [2] Group 2: Core Views - For cotton, on Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.44% to 64.02 cents per pound, and CF601 rose 0.26% to 13,575 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract increased by 6,744 lots to 599,600 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,575 yuan per ton, up 15 yuan from the previous day. There are still macro - level disturbances in the international market, and the U.S. dollar index has large fluctuations. In the domestic market, the recent rise in the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures is due to macro - level good news and different views on the increase in domestic new cotton production in the 2025/26 season. The purchase price of machine - picked cotton in southern Xinjiang has also increased slightly. In the short term, the kinetic energy for Zhengzhou cotton to break through the range oscillation is still relatively weak, with supply increments and hedging pressure above and cost and expectations as support below. It is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term, but the upward space may be limited [2] - For sugar, the spot quotes of Guangxi and some processing sugar groups have decreased. Raw sugar is testing the support at 15 cents per pound. Domestic terminals are in a wait - and - see state and purchase as needed. Spot prices are reducing inventory through price cuts. Weather in the next month is crucial for sugar accumulation, and the market will focus on the game of the deviation of the production increase expectation. In the short term, cost support is emerging, and it should be treated with an oscillation mindset [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Daily Data Monitoring - For cotton, the 1 - 5 contract spread is - 25, up 15; the main basis is 1,209, down 28. The spot price in Xinjiang is 14,652 yuan per ton, up 9, and the national spot price is 14,784 yuan per ton, up 12 [3] - For sugar, the 1 - 5 contract spread is 38, down 8; the main basis is 303, down 41. The spot price in Nanning is 5,750 yuan per ton, unchanged, and in Liuzhou is 5,760 yuan per ton, down 10 [3] Market Information - On October 23, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2,526, down 39 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 482 [4] - On October 23, the arrival prices of cotton in different domestic regions were: 14,652 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 14,794 yuan per ton in Henan, 14,806 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 14,935 yuan per ton in Zhejiang [4] - On October 23, the comprehensive load of yarn was 51.4, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 26, down 0.2. The comprehensive load of short - fiber cloth was 51.9, down 0.1, and the comprehensive inventory of short - fiber cloth was 29.6, unchanged [4] - On October 23, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5,770 yuan per ton, unchanged, and in Liuzhou was 5,760 yuan per ton, down 10 [4] - On October 23, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 8,196, down 117 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 0 [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The view on cotton is that it will be in a volatile state. On Wednesday, ICE US cotton fell 1.2% to 63.65 cents per pound, and CF601 rose 0.3% to 13,535 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract decreased by 417 lots to 593,000 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,560 yuan per ton, up 30 yuan from the previous day. Internationally, there are still macro - level disturbances, and Trump's speech affected market sentiment. Domestically, the upward trend of Zhengzhou cotton futures is due to different views on the increase in domestic cotton production in the 2025/26 season, a slight increase in the purchase price of new cotton in southern Xinjiang, and good economic data in the third quarter. In the short term, it is difficult for Zhengzhou cotton to break out of the volatile range [2]. - The view on sugar is also that it will be in a volatile state. Agricultural consulting firm Datagro predicts that the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 season will be about 625 million tons, with sugar production of 42.3 million tons and a sugar - making ratio of 52%. Domestic spot markets are clearing inventories. The futures price is following the weakness of raw sugar and is testing the support at the 5400 mark. Attention should be paid to India's export policy for the new season [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: ICE US cotton fell 1.2% to 63.65 cents per pound, CF601 rose 0.3% to 13,535 yuan per ton. The main contract position decreased by 417 lots to 593,000 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,560 yuan per ton, up 30 yuan. International macro - level disturbances and Trump's speech affected the market. Domestically, factors such as different views on production, rising purchase prices in southern Xinjiang, and good economic data led to the upward trend of Zhengzhou cotton futures. Short - term volatility is expected [2]. - **Sugar**: Datagro predicts Brazil's sugarcane crushing volume, sugar production, and sugar - making ratio. Domestic spot markets are clearing inventories. The futures price is weak, following raw sugar, and testing the 5400 mark. Attention should be paid to India's new - season export policy [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was - 40 yuan, up 20 yuan; the main contract basis was 1237 yuan, up 49 yuan. The spot price in Xinjiang was 14,643 yuan per ton, up 57 yuan, and the national spot price was 14,772 yuan per ton, up 44 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 46 yuan, up 6 yuan; the main contract basis was 344 yuan, up 2 yuan. The spot price in Nanning was 5750 yuan per ton, down 20 yuan, and in Liuzhou was 5770 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan [3]. 3. Market Information - On October 22, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2565, down 14 from the previous day, with 286 valid forecasts. The arrival prices of cotton in different regions were reported, and the load and inventory data of yarn and short - fiber cloth were also provided [4]. - On October 22, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5770 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan, and in Liuzhou was 5750 yuan per ton, down 20 yuan. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 8313, down 63 from the previous day, with 0 valid forecasts [4][5]. 4. Chart Analysis - Charts for cotton include the closing price and basis of the main contract, 1 - 5 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and the China Cotton Price Index [7][10][11]. - Charts for sugar include the closing price and basis of the main contract, 1 - 5 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts [14][15].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cotton is "Sideways" [1] - The investment rating for sugar is "Sideways with a Weak Bias" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For cotton, on Tuesday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.39% to 64.41 cents per pound, and CF601 increased 0.78% to 13,540 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract increased by 231 lots to 593,200 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,530 yuan per ton, up 50 yuan from the previous day. The international market focuses on the macro - level, with the Fed's two consecutive 25 - BP interest rate cuts this year fully priced in by the market, and the U.S. dollar index relatively strong, so U.S. cotton prices lack a continuous upward drive. In the domestic market, the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures has been rising, influenced by different views on domestic cotton production growth in the 2025/26 season, the rising purchase price of new cotton in southern Xinjiang, and the good Q3 economic data and a significant meeting boosting market sentiment. In the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton is likely to remain in a sideways range, with supply and hedging pressure on the upside and cost and expectations as support on the downside [1] - For sugar, in the third week of October, Brazil exported 2.3346 million tons of sugar and molasses, a 2.68% decrease compared to the same period last year. The daily average export volume was 179,500 tons. The spot prices of sugar in different regions showed some adjustments. Affected by sufficient supply, the raw sugar futures price dropped by over 3% yesterday, with weak short - term rebound momentum. The domestic spot market had average trading volume, with prices continuing to decline, old sugar being actively destocked, and the futures price breaking below the 5400 - point mark, showing a weak trend with short - term bearish sentiment hard to change [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was - 65, down 10; the main basis was 1188, down 26. The spot price in Xinjiang was 14,586 yuan per ton, up 34, and the national spot price was 14,728 yuan per ton, up 49 [2] - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 40, up 1; the main basis was 342, down 10. The spot price in Nanning was 5770 yuan per ton, unchanged, and in Liuzhou was 5780 yuan per ton, unchanged [2] 2. Market Information - **Cotton**: On October 21, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2579, down 19 from the previous trading day, with 263 valid forecasts. The arrival prices of cotton in different domestic regions on that day were: 14,586 yuan per ton in Xinjiang, 14,755 yuan per ton in Henan, 14,753 yuan per ton in Shandong, and 14,913 yuan per ton in Zhejiang. The comprehensive load of yarn was 51.4, the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 26.2, the comprehensive load of staple - fiber cloth was 52, and the comprehensive inventory of staple - fiber cloth was 29.5, all unchanged from the previous day [3] - **Sugar**: On October 21, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5770 yuan per ton, and in Liuzhou was 5780 yuan per ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 8376, down 31 from the previous trading day, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4] 3. Chart Analysis - There are multiple charts including those for cotton (main contract closing price, main contract basis, 1 - 5 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, China cotton price index) and sugar (main contract closing price, main contract basis, 1 - 5 spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts) [6][9][11][15][18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for cold drinks during the summer vacation, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly. The impact of rainfall in Inner Mongolia and typhoons in Guangdong and Guangxi on sugar production needs further tracking and evaluation. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy [1][3] - High temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin in August pose a high risk of heat damage to cotton. The current commercial cotton inventory is decreasing, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textile, there is bottom support for cotton prices. Cotton growth conditions are suitable, but there is a risk of price decline after the centralized listing of cotton. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5,770.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5,740.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 14,550.0 yuan [1] Market - US sugar closed at 15.24, with a change of - 3.36%. US cotton closed at 64.41, with a change of 0.34% [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by the demand for cold drinks during the summer vacation, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered. Due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets, recent sugar imports have increased significantly [1] - Cotton: High temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin in August pose a high risk of heat damage to cotton. The current commercial cotton inventory is decreasing, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textile, there is bottom support for cotton prices [1] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 8,376.0, with a change of - 0.37%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 2,579.0, with a change of - 0.73% [2] Conclusion - Sugar: In August, excessive rainfall in Inner Mongolia was unfavorable for sugar beet sugar accumulation and harvesting, and the opening time of sugar mills was postponed. In late September and early October, typhoons in Guangdong, Guangxi and other major sugar - cane producing areas caused sugar - cane lodging. The post - disaster growth and recovery of sugar - cane need continuous attention [3] - Cotton: The meteorological conditions during the cotton growth period were suitable, and the yield per unit area and quality in some areas were higher than expected. As of October 6, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was 24.9%, 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The opening price of seed cotton was flat or slightly lower year - on - year, and there was a risk of decline after the centralized listing. Cotton prices are expected to range from 14,000 to 16,000 yuan [3] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy [3] Data Quick View - **Foreign Market Quotes**: US sugar decreased from 15.77 to 15.24, a change of - 3.36%; US cotton increased from 64.19 to 64.41, a change of 0.34% [4] - **Spot Prices**: Nanning and Kunming sugar spot prices remained unchanged; the cotton index 328 decreased slightly, and Xinjiang cotton increased from 14,500.0 to 14,550.0, a change of 0.34% [4] - **Price Difference Quick View**: The price differences of SR01 - 05, SR09 - 01, etc. changed to varying degrees, while some remained unchanged [4] - **Import Prices**: The import price of cotton cotlookA remained unchanged [4] - **Profit Margin**: The sugar import profit remained unchanged [4] - **Options**: The implied volatilities of SR601C5400, SR601P5400, CF601C13600, and CF601P13600 are given, along with the historical volatilities of relevant futures [4] - **Inventory Warehouse Receipts**: Sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 8,407.0 to 8,376.0, a change of - 0.37%; cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 2,598.0 to 2,579.0, a change of - 0.73% [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, on Thursday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.03% to 63.78 cents per pound, and CF601 rose 0.49% to 13,320 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract increased by 5,766 lots to 586,600 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,420 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day. In the international market, the overall driving force of U.S. cotton is limited recently, and the data is still in a relatively vacuum period due to the U.S. government shutdown. In the short term, U.S. cotton prices are expected to remain in a low - level shock. In the domestic market, the focus is on new cotton. The supply pressure has increased during the new cotton listing period, and the new cotton volume this year has reached a 10 - year high with an earlier listing progress. There is a short - term mismatch between supply and demand, but the supply - demand pattern of cotton in China, the U.S., and the world has narrowed compared to the previous year. After the supply pressure eases, cotton prices may improve. Overall, the upward pressure on Zhengzhou cotton remains in the short term [1]. - For sugar, in the second half of September, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil reached 3.137 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.76%. The sugar - making ratio of sugarcane was 51.17%, lower than the 53.49% in the first half of September. The cumulative sugar production as of September reached 33.524 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.84%. Although the cumulative production has continued to rise year - on - year, the decline in the sugar - making ratio has temporarily alleviated market concerns, but the futures price rebound is weak due to over - production. In the domestic market, the spot price has been continuously lowered, and the cost support has gradually emerged after the futures price fell to 5,400 yuan per ton. Before the raw sugar makes a new breakthrough, the domestic market is expected to fluctuate, waiting for the import data in September and the estimated production of the new sugar - crushing season [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: ICE U.S. cotton and CF601 prices changed on Thursday. The position of the main contract increased. The international market has limited driving force and data vacuum. The domestic new cotton supply pressure is high in the short term, but the annual supply - demand pattern has narrowed. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton has upward pressure [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugar production data shows an increase in production and a decline in the sugar - making ratio. The domestic spot price is lowered, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate [1]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was - 55, up 5; the main contract basis was 1344, down 60. The spot price in Xinjiang was 14,510 yuan per ton, down 3, and the national average was 14,664 yuan per ton, down 10 [2]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 35, up 6; the main contract basis was 372, down 15. The spot price in Nanning was 5,790 yuan per ton, unchanged, and in Liuzhou was 5,780 yuan per ton, down 10 [2]. 3. Market Information - **Cotton**: On October 16, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 49 to 2,724, with 112 valid forecasts. The arrival prices of cotton in different regions were reported. The yarn comprehensive load and inventory, and short - fiber cloth comprehensive load and inventory data were also provided [3]. - **Sugar**: On October 16, the spot price in Nanning remained unchanged at 5,790 yuan per ton, and in Liuzhou decreased by 10 yuan to 5,780 yuan per ton. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 8,438, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4]. 4. Chart Analysis - **Cotton**: Charts show the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and China cotton price index of the cotton main contract over different time periods [6][8][9][10][11][12]. - **Sugar**: Charts show the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of the sugar main contract over different time periods [14][15][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton is expected to operate under pressure. ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.5% to 63.83 cents per pound on Wednesday, and CF601 increased 0.11% to 13,270 yuan per ton. The international market focuses on the macro - level, and the U.S. government shutdown causes a data vacuum. The domestic new cotton supply is at a 10 - year high and the listing is earlier, creating short - term supply - demand imbalance. However, the cotton supply - demand pattern has narrowed compared to last year, and cotton prices may improve after the supply pressure eases [1]. - Sugar is in a weak oscillation state. The average yield of sugar cane in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 6.5% this season. Domestic sugar spot prices are continuously decreasing, and the market lacks short - term drivers. Attention should be paid to the support at integer levels [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Cotton**: ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.5% to 63.83 cents per pound, and CF601 increased 0.11% to 13,270 yuan per ton. The main contract positions increased by 12,867 to 580,900 hands. The 3128B cotton spot price index was 14,400 yuan per ton, down 25 yuan. In the international market, the U.S. government shutdown leads to a data vacuum, and the U.S. cotton price is in a low - level oscillation. In the domestic market, new cotton supply is large and early, causing short - term imbalance, but the annual supply - demand pattern has improved [1]. - **Sugar**: The average yield of sugar cane in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 6.5% this season. The 2025/26 season's 4 - 9 monthly average yield was 77.7 tons per hectare, down 5.5 tons. Domestic sugar spot prices are decreasing, and the market is in a weak oscillation [1]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was - 60, down 5; the main basis was 1404, down 86. The Xinjiang spot price was 14,513 yuan per ton, down 85, and the national average was 14,674 yuan per ton, down 81 [2]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 29, up 3; the main basis was 387, down 16. The Nanning spot price was 5790 yuan per ton, down 20, and the Liuzhou price was 5790 yuan per ton, down 10 [2]. 3.3 Market Information - **Cotton**: On October 15, the cotton futures warehouse receipts were 2,773, down 50, with 96 valid forecasts. The arrival prices in different regions were: Xinjiang 14,513 yuan per ton, Henan 14,755 yuan per ton, Shandong 14,676 yuan per ton, and Zhejiang 14,868 yuan per ton. The yarn comprehensive load was 51.3, up 0.1, and the inventory was 26.1, unchanged. The short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 52, unchanged, and the inventory was 29.3, unchanged [3]. - **Sugar**: On October 15, the Nanning sugar spot price was 5790 yuan per ton, down 20, and the Liuzhou price was 5790 yuan per ton, down 10. The sugar futures warehouse receipts were 8,438, down 50, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - Multiple charts are provided, including those showing the closing prices, basis, 1 - 5 spreads, and warehouse receipts of cotton and sugar, as well as the 1% tariff quota internal - external spreads of cotton and the China Cotton Price Index [6][9][11][14][17]. 3.5 Research Team Personnel Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry and has won many awards [19]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea and soda - ash glass and has also won multiple awards [20]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys and has won relevant honors [21].