Report Overview - The report is a semi - annual report on quantitative CTA strategies, reviewing the market in the first half of 2025 and providing an outlook [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - In 2025, the commodity market showed significant structural differentiation, with strong demand for precious metals as a safe - haven and continuous decline in energy, chemical, and black sectors due to weak fundamentals. Macro event risks still exist, short - cycle strategies have relatively high certainty, cross - sectional strategies have potential, and equity index CTA may remain dormant [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Commodity Market Performance Overview 1.1 Precious Metals' Safe - Haven Attribute Highlights, Industrial Goods Sector Driven by Weak Reality - The commodity market presented a significant structural differentiation pattern. By May 30, 2025, the Nanhua Commodity Index fell 5.88%, the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index rose 1.58%, the Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index dropped 14.57%, the Nanhua Precious Metals Index increased 18.21%, the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index rose 0.16%, and the Nanhua Black Index declined 13.18%. In Q1, the chemical and precious metals sectors led the rise, but then black and chemical sectors fell rapidly. In Q2, black and energy - chemical sectors continued to decline, and precious metals fluctuated at a high level [6] 1.2 Trading Volume Recovered, Tariff Fluctuations Caused Strong Volatility Changes - As of May 30, the trading volume of active varieties was at the 70th percentile historically, and the position amount was at the 85th percentile. Trading and position volumes increased slightly compared to last year, which is slightly beneficial for short - cycle CTA. The Nanhua Commodity Index volatility was affected by the US tariff policy in April 2025. Cross - sectional CTA performed well due to the stable strength - weakness relationship between commodity sectors and varieties [11][14][16] 2. Performance of CTA Strategy Lines 2.1 Commodity Trend Strategies Under Pressure, Composite Strategies Relatively Advantageous - The performance of commodity trend strategies was positively correlated with commodity market volatility. In Q1, strategies suffered losses due to low volatility. In Q2, they recovered with the increase in volatility but started to lose again in May. Cross - sectional strategies outperformed trend strategies due to the stable strength - weakness relationship between commodity sectors. Composite strategies' net value increased continuously in Q2 [20][21] 2.2 Equity Index CTA Gains Concentrated in Q1, Losses Continued in Q2 - Since the beginning of the year, the volatility of equity indices has been decreasing. Except for the "Deepseek" market after the Spring Festival and the impact of the tariff event in early April, the intraday and inter - day volatility of equity indices was at a historical low by the end of May. Equity index CTA suffered continuous losses in Q2, and high - frequency equity index strategies also underperformed last year [24] 3. Performance of Mainstream CTA Factors 3.1 Factors First Declined Then Rose, with Continuous Differentiation - In Q1, factors were under pressure due to low - volatility market conditions. In Q2, both fundamental and price - volume factors recovered with the increase in market volatility. Since May, price - volume factors showed differentiation, with long - term cross - sectional and long - term momentum factors performing better than short - term ones. Most factors had positive returns in precious metals and black sectors and negative returns in agricultural and energy sectors [29][35] 3.2 Gold and Industrial Silicon Significantly Contributed to the Returns of Trend Factors - Gold and industrial silicon showed smooth upward or downward trends this year, contributing significantly to the positive returns of trend factors. Managers with heavy positions in these varieties may perform better than those with equal - weighted positions in all varieties [37] 4. Changes in the CTA Market This Year 4.1 Pursuit of "Quasi - Alpha" Driven by Absolute Returns - From 2022 - 2023, after a long period of strategy wear - and - tear, investors' expectations for quantitative CTA strategies shifted from "high - leverage, high - return" to "seeking stable returns". Some managers tried to obtain "quasi - Alpha" returns by controlling risk factor exposures, but the methodology needs long - term observation and verification [40] 4.2 Subjective Adjustments by Managers May Be Cost - Effective - In 2025, the commodity market had a structured market, and some varieties contributed positive returns to trend - following strategies. In the context of macro uncertainties, subjective adjustments by managers may optimize risk exposure and capture high - odds opportunities [41] 4.3 Variety Selection May Be an Important Factor in Performance Differences Among Managers - In 2025, the futures market presented structural opportunities. Varieties on the GME, such as industrial silicon and lithium carbonate, showed smooth trends and contributed significant returns. Managers who actively deployed in new markets and captured these opportunities had better performance [42] 5. Outlook for the CTA Market in the Second Half of 2025 5.1 Macro Event Risks Still Exist, Short - Cycle Strategies Have Relatively High Certainty - In the second half of 2025, macro uncertainties may continue to ferment, and the commodity market is likely to maintain a wide - range differentiated pattern. Medium - and long - term trend - following strategies face a challenging market environment, while short - cycle strategies may have opportunities by capturing short - term fluctuations [43][44] 5.2 Cross - Sectional Strategies Still Have Potential - In the second half of 2025, the differentiation between commodity sectors is expected to intensify, providing a suitable environment for cross - sectional strategies. However, managers need to be vigilant against strategy drawdown risks caused by changes in the strength - weakness relationship between commodities [45] 5.3 Equity Index CTA May Remain Dormant - Since Q2, equity index CTA has been under pressure. In the second half of 2025, low volatility and broken trends will continue to squeeze the profit space of equity index CTA. It is difficult for this strategy to get out of the dilemma without substantial policy changes [47]

Group 1 - The private equity securities industry in China has shown significant growth in the first five months of this year, with a total of 4,361 registered private equity securities products, representing a 45.03% increase compared to the same period last year [1] - In May alone, the number of registered products reached 870, marking a year-on-year increase of 77.19%, indicating a strong development momentum in the industry [1] - Equity strategies dominate the market, with 2,749 equity strategy products accounting for 63.04% of the total registered products, highlighting their position as core allocation assets [1] Group 2 - Quantitative private equity products have seen a total of 1,930 registrations this year, making up 44.26% of all registered private equity securities products, underscoring the importance of quantitative strategies in the private equity sector [1] - Within quantitative products, 1,339 are focused on equity strategies, representing 69.38% of the total quantitative product registrations, followed by futures and derivatives strategies with 299 products (15.49%) [2] - The majority of quantitative equity products are derived from index enhancement strategies, with 850 registrations, accounting for 63.48% of the total equity quantitative products [2] Group 3 - A total of 1,558 private equity securities institutions have registered products this year, with 1,177 small-scale private equity firms (0-1 billion) registering 2,062 products [2] - Among the 190 active private equity institutions, 66 have registered at least 10 products, with large-scale quantitative private equity firms making up 40 of these [3] - The leading private equity firm in terms of product registrations is Blackwing Asset Management, with 87 products, followed closely by Kuan De Private Equity with 79 products [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the growth and achievements of Kaifeng Investment, highlighting its status as a leading macro-strategy asset management company in China with nearly 10 billion in assets under management [2][5] - Kaifeng Investment was established in 2012 and has offices in Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Hong Kong, focusing on multi-asset, multi-market, and multi-tool investment strategies to achieve sustainable long-term returns for clients [2][5] - The company has received over a hundred industry awards, including the Golden Bull Award and the Golden Sunshine Award, showcasing its recognition in the asset management industry [2][5] Group 2 - The development history of Kaifeng Investment includes significant milestones such as becoming a special member of the China Securities Investment Fund Industry Association in 2013 and entering the hundred billion private equity camp in 2018 [7][8] - The core team consists of nearly 40 research and investment professionals with an average of over 15 years of experience, emphasizing the importance of talent acquisition and team building [9][22] - The company has established a strong research advantage by integrating macroeconomic analysis, industry chain details, and quantitative methods to enhance its investment strategies [19][21] Group 3 - Kaifeng Investment's macro strategy focuses on identifying mispricing in financial assets based on macroeconomic principles, investing in various asset classes including foreign exchange, stocks, bonds, and futures [23][24] - The company employs a bond enhancement strategy that combines fixed-income assets with futures and derivatives, aiming to manage interest rate and credit risks effectively [25][26] - The quantitative CTA strategy utilizes statistical and mathematical methods to analyze market data, supporting overall macro research and investment strategy formulation [29][30] Group 4 - Kaifeng Investment has received numerous accolades, including the Golden Bull Award for Best Private Fund Management Company and recognition as one of the top 50 private fund companies in China [33][34] - The company continues to expand its product offerings and enhance its investment performance, with a focus on achieving high returns while managing risks effectively [35][37]

Group 1 - The overall economic outlook indicates a divergence between the US and Europe, with the US showing signs of short-term cooling while maintaining a strong economic foundation, whereas Europe continues to struggle with weak economic performance [4][23]. - The US economy is experiencing a marginal slowdown, with GDP growth forecasts declining, particularly in private consumption and trade deficits, while private investment remains robust [5][22]. - Inflation in the US is showing signs of persistence, with CPI inflation rebounding over the past four months, indicating a potential for sustained inflation levels above 2% [9][12]. Group 2 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to continue lowering interest rates, potentially reaching 2% this year, as the Eurozone economy remains weak and requires stimulus [23][25]. - Japan's economy is on a recovery path, with expectations of interest rate hikes above 1% this year, supported by rising wages and inflation [30][32]. - The global interest rate environment is likely to exceed market expectations, with the US Federal Reserve maintaining high rates and the ECB facing risks of inflation interrupting its rate-cutting path [35]. Group 3 - The Chinese economy is showing signs of recovery post-Spring Festival, with consumer spending rebounding and real estate sales improving in major cities [36][37]. - Credit growth in China has surged, with January seeing a record high in new loans, although the sustainability of this growth remains uncertain [48][54]. - Inflation data in China reflects seasonal trends, with CPI rising due to increased consumer spending during the holiday period, while PPI remains subdued due to seasonal production slowdowns [43][50]. Group 4 - The US stock market is under increasing pressure due to economic indicators showing a downturn, with S&P 500 profit growth forecasts declining [64]. - The outlook for US Treasury bonds suggests a volatile environment, with recommendations to favor short to medium-duration bonds due to the high coupon advantage [67][68]. - The currency market is influenced heavily by tariff policies, with the US dollar expected to remain strong despite potential short-term corrections [72][73].