以下文章来源于远川投资评论 ，作者沈晖 远川投资评论 . 看更好的资管内容 黄金、白银度过了不平凡的两个月。 先是白银逼空，逼着交易所提高保证金，限制开仓手数。紧接着迎来沃什时刻，白银大跌30%，黄金则遭遇1983年以来最大的单日跌幅。在这场14西格玛级 别的场景里，不少主观 CTA、宏观私募大幅回撤。 其中也包括各家"中国桥水"。火富牛数据显示，申九、金和晟、国恩、尚艺等私募的部分全天候产品，在2月初那周回撤7个点以上，澜音的全天候产品回撤 了20个点。 全天候策略配置了多个低相关性的资产，如果依据风险平价逻辑，低波动率的债券占比较高。在债券表现尚可的前提下，单周出现如此巨大的回撤，大概率 超配了金银。 | 股票类 | | 债券类 | | 商品类 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证 50 | -0.93% | CFFEX2年期国债 | +0.05% | 南华商品指数 | -4.49% | | | | 期货 | | | | | 沪深 300 | -1.33% | CFFEX5年期国债 | +0.05% | 南华农产品指数 | -1.18% | | | ...

黄金、白银度过了不平凡的两个月。 先是白银逼空，逼着交易所提高保证金，限制开仓手数。紧接着迎来沃什时刻，白银大跌30%，黄金则遭遇1983年以来最大的单日跌幅。在这场14西格玛级 别的场景里，不少主观 CTA、宏观私募大幅回撤。 其中也包括各家"中国桥水"。火富牛数据显示，申九、金和晟、国恩、尚艺等私募的部分全天候产品，在2月初那周回撤7个点以上，澜音的全天候产品回撤 了20个点。 全天候策略配置了多个低相关性的资产，如果依据风险平价逻辑，低波动率的债券占比较高。在债券表现尚可的前提下，单周出现如此巨大的回撤，大概率 超配了金银。 | 股票类 | | 债券类 | | 商品类 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 下证 50 | -0.93% | CFFEX2年期国债 | +0.05% | 南华商品指数 | -4.49% | | | | 期货 | | | | | 沪深 300 | -1.33% | CFFEX5年期国债 | +0.05% | 南华农产品指数 | -1.18% | | | | 期货 | | | | | 中证 500% | -2.68% | CFFE ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the banking sector, indicating expected performance above the market benchmark by more than 10% [4][41]. Core Insights - The banking wealth management sector is experiencing a slight increase in scale, with a focus on loan growth at the beginning of the year, leading to a stable overall scale in January [1]. - The industry is characterized by a significant "Matthew Effect," where leading wealth management companies dominate the market, while smaller firms are still in the early stages of development [1][10]. - The transition from pure fixed income to "fixed income plus" and multi-asset strategies is a gradual but firm trend in the industry, with mixed-asset products becoming the main battlefield for this transformation [1][2]. Summary by Sections Wealth Management Product Layout - As of the end of 2025, there are 191 institutions with active wealth management products, with wealth management companies holding 92.25% of the total market scale [10]. - The mixed-asset and equity products are primarily concentrated among large banks and leading joint-stock banks, reflecting a strategic focus on these areas [10]. Performance Metrics - In January 2026, the weighted average annualized yield of bank wealth management products rose to 3.62%, an increase of 181 basis points from the previous month [11]. - The initial fundraising scale for newly issued products in January was 423.8 billion, with most being fixed-income products [20]. Product Development Strategy - Wealth management subsidiaries are advised to prioritize mixed-asset products to build experience in equity and derivatives management before cautiously introducing pure equity products [2]. - Leading firms like Agricultural Bank Wealth Management and Everbright Wealth Management have established scale advantages in mixed-asset products, leveraging their channel and brand strengths [2]. Market Outlook - The investment strategy for 2026 should shift from focusing on yield elasticity to ensuring yield certainty, emphasizing risk budget management and the use of innovative tools and strategies [3]. - The report suggests increasing the development and application of structured products linked to broad or industry indices to meet the demand for stable returns in a volatile market [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the banking sector, indicating expected performance above the market benchmark by more than 10% [4][41]. Core Insights - The banking wealth management sector is experiencing a low overall allocation in multi-asset products, with significant individual differences and early-stage development characteristics [1]. - The industry is transitioning from pure fixed income to "fixed income plus" and multi-asset strategies, with mixed products currently being the main battleground for this transformation [2]. - In January 2026, the average annualized yield for bank wealth management products increased to 3.62%, reflecting a recovery of 181 basis points month-on-month [11]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - In January, the wealth management product scale remained stable, with a total scale of 31.6 trillion yuan, showing little month-on-month change [13]. - The mixed product scale reached 6,383.7 billion yuan, significantly higher than the equity product scale of 271.5 billion yuan, indicating a preference for mixed strategies [12]. Product Performance - The newly issued products in January had an initial fundraising scale of 4,238 billion yuan, primarily consisting of fixed income products, with the performance benchmark remaining stable at 2.33% [20]. - Most of the closed-end bank wealth management products that matured in January met their performance benchmarks, demonstrating a strong performance in the sector [29]. Strategic Development - Wealth management subsidiaries are focusing on mixed products first, gradually building a multi-asset allocation framework before introducing pure equity products [2]. - Leading wealth management institutions are leveraging their channel and brand advantages to strengthen mixed products as core tools for wealth management clients [2].

Market Overview - In 2025, the A-share market experienced an overall upward trend, with major indices recording significant gains, including an increase of over 18% in the Shanghai Composite Index and over 49% in the ChiNext Index [1] - The commodity market showed notable differentiation, with precious metals driven by safe-haven attributes and macroeconomic logic, achieving a cumulative annual increase of over 81% [1] Private Fund Performance - By the end of 2025, among 5,192 private funds displayed on the Private Fund Ranking website, the average annual return reached 31.93% [1] - Quantitative long and subjective long strategies performed particularly well, with average returns of 44.74% and 37.71%, respectively [1] - The active rotation in sectors such as consumption, technology, and high-end manufacturing created substantial structural opportunities for equity strategy funds, supported by active market trading and sustained liquidity [1] Strategy Performance Quantitative Long Strategy - The top-performing quantitative long products included 806 funds with an average return of 44.74% [3] - Notable products in this category included Gaia Qingke, Jintong Investment, and Hanrong Investment [4] Subjective Long Strategy - The subjective long strategy had 2,185 funds with an average return of 37.71%, with the highest entry threshold for the top 20 products [4][9] - Leading products in this category came from companies like Nengjing Investment Holdings and Shanghai Ge Ru Private Equity [10] Composite Strategy - The composite strategy saw 427 funds with an average return of 30.77%, with top products from Shuohe Asset and Tianhui Investment [12][15] Macro Strategy - The macro strategy included 133 funds, with the top products from companies like Jiuqi Investment and Luyuan Private Equity [16][18] - Notably, Luyuan Private Equity's product achieved significant returns, highlighting the effectiveness of macro strategies [20] Subjective CTA Strategy - The subjective CTA strategy had 78 funds, with top products from Yizu Investment and Chiying Private Equity [21][24] Quantitative CTA Strategy - The quantitative CTA strategy included 185 funds, with Hua Cheng Private Equity leading with significant returns [25][27] Private FOF Strategy - The private FOF strategy had 56 funds, with an average return of 20.55%, and top products from Shanghai Taiying and Qingdao Hongyun Ruiheng Private Equity [29][31] - The FOF strategy focuses on selecting and allocating multiple private funds to achieve diversified investment [29]

Core Insights - The recent surge in recruitment by wealth management companies is focused on equity, quantitative, and multi-asset investment strategies, driven by the declining deposit rates and the need for enhanced absolute return capabilities [1][2] Group 1: Recruitment Trends - Wealth management firms are intensifying their hiring efforts, particularly in equity and multi-asset investment areas, with a notable increase in demand for quantitative talent [1] - Positions such as equity investment managers and senior multi-asset investment managers are being advertised, requiring significant experience in public fund research and multi-asset market investment [1] Group 2: Industry Transformation - The concentrated hiring effort is indicative of a broader industry shift from scale competition to capability competition, highlighting the growing importance of investment research capabilities [2] - There is a mismatch between the talent configuration in equity investment and the business development needs, which is a significant constraint on the expansion of equity business [2] Group 3: Strategic Development - Wealth management companies are exploring differentiated development paths in multi-asset strategies to avoid homogenized competition with public funds, focusing on their unique customer base and risk profiles [3] - The core advantage of bank wealth management in developing multi-asset strategies lies in its customer base and risk positioning, which is more sensitive to net value drawdowns [3] Group 4: Differentiation and Collaboration - Compared to public funds, bank wealth management has institutional advantages in non-standard, alternative, derivative, and foreign currency assets, allowing for deeper exploration of "fixed income + X" strategies [4] - Wealth management firms are encouraged to enhance their research and collaboration with private strategies to improve the risk-return characteristics of their portfolios [4]

Core Insights - In 2025, private securities products demonstrated strong performance, with 89.74% of 9,934 products achieving positive returns and an average return rate of 25.68% [2] - The management scale of private funds reached a historical high of 22.09 trillion yuan by the end of November 2025, driven by the growth of private securities investment funds [2] Market Environment - The outstanding performance of private securities products in 2025 is attributed to three main factors: a favorable macro environment, strong liquidity support, and strategic alignment with market structure [3] - The A-share market experienced an overall upward trend, supported by innovations in AI and new energy sectors, which boosted market confidence [3] Strategy Performance - Among various strategies, the stock strategy led in returns, with 90.19% of 6,298 products achieving positive returns and an average return rate of 29.99% [3] - Quantitative long strategies showed remarkable performance, with a positive return rate of 95.81% among 1,360 products and an average return rate of 39.51% [4] - Multi-asset strategies achieved a positive return rate of 90.61% among 1,321 funds, with an average return rate of 22.06%, demonstrating strong risk management capabilities [4] Specific Strategy Insights - Combination funds, which diversify investments across different strategies and managers, achieved a positive return rate of 96.19% among 315 funds, catering to conservative investors [4] - Bond strategies maintained stable performance, with 89.93% of 745 bond products achieving positive returns, serving as a reliable asset allocation choice for low-risk investors [5]

机构人士指出，今年存款到期后的去向猜想：部分在2024年以前配置的中长定期存款，在配置初仍享受相对较高的定存利率，在2026年逐步到期后或面临更 大的收益落差，其寻求更高收益资产或出表投资的意愿可能更为强烈，可能会成为演绎存款重配置逻辑的主要资金，此逻辑下估算2026年到期的2年以上存 款规模或在40万亿以上。 少部分风险偏好较高的储蓄资金或就此流入权益市场或通过配置含权产品追求更高收益，但短期比例并不会太高，而长期持续性则仍有待观察。 预计2026年银行理财与保险仍能维持较为可观的规模增长，全年理财规模有望增长至35万亿元以上，保险资金规模有望突破40万亿元。但低利率环境下机构 管理人资产端也需进行相应调整，加大固收+、含权、多资产策略布局、加大产品超额收益优势尤为关键。 存款去向一：大部分仍以储蓄为主体，但由期限长及短、机构由大至小 广义居民储蓄体量虽然庞大，投资行为受到金融知识、收入预期、宏观环境感知的多方面影响，整体风险偏好的抬升仍较为缓慢，大部分到期资金或继续以 储蓄为主体，但由期限长及短、机构由大至小。 存款去向二：部分资金向低风险资管迁徙，短钱入理财，长钱进保险 （1）银行理财、保险资金作为稳健 ...

Core Insights - In 2025, the private securities product registration surged, with a total of 12,645 products registered, marking a 99.54% increase from 6,337 in 2024 [2] - Equity strategies remain the preferred choice for private equity firms, with 8,328 equity strategy products registered, accounting for 65.86% of all registered products, indicating strong investor enthusiasm for equity assets [2] Group 1: Strategy Performance - Multi-asset strategies and futures/derivatives strategies ranked second and third in registration numbers, with 1,806 and 1,274 products respectively, representing 14.28% and 10.08% of the total [4] - Bond strategies and combination funds had 492 and 512 products registered, making up 3.89% and 4.05% respectively, contributing to a diversified strategy landscape [4] Group 2: Quantitative Products - Quantitative products showed remarkable growth, with 5,617 products registered in 2025, a 114.31% increase from 2,621 in 2024, and accounting for 44.42% of total registrations [4][5] - Within quantitative equity strategies, the quantitative long strategy was the most prominent, with 2,746 products registered, representing 48.89% of the total quantitative products [5] Group 3: Market Trends - The private equity product registration exhibited a clear concentration trend, with 29 private equity firms registering at least 50 products, of which 26 were billion-yuan firms, indicating their dominance in the market [7] - Quantitative investment has become a strategic focus for leading firms, with 24 out of 29 firms employing quantitative strategies, highlighting the market's increasing recognition of quantitative approaches [8] Group 4: Future Outlook - The private securities industry is expected to continue its steady growth, driven by deepening capital market reforms and ongoing advancements in strategy innovation and risk management [11] - The industry is likely to evolve towards higher quality development, offering investors a more diverse range of asset allocation options as market ecosystems improve [11]

Core Insights - In 2025, domestic private equity securities investment products delivered impressive results, with 8,915 out of 9,934 products achieving positive returns, resulting in a positive return rate of 89.74% and an overall average return rate of 25.68% [1] Group 1: Performance Overview - The average return median for private equity securities products was recorded at 18.78%, indicating a strong overall profitability level [1] - The outstanding performance is attributed to three core factors: macro environment, funding conditions, and investment strategies [2] Group 2: Contributing Factors - The macro environment positively influenced market trends, with global funds shifting towards non-USD assets and breakthroughs in domestic sectors like AI and renewable energy, leading to a bullish A-share market [2] - The funding environment provided robust support, with steady inflows of medium to long-term capital and a trend of household savings migrating to capital markets, significantly enhancing market liquidity [2] - Investment strategies were well-aligned with market structures, allowing various strategies to effectively capture different asset appreciation opportunities [2] Group 3: Strategy Performance - Among different investment strategies, the stock strategy emerged as the annual return champion, with 90.19% of 6,298 products achieving positive returns and an average return rate of 29.99% [3] - Within the stock strategy, the quantitative long strategy showed exceptional performance, with a positive return rate of 95.81% among 1,360 products and an average return rate of 39.51% [3] - The multi-asset strategy achieved a positive return rate of 90.61% among 1,321 funds, with an average return rate of 22.06%, demonstrating strong risk control capabilities [3] - The combination fund strategy was the most stable, with a positive return rate of 96.19% among 315 funds, highlighting its effective diversification [3]