1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The alloy market is experiencing a tug - of - war between market sentiment and fundamentals, leading to an oscillating trend in alloy prices. The "anti - involution" has disrupted market sentiment, while on the fundamental side, the iron - water output has contracted, and alloy demand may weaken. If the supply of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon continues to expand, the alloy prices may face pressure after the subsiding of the market sentiment. [3][5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Market Conditions - This week, the alloy prices showed an oscillating trend. On Wednesday, the silicon - iron price was further boosted by the "anti - involution" sentiment. The weak employment data in the US has increased market expectations for interest - rate cuts. The iron - water output has decreased, and alloy demand may decline due to factors such as the expected September military parade. [5] - The silicon - iron 2509 contract closed at 5,772 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton week - on - week, with 1,444,373 lots traded and 119,038 lots held (a decrease of 36,059 lots week - on - week). The manganese - silicon 2509 contract closed at 6,046 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan/ton week - on - week, with 1,547,336 lots traded and 227,914 lots held (a decrease of 43,349 lots week - on - week). [8] - The national silicon - iron spot prices were weak, with the 75B silicon - iron main - producing area quotes ranging from 5350 - 5500 yuan/ton, down 50 - 150 yuan/ton week - on - week. The national silicon - manganese spot quotes were in the range of 5700 - 6000 yuan/ton, with price fluctuations of 10 - 100 yuan/ton. [9] 3.2 Silicon - Iron Fundamental Data - **Supply**: The weekly silicon - iron output was 10.91 tons, a 4.3% week - on - week increase. The weekly开工率 was 34.32%, up 0.56 percentage points week - on - week. The increase in production was mainly contributed by Inner Mongolia and Gansu. [20][21] - **Demand**: In the steel - making demand, the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.09%, down 0.15 percentage points week - on - week, and the daily average iron - water output was 240.32 tons, down 0.39 tons week - on - week. In non - steel demand, the stainless - steel crude - steel output in June was 287.11 tons, down 14.59 tons month - on - month, and the July production schedule was expected to decline. The total metal - magnesium output in July was 6.86 tons, down 0.5% month - on - month. The silicon - iron export volume in June was 3.47 tons, down 3.96% month - on - month. [31][37] - **Inventory**: As of August 8, the inventory of 60 silicon - iron sample enterprises was 71,770 tons, up 6,180 tons week - on - week. The silicon - iron warehouse - receipt quantity was 19,646 lots, down 2396 lots week - on - week, equivalent to a de - stocking of 11,980 tons. The average available days of steel - mill silicon - iron inventory in July was 14.25 days, down 1.13 days. [42] - **Profit**: The weekly silicon - iron futures profit was 465 yuan, a 24% week - on - week increase, and the spot profit was 93 yuan, a 61.73% week - on - week decrease. [4] 3.3 Manganese - Silicon Fundamental Data - **Supply**: The weekly manganese - silicon output was 19.58 tons, a 2.6% week - on - week increase. The weekly开工率 was 43.43%, up 1.25 percentage points week - on - week. Inner Mongolia's production was at a historical high. [55] - **Raw Materials**: Overseas manganese - ore enterprises have raised their quotes, and the port prices of various manganese - ore varieties in Tianjin Port have slightly increased. The global manganese - ore departure volume has decreased, while the recent arrival volume at ports has increased. [63][67] - **Demand**: In the steel - making demand, the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.09%, down 0.15 percentage points week - on - week, and the daily average iron - water output was 240.32 tons, down 0.39 tons week - on - week. The weekly output of rebar increased by 10.12 tons, supporting the overall demand for manganese - silicon. [78] - **Inventory**: As of August 8, the inventory of 63 manganese - silicon sample enterprises was 161,500 tons, down 2,500 tons week - on - week. The manganese - silicon warehouse - receipt quantity was 76045 lots, down 1809 lots week - on - week, equivalent to a de - stocking of 9,045 tons. The average available days of steel - mill manganese - silicon inventory in July was 14.24 days, down 1.25 days. [83][87] - **Profit**: The weekly manganese - silicon futures profit was 229.42 yuan, a 12.21% week - on - week increase, and the spot profit was - 16.58 yuan, a 55.84% week - on - week increase. [4]

Group 1 - The commodity market saw most prices increase, with coking coal rising over 6% and silicon iron over 4% on August 6 [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1432.07 points, up 5.2 points or 0.36% from the previous trading day [1] - Coking coal's main contract rose for the third consecutive trading day, driven by supply-side production cuts and policy changes [2][3] Group 2 - Silicon iron's main contract experienced a strong support, rising over 6% during trading, with a final increase of 4.27% [3] - The increase in silicon iron demand was supported by a rise in bidding quantities from major steel companies [3] - Despite the overall strong market, some commodities like live pigs and caustic soda showed slight declines, indicating potential supply-demand weaknesses [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the recent bidding prices for silicon iron have shown slight increases across various steel mills, suggesting a potential stabilization in the market [1][2] - Fujian steel mill announced a silicon iron bidding price of 5550 CNY/ton, a slight increase of 20 CNY/ton from June [1] - A steel mill in North China set its silicon iron bidding price at 5600 CNY/ton, up by 100 CNY/ton from the previous round, with a procurement quantity of 4500 tons [1] Group 2 - The overall market sentiment is expected to improve moderately due to the recent bidding prices, although actual demand remains limited due to the traditional off-season [2] - The current mainstream quotation for silicon iron 75B is around 5300 CNY/ton, with cash-inclusive prices in regions like Henan, Hebei, Shandong, and Jiangsu ranging from 5465 to 5779 CNY/ton [2] - The SF2509 futures contract exhibited a wide fluctuation today, closing at 5494 points, indicating mixed market sentiment with price movements near short-term averages [3] Group 3 - The analysis suggests that the silicon iron market may maintain a stable trend in the short term, with limited potential for significant price adjustments [6] - Industry confidence appears to be somewhat cautious due to ongoing reports of steel mill production cuts and the deepening traditional demand off-season [6] - Close monitoring of supply-demand dynamics, raw material price trends, and futures performance is recommended for future market outlooks [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating with an upward bias [1] - Iron Ore: Oscillating [1] - Coking Coal: Oscillating with an upward bias [1] - Coke: Oscillating with an upward bias [1] - Manganese Silicon: Oscillating [3] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures market continued its narrow - range oscillation. Production decreased, inventory slightly accumulated, and apparent demand declined. With the expectation of crude steel production cuts, the short - term futures market is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [1] - Iron Ore: The futures price rose slightly. After the end - of - quarter rush, global shipments decreased, and iron - making water production is expected to decline further. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [1] - Coking Coal: The futures price rose. Supply is gradually recovering, and demand remains stable. With some market participants having policy expectations, the short - term futures market is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [1] - Coke: The futures price rose. Coking enterprises' production is at a loss, and inventory has decreased. With steel prices oscillating upward and market sentiment optimistic, the short - term futures market is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [1] - Manganese Silicon: The futures price oscillated upward. The market sentiment was boosted, and steel tenders started. The supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [3] - Ferrosilicon: The futures price oscillated upward. The market sentiment was boosted, and steel tenders started. Supply - demand has slightly improved, but the short - term price is expected to oscillate [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory Research Views - Steel: The closing price of rebar 2510 contract was 3063 yuan/ton, with an increase in positions. Spot prices were stable, and trading volume declined. National building materials production decreased by 14.27 tons to 416.01 tons, social inventory increased by 9.05 tons to 530 tons, factory inventory decreased by 2.51 tons to 316.13 tons, and apparent demand decreased by 24.46 tons to 409.47 tons. Shanxi steel mills received a notice of 10% - 30% crude steel production cuts [1] - Iron Ore: The closing price of the i2509 contract was 736.5 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan/ton or 0.3%. Port spot prices rose. After the end - of - quarter rush, global shipments decreased, and iron - making water production is expected to decline further [1] - Coking Coal: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 871.5 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton or 3.32%. Spot prices in some areas rose. Supply is gradually recovering, and demand remains stable [1] - Coke: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 1456 yuan/ton, up 31.5 yuan/ton or 2.21%. Port spot prices rose. Coking enterprises' production is at a loss, and inventory has decreased [1] - Manganese Silicon: The closing price of the main contract was 5718 yuan/ton, up 1.28%. The main contract positions decreased by 7292 to 37.06 million. Spot prices in some areas rose. Steel tenders started, with an increase in quantity and a decrease in the initial inquiry price [3] - Ferrosilicon: The closing price of the main contract was 5392 yuan/ton, up 0.75%. The main contract positions increased by 621 to 19.13 million. Spot prices in some areas changed. Steel tenders started, with an increase in quantity. Supply - demand has slightly improved [3] Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spreads: For example, the 10 - 1 spread of rebar was - 24.0, down 4.0; the 9 - 1 spread of iron ore was 26.5, up 0.5 [4] - Basis: For example, the basis of the 10 - contract of rebar was 97.0, up 10.0; the basis of the 09 - contract of iron ore was 31.0, down 1.3 [4] - Spot: For example, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3160.0, up 10.0; the spot price of PB powder was 725.0, up 2.0 [4] - Profit and Spread: For example, the rebar futures profit was 76.8, down 21.5; the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 127.0, down 1.0 [4] Chart Analysis - Main Contract Prices: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][8][10][11][12][15] - Main Contract Basis: There are charts showing the basis of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [17][18][21][23] - Inter - period Contract Spreads: There are charts showing the spreads of inter - period contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [25][27][29][32][34][35][38] - Inter - variety Contract Spreads: There are charts showing the spreads of inter - variety contracts such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, etc. [40][41][42][43] - Rebar Profit: There are charts showing the futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar [45][46][48][49] Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52] - Zhang Xiaojin: Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the futures industry [52] - Liu Xi: Black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis [52] - Zhang Chunjie: Black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [53]