Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that there is a game between bullish and bearish sentiments in the silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy markets, leading to wide - range fluctuations in the futures prices. The profit has been restored due to the increase in spot prices and the oscillation in futures prices. However, the supply side shows different trends, and the upper space of the futures prices is under pressure [3][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Overall Market Situation - This week, alloy prices fluctuated widely, with the price center of manganese ferroalloy slightly rising. The profit was restored due to the increase in spot prices and the oscillation in futures prices. The supply side showed new start - up and复产 phenomena, and the willingness of factories to hedge was strong, which might put pressure on the futures prices [5]. - In terms of macro - factors, China proposed to implement more proactive and effective macro - policies, and the Central Economic Work Conference released many signals for stable growth. There were no significant overseas macro - factors [5]. - Microscopically, the molten iron output increased month - on - month, and the demand for raw materials was slowly recovering. The fundamental contradictions of manganese ferroalloy continued to accumulate, and the previously shut - down silicon ferroalloy factories resumed production [5]. 2. Futures Market - The silicon ferroalloy 2603 contract fluctuated widely this week, closing at 5,672 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change. The trading volume was 776,386 lots, and the open interest was 218,692 lots, a decrease of 27,548 lots month - on - month [8]. - The manganese ferroalloy 2603 contract also fluctuated widely this week, closing at 5,920 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton month - on - month. The trading volume was 700,274 lots, and the open interest was 267,767 lots, an increase of 4,188 lots month - on - month [8]. 3. Spot Market - The spot prices of silicon ferroalloy in major regions of the country oscillated and increased this week. The aggregated quotation of 75B silicon ferroalloy in the main production areas was 5,220 - 5,320 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 20 - 80 yuan/ton [9]. - The aggregated quotation range of silicon - manganese alloy in major regions of the country was 5,520 - 5,870 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of 10 - 80 yuan/ton. For example, the price of 6517 - type silicon - manganese alloy in Inner Mongolia was 5,650 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 60 yuan/ton) [9]. 4. Manganese Ferroalloy Fundamental Data Supply - This week, the output of manganese ferroalloy was 19.37 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.12 tons (a change rate of + 0.6%). The weekly operating rate was 36.89%, an increase of 0.11 percentage points month - on - month [12]. - Inner Mongolia made the main contribution to the output increase [13]. Demand - A new round of steel procurement is about to start, and steel mills may start the inventory replenishment process [18]. - From the performance of downstream steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate and the actual molten iron output rebounded slightly. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, the blast furnace operating rate this week was 85.26%, a month - on - month increase of 0.32 percentage points; the daily average molten iron output was 227.43 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.85 tons, which provided weak support for the demand of manganese ferroalloy [20]. Inventory - The inventory of 63 manganese ferroalloy sample enterprises was 393,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,500 tons. The number of manganese ferroalloy warehouse receipts was 23,518, a month - on - month increase of 241, equivalent to an increase of 1,205 tons, and the converted inventory was 117,590 tons [27]. - In December, the average available days of manganese ferroalloy inventory in steel mills was 15.52 days (- 0.32 days), with different trends in different regions [27]. Raw Materials - The global manganese ore departure volume increased month - on - month, and the short - term supply and demand of manganese ore were in a weak balance. The departure volume from South Africa, Australia, and Gabon increased, while that from Ghana decreased [31]. - The arrival and clearance of manganese ore at ports decreased, but the supply and demand might still maintain a relative balance [38]. - Overseas mining enterprises raised their quotations, and the port prices were closely related to the high clearance demand. The port quotations of various manganese ore varieties in Tianjin Port were firm [44][45]. Profit - The cost center gradually moved up with the increase in ore prices, the futures prices were strong, and the profit of manganese ferroalloy increased with the futures prices [47]. 5. Silicon Ferroalloy Fundamental Data Supply - This week, the output of silicon ferroalloy was 9.89 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.04 tons. The weekly operating rate was 29.54%, an increase of 0.04 percentage points month - on - month. Inner Mongolia made the main contribution to the output increase [51][52]. Demand - The steel procurement volume of a large factory in Hebei increased month - on - month, and the raw material inventory replenishment process might start [56]. - From the performance of downstream steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate and the actual molten iron output rebounded slightly. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, the blast furnace operating rate this week was 85.26%, a month - on - month increase of 0.32 percentage points; the daily average molten iron output was 227.43 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.85 tons [66]. - In terms of non - steel demand, the total output of magnesium metal in December was 8.59 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6% and a year - on - year increase of 17.9%. The output of stainless - steel crude steel in November was 304.86 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.59 tons. The export volume of silicon ferroalloy in November was 3.11 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.52% [66]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 silicon ferroalloy sample enterprises was 64,360 tons, a month - on - month increase of 750 tons. The number of silicon ferroalloy warehouse receipts was 11,491, a month - on - month decrease of 391, equivalent to a decrease of 1,955 tons, and the converted inventory was 57,455 tons [67][68]. - In December, the average available days of silicon ferroalloy inventory in steel mills was 15.41 days (- 0.39 days), with different trends in different regions [69]. Profit - The profit of silicon ferroalloy increased with the futures prices, and attention should be paid to the impact of profit restoration on the original operating rhythm of factories [76].

Report Title - The report is titled "Year-End Expectation Improvement, Alloy Continues to Rebound - Ferroalloy Weekly Report 20251229" [1] Report Analyst Information - The analyst is Peng Bohan from the Research and Consulting Department, with contact information: phone number 0371 - 58630083, email pengbh_qh@ccnew.com, professional certificate number F3076814, and investment consulting number Z0016415 [2] Core Views Silicon Iron - The main logic includes supply with a narrowing decline in production due to a rebound in the futures market; demand with a halt in the decline and a rebound in finished product output; inventory with a reduction in factory inventory; cost with a slight decline in semi - coke; and a weakening basis due to the futures market rebound. Recently, the continuous strength of precious metals and non - ferrous metals has improved the commodity sentiment. The alloy price has digested its weak supply - demand situation at a low level. With the New Year's steel procurement and winter storage expectations, it rebounded unexpectedly last week following the black series. It should be treated with a bullish view in the short term, but the industry is advised to conduct high - level hedging operations [4] Manganese Silicon - The main logic involves supply with a decline in production; demand with a narrowing decline in finished product output; inventory with continuous pressure on factory inventory; cost with firm manganese ore prices; and a repair of the futures discount. Similar to silicon iron, it also rebounded unexpectedly last week. It should be treated with a bullish view in the short term, and the industry is also advised to conduct high - level hedging operations [21] Summary by Related Catalogs Silicon Iron Supply - The weekly output of 136 independent silicon iron enterprises was 9.85 tons (down 1.3% week - on - week and 9.5% year - on - year). The output in November 2025 was 47.11 tons (down 6.78% month - on - month and 7.71% year - on - year) [6] Demand - The consumption of silicon iron in five major steel products was 1.8 tons (up 0.4% week - on - week and down 8.3% year - on - year). The weekly output of five major steel products was 796.8 tons (down 0.1% week - on - week and 5.5% year - on - year) [9] Inventory - The enterprise inventory was 6.36 tons (down 2.4% week - on - week and 17.3% year - on - year). The steel mill inventory days in December were 15.4 days (down 0.39 days month - on - month and up 0.39 days year - on - year) [11] Cost - The prices of raw materials such as electricity, semi - coke, anode, and oxidized iron scale were mostly stable, with a 3.75% decline in semi - coke in some regions. The silicon iron cost in Qinghai, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia decreased by about 0.5%, and the profit increased by about 9 - 13% [14] Futures - Spot Relationship - The number of silicon iron warehouse receipts was 11,882 (down 897 week - on - week and up 3,252 year - on - year). The basis of the 03 contract in Ningxia was - 72 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week [17] Contract Position and Precipitated Funds - The document provides historical data on total position, position of different contracts, and precipitated funds of silicon iron, but no specific latest data summaries are given other than the above - mentioned warehouse receipt and basis information [19] Manganese Silicon Supply - The weekly output of 121 independent silicon manganese enterprises was 19.25 tons (up 2.3% week - on - week and down 3.8% year - on - year). The national silicon manganese output in November was 84.88 tons (down 7.3% month - on - month and up 3.1% year - on - year) [24] Demand - The weekly consumption of silicon manganese was 11.26 tons (up 0.22% week - on - week and down 8% year - on - year). The weekly output of five major steel products was 796.8 tons (down 0.1% week - on - week and 5.5% year - on - year) [26] Inventory - The enterprise sample inventory was 38.6 tons (up 0.4% week - on - week and 200% year - on - year). The steel mill inventory days in December were 15.52 days (down 0.3 days month - on - month and 0.3 days year - on - year) [29] Cost - The prices of electricity were stable. The prices of some manganese ores increased slightly, and the price of chemical coke in Inner Mongolia decreased by 4.5%. The silicon manganese cost in different regions decreased by about 0.3 - 0.4%, and the profit increased by about 9 - 17% [36] Futures - Spot Relationship - The number of silicon manganese warehouse receipts was 23,277 (down 374 week - on - week and 39,257 year - on - year). The 03 basis in Inner Mongolia was 100 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week [31] Contract Position and Precipitated Funds - The document provides historical data on total position, position of different contracts, and precipitated funds of silicon manganese, but no specific latest data summaries are given other than the above - mentioned warehouse receipt and basis information [38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The demand shows weak support, and the futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese fluctuate within a narrow range. The price increase may face pressure due to the weak short - term demand before the holiday and the new start and复产 on the supply side [3][5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Market Situation - This week, the alloy prices fluctuated within a narrow range with a slight upward shift in the price center, influenced by both macro - sentiment and weak and stable demand. The previous price increase on the futures market repaired the profit, leading to new starts and复产 on the supply side. Considering the weak short - term demand before the holiday, the upward potential of the futures prices may be limited [5]. - Macroscopically, the Central Economic Work Conference in China has further clarified the direction and tasks for next year's economic work, releasing many signals for stable growth in traditional areas and showing an attitude of policy attention towards prices [5]. - Microscopically, the change in hot metal production is small, providing weak support for raw material demand. The fundamental contradictions of silicomanganese continue to accumulate, and the previous shutdown factories of ferrosilicon have复产 due to the futures price repair [5]. 3.2 Futures Market - This week, the ferrosilicon 2603 contract fluctuated widely, closing at 5,672 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 32 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1,118,256 lots and an open interest of 246,240 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 10,661 lots [8]. - The silicomanganese 2603 contract also fluctuated widely, closing at 5,840 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 32 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 764,909 lots and an open interest of 263,579 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 15,721 lots [8]. 3.3 Spot Market - The spot prices of ferrosilicon in major regions in China fluctuated upward this week. The aggregated price of FeSi75 - B in major production areas was 5200 - 5270 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of 20 - 50 yuan/ton [9]. - The aggregated spot price of silicomanganese in major regions ranged from 5520 to 5850 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of - 70 to 80 yuan/ton. For example, the price of FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5590 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton), in Guangxi was 5700 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 80 yuan/ton), and in Ningxia was 5520 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton) [9]. 3.4 Basis and Spread - The basis of the alloys has shrunk, the spread between the main contracts has fluctuated, and there is a game of warehouse receipts approaching the delivery month [12]. 3.5 Silicomanganese Fundamental Data 3.5.1 Supply - The weekly output of silicomanganese this week was 19.26 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.43 tons, with a week - on - week change rate of + 2.3%. The weekly operating rate was 36.78%, an increase of 1.17 percentage points from last week [17]. 3.5.2 Demand - In terms of steelmaking demand, the start - up and actual hot metal production of downstream steel mills are relatively stable. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, the blast furnace operating rate this week was 84.94%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 percentage points, and the daily average hot metal production was 226.58 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 tons. The output of rebar increased by 2.71 tons this week, providing weak support for the demand of silicomanganese [27]. - In the steel procurement market, many steel enterprises have completed their procurement of silicomanganese, with prices fluctuating and procurement volumes varying [24]. 3.5.3 Inventory - As of December 26, the number of silicomanganese warehouse receipts was 23,277, a week - on - week decrease of 374, equivalent to a reduction of 1,870 tons, and the current converted inventory was 116,385 tons [33]. - In December, the average available days of silicomanganese inventory in steel mills was 15.52 days (- 0.32 days), with 13.79 days in the northern region (- 0.55 days), 17.52 days in the eastern region (+ 0.85 days), and 16.27 days in the southern region (- 1.91 days) [34]. - As of December 26, the inventory of 63 silicomanganese sample enterprises in China was 386,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,500 tons [36]. 3.5.4 Raw Materials - The global manganese ore outbound volume decreased slightly week - on - week, with different changes in different regions. The ore arrival volume at major ports decreased, and the ore dredging volume also decreased slightly [40][47]. - Overseas manganese ore enterprises have raised their quotes. For example, South32's January 2026 offer for South African semi - carbonate lumps remained the same as last month, while the offer for Australian lumps increased by 0.3 dollars/ton - degree compared to December. The port prices of manganese ore have risen, which is closely related to the high dredging demand [52]. 3.5.5 Profit - The cost center of silicomanganese has slightly decreased, and the profit has recovered with the futures price [55]. 3.6 Ferrosilicon Fundamental Data 3.6.1 Supply - The weekly output of ferrosilicon this week was 9.85 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.13 tons, and the weekly operating rate was 29.5%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.3 percentage points [59]. 3.6.2 Demand - In terms of steelmaking demand, the start - up and actual hot metal production of downstream steel mills are relatively stable. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, the blast furnace operating rate this week was 84.94%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01 percentage points, and the daily average hot metal production was 226.58 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 tons [76]. - In the non - steel demand aspect, the total output of magnesium metal in November was 8.53 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.5% and a year - on - year increase of 11.5%. The output of stainless steel crude steel in November was 304.86 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.59 tons. The planned production of stainless steel crude steel in December decreased by 8.2% month - on - month [76]. - The export volume of ferrosilicon in November was 3.11 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.52% [76]. 3.6.3 Inventory - As of December 26, the inventory of 60 ferrosilicon sample enterprises in China was 63,610 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,550 tons [78]. - As of December 26, the number of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts was 11,882, a week - on - week decrease of 897, equivalent to a reduction of 4,485 tons, and the current converted inventory was 59,410 tons [78]. - In December, the average available days of ferrosilicon inventory in steel mills was 15.41 days (- 0.39 days), with 13.76 days in the northern region (- 0.1 days), 17.05 days in the eastern region (+ 1 day), and 16.64 days in the southern region (- 3.81 days) [78]. 3.6.4 Profit - The profit of ferrosilicon has recovered with the futures price, and attention should be paid to the impact of profit repair on the original operating rhythm of factories [89].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the silicon iron market is currently stable, with recent bidding prices holding steady and a cautious market sentiment prevailing due to a lack of significant news stimuli [1][2][6] - A new round of silicon iron bidding prices has been announced at 5700 yuan/ton in Central China, remaining unchanged from the previous round, with a procurement quantity of 200 tons [1] - In the North, major manufacturers have not yet finalized their silicon iron bidding prices, leading to a general wait-and-see atmosphere in the market, with actual transaction volumes needing improvement [2][6] Group 2 - The futures market for silicon iron showed a low open and a subsequent recovery, with the main contract closing at 5462 points, up 18 points from the previous day, indicating a potential technical rebound [3] - The trading volume in the futures market decreased by 16.9 million contracts to 245,000 contracts, while open interest increased by 3,413 contracts to 27,100 contracts, suggesting a mixed market sentiment [3] - The steel market is experiencing a decline in demand during the off-season, with steel mills increasing maintenance and production cuts, which is expected to impact the overall market performance [6] Group 3 - The consensus among key coking enterprises is to implement production cuts of no less than 30% to alleviate supply pressure and stabilize market prices, while also optimizing coal inventory structures to control costs [6] - The overall market is expected to face both opportunities and challenges, with potential demand release towards the end of the year, but adverse effects from weak coal prices and seasonal weather conditions may impact raw material demand [7] - The current market dynamics suggest a stalemate in pricing, with limited room for significant adjustments in the near term [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Steel: Low-level range operation [3] - Coke: First round of price cut implemented, range operation [8] - Coking Coal: Supply still has disruptions, maintain range operation [12] - Ferroalloys: Limited supply-demand contradictions, maintain range operation [15] Core Views of the Report - Steel: The fundamentals of rebar are weakly balanced, with slightly decreased production and apparent demand, and decreased inventory. The production of hot-rolled coils has increased slightly, the apparent demand has decreased slightly, and the inventory is at the highest level in the same period in recent years. Both are expected to fluctuate in the short term [4][5] - Iron Ore: Iron water production is expected to decrease further, the fundamentals have weakened, and a cautious bearish view is taken [6][7] - Coke: After the fourth round of price increase, the profits of coke enterprises have improved, and inventories have accumulated. Steel mills have initiated the first round of price cuts. It is expected to follow coking coal in the short term [10] - Coking Coal: Domestic raw coal production has decreased, supply disruptions exist, and the market transaction is light. It is expected to repair the basis and maintain range operation [13] - Manganese Silicon: The supply in the production area is decreasing, the demand has improved marginally, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. The upward trend lacks sustainability [16][17] - Ferrosilicon: The industry's losses have deepened, but production is relatively stable, demand has increased slightly, and inventory has decreased for two consecutive weeks. The upward trend lacks sustainability [16][17] Summary by Variety Rebar - **Variety View**: Production and apparent demand decreased slightly, inventory decreased, and the fundamentals are weakly balanced. Iron water production decreased, and steel mills' willingness to reduce production is low [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Short-term lack of strong driving force, may fluctuate in the range [5] Hot-rolled Coil - **Variety View**: Production increased slightly, apparent demand decreased slightly, and inventory is at the highest level in the same period in recent years [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Iron water production decreased slightly, steel mills' willingness to reduce production is not strong, and it may fluctuate in the range in the short term [5] Iron Ore - **Variety View**: Iron water production is expected to decrease further, steel mills are destocking, ports are increasing inventory, and the fundamentals have weakened [6] - **Operation Suggestion**: A cautious bearish view is taken, and long positions should avoid the edge for the time being [7] Coke - **Variety View**: After the fourth round of price increase, the profits of coke enterprises have improved, inventories have accumulated, and steel mills have initiated the first round of price cuts. Iron water production has decreased, and most steel mills have maintenance plans [10] - **Operation Suggestion**: A cautious bearish view is taken [11] Coking Coal - **Variety View**: Domestic raw coal production has decreased, supply disruptions exist, the market transaction is light, and downstream restocking needs to be concerned [13] - **Operation Suggestion**: A cautious bearish view is taken [14] Manganese Silicon - **Variety View**: The supply in the production area is decreasing, the demand has improved marginally, and the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. The new round of steel procurement has not started yet [16] - **Operation Suggestion**: The short-term cost has certain support, but the upward trend lacks sustainability. It is recommended to be cautious [17] Ferrosilicon - **Variety View**: The industry's losses have deepened, but production is relatively stable, demand has increased slightly, and inventory has decreased for two consecutive weeks. The new round of steel procurement has not started yet [16] - **Operation Suggestion**: The supply-demand contradiction is not significant, but the upward trend lacks sustainability. It is expected to operate in the range [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - For silicon manganese, the supply - demand contradiction is yet to accumulate, the cost side strongly supports the price, but new warehouse receipts in the short term will suppress the upward price limit. It is recommended to participate mainly through short - term long positions, with the main contract reference range being [5750, 6000] [4][5] - For silicon iron, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, the warehouse receipts are on a high - level downward trend but still high in absolute value, suppressing the upward price limit. It is expected to move within a range following coal prices in the short term, and it is recommended to participate mainly through short - term long positions, with the main contract reference range being [5550, 5700] [49] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Silicon Manganese Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The weekly output has returned to the pre - parade level, and the operating rate has increased by 0.93%. Northern production areas are relatively stable, while some factories in southern Guangxi and Guizhou have resumed production. Yunnan's operating rate has remained at around 95% for three consecutive weeks, and the daily output is at the highest level in the same period of the past five years. As of September 12, the national silicon manganese output was 214,130 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,295 tons; the operating rate was 47.38%, a week - on - week increase of 0.93% [4][8] - Demand: The molten iron output has returned to the pre - parade level, but the rebar output has decreased week - on - week, dragging down the demand for silicon manganese. As of September 12, the weekly demand for silicon manganese was 122,314 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,354 tons. The new round of steel procurement has started, and the first - round inquiry price of a landmark steel mill is 5,800 yuan/ton [4][13] Inventory Situation - The total enterprise inventory is 166,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6,300 tons; the number of warehouse receipts is 61,400, a decrease of 1,400 from last Friday. As of September 12, the total valid forecasts are 2,994, an increase of 1,995 from the previous day. The total delivery inventory (including forecasts) is 322,200 tons, and the inventory has stopped decreasing and started to increase [4] Cost and Profit - Manganese ore prices at ports have rebounded slightly this week. The total shipment volume of the three major countries is 949,300 tons, basically the same as the previous period. The arrival volume is 359,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 231,900 tons, with the reduction mainly from South Africa. The electricity price in Ningxia has increased by 0.02 yuan/kWh, and the current comprehensive electricity price of manufacturers is 0.4 yuan/kWh, while the electricity prices in other production areas remain stable [4] Market Price - As of September 12, the market price of 6517 in Inner Mongolia is 5,650 (- 30) yuan/ton; in Ningxia, it is 5,600 (+ 50) yuan/ton; in Guangxi, it is 5,650 (- 30) yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it is 5,850 (+ 100) yuan/ton [7] River Steel Silicon Manganese Tendering - The inquiry price for September silicon manganese tendering by River Steel is 5,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton compared to August. The procurement quantity is 17,000 tons, an increase of 900 tons compared to August and 6,500 tons compared to the same period last year [16] Silicon Iron Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: This week, the national output and operating rate of silicon iron have decreased week - on - week. Inner Mongolia and Ningxia have stable operations, while Shaanxi has slightly reduced production. As of September 12, the weekly output of silicon iron is 113,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20,000 tons; the operating rate is 34.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5% [49][54] - Demand: This week, the demand for silicon iron converted from the five major steel products is 19,737 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 339 tons. The new round of steel procurement has started, and the inquiry price for September silicon iron tendering by a landmark steel mill is 5,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 330 yuan/ton compared to August. The procurement quantity has increased by 317 tons compared to August. In terms of non - steel demand, the magnesium ingot output in August is basically the same as that in July, with a year - on - year decrease of 3.9% [49] Inventory Situation - The total enterprise inventory is 69,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,400 tons; the number of warehouse receipts is 16,500, a decrease of 1,800 from last Friday. The total delivery inventory (including forecasts) is 85,300 tons, a decrease of 12,200 tons from last Friday [49] Cost and Profit - Recently, the semi - coke market has been stable. The current small - material quotation in Fugu area is 640 - 690 yuan/ton. The electricity prices in Ningxia and Qinghai have both increased. In the short term, the cost side of silicon iron has strong support [49] Market Price - The spot prices in the main production areas have increased by 30 - 50 yuan/ton compared to last week [52] River Steel Silicon Iron Tendering - The inquiry price for September silicon iron tendering by River Steel is 5,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 330 yuan/ton compared to August. The procurement quantity is 3,151 tons, an increase of 317 tons compared to August and 650 tons compared to the same period last year [60]

Report Summary Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bullish**: Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Coke, Coking Coal, Manganese Silicon [1] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon [1] Core Views - **Rebar**: With good blast furnace profits and improved electric furnace profits, steel mills are highly motivated to produce, leading to high molten iron output. However, demand remains weak, and the supply-demand balance is expected to loosen. Despite recent downward trends, policy disturbances and the Fed's loose signals may trigger a short-term rebound [1][4][5]. - **Hot Rolled Coil**: Production, apparent demand, and inventory have slightly increased, with a relatively stable fundamental situation. The supply-demand balance is expected to loosen, but after continuous decline, the short-term downside space may be limited, and a short-term rebound is possible [1][4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: Molten iron output has increased, environmental protection restrictions are less than expected, steel mills have completed restocking, and port inventories are accumulating. The fundamental situation is moderately bearish, and the ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1][6]. - **Coke**: Spot prices have started the eighth round of increases, and coke enterprise profits have improved. The supply-demand balance is relatively stable, and short-term rebound is expected due to strengthened safety supervision expectations [1][9]. - **Coking Coal**: Domestic production is flat compared to the previous period, and Mongolian coal imports have increased significantly. Although the futures price has a premium over the warehouse receipt cost and there is downward correction space in the medium term, short-term rebound is possible due to strengthened safety supervision expectations [1][13]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Supply-demand balance is loosening, production is increasing, and the steel mill restocking is completed. Manganese ore shipments have decreased, but inventory is stable. The cost side provides some support, and short-term rebound may occur under macro - sentiment influence, while the medium - term strategy is to sell on rallies [1][17][18]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Production is increasing, demand is declining, and inventory pressure is high. It may follow the market for a weak short - term rebound, and it is advisable to wait and see [1][17][18]. Detailed Summaries Rebar - **Price**: Futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 10) are 3224, 3261, and 3138 respectively, with price increases of 29, 31, and 19 [2]. - **Supply - Demand**: High production enthusiasm of steel mills, weak demand, and expected loosening of supply - demand balance [1][4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term rebound possible due to policy and Fed signals [1][5]. Hot Rolled Coil - **Price**: Futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 10) are 3377, 3388, and 3389 respectively, with price increases of 25, 30, and 28 [2]. - **Supply - Demand**: Slightly increased production, apparent demand, and inventory, with a loosening supply - demand trend [1][4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term rebound possible after continuous decline [1][5]. Iron Ore - **Price**: Not provided in the text. - **Supply - Demand**: Increased molten iron output, less - than - expected environmental protection restrictions, completed restocking of steel mills, and accumulating port inventories [1][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bearish [1][6]. Coke - **Price**: Futures prices for 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts are 1736.0, 1825.5, and 1652.0 respectively, with price increases of 57.5, 56.0, and 25.0 [8]. - **Supply - Demand**: Relatively stable supply - demand balance, with stable production and inventory [1][9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish, short - term rebound expected [1][9][10]. Coking Coal - **Price**: Futures prices for 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts are 1215.5, 1261.5, and 1061.5 respectively, with price increases of 53.5, 52.0, and 13.5 [12]. - **Supply - Demand**: Flat domestic production, increased Mongolian coal imports, and stable raw material demand [1][13]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish, short - term rebound expected [1][13][14]. Manganese Silicon - **Price**: Futures prices for 01, 05, and 09 contracts are 5898, 5946, and 5798 respectively, with price increases of 66, 65, and 56 [16]. - **Supply - Demand**: Loosening supply - demand balance, increased production, and completed steel mill restocking [1][17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term rebound possible under macro - sentiment influence, medium - term sell - on - rallies strategy [1][17][18]. Ferrosilicon - **Price**: Futures prices for 01, 05, and 09 contracts are 5662, 5790, and 5494 respectively, with price increases of 46, 44, and 48 [16]. - **Supply - Demand**: Increasing production, declining demand, and high inventory pressure [1][17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bearish, short - term weak rebound, advisable to wait and see [1][17][18].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Silicon Manganese (SM)**: The fundamental contradictions of SM are relatively limited. With the new round of demand release, short - term demand resilience remains. Total inventory shows a downward trend but the absolute level is still high. The price will fluctuate with market sentiment. Short - term cost has strong support, and the downward space is relatively limited. It is advisable to operate within the range or stay on the sidelines and avoid excessive short - selling. The reference range for the main contract is [5884, 6210] [4][5]. - **Silicon Iron (SF)**: The fundamentals are showing signs of weakening. Alloy factory inventories are continuously accumulating and at a high level for the same period. Delivery inventory has stopped increasing and started to decline, but the absolute level is still high. There is no obvious short - term driver, and the price will follow market sentiment. In the medium term, the fundamentals will gradually return to a loose state, and the price may be under pressure. The reference range for the main contract is [5584, 5960] [53][54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Silicon Manganese - **Supply**: National output has increased for twelve consecutive weeks. Northern production areas have stable operations, with a slight resumption in southern Guizhou and Yunnan maintaining an over 85% operating rate. As of August 8, the national SM output was 195,825 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5,005 tons, and the operating rate was 43.43%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25% [4][11][13]. - **Demand**: Weekly hot metal production was 2.4032 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.39 million tons, while rebar production and apparent demand increased week - on - week. The new round of steel procurement has started, and the procurement volume and price of a leading steel mill have both increased, providing rigid support for alloy demand. As of August 8, the weekly SM demand was 125,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,485 tons [4][14][18]. - **Inventory**: The total enterprise inventory was 161,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,500 tons; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1,809 to 76,045; the delivery inventory (including forecasts) continued to decline to 384,500 tons, with a slower decline rate [4][23]. - **Cost and Profit**: Port manganese ore prices were strong. Multiple foreign mines' September quotes increased slightly, leading to strong price - holding sentiment among manganese ore merchants. The supply of manganese ore decreased significantly, mainly from South Africa and Australia. The arrival volume of South African manganese ore was 259,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41.8%. The actual arrival volumes of Gabon and Australian ores were still low. The port inventory is expected to remain low in the short term. Some regions have started the sixth round of coke price increases, but the chemical coke price in production areas has not yet followed [4]. - **Market Price**: As of August 7, the closing price of the SM main contract was 6,064 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Jiangsu was 6,000 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 64 yuan/ton. The spot prices in main production areas increased by 70 - 100 yuan/ton [7][8]. Silicon Iron - **Supply**: National output continued to increase this week, with the operating rate at a low level for the same period. Except for Inner Mongolia, the operating rates in other production areas were relatively stable. Inner Mongolia's production increased by 12.8% week - on - week, and the daily output was at a relatively high level for the same period. As of August 8, the weekly SF output was 109,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,700 tons, and the operating rate was 34.32%, a week - on - week increase of 0.56% [53][59]. - **Demand**: The demand for SF from five major steel products was 20,266.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 344.3 tons. In August, a new round of demand was released, and most steel mills' procurement volume and price increased. The inquiry price for a leading steel mill's August SF procurement was 5,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last month, and the procurement quantity was 2,835 tons, an increase of 135 tons from the previous round. Non - steel demand: the domestic magnesium market has been strong recently, and the magnesium ingot price in Fugu has risen to 17,000 yuan/ton [53][62][66]. - **Inventory**: The total enterprise inventory was 71,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6,200 tons; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2,396 to 19,646; the delivery inventory (including forecasts) was 107,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,900 tons [53][67]. - **Cost and Profit**: The semi - coke market was stable, with some enterprises slightly increasing prices. The cost line in production areas moved up slightly, and the spot profit declined compared to the previous period. The immediate costs in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia were 5,499 yuan/ton and 5,352 yuan/ton respectively; the production profits were - 49 yuan/ton and 48 yuan/ton respectively [53][69][71]. - **Market Price**: As of August 7, the closing price of the SF main contract was 5,834 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Jiangsu was 5,600 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 234 yuan/ton [57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The alloy market is experiencing a tug - of - war between market sentiment and fundamentals, leading to an oscillating trend in alloy prices. The "anti - involution" has disrupted market sentiment, while on the fundamental side, the iron - water output has contracted, and alloy demand may weaken. If the supply of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon continues to expand, the alloy prices may face pressure after the subsiding of the market sentiment. [3][5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Market Conditions - This week, the alloy prices showed an oscillating trend. On Wednesday, the silicon - iron price was further boosted by the "anti - involution" sentiment. The weak employment data in the US has increased market expectations for interest - rate cuts. The iron - water output has decreased, and alloy demand may decline due to factors such as the expected September military parade. [5] - The silicon - iron 2509 contract closed at 5,772 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton week - on - week, with 1,444,373 lots traded and 119,038 lots held (a decrease of 36,059 lots week - on - week). The manganese - silicon 2509 contract closed at 6,046 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan/ton week - on - week, with 1,547,336 lots traded and 227,914 lots held (a decrease of 43,349 lots week - on - week). [8] - The national silicon - iron spot prices were weak, with the 75B silicon - iron main - producing area quotes ranging from 5350 - 5500 yuan/ton, down 50 - 150 yuan/ton week - on - week. The national silicon - manganese spot quotes were in the range of 5700 - 6000 yuan/ton, with price fluctuations of 10 - 100 yuan/ton. [9] 3.2 Silicon - Iron Fundamental Data - **Supply**: The weekly silicon - iron output was 10.91 tons, a 4.3% week - on - week increase. The weekly开工率 was 34.32%, up 0.56 percentage points week - on - week. The increase in production was mainly contributed by Inner Mongolia and Gansu. [20][21] - **Demand**: In the steel - making demand, the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.09%, down 0.15 percentage points week - on - week, and the daily average iron - water output was 240.32 tons, down 0.39 tons week - on - week. In non - steel demand, the stainless - steel crude - steel output in June was 287.11 tons, down 14.59 tons month - on - month, and the July production schedule was expected to decline. The total metal - magnesium output in July was 6.86 tons, down 0.5% month - on - month. The silicon - iron export volume in June was 3.47 tons, down 3.96% month - on - month. [31][37] - **Inventory**: As of August 8, the inventory of 60 silicon - iron sample enterprises was 71,770 tons, up 6,180 tons week - on - week. The silicon - iron warehouse - receipt quantity was 19,646 lots, down 2396 lots week - on - week, equivalent to a de - stocking of 11,980 tons. The average available days of steel - mill silicon - iron inventory in July was 14.25 days, down 1.13 days. [42] - **Profit**: The weekly silicon - iron futures profit was 465 yuan, a 24% week - on - week increase, and the spot profit was 93 yuan, a 61.73% week - on - week decrease. [4] 3.3 Manganese - Silicon Fundamental Data - **Supply**: The weekly manganese - silicon output was 19.58 tons, a 2.6% week - on - week increase. The weekly开工率 was 43.43%, up 1.25 percentage points week - on - week. Inner Mongolia's production was at a historical high. [55] - **Raw Materials**: Overseas manganese - ore enterprises have raised their quotes, and the port prices of various manganese - ore varieties in Tianjin Port have slightly increased. The global manganese - ore departure volume has decreased, while the recent arrival volume at ports has increased. [63][67] - **Demand**: In the steel - making demand, the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.09%, down 0.15 percentage points week - on - week, and the daily average iron - water output was 240.32 tons, down 0.39 tons week - on - week. The weekly output of rebar increased by 10.12 tons, supporting the overall demand for manganese - silicon. [78] - **Inventory**: As of August 8, the inventory of 63 manganese - silicon sample enterprises was 161,500 tons, down 2,500 tons week - on - week. The manganese - silicon warehouse - receipt quantity was 76045 lots, down 1809 lots week - on - week, equivalent to a de - stocking of 9,045 tons. The average available days of steel - mill manganese - silicon inventory in July was 14.24 days, down 1.25 days. [83][87] - **Profit**: The weekly manganese - silicon futures profit was 229.42 yuan, a 12.21% week - on - week increase, and the spot profit was - 16.58 yuan, a 55.84% week - on - week increase. [4]

Group 1 - The commodity market saw most prices increase, with coking coal rising over 6% and silicon iron over 4% on August 6 [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1432.07 points, up 5.2 points or 0.36% from the previous trading day [1] - Coking coal's main contract rose for the third consecutive trading day, driven by supply-side production cuts and policy changes [2][3] Group 2 - Silicon iron's main contract experienced a strong support, rising over 6% during trading, with a final increase of 4.27% [3] - The increase in silicon iron demand was supported by a rise in bidding quantities from major steel companies [3] - Despite the overall strong market, some commodities like live pigs and caustic soda showed slight declines, indicating potential supply-demand weaknesses [4]