1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - For silicon manganese, the supply - demand contradiction is yet to accumulate, the cost side strongly supports the price, but new warehouse receipts in the short term will suppress the upward price limit. It is recommended to participate mainly through short - term long positions, with the main contract reference range being [5750, 6000] [4][5] - For silicon iron, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, the warehouse receipts are on a high - level downward trend but still high in absolute value, suppressing the upward price limit. It is expected to move within a range following coal prices in the short term, and it is recommended to participate mainly through short - term long positions, with the main contract reference range being [5550, 5700] [49] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Silicon Manganese Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The weekly output has returned to the pre - parade level, and the operating rate has increased by 0.93%. Northern production areas are relatively stable, while some factories in southern Guangxi and Guizhou have resumed production. Yunnan's operating rate has remained at around 95% for three consecutive weeks, and the daily output is at the highest level in the same period of the past five years. As of September 12, the national silicon manganese output was 214,130 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,295 tons; the operating rate was 47.38%, a week - on - week increase of 0.93% [4][8] - Demand: The molten iron output has returned to the pre - parade level, but the rebar output has decreased week - on - week, dragging down the demand for silicon manganese. As of September 12, the weekly demand for silicon manganese was 122,314 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,354 tons. The new round of steel procurement has started, and the first - round inquiry price of a landmark steel mill is 5,800 yuan/ton [4][13] Inventory Situation - The total enterprise inventory is 166,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6,300 tons; the number of warehouse receipts is 61,400, a decrease of 1,400 from last Friday. As of September 12, the total valid forecasts are 2,994, an increase of 1,995 from the previous day. The total delivery inventory (including forecasts) is 322,200 tons, and the inventory has stopped decreasing and started to increase [4] Cost and Profit - Manganese ore prices at ports have rebounded slightly this week. The total shipment volume of the three major countries is 949,300 tons, basically the same as the previous period. The arrival volume is 359,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 231,900 tons, with the reduction mainly from South Africa. The electricity price in Ningxia has increased by 0.02 yuan/kWh, and the current comprehensive electricity price of manufacturers is 0.4 yuan/kWh, while the electricity prices in other production areas remain stable [4] Market Price - As of September 12, the market price of 6517 in Inner Mongolia is 5,650 (- 30) yuan/ton; in Ningxia, it is 5,600 (+ 50) yuan/ton; in Guangxi, it is 5,650 (- 30) yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it is 5,850 (+ 100) yuan/ton [7] River Steel Silicon Manganese Tendering - The inquiry price for September silicon manganese tendering by River Steel is 5,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton compared to August. The procurement quantity is 17,000 tons, an increase of 900 tons compared to August and 6,500 tons compared to the same period last year [16] Silicon Iron Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: This week, the national output and operating rate of silicon iron have decreased week - on - week. Inner Mongolia and Ningxia have stable operations, while Shaanxi has slightly reduced production. As of September 12, the weekly output of silicon iron is 113,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20,000 tons; the operating rate is 34.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5% [49][54] - Demand: This week, the demand for silicon iron converted from the five major steel products is 19,737 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 339 tons. The new round of steel procurement has started, and the inquiry price for September silicon iron tendering by a landmark steel mill is 5,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 330 yuan/ton compared to August. The procurement quantity has increased by 317 tons compared to August. In terms of non - steel demand, the magnesium ingot output in August is basically the same as that in July, with a year - on - year decrease of 3.9% [49] Inventory Situation - The total enterprise inventory is 69,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,400 tons; the number of warehouse receipts is 16,500, a decrease of 1,800 from last Friday. The total delivery inventory (including forecasts) is 85,300 tons, a decrease of 12,200 tons from last Friday [49] Cost and Profit - Recently, the semi - coke market has been stable. The current small - material quotation in Fugu area is 640 - 690 yuan/ton. The electricity prices in Ningxia and Qinghai have both increased. In the short term, the cost side of silicon iron has strong support [49] Market Price - The spot prices in the main production areas have increased by 30 - 50 yuan/ton compared to last week [52] River Steel Silicon Iron Tendering - The inquiry price for September silicon iron tendering by River Steel is 5,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 330 yuan/ton compared to August. The procurement quantity is 3,151 tons, an increase of 317 tons compared to August and 650 tons compared to the same period last year [60]

Report Summary Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bullish**: Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Coke, Coking Coal, Manganese Silicon [1] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon [1] Core Views - **Rebar**: With good blast furnace profits and improved electric furnace profits, steel mills are highly motivated to produce, leading to high molten iron output. However, demand remains weak, and the supply-demand balance is expected to loosen. Despite recent downward trends, policy disturbances and the Fed's loose signals may trigger a short-term rebound [1][4][5]. - **Hot Rolled Coil**: Production, apparent demand, and inventory have slightly increased, with a relatively stable fundamental situation. The supply-demand balance is expected to loosen, but after continuous decline, the short-term downside space may be limited, and a short-term rebound is possible [1][4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: Molten iron output has increased, environmental protection restrictions are less than expected, steel mills have completed restocking, and port inventories are accumulating. The fundamental situation is moderately bearish, and the ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1][6]. - **Coke**: Spot prices have started the eighth round of increases, and coke enterprise profits have improved. The supply-demand balance is relatively stable, and short-term rebound is expected due to strengthened safety supervision expectations [1][9]. - **Coking Coal**: Domestic production is flat compared to the previous period, and Mongolian coal imports have increased significantly. Although the futures price has a premium over the warehouse receipt cost and there is downward correction space in the medium term, short-term rebound is possible due to strengthened safety supervision expectations [1][13]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Supply-demand balance is loosening, production is increasing, and the steel mill restocking is completed. Manganese ore shipments have decreased, but inventory is stable. The cost side provides some support, and short-term rebound may occur under macro - sentiment influence, while the medium - term strategy is to sell on rallies [1][17][18]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Production is increasing, demand is declining, and inventory pressure is high. It may follow the market for a weak short - term rebound, and it is advisable to wait and see [1][17][18]. Detailed Summaries Rebar - **Price**: Futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 10) are 3224, 3261, and 3138 respectively, with price increases of 29, 31, and 19 [2]. - **Supply - Demand**: High production enthusiasm of steel mills, weak demand, and expected loosening of supply - demand balance [1][4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term rebound possible due to policy and Fed signals [1][5]. Hot Rolled Coil - **Price**: Futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 10) are 3377, 3388, and 3389 respectively, with price increases of 25, 30, and 28 [2]. - **Supply - Demand**: Slightly increased production, apparent demand, and inventory, with a loosening supply - demand trend [1][4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term rebound possible after continuous decline [1][5]. Iron Ore - **Price**: Not provided in the text. - **Supply - Demand**: Increased molten iron output, less - than - expected environmental protection restrictions, completed restocking of steel mills, and accumulating port inventories [1][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bearish [1][6]. Coke - **Price**: Futures prices for 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts are 1736.0, 1825.5, and 1652.0 respectively, with price increases of 57.5, 56.0, and 25.0 [8]. - **Supply - Demand**: Relatively stable supply - demand balance, with stable production and inventory [1][9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish, short - term rebound expected [1][9][10]. Coking Coal - **Price**: Futures prices for 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts are 1215.5, 1261.5, and 1061.5 respectively, with price increases of 53.5, 52.0, and 13.5 [12]. - **Supply - Demand**: Flat domestic production, increased Mongolian coal imports, and stable raw material demand [1][13]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish, short - term rebound expected [1][13][14]. Manganese Silicon - **Price**: Futures prices for 01, 05, and 09 contracts are 5898, 5946, and 5798 respectively, with price increases of 66, 65, and 56 [16]. - **Supply - Demand**: Loosening supply - demand balance, increased production, and completed steel mill restocking [1][17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term rebound possible under macro - sentiment influence, medium - term sell - on - rallies strategy [1][17][18]. Ferrosilicon - **Price**: Futures prices for 01, 05, and 09 contracts are 5662, 5790, and 5494 respectively, with price increases of 46, 44, and 48 [16]. - **Supply - Demand**: Increasing production, declining demand, and high inventory pressure [1][17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bearish, short - term weak rebound, advisable to wait and see [1][17][18].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Silicon Manganese (SM)**: The fundamental contradictions of SM are relatively limited. With the new round of demand release, short - term demand resilience remains. Total inventory shows a downward trend but the absolute level is still high. The price will fluctuate with market sentiment. Short - term cost has strong support, and the downward space is relatively limited. It is advisable to operate within the range or stay on the sidelines and avoid excessive short - selling. The reference range for the main contract is [5884, 6210] [4][5]. - **Silicon Iron (SF)**: The fundamentals are showing signs of weakening. Alloy factory inventories are continuously accumulating and at a high level for the same period. Delivery inventory has stopped increasing and started to decline, but the absolute level is still high. There is no obvious short - term driver, and the price will follow market sentiment. In the medium term, the fundamentals will gradually return to a loose state, and the price may be under pressure. The reference range for the main contract is [5584, 5960] [53][54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Silicon Manganese - **Supply**: National output has increased for twelve consecutive weeks. Northern production areas have stable operations, with a slight resumption in southern Guizhou and Yunnan maintaining an over 85% operating rate. As of August 8, the national SM output was 195,825 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5,005 tons, and the operating rate was 43.43%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25% [4][11][13]. - **Demand**: Weekly hot metal production was 2.4032 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.39 million tons, while rebar production and apparent demand increased week - on - week. The new round of steel procurement has started, and the procurement volume and price of a leading steel mill have both increased, providing rigid support for alloy demand. As of August 8, the weekly SM demand was 125,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,485 tons [4][14][18]. - **Inventory**: The total enterprise inventory was 161,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,500 tons; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1,809 to 76,045; the delivery inventory (including forecasts) continued to decline to 384,500 tons, with a slower decline rate [4][23]. - **Cost and Profit**: Port manganese ore prices were strong. Multiple foreign mines' September quotes increased slightly, leading to strong price - holding sentiment among manganese ore merchants. The supply of manganese ore decreased significantly, mainly from South Africa and Australia. The arrival volume of South African manganese ore was 259,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41.8%. The actual arrival volumes of Gabon and Australian ores were still low. The port inventory is expected to remain low in the short term. Some regions have started the sixth round of coke price increases, but the chemical coke price in production areas has not yet followed [4]. - **Market Price**: As of August 7, the closing price of the SM main contract was 6,064 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Jiangsu was 6,000 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 64 yuan/ton. The spot prices in main production areas increased by 70 - 100 yuan/ton [7][8]. Silicon Iron - **Supply**: National output continued to increase this week, with the operating rate at a low level for the same period. Except for Inner Mongolia, the operating rates in other production areas were relatively stable. Inner Mongolia's production increased by 12.8% week - on - week, and the daily output was at a relatively high level for the same period. As of August 8, the weekly SF output was 109,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,700 tons, and the operating rate was 34.32%, a week - on - week increase of 0.56% [53][59]. - **Demand**: The demand for SF from five major steel products was 20,266.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 344.3 tons. In August, a new round of demand was released, and most steel mills' procurement volume and price increased. The inquiry price for a leading steel mill's August SF procurement was 5,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last month, and the procurement quantity was 2,835 tons, an increase of 135 tons from the previous round. Non - steel demand: the domestic magnesium market has been strong recently, and the magnesium ingot price in Fugu has risen to 17,000 yuan/ton [53][62][66]. - **Inventory**: The total enterprise inventory was 71,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6,200 tons; the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2,396 to 19,646; the delivery inventory (including forecasts) was 107,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,900 tons [53][67]. - **Cost and Profit**: The semi - coke market was stable, with some enterprises slightly increasing prices. The cost line in production areas moved up slightly, and the spot profit declined compared to the previous period. The immediate costs in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia were 5,499 yuan/ton and 5,352 yuan/ton respectively; the production profits were - 49 yuan/ton and 48 yuan/ton respectively [53][69][71]. - **Market Price**: As of August 7, the closing price of the SF main contract was 5,834 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Jiangsu was 5,600 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 234 yuan/ton [57].

硅铁&锰硅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021184 金园园 （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 日期： 2025年8月10日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 硅铁&锰硅观点：市场情绪与基本面博弈，合金走势震荡 | 基本面 | 条目 | | 硅铁(宁夏） | | | 锰硅（内蒙古） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 当期值 | 环比 | 同比 | 当期值 | 环比 | 同比 | | 供应 | 周产量（周） | 10.91 | 4.50% | 7.28% | 19.58 | 2.62% | -7.21% | | | 进口数量（6月） | 2.07 | 52.46% | 190.74% | 0.07 | 61.76% | -84.37% | | 需求 | 出口数量（6月） | 3.47 | -5.35% | 16.06% | 0.12 | -74.72% | -33.19% | ...

新华财经北京8月6日电（郭洲洋、左元）8月6日，商品多数上涨，焦煤涨超6%，硅铁涨超4%，工业硅、多晶硅、焦炭涨超3%，锰硅涨超2%，焦炭、纯 碱、红枣、碳酸锂、豆油、白银、PVC、对二甲苯涨超1%，其他品种涨跌幅均不足1%。 今日下跌品种不多，生猪、烧碱、SC原油、白糖跌幅居前，尽管上述品种跌幅均不足1%，但在今天商品较为火爆的强势格局下，收跌意味着短期供需偏 弱。就烧碱而言，南华期货分析认为，即将步入8月，09合约或开始走交割逻辑，建议关注仓单压力。基本面方面，近端跌价累库，山东液碱价格开始小幅 下滑，供应端产量有继续回升预期。成本端维持稳定，不过随着液氯价格上调，氯碱利润有所回升。非铝下游处于淡季。后市或关注旺季成色，下游需求改 善程度以及下游备货积极性。中长期看，复产叠加新产能逐步投放，供应端压力或逐步显现。 8月6日，焦煤主力合约本周连续第三个交易日收涨，以6.45%的涨幅领涨商品市场，焦煤自上周价格回落后持续反弹，今日2508、2510、2511合约触及涨 停。供应端减产的扰动继续影响焦煤市场，政策端。据应急管理部网站4日公布，《煤矿安全规程》已经修订通过，现予公布，自2026年2月1日起施行；此 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the recent bidding prices for silicon iron have shown slight increases across various steel mills, suggesting a potential stabilization in the market [1][2] - Fujian steel mill announced a silicon iron bidding price of 5550 CNY/ton, a slight increase of 20 CNY/ton from June [1] - A steel mill in North China set its silicon iron bidding price at 5600 CNY/ton, up by 100 CNY/ton from the previous round, with a procurement quantity of 4500 tons [1] Group 2 - The overall market sentiment is expected to improve moderately due to the recent bidding prices, although actual demand remains limited due to the traditional off-season [2] - The current mainstream quotation for silicon iron 75B is around 5300 CNY/ton, with cash-inclusive prices in regions like Henan, Hebei, Shandong, and Jiangsu ranging from 5465 to 5779 CNY/ton [2] - The SF2509 futures contract exhibited a wide fluctuation today, closing at 5494 points, indicating mixed market sentiment with price movements near short-term averages [3] Group 3 - The analysis suggests that the silicon iron market may maintain a stable trend in the short term, with limited potential for significant price adjustments [6] - Industry confidence appears to be somewhat cautious due to ongoing reports of steel mill production cuts and the deepening traditional demand off-season [6] - Close monitoring of supply-demand dynamics, raw material price trends, and futures performance is recommended for future market outlooks [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating with an upward bias [1] - Iron Ore: Oscillating [1] - Coking Coal: Oscillating with an upward bias [1] - Coke: Oscillating with an upward bias [1] - Manganese Silicon: Oscillating [3] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures market continued its narrow - range oscillation. Production decreased, inventory slightly accumulated, and apparent demand declined. With the expectation of crude steel production cuts, the short - term futures market is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [1] - Iron Ore: The futures price rose slightly. After the end - of - quarter rush, global shipments decreased, and iron - making water production is expected to decline further. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [1] - Coking Coal: The futures price rose. Supply is gradually recovering, and demand remains stable. With some market participants having policy expectations, the short - term futures market is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [1] - Coke: The futures price rose. Coking enterprises' production is at a loss, and inventory has decreased. With steel prices oscillating upward and market sentiment optimistic, the short - term futures market is expected to oscillate with an upward bias [1] - Manganese Silicon: The futures price oscillated upward. The market sentiment was boosted, and steel tenders started. The supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [3] - Ferrosilicon: The futures price oscillated upward. The market sentiment was boosted, and steel tenders started. Supply - demand has slightly improved, but the short - term price is expected to oscillate [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory Research Views - Steel: The closing price of rebar 2510 contract was 3063 yuan/ton, with an increase in positions. Spot prices were stable, and trading volume declined. National building materials production decreased by 14.27 tons to 416.01 tons, social inventory increased by 9.05 tons to 530 tons, factory inventory decreased by 2.51 tons to 316.13 tons, and apparent demand decreased by 24.46 tons to 409.47 tons. Shanxi steel mills received a notice of 10% - 30% crude steel production cuts [1] - Iron Ore: The closing price of the i2509 contract was 736.5 yuan/ton, up 3.5 yuan/ton or 0.3%. Port spot prices rose. After the end - of - quarter rush, global shipments decreased, and iron - making water production is expected to decline further [1] - Coking Coal: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 871.5 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton or 3.32%. Spot prices in some areas rose. Supply is gradually recovering, and demand remains stable [1] - Coke: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 1456 yuan/ton, up 31.5 yuan/ton or 2.21%. Port spot prices rose. Coking enterprises' production is at a loss, and inventory has decreased [1] - Manganese Silicon: The closing price of the main contract was 5718 yuan/ton, up 1.28%. The main contract positions decreased by 7292 to 37.06 million. Spot prices in some areas rose. Steel tenders started, with an increase in quantity and a decrease in the initial inquiry price [3] - Ferrosilicon: The closing price of the main contract was 5392 yuan/ton, up 0.75%. The main contract positions increased by 621 to 19.13 million. Spot prices in some areas changed. Steel tenders started, with an increase in quantity. Supply - demand has slightly improved [3] Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spreads: For example, the 10 - 1 spread of rebar was - 24.0, down 4.0; the 9 - 1 spread of iron ore was 26.5, up 0.5 [4] - Basis: For example, the basis of the 10 - contract of rebar was 97.0, up 10.0; the basis of the 09 - contract of iron ore was 31.0, down 1.3 [4] - Spot: For example, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3160.0, up 10.0; the spot price of PB powder was 725.0, up 2.0 [4] - Profit and Spread: For example, the rebar futures profit was 76.8, down 21.5; the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 127.0, down 1.0 [4] Chart Analysis - Main Contract Prices: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][8][10][11][12][15] - Main Contract Basis: There are charts showing the basis of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [17][18][21][23] - Inter - period Contract Spreads: There are charts showing the spreads of inter - period contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [25][27][29][32][34][35][38] - Inter - variety Contract Spreads: There are charts showing the spreads of inter - variety contracts such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, etc. [40][41][42][43] - Rebar Profit: There are charts showing the futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar [45][46][48][49] Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52] - Zhang Xiaojin: Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the futures industry [52] - Liu Xi: Black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis [52] - Zhang Chunjie: Black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [53]