Group 1: Silicon Manganese Market Overview - The silicon manganese market experienced significant volatility in the last two trading days due to news influences [1] - Daily production of manganese silicon slightly increased this week, with recovery in Inner Mongolia and a slowdown in production cuts in Ningxia [1] - Supply pressure remains concentrated in the northern production areas, while the southern regions have limited capacity for supply compression [1] Group 2: Demand and Inventory Trends - Iron water production decreased week-on-week, while port throughput remained high, with increases primarily from water transfer [1] - In terms of finished product data, hot-rolled and rebar demand showed a week-on-week decline, while wire rod demand increased overall, maintaining a destocking pattern [1] - Cold-rolled products continue to face significant pressure, but low inventory and resilient demand for finished products suggest limited contradictions in the market [1] Group 3: Manganese Ore Supply and Pricing - Global manganese ore shipments increased this week, with floating inventory concentrated in South Africa and Ghana, indicating high future import volumes [1] - The recovery of South32's Australian mines will further boost global manganese ore supply, putting downward pressure on manganese ore prices [1] - Port traders are facing negative import profits due to overseas mines lowering forward prices, leading to feedback pressure on manganese silicon and potential supply release [1] Group 4: Future Market Outlook - Short-term supply pressure for manganese silicon is expected to persist, but increased news disturbances may influence market dynamics [1] - Despite expectations for high iron water production, the overall market for manganese silicon is likely to remain in a bottom oscillation phase, lacking strong upward trend support [1] Group 5: Silicon Iron Market Analysis - Daily production of silicon iron decreased week-on-week, continuing to alleviate supply pressure, although overall inventory remains at a medium-high level [2] - Profit margins among main production area manufacturers are diverging, with loss-making companies maintaining production cuts and downstream purchasing enthusiasm declining [2] - The non-steel demand for magnesium metal remains strong due to raw material influences, but downstream demand is cautious with limited inquiries [2] Group 6: Price Strategy and Market Expectations - The market strategy for silicon iron suggests a range-bound trading approach, with short-term support levels around 5400 [2] - The outlook indicates a significant easing of supply-demand conflicts for silicon iron, but caution is advised regarding potential mismatches in supply and demand [2] - Price fluctuations are expected to continue, with the 07 contract projected to range between 5500-5800 [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black metal sector (silicon - iron and manganese - silicon) is "oscillating with a slight upward bias" [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - The prices of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron showed different trends yesterday, with the manganese - silicon main contract SM2509 rising 3.56% and the silicon - iron main contract SF2507 rising 0.04% compared to the opening price. The supply, inventory, and consumption of five major steel products have changed, and the national power generation installed capacity has increased year - on - year. South Africa has new mineral policies. The prices of silicon - manganese alloy and silicon - iron for Hebei Iron and Steel's May procurement have different changes. Before the news is confirmed, the manganese - silicon price may oscillate, and the fundamentals are still weak. It is recommended to wait and see [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The manganese - silicon main contract SM2509 closed at 5998 yesterday, a 3.56% increase from the opening price. The silicon - iron main contract SF2507 closed at 5622, a 0.04% increase from the opening price [1] Important News - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 872.44 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.09 million tons or 0.5%. The total inventory was 1398.54 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32.12 million tons or 2.2%. The weekly consumption was 904.56 million tons, a 1.0% decrease from the previous week [1] - As of the end of April, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.49 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 15.9%. Among them, the solar power installed capacity was 0.99 billion kilowatts, a 47.7% increase, and the wind power installed capacity was 0.54 billion kilowatts, an 18.2% increase [1] - On May 20, South Africa's Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy announced that the South African Cabinet officially approved the "Critical Minerals and Metals Strategy" and decided to solicit public opinions on the "Mineral Resources Development Bill (MRDB) 2025" [1] Market Logic - Regarding manganese - silicon, the news of South Africa's restriction on manganese ore exports spread yesterday. As South Africa's manganese ore imports account for more than half of China's total imports, the manganese - silicon price rose significantly. Hebei Iron and Steel has set the procurement price of silicon - manganese alloy in May at 5850 yuan/ton (acceptance), 150 yuan/ton higher than the inquiry price and 100 yuan/ton lower than the April price. The procurement quantity is 11,600 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the previous month. For silicon - iron, Hebei Iron and Steel's procurement price of 75B silicon - iron in May is 5800 yuan/ton, 150 yuan/ton lower than in April, and the quantity is 2135 tons, an increase of 435 tons from April. After the previous shutdown and maintenance, the supply - demand of both silicon products is gradually stabilizing, and the spot market has a strong willingness to support prices [1] Trading Strategy - The short - term upper pressure for manganese - silicon is 6100. Silicon - iron has relatively strong bottom support due to the influence of manganese - silicon. The fundamentals are still considered weak. Currently, the tradable space in terms of news is relatively limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - Silicon iron shows a weak and volatile trend due to the resonance of the black - plate sector; manganese silicon shows a weak and volatile trend as Australian ore resumes shipping [2]. - The trend strength of silicon iron is 0, and that of manganese silicon is 0, both indicating a neutral trend [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Data Tracking Futures - Silicon iron 2507 closed at 5638, down 52 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 120,368 and an open interest of 218,280; silicon iron 2509 closed at 5552, down 42, with a trading volume of 44,480 and an open interest of 149,333 [1]. - Manganese silicon 2506 closed at 5722, down 62, with a trading volume of 3,148 and an open interest of 19,309; manganese silicon 2509 closed at 5778, down 66, with a trading volume of 212,202 and an open interest of 397,001 [1]. Spot - The price of silicon iron (FeSi75 - B) in Inner Mongolia was 5400 yuan/ton; the price of silicon - manganese (FeMn65Si17) in Inner Mongolia was 5630 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [1]. - The price of manganese ore (Mn44 block) was 37.5 yuan/ton - degree; the price of semi - coke (small material) in Shenmu was 620 yuan/ton [1]. Price Difference - The spot - futures price difference of silicon iron (spot - 07 futures) was - 238 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan/ton; that of manganese silicon (spot - 09 futures) was - 148 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan/ton [1]. - The near - far month price difference of silicon iron 2507 - 2509 was 86 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; that of manganese silicon 2506 - 2509 was - 56 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton [1]. - The cross - variety price difference of manganese silicon 2507 - silicon iron 2507 was 100 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton; that of manganese silicon 2509 - silicon iron 2509 was 226 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton [2]. 2. Macro and Industry News - On May 20, the price range of 72 silicon iron in different regions was 5300 - 5450 yuan/ton, and that of 75 was 5850 - 6000 yuan/ton; the FOB price of 72 was 1020 - 1050 dollars/ton, and that of 75 was 1100 - 1120 dollars/ton. The mainstream price range of 6517 silicon - manganese in the north was 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton, and in the south was 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton [1]. - Hegang set the purchase price of 75B silicon iron in May at 5800 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from April, with a quantity of 2135 tons, up 435 tons from April. Several steel mills in different regions set their silicon - manganese purchase prices and quantities in May [1]. - In April 2025, China exported 3423.245 tons of silicon - manganese, and 8362.25 tons from January to April; imported 426.324 tons in April, and 4301.178 tons from January to April [3]. - In April 2025, the national manganese ore import volume was 297.12 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 104.01 million tons (↑53.86%) and a year - on - year increase of 82.7 million tons (↑38.57%). From January to April 2025, the cumulative import volume was 883.14 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 59.41 million tons (↓6.30%) [3]. - The top five manganese ore importing countries in April 2025 were South Africa (145.65 million tons), Gabon (69.87 million tons), Ghana (55.40 million tons), Cote d'Ivoire (10.60 million tons), and Australia (6.30 million tons), accounting for 96.87% of the total import volume [3]. - South32 announced the resumption of Australian manganese ore export sales from its Groote Eylandt Mining Company (GEMCO). The first batch of manganese ore is being loaded and is expected to leave the newly rebuilt terminal in the next few days. Export sales are expected to increase in the June quarter of 2025 and normalize in fiscal year 26 [4]. - NMT announced the loading price of manganese ore for China in June 2025. The price of South African lump ore with a minimum Mn content of 36% is 3.85 dollars/ton - degree, and that of 35% is 3.75 dollars/ton - degree, unchanged from last month [4].

Group 1: Silicon Manganese - The production of silicon manganese is decreasing, with reductions expanding in Inner Mongolia and Chongqing, leading to a significant decline in output [1] - The continuous decline in market prices is causing hedging profits to turn into losses, resulting in a decrease in warehouse receipts and effective forecasts [1] - Demand remains strong with high pig iron production and recovering steel mill profits, while low inventory levels persist, indicating resilience in finished product demand [1] - Global manganese ore shipments have decreased, particularly due to a sharp drop in arrivals from South Africa, leading to a reduction in port inventories [1] - Despite the decrease in port inventories, future manganese ore shipments are expected to remain high, putting pressure on port traders due to negative profit margins [1] - Short-term expectations indicate that silicon manganese prices will continue to fluctuate and stabilize, with support strengthening as warehouse receipts decrease [1] Group 2: Silicon Iron - Recent environmental inspections in Inner Mongolia are expected to lead to a reduction in daily production by approximately 800 tons from major producers [2] - Overall, silicon iron daily production has decreased, alleviating supply pressure, although inventory levels remain at a medium to high level [2] - Demand for iron remains high, with steel mill profits recovering and resilient demand for finished products, while non-steel demand for magnesium metal is limited due to cautious purchasing [2] - The cost side shows stable prices for raw materials like Lantan, with limited supply-demand conflicts [2] - Future expectations suggest that the supply-demand imbalance for silicon iron is easing, with potential price stabilization and rebound driven by valuation recovery and macroeconomic factors [2]

Group 1: Silicon Iron - The silicon iron market continues to experience a reduction in production, with factory inventories decreasing, although overall inventory remains at a medium-high level [1] - Demand for molten iron has significantly increased to 2.44 million tons, primarily due to the recovery of steel mill profits and the resumption of large blast furnaces [1] - The export of silicon iron in March saw a month-on-month increase of 24.46%, but the market generally believes this growth lacks sustainability [1] Group 2: Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon market maintains a reduction in production, with the pace of reduction remaining stable compared to the previous period [2] - The demand side shows that the steel procurement for April is nearing its end, with significant increases in molten iron production to 2.44 million tons due to steel mill profit recovery [2] - The global shipment of manganese ore has slightly decreased, while the arrival volume at ports has significantly increased, leading to a rise in port inventories [2]