光期研究 见微知著 铁合金策略月报 2026 年 3 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 铁合金：关注成本扰动 库存：硅铁样本企业库存环比小幅下降。依据钢联数据，截至2月27日，60家硅铁样本企业库存为70400吨，环比下降1110吨，同比下 降7580吨。 p 2 铁合金：关注成本扰动 锰 硅 供应：春节期间锰硅生产企业开工率平稳，节后逐渐上涨。依据钢联线数据，1月全国锰硅产量85.4万吨，环比小幅增加1.05万吨，同 比下降3.3万吨。节后首周，锰硅周产量19.74万吨，周环比增加1.84%，仍位于近年来同期低位。 需求：节后钢厂锰硅需求量当周值环比下降，2月钢厂锰硅库存可用天数环比增加。节后首周，样本钢厂锰硅需求量当周值11.02万吨， 周环比下降1.3%，螺纹产量占五大材总产量比例同样偏低，需求端支撑有限。 库存：样本企业库存环比增加，持续刷近年来同期新高。截至2月27日，63家样本企业库存39.83万吨，环比增加0.89%，同比增加约25 万吨。 成本与利润：锰矿稳中有升，成本端有支撑。依据钢联数据，截至 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Black Metal Daily Report - Ferroalloy Daily, March 2, 2026 [1] - Researcher: Zhou Tao [2] - Contact: zhoutao_qh1@chinastock.com.cn [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures - SF主力合约: Closing price 5764, up 38 (0.66%) from the previous day, weekly increase of 272, trading volume 275339 (down 71618), open interest 221874 (down 14296) [3] - SM主力合约: Closing price 6082, up 56 (0.93%) from the previous day, weekly increase of 312, trading volume 440382 (down 135210), open interest 454840 (up 8585) [3] Spot - Silicon Iron: Prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, and Tianjin increased by 50 - 150 yuan/ton, while the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged [3] - Manganese Silicon: Prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, and Jiangsu increased by 20 - 150 yuan/ton [3] Basis/Spread - Silicon Iron: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis -364 (up 12), weekly change -142; Ningxia - main contract basis -364 (up 62), weekly change -152; Qinghai - main contract basis -414 (up 12), weekly change -172; Jiangsu - Inner Mongolia spread 350 (down 50), weekly change -130; SF - SM spread -318 (down 18), weekly change -40 [3] - Manganese Silicon: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis -332 (down 6), weekly change -182; Ningxia - main contract basis -382 (down 6), weekly change -162; Guangxi - main contract basis -262 (down 36), weekly change -242; Guangxi - Inner Mongolia spread 70 (down 30), weekly change -60 [3] Raw Materials - Manganese Ore (Tianjin): Australian lump unchanged at 42.3 yuan/ton degree, weekly increase of 0.3; South African semi - carbonate up 0.2 to 37.7 yuan/ton degree, weekly increase of 0.7; Gabon lump up 0.2 to 43.2 yuan/ton degree, weekly increase of 0.4 [3] - Lanthanum Coke Small Material: Prices in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [3] Group 3: Market Judgment Trading Strategy - Unilateral: After the sharp price increase, the risk - return ratio has decreased. Partially take profit on the previously recommended long positions [5][6][7] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [7] Key Information - A silicon iron enterprise in Ningxia plans to resume production of 3 * 33000 silicon iron electric furnaces on March 1, affecting daily production of 300 tons, and the 4th furnace is expected to resume production at the beginning of the month [8] - On the 2nd, the price of South African semi - carbonate Mn35.4%Fe4% at Tianjin Port was 37.5 yuan/ton degree, Australian lump Mn42.1% was 42.5 yuan/ton degree, and Gabon lump Mn47% was 43.5 yuan/ton degree [8] Group 4: Cost and Profit Silicon Iron | Region | Production Cost (yuan/ton) | Profit (yuan/ton) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Inner Mongolia | 5500 | -250 | | Ningxia | 5321 | -121 | | Shaanxi | 5505 | -325 | | Qinghai | 5839 | -589 | | Gansu | 5687 | -437 | [19] Manganese Silicon | Region | Production Cost (yuan/ton) | Profit (yuan/ton) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Inner Mongolia | 5977 | -377 | | Ningxia | 5949 | -399 | | Guangxi | 6280 | -580 | | Guizhou | 6164 | -514 | [25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On February 12, ferroalloy futures prices declined overall. The silicon - iron (SF) main contract closed at 5500, down 1.36% with an increase of 25,052 in positions; the manganese - silicon (SM) main contract closed at 5800, down 0.41% with an increase of 10,954 in positions. Silicon - iron supply is at a low level, and demand from raw materials has some support. Manganese - silicon supply is generally stable, but demand from electric furnaces is relatively affected. Both can be considered as long - side positions after the holiday at current valuation levels [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the SF main contract is 5500, with a daily change of - 76 and a weekly change of - 150. The trading volume is 130,697, with a daily change of 46,088, and the open interest is 162,337, with a daily change of 25,052. The closing price of the SM main contract is 5800, with a daily change of - 24 and a weekly change of - 84. The trading volume is 101,203, with a daily change of 1754, and the open interest is 378,385, with a daily change of 10,954 [3]. - **Spot Data**: For silicon - iron, the spot price in Inner Mongolia is 5370, down 20 yuan/ton daily and 70 yuan/ton weekly. For manganese - silicon, the spot price in Inner Mongolia is 5650, with no daily change and no weekly change [3]. - **Basis/Spread Data**: The basis of Inner Mongolia - main contract for silicon - iron is - 130, with a daily change of 56 and a weekly change of 80. The SF - SM spread is - 300, with a daily change of - 52 and a weekly change of - 66 [3]. - **Raw Material Data**: The price of Australian manganese ore blocks in Tianjin is 42, with no daily change and a weekly change of 0.5. The price of semi - carbonate manganese ore from South Africa is 36.8, with a daily change of 0.3 and a weekly change of 0.5 [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Trading Strategy**: Approach the long holiday by exiting the market and observing. After the holiday, at the current valuation level, long - side positions can be considered. For arbitrage, observe; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [5][6][7]. - **Important Information**: Exxaro Resources has completed the acquisition of manganese assets in the world's largest manganese mining area, becoming the fourth - largest manganese producer globally. In January 2026, China's truck market sold 323,500 vehicles, a 10% decrease from December 2025 and a 28% increase year - on - year [8]. 3.3 Related Attachments - There are multiple graphs including the trend of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM on the disk, the basis of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon, spot prices, ferroalloy electricity prices, production costs, and production profits [14][16][17][18][21]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On February 5, ferroalloy futures prices generally rose. The silicon iron (SF) main contract closed at 5668, up 0.25% with a decrease of 16,573 lots in positions; the manganese silicon (SM) main contract closed at 5884, up 0.27% with a decrease of 3,315 lots in positions [6]. - For silicon iron, on the 5th, the spot price was stable with a slight upward trend, and the spot price in Inner Mongolia increased by 20 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the output of sample enterprises remained at a low level, and there was a demand for technological transformation due to differential electricity prices in Shaanxi, so there was an expected decline in the supply side in the future. On the demand side, steel inventories continued to accumulate, and steel mills were expected to have seasonal production cuts before the Spring Festival. On the cost side, the electricity price in January was gradually settled, and the electricity price in Qinghai continued to rise slightly. The leading commodity varieties declined again, and the overall market sentiment was still fragile, but the cost support for silicon iron was strong, and the previously recommended long positions could be held [6]. - For manganese silicon, on the 5th, the manganese ore spot was stable with a slight upward trend, and the prices of semi - carbonate and Gabon lumps at Tianjin Port increased by 0.1 yuan/ton degree. The manganese silicon spot was generally stable. On the supply side, the operating rate of sample enterprises decreased slightly, but some new production capacities were put into operation recently, and the supply side was mainly stable. On the demand side, as mentioned in the silicon iron part, steel inventories began to accumulate, and steel mills were expected to have seasonal production cuts before the Spring Festival. On the cost side, the manganese ore port inventory was generally at a low level, the port spot was stable with a slight upward trend, and the overseas mines' quotes for March continued to rise slightly. The overall sentiment in the commodity market was still fragile, but the manganese ore cost support was relatively strong, and the previously recommended long positions could be held [6]. - Unilateral strategy: The cost support for alloys is strong, and the previously recommended long positions can be held; Arbitrage strategy: Wait and see; Option strategy: Sell out - of - the - money put options [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - **Futures Information** - SF main contract: The closing price was 5650, with a daily change of - 4, a weekly change of - 86, a trading volume of 130,009, a daily change in trading volume of 36,892, an open interest of 89,527, and a daily change in open interest of 52,894 [3]. - SM main contract: The closing price was 5884, with a daily change of 16, a weekly change of - 42, a trading volume of 161,205, a daily change in trading volume of 42,354, an open interest of 350,906, and a daily change in open interest of - 3,315 [3]. - **Spot Information** - Silicon iron: The spot price of 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia was 5440 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 20 and a weekly change of 40; in Ningxia, it was 5400 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of - 50; in Qinghai, it was 5350 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 0; in Jiangsu and Tianjin, it was 5750 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 0 [3]. - Manganese silicon: The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was 5650 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of - 20; in Ningxia, it was 5610 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of - 10; in Guangxi, it was 5750 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of - 50; in Jiangsu, it was 5800 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of - 50; in Tianjin, it was 5750 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of - 30 [3]. - **Basis/Spread Information** - Silicon iron: The basis of Inner Mongolia - main contract was - 210, with a daily change of 24 and a weekly change of 126; Ningxia - main contract was - 250, with a daily change of 4 and a weekly change of 36; Qinghai - main contract was - 300, with a daily change of 4 and a weekly change of 86; Jiangsu - Inner Mongolia was 310, with a daily change of - 20 and a weekly change of - 40; SF - SM spread was - 234, with a daily change of - 20 and a weekly change of - 44 [3]. - Manganese silicon: The basis of Inner Mongolia - main contract was - 234, with a daily change of - 16 and a weekly change of 22; Ningxia - main contract was - 274, with a daily change of - 16 and a weekly change of 32; Guangxi - main contract was - 134, with a daily change of - 16 and a weekly change of - 8; Guangxi - Inner Mongolia was 100, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of - 30 [3]. - **Raw Material Information** - Manganese ore (Tianjin): The price of Australian lumps was 41.5 yuan/ton degree, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 0; South African semi - carbonate was 36.3 yuan/ton degree, with a daily change of 0.1 and a weekly change of 0.1; Gabon lumps was 42.8 yuan/ton degree, with a daily change of 0.1 and a weekly change of 0.1 [3]. - Blue charcoal small pieces: In Shaanxi, it was 755 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 0; in Ningxia, it was 805 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 0; in Inner Mongolia, it was 745 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 0 [3]. Second Part: Market Judgement - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Hold the previously recommended long positions as the alloy cost support is strong; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Sell out - of - the - money put options [7]. - **Important Information** - On the 5th, the quote of Tianjin Port's semi - carbonate Mn36.48%Fe5.47% was 37 yuan/ton degree, Australian lumps Mn42% was 42 yuan/ton degree, and Gabon lumps Mn44% was 43 yuan/ton degree [8]. - UMK announced the manganese ore quote for China in March 2026: Mn36% South African lumps were 4.45 US dollars/ton degree, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 US dollars/ton degree [8]. Third Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM main contracts, the monthly spread of silicon iron and manganese silicon, the basis of silicon iron and manganese silicon, the spot price of silicon manganese, the electricity price of ferroalloys, the cost and profit of silicon iron and manganese silicon, etc. [9][11][14][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Manganese silicon has both supply and demand increasing with high inventory. The spot price in Inner Mongolia is 5680 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous period. The cost of manganese ore is stable, and the losses of spot goods in the main production areas are narrowing. The main contract of manganese silicon closed down 0.51% to 5836 yuan/ton, operating between the 20 - and 60 - day moving averages. With the continuous increase in manganese silicon inventory and the approaching end of winter storage replenishment, steel mills make rigid - demand purchases. New round of ferroalloy tenders are starting, and it is expected to fluctuate. [2] - Silicon iron has both supply and demand increasing and both are at low levels in the same period, with the supply - demand gap widening and the inventory being neutral. The spot price of silicon iron in Ningxia is 5380 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous period, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. The main contract of silicon iron closed down 0.71% to 5620 yuan/ton, operating between the 20 - and 60 - day moving averages. With limited fundamental drivers, winter storage is approaching the end, steel mills make rigid - demand purchases. New round of ferroalloy tenders are starting, and it is expected to fluctuate. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM main contract closing price: 5836 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; SF main contract closing price: 5620 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2] - SM futures contract open interest: 552,043 lots, up 15,659 lots; SF futures contract open interest: 349,010 lots, up 24,751 lots [2] - Net position of the top 20 in manganese silicon: - 44,276 lots, down 2178 lots; net position of the top 20 in silicon iron: - 19,043 lots, up 820 lots [2] - SM 5 - 3 month contract spread: 36 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; SF 4 - 3 month contract spread: - 12 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2] - SM warehouse receipts: 38,088 pieces, up 396 pieces; SF warehouse receipts: 8,577 pieces, up 379 pieces [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese silicon FeMn68Si18: 5680 yuan/ton; Guizhou manganese silicon FeMn68Si18: 5730 yuan/ton; Yunnan manganese silicon FeMn68Si18: 5730 yuan/ton, all unchanged [2] - Inner Mongolia silicon iron FeSi75 - B: 5400 yuan/ton; Qinghai silicon iron FeSi75 - B: 5300 yuan/ton; Ningxia silicon iron FeSi75 - B: 5380 yuan/ton, all unchanged [2] - Manganese silicon index average: 5665 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan; SF main contract basis: - 240 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; SM main contract basis: - 156 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Average price of South African high - iron manganese ore in Tianjin Port: 31.55 yuan/ton - degree; average price of South African semi - carbonate manganese ore in Tianjin Port: 36.45 yuan/ton - degree, both unchanged [2] - Silica (98%, Northwest): 210 yuan/ton; semi - coke (medium material, Shenmu): 770 yuan/ton; Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke: 1160 yuan/ton, all unchanged [2] - Manganese ore port inventory: 435.70 million tons, up 10.90 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Manganese silicon enterprise operating rate: 36.21%, unchanged; silicon iron enterprise operating rate: 29.12%, up 0.03% [2] - Manganese silicon supply: 192,395 tons, up 1260 tons; silicon iron supply: 98,500 tons, up 100 tons [2] - Manganese silicon manufacturer inventory: 374,300 tons, up 1300 tons; silicon iron manufacturer inventory: 67,900 tons, up 680 tons [2] - Manganese silicon inventory days of national steel mills: 17.48 days, up 1.96 days; silicon iron inventory days of national steel mills: 17.52 days, up 2.11 days [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Demand for manganese silicon from five major steel products: 117,220 tons, up 356 tons; demand for silicon iron from five major steel products: 18,758.40 tons, up 56 tons [2] - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills: 79.00%, up 0.32%; blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills: 85.47%, down 0.04% [2] - Crude steel output: 68.1774 million tons, down 1.6936 million tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce and other 9 departments issued the "2026 'Happy Shopping Spring Festival' Special Activity Plan", encouraging localities to increase subsidies for trade - in of consumer goods during the Spring Festival and strengthen support for offline physical retail [2] - Ferroalloy tenders are starting. In February, HBIS's tender price for 75B silicon iron is 5760 yuan/ton, the same as the previous round. The tender quantity is 2150 tons, 1163 tons less than the previous round [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - On January 29, ferroalloy futures prices rose overall. The silicon iron (SF) main contract closed at 5736, up 1.85% with a decrease of 33,983 in positions; the manganese silicon (SM) main contract closed at 5926, up 1.61% with a decrease of 12,587 in positions. The previous recommended long positions can be held. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see, and for options, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options [5][6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Market**: The SF main contract closed at 5736, with a daily change of 104 and a weekly change of 126. The trading volume was 228,839, with a daily change of 106,016, and the open interest was 172,651, with a daily change of - 33,983. The SM main contract closed at 5926, with a daily change of 94 and a weekly change of 112. The trading volume was 256,191, with a daily change of 116,337, and the open interest was 362,400, with a daily change of - 12,587 [3] - **Spot Market**: Silicon iron spot prices were stable to strong, with prices in various regions rising by 50 - 100 yuan/ton. Manganese silicon spot prices were also stable to strong, with some regions rising by 50 - 60 yuan/ton [5] - **Basis/Spread**: The basis and spread of silicon iron and manganese silicon showed different changes. For example, the SF - SM spread was - 190, with a daily change of 10 and a weekly change of 14 [3] - **Raw Materials**: Manganese ore prices in Tianjin were stable, with slight weekly decreases. Lanthanum charcoal small materials prices in some regions decreased [3] 3.2 Market Judgment - **Trading Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Due to the good overall sentiment in the commodity market, ferroalloys followed the upward trend, and the previously recommended long positions could be held [5][6] - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [6] - **Options**: Sell out - of - the - money put options [6] - **Important Information** - On January 29, the prices of manganese ore in Tianjin were reported. For example, the price of Australian lump ore (Mn42.2%Fe3.6%) was 41.5 yuan/ton - degree [7] - Hebei Iron and Steel Group launched the February silicon iron tender. The tender quantity of FeSi75 - B silicon iron was 2,150 tons, a decrease of 1,163 tons compared with 3,313 tons in January [7] 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM, the monthly spread of silicon iron and manganese silicon, the basis of silicon iron and manganese silicon, spot prices, electricity prices, production costs, and production profits [8][11][12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoint - On January 28, ferroalloy futures prices rose overall. For ferrosilicon, the spot price was stable to weak, with supply potentially decreasing and demand expected to increase, and previous long positions could be held. For silicomanganese, the manganese ore spot was stable to weak, supply was stable, demand was expected to rise, and it could be a long - position option on dips [5]. - Unilateral: Alloys are undervalued and can be considered for long positions on dips; Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines; Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [6]. Summary by Directory Market Information - **Futures**: SF (ferrosilicon) main contract closed at 5632, up 28 from the previous day and 76 from the previous week, with a trading volume of 122,823 (up 10,420) and an open interest of 185,904 (down 13,253). SM (silicomanganese) main contract closed at 5832, up 14 from the previous day and 46 from the previous week, with a trading volume of 139,854 (up 35,909) and an open interest of 374,987 (up 3,539) [3]. - **Spot**: 72% FeSi prices in different regions showed some declines, with some falling by 30 - 50 yuan/ton. Silicomanganese 6517 prices were mixed, with some up and some down. For example, 72% FeSi in Qinghai dropped 50 yuan/ton, and silicomanganese 6517 in Jiangsu rose 20 yuan/ton [3]. - **Basis/Spread**: Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese basis and spreads showed various changes. For example, the SF - SM spread was - 200, up 14 from the previous day and 30 from the previous week [3]. - **Raw Materials**: Manganese ore prices in Tianjin were stable to weak, with South African semi - carbonate down 0.2 yuan/ton degree. Lanthanum charcoal small materials in different regions also showed price declines [3]. Market Judgement - **Trading Strategy**: Ferrosilicon: The previous long positions can be held as the supply may decrease, demand is expected to increase, and the valuation is not high. Silicomanganese: It can be a long - position option on dips due to stable supply, expected demand increase, and strong cost support [5]. - **Important Information**: On January 28, Tianjin Port's semi - carbonate, Gabon block, and Australian block had specific quotes. A steel mill in Zhejiang set the ferrosilicon purchase price at 5,868 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton from the previous round, with a quantity of 300 tons [7][8]. Related Attachments - The attachments include various charts showing the trends of ferroalloy main contracts, spreads, basis, spot prices, electricity prices, production costs, and production profits [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On January 22, 2026, ferroalloy futures prices rose overall. The silicon ferroalloy (SF) main contract closed at 5610, up 0.97% with a decrease of 11,689 lots in positions; the manganese silicon (SM) main contract closed at 5814, up 0.48% with an increase of 23,782 lots in positions [5]. - For SF, the spot price was stable with a slight upward trend on the 22nd, rising 20 - 30 yuan/ton in some regions. The short - term supply side's operating rate decreased slightly, and there is an expectation of supply reduction in the future due to the differential electricity price in Shaanxi. Steel production is stable, supporting raw material demand. The electricity price in the main production areas is stable with a slight downward trend, but there is an upward adjustment expectation in some areas. SF's valuation is not high and can be a long - position variety on dips [5]. - For SM, the manganese ore spot price was stable with a slight downward trend on the 22nd, with Australian and Gabonese blocks in Tianjin Port falling 0.1 yuan/ton - degree. The SM spot price rose 20 yuan/ton in some regions. The supply side's operating rate of sample enterprises decreased slightly, but new production capacity is being put into operation, and the overall supply is stable. Steel production is stable, supporting short - term raw material demand. The manganese ore port inventory continues to decline, the port spot price is slightly adjusted but generally firm, and overseas mine quotes continue to rise. SM's valuation is not high, and the cost support is strong, so it can be a long - position variety on dips [5]. - Trading strategies: Hold previous long positions, and continue to take long positions on dips; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; sell out - of - the - money put options [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - **Futures**: The SF main contract closed at 5610, up 54 from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week, with a trading volume of 108,864 (down 21,998 from the previous day) and an open interest of 244,000 (down 11,689 from the previous day). The SM main contract closed at 5814, up 28 from the previous day and down 56 from the previous week, with a trading volume of 141,601 (up 6,241 from the previous day) and an open interest of 356,074 (up 23,782 from the previous day) [3]. - **Spot**: The spot price of 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia was 5370, up 20 from the previous day and down 80 from the previous week; in Ningxia, it was 5350, up 30 from the previous day and down 50 from the previous week; in Qinghai, it was 5300, unchanged from the previous day and down 50 from the previous week; in Jiangsu, it was 5650, unchanged from the previous day and down 100 from the previous week; in Tianjin, it was 5800, up 20 from the previous day and down 70 from the previous week. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was 5680, unchanged from the previous day and down 70 from the previous week; in Ningxia, it was 5570, unchanged from the previous day and down 60 from the previous week; in Guangxi, it was 5750, unchanged from the previous day and down 100 from the previous week; in Jiangsu, it was 5720, unchanged from the previous day and down 100 from the previous week; in Tianjin, it was 5670, up 20 from the previous day and down 80 from the previous week [3]. - **Basis/Spread**: For SF, the Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 240, down 34 from the previous day and down 80 from the previous week; the Ningxia - main contract basis was - 260, down 24 from the previous day and down 50 from the previous week; the Qinghai - main contract basis was - 310, down 54 from the previous day and down 50 from the previous week; the Jiangsu - Inner Mongolia spread was 280, down 20 from the previous day and down 20 from the previous week. For SM, the Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 134, down 28 from the previous day and down 14 from the previous week; the Ningxia - main contract basis was - 244, down 28 from the previous day and down 4 from the previous week; the Guangxi - main contract basis was - 64, down 28 from the previous day and down 44 from the previous week; the Guangxi - Inner Mongolia spread was 70, unchanged from the previous day and down 30 from the previous week. The SF - SM spread was - 204, up 26 from the previous day and up 56 from the previous week [3]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of Australian manganese ore blocks in Tianjin Port was 41.6, down 0.1 from the previous day and down 0.4 from the previous week; South African semi - carbonate was 36.2, unchanged from the previous day and down 0.3 from the previous week; Gabonese blocks were 42.7, down 0.1 from the previous day and down 0.8 from the previous week. The price of small - sized blue charcoal in Shaanxi was 770, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week; in Ningxia, it was 840, unchanged; in Inner Mongolia, it was 750, unchanged [3]. 3.2 Market Research and Judgment - **Trading Strategies**: Hold previous long positions, continue to take long positions on dips; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; sell out - of - the - money put options [6]. - **Important Information**: On the 22nd, the price of semi - carbonate in Tianjin Port with Mn36.48% and Fe5.47% was 36 yuan/ton - degree, South African high - iron with Mn28% and Fe20% and a particle size of 10 - 100mm was 30.5 yuan/ton - degree, low - grade semi - carbonate with Mn32.23% was 32 yuan/ton - degree, and Australian blocks with Mn42.2% were 41.7 yuan/ton - degree. In December 2025, China's rebar production was 1.3559 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.6%; the cumulative production from January to December was 18.6308 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.3% [7]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report includes multiple charts such as the trend of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM on the disk, the inter - month spread of SF and SM, the basis of SF and SM, the spot price of silicon manganese, the electricity price of ferroalloys, the production cost and profit of SF and SM [8][10][14][16][18][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand contradiction still needs to be alleviated. Although the production cut expectation has been priced in, there is insufficient expectation for demand - side improvement in the future, and the price rebound lacks sustainability. It is expected to fluctuate within the range of 5500 - 5700 yuan/ton in the short term [6][10]. - For silicomanganese, it is in a state where its own supply - demand is in a slight surplus, but the overall manganese element is in a balanced state. The manganese ore provides certain support for the silicomanganese price. There is no clear signal of a trend - based rebound yet, and the price is expected to remain weak in the future. Consider short - term operations such as shorting when the price rebounds above the spot cost in Ningxia [6][123]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Ferrosilicon 1. Valuation - This week, the main ferrosilicon contract increased by 0.96%, closing at 5672 yuan/ton. There were price increases in the main production areas and some trading areas [10]. 2. Supply - The national start - up rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 29.5%, a decrease of 0.8% from last week. The daily average output was 14,065 tons, a decrease of 1.30% from last week. The weekly supply was 98,500 tons. Production cuts were mainly concentrated in Shaanxi and Gansu, while production in Inner Mongolia and Qinghai increased slightly [10][37]. 3. Cost and Profit - The immediate production cost in Inner Mongolia was 5492 yuan/ton, in Qinghai was 5911 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia was 5593 yuan/ton. The immediate profit in Inner Mongolia was - 222 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia was - 343 yuan/ton [10]. 4. Lanthanum Coke - The lanthanum coke market remained stable. The capacity utilization rate of 135 lanthanum coke enterprises was 44.81%, a decrease of 1.31 percentage points. The daily average output was 167,600 tons, a decrease of 600,000 tons. The lanthanum coke inventory was 778,200 tons, an increase of 681,000 tons, and the raw coal inventory was 1,169,240,000 tons, a decrease of 676,000 tons [10]. 5. Demand - The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel types was 18,071 tons, a decrease of 0.34% from last week. In terms of non - steel demand, the price of magnesium metal was firm, and downstream replenishment increased at the end of the month, but the downstream acceptance of high prices was poor. In terms of exports, overseas inquiries and transactions were okay near Christmas, but the acceptance of high prices was insufficient [10]. 6. Inventory - As of December 25th, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 63,610 tons, a decrease of 2.38% from last week [10]. II. Silicomanganese 1. Futures and Spot - This week, the main silicomanganese contract increased by 0.76%, closing at 5840 yuan/ton. There were price changes in the main production areas and trading areas [123]. 2. Supply - The start - up rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 36.78%, an increase of 1.17% from last week. The daily average output was 27,510 tons, an increase of 620 tons. The weekly output was 192,570 tons, a 2.31% increase from last week [123]. 3. Cost and Profit - The cost in Inner Mongolia was 5780 yuan/ton, and in Guangxi was 6220 yuan/ton. The production profit in Inner Mongolia was - 210 yuan/ton [123]. 4. Manganese Ore Supply - The global shipping volume of South African manganese ore decreased by 20.31% week - on - week, Australian by 1.13%, and Gabonese by 49.89%, while Ghanaian increased by 100%. The arrival volume in China from different countries also had various changes [123]. 5. Manganese Ore Inventory - As of December 19th, the manganese ore inventory in major Chinese ports was 4.533 million tons, a decrease of 55,000 tons from last week [123]. 6. Demand - The weekly demand for silicomanganese in five major steel types was 112,653 tons, a 0.22% increase from last week. The daily average pig iron output was 2.2658 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons [123]. 7. Inventory - As of June 20th, the national inventory was 387,000 tons, an increase of 2500 tons from last week [123].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a black metal daily report dated December 16, 2025, focusing on ferroalloys [1] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - SF主力合约收盘价5482, down 36 from the previous day and up 20 for the week, with a trading volume of 282348 (down 125888) and an open interest of 257168 (up 716) [2] - SM主力合约收盘价5736, down 22 from the previous day and up 4 for the week, with a trading volume of 160310 (down 64885) and an open interest of 278789 (up 5134) [2] Spot Market - For ferrosilicon, spot prices in some regions decreased by 20 - 50 yuan/ton on December 16. For example, 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia was 5280 yuan/ton, down 20 from the previous day and up 80 for the week [2] - For silicomanganese, spot prices were stable to weak, with some regions seeing a 20 - yuan/ton decrease. For example, silicomanganese 6517 in Inner Mongolia was 5540 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and up 30 for the week [2] Basis/Spread - For ferrosilicon, the Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was -202, up 16 from the previous day and up 60 for the week [2] - For silicomanganese, the Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was -196, up 22 from the previous day and up 26 for the week [2] - The SF - SM spread was -254, down 14 from the previous day and up 16 for the week [2] Raw Materials - Manganese ore prices in Tianjin were mostly stable, with the Gabon lump price down 0.5 for the week [2] - Lanthanum semi - coke prices in some regions decreased by 20 yuan/ton for the week [2] Group 3: Market Judgment Ferrosilicon - On December 16, the spot price was stable to weak. The supply side may decline slightly this week due to poor enterprise profits and new maintenance in some Qinghai manufacturers [5] - The demand side is under pressure as November macro data weakened and both steel production and apparent consumption decreased [5] - The overall fundamentals remain in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices continuing to oscillate at the bottom [5] Silicomanganese - On December 16, manganese ore spot prices were stable, and silicomanganese spot prices were stable to weak [5] - The supply side is expected to decline due to poor manufacturer profit levels [5] - The demand side is dragged down by the deterioration of November real - estate data and the decline of rebar apparent consumption and production [5] - The cost side is supported as manganese ore port inventories are at a low level and overseas mines' January quotes have increased slightly, but the upside is restricted by demand expectations [5] Group 4: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Due to weak supply - demand fundamentals and cost support, prices will oscillate at the bottom [6] - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [6] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6] Group 5: Important Information - UMK announced its January 2026 manganese ore quote to China, with the South African semi - carbonate lump price at $4.15/ton - degree (up $0.05) [7] - NMT announced its January 2026 manganese ore shipping quote to China, with the Mn36% (minimum) South African semi - carbonate lump at $4.15/ton - degree (up $0.05) [7] Group 6: Related Attachments - Include graphs such as the trend of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM main contracts, monthly spreads of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, basis, spot prices, electricity prices, production costs, and production profits [13][15][18][20][23]