Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests a wait - and - see approach for both manganese - silicon and silicon - iron due to factors such as supply - demand balance and coal price trends. For manganese - silicon, with overall loose supply - demand but low inventory and stable thermal coal prices, significant price trends are unlikely. For silicon - iron, its price movement depends on energy prices, and the supply - demand contradiction is limited [43]. 3. Summary by Directory Part 1: Market Review - **Steel Inventory**: This week, the total steel inventory was 1519.74 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.13 million tons with a significantly narrowed growth rate. Among them, the steel mill inventory was 418.38 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14 million tons, and the social inventory was 1101.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.27 million tons [5]. - **Industry Policies and Data**: The National Energy Administration recently issued the "Technical Guidelines for the Preparation of Coal Mining Area Master Plans". In August, China exported 563 million tons of steel plates, a year - on - year decrease of 15.1%; from January to August, the cumulative export was 4808 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. From January to August 2025, China's export of mechanical and electrical products was 10.6 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, accounting for 60.2% of the total export value. In August 2025, China exported 760,000 cars, a year - on - year increase of 25.2%; from January to August, the cumulative export was 4.93 million, a year - on - year increase of 20.5%. In August 2025, China exported 2.89 million air conditioners, a year - on - year decrease of 22.4%; from January to August, the cumulative export was 47.78 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.0%. In August, the export of refrigerators was 7.21 million, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%; from January to August, the cumulative export was 54.86 million, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. In August, the export of washing machines was 3.28 million, a year - on - year increase of 11.2%; from January to August, the cumulative export was 23.03 million, a year - on - year increase of 6.1%. In August, the export of LCD TVs was 10.73 million, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%; from January to August, the cumulative export was 69 million, a year - on - year decrease of 2.0%. In August 2025, China's excavator output was 27,590, a year - on - year increase of 13.2%. From January to August 2025, China's excavator output was 245,556, a year - on - year increase of 17.6% [5]. - **Manganese - Silicon Futures and Spot Prices**: The report shows the price changes of manganese - silicon futures and spot in different regions, including the basis, year - on - year changes, 30 - day price changes, and weekly price changes. For example, in Inner Mongolia, the basis was 110, with a year - on - year increase of 0.53%, a 30 - day decrease of 0.35%, and a weekly increase of 0.88%, and the price was 5730 [9]. - **Silicon - Iron Futures and Spot Prices**: Although not detailed in the given text, the report also mentions the silicon - iron futures trend and basis situation [13][16]. - **Power Price Changes**: The report presents the power price changes of ferroalloy in different regions such as Ningxia, Qinghai, Yunnan, and Inner Mongolia from June 20, 2023, to August 20, 2025 [19]. Part 2: Manganese - Silicon Industry Chain Overview The report shows the price, import volume, inventory, profit estimation, output, and demand (related to steel output) of manganese ore in the manganese - silicon industry chain from 2019 to 2025 through charts, but no specific numerical data is given in the text [21][24][26][27][30][31]. Part 3: Silicon - Iron Industry Chain Overview The report shows the profit estimation, output, and demand (related to steel output) of silicon - iron in the silicon - iron industry chain from 2019 to 2025 through charts, but no specific numerical data is given in the text [34][38][40]. Part 4: Outlook - **Manganese - Silicon**: Last week, manganese - silicon futures rose, and the spot price increased slightly with a slight decline in the basis. The September bid price of the iconic steel mill was 6000 yuan/ton, slightly higher than expected, but the long - term indecision of downstream bids indicated general demand. The output of manganese - silicon decreased month - on - month, and steel production also decreased. With overall loose supply - demand but low inventory and stable thermal coal spot prices, significant price trends are unlikely, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [43]. - **Silicon - Iron**: Last week, silicon - iron futures rose, the spot price reached a high and then slightly declined, and the basis changed little. The stable thermal coal spot price and high market expectations for the recovery of thermal coal prices drove the rebound of silicon - iron. In terms of supply - demand, the output last week remained flat, but steel production decreased month - on - month, and the supply - demand contradiction was limited. According to Mysteel statistics, the national capacity utilization rate of 136 independent silicon - iron enterprises was 34.84%, unchanged from last week, and the daily average output was 16,150 tons, unchanged from last week. The trend of silicon - iron depends on energy price changes, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 20, ferroalloy futures prices declined overall. The SF main - contract closed at 5622, down 0.99%, with a decrease of 4976 in positions; the SM main - contract closed at 5836, down 1.32%, with an increase of 19417 in positions [6]. - For ferrosilicon, on the 20th, the spot price was stable to weak, with some regional spot prices dropping by 50 - 70 yuan/ton. The supply increased last week, and it's necessary to watch if the resumption trend pauses after the price decline. The demand for steel products remains high but has limited room for further growth. After the recent sharp price drop, the futures price is approaching the cost of some production areas, the high - premium risk has been largely released, and the profit - loss ratio of chasing short positions is not high, so some short positions can be reduced [6]. - For silicomanganese, on the 20th, the manganese ore spot price dropped slightly, and the silicomanganese spot price declined overall, with some regional spot prices dropping by 50 - 230 yuan/ton. The supply has accelerated its increase recently, and it's necessary to watch if the resumption rhythm changes after the price decline. The demand is high statically, but the recent apparent demand for rebar has decreased seasonally, so it's necessary to watch the demand - side risks. At the current price, the high - premium risk has been largely released, and the profit - loss ratio of chasing short positions is not high, so some short positions can be reduced [6]. - Trading strategies include partially reducing short positions, conducting cash - futures positive arbitrage when the basis is low, and selling straddle option combinations at high prices [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Futures**: The SF main - contract closed at 5622, down 56 for the day and 172 for the week, with a trading volume of 267,911 (down 104,641) and an open interest of 233,070 (down 4976). The SM main - contract closed at 5836, down 78 for the day and 238 for the week, with a trading volume of 232,175 (up 39,082) and an open interest of 282,128 (up 167,243) [4]. - **Spot**: For ferrosilicon, the spot price in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai decreased by 50 - 70 yuan/ton, while in Jiangsu it decreased by 50 yuan/ton and in Tianjin it remained unchanged. For silicomanganese, the spot price in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, Jiangsu, and Tianjin decreased by 50 - 230 yuan/ton [4]. - **Basis/Spread**: For ferrosilicon, the basis between Inner Mongolia and the main - contract increased by 6 for the day and 72 for the week; for silicomanganese, it increased by 28 for the day and 188 for the week. The SF - SM spread increased by 22 for the day and 66 for the week [4]. - **Raw Materials**: For manganese ore in Tianjin, the price of South African semi - carbonate and Gabon lump decreased by 0.1 - 0.2 yuan/ton degree, and the price of Australian lump decreased by 0.5 yuan/ton degree. The price of blue charcoal small materials in Shaanxi increased by 10 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia it increased by 35 yuan/ton [4]. Market Judgement - **Trading Strategies**: On August 20, the ferroalloy futures prices declined. For ferrosilicon, the spot price was stable to weak, the supply increased, and the demand had limited growth space. For silicomanganese, the manganese ore spot price dropped slightly, the supply increased rapidly, and the demand faced risks. Current high - premium risks have been largely released, and short positions can be partially reduced. Strategies also include cash - futures positive arbitrage and selling straddle option combinations [6]. - **Important Information**: In July 2025, the national manganese ore import volume was 2.7435 million tons, a 2.22% increase from June and a 19.61% increase from July 2024. On the 20th, the price of South African semi - carbonate in Tianjin Port was 34.5 - 35 yuan/ton degree, Gabon lump was 40 yuan/ton degree, and South32 Australian lump was 40.5 - 41 yuan/ton degree [7]. Relevant Attachments - **Price and Cost Diagrams**: Include diagrams of ferroalloy main - contract trends, basis, spot prices, electricity prices, production costs, and production profits. For example, the electricity price in most regions remained stable, and the production costs and profits of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese varied "by " region [16][18][19][22 "by "].

Group 1: Market Information - SF main contract closed at 5970, up 150 daily and 62 weekly, with trading volume of 223,621 (up 25,074) and open interest of 108,388 (up 86,379) [4] - SM main contract closed at 6074, down 36 daily and 22 weekly, with trading volume of 258,168 (down 849) and open interest of 187,130 (down 16,808) [4] - Spot prices of 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia were 5550, unchanged daily and down 50 weekly [4] - Spot prices of 6517 silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia were 5800, unchanged daily and down 50 weekly [4] - Manganese ore (Tianjin) prices: Australian lump was 41, unchanged daily and up 0.5 weekly; South African semi - carbonate was 35.2, unchanged daily and up 0.2 weekly; Gabon lump was 40.3, down 0.2 daily and up 0.3 weekly [4] Group 2: Market Analysis and Trading Strategies - On August 13, ferroalloy futures prices declined. SF main contract closed at 5794, down 0.45%, with open interest decreasing by 19,568; SM main contract closed at 6074, down 0.59%, with open interest decreasing by 10,874 [6] - For silicon - iron, spot prices were stable on the 13th. Supply increased steadily. Demand remained supported by good steel profits and high steel output. The 09 contract is approaching delivery, and it is expected to fluctuate around the warehouse - receipt cost [6] - For silicon - manganese, manganese ore spot prices were slightly weak, while silicon - manganese spot prices were slightly strong. Supply increased slightly with price hikes. Demand was supported by good steel profits. Cost was also supported by overseas mines' slightly higher September quotes. It is expected to fluctuate widely around the warehouse - receipt cost [6] - Trading strategies: Trade around the warehouse - receipt cost; conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage when the basis is low; sell straddle option combinations at high prices [7] Group 3: Important Information - A large steel mill in Hebei set the purchase price of 75B silicon - iron in August at 6030 yuan/ton, up 430 yuan/ton from July, with the quantity of 2835 tons, up 135 tons from July [8] - On the 13th, Tianjin Port's semi - carbonate Mn36.5% was quoted at 35.5 yuan/ton degree, Australian lump Mn46% at 43 yuan/ton degree, and South African medium - iron lump Mn42%Fe12% at 37 yuan/ton degree [8] Group 4: Cost and Profit - Silicon - iron production costs and profits: Inner Mongolia had a production cost of 5499 yuan/ton and a profit of 1 yuan/ton; Ningxia had a cost of 5352 yuan/ton and a profit of 148 yuan/ton; Shaanxi had a cost of 5564 yuan/ton and a loss of 114 yuan/ton; Qinghai had a cost of 5421 yuan/ton and a profit of 79 yuan/ton; Gansu had a cost of 5573 yuan/ton and a loss of 73 yuan/ton [21] - Silicon - manganese production costs and profits: Inner Mongolia had a production cost of 5842 yuan/ton and a profit of 8 yuan/ton; Ningxia had a cost of 5903 yuan/ton and a loss of 103 yuan/ton; Guangxi had a cost of 6421 yuan/ton and a loss of 521 yuan/ton; Guizhou had a cost of 6169 yuan/ton and a loss of 319 yuan/ton [24]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market sentiment for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese remains strong, with a tendency for a bullish and volatile market [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For ferrosilicon, the closing prices of contracts SF2508 and SF2509 are 5,652 and 5,668 respectively, up 162 and 160 from the previous trading day, with trading volumes of 6,857 and 307,634, and open interests of 8,912 and 193,447. For silicomanganese, the closing prices of contracts SM2508 and SM2509 are 5,906 and 5,914 respectively, up 110 from the previous trading day, with trading volumes of 1,330 and 390,134, and open interests of 11,185 and 360,025 [1]. - **Spot Data**: The price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5,300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5,680 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 39 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu is 550 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread Data**: The spot - futures spread of ferrosilicon (spot - 08 futures) is - 352 yuan/ton, down 112 yuan/ton; the spot - futures spread of silicomanganese (spot - 09 futures) is - 234 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread of ferrosilicon 2508 - 2509 is - 16 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton; the near - far month spread of silicomanganese 2508 - 2509 is - 8 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cross - variety spread of silicomanganese 2508 - ferrosilicon 2508 is 254 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton; the cross - variety spread of silicomanganese 2509 - ferrosilicon 2509 is 246 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: On July 21, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi is 5,150 - 5,250 yuan/ton (+100), in Ningxia is 5,250 - 5,350 yuan/ton (+75), in Qinghai is 5,250 - 5,300 yuan/ton (+50), in Gansu is 5,300 - 5,350 yuan/ton (up 100), and in Inner Mongolia is 5,300 - 5,350 yuan/ton (+100). The price of 75 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi is 5,650 - 5,700 yuan/ton, in Ningxia is 5,600 - 5,650 yuan/ton, in Qinghai is 5,550 - 5,600 yuan/ton, in Gansu is 5,600 - 5,650 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia is 5,600 - 5,650 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 ferrosilicon is 1,000 - 1,020 US dollars/ton, and the FOB price of 75 ferrosilicon is 1,080 - 1,110 US dollars/ton. The northern quotation of 6517 silicomanganese is 5,600 - 5,700 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation is 5,650 - 5,750 yuan/ton (+50) [2]. - **Procurement Information**: Zhongtian Iron and Steel in Changzhou has set the procurement price of 75B ferrosilicon at 5,780 yuan/ton in electronic vouchers, up 210 yuan/ton from the previous round, with a quantity of 500 tons. A steel mill in Jiangsu has a silicomanganese procurement price of 5,900 yuan/ton in electronic vouchers, with a procurement quantity of 1,000 tons; a steel mill in Jiangxi has a silicomanganese procurement price of 5,830 yuan/ton in discounted base acceptance and tax - included, with a procurement quantity of 4,000 tons [2]. - **Manganese Ore Import Data**: In June 2025, the national manganese ore import volume was 268.38 million tons, a decrease of 25.95 million tons (↓8.82%) compared with 294.33 million tons in May, and an increase of 54.01 million tons (↑25.19%) compared with 214.37 million tons in June last year. From January to June 2025, the cumulative manganese ore import volume was 1,444.49 million tons, an increase of 45.44 million tons (↑3.25%) compared with 1,399.05 million tons in the same period in 2024. In June 2025, the top five manganese ore importing countries were South Africa (158.31 million tons), Ghana (46.02 million tons), Australia (22.43 million tons), Gabon (19.08 million tons), and Brazil (7.66 million tons), accounting for 94.46% of the total import volume [4]. - **Manganese Ore Production and Sales Data**: South32's 2025 fiscal year fourth - quarter report shows that the cumulative production of Australian manganese ore in the 2025 fiscal year was 1.106 billion tons, completing 111% of the annual plan; the cumulative production of South African manganese ore was 2.151 billion tons, completing 108% of the annual plan. In the fourth quarter of the 2025 fiscal year, the production of Australian manganese ore was 467 million tons, and the sales volume was 253 million tons. The production guidance for Australian manganese ore in the 2026 fiscal year is 3.2 billion tons. The South African manganese ore production was 593 million tons, a 25% increase from the previous quarter and an 11% increase year - on - year; the sales volume was 601 million tons, a 48% increase from the previous quarter and a 9% increase year - on - year. The production guidance for South African manganese ore in the 2026 fiscal year remains unchanged at 2 billion tons [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of ferrosilicon is 1, and the trend intensity of silicomanganese is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend for both [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black metal sector (silicon manganese and ferrosilicon) is "oscillating with a bearish bias" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - This week, silicon manganese and ferrosilicon mainly rebounded following the black metal market. On the spot market, downstream replenishment increased, leading to a slight increase in the spot prices of silicon manganese and ferrosilicon. The supply - side of silicon manganese continued to recover, and steel - making demand also gradually increased with market sentiment. Manganese ore has strong short - term support, but the elasticity of steel demand is crucial for the continued improvement of silicon manganese and ferrosilicon demand. It is necessary to pay attention to the steel demand and prices in mid - to - late July. Short - term recommendation is to wait and see. The supply and demand of both silicon manganese and ferrosilicon have improved, but the sustainability of demand needs verification. In the short term, pay attention to the resistance level of 5800 for silicon manganese and 5500 for ferrosilicon [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Yesterday, the SM2509 contract closed at 5712, a 0.24% decrease compared to the previous trading day's close. The SF2509 contract closed at 5390, an 0.85% decrease compared to the previous trading day's close [1] 3.2 Important Information - This week, the total inventory of five major steel products was 13.3993 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 thousand tons. Among them, the steel mill inventory was 4.238 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.72 thousand tons; the social inventory was 9.1613 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.62 thousand tons [1] - On July 3, the domestic coking coal market was stable with a slight upward trend. This week, the average daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mine samples surveyed by Mysteel was 739 thousand tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 thousand tons, and the clean coal inventory was 4.096 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 535 thousand tons. The coal mine inventory decreased significantly, some pit - mouth coal mines slightly raised their quotes, and the online bidding was also strong, with most coal prices rising by 10 - 50 yuan/ton [1] - Mysteel's statistics on 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises showed that the national capacity utilization rate was 40.34%, an increase of 1.13% from last week; the average daily output was 25730 tons, an increase of 125 tons; the weekly demand for silicon manganese in five major steel products (70% of the total) was 126789 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.72%, and the national silicon manganese output (99% of the weekly supply) was 180110 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.49% [1] 3.3 Market Logic - This week, silicon manganese and ferrosilicon mainly rebounded following the black metal market. On the spot market, downstream replenishment increased, leading to a slight increase in the spot prices of silicon manganese and ferrosilicon. On the supply side, the production of silicon manganese continued to recover, and steel - making demand also gradually increased with market sentiment. Manganese ore has strong short - term support, but the elasticity of steel demand is crucial for the continued improvement of silicon manganese and ferrosilicon demand. It is necessary to pay attention to the steel demand and prices in mid - to - late July [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The supply and demand of both silicon manganese and ferrosilicon have improved, but the sustainability of demand needs verification. In the short term, pay attention to the resistance level of 5800 for silicon manganese and 5500 for ferrosilicon [1]

Group 1: Manganese Silicon - Manganese silicon production has slightly increased this week, but supply pressure remains due to the off-season demand [1] - Manganese silicon manufacturers' inventory has rebounded month-on-month, while warehouse receipts continue to decrease [1] - Steelmaking demand has weakened, with pig iron production slightly declining compared to last week and steel mills' profitability also decreasing [1] - Global manganese ore shipments have increased month-on-month, with significant growth in domestic arrivals, particularly from South Africa, Australia, and Ghana [1] - Manganese ore prices are hovering at low levels, which may lead to a marginal decline in future arrivals [1] - Cost pressures persist, with Ningxia entering a trial month for electricity spot settlement and coking coal prices not stabilizing [1] - The outlook for manganese silicon indicates ongoing supply pressure, with short-term price fluctuations expected to remain at the bottom [1] Group 2: Silicon Iron - Silicon iron production has slightly decreased this week due to ongoing weak demand, leading to continued declines in spot prices and increasing manufacturer losses [2] - Manufacturers' inventory has risen again due to previous restarts in Ningxia and Shaanxi [2] - Steelmaking demand has also shown a slight decline, with steel mills' profitability weakening [2] - Non-steel demand for magnesium metal remains weak, with both domestic and overseas demand being subdued [2] - Domestic price declines are providing some space for export profits, although marginal growth potential remains limited [2] - Coal costs are expected to remain weak and stable, with expectations of further reductions in electricity prices in Ningxia [2] - The outlook for silicon iron indicates a rising supply-demand imbalance, with short-term price fluctuations expected to remain at the bottom [2]

Group 1: Cost and Pricing Analysis - The price of 72 silicon iron natural blocks is reported at 5000-5200 CNY/ton, down 50-100 CNY from last week[2] - The cost of silicon iron in Qinghai is 5523 CNY/ton with a loss of 323 CNY, while in Ningxia it is 5754 CNY/ton with a loss of 454 CNY[21] - Manganese silicon prices are reported at 5450-5550 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease in the northern region[8] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The weekly supply of silicon iron is 97,300 tons, an increase of 9.45% from last week, indicating a significant supply-demand mismatch[34] - Manganese silicon weekly demand is reported at 125,793 tons, down 0.86% from the previous week, while supply is at 171,885 tons, up 1.15%[64] - The total production of silicon iron in May was 405,200 tons, with an expected increase to 440,000 tons in June due to the resumption of production in Ningxia[22] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Trends - The market is experiencing a low-level wide fluctuation in the bottoming phase, with weak rebounds but slowing declines[4] - The overall sentiment in the industry remains pessimistic due to significant losses and low demand expectations[40] - The recent dialogue between China and the U.S. has alleviated some short-term macro pressures, with a focus on the dual-coke market trends[5]

Group 1: Silicon Manganese Market Overview - The silicon manganese market experienced significant volatility in the last two trading days due to news influences [1] - Daily production of manganese silicon slightly increased this week, with recovery in Inner Mongolia and a slowdown in production cuts in Ningxia [1] - Supply pressure remains concentrated in the northern production areas, while the southern regions have limited capacity for supply compression [1] Group 2: Demand and Inventory Trends - Iron water production decreased week-on-week, while port throughput remained high, with increases primarily from water transfer [1] - In terms of finished product data, hot-rolled and rebar demand showed a week-on-week decline, while wire rod demand increased overall, maintaining a destocking pattern [1] - Cold-rolled products continue to face significant pressure, but low inventory and resilient demand for finished products suggest limited contradictions in the market [1] Group 3: Manganese Ore Supply and Pricing - Global manganese ore shipments increased this week, with floating inventory concentrated in South Africa and Ghana, indicating high future import volumes [1] - The recovery of South32's Australian mines will further boost global manganese ore supply, putting downward pressure on manganese ore prices [1] - Port traders are facing negative import profits due to overseas mines lowering forward prices, leading to feedback pressure on manganese silicon and potential supply release [1] Group 4: Future Market Outlook - Short-term supply pressure for manganese silicon is expected to persist, but increased news disturbances may influence market dynamics [1] - Despite expectations for high iron water production, the overall market for manganese silicon is likely to remain in a bottom oscillation phase, lacking strong upward trend support [1] Group 5: Silicon Iron Market Analysis - Daily production of silicon iron decreased week-on-week, continuing to alleviate supply pressure, although overall inventory remains at a medium-high level [2] - Profit margins among main production area manufacturers are diverging, with loss-making companies maintaining production cuts and downstream purchasing enthusiasm declining [2] - The non-steel demand for magnesium metal remains strong due to raw material influences, but downstream demand is cautious with limited inquiries [2] Group 6: Price Strategy and Market Expectations - The market strategy for silicon iron suggests a range-bound trading approach, with short-term support levels around 5400 [2] - The outlook indicates a significant easing of supply-demand conflicts for silicon iron, but caution is advised regarding potential mismatches in supply and demand [2] - Price fluctuations are expected to continue, with the 07 contract projected to range between 5500-5800 [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black metal sector (silicon - iron and manganese - silicon) is "oscillating with a slight upward bias" [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - The prices of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron showed different trends yesterday, with the manganese - silicon main contract SM2509 rising 3.56% and the silicon - iron main contract SF2507 rising 0.04% compared to the opening price. The supply, inventory, and consumption of five major steel products have changed, and the national power generation installed capacity has increased year - on - year. South Africa has new mineral policies. The prices of silicon - manganese alloy and silicon - iron for Hebei Iron and Steel's May procurement have different changes. Before the news is confirmed, the manganese - silicon price may oscillate, and the fundamentals are still weak. It is recommended to wait and see [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The manganese - silicon main contract SM2509 closed at 5998 yesterday, a 3.56% increase from the opening price. The silicon - iron main contract SF2507 closed at 5622, a 0.04% increase from the opening price [1] Important News - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 872.44 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.09 million tons or 0.5%. The total inventory was 1398.54 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32.12 million tons or 2.2%. The weekly consumption was 904.56 million tons, a 1.0% decrease from the previous week [1] - As of the end of April, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.49 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 15.9%. Among them, the solar power installed capacity was 0.99 billion kilowatts, a 47.7% increase, and the wind power installed capacity was 0.54 billion kilowatts, an 18.2% increase [1] - On May 20, South Africa's Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy announced that the South African Cabinet officially approved the "Critical Minerals and Metals Strategy" and decided to solicit public opinions on the "Mineral Resources Development Bill (MRDB) 2025" [1] Market Logic - Regarding manganese - silicon, the news of South Africa's restriction on manganese ore exports spread yesterday. As South Africa's manganese ore imports account for more than half of China's total imports, the manganese - silicon price rose significantly. Hebei Iron and Steel has set the procurement price of silicon - manganese alloy in May at 5850 yuan/ton (acceptance), 150 yuan/ton higher than the inquiry price and 100 yuan/ton lower than the April price. The procurement quantity is 11,600 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the previous month. For silicon - iron, Hebei Iron and Steel's procurement price of 75B silicon - iron in May is 5800 yuan/ton, 150 yuan/ton lower than in April, and the quantity is 2135 tons, an increase of 435 tons from April. After the previous shutdown and maintenance, the supply - demand of both silicon products is gradually stabilizing, and the spot market has a strong willingness to support prices [1] Trading Strategy - The short - term upper pressure for manganese - silicon is 6100. Silicon - iron has relatively strong bottom support due to the influence of manganese - silicon. The fundamentals are still considered weak. Currently, the tradable space in terms of news is relatively limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - Silicon iron shows a weak and volatile trend due to the resonance of the black - plate sector; manganese silicon shows a weak and volatile trend as Australian ore resumes shipping [2]. - The trend strength of silicon iron is 0, and that of manganese silicon is 0, both indicating a neutral trend [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Data Tracking Futures - Silicon iron 2507 closed at 5638, down 52 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 120,368 and an open interest of 218,280; silicon iron 2509 closed at 5552, down 42, with a trading volume of 44,480 and an open interest of 149,333 [1]. - Manganese silicon 2506 closed at 5722, down 62, with a trading volume of 3,148 and an open interest of 19,309; manganese silicon 2509 closed at 5778, down 66, with a trading volume of 212,202 and an open interest of 397,001 [1]. Spot - The price of silicon iron (FeSi75 - B) in Inner Mongolia was 5400 yuan/ton; the price of silicon - manganese (FeMn65Si17) in Inner Mongolia was 5630 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [1]. - The price of manganese ore (Mn44 block) was 37.5 yuan/ton - degree; the price of semi - coke (small material) in Shenmu was 620 yuan/ton [1]. Price Difference - The spot - futures price difference of silicon iron (spot - 07 futures) was - 238 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan/ton; that of manganese silicon (spot - 09 futures) was - 148 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan/ton [1]. - The near - far month price difference of silicon iron 2507 - 2509 was 86 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; that of manganese silicon 2506 - 2509 was - 56 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton [1]. - The cross - variety price difference of manganese silicon 2507 - silicon iron 2507 was 100 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton; that of manganese silicon 2509 - silicon iron 2509 was 226 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton [2]. 2. Macro and Industry News - On May 20, the price range of 72 silicon iron in different regions was 5300 - 5450 yuan/ton, and that of 75 was 5850 - 6000 yuan/ton; the FOB price of 72 was 1020 - 1050 dollars/ton, and that of 75 was 1100 - 1120 dollars/ton. The mainstream price range of 6517 silicon - manganese in the north was 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton, and in the south was 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton [1]. - Hegang set the purchase price of 75B silicon iron in May at 5800 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from April, with a quantity of 2135 tons, up 435 tons from April. Several steel mills in different regions set their silicon - manganese purchase prices and quantities in May [1]. - In April 2025, China exported 3423.245 tons of silicon - manganese, and 8362.25 tons from January to April; imported 426.324 tons in April, and 4301.178 tons from January to April [3]. - In April 2025, the national manganese ore import volume was 297.12 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 104.01 million tons (↑53.86%) and a year - on - year increase of 82.7 million tons (↑38.57%). From January to April 2025, the cumulative import volume was 883.14 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 59.41 million tons (↓6.30%) [3]. - The top five manganese ore importing countries in April 2025 were South Africa (145.65 million tons), Gabon (69.87 million tons), Ghana (55.40 million tons), Cote d'Ivoire (10.60 million tons), and Australia (6.30 million tons), accounting for 96.87% of the total import volume [3]. - South32 announced the resumption of Australian manganese ore export sales from its Groote Eylandt Mining Company (GEMCO). The first batch of manganese ore is being loaded and is expected to leave the newly rebuilt terminal in the next few days. Export sales are expected to increase in the June quarter of 2025 and normalize in fiscal year 26 [4]. - NMT announced the loading price of manganese ore for China in June 2025. The price of South African lump ore with a minimum Mn content of 36% is 3.85 dollars/ton - degree, and that of 35% is 3.75 dollars/ton - degree, unchanged from last month [4].