研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 12 月 17 日 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号： F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | | | | 期 货 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 日变动 | 收盘价 | | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5546 | 64 | 112 | 270107 | -12241 | 257884 | -6534 | | SM主力合约 | 5758 | 22 | 34 | 130766 | -29544 | 276107 | -2682 | | | | | 现 货 | | | | | | 硅铁 现货价格 日变动 | | | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5280 | 0 | 80 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5540 | 0 | 20 | | 72%FeSi宁夏 | 52 ...

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 12 月 9 日 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号： F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | | | | 期 货 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5462 | 18 | 14 | 245113 | -169367 | 267182 | 3413 | | SM主力合约 | 5732 | -4 | 4 | 259055 | -6012 | 282351 | 11069 | | | | | | 现 货 | | | | | 硅铁 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5200 | -30 | -50 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5510 | -20 | -20 ...

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 12 月 8 日 铁合金日报 期货从业证号： F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | | | | 期货 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5444 | -30 | -22 | 414480 | 10957 | 262736 | 4446 | | SM主力合约 | 5736 | -22 | -2 | 265067 | 102578 | 271282 | 7356 | | | | | 现货 | | | | | | 硅铁 现货价格 | | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5230 | -20 | -20 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5530 | 0 | 0 | | 72%FeSi宁夏 | 5200 ...

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 12 月 4 日 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | 期 货 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5546 | 100 | 156 | 306562 | 75654 | 259817 | -483 | | SM主力合约 | 5796 | 50 | 168 | 290333 | 187890 | 252039 | 52021 | | 现 货 | | | | | | | | | 硅铁 现货价格 | | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5250 | 0 | 50 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5530 | 0 | 30 | | 72%FeSi宁夏 | 5200 | 0 | 0 | 硅锰6517宁夏 | 552 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 25, ferroalloy futures prices showed mixed trends. The silicon ferro (SF) main contract closed at 5448, down 0.15%, with an increase of 9552 in open interest; the manganese silicon (SM) main contract closed at 5636, up 0.11%, with a decrease of 13172 in open interest [5]. - For silicon ferro, the spot price was generally stable on the 25th. The supply is decreasing slightly as alloy plants enter the maintenance stage. Demand is expected to decline as future hot metal production is likely to fall. Costs are generally stable with a slight upward trend. Overall, with both supply and demand decreasing and cost support, it is recommended to operate with a bottom - oscillation mindset [5]. - For manganese silicon, manganese ore spot prices were stable with a slight upward trend on the 25th, and manganese silicon spot prices were generally stable. Supply is also in a downward trend with some manufacturers in Ningxia adding maintenance and shutdowns. Demand is expected to decline. Costs are rising as port inventories of manganese ore are at a low level. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom under the game of weak supply - demand and cost support [5]. - Unilateral: With a weak supply - demand pattern, low valuation, and cost support, it is expected to oscillate at the bottom; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information 3.1.1 Futures | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Weekly Change | Trading Volume | Daily Change | Open Interest | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SF Main Contract | 5448 | - 8 | - 74 | 316787 | - 44115 | 208059 | 9552 | | SM Main Contract | 5636 | 6 | - 44 | 120736 | - 81677 | 384812 | - 13172 | [2] 3.1.2 Spot - Silicon ferro: Spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Jiangsu, and Tianjin were stable on the 25th, with weekly decreases ranging from 20 to 200 yuan/ton [2]. - Manganese silicon: Spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, Jiangsu, and Tianjin were stable on the 25th, with weekly decreases ranging from 20 to 80 yuan/ton [2]. 3.1.3 Basis/Spread - Silicon ferro: The basis between Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai and the main contract increased, and the spread between Jiangsu and Inner Mongolia increased by 20 yuan/ton week - on - week. The SF - SM spread decreased by 14 yuan/ton on the day and 30 yuan/ton week - on - week [2]. - Manganese silicon: The basis between Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi and the main contract decreased, and the spread between Guangxi and Inner Mongolia increased by 10 yuan/ton week - on - week [2]. 3.1.4 Raw Materials - Manganese ore (Tianjin): The price of Gabon lump increased by 0.3 yuan/ton degree on the day and 0.5 yuan/ton degree week - on - week, while the prices of Australian lump and South African semi - carbonate were stable [2]. - Blue charcoal small materials: The prices in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia were stable [2]. 3.2 Market Judgement 3.2.1 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Operate with a bottom - oscillation mindset; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6]. 3.2.2 Important Information - On the 25th, the quotation of semi - carbonate Mn36.81% at Tianjin Port was 34.5 yuan/ton degree, South African high - iron Mn33.77%Fe21.14% with a particle size of 6 - 100mm was quoted at 30 yuan/ton degree, and Gabon lump Mn47% was quoted at 42 yuan/ton degree [7]. - A silicon - manganese plant in Ningxia reduced production of 1 silicon - manganese 6517 furnace [7]. 3.3 Related Attachments - Figures include the trend of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM on the disk, the monthly spread of silicon ferro and manganese silicon, the basis of silicon ferro and manganese silicon, spot prices of silicon ferro and manganese silicon, ferroalloy electricity prices, and cost - profit charts of silicon ferro and manganese silicon [9][11][13][15][17][23].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - On November 24, ferroalloy futures prices showed mixed trends. For ferrosilicon, with supply and demand both decreasing and cost support, and its low valuation, short - selling is not advisable. For silicomanganese, in the game between weak supply - demand and cost support, it is expected to oscillate at the bottom. The trading strategies are: in the single - side market, expect bottom - range oscillation; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [5][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Information - **Futures**: The closing price of the SF main contract was 5456, down 16 (daily) and 206 (weekly), with a trading volume of 360,902 (up 25,320 daily) and an open interest of 205,123 (up 2936 daily). The SM main contract closed at 5630, up 24 (daily) and down 162 (weekly), with a trading volume of 202,413 (up 64,380 daily) and an open interest of 397,984 (down 41,457 daily) [2] - **Spot**: Ferrosilicon spot prices showed mixed trends on the 24th, with Inner Mongolia's spot price down 50 yuan/ton and Jiangsu's up 120 yuan/ton. Silicomanganese spot prices also showed mixed trends, with Ningxia's spot price up 20 yuan/ton and Guangxi's down 20 yuan/ton. Manganese ore spot prices in Tianjin were stable with a slight increase [2][5] - **Basis/Spread**: Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese basis and spreads showed different daily and weekly changes. The SF - SM spread was - 174, down 40 (daily) and 44 (weekly) [2] - **Raw Materials**: Manganese ore prices in Tianjin showed a slight increase, and the prices of semi - coke small materials in various regions remained stable [2] Market Judgement - **Trading Strategies** - Single - side: Due to the weak supply - demand pattern, low valuation, and cost support, expect bottom - range oscillation [6] - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [6] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6] - **Important Information** - On the 24th, the quotes of manganese ore in Tianjin Port showed different prices for different grades [7] - In October 2025, the crude steel output of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association statistics was 143.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.9% [7]

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 11 月 20 日 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 | | | | 期 货 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5446 | -58 | -134 | 315918 | 83681 | 165626 | 22700 | | SM主力合约 | 5614 | -28 | -142 | 148657 | -63593 | 438614 | 2355 | | | | | | 现 货 | | | | | 硅铁 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5280 | 0 | 0 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5520 | -80 | -80 | | 72%FeSi宁夏 | 5250 | 0 | 0 | 硅锰6517宁夏 | 5480 | 0 | -70 | | 72%FeSi青海 | 5300 ...

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 11 月 19 日 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号： F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn 数据来源：银河期货、Mysteel 1/ 6 | 第一部分 | | | | 市场信息 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5504 | -18 | -48 | 232237 | -101565 | 148169 | 17457 | | SM主力合约 | 5642 | -38 | -120 | 212250 | -183485 | 436259 | 31861 | | 现 货 | | | | | | | | | 硅铁 现货价格 | | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 52 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: November 19, 2025 - Author: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Ferroalloys face the fundamental situation of high inventory and weak demand. Although the cost center of coking coal may decline due to supply guarantee, the downside space for ferroalloys is limited, and they are expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. Summary by Directory Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ferrosilicon is 5,300 - 6,000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.65% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 40.6%. For silicomanganese, the price range is also 5,300 - 6,000, with a current volatility of 13.22% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 17.9% [3]. Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, enterprises with long positions can short - sell SF2601 and SM2601 ferroalloy futures at a 15% hedging ratio. The recommended entry range is 6,200 - 6,250 for SF and 6,400 - 6,500 for SM to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement inventory is low and enterprises want to purchase based on orders, those with short positions can buy SF2601 and SM2601 ferroalloy futures at a 25% hedging ratio. The recommended entry range is 5,200 - 5,300 for SF and 5,300 - 5,400 for SM to lock in procurement costs in advance [3]. Market Review - Recently, ferroalloys rebounded slightly due to environmental inspection news, rising on reduced positions. However, the high - inventory situation remains unchanged. Today, ferroalloys followed coking coal and weakened in a fluctuating manner. The view of a weakly - fluctuating market for ferroalloys persists [4]. Core Logic - The steel mill profitability rate has fallen below 40%, leading to a slight decline in hot metal production, which is expected to continue. The demand for ferroalloys is expected to decline. The inventory of the five major steel products has increased seasonally, and ferroalloys also have high inventory. The production profit of ferroalloys is gradually decreasing, and there is little expectation for continued production increases. Downstream demand is entering the off - season, and the inventory of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese enterprises is at the highest level in the past 5 years. Silicomanganese enterprise inventory increased by 10.3% month - on - month, and ferrosilicon enterprise inventory increased by 3.3% month - on - month. This week, ferrosilicon production started to decrease, and silicomanganese production has been decreasing for multiple weeks. Reducing inventory may rely on production cuts [5]. Factors Analysis - **Positive Factors**: Ferrosilicon production decreased by 4.38% week - on - week this week, and silicomanganese continued its production - reduction trend. In October, the production of magnesium ingots increased by 21.96% month - on - month [8]. - **Negative Factors**: The steel market failed to meet expectations during the peak season, and the steel mill profitability rate fell below 40%, increasing the negative feedback pressure. The coil and plate segment still has high inventory and high production. Although production decreased month - on - month, it is still at the highest level in the past 5 years. Consumption has no driving force, and inventory has increased seasonally. Recently, Thailand launched an anti - dumping investigation on domestic steel plates. Silicomanganese enterprise inventory increased by 10.3% month - on - month, and ferrosilicon enterprise inventory increased by 3.3% month - on - month, indicating high inventory pressure [9][11]. Daily Data - **Ferrosilicon**: On November 19, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 38, and the basis difference between 01 - 05 contracts was 2. Spot prices in different regions remained stable. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 47 compared to the previous day [9]. - **Silicomanganese**: On November 19, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 308, and the basis difference between 01 - 05 contracts was - 58. Spot prices in some regions decreased slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 119 compared to the previous day [10][12].

Group 1: Market Information - SF主力合约收盘价5522，日变动-140，周变动-40，成交量333802，日变化38430，持仓量132798，日变化15371；SM主力合约收盘价5680，日变动-112，周变动-84，成交量395735，日变化188526，持仓量404398，日变化45390 [2] - 硅铁现货价格方面，72%FeSi内蒙5280，日变动0，周变动-50；72%FeSi宁夏5250，日变动0，周变动-30等；锰硅现货价格方面，硅锰6517内蒙5600，日变动0，周变动-20；硅锰6517宁夏5500，日变动-50，周变动-60等 [2] - 硅铁基差/价差方面，内蒙-主力-242，日变动140，周变动-10；宁夏-主力-272，日变动140，周变动10等；锰硅基差/价差方面，内蒙-主力-80，日变动112，周变动64；宁夏-主力-180，日变动62，周变动24等 [2] - 锰矿（天津）方面，澳块当日39.7，日变动0，周变动0.5；南非半碳酸当日34.3，日变动0，周变动0等；兰炭小料方面，陕西当日820，日变动0，周变动0；宁夏当日920，日变动0，周变动0等 [2] Group 2: Market Analysis - 11月18日，铁合金期货价格整体下跌，硅铁主力合约5474，下跌1.65%，持仓增加4626手；锰硅主力合约收盘5680，下跌1.93%，持仓增加45390手 [5] - 硅铁基本面供需双弱，成本端有所支撑，18日受焦煤等整体黑色金属大跌拖累跟随调整，但自身估值水平不高，不宜追空 [5] - 锰硅在供需双弱和成本支撑背景下，预计底部震荡为主 [5] - 单边策略预计底部震荡；套利策略观望；期权策略为卖出虚值跨式期权组合 [6] - 青海某合金厂计划17日晚间停2台硅铁炉，剩余2台转产硅钡，累计减少硅铁日产100吨；18日天津港澳块Mn42%Fe3.6%报价40元/吨度，半碳酸Mn37%报价35元/吨度，澳籽Mn40.85%Fe7.14%报价35.6元/吨度 [7] Group 3: Related Charts - 包含铁合金主力合约走势回顾、盘面主力合约sf - sm价差、硅铁月间价差、锰硅月间价差、硅铁基差（主力合约 - 内蒙）、锰硅基差（主力合约 - 内蒙）、硅锰现货价格、内蒙硅锰现货价格、铁合金电价、硅铁成本与利润、硅锰成本与利润、硅铁生产成本、硅锰生产成本、硅铁生产利润、硅锰生产利润等图表 [8][9][11][13] - 硅铁生产成本方面，内蒙5450元/吨，宁夏5631元/吨等；硅铁生产利润方面，内蒙-250元/吨，宁夏-481元/吨等；硅锰生产成本方面，内蒙5742元/吨，宁夏5851元/吨等；硅锰生产利润方面，内蒙-142元/吨，宁夏-291元/吨等 [18][21]