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银河期货铁合金日报-20250729
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 12:40
Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a Black Metal R & D report on ferroalloys dated July 29, 2025 [2] - The research analyst is Zhou Tao, with relevant qualification numbers and contact information provided [3] Group 2: Market Information Futures - SF main contract closed at 6110, up 270 daily and 236 weekly, with trading volume of 726,721 (down 491,602) and open interest of 196,312 (up 769) [4] - SM main contract closed at 6212, up 184 daily and 200 weekly, with trading volume of 1,009,206 (down 238,021) and open interest of 347,380 (down 6,026) [4] Spot - For ferrosilicon, 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and some other regions had price increases, with Inner Mongolia and Ningxia at 5,650 (up 50 daily and 250 weekly), and Jiangsu and Tianjin at 5,850 [4] - For silicomanganese, 6517 silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and other regions also saw price hikes, with Inner Mongolia at 5,800 (up 100 daily and 100 weekly), and Jiangsu at 6,100 [4] Basis/Spread - For ferrosilicon, Inner Mongolia - main had a basis of -460 (down 220 daily and up 14 weekly), and SF - SM spread was -102 (up 86 daily and 36 weekly) [4] - For silicomanganese, Inner Mongolia - main had a basis of -412 (down 84 daily and 100 weekly), and Guangxi - Inner Mongolia spread was 50 (unchanged daily and up 50 weekly) [4] Raw Materials - For manganese ore in Tianjin, Australian lump was 40 (unchanged daily and up 0.3 weekly), South African semi - carbonate was 34.8 (unchanged daily and up 0.1 weekly), and Gabon lump was 40 (up 0.5 daily and 0.7 weekly) [4] - For semi - coke small pieces, prices in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [4] Group 3: Market Judgment Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term strength, but due to recent sharp and volatile market, no chasing of rising prices [7] - Arbitrage: Close the long ferrosilicon and short silicomanganese position, and consider cash - and - carry arbitrage when the basis is low [7] - Options: Hold off [7] Market Analysis - Ferrosilicon: On July 29, spot prices were firm with slight increases in some regions. Supply increased slightly with rising prices. Demand was supported by high steel mill output due to good steel profits. Market sentiment was boosted by the rebound of coking coal, but it's not advisable to chase the rising prices [6] - Silicomanganese: On July 29, manganese ore and silicomanganese spot prices were firm. Supply also increased slightly with price increases. Demand was supported by good steel profits, and the cost of port manganese ore was relatively strong. The fundamentals were healthy, but due to market volatility, no chasing of rising prices [6] Important Information - On July 29, Tianjin Port had semi - carbonate at 35.5 yuan/ton degree, Gabon lump at 40.5 - 41 yuan/ton degree, CML Australian lump at 41.5 - 42 yuan/ton degree, and South32 Australian lump at 40 - 40.5 yuan/ton degree [8] - On July 29, Hebei steel mills raised the purchase price of coke, with wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton [8] Group 4: Related Attachments Price Charts - There are charts showing the trend of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread of main contracts SF - SM, the monthly spread of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the basis of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese (main contract - Inner Mongolia), and the spot prices of silicomanganese and Inner Mongolia silicomanganese [11][15][16] Cost and Profit Charts - There are charts of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese cost and profit, including production costs and profits in different regions such as Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi [19][22] - For ferrosilicon, production costs in Inner Mongolia were 5,421 with a profit of 79, and in Ningxia were 5,274 with a profit of 226 [19] - For silicomanganese, production costs in Inner Mongolia were 5,747 with a profit of 3, and in Guangxi were 6,241 with a loss of 521 [22]