研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2026 年 2 月 4 日 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号： F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | 期 货 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5654 | 34 | 22 | 93117 | -10574 | 102056 | -12529 | | SM主力合约 | 5868 | 32 | 36 | 118851 | -16005 | 354221 | -6808 | | 现 货 | | | | | | | | | 硅铁 现货价格 | | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5420 | 0 | 70 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5650 | -30 | -20 | ...

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2026 年 2 月 3 日 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号： F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | | | | 期 货 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5620 | -4 | 16 | 103691 | -27839 | 110111 | -8055 | | SM主力合约 | 5836 | 2 | 18 | 134856 | -51389 | 361029 | 948 | | | | | | 现 货 | | | | | 硅铁 现货价格 | | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5420 | 0 | 70 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5680 | 0 | 0 | | 72%Fe ...

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2026 年 1 月 29 日 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 期货从业证号： F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | 期 货 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5736 | 104 | 126 | 228839 | 106016 | 172651 | -33983 | | SM主力合约 | 5926 | 94 | 112 | 256191 | 116337 | 362400 | -12587 | | 现 货 | | | | | | | | | 硅铁 现货价格 | | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5400 | 50 | 30 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5670 | 0 | -10 | | ...

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2026 年 1 月 27 日 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号： F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | 期 货 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5604 | -24 | 52 | 112403 | -35305 | 196604 | -10700 | | SM主力合约 | 5818 | -10 | 20 | 103945 | -28433 | 371448 | 11862 | | 现 货 | | | | | | | | | 硅铁 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5350 | -50 | 30 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5680 | 0 | 0 ...

黑色金属日报 2026 年 1 月 22 日 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号： F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | 期 货 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 收盘价 | | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 5610 | | 54 | 0 | 108864 | -21998 | 244000 | -11689 | | SM主力合约 5814 | | 28 | -56 | 141601 | 6241 | 356074 | 23782 | | 现 货 | | | | | | | | | 硅铁 现货价格 | | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5370 | 20 | -80 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5680 | 0 | -70 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 20, ferroalloy futures prices showed mixed trends. The silicon - iron (SF) main contract closed at 5552, up 0.07% with an increase of 15,954 in open interest; the manganese - silicon (SM) main contract closed at 5760, down 0.83% with a decrease of 13,668 in open interest [5] - The valuation of ferroalloys is not high, and cost support is relatively strong. They can be considered as long - positions when the price is low. For arbitrage, it's recommended to wait and see, and for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Market**: - SF main contract: closed at 5552, daily change of 4, weekly change of - 130, trading volume of 148,515 (daily increase of 33,826), open interest of 229,601 (daily increase of 15,954) - SM main contract: closed at 5798, daily change of - 10, weekly change of - 118, trading volume of 140,554 (daily increase of 17,264), open interest of 215,166 (daily decrease of 13,668) [3] - **Spot Market**: - Silicon - iron: 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia was priced at 5320, down 50 daily and 130 weekly; in Ningxia at 5320, unchanged daily and down 100 weekly; in Qinghai at 5300, down 50 daily and 50 weekly etc. - Manganese - silicon: 6517 in Inner Mongolia was priced at 5680, down 20 daily and 70 weekly; in Ningxia at 5570, down 30 daily and 80 weekly etc. [3] - **Basis/Spread**: - Silicon - iron: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 232, daily change of - 54, weekly change of 0 etc. - Manganese - silicon: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 118, daily change of - 10, weekly change of 48 etc. - SF - SM spread was - 246, daily change of 14, weekly change of - 12 [3] - **Raw Materials**: - Manganese ore (Tianjin): Australian lump was 41.8, unchanged daily and down 0.2 weekly; South African semi - carbonate was 36.2, down 0.1 daily, unchanged weekly etc. - Blue charcoal small materials: in Shaanxi it was 770, unchanged daily and weekly; in Ningxia it was 840, unchanged daily and weekly; in Inner Mongolia it was 750, unchanged daily and weekly [3] 3.2 Market Judgement - **Trading Strategy**: - **Silicon - iron**: On the 20th, the spot price was stable to weak, with some regions seeing a 50 yuan/ton drop. In the short - term, the operating rate decreased slightly, and there is an expectation of future supply decline due to differential electricity prices in Shaanxi. Although there was an accidental production cut at a steel mill in Inner Mongolia, the impact on the national scope was limited. Recently, both the apparent demand and production of steel increased, providing short - term support for raw material demand. The electricity price in the main production areas was stable to weak recently, and the cooling of the commodity market sentiment dragged down silicon - iron, but its valuation is not high, so it can be a long - position when the price is low [5] - **Manganese - silicon**: On the 20th, the manganese ore spot was stable to weak, with the semi - carbonate in Tianjin Port dropping 0.1 yuan/ton degree, and the manganese - silicon spot in some regions dropping 20 - 50 yuan/ton. The operating rate of sample enterprises decreased slightly, but some new production capacities were put into operation at the end of 2025, so the overall supply was stable. Similar to silicon - iron, the apparent demand and production of steel increased, providing short - term support for raw material demand. The manganese ore port inventory continued to decline, the port spot was slightly adjusted but generally firm, and overseas mine quotes continued to rise. The valuation of manganese - silicon is not high, and the cost support is strong, so it can also be a long - position when the price is low [5] - **Overall Strategy**: For single - side trading, ferroalloys can be long - positions when the price is low; for arbitrage, wait and see; for options, sell out - of - the - money put options [6] - **Important Information**: - On the 20th, the price of semi - carbonate in Tianjin Port (Mn37.19%Fe4.32%) was 36.5 yuan/ton degree, Gabon lump (Mn47%) was 43.5 yuan/ton degree, Australian lump (Mn47%) was 43.5 yuan/ton degree, and Australian seed (Mn41.3%Fe 7.4%) was 38.5 yuan/ton degree [7] - In December 2025, the national manganese ore import volume was 3.2742 million tons, a 21.53% increase from November and a 28.27% increase from December of the previous year [7] 3.3 Related Attachments - The content mainly includes various charts such as the trend of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM main contracts, monthly spreads of SF and SM, basis of SF and SM, spot prices of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron, electricity prices for ferroalloys, production costs and profits of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese [8][10][12][14][17]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 14, ferroalloy futures prices rose overall. The silicon ferro (SF) main contract closed at 5690, up 0.14%, with a decrease of 4167 in open interest; the manganese ferro (SM) main contract closed at 5920, up 0.07%, with a decrease of 12348 in open interest [6]. - For SF, the spot price was stable on the 14th. The short - term operating rate rebounded slightly, but due to differential electricity prices in Shaanxi, there is an expectation of supply contraction in the future. Demand is in a recovery cycle for hot metal, but steel inventory accumulation may limit the recovery space of blast furnaces. With strong cost support and supply contraction expectation, it is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term [6]. - For SM, manganese ore spot was slightly bullish on the 14th, while SM spot was slightly bearish. The operating rate of sample enterprises decreased slightly, and new production capacity was put into operation at the end of the year, with overall stable supply. In January, blast furnaces are expected to have a phased recovery, and pre - Spring Festival restocking demand will support raw material demand. With the decline of manganese ore port inventory and rising overseas mine quotes, SM is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term under cost - push [6]. - Unilateral trading: Expectations of marginal improvement in supply - demand and cost - push lead to a short - term volatile and bullish trend; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddles [7]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the SF main contract was 5690, with a daily increase of 8 and a weekly decrease of 170, trading volume of 150108 (a daily decrease of 12853), and open interest of 220837 (a daily decrease of 4167). The closing price of the SM main contract was 5920, with a daily increase of 4 and a weekly decrease of 80, trading volume of 143373 (a daily increase of 224), and open interest of 248641 (a daily decrease of 12348) [3]. - **Spot Market**: For SF, the spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Jiangsu, and Tianjin were 5450, 5420, 5350, 5750, and 5850 respectively, with different weekly changes. For SM, the spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, Jiangsu, and Tianjin were 5750, 5630, 5850, 5820, and 5750 respectively, with different weekly changes [3]. - **Basis/Spread**: The basis and spread of SF and SM in different regions showed various daily and weekly changes. The SF - SM spread was - 230, with a daily increase of 4 and a weekly decrease of 90 [3]. - **Raw Materials**: For manganese ore in Tianjin, the prices of Australian lump, South African semi - carbonate, and Gabonese lump had different daily and weekly changes. The prices of blue charcoal small pieces in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia were stable [3]. Market Judgement - **Trading Strategy**: Due to the expectations of marginal improvement in supply - demand and cost - push, the short - term trend is volatile and bullish. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see, and for options, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money straddles [7]. - **Important Information**: UMK announced the February 2026 manganese ore quotation to China, with the price of Mn36% South African lump at 4.32 US dollars per ton - degree, a month - on - month increase of 0.17 US dollars per ton - degree. In December 2025, China's steel exports were 11.301 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.321 million tons or 13.2%; the cumulative steel exports from January to December were 119.019 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% [8]. Related Attachments - The report includes multiple charts showing the trends of ferroalloy main contracts, spreads, basis, spot prices, electricity prices, production costs, and production profits [13][14][15][16][18][19][21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 13th, ferroalloy futures prices declined overall. The silicon - iron (SF) main contract closed at 5682, down 0.28%, with a decrease of 3885 in positions; the manganese - silicon (SM) main contract closed at 5916, down 0.24%, with an increase of 3675 in positions [6]. - For silicon - iron, the spot price was stable on the 13th. The supply side may contract in the future due to the need for technological transformation in Shaanxi enterprises. The demand side has limited future blast - furnace resumption space. With strong cost support and supply contraction expectations, it is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term [6]. - For manganese - silicon, on the 13th, manganese ore and manganese - silicon spot prices were moderately strong. The supply side is generally stable, and the demand side is supported by blast - furnace resumption and pre - Spring Festival restocking. Driven by cost, it is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term [6]. - For trading strategies, the unilateral strategy is to be volatile and bullish in the short term due to the expected improvement in supply - demand and cost push; the arbitrage strategy is to wait and see; the option strategy is to sell out - of - the - money straddles [7]. Group 3: Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Futures Data**: The SF main contract closed at 5682, down 16 for the day and 94 for the week, with a trading volume of 162,961 (down 38,469) and an open interest of 224,722 (down 3885). The SM main contract closed at 5916, down 14 for the day and 2 for the week, with a trading volume of 143,149 (down 1617) and an open interest of 260,989 (up 3675) [3]. - **Spot Data**: For silicon - iron, the spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Jiangsu, and Tianjin were 5450, 5420, 5350, 5750, and 5850 respectively, with different weekly changes. For manganese - silicon, the spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, Jiangsu, and Tianjin were 5750, 5650, 5850, 5820, and 5750 respectively, with different weekly changes [3]. - **Basis/Spread Data**: The basis and spread data of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon showed different daily and weekly changes. For example, the Inner Mongolia - main contract basis of silicon - iron was - 232, up 16 for the day and 184 for the week [3]. - **Raw Material Data**: For manganese ore in Tianjin, the prices of Australian lump, South African semi - carbonate, and Gabon lump had different daily and weekly changes. The prices of blue charcoal small materials in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia were stable [3]. Market Judgement - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Volatile and bullish in the short term; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Sell out - of - the - money straddles [7]. - **Important Information**: On the 13th, the price quotes of manganese ore in Tianjin Port changed. A large steel group in Hebei increased its silicon - manganese procurement in January compared to December 2025 [8][9]. Relevant Attachments - The report includes various graphs such as the price trends of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM contracts, the monthly spreads of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon, the basis of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon, the spot prices of silicon - manganese, the electricity prices of ferroalloys, the production costs and profits of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon [10][13][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 12th, ferroalloy futures prices rose overall. The silicon - iron (SF) main contract closed at 5698, up 1.17% with a decrease of 8483 in positions. The manganese - silicon (SM) main contract closed at 5930, up 0.44% with an increase of 4207 in positions [6]. - For silicon - iron, the spot price was stable with a slight upward trend on the 12th, rising 50 yuan/ton in some regions. The short - term supply start - up rate rebounded slightly, but due to the differential electricity price in Shaanxi, there is an expectation of supply contraction in the future. The demand side shows that although iron - making is in the resumption cycle, the accumulation of steel inventory may restrict the resumption space of blast furnaces. With stable electricity prices in the main production areas, and considering the warming of the commodity market sentiment and the supply contraction expectation, it is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [6]. - For manganese - silicon, the manganese ore spot was stable with a slight upward trend on the 12th, and the manganese - silicon spot rose by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. The start - up rate of sample enterprises decreased slightly, and new production capacity was put into operation at the end of the year, keeping the supply stable. The demand side is supported by the expected resumption of blast furnaces in January and the pre - Spring Festival restocking demand. With the continuous decline of manganese ore port inventory and the rising overseas mine quotes, the cost push makes manganese - silicon slightly stronger in the short - term [6]. - The unilateral trading strategy is that due to the expected improvement in supply and demand and cost push, it will be slightly stronger in the short - term; the arbitrage strategy is to wait and see; the option strategy is to sell out - of - the - money straddles [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Market** - SF main contract: closed at 5698, daily change +66, weekly change +74, trading volume 201430 (daily change - 28502), open interest 233205 (daily change - 8483) [3]. - SM main contract: closed at 5930, daily change +26, weekly change +56, trading volume 144766 (daily change - 27388), open interest 257314 (daily change +4207) [3]. - **Spot Market** - Silicon - iron: 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia was 5450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton daily and 90 yuan/ton weekly; in Ningxia it was 5420 yuan/ton, stable daily and up 50 yuan/ton weekly; in Qinghai it was 5350 yuan/ton, stable daily and up 50 yuan/ton weekly; in Jiangsu it was 5750 yuan/ton, stable daily and weekly; in Tianjin it was 5850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton daily and stable weekly [3]. - Manganese - silicon: 6517 manganese - silicon in Inner Mongolia was 5700 yuan/ton, stable daily and up 50 yuan/ton weekly; in Ningxia it was 5650 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton daily and 80 yuan/ton weekly; in Guangxi it was 5800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton daily and 70 yuan/ton weekly; in Jiangsu it was 5820 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton daily and 40 yuan/ton weekly; in Tianjin it was 5750 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton daily and 20 yuan/ton weekly [3]. - **Basis/Spread** - Silicon - iron: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 248, daily change - 16, weekly change +16; Ningxia - main contract basis was - 278, daily change - 66, weekly change - 24; Qinghai - main contract basis was - 348, daily change - 66, weekly change - 24; Jiangsu - Inner Mongolia spread was 300, daily change - 50, weekly change - 90; SF - SM spread was - 232, daily change +40, weekly change +18 [3]. - Manganese - silicon: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 230, daily change - 26, weekly change - 6; Ningxia - main contract basis was - 280, daily change - 6, weekly change +24; Guangxi - main contract basis was - 130, daily change +24, weekly change +14; Guangxi - Inner Mongolia spread was 100, daily change +50, weekly change +20 [3]. - **Raw Materials** - Manganese ore (Tianjin): Australian lump was 42 yuan/ton - degree, stable daily and up 0.3 yuan/ton - degree weekly; South African semi - carbonate was 36 yuan/ton - degree, up 0.2 yuan/ton - degree daily and 0.8 yuan/ton - degree weekly; Gabonese lump was 43 yuan/ton - degree, stable daily and up 0.2 yuan/ton - degree weekly [3]. - Blue charcoal small pieces: in Shaanxi it was 770 yuan/ton, stable daily and weekly; in Ningxia it was 840 yuan/ton, stable daily and weekly; in Inner Mongolia it was 750 yuan/ton, stable daily and weekly [3]. 3.2 Market Judgement - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Slightly stronger in the short - term due to the expected marginal improvement of supply - demand and cost push [7]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [7]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddles [7]. - **Important Information** - South32's quotation for South African semi - carbonate lump in February 2026 shipments to China was 4.4 US dollars/ton - degree (up 0.25), and Australian lump was 5.1 US dollars/ton - degree (up 0.25) [8]. - Jupiter's announced loading price of manganese ore to China in February 2026: Mn36.5% South African semi - carbonate lump was 4.32 US dollars/ton - degree (up 0.17) [8]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple figures including the trend of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM main contracts, monthly spreads of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon, basis of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon, spot prices of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron, ferroalloy electricity prices, production costs and profits of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon [9][11][13] etc.

Group 1: Report Overview - Issue date: January 8, 2026 [1] - Report type: Black Metal Daily, Ferroalloy Daily Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided Group 3: Core View - The overall market sentiment has cooled down, and both silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy are expected to fluctuate in the short term [5] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, sell out - of - the - money straddle options, and expect short - term fluctuations for unilateral trading [6] Group 4: Market Information Futures - SF主力合约 closed at 5668, down 192 for the day and 82 for the week, with a trading volume of 276442 (down 52657) and an open interest of 245565 (down 12151) [3] - SM主力合约 closed at 5892, down 108 for the day and 50 for the week, with a trading volume of 275888 (down 41199) and an open interest of 264806 (down 19518) [3] Spot - Silicon ferroalloy spot prices in some regions increased by up to 20 yuan/ton, while manganese ferroalloy spot prices increased by 30 - 100 yuan/ton [3][5] Basis/Spread - Silicon ferroalloy basis and manganese ferroalloy basis showed different daily and weekly changes in different regions [3] - The SF - SM spread was - 224, down 84 for the day and 32 for the week [3] Raw Materials - Manganese ore prices in Tianjin Port showed a slight increase, while the prices of semi - coke small materials remained stable [3][5] Group 5: Market Judgement Silicon Ferroalloy - Supply: There is an expectation of supply contraction in the future due to the rumored differential electricity price policy in Shaanxi [5] - Demand: Steel production has increased, but inventory accumulation may limit future blast furnace复产 [5] - Cost: The electricity price in the main production areas has been stable recently [5] - Outlook: Short - term fluctuations are expected as the event - driven factor has ended [5] Manganese Ferroalloy - Supply: Some new production capacities were put into operation at the end of the year, leading to a slight increase in supply [5] - Demand: Blast furnace复产 in January and pre - Spring Festival restocking demand will support raw material demand [5] - Cost: Manganese ore port inventory remains low, and port spot prices are strong [5] - Outlook: Short - term fluctuations are expected due to cost support [5] Group 6: Important Information - On the 8th, the prices of manganese ore in Tianjin Port were reported, such as semi - carbonate Mn36.6%Fe4.6% at 36, Gabon block Mn47% at 43.5, etc [7] - US private sector employment increased by 41,000 in December, but was lower than expected [7] Group 7: Related Attachments - There are multiple charts showing the price trends, spreads, basis, costs, and profits of ferroalloys [8][11][14][16][17][20][22][25] - The production costs and profits of silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy in different regions are presented [19][25]