Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The copper price is likely to continue its weak oscillatory pattern. The short - term support from smelter maintenance on the supply side is limited. The expected release of new domestic production capacity and the widening overseas discount suppress price flexibility. On the demand side, the high growth of lithium - ion copper foil partially offsets the weakness in traditional sectors, but continuous inventory accumulation reflects a short - term situation of strong supply and weak demand. Considering the repeated disturbances of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations on market sentiment, the copper market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the next 1 - 2 weeks, with attention paid to inventory pressure and the US dollar trend [6]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **主力合约与基差**: On August 6, the price of the SHFE copper main contract slightly declined to 78,210 yuan/ton, a 0.37% drop from the previous trading day, and the LME copper price also fell to 9,634.5 dollars/ton. The domestic spot premium/discount weakened across the board, with the premium of flat - copper dropping to 65 yuan/ton, a 40.91% narrowing from the previous day, and the wet - copper even turning to par. The LME (0 - 3) discount widened to - 67.32 dollars/ton, indicating increased supply pressure in the overseas market [1]. - **持仓与成交**: The LME copper open interest decreased by 1,316 lots to 265,284 lots, showing cautious market trading sentiment. The domestic SHFE inventory continued to accumulate to 156,125 tons, a 1.48% increase from the previous week, and the rising inventory pressure suppressed the price [2]. b. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **供给端**: There have been frequent short - term disturbances. The Indonesian PTGresik smelter is under maintenance for 2 - 4 weeks due to equipment failure, affecting about 20,000 tons of production. New domestic production capacity is gradually being released, such as the 40,000 - ton copper strip project of Anhui Zhongcheng Copper Industry and the 35,000 - ton cold - rolled high - precision copper strip project of Fujian Guangmin Copper Industry, but it will take time for the capacity to be realized [3]. - **需求端**: Demand shows structural differentiation. The lithium - ion copper foil maintains high prosperity, with the July shipment volume increasing by 11.35% month - on - month, and the August operating rate is expected to rise to 78.75%. However, the traditional sectors are under pressure, with the August white - goods production schedule down 4.9% year - on - year, and the spot trading in North China is sluggish. In addition, the demand for solid - state battery anode current collectors is a long - term growth point [4]. - **库存端**: Global visible inventory has been continuously accumulating. On August 6, the LME inventory increased to 20,346 tons, and the SHFE inventory climbed to 156,000 tons, both reaching recent highs, indicating a marginal easing of the supply - demand contradiction [5]. c. Market Summary The copper price may continue the weak oscillatory pattern. The short - term support from smelter maintenance on the supply side is limited, and the expected release of new domestic production capacity and the widening overseas discount suppress price flexibility. On the demand side, the high growth of lithium - ion copper foil partially offsets the weakness in traditional sectors, but continuous inventory accumulation reflects a short - term situation of strong supply and weak demand. Considering the repeated disturbances of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations on market sentiment, the copper market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the next 1 - 2 weeks, with attention paid to inventory pressure and the US dollar trend [6]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **现货(升贴水)**: The price of SMM:1 copper decreased from 78,790 yuan/ton on August 5 to 78,500 yuan/ton on August 6, a 0.37% drop. The premium of premium copper decreased by 18.18% to 135 yuan/ton, the premium of flat - copper decreased by 40.91% to 65 yuan/ton, and the premium of wet - copper decreased by 100% to 0 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) discount narrowed by 6.98% to - 63 dollars/ton [8]. - **价格**: The SHFE copper price decreased from 78,500 yuan/ton on August 5 to 78,210 yuan/ton on August 6, a 0.37% drop, while the LME copper price increased by 0.41% to 9,674 dollars/ton [8]. - **库存**: The LME inventory increased by 8.41% to 20,346 tons, the SHFE inventory increased by 1.48% to 156,125 tons, and the COMEX inventory decreased by 0.03% to 263,104 short tons [8]. 3. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report includes multiple data charts such as China's PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper prices, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper prices, TC processing fees, CFTC copper open interest, LME copper net - long open interest analysis, Shanghai copper warrant volume, LME copper inventory change, COMEX copper inventory change, and SMM social inventory, with data sources from iFinD and Tonghui Futures Research and Development Department [9][11][14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are likely to maintain a volatile and weak pattern. Supply-side short-term disruptions are offset by the release of new smelting capacity. The off-season effect on the demand side suppresses the spot premium. The increase in photovoltaic installations offsets part of the decline in consumption, but the impact is limited. The strengthening of the US dollar at the macro level suppresses risk appetite, while the US-EU tariff agreement eases trade frictions and limits the downside space. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the US tariff policy on August 1 and inventory changes [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contracts and Basis**: As of the week ending July 25, the price of the SHFE copper main contract dropped from 79,820 yuan/ton to 79,290 yuan/ton, a decline of about 0.66%. The LME copper price fell from $9,854.5/ton to $9,796/ton, continuing the high-level correction trend. The spot premium significantly narrowed. The premium of premium copper decreased from 180 yuan/ton to 165 yuan/ton, and the premium of flat copper decreased from 110 yuan/ton to 85 yuan/ton, indicating increased spot supply pressure. The LME copper 0 - 3 backwardation widened to -$53.68/ton [1]. - **Positions and Trading Volume**: The LME copper position increased to 270,400 lots, but the SHFE copper inventory increased to 128,500 tons, intensifying the long-short game. Near the end of the month in the Shanghai market, the sentiment of holders to sell for cash increased, while downstream purchases only maintained rigid demand, and market liquidity marginally weakened [2]. 3.1.2 Industry Chain Supply and Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: Short-term disturbance factors intensified. Newmont's Red Chris mine suspended operations due to an accident, and Glencore's Mount Isa mine will officially close next week, weakening the global copper mine supply elasticity. However, the commissioning of Jiangxi Copper's Zambia project supplemented the supply of the processing end. Overall, the smelting end maintained a high level, and the arrival of imported copper and domestic supply led to inventory accumulation in the Shanghai area [3]. - **Demand Side**: The off-season characteristics were obvious. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises decreased by 2.07% to 70.83% week-on-week and is expected to further drop to 70.30% next week, mainly because the rising copper price suppressed purchases, and the orders for photovoltaic and power projects seasonally declined. Although there was resilience in the photovoltaic field demand, the terminal delivery rhythm slowed down. The spot discount in North China remained at 140 yuan/ton, indicating weak regional consumption [4]. - **Inventory Side**: The contradiction in global visible inventories emerged. The LME inventory slightly decreased to 16,133 tons, but the SHFE inventory increased to 128,500 tons, and the COMEX inventory rose to 248,600 short tons. The pressure on domestic social inventories was particularly prominent [5]. 3.1.3 Market Summary - Copper prices may maintain a volatile and weak pattern. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the US tariff policy on August 1 and inventory changes [6]. 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - From July 22 to July 28, 2025, most copper-related prices showed a downward trend, and inventory changes varied. For example, the SMM 1 copper price decreased from 79,920 yuan/ton to 79,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.46%. The LME copper price decreased from $9,855/ton to $9,763/ton, a decrease of 0.34%. The LME inventory increased by 10.53%, the SHFE inventory decreased by 0.84%, and the COMEX inventory increased by 0.88% [8]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On July 25, 2025, Jiangxi Copper's first overseas wholly-owned factory in Zambia was fully put into production, with an initial investment of $11 million, capable of producing 40,000 kilometers of wire and cable and 10,000 tons of oxygen-free copper rods per year [9]. - On July 25, 2025, the operating rate of copper cable enterprises was 70.83%, a week-on-week decrease of 2.07 percentage points, and is expected to further drop to 70.30% next week [9]. - On July 24, 2025, Newmont's Red Chris mine in Canada suspended operations due to a collapse accident, with an expected copper production of 20,000 metal tons in 2025 [9]. - On July 24, 2025, Glencore will close its Mount Isa copper mine in Australia next week, with an estimated layoff of about 500 people [10]. - On July 23, 2025, according to data from the National Energy Administration, the new photovoltaic installed capacity in June was 14.36 GW, and the cumulative installed capacity from January to June 2025 was 212.21 GW. The increase in photovoltaic installed capacity will drive up copper demand [10]. 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, dollar index and LME copper price correlation, US interest rate and LME copper price correlation, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net long positions analysis, SHFE copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventories [11][13][17].

Group 1: Report Summary - The copper market is expected to remain weak in the next 1 - 2 weeks, with prices likely to fluctuate in the range of RMB 76,000 - 79,000 per ton, mainly due to weak demand, ample supply, and macro - level factors such as US tariff policies and potential delays in Fed rate cuts. [34] Group 2: Market Data Changes Sub - group 1: Main Contracts and Basis - On July 14, the SHFE copper price dropped to RMB 78,330 per ton, a decrease of RMB 140 from July 11. The LME price also declined, and the LME (0 - 3) basis widened, indicating short - term supply surplus. The premium of premium copper remained at RMB 0, and the discount of flat - copper remained at RMB - 50, suggesting weak spot demand. The discount of wet - copper narrowed, possibly indicating improved supply. [2][33] Sub - group 2: Position and Trading Volume - On July 14, the LME copper inventory soared to 34,379 tons, a significant increase of 11,000 tons from July 11, with a growth rate of 47.5%. The SHFE inventory also increased, but at a slower rate of 0.83%. The accumulation of inventory is bearish for copper prices. [3][33] Group 3: Industry Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Sub - group 1: Supply - China's copper concentrate imports in June decreased by 1.9% month - on - month but increased by 6.4% year - to - date, indicating overall growth in imports. The CSPT meeting decided not to set a reference processing fee for Q3, which may reflect tightness at the mine end and pressure on smelting profits, potentially leading to smelter production cuts. The 50% tariff on imported copper in the US may disrupt the supply chain, especially affecting Chile's exports. The suspension of production by Canada's Hudbay Minerals due to wildfires may temporarily reduce supply, but the impact is minor. [4][34] Sub - group 2: Demand - Domestic downstream restocked when copper prices rebounded but then reduced purchases, indicating unstable demand. Spot market transactions in Shandong and North China were light, with downstream being cautious before the contract change, mainly driven by rigid demand. This may suggest insufficient terminal demand, especially in the power and construction sectors. [5][34] Sub - group 3: Inventory - The continuous accumulation of LME and SHFE inventories, especially the significant increase in LME inventory, along with the rising COMEX inventory, indicates an increase in global visible inventory, strengthening the expectation of a supply - abundant market, which is unfavorable for prices. [6][34]