通惠期货研发部 李英杰 乙二醇供给增量叠加累库压制，延续偏弱震荡 一、日度市场总结 主力合约与基差：乙二醇主力合约从8月15日的4412元/吨下跌至8月18日的 4392元/吨，跌幅0.45%，延续偏弱震荡走势；同期华东现货价格从4455元/ 吨回落至4435元/吨，基差由48元/吨扩大至68元/吨，现货升水走强反映短 期供需矛盾有所加剧。分合约价差显示，1-5价差进一步走阔至-43元/吨， 表明近月压力大于远月预期。 持仓与成交：主力合约持仓量从14.8万手降至13.3万手，降幅达10.54%， 但成交量从7.2万手激增至11.0万手，增幅53.7%，显示价格波动加剧引发 资金活跃度提升，但部分空头资金存在主动减仓行为。 供给端：乙二醇开工率由62.64%升至64.05%，油制路线开工率显著提升2.4 个百分点至64.13%，煤制开工率维持64.03%未变，总体供给压力小幅增 加，煤化工装置负荷仍维持高位。 需求端：聚酯工厂负荷稳定于89.42%，江浙织机负荷亦维持63.43%未变， 下游需求进入平台期，缺乏新增订单驱动下，原料补库意愿有限。 库存端：华东主港库存一周内增加5.9万吨至48.57万吨，其中张 ...

市场降温叠加库存再度施压，铜价短期区间回调 一、日度市场总结 铜期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差： 截至7月25日当周，沪铜主力合约价格从79820元/吨回落至79290元/吨，跌 幅约0.66%；LME铜价从9854.5美元/吨降至9796美元/吨，延续高位回调趋 势。现货升水显著收窄，升水铜升水环比从180元/吨跌至165元/吨，平水 铜升水从110元/吨降至85元/吨，显示现货供应压力增大。LME铜0-3贴水扩 大至-53.68美元/吨。 持仓与成交： LME铜持仓量增至27.04万手，但SHFE铜库存增至12.85万吨，多空博弈加 剧。上海市场临近月末持货商抛售换现情绪增强，下游采购仅维持刚需， 市场流动性边际转弱。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端： 短期扰动因素加剧。Newmont旗下RedChris矿因事故暂停运营，叠加嘉能可 Mount Isa矿于下周正式关闭，削弱全球铜矿供应弹性。但江铜赞比亚项目 投产补充加工端供应。整体冶炼端维持高位，进口铜到港及国产补充导致 上海地区垒库。 需求端： 淡季特征明显。铜线缆企业开工率环比下降2.07%至70.83%，预计下周进一 步降至70.30%，主 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report The current rebound of lithium carbonate futures prices is mainly driven by capital sentiment, deviating from the fundamentals. The supply side shows increasing production capacity and high inventory, while the demand side experiences a decline in the retail growth rate of new energy vehicles and weak spot procurement. The over - supply pattern in the industry remains unchanged. Although the strengthening basis provides short - term support for the market, the reduction in positions and trading volume indicates market doubts about the sustainability of the price increase. In the next 1 - 2 weeks, the market is expected to show a volatile consolidation trend after a rise and fall. The upside is limited by insufficient spot acceptance and inventory pressure, and the downside is affected by repeated fluctuations in capital sentiment. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data**: On July 15, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract closed at 66,660 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous trading day. The basis rose to - 1,960 yuan/ton, with the near - month price still in a discount structure. The position of the main contract decreased by 3.94% to 342,146 lots, and the trading volume shrank by 24.69% to 764,028 lots, indicating a slight decline in market activity. [1] - **Supply - Demand and Inventory in the Industry Chain**: The domestic lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate slightly increased by 0.2 percentage points to 62%, with a slight release of production capacity. Lithium concentrate prices remained stable. The prices of power battery materials were differentiated, with lithium iron phosphate rising and ternary materials slightly falling. From July 1 - 6, new energy vehicle retail sales decreased by 11% month - on - month, and downstream enterprises had weak spot procurement willingness. Lithium carbonate inventory increased to 140,793 physical tons, up 1.77% week - on - week, with continuous inventory accumulation for four weeks, and the fundamental over - supply pressure continued. [2] - **Market Summary**: The current rebound of lithium carbonate futures prices is driven by capital sentiment, deviating from the fundamentals. The over - supply pattern remains unchanged. Although the strengthening basis supports the market in the short term, the reduction in positions and trading volume reflects market doubts about the price increase. In the next 1 - 2 weeks, the market is expected to show a volatile consolidation trend, with risks of correction after the ebb of sentiment. [3] 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - **Price Changes on July 15**: The price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 0.27% to 66,660 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 26.87% to - 1,960 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract decreased by 3.94%, and the trading volume decreased by 24.69%. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.41% to 64,700 yuan/ton. Lithium concentrate prices remained stable, while the price of lithium iron phosphate increased and that of ternary materials decreased. [5] - **Other Price and Data Changes**: The lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate increased by 0.32% to 62%, and the inventory increased by 1.77% to 140,793 physical tons. The prices of some battery cells had slight changes. [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotations**: On July 15, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price and the average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased. The futures market's irrational fluctuations continued, and downstream enterprises had low acceptance of current prices, with weak procurement demand. Upstream lithium salt enterprises had tentative price - adjustment measures, and actual transactions were mainly dominated by traders. Future price trends depend on both supply - demand fundamentals and market sentiment. [6] - **Downstream Consumption**: From July 1 - 6, the national new energy vehicle retail sales were 135,000 units, a 21% year - on - year increase but an 11% month - on - month decrease. The new energy market retail penetration rate was 56.7%. The new energy vehicle wholesale was 125,000 units, a 31% year - on - year increase and a 0% month - on - month increase, with a wholesale penetration rate of 53.6%. [7] - **Industry News**: - On July 4, Tibet Geermu Mining's subsidiary's invested company received a construction permit for a lithium - boron mining project, which is beneficial for expanding production capacity. [8][9] - On June 30, Zhongkuang Resources planned a technical upgrade of its lithium salt production line, with a total investment of about 120.7 million yuan and a 6 - month shutdown for renovation. [9] - On June 24, the estimated total investment of the Mami Cuo Salt Lake project was 4.537 billion yuan, with a planned annual production of 50,000 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate and 17,000 tons of borax. [9]