Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The short - term outlook for ethylene glycol may be a low - level oscillating pattern. The marginal contraction of supply provides bottom support for prices, but the lack of improvement in the polyester and terminal weaving loads on the demand side, along with the increase in port inventories to a yearly high, suppresses the price rebound space. Future attention should be paid to cost - side fluctuations in crude oil/coal and the seasonal improvement rhythm of downstream orders. If inventory depletion fails to meet expectations, prices may test previous lows again [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Price and Basis**: From September 30 to October 9, the price of the ethylene glycol main futures contract dropped from 4,207 yuan/ton to 4,158 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.16%, showing a five - day consecutive downward trend. The East China spot price also fell by 45 yuan/ton to 4,230 yuan/ton. The basis widened from 63 yuan/ton to 112 yuan/ton, deepening the futures discount [2]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The position of the main contract increased by 6.77% to 335,300 lots, and the trading volume increased by 6.35% to 145,463 lots, indicating intensified market divergence and active short - side position - increasing during the price decline [2]. - **Supply Side**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate decreased by 1 percentage point to 70.33%, with a significant 1.6 - percentage - point decline in the oil - based unit operating rate to 75.3%, while the coal - based operating rate remained unchanged at 62.95%. The contraction of oil - based production capacity provides marginal support to the supply side [2]. - **Demand Side**: The polyester factory load remained stable at 89.42%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load remained at 63.43%. Terminal demand showed no obvious improvement, with downstream purchases mainly for rigid demand. The polyester segment lacked incremental drivers for ethylene glycol consumption [2]. - **Inventory Side**: The East China main port inventory increased by 5.9 tons to 48.57 tons, and the Zhangjiagang inventory soared by 40.6% to 18 tons in a single week. The arrival volume decreased by 6.7 tons to 10.17 tons, indicating low actual port shipments and accelerating inventory pressure [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The main contract price of MEG futures decreased by 1.16% to 4,158 yuan/ton, and the East China spot price decreased by 1.05% to 4,230 yuan/ton. The basis widened by 77.78% to 112 yuan/ton [5]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: The main contract position increased by 6.77% to 335,300 lots, and the trading volume increased by 6.35% to 145,463 lots [5]. - **Operating Rates**: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate decreased by 1.37% to 70.3%, with the oil - based operating rate dropping by 2.13% to 75.3%, while the coal - based operating rate remained unchanged [5]. - **Inventory and Arrival Volume**: The East China main port inventory increased by 13.69% to 48.6 tons, the Zhangjiagang inventory increased by 40.62% to 18 tons, and the arrival volume decreased by 39.72% to 10.17 tons [5]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On October 9, the East China US - dollar market first declined and then slightly recovered, with no reported transactions. The mainstream market center dropped, and prices in the South China, Shaanxi, and East China markets all decreased due to weak supply - demand patterns and downstream demand [6]. - During the holiday, international oil prices fell, weakening cost - side support. Domestic ethylene glycol supply increased, and port inventories accumulated [6]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, domestic ethylene glycol unit operating rates, downstream polyester unit operating rates, and ethylene glycol inventory statistics [7][9][11].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The ethylene glycol price may continue to fluctuate weakly, driven by port inventory accumulation, increasing coal - based production, and lack of marginal demand growth. In the short - term, the price is expected to be weakly volatile, with the need to monitor the cost - end price changes and the fulfillment of peak - season demand expectations [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary - **Price and Basis**: The main contract of ethylene glycol dropped from 4412 yuan/ton on August 15th to 4392 yuan/ton on August 18th, a 0.45% decline. The East China spot price fell from 4455 yuan/ton to 4435 yuan/ton, and the basis widened from 48 yuan/ton to 68 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread widened to - 43 yuan/ton [2] - **Position and Trading Volume**: The main contract's open interest decreased from 148,000 lots to 133,000 lots, a 10.54% decline, while the trading volume increased from 72,000 lots to 110,000 lots, a 53.7% increase [2] - **Supply**: The ethylene glycol operating rate rose from 62.64% to 64.05%, with the oil - based route's operating rate increasing by 2.4 percentage points to 64.13%, and the coal - based operating rate remaining stable at 64.03% [2] - **Demand**: The polyester factory load remained stable at 89.42%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load stayed at 63.43%. Downstream demand entered a plateau, and the willingness to replenish raw material inventory was limited [2] - **Inventory**: The East China main port inventory increased by 59,000 tons to 485,700 tons in a week, with Zhangjiagang's inventory soaring 40.6% to 180,000 tons. The incoming volume decreased by 67,000 tons to 101,700 tons, indicating reduced port shipping efficiency and accelerating accumulation of supply - demand surplus pressure [3] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The main contract of MEG futures dropped from 4412 yuan/ton to 4392 yuan/ton, a 0.45% decline. The East China spot price fell from 4455 yuan/ton to 4435 yuan/ton, also a 0.45% decline [5] - **Spreads**: The MEG basis widened from 48 yuan/ton to 68 yuan/ton, a 41.67% increase. The 1 - 5 spread widened to - 43 yuan/ton, a 10.26% decline [5] - **Profits and Operating Rates**: The coal - based profit remained at - 350 yuan/ton. The overall ethylene glycol operating rate increased from 62.6% to 64.1%, the oil - based operating rate rose from 61.7% to 64.1%, and the coal - based operating rate remained stable [5] - **Inventory and Incoming Volume**: The East China main port inventory increased from 427,000 tons to 486,000 tons, a 13.69% increase. Zhangjiagang's inventory increased from 128,000 tons to 180,000 tons, a 40.62% increase. The incoming volume decreased from 168,700 tons to 101,700 tons, a 39.72% decline [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On August 18th, the East China US - dollar market weakened in the morning and fluctuated slightly in the afternoon. The Shaanxi ethylene glycol spot price remained stable, and the mainstream market was weakly sorted with a strong spot basis [6] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profits, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rates, downstream polyester plant operating rates, East China main port inventory statistics, and total ethylene glycol industry inventory [7][9][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are likely to maintain a volatile and weak pattern. Supply-side short-term disruptions are offset by the release of new smelting capacity. The off-season effect on the demand side suppresses the spot premium. The increase in photovoltaic installations offsets part of the decline in consumption, but the impact is limited. The strengthening of the US dollar at the macro level suppresses risk appetite, while the US-EU tariff agreement eases trade frictions and limits the downside space. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the US tariff policy on August 1 and inventory changes [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contracts and Basis**: As of the week ending July 25, the price of the SHFE copper main contract dropped from 79,820 yuan/ton to 79,290 yuan/ton, a decline of about 0.66%. The LME copper price fell from $9,854.5/ton to $9,796/ton, continuing the high-level correction trend. The spot premium significantly narrowed. The premium of premium copper decreased from 180 yuan/ton to 165 yuan/ton, and the premium of flat copper decreased from 110 yuan/ton to 85 yuan/ton, indicating increased spot supply pressure. The LME copper 0 - 3 backwardation widened to -$53.68/ton [1]. - **Positions and Trading Volume**: The LME copper position increased to 270,400 lots, but the SHFE copper inventory increased to 128,500 tons, intensifying the long-short game. Near the end of the month in the Shanghai market, the sentiment of holders to sell for cash increased, while downstream purchases only maintained rigid demand, and market liquidity marginally weakened [2]. 3.1.2 Industry Chain Supply and Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: Short-term disturbance factors intensified. Newmont's Red Chris mine suspended operations due to an accident, and Glencore's Mount Isa mine will officially close next week, weakening the global copper mine supply elasticity. However, the commissioning of Jiangxi Copper's Zambia project supplemented the supply of the processing end. Overall, the smelting end maintained a high level, and the arrival of imported copper and domestic supply led to inventory accumulation in the Shanghai area [3]. - **Demand Side**: The off-season characteristics were obvious. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises decreased by 2.07% to 70.83% week-on-week and is expected to further drop to 70.30% next week, mainly because the rising copper price suppressed purchases, and the orders for photovoltaic and power projects seasonally declined. Although there was resilience in the photovoltaic field demand, the terminal delivery rhythm slowed down. The spot discount in North China remained at 140 yuan/ton, indicating weak regional consumption [4]. - **Inventory Side**: The contradiction in global visible inventories emerged. The LME inventory slightly decreased to 16,133 tons, but the SHFE inventory increased to 128,500 tons, and the COMEX inventory rose to 248,600 short tons. The pressure on domestic social inventories was particularly prominent [5]. 3.1.3 Market Summary - Copper prices may maintain a volatile and weak pattern. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the US tariff policy on August 1 and inventory changes [6]. 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - From July 22 to July 28, 2025, most copper-related prices showed a downward trend, and inventory changes varied. For example, the SMM 1 copper price decreased from 79,920 yuan/ton to 79,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.46%. The LME copper price decreased from $9,855/ton to $9,763/ton, a decrease of 0.34%. The LME inventory increased by 10.53%, the SHFE inventory decreased by 0.84%, and the COMEX inventory increased by 0.88% [8]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On July 25, 2025, Jiangxi Copper's first overseas wholly-owned factory in Zambia was fully put into production, with an initial investment of $11 million, capable of producing 40,000 kilometers of wire and cable and 10,000 tons of oxygen-free copper rods per year [9]. - On July 25, 2025, the operating rate of copper cable enterprises was 70.83%, a week-on-week decrease of 2.07 percentage points, and is expected to further drop to 70.30% next week [9]. - On July 24, 2025, Newmont's Red Chris mine in Canada suspended operations due to a collapse accident, with an expected copper production of 20,000 metal tons in 2025 [9]. - On July 24, 2025, Glencore will close its Mount Isa copper mine in Australia next week, with an estimated layoff of about 500 people [10]. - On July 23, 2025, according to data from the National Energy Administration, the new photovoltaic installed capacity in June was 14.36 GW, and the cumulative installed capacity from January to June 2025 was 212.21 GW. The increase in photovoltaic installed capacity will drive up copper demand [10]. 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, dollar index and LME copper price correlation, US interest rate and LME copper price correlation, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net long positions analysis, SHFE copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventories [11][13][17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report The current rebound of lithium carbonate futures prices is mainly driven by capital sentiment, deviating from the fundamentals. The supply side shows increasing production capacity and high inventory, while the demand side experiences a decline in the retail growth rate of new energy vehicles and weak spot procurement. The over - supply pattern in the industry remains unchanged. Although the strengthening basis provides short - term support for the market, the reduction in positions and trading volume indicates market doubts about the sustainability of the price increase. In the next 1 - 2 weeks, the market is expected to show a volatile consolidation trend after a rise and fall. The upside is limited by insufficient spot acceptance and inventory pressure, and the downside is affected by repeated fluctuations in capital sentiment. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data**: On July 15, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract closed at 66,660 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous trading day. The basis rose to - 1,960 yuan/ton, with the near - month price still in a discount structure. The position of the main contract decreased by 3.94% to 342,146 lots, and the trading volume shrank by 24.69% to 764,028 lots, indicating a slight decline in market activity. [1] - **Supply - Demand and Inventory in the Industry Chain**: The domestic lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate slightly increased by 0.2 percentage points to 62%, with a slight release of production capacity. Lithium concentrate prices remained stable. The prices of power battery materials were differentiated, with lithium iron phosphate rising and ternary materials slightly falling. From July 1 - 6, new energy vehicle retail sales decreased by 11% month - on - month, and downstream enterprises had weak spot procurement willingness. Lithium carbonate inventory increased to 140,793 physical tons, up 1.77% week - on - week, with continuous inventory accumulation for four weeks, and the fundamental over - supply pressure continued. [2] - **Market Summary**: The current rebound of lithium carbonate futures prices is driven by capital sentiment, deviating from the fundamentals. The over - supply pattern remains unchanged. Although the strengthening basis supports the market in the short term, the reduction in positions and trading volume reflects market doubts about the price increase. In the next 1 - 2 weeks, the market is expected to show a volatile consolidation trend, with risks of correction after the ebb of sentiment. [3] 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - **Price Changes on July 15**: The price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 0.27% to 66,660 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 26.87% to - 1,960 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract decreased by 3.94%, and the trading volume decreased by 24.69%. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.41% to 64,700 yuan/ton. Lithium concentrate prices remained stable, while the price of lithium iron phosphate increased and that of ternary materials decreased. [5] - **Other Price and Data Changes**: The lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate increased by 0.32% to 62%, and the inventory increased by 1.77% to 140,793 physical tons. The prices of some battery cells had slight changes. [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotations**: On July 15, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price and the average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased. The futures market's irrational fluctuations continued, and downstream enterprises had low acceptance of current prices, with weak procurement demand. Upstream lithium salt enterprises had tentative price - adjustment measures, and actual transactions were mainly dominated by traders. Future price trends depend on both supply - demand fundamentals and market sentiment. [6] - **Downstream Consumption**: From July 1 - 6, the national new energy vehicle retail sales were 135,000 units, a 21% year - on - year increase but an 11% month - on - month decrease. The new energy market retail penetration rate was 56.7%. The new energy vehicle wholesale was 125,000 units, a 31% year - on - year increase and a 0% month - on - month increase, with a wholesale penetration rate of 53.6%. [7] - **Industry News**: - On July 4, Tibet Geermu Mining's subsidiary's invested company received a construction permit for a lithium - boron mining project, which is beneficial for expanding production capacity. [8][9] - On June 30, Zhongkuang Resources planned a technical upgrade of its lithium salt production line, with a total investment of about 120.7 million yuan and a 6 - month shutdown for renovation. [9] - On June 24, the estimated total investment of the Mami Cuo Salt Lake project was 4.537 billion yuan, with a planned annual production of 50,000 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate and 17,000 tons of borax. [9]