1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The copper price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation around 85,000 yuan in the next 1 - 2 weeks. The main contradictions are the balance - sheet gap caused by Freeport canceling the 4th - quarter sales contract after the Indonesian mine accident and the increase in precious - metal demand due to the decline in the US national credit caused by the federal government shutdown. As long as these contradictions continue, the copper price is unlikely to decline. In the short term, the focus is on the US government shutdown event [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **主力合约与基差**: On October 23, the price of the SHFE copper main contract rose to 85,710 yuan/ton, a 0.75% increase from the previous day. However, the spot premium/discount generally weakened. The discount of flat - copper widened to - 10 yuan/ton, and that of wet - copper deepened to - 55 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) discount narrowed to - 6.36 dollars/ton, a significant improvement from - 30.22 dollars/ton the previous week [1]. - **持仓与成交**: The LME copper open interest contracted slightly for two consecutive days, indicating cautious market sentiment. The domestic spot market was inactive, with the premium/discount in North China dropping to a discount of 240 yuan/ton, and downstream resistance to high prices was significant [2]. 3.1.2 Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **供给端**: Short - term disturbances intensified. Jinlong Copper started its annual overhaul on October 11, which might affect the refined - copper output for that month. The Tetelo Copper Mine in Angola is about to be put into production, and Southeast Copper's optimization of sulfur - iron concentrate batching has enhanced its cold - material processing capacity, increasing the medium - and long - term supply increment expectation [3]. - **需求端**: Structural differentiation was prominent. Chinese demand was significantly suppressed by high prices. After the copper price exceeded 85,000 yuan/ton, orders from enameled - wire and processing enterprises decreased significantly, and end - users turned to consuming their own inventories. The US and India became new growth poles, and infrastructure and new - energy demand in the US provided support for the copper price [4]. - **库存端**: On October 23, the SMM national copper inventory decreased by 0.5 tons week - on - week to 18.16 tons, mainly due to a short - term decline in imports and domestic arrivals. However, domestic supplies are expected to increase later. With the continuous decline of LME inventory for three weeks, the marginal reduction of global visible inventory supported the price [5]. 3.1.3 Market Summary The copper price may remain in a high - level oscillation around 85,000 yuan in the next 1 - 2 weeks. The main contradictions are still the balance - sheet gap and the increase in precious - metal demand, and the short - term focus is on the US government shutdown [6]. 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring On October 23, the SMM 1 copper price was 85,530 yuan/ton, a 0.48% increase from the previous day. The premium of premium - copper decreased by 33.33% to 40 yuan/ton, the discount of flat - copper widened by 200% to - 10 yuan/ton, and the discount of wet - copper deepened by 22.22% to - 55 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) discount widened by 81.60% to - 12 dollars/ton. The SHFE price rose to 85,710 yuan/ton, a 0.75% increase, and the LME price rose to 10,817 dollars/ton, a 1.49% increase. The LME inventory decreased by 1.38% to 36,048 tons, the SHFE inventory increased by 0.05% to 136,925 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 0.29% to 347,498 short tons [8]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On October 23, Jinlong Copper's 2025 annual equipment overhaul started on October 11, with 22 fixed - asset investment projects and 320 regular overhaul projects planned, and the work is progressing smoothly [9]. - As of October 23, the SMM national copper inventory decreased by 0.5 tons week - on - week to 18.16 tons. Import and domestic arrivals were low, but domestic supplies are expected to increase, and demand is expected to pick up, so the weekly inventory is expected to increase [10]. - The Tetelo Copper Mine in Angola, held by China's ShiningStarIcarus with an investment of 250 million dollars, is about to start production. It is expected to produce 25,000 tons of copper concentrate annually in the first two years, starting with open - pit mining and switching to underground mining in the second half of 2026 [10]. - On October 22, Southeast Copper achieved a "zero breakthrough" in the procurement of sulfur - iron concentrate, which can improve smelting heat income, optimize the batching structure, and enhance cold - material processing capacity [10]. - On October 21, copper - consumption growth is being driven by the US and India, while the growth rate of Chinese demand is slowing down [10]. 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts The report includes charts on China PMI, US PMI, US employment, the correlation between the US interest rate and LME copper price, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper price, TC processing fees, CFTC copper open interest, LME copper net - long open interest analysis, Shanghai copper warrant volume, LME copper inventory change, COMEX copper inventory change, and SMM social inventory [11][16][15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Short-term copper prices may continue to operate strongly above the 82,000-point level. Supply-side disruptions in the mining sector and the mismatch in the release rhythm of smelting capacity, combined with Aurubis raising the European long-term premium to $315 per ton, support the downside space. However, the weakness in traditional demand sectors, the increase in global inventories, and the significant narrowing of the LME basis suppress the upside momentum. At the macro level, the expected Fed policy and dollar fluctuations may intensify price volatility [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Market Summary - **Copper Futures Market Data Changes**: On October 14, the LME copper price was reported at $10,584.5 per ton, a 2.01% decline from the previous day, continuing the recent high-level correction trend. The LME (0 - 3) premium dropped significantly from $226.78 per ton to $54.87 per ton. The spot premium and copper discount narrowed to 100 yuan per ton, and the flat copper discount also shrank to 20 yuan per ton. The LME copper open interest slightly increased by 70 lots to 323,147 lots on October 14, but overall capital flow was relatively stable. Meanwhile, the open interests of other metals such as aluminum, lead, and zinc all decreased to varying degrees [1][2]. - **Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Changes** - **Supply Side**: Global copper mine supply disturbances have intensified. Codelco's August production dropped sharply to 93,400 tons due to an accident at the El Teniente copper mine. Japan's PPC and Mitsubishi Materials announced a 2.5% year-on-year reduction in copper production and a 25% reduction in concentrate processing volume in the second half of the 2025/26 fiscal year, further intensifying the expectation of tight supply. Domestically, the expansion project of Tongling Nonferrous' copper anode slime treatment system and the standardization renovation of Jiangxi Copper's Wutong Mine may improve long-term smelting efficiency, but the short-term actual increase is limited [3]. - **Demand Side**: The production and sales of new energy vehicles maintained a high growth rate, supporting the resilience of copper consumption, but the performance of traditional sectors was differentiated. The brass rod market was affected by the sharp fluctuations in copper prices, and the downstream purchasing willingness was low. Enterprise orders were mainly long-term orders. The demand potential in the power and energy storage fields remained to be released. SMM spot data showed that downstream buying interest was weak, and both the procurement and sales sentiment indexes were below the neutral level [4]. - **Inventory Side**: Global visible inventories continued to accumulate. The LME inventory increased to 36,295 tons on October 14, the COMEX inventory rose to 342,000 short tons, and the SHFE inventory slightly decreased to 138,800 tons but remained at a high level for the year. The inventory pressure highlighted the market's concern about the loose future supply and demand [5]. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring | Data Index | 2025 - 10 - 15 | 2025 - 10 - 14 | 2025 - 10 - 09 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM: 1 Copper | 85,590 | 86,070 | 85,180 | -480 | -0.56% | Yuan/ton | | Spot (Premium/Discount) - Premium Copper | 130 | 100 | 150 | 30 | 30.00% | Yuan/ton | | Spot (Premium/Discount) - Flat Copper | 70 | 20 | 45 | 50 | 250.00% | Yuan/ton | | Spot (Premium/Discount) - Wet - Process Copper | 0 | -45 | -45 | 45 | 100.00% | Yuan/ton | | LME (0 - 3) | 28 | 55 | 227 | -27 | -49.08% | Dollar/ton | | SHFE Price | 85,370 | 85,320 | 84,900 | 50 | 0.06% | Yuan/ton | | LME Price | 10,576 | 10,585 | 10,802 | -9 | -0.08% | Dollar/ton | | LME Inventory | 44,531 | 36,295 | 32,890 | 8,236 | 22.69% | Tons | | SHFE Inventory | 138,350 | 138,800 | 139,350 | -450 | -0.32% | Tons | | COMEX Inventory | 343,235 | 342,280 | 340,875 | 955 | 0.28% | Short tons | [8] Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On October 15, the pre - approval publicity of the environmental impact report of the upgrade, renovation, and expansion project of Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd.'s copper anode slime treatment system was announced. The project will expand the treatment scale of copper anode slime (dry basis) from 5,000 tons per year to 12,000 tons per year [9]. - On October 14, the on - site standardization renovation of the - 310m middle section hole bottom of Jiangxi Copper's Wutong Mine officially started, which will be carried out in three stages [9]. - On October 10, Codelco's copper production in August dropped significantly to 93,400 tons due to an accident at the El Teniente copper mine [9]. - On October 9, Japan's PPC and Mitsubishi Materials announced production expectations for the second half of the 2025/26 fiscal year. PPC expects a 2.5% year - on - year decline in copper production, and Mitsubishi Materials will reduce the concentrate processing volume of the Onahama Smelter by about 25% [10]. - On October 9, Aurubis raised the long - term premium for electrolytic copper in Europe in 2026 to $315 per ton, a record high [10].

印尼铜矿变动节内持续发酵，外盘铜持续吸引资金 一、日度市场总结 铜期货市场数据变动分析 持仓与成交 ： 库存数据呈现分化：LME铜库存单日增加1220吨（+4.77%），但SHFE库存微 降500吨（-0.35%），COMEX库存小幅累积。LME(0-3)贴水收窄至-29.22美 元/吨。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ： 主力合约与基差 ： 截至9月30日，SHFE铜主力合约价格大幅走高至83280元/吨，较前一日上涨 1.23%；LME铜价同步上扬至10428.5美元/吨，较9月24日累计上涨223.5美 元。现货升贴水方面，升水铜升水幅度从25元/吨大幅提升至70元/吨，平 水铜及湿法铜贴水收窄，显示现货市场情绪回暖，基差整体走强。 需求端 ： 国内基建项目开工提速带动电力用铜需求，9月空调排产同比增15%，但地 产竣工数据仍疲软。海外方面，欧洲制造业PMI连续三月低于荣枯线，压制 出口订单；美联储加息预期升温导致美元指数走强，抑制海外投机性买 盘。 库存端 ： 秘 鲁 Las Bambas 铜 矿 于 9 月 29 日 宣 布 恢 复 运 营 ， 但 智 利 Codelco 旗 下 Chuquic ...

北京时间9月24日，伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜期货价格弱势震荡，今日开盘报9980美元/吨，现报每吨 9977.5美元/吨，跌幅0.16%，盘中最高触及9990.5美元/吨，最低下探9968.5美元/吨。 LME铜期货行情回顾： 9月23日伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜期货行情 9月23日，上期所铜期货仓单27727吨，环比上个交易日减少2166吨。 9月23日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）：铜注册仓单133100吨。注销仓单11875吨，减少600吨。铜库存 144975吨，减少400吨。 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 LME铜 10015.0 10027.5 9955.5 9993.5 -0.08% 【铜市场消息速递】 9月23日，电解铜现货沪伦比值为8.02，进口盈亏：-78.71元/吨，上一交易日进口盈亏：-94.79元/吨。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the short term, copper prices may maintain high - level oscillations. Supply - side contradictions, such as the shutdown of Indonesian mines and domestic smelter overhauls, support prices, but the increase in scrap copper imports restricts the upward space. On the demand side, overseas demand for high - value - added copper products is strong, but domestic consumption is suppressed by high copper prices. Dollar fluctuations and low inventory levels support copper prices, but the pre - holiday capital risk - aversion tendency may limit the fluctuation range. It is expected that copper prices may maintain high - level oscillations in the next one to two weeks, ranging from 79,000 to 81,000 yuan/ton [6][38] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **主力合约与基差**: On September 22, the price of the SHFE copper main contract closed at 80,160 yuan/ton, fluctuating at a high level. The premium of premium copper decreased slightly from 115 yuan/ton to 105 yuan/ton, and the premium of flat - water copper decreased from 30 yuan/ton to 25 yuan/ton. However, the LME 0 - 3 month discount narrowed from - 71.09 US dollars/ton to - 64.9 US dollars/ton, and the near - month supply pressure was slightly relieved [1] - **持仓与成交**: The LME copper inventory continued the destocking trend, dropping to 29,893 tons on September 22, a decrease of 6.11% compared to September 16. The SHFE inventory also decreased by 1.54% to 145,375 tons. In terms of positions, the LME copper position decreased slightly by 504 lots to 289,843 lots on September 19, and the intensity of the long - short game in the market has not significantly increased [2] b. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **供给端**: There are frequent short - term disturbances. The shutdown of the Indonesian Grasberg mine due to an accident intensifies the expectation of supply shortage. Coupled with the overhaul of smelters in North China, the output of electrolytic copper has decreased. However, the import volume of scrap copper in Africa has increased sharply year - on - year, partially offsetting the supply gap of refined copper. Nevertheless, the year - on - year decline of anode copper imports by 18.72% reflects that there are still hidden concerns in the supply of refined copper raw materials [3] - **需求端**: There is a structural differentiation in external demand. The export of brass bars has decreased by 22.87% year - on - year, but the export of high - value - added products such as copper strips and enameled wires has performed strongly, with significant growth in markets such as South Korea and India. In North China, the recovery of copper prices has suppressed downstream restocking, and pre - holiday stocking has not started yet, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand [4] - **库存端**: Global visible inventories continue to decline, and both LME and SHFE inventories are in the low - level range of the year. The substitution effect of recycled copper supply is enhanced, but the diversification of scrap copper import sources has alleviated the risk of raw material shortage to a certain extent [5] c. Market Summary - In the short term, copper prices may maintain high - level oscillations. Supply - side contradictions support prices, but the increase in scrap copper imports restricts the upward space. On the demand side, overseas high - value - added copper product demand is strong, but domestic consumption is suppressed by high copper prices. Dollar fluctuations and low inventory levels provide support for copper prices, but the pre - holiday capital risk - aversion tendency may limit the fluctuation range [6] 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The SMM:1 copper price on September 22 was 80,310 yuan/ton, a 0.25% increase compared to September 19. The premium of premium copper decreased by 8.70% to 105 yuan/ton, the premium of flat - water copper decreased by 16.67% to 25 yuan/ton, and the discount of wet - process copper decreased by 16.67% to - 35 yuan/ton. The SHFE copper price increased by 0.34% to 80,160 yuan/ton. The LME copper inventory decreased by 6.11% to 29,893 tons, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 1.54% to 145,375 tons [8] 3. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes multiple data charts, such as China's PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper prices, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper prices, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net long positions analysis, Shanghai copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [9][13][15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The short - term copper market may maintain high - level volatility with large intraday fluctuations. Supply - side factors like smelting maintenance and recycled copper raw material interference provide support, but weak demand and LME inventory accumulation suppress the upside. With the Fed interest rate decision to be announced, the volatility is expected to increase on Thursday, and risk prevention for SHFE copper is necessary [1][3] - In the next one or two weeks, copper prices may fluctuate at a high level, mainly driven by supply - side maintenance, weak demand, and cautious macro sentiment. The price range is likely between 80,500 - 81,500 yuan/ton [32] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary 1.1 Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **主力合约与基差**: On September 16, the SHFE copper main contract price was 80,990 yuan/ton, a 0.2% rebound from the previous day, while the LME copper price dropped 0.71% to $10,117/ton. In terms of premium and discount, the domestic premium for premium copper widened to 125 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 discount narrowed to - $59.26/ton [1] - **持仓与成交**: The LME copper open interest continued to expand with a significant inventory build - up, increasing overseas short - selling pressure. The SHFE inventory in China continued to decline, and the warrants did not flow out in large quantities, so the domestic market support was relatively stronger than the overseas market [1] 1.2 Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **供给端**: The tight supply of recycled copper has eased, but the delayed delivery of low - price raw materials has hindered the production of recycled copper rod enterprises. Planned maintenance at North China smelters may exacerbate short - term regional supply tightness. Indonesia's plan to increase Freeport's state - owned equity may disrupt long - term copper mine supply expectations, but the short - term impact is limited [2] - **需求端**: High copper prices have continuously suppressed downstream procurement. The raw material inventory of refined copper rod enterprises decreased by 2.54% week - on - week, and the finished product inventory decreased by 3.63%. The discount of recycled copper rods to the futures price widened to 640 yuan/ton, and downstream acceptance of high - price goods was low, with orders remaining at the minimum requirement [2] - **库存端**: The LME inventory increased continuously, making overseas hidden inventories visible, while the SHFE inventory in China continued to decline, and the structural contradiction still existed [2] 1.3 Market Summary - The short - term copper market may maintain high - level volatility with large intraday fluctuations. Supply - side factors support the market, but weak demand and LME inventory accumulation suppress the upside. After the Fed interest rate decision is announced at the night - session close, the volatility on Thursday is expected to increase, and risk prevention for SHFE copper is necessary [3] 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring - From September 10 to September 16, the prices of SHFE copper, spot premium copper, and wet - process copper increased, while the LME copper price decreased. The LME and COMEX inventories increased, and the SHFE inventory decreased [5] 3. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, US interest rates and LME copper price correlation, US dollar index and LME copper price correlation, TC processing fees, CFTC copper open interest, LME copper net long positions, SHFE copper warrants, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [6][8][11] 4. Appendix: Large - Model Inference Process - After comprehensively analyzing the copper futures market data and information, it is expected that copper prices will fluctuate at a high level in the next one or two weeks, mainly driven by supply - side maintenance, weak demand, and cautious macro sentiment. The price range may be between 80,500 - 81,500 yuan/ton [30][32]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The copper price is likely to continue its weak oscillatory pattern. The short - term support from smelter maintenance on the supply side is limited. The expected release of new domestic production capacity and the widening overseas discount suppress price flexibility. On the demand side, the high growth of lithium - ion copper foil partially offsets the weakness in traditional sectors, but continuous inventory accumulation reflects a short - term situation of strong supply and weak demand. Considering the repeated disturbances of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations on market sentiment, the copper market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the next 1 - 2 weeks, with attention paid to inventory pressure and the US dollar trend [6]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **主力合约与基差**: On August 6, the price of the SHFE copper main contract slightly declined to 78,210 yuan/ton, a 0.37% drop from the previous trading day, and the LME copper price also fell to 9,634.5 dollars/ton. The domestic spot premium/discount weakened across the board, with the premium of flat - copper dropping to 65 yuan/ton, a 40.91% narrowing from the previous day, and the wet - copper even turning to par. The LME (0 - 3) discount widened to - 67.32 dollars/ton, indicating increased supply pressure in the overseas market [1]. - **持仓与成交**: The LME copper open interest decreased by 1,316 lots to 265,284 lots, showing cautious market trading sentiment. The domestic SHFE inventory continued to accumulate to 156,125 tons, a 1.48% increase from the previous week, and the rising inventory pressure suppressed the price [2]. b. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **供给端**: There have been frequent short - term disturbances. The Indonesian PTGresik smelter is under maintenance for 2 - 4 weeks due to equipment failure, affecting about 20,000 tons of production. New domestic production capacity is gradually being released, such as the 40,000 - ton copper strip project of Anhui Zhongcheng Copper Industry and the 35,000 - ton cold - rolled high - precision copper strip project of Fujian Guangmin Copper Industry, but it will take time for the capacity to be realized [3]. - **需求端**: Demand shows structural differentiation. The lithium - ion copper foil maintains high prosperity, with the July shipment volume increasing by 11.35% month - on - month, and the August operating rate is expected to rise to 78.75%. However, the traditional sectors are under pressure, with the August white - goods production schedule down 4.9% year - on - year, and the spot trading in North China is sluggish. In addition, the demand for solid - state battery anode current collectors is a long - term growth point [4]. - **库存端**: Global visible inventory has been continuously accumulating. On August 6, the LME inventory increased to 20,346 tons, and the SHFE inventory climbed to 156,000 tons, both reaching recent highs, indicating a marginal easing of the supply - demand contradiction [5]. c. Market Summary The copper price may continue the weak oscillatory pattern. The short - term support from smelter maintenance on the supply side is limited, and the expected release of new domestic production capacity and the widening overseas discount suppress price flexibility. On the demand side, the high growth of lithium - ion copper foil partially offsets the weakness in traditional sectors, but continuous inventory accumulation reflects a short - term situation of strong supply and weak demand. Considering the repeated disturbances of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations on market sentiment, the copper market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the next 1 - 2 weeks, with attention paid to inventory pressure and the US dollar trend [6]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **现货(升贴水)**: The price of SMM:1 copper decreased from 78,790 yuan/ton on August 5 to 78,500 yuan/ton on August 6, a 0.37% drop. The premium of premium copper decreased by 18.18% to 135 yuan/ton, the premium of flat - copper decreased by 40.91% to 65 yuan/ton, and the premium of wet - copper decreased by 100% to 0 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) discount narrowed by 6.98% to - 63 dollars/ton [8]. - **价格**: The SHFE copper price decreased from 78,500 yuan/ton on August 5 to 78,210 yuan/ton on August 6, a 0.37% drop, while the LME copper price increased by 0.41% to 9,674 dollars/ton [8]. - **库存**: The LME inventory increased by 8.41% to 20,346 tons, the SHFE inventory increased by 1.48% to 156,125 tons, and the COMEX inventory decreased by 0.03% to 263,104 short tons [8]. 3. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report includes multiple data charts such as China's PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper prices, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper prices, TC processing fees, CFTC copper open interest, LME copper net - long open interest analysis, Shanghai copper warrant volume, LME copper inventory change, COMEX copper inventory change, and SMM social inventory, with data sources from iFinD and Tonghui Futures Research and Development Department [9][11][14].

市场降温叠加库存再度施压，铜价短期区间回调 一、日度市场总结 铜期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差： 截至7月25日当周，沪铜主力合约价格从79820元/吨回落至79290元/吨，跌 幅约0.66%；LME铜价从9854.5美元/吨降至9796美元/吨，延续高位回调趋 势。现货升水显著收窄，升水铜升水环比从180元/吨跌至165元/吨，平水 铜升水从110元/吨降至85元/吨，显示现货供应压力增大。LME铜0-3贴水扩 大至-53.68美元/吨。 持仓与成交： LME铜持仓量增至27.04万手，但SHFE铜库存增至12.85万吨，多空博弈加 剧。上海市场临近月末持货商抛售换现情绪增强，下游采购仅维持刚需， 市场流动性边际转弱。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端： 短期扰动因素加剧。Newmont旗下RedChris矿因事故暂停运营，叠加嘉能可 Mount Isa矿于下周正式关闭，削弱全球铜矿供应弹性。但江铜赞比亚项目 投产补充加工端供应。整体冶炼端维持高位，进口铜到港及国产补充导致 上海地区垒库。 需求端： 淡季特征明显。铜线缆企业开工率环比下降2.07%至70.83%，预计下周进一 步降至70.30%，主 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The copper market is expected to remain weak in the next 1 - 2 weeks, with prices likely to fluctuate in the range of RMB 76,000 - 79,000 per ton, mainly due to weak demand, ample supply, and macro - level factors such as US tariff policies and potential delays in Fed rate cuts. [34] Group 2: Market Data Changes Sub - group 1: Main Contracts and Basis - On July 14, the SHFE copper price dropped to RMB 78,330 per ton, a decrease of RMB 140 from July 11. The LME price also declined, and the LME (0 - 3) basis widened, indicating short - term supply surplus. The premium of premium copper remained at RMB 0, and the discount of flat - copper remained at RMB - 50, suggesting weak spot demand. The discount of wet - copper narrowed, possibly indicating improved supply. [2][33] Sub - group 2: Position and Trading Volume - On July 14, the LME copper inventory soared to 34,379 tons, a significant increase of 11,000 tons from July 11, with a growth rate of 47.5%. The SHFE inventory also increased, but at a slower rate of 0.83%. The accumulation of inventory is bearish for copper prices. [3][33] Group 3: Industry Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Sub - group 1: Supply - China's copper concentrate imports in June decreased by 1.9% month - on - month but increased by 6.4% year - to - date, indicating overall growth in imports. The CSPT meeting decided not to set a reference processing fee for Q3, which may reflect tightness at the mine end and pressure on smelting profits, potentially leading to smelter production cuts. The 50% tariff on imported copper in the US may disrupt the supply chain, especially affecting Chile's exports. The suspension of production by Canada's Hudbay Minerals due to wildfires may temporarily reduce supply, but the impact is minor. [4][34] Sub - group 2: Demand - Domestic downstream restocked when copper prices rebounded but then reduced purchases, indicating unstable demand. Spot market transactions in Shandong and North China were light, with downstream being cautious before the contract change, mainly driven by rigid demand. This may suggest insufficient terminal demand, especially in the power and construction sectors. [5][34] Sub - group 3: Inventory - The continuous accumulation of LME and SHFE inventories, especially the significant increase in LME inventory, along with the rising COMEX inventory, indicates an increase in global visible inventory, strengthening the expectation of a supply - abundant market, which is unfavorable for prices. [6][34]