Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The copper price is likely to continue its weak oscillatory pattern. The short - term support from smelter maintenance on the supply side is limited. The expected release of new domestic production capacity and the widening overseas discount suppress price flexibility. On the demand side, the high growth of lithium - ion copper foil partially offsets the weakness in traditional sectors, but continuous inventory accumulation reflects a short - term situation of strong supply and weak demand. Considering the repeated disturbances of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations on market sentiment, the copper market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the next 1 - 2 weeks, with attention paid to inventory pressure and the US dollar trend [6]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **主力合约与基差**: On August 6, the price of the SHFE copper main contract slightly declined to 78,210 yuan/ton, a 0.37% drop from the previous trading day, and the LME copper price also fell to 9,634.5 dollars/ton. The domestic spot premium/discount weakened across the board, with the premium of flat - copper dropping to 65 yuan/ton, a 40.91% narrowing from the previous day, and the wet - copper even turning to par. The LME (0 - 3) discount widened to - 67.32 dollars/ton, indicating increased supply pressure in the overseas market [1]. - **持仓与成交**: The LME copper open interest decreased by 1,316 lots to 265,284 lots, showing cautious market trading sentiment. The domestic SHFE inventory continued to accumulate to 156,125 tons, a 1.48% increase from the previous week, and the rising inventory pressure suppressed the price [2]. b. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **供给端**: There have been frequent short - term disturbances. The Indonesian PTGresik smelter is under maintenance for 2 - 4 weeks due to equipment failure, affecting about 20,000 tons of production. New domestic production capacity is gradually being released, such as the 40,000 - ton copper strip project of Anhui Zhongcheng Copper Industry and the 35,000 - ton cold - rolled high - precision copper strip project of Fujian Guangmin Copper Industry, but it will take time for the capacity to be realized [3]. - **需求端**: Demand shows structural differentiation. The lithium - ion copper foil maintains high prosperity, with the July shipment volume increasing by 11.35% month - on - month, and the August operating rate is expected to rise to 78.75%. However, the traditional sectors are under pressure, with the August white - goods production schedule down 4.9% year - on - year, and the spot trading in North China is sluggish. In addition, the demand for solid - state battery anode current collectors is a long - term growth point [4]. - **库存端**: Global visible inventory has been continuously accumulating. On August 6, the LME inventory increased to 20,346 tons, and the SHFE inventory climbed to 156,000 tons, both reaching recent highs, indicating a marginal easing of the supply - demand contradiction [5]. c. Market Summary The copper price may continue the weak oscillatory pattern. The short - term support from smelter maintenance on the supply side is limited, and the expected release of new domestic production capacity and the widening overseas discount suppress price flexibility. On the demand side, the high growth of lithium - ion copper foil partially offsets the weakness in traditional sectors, but continuous inventory accumulation reflects a short - term situation of strong supply and weak demand. Considering the repeated disturbances of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations on market sentiment, the copper market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the next 1 - 2 weeks, with attention paid to inventory pressure and the US dollar trend [6]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **现货(升贴水)**: The price of SMM:1 copper decreased from 78,790 yuan/ton on August 5 to 78,500 yuan/ton on August 6, a 0.37% drop. The premium of premium copper decreased by 18.18% to 135 yuan/ton, the premium of flat - copper decreased by 40.91% to 65 yuan/ton, and the premium of wet - copper decreased by 100% to 0 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) discount narrowed by 6.98% to - 63 dollars/ton [8]. - **价格**: The SHFE copper price decreased from 78,500 yuan/ton on August 5 to 78,210 yuan/ton on August 6, a 0.37% drop, while the LME copper price increased by 0.41% to 9,674 dollars/ton [8]. - **库存**: The LME inventory increased by 8.41% to 20,346 tons, the SHFE inventory increased by 1.48% to 156,125 tons, and the COMEX inventory decreased by 0.03% to 263,104 short tons [8]. 3. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report includes multiple data charts such as China's PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper prices, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper prices, TC processing fees, CFTC copper open interest, LME copper net - long open interest analysis, Shanghai copper warrant volume, LME copper inventory change, COMEX copper inventory change, and SMM social inventory, with data sources from iFinD and Tonghui Futures Research and Development Department [9][11][14].

市场降温叠加库存再度施压，铜价短期区间回调 一、日度市场总结 铜期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差： 截至7月25日当周，沪铜主力合约价格从79820元/吨回落至79290元/吨，跌 幅约0.66%；LME铜价从9854.5美元/吨降至9796美元/吨，延续高位回调趋 势。现货升水显著收窄，升水铜升水环比从180元/吨跌至165元/吨，平水 铜升水从110元/吨降至85元/吨，显示现货供应压力增大。LME铜0-3贴水扩 大至-53.68美元/吨。 持仓与成交： LME铜持仓量增至27.04万手，但SHFE铜库存增至12.85万吨，多空博弈加 剧。上海市场临近月末持货商抛售换现情绪增强，下游采购仅维持刚需， 市场流动性边际转弱。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端： 短期扰动因素加剧。Newmont旗下RedChris矿因事故暂停运营，叠加嘉能可 Mount Isa矿于下周正式关闭，削弱全球铜矿供应弹性。但江铜赞比亚项目 投产补充加工端供应。整体冶炼端维持高位，进口铜到港及国产补充导致 上海地区垒库。 需求端： 淡季特征明显。铜线缆企业开工率环比下降2.07%至70.83%，预计下周进一 步降至70.30%，主 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The copper market is expected to remain weak in the next 1 - 2 weeks, with prices likely to fluctuate in the range of RMB 76,000 - 79,000 per ton, mainly due to weak demand, ample supply, and macro - level factors such as US tariff policies and potential delays in Fed rate cuts. [34] Group 2: Market Data Changes Sub - group 1: Main Contracts and Basis - On July 14, the SHFE copper price dropped to RMB 78,330 per ton, a decrease of RMB 140 from July 11. The LME price also declined, and the LME (0 - 3) basis widened, indicating short - term supply surplus. The premium of premium copper remained at RMB 0, and the discount of flat - copper remained at RMB - 50, suggesting weak spot demand. The discount of wet - copper narrowed, possibly indicating improved supply. [2][33] Sub - group 2: Position and Trading Volume - On July 14, the LME copper inventory soared to 34,379 tons, a significant increase of 11,000 tons from July 11, with a growth rate of 47.5%. The SHFE inventory also increased, but at a slower rate of 0.83%. The accumulation of inventory is bearish for copper prices. [3][33] Group 3: Industry Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Sub - group 1: Supply - China's copper concentrate imports in June decreased by 1.9% month - on - month but increased by 6.4% year - to - date, indicating overall growth in imports. The CSPT meeting decided not to set a reference processing fee for Q3, which may reflect tightness at the mine end and pressure on smelting profits, potentially leading to smelter production cuts. The 50% tariff on imported copper in the US may disrupt the supply chain, especially affecting Chile's exports. The suspension of production by Canada's Hudbay Minerals due to wildfires may temporarily reduce supply, but the impact is minor. [4][34] Sub - group 2: Demand - Domestic downstream restocked when copper prices rebounded but then reduced purchases, indicating unstable demand. Spot market transactions in Shandong and North China were light, with downstream being cautious before the contract change, mainly driven by rigid demand. This may suggest insufficient terminal demand, especially in the power and construction sectors. [5][34] Sub - group 3: Inventory - The continuous accumulation of LME and SHFE inventories, especially the significant increase in LME inventory, along with the rising COMEX inventory, indicates an increase in global visible inventory, strengthening the expectation of a supply - abundant market, which is unfavorable for prices. [6][34]