Core Viewpoint - Chongqing Brewery reported a decline in both revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, marking the first time in a decade that both metrics have decreased in the interim report [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a sales volume of 1.8008 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 0.95% [1]. - Revenue for the first half was 8.839 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.24% year-on-year [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 865 million yuan, down 4.03% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2, revenue was 4.484 billion yuan, a decline of 1.84% year-on-year, while net profit was 392 million yuan, down 12.7% year-on-year [1]. Product Segmentation - The company relies heavily on premium and mainstream products, which together account for over 95% of revenue [1]. - Revenue from premium products was 5.265 billion yuan, a marginal increase of 0.04% year-on-year [1]. - Revenue from mainstream products was 3.145 billion yuan, a decline of 0.92% year-on-year [1]. - Revenue from economy products was 196 million yuan, an increase of 5.39% year-on-year [1]. Market Conditions - The consumption market is still in a recovery phase with uncertainties, and competition has intensified due to increased investments from national beer companies [2]. - The southern market, which had seen rapid growth in previous years, experienced a revenue decline of 1.47% in the first half [2]. Strategic Initiatives - Chongqing Brewery announced a 600 million yuan capital increase to accelerate its expansion in the South China market [2]. - The company is focusing on product innovation and has launched new products in both the craft beer segment and non-beer categories, including an energy drink [2]. - The number of distributors increased by 11 to a total of 3,091 by the end of the reporting period [2]. Company Background - Chongqing Brewery is a member of the Carlsberg Group, one of the world's three largest beer companies [2]. - The company was established in 1958 and listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 1997, with Carlsberg becoming the majority shareholder through multiple acquisitions [2]. - Carlsberg Hong Kong and Carlsberg Chongqing are the largest shareholders, holding a combined 60% stake [2]. Industry Position - Chongqing Brewery ranks fifth among publicly listed companies in the Chinese beer industry [3].

Core Insights - The CEO of Budweiser Group, Michel Doukeris, stated that the company's performance in the Chinese and Brazilian markets for Q2 was below expectations, primarily due to a decline in the on-premise channel [1][5][7] - Budweiser's sales in China decreased by 7.4% in Q2, with revenue down by 6.4%, although revenue per hectoliter increased by 1.1% due to a positive brand mix [5][10] - The overall beer market in China is experiencing a slowdown, with Budweiser's performance lagging behind the industry average, but the company remains optimistic about future recovery [7][10] Company Performance - Budweiser Group's total volumes decreased by 1.9% in Q2, while revenue increased by 3% and EBITDA grew by 6.5% [10][19] - The underlying EPS increased by 8.7% in USD terms, and revenue per hectoliter rose by 4.9% [10][19] - Despite selling fewer beers, Budweiser's revenue and profits have grown, indicating effective cost management and pricing strategies [9][10] Strategic Adjustments - Budweiser is focusing on rebalancing its on-premise and off-premise channel strategies in China, with an emphasis on enhancing capabilities in the off-premise channel [12][14] - The company is investing in lower-priced products to better align with off-premise consumer demand, shifting from a high-end focus [17][19] - Budweiser is collaborating with wholesalers to improve the sales team's capabilities and expand distribution in underdeveloped regions [19] Market Outlook - The non-on-premise channel currently accounts for about 50% of Budweiser's business in China, which is below the industry average of 60%, indicating significant growth potential [17] - The company anticipates that the impact of current market challenges will diminish over time, leading to a more positive sales trend in the industry [7][10] - Budweiser's management believes that the ongoing investments in the off-premise channel will yield substantial returns as the market evolves [14][19]

Core Viewpoint - 2024 is a challenging year for Chongqing Beer, experiencing its first decline in both revenue and net profit since 2015 due to extreme weather and adverse external conditions [1][2]. Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is approximately 14.645 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.15% - Net profit attributable to shareholders is about 1.115 billion yuan, down 16.61% compared to the previous year [2]. Market Dynamics - The decline in local brand sales is attributed to pressure on the dining channel, prompting the company to shift focus towards non-on-premise channels [5][11]. - Local brand revenue is nearly 8.9 billion yuan, down over 3%, while international brand revenue is around 5.3 billion yuan, showing a slight increase [12]. Strategic Adjustments - The company plans to enhance its product offerings in non-on-premise channels, including high-end products and canned packaging [5][17]. - In 2025, marketing expenditures will be adjusted to favor more attractive non-on-premise channels [18][20]. Production Capacity and Innovation - The Carlsberg Foshan factory, a global flagship brewery, has an annual production capacity of 500,000 kiloliters and is recognized for its advanced manufacturing and sustainability practices [10][11]. - The company has introduced new products and packaging, particularly for local brands, to meet diverse consumer needs [16]. Inventory Management - The company completed its inventory reduction efforts by the end of last year, positioning itself for a healthier market presence in 2024 [6][16].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese beer industry is expected to benefit from favorable policies aimed at promoting consumption and stabilizing growth in 2025, despite facing challenges such as intensified competition, cost fluctuations, and slower-than-expected consumer recovery [1] Group 1: Company Performance - In 2024, Chongqing Beer reported a revenue of 14.645 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.15% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.115 billion yuan, down 16.61% year-on-year [1] - In Q1 2025, Chongqing Beer achieved a revenue of 4.355 billion yuan, an increase of 1.46% year-on-year, and a net profit of 473 million yuan, up 4.59% year-on-year [1][2] Group 2: Product Segmentation - Chongqing Beer categorizes its products based on consumer price: high-end (8 yuan and above), mainstream (4 to 8 yuan), and economy (below 4 yuan), with high-end products generating the highest revenue [2] - In Q1 2025, high-end beer products generated 2.572 billion yuan in revenue, a growth of 1.21%, while mainstream beer products generated 1.52 billion yuan, growing by 1.99% [2] Group 3: Industry Trends - The Chinese beer industry has been in a continuous decline since reaching its peak production in 2013, with a 30.1% decrease in total production by 2024 compared to 2013 [2] - The industry is shifting towards high-end products, with a focus on diversifying offerings beyond traditional mainstream beers to include craft beers, flavored beers, and low-alcohol options [2][3] Group 4: Channel Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its high-end product offerings in non-on-trade channels (supermarkets, convenience stores, e-commerce, etc.), which is seen as a significant growth area [3] - Other beer manufacturers are also increasing their efforts in non-on-trade channels, leading to intensified competition in this space [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 4.355 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.46%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 473 million yuan, up 4.59% year-on-year, slightly exceeding expectations [1] - The company's beer business saw a recovery in sales volume, with a total of 883,500 tons sold in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.93% [2] - Cost improvements have driven profitability enhancements, with gross margin and net margin increasing by 0.52 and 0.67 percentage points year-on-year to 48.42% and 21.61%, respectively [4] - The company is expected to focus on non-current drinking channels and strengthen core market penetration, with stable product structure and controlled expense ratios [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 4.355 billion yuan, with a net profit of 473 million yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 467 million yuan, all showing positive year-on-year growth [1] - The sales volume for the beer business was 883,500 tons, with an average price per ton of 4,804 yuan, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.34% year-on-year [2] Product and Regional Performance - High-end beer revenue reached 2.603 billion yuan, up 1.21% year-on-year, while mainstream beer revenue was 1.550 billion yuan, up 1.99% year-on-year [2] - The company’s revenue from different regions showed balanced performance, with the Northwest, Central, and Southern regions generating revenues of 1.178 billion, 1.835 billion, and 1.231 billion yuan, respectively [3] Cost and Profitability - The company’s operating cash flow increased by 24.88% year-on-year to 1.350 billion yuan, indicating strong cash flow performance [4] - The cost per ton decreased by 1.45% year-on-year to 2,543 yuan, attributed to lower raw material and packaging costs [4] Future Outlook - Revenue growth is projected at 2.0%, 2.6%, and 2.6% for 2025-2027, with net profit growth expected at 14.4%, 4.4%, and 4.3% for the same period [5] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.6, 2.8, and 2.9 yuan per share, respectively, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21.9, 21.0, and 20.1 [5]