Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 8.839 billion yuan in H1 2025, a slight decrease of 0.24% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 865 million yuan, down 4.03% year-on-year [1] - The company is focusing on expanding its non-current drinking channels and strengthening its core market, although the product structure is slightly pressured due to weak performance in the catering channel [6][11] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In H1 2025, the company sold 1.8008 million tons of beer, a year-on-year increase of 0.95%, with an average price of 4,908 yuan per ton, down 1.18% year-on-year [2] - The revenue breakdown shows that high-end beer revenue was 5.265 billion yuan (up 0.04% year-on-year), mainstream beer revenue was 3.145 billion yuan (down 0.92%), and economy beer revenue was 196 million yuan (up 5.39%) [2] Regional Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported revenues of 2.596 billion yuan in the Northwest region (up 1.75% year-on-year), 3.532 billion yuan in the Central region (down 0.7%), and 2.479 billion yuan in the Southern region (down 1.47%) [4] Cost and Profitability - The company's gross margin and net margin for H1 2025 were 49.83% and 19.55%, respectively, with a year-on-year change of +0.62% and -0.76 percentage points [5] - The operating cash flow for H1 2025 was 2.906 billion yuan, an increase of 13.80% year-on-year [5] Future Projections - Revenue growth is projected at 0.6% for 2025, with net profit growth of 7.7% [11] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 2.5 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22.3 [12]

Core Insights - The beer sales are being tested due to weak consumption in on-premise channels like dining and nightlife [1][2] - Both Chongqing Beer and Budweiser APAC reported declines in revenue and profit in their recent financial results [1][4] Group 1: Financial Performance - Chongqing Beer reported a revenue of 8.839 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a slight decrease of 0.24% year-on-year, with a net profit of 865 million yuan, down 4.03% [1] - Budweiser APAC's revenue for the first half of the year was 3.136 billion USD, reflecting a 5.6% decline year-on-year, with a 7.4% drop in sales volume in China during Q2 [1][4] Group 2: Market Trends - The production of beer by large-scale enterprises in China decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, totaling 19.044 million kiloliters in the first half of the year [2] - Despite the weak on-premise sales, the high-end beer segment continues to grow, with Chongqing Beer reporting that high-end beer (priced above 8 yuan) accounted for the highest revenue share at 5.265 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.04% [2] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Chongqing Beer is focusing on expanding its non-on-premise market by optimizing product structure and increasing the proportion of canned products, achieving a nearly 29% increase in canning rate for non-on-premise channels [3] - The company launched nearly 30 new products in the first half of the year, including craft beers and flavored beverages, to cater to diverse consumer preferences [3] - Budweiser APAC is also enhancing its non-on-premise channel strategy, with a focus on high-end products, and has seen growth in sales and revenue contributions from this segment [4]

Core Viewpoint - Beer manufacturers are increasingly focusing on non-on-trade markets such as instant retail due to weak performance in on-trade channels like restaurants and nightlife [1][2][3] Group 1: Company Performance - Chongqing Beer reported a revenue of 8.839 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a slight decrease of 0.24% year-on-year, with a net profit of 865 million yuan, down 4.03% [2] - Budweiser APAC's second-quarter sales in China fell by 7.4%, with revenue down 6.4%, leading to a total revenue of 3.136 billion USD in the first half, a decline of 5.6% year-on-year [2] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported a 0.3% year-on-year decline in beer production among large-scale breweries in China, totaling 19.044 million kiloliters in the first half of the year [3] Group 2: Market Trends - Despite weak on-trade sales, the high-end beer segment continues to grow, with Chongqing Beer’s high-end products (priced above 8 yuan) generating 5.265 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.04% [3] - Chongqing Beer’s revenue per 100 liters of beer decreased by 1.2% year-on-year to 491 yuan, while beer sales volume increased by 0.95% to 1.8 million kiloliters [3] - The Northwest region remains a strong revenue source for Chongqing Beer, with a 1.75% year-on-year growth to 2.596 billion yuan, while the Central and Southern regions saw declines of 0.7% and 1.47% respectively [3] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Companies are enhancing their product offerings and expanding into non-on-trade channels, with Chongqing Beer launching nearly 30 new products and various new packaging options in the first half of the year [5][6] - Chongqing Beer has seen a nearly 29% increase in the canning rate for non-on-trade channels, with brands like Wusu, 1664, and Carlsberg showing double-digit growth in canning rates [6] - Budweiser APAC is focusing on high-end products in non-on-trade channels, with sales and revenue contributions from these channels expected to grow by the first half of 2025 [6]

Core Insights - Chongqing Brewery reported a slight decline in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue at 8.839 billion yuan, down 0.24% year-on-year, and total profit at 2.228 billion yuan, down 0.1% year-on-year [1] - The company experienced a 13.8% increase in net cash flow from operating activities, amounting to 2.906 billion yuan [1] - The decline in revenue and profit is attributed to upgraded consumer demand and weak performance in traditional on-premise channels [1] Revenue Breakdown - High-end (8 yuan and above) and economy (below 4 yuan) products saw revenue growth, while mainstream products (4 to 8 yuan) experienced a decline [2] - Revenue from high-end products reached 5.265 billion yuan, up 0.04%, and economy products generated 196 million yuan, up 5.39% [2] - Mainstream products generated 3.145 billion yuan, down 0.92% [2] Regional Performance - The Northwest region, as a base market, maintained revenue growth, with revenues of 2.596 billion yuan, while the Central and Southern regions saw declines [2] - Revenue for the Central region was 3.532 billion yuan, down 0.7%, and for the Southern region was 2.479 billion yuan, down 1.47% [2] - Increased sales investment has pressured revenue growth in some regions, particularly in the Southern and Central regions due to intense industry competition [2] Product Innovation - The company launched nearly 30 new products in the first half of the year, including various beer and beverage types [2] - Notable new products include "Carlsberg Smooth 5°," "Wusu Beer Tianshan Original Brew," and "Chongqing Craft Whole Wheat Beer 1L" [2] Sales and Distribution Strategy - The company has established a dedicated team for instant retail, focusing on collaboration with various regions and platforms to manage pricing and strategic partnerships [3] - The management emphasized the importance of meeting consumer convenience through membership stores, discount stores, and instant retail formats [3] - The company aims to provide differentiated products across various platforms to address pricing issues and enhance product innovation capabilities [3]

Core Viewpoint - Despite intense competition in the industry, Chongqing Beer Co., Ltd. is actively embracing change, identifying opportunities, optimizing strategies, and strengthening execution to explore new profit growth spaces in a stagnant market [1][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Chongqing Beer achieved a sales volume of 1.8008 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 0.95%, outperforming the industry average, which saw a total beer production of 19.044 million kiloliters, a decline of 0.3% [1][4]. - The company reported operating revenue of 8.839 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 865 million yuan [1]. Product Strategy - Chongqing Beer launched nearly 30 new products in the first half of 2025, focusing on expanding non-on-trade channels and enhancing the proportion of canned products [3][4]. - The revenue breakdown by product category showed high-end products generating 5.265 billion yuan, mainstream products 3.145 billion yuan (a slight decline of 0.92%), and economy products 195 million yuan (an increase of 5.39%) [4]. Regional Performance - The Northwest region achieved revenue of 2.596 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.75%, while the Central and Southern regions experienced slight declines due to external competition and consumption environment pressures [4]. Marketing and Brand Development - The company is enhancing marketing innovation by focusing on local culture and consumption scenarios, which has helped maintain competitive advantages [5][6]. - Chongqing Beer is actively engaging in local brand promotions and events, such as beer festivals, to strengthen brand image and market presence [5]. Non-On-Trade Channel Expansion - The management emphasized the growth of non-on-trade channels, with double-digit growth in the canned product rate for several brands in the second quarter [6][8]. - The company plans to continue investing in non-on-trade channels and launching new products, particularly in the high-end segment [6]. Future Outlook - The management expects to continue benefiting from commodity price advantages, with no significant changes anticipated for the next year [8]. - The company is focusing on the development of new beverage products and exploring innovative packaging and flavors to meet diverse consumer demands [7][8].

重庆啤酒业绩在经历一年的低迷后，复苏势头仍未显现。8月14日，重庆啤酒发布半年报显示，2025年 上半年，其实现营收88.39亿元，同比减少0.24%；净利润为8.65亿元，同比减少4.03%，延续了去年的 疲软态势。 对于此次营收净利润下滑，在8月15日举办的业绩说明会上，重庆啤酒方面回复《华夏时报》记者提出 的问题表示，"2025年上半年公司面临诸多外部挑战，啤酒市场竞争也更加激烈，公司积极拥抱变化、 洞察机会、优化策略、强化执行，保持了生意平稳。" 相比于营收净利润双下滑，今年上半年，重庆啤酒销量则止住下跌趋势，实现销量180.08万千升，同比 增长0.95%。与之相对应的，重庆啤酒吨价继续下滑，根据营收销量计算，2025年上半年，重庆啤酒吨 价为4908元，2023年、2024年则分别为4942元、4923元。 按消费价格划分，重庆啤酒旗下包括消费价格8元及以上的高档、4元至8元的主流以及4元以下的经济产 品。2025年上半年，三者营收占比分别为59.6%、35.6%、2.2%。其中高档产品主要代表品牌是嘉士 伯、乐堡、1664、红乌苏等；主流产品是重庆、乌苏、大理、山城、西夏等，经济产品为山城、西夏 ...

Core Viewpoint - The beer industry in China is experiencing a decline, with production and consumption trends indicating a challenging market environment. The industry's growth strategies, such as premiumization, are no longer sufficient to drive revenue increases as consumer preferences shift away from beer [5][11][18]. Industry Trends - Beer production among major domestic breweries decreased by 4.9% year-on-year in the first two months of 2025 [6]. - The decline in beer production has been ongoing since 2013, despite revenue growth due to premiumization and price increases by major players [7][8]. - Major breweries have adopted high-end pricing strategies, with products priced above 10 yuan, contributing to revenue growth in previous years [9][10]. Consumer Behavior - The consumption of beer is divided into two categories: off-premise (purchased for home consumption) and on-premise (consumed immediately at venues) [12]. - Approximately 60% of beer consumption in China occurs in on-premise settings, which have been negatively impacted by the closure of many KTVs and bars [13]. - Changing consumer preferences indicate a shift away from beer, with many opting for lower consumption levels and alternative beverages like milk tea [14]. Strategic Responses - In response to declining domestic sales, breweries are exploring globalization, with beer exports increasing by nearly 50% since 2019, reaching 62.1 million liters in 2023 [16]. - Companies are diversifying their product lines, with some breweries venturing into other beverage categories, such as soft drinks and liquor [17].

Core Viewpoint - The beer industry is experiencing a decline, with a significant drop in production and changing consumer preferences leading to challenges for major companies [2][3][14]. Production Trends - In the first two months of 2025, the production of large-scale domestic beer enterprises decreased by 4.9% year-on-year [3]. - The downward trend in beer production has been ongoing since 2013, despite revenue growth during that period due to premiumization and price increases by major companies [4][7]. Market Dynamics - Major beer companies have adopted a strategy of high-end product offerings, with many launching beers priced above 10 yuan [9]. - Examples include Chongqing Beer and Carlsberg's restructuring to focus on mid-to-high-end products, and premium offerings from companies like China Resources and Budweiser [10][11]. Consumer Behavior - The decline in beer consumption is attributed to fewer drinking occasions and changing preferences, with many consumers opting for lower alcohol consumption [14][17]. - Data indicates that over half of consumers typically drink only 1-2 bottles at a time, reflecting a trend towards moderation [19]. Industry Response - Despite domestic sales declines, beer exports have increased, with a reported 50% growth since 2019, reaching 62.1 million liters in 2023 [21]. - Companies are diversifying their product lines, with examples including Qingdao Beer acquiring a yellow wine brand and other breweries venturing into soft drinks and liquor [22]. Conclusion - The beer industry is at a critical juncture, needing to identify new growth opportunities as the initial market excitement has waned [23].

Core Insights - Carlsberg China has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Guangshunxing, a top 100 restaurant company in China, to establish a deep partnership aimed at enhancing market penetration of Carlsberg's brands in high-quality Cantonese dining channels [1][4] - The collaboration will focus on product synergy, scene creation, and marketing linkage, aiming to provide a more quality-driven and scenario-based dining experience [1][4] Group 1: Partnership Details - Carlsberg China will become the core beer supplier for Guangshunxing's nationwide stores, covering a diverse brand portfolio including Carlsberg, Lebo, 1664, Wusu, and Jing A [4] - The partnership will leverage star IP collaborations, customized meal packages, seasonal menus, and co-created dining experiences to enhance various dining scenarios such as formal meals, late-night snacks, and social gatherings [4][7] Group 2: Strategic Goals - The cooperation is seen as a significant move for resource complementarity and mutual benefits, with Carlsberg aiming to create more enjoyable moments for consumers by integrating beer culture with culinary experiences [4][7] - Future plans include deepening the partnership through consumer experience, brand influence, and product innovation, with a commitment to invest high-quality resources and professional teams [4][7] Group 3: Company Backgrounds - Guangshunxing, founded in 2017, has expanded to 650 stores nationwide and aims to be a leading brand in Cantonese cuisine, focusing on fresh, healthy, and high-quality dining experiences [7] - Carlsberg China is one of the top five beer companies in China, operating a network of 27 breweries and a comprehensive market sales network, offering a mix of local and international brands to meet diverse consumer needs [7]

Summary of Chongqing Brewery Corporate Day Company Overview - **Company**: Chongqing Brewery (600132.SS) - **Industry**: Consumer & Leisure Key Takeaways Recent Updates - The company reported a soft recovery in on-trade channels after a brief uptick in January-February due to Chinese New Year (CNY) celebrations - The channel mix for 1Q remained stable at 45:55 for on-trade/off-trade - Year-to-date (YTD) performance for Carlsberg/Tuborg brands aligns with 1Q results, while 1664/Red Wusu show strong performance in off-trade channels [2][3] Premiumization Strategy - Chongqing Brewery aims to outperform the industry in volume by 2025, focusing on premiumization in off-trade channels - The ratio of canned beer in 1Q grew by 2-3 percentage points year-over-year (yoy) to reach 29-30% - The company plans to accelerate the growth of premium canned products to enhance average selling price (ASP) and gross profit margin (GPM), particularly with continued double-digit percentage (DD%) growth in canned 1664 [2][3][7] Margin Outlook - The company expects cost benefits to persist in 2025 due to locked barley prices, although this will be partially offset by increased depreciation and amortization (D&A) from the Foshan factory - Efforts are being made to maintain a stable selling expense ratio in 2025, with more investments directed towards off-trade channels [2][3] Instant Delivery - Management views instant delivery services as advantageous for market expansion and new product launches - Partnerships with delivery platforms are typically initiated by headquarters and executed by local distributors [2][8] Beyond Beer Vision - The company is expanding into soft drinks, leveraging its beer distribution network and production capabilities - New products include the energy drink "Dianchi" and soda drink "Tianshan Fresh Fruit Village," with a focus on increasing presence in dining channels [2][9] Financial Projections - The 12-month price target is set at Rmb53.6, based on a 19.0x 2026E P/E ratio, reflecting a neutral rating - Revenue projections for 2025 are Rmb15,155.9 million, with EBITDA expected to reach Rmb3,930.1 million [10][13] Risks - Potential risks include slower or faster-than-expected growth of the Wusu brand, fluctuations in ASP, and variations in cost trends [10] Additional Insights - The company is actively exploring new product categories, including tea-flavored beer under the Dali brand - Management believes that the impacts of channel mix shifts and reduced consumption frequency are outweighed by the positive results from product and channel strategies [2][7] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding Chongqing Brewery's current performance, strategic initiatives, and future outlook.