山城啤酒"内战"戛然而止。 （作者｜周琦编辑｜张广凯） 1月6日，重庆啤酒一纸公告，给持续五年的纠纷按下暂停键。 公告显示，公司与参股公司重庆嘉威啤酒有限公司（下称"重庆嘉威"）在二审阶段正式签署《调解协议》，诉讼程序以调解结案。 公司公告 这意味着，从2020年首起诉讼算起，拉锯数年的包销合同纠纷终于走出法院，回到生意场。 截至1月7日收盘，重庆啤酒报52.39元/股，市值为253.55亿元。 根据协议，重庆啤酒或其子公司将向嘉威一次性支付1亿元（不含税），用以结清截至2025年12月31日前全部的"量价差结算款"。 款项支付完成后，双方就此前包销协议履行相关事项的所有争议将终结，后续互不索赔、互不追究责任。 更重要的是，双方设定了三年过渡期。 在重庆啤酒12月发布的"拟签订《调解协议》公告"中，双方也就过渡期的合作方式，达成约定。 公司公告 合作的最后三年里，重庆啤酒每年固定向重庆嘉威采购14.26万千升啤酒，平均采购价4000元/千升（不含增值税），按年度结算多退少补。 若嘉威全年销量不足14.26万千升，公司须次年3月31日前补量；补量未足，按缺口阶梯现金补偿（≤11万千升部分2500元/千升，余18 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese beer industry is undergoing structural adjustments and a transformation in consumer logic, with Chongqing Beer exploring a path that balances local culture and global vision through a dual strategy of local and international brands [2][4]. Product and Channel Transformation - Chongqing Beer has focused on continuous upgrades in product structure and strategic reshaping of channel resources, responding to the slowing growth of the beer industry by innovating in product offerings and channel strategies [2][3]. - The company has launched approximately 30 new products this year, including craft beers, tea beers, and low-alcohol options, while also expanding into non-beer categories like fruit drinks and energy drinks [3]. - The shift towards non-on-premise channels has seen over half of the company's sales coming from these channels, with partnerships established with platforms like Meituan and JD Daojia to enhance distribution [3]. Local and International Brand Synergy - The combination of local and international brands is a key competitive advantage for Chongqing Beer, with local brands accounting for over 70% of total sales, particularly in base markets like Chongqing [4][5]. - Local brands are deeply connected to regional culture, while international brands bring a sense of fashion and vitality, allowing for complementary growth and channel synergy [5][6]. Geographic Expansion and Category Diversification - Chongqing Beer plans to continue its "big city strategy" to enhance its presence in high-potential markets, particularly in South China, where local production has been established to reduce logistics costs [6][7]. - The company aims to upgrade its product structure and accelerate its expansion into non-beer categories, focusing on deeper consumer engagement and continuous iteration of new products [7]. Digitalization and Operational Efficiency - The company emphasizes the role of digital tools in enhancing channel efficiency, aiming for better inventory management and market insights through data optimization [7]. - Continuous iteration is highlighted as a crucial strategy for responding to competition from new beverage brands and the entry of liquor companies into the beer market, with a focus on rich product offerings and efficient channels [7].

Core Insights - The Chinese beer industry is undergoing structural adjustments and a transformation in consumer logic, with companies like Chongqing Beer exploring a dual strategy of local and international brand integration to adapt to these changes [1][4] Group 1: Company Performance - Chongqing Beer reported a sales volume of 2.6681 million kiloliters and revenue of 13.059 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with an operating profit of 3.233 billion yuan [1] - The company's president emphasized that the stable performance is attributed to continuous optimization in product structure, channel focus, and brand combination [1] Group 2: Product and Channel Innovation - The company is focusing on two main areas for innovation: continuous upgrading of product structure and strategic reshaping of channel resources [2] - Chongqing Beer has launched approximately 30 new products this year, including craft beers, tea beers, and low-alcohol beers, while also expanding into non-beer categories like fruit drinks and energy drinks [2][5] - The company is shifting resources towards non-on-premise channels, with over half of its sales now coming from these channels, and has partnered with various instant retail platforms [2] Group 3: Brand Strategy - Chongqing Beer's competitive advantage lies in its combination of local and international brands, with local brands accounting for over 70% of total sales [3] - The local brand "Wusu Beer" has become a representative national brand, while "Chongqing Beer" has established a strong presence in regional markets [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company anticipates that the Chinese beer market will continue to grow, shifting from quantity-driven growth to quality-driven growth [4] - Chongqing Beer plans to enhance its geographical presence, upgrade its brands, and optimize its channels to achieve sustainable and quality growth [4][5] - The company is also focusing on digitalization to improve channel efficiency and market responsiveness [5]

Core Insights - The Chinese beer industry is undergoing structural adjustments and a transformation in consumer logic, with companies like Chongqing Beer exploring a dual strategy of local and international branding to adapt to these changes [1][3] Product and Channel Transformation - Chongqing Beer is focusing on product structure upgrades and strategic channel resource reallocation to address the slowing growth in the beer industry [2] - The company has launched approximately 30 new products this year, including craft beers and non-beer beverages, to capture evolving consumer preferences [2] - Non-on-premise channel sales now account for over half of the company's total sales, with partnerships established with major instant retail platforms [2] Local and International Brand Synergy - The combination of local and international brands is a key competitive advantage for Chongqing Beer, with local brands accounting for over 70% of total sales [3] - The company’s local brands, such as "Wusu Beer" and "Chongqing Beer," dominate the market share in their respective regions, enhancing brand recognition and consumer loyalty [3] Geographic Expansion and Efficiency Improvement - Chongqing Beer plans to continue its "big city strategy" to deepen its market presence in high-potential areas, particularly in South China [4] - The establishment of the Foshan brewery has improved supply chain efficiency and reduced logistics costs, supporting the company's growth in the Greater Bay Area [4] Brand and Category Development - The company aims to upgrade its product structure and expand into non-beer categories to meet diverse consumer demands [5] - Emphasis is placed on continuous iteration and gradual market penetration rather than seeking immediate blockbuster products [5] Digitalization and Operational Efficiency - The company is leveraging digital tools to enhance channel efficiency, optimize inventory management, and improve market responsiveness [5] - Continuous iteration is highlighted as a crucial strategy to navigate competition from new beverage brands and adapt to changing consumer preferences [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Insights - The company is actively promoting the high-end non-dining segment, with effective channel strategies driving structural improvements. In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 41.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, with a slight decline in volume but an increase in price [2][4]. - Cost benefits continue to drive gross margin improvements, although expenses and tax rate adjustments have negatively impacted profitability. In Q3 2025, the company’s gross margin increased by 1.7 percentage points, while the net profit margin decreased by 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]. - The company aims to expand its market share and embrace the high-end non-dining trend, anticipating a recovery in industry demand. The revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 149.37 billion, 152.06 billion, and 154.57 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 12.36 billion, 12.85 billion, and 13.31 billion yuan [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 130.59 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.03% year-on-year, and a net profit of 12.41 billion yuan, down 6.83% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 42.20 billion yuan, with a net profit of 3.76 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.71% [1][2]. - The company’s beer revenue for the first three quarters reached 127.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, with volume and price changes of +0.4% and -0.4%, respectively [2]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The company’s cost per ton decreased by 2.3% year-on-year in Q3 2025, contributing to a gross margin increase of 1.7 percentage points. However, the increase in sales and management expenses, along with a higher tax rate, led to a decrease in the net profit margin [3][4]. Future Outlook - The company plans to continue expanding its market share and is optimistic about the recovery of the industry, driven by ongoing consumer policy support. The long-term outlook for the beer industry remains positive, with significant upgrade potential [4].

Core Viewpoint - Chongqing Brewery maintains stable performance in a complex market environment, with sales and revenue remaining largely flat compared to the previous year, while net profit shows a slight decline [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Chongqing Brewery achieved a sales volume of 2.6681 million kiloliters and revenue of 13.059 billion yuan, which is roughly the same as the previous year [1] - The net profit for the same period was 1.241 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.83% [1] Group 2: Product Strategy - The company continues to optimize its product structure and accelerate the launch of new products, including large-capacity beers and innovative flavors [1] - New products include "Wusu Craft Big Red Robe Beer" 1L, "Mountain City Longjing Green Tea Craft" 1L, and "Dali Craft" 1L, as well as "Fenghua Xueyue Green Grape Low-Alcohol Beer" [1][2] Group 3: Market Expansion Initiatives - Chongqing Brewery is expanding into the beverage category with new products like "Tianshan Fresh Fruit Orchard" apple and white peach flavored sodas, aiming to revitalize the brand and explore new market opportunities [2] - The company engages in sports marketing, becoming the official strategic partner of the 2025 Chongqing Super League and collaborating with the Guangdong Super League [2] - In the dining scene, "Wusu Beer" is deepening consumer recognition through partnerships with "Wusu Barbecue" and "KFC Late Night Sets," with new themed stores opening in popular areas [2] Group 4: Awards and Recognition - At the 2025 China International Beer Challenge, Chongqing Brewery had 15 products awarded, making it the company with the most awards for five consecutive years, with "Lao Bao Pure Draft" winning the highest award [3] - The company received an "AA" rating in the 2025 MSCI ESG ratings, maintaining a leading position in the industry for sustainable development [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese beer market is experiencing a significant shift, with domestic giants gaining ground against foreign competitors, particularly in the context of the "takeout war" that has revitalized the industry [4][6][30]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape of the Chinese beer market is changing, with domestic brands outperforming foreign giants in the first half of 2025 [4][6]. - In the first half of 2025, China’s beer market saw a decline in overall production by 0.3%, continuing a trend of stagnation [18]. - Despite the overall market decline, domestic giants like China Resources Beer, Qingdao Beer, and Yanjing Beer achieved over 2% growth in sales [19][20]. Group 2: Performance of Major Players - China Resources Beer surpassed Budweiser APAC to become the market leader, with a revenue of approximately 239.42 billion RMB, a 0.8% increase year-on-year [10][11]. - Budweiser APAC reported a revenue of 31.36 billion USD (approximately 224.5 billion RMB), a 5.6% decline year-on-year, marking the worst performance among the top five [9]. - Yanjing Beer and Chongqing Beer are in a tight race for the fourth position, with Yanjing Beer achieving a net profit growth of 45.45%, surpassing Chongqing Beer [13][14]. Group 3: Impact of Instant Retail - The "takeout war" has provided a new growth driver for the beer industry, with instant retail becoming a significant channel for sales [17][21]. - Qingdao Beer reported a nearly 60% increase in sales through instant retail platforms, significantly outperforming the industry average [26]. - China Resources Beer noted a nearly 40% growth in its online business and a 50% increase in its instant retail business [27]. Group 4: Foreign Brands' Struggles - Foreign brands, particularly Budweiser APAC and Chongqing Beer, are facing challenges, with Budweiser's sales in China declining by 8.2% [10][30]. - The high-end beer market, once dominated by Budweiser, is seeing its advantages eroded by the growth of domestic brands [30][33]. - Both Budweiser APAC and Chongqing Beer are shifting focus to non-immediate channels in response to declining performance in traditional immediate consumption venues [36][37].

Core Insights - Chongqing Beer reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 865 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.03% [1] - In Q2 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 392 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 12.70% [1] Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the revenue from high-end products increased by 0.04% year-on-year, while mainstream products decreased by 0.92%, and economy products increased by 5.39% [1] - In Q2 2025, high-end product revenue decreased by 1.09% year-on-year, mainstream products decreased by 3.59%, and economy products increased by 4.79% [1] Market Trends - The proportion of canned products in non-immediate consumption channels continued to rise in H1 2025, with significant growth in sales of brands such as Wusu and 1664, and double-digit growth for brands like Carlsberg and Fenghua Xueyue [1] Earnings Forecast - The company has adjusted its profit forecast downward primarily due to the impact of weak dining consumption, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 22X, 21X, and 20X for the upcoming periods [1] - The firm maintains a "Buy" rating on the stock [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative return of over 20% within the next six months [5]. Core Views - The company's revenue for H1 2025 was 8.839 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.24% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 865 million yuan, down 4.03% year-on-year. In Q2 2025, revenue was 4.484 billion yuan, a decline of 1.84% year-on-year, and net profit was 392 million yuan, down 12.70% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company experienced a slight increase in sales volume in H1 2025, reaching 1.8008 million kiloliters, up 0.95% year-on-year, while the average price per ton decreased by 1.2% to 4,908 yuan per kiloliter. The cost per ton also saw a reduction of 2.4% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s profitability was impacted by an increase in the income tax rate, which rose by 7.41 percentage points to 27.26% year-on-year in H1 2025. The net profit margin for H1 2025 was 9.79%, down 0.39 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenue growth of 0.7%, 2.4%, and 2.7% for the years 2025 to 2027, reaching 14.7 billion, 15.1 billion, and 15.5 billion yuan respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow by 8.2%, 4.5%, and 5.0% during the same period, reaching 1.21 billion, 1.26 billion, and 1.32 billion yuan respectively [3]. - The report indicates a downward adjustment in profit forecasts primarily due to weak dining consumption [3]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is estimated at 14.814 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.53%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at 1.337 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 5.78% [4]. - The report provides various financial ratios, including a projected P/E ratio of 21.95 for 2025 and an EV/EBITDA ratio of 6.30 for the same year [4].

Core Viewpoint - Chongqing Beer maintains its market share growth in H1 2025, actively promoting the high-endization of non-on-trade channels, although increased investment impacts the ton price [1] Company Summary - Carlsberg and Fenghua Xueyue brands are expected to continue strong growth, while 1664 and Wusu canned products also contribute to incremental growth [1] - Increased investment in non-on-trade channels affects the ton price of high-end and mainstream products, despite good growth in economic products mainly due to internal structural upgrades [1] - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio of 104% for 2024, with current market valuations corresponding to PE ratios of 22/21/20X [1] Industry Summary - Continued stimulus from consumption policies is expected to stabilize and restore downstream demand, driving volume and price expansion in the industry [1] - There remains significant upgrade potential in the beer industry in the medium to long term, supported by a complete product matrix and a focus on enhancing organizational capabilities and channel cultivation [1] - A recovery in on-trade demand could accelerate the industry's upgrade rate, with the company's high-end flagship products likely to regain momentum [1]