| [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 74,957 | 77,272 | 81,782 | 86,582 | 97,201 | | 同比（%） | 5.15 | 3.09 | 5.84 | 5.87 | 12.26 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 10,624 | 8,777 | 10,044 | 10,398 | 11,591 | | 同比（%） | 17.91 | (17.38) | 14.43 | 3.52 | 11.48 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.52 | 0.43 | 0.49 | 0.51 | 0.56 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 17.87 | 21.63 | 18.90 | 18.26 | 16.38 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券研究报告·公司点评报告·电力 中国核电（601985） 2024 年报&2025 一季报点评：所得 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 04 月 29 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 震荡运行 | | ◆国债： | 震荡上行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 看涨期权空头持有。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆塑料： | 震荡运行 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 剧烈震荡 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡走强 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 区间波动 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 走势偏弱 | | ◆玉米： | 逢低做多 | | ◆豆粕： ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and electricity generation in Q1 2025, but managed to achieve a slight increase in net profit due to cost control and non-operating income [1][3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 39.813 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.61% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.811 billion yuan, an increase of 1.45% year-on-year [1]. - The non-deductible net profit was 1.608 billion yuan, down 7.42% year-on-year [1]. Electricity Generation - The company completed a total electricity generation of 100.217 billion kWh in Q1 2025, a decrease of 5.67% year-on-year [2]. - The on-grid electricity volume was 94.935 billion kWh, down 5.72% year-on-year [2]. - Excluding the impact of transferring Guodian Construction Investment, the generation and on-grid electricity volumes decreased by 4.36% and 4.42% respectively [2]. - The on-grid electricity volumes for thermal, hydro, wind, and solar power changed by -9.34%, -6.95%, +11.23%, and +123.78% year-on-year respectively [2]. Cost and Profitability - The decline in coal prices partially offset the drop in sales volume and price, leading to an operating profit of 3.966 billion yuan, down 8.03% year-on-year [3]. - The company effectively controlled costs, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expenses decreasing by 63.88%, 16.86%, 18.08%, and 13.46% respectively [3]. - Non-operating income from the disposal of Guoneng Electric Power Engineering Management Co., Ltd. and the bankruptcy of Guodian Shouxian Wind Power Co., Ltd. contributed to the net profit increase [3]. Project Development - As of the end of 2024, the company has 8.35 million kW of thermal power projects and 4.9235 million kW of hydroelectric projects under construction [4]. - The Dadu River Basin hydropower station is expected to contribute 1.365 million kW in 2025, enhancing the company's capacity [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 6.5 billion yuan, 7.7 billion yuan, and 8.0 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year changes of -34.36%, +19.41%, and +3.97% respectively [4]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios for April 25, 2025, are estimated to be 12.66, 10.60, and 10.20 times [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a target price based on a PE ratio of 9/8/7 for the years 2025/2026/2027 respectively [6][12]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 met expectations, with revenue of 14.563 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.90% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 6.47% to 2.793 billion yuan [1]. - The company benefited from improved wind conditions in Fujian province, leading to a 42.83% increase in net profit in Q1 2025 compared to the previous year [1][2]. - The company is expected to see stable growth driven by high-quality assets in offshore wind and cogeneration projects, with projected net profits of 2.916 billion yuan, 3.372 billion yuan, and 3.725 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][5]. Revenue and Profitability - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 4.08 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.0% year-on-year, while net profit was 1.02 billion yuan, an increase of 3.3% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company generated a revenue of 3.097 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.31% year-on-year, with net profit reaching 752 million yuan, up 42.83% [1][2]. - The average utilization hours for the company's wind power projects reached 3,323.98 hours in 2024, significantly higher than the national average [4]. Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts revenues of 14.853 billion yuan in 2025, 15.565 billion yuan in 2026, and 16.420 billion yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of 2.0%, 4.8%, and 5.5% [5][10]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 2.916 billion yuan, with an EPS of 1.05 yuan, and a PE ratio of 9 [5][10]. - The report indicates a stable gross margin improvement, with expected gross margins of 27.60% in 2025 and 30.98% in 2026 [9][10]. Operational Highlights - The company’s cogeneration project in Jinjiang achieved a net profit of 109 million yuan in 2024, despite a year-on-year decrease of 27.25% [3]. - The company has a robust project pipeline, with ongoing investments in offshore wind projects and cogeneration, which are expected to contribute positively to future earnings [4][5]. Market Conditions - The report notes that coal power prices are under pressure, while wind power prices remain relatively stable, with a slight increase in offshore wind pricing [2][4]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the competitive allocation of offshore wind resources in Fujian province, enhancing its growth prospects [4].

3家调研机构人士均为轻工行业研究员，分别来自德邦基金、农银基金和东北证券，民丰特纸财务总监 和董事会秘书、证券事务代表参与接待。公司介绍，公司2024年度产销量同比均有所减少，归母净利润 7200万元、同比增长54.09%。 民丰特纸表示，2024年主要受益于原辅材料木浆以及煤炭领用成本同比均有所下降，以及先进制造业企 业加计抵减计入本期其他收益。对于浆价历史波动，民丰特纸介绍在2025年初，外盘报价启动新一轮涨 势，到2月初触及阶段性高点，随后呈现震荡下行态势，预测今年商品浆价格再现大幅上涨行情的可能 性较低。 4月17日，民丰特纸(600235)召开2024年年度股东大会，公司2024年净利润同比大幅增加。此前一天4月 16日，3家机构调研公司，了解公司的项目投产、产品创新以及产品矩阵、产能规划等事宜。 民丰特纸介绍，目前主要围绕具备自身技术和市场等优势的产品开展业务，主营产品包括烟草行业用纸 系列、（半）透明纸系列和涂布纸系列。在产品出海方面，公司将继续通过"走出去、请进来"的方式， 加大对国际市场的拓展开发力度，努力提升市场竞争力和品牌影响力，尽一切可能，努力实现公司整体 满产满销。 机构投资者也关注 ...