Core Insights - The current egg prices are experiencing slight fluctuations, with prices in major production areas remaining stable or showing minor declines [1][2] - The average daily inventory levels for eggs in production and circulation are stable, indicating a balanced supply-demand situation [3] Price Overview - Shandong egg price is 6.35 CNY/kg, Hebei is 6.24 CNY/kg (down 0.08 CNY), Guangdong is 6.40 CNY/kg, and Beijing is 7.00 CNY/kg (down 0.10 CNY) [1] - The futures market shows the main contract for eggs closing at 2930.00 CNY/500kg, with a decline of 2.24% [2] Supply and Inventory - The number of eliminated chickens has increased in recent weeks, with figures of 16.76 million, 14.42 million, and 13.71 million respectively [3] - Average inventory levels are 1.06 days in production and 1.10 days in circulation, indicating a slight decrease in circulation inventory [3] Market Analysis - The upcoming school season and Mid-Autumn Festival are expected to boost demand, leading to a slight improvement in egg sales [4] - Despite a potential short-term price rebound due to reduced inventory, the overall supply remains high, limiting significant price increases [4]

Core Viewpoint - The chicken egg supply is on the rise, leading to a decrease in egg prices, with expectations that the supply pressure may ease in the future, but prices are still projected to be lower than in previous years due to a high supply base [1][3][4]. Group 1: Supply and Price Dynamics - The average monthly price of eggs has a moderate negative correlation with the number of laying hens, indicating that as the supply increases, prices tend to decrease [1]. - As of August 22, the average monthly prices for July and August were 2.89 yuan per jin and 3.04 yuan per jin, reflecting year-on-year declines of 33.41% and 36% respectively [1]. - The supply of eggs is expected to decrease after August, as the number of older hens suitable for culling is projected to decline, which may reduce the pressure on egg prices [4]. Group 2: Profitability and Cost Trends - The prolonged period of losses in egg production is expected to lead to a turning point in capacity, with slight alleviation of supply pressure anticipated [3]. - The average feed cost per jin of eggs as of August 22 was 3.04 yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 0.33% and a year-on-year increase of 1.33%, while the profit per jin of eggs was -0.20 yuan, indicating a worsening profitability situation [3]. - Despite the seasonal demand increase in the third quarter, the losses in egg production are expected to continue, leading to a cautious approach in expanding production capacity [3]. Group 3: Market Adjustments and Future Outlook - The industry is experiencing a gradual increase in the number of laying hens, but the pace of capacity reduction is expected to be slow due to the growth of large-scale enterprises [4]. - The price gap between small and large eggs may begin to correct positively starting in October, potentially supporting the prices of large eggs [4]. - Overall, even with a projected decline in the number of laying hens, the total supply remains high, making it difficult for egg prices to receive substantial support in the latter half of the third quarter [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the egg market is experiencing a "旺季不旺" (weak peak season) with continuously declining egg prices [1] - The egg-laying industry is currently facing a situation of abundant supply, weak demand, and intensified cost competition, necessitating close attention to the transmission of profits to production capacity [1] - It is anticipated that egg prices will not see significant improvement in the fourth quarter, and the ongoing low spot prices may lead to a lack of enthusiasm for restocking, which could benefit the recovery of egg prices in the first half of next year [1]

Industry Overview - The domestic futures market for eggs has seen a continuous decline, with the main contract price dropping to 3070 yuan per 500 kg, marking the lowest point since October 2016 [1] - Since 2025, egg prices have shown a downward trend, decreasing by 30% compared to the peak price in October 2024 [2] - As of August 18, 2025, the average egg price in major production areas was 3.26 yuan per jin, while in major sales areas it was 3.13 yuan per jin, both reaching new lows not seen in the past decade [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of laying hens is significantly exceeding demand, with the number of laying hens at approximately 1.3 billion, remaining at a high level compared to the past five years [2] - Despite being the traditional peak season for eggs, prices have fallen to near historical lows, with the average market price dropping to 2.98 yuan per jin [3] - The current market conditions have led to cautious purchasing behavior among slaughterhouses, with small producers halting purchases at 5 yuan per jin, resulting in a reduced operating rate [2][3] Company Performance - Despite the overall weak performance of egg prices, Xiaoming Co., which specializes in egg production and hatching, reported a strong performance in the first half of 2025, achieving a revenue of 751 million yuan, a 93.65% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 185 million yuan, up 733.34% [3] - The average selling price of Xiaoming's chicken products increased by approximately 1.23 yuan per bird, representing a 40.33% rise compared to the previous year, contributing to a significant increase in gross profit margin [3] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a slowdown in the growth of laying hen stocks in the second half of 2025, but supply will remain ample [4] - There is an expectation for egg prices to rise before the Mid-Autumn Festival, although the potential for significant price increases is limited due to ongoing supply dominance [4] - The market is also influenced by the prices of alternative products, such as vegetables and pork, which are currently at relatively low levels, further constraining the potential for unexpected price increases in eggs [4]

Group 1 - The main contract for egg futures experienced a sharp decline, reaching a low of 3070.00 yuan, with a current price of 3075.00 yuan, reflecting a drop of 1.88% [1] - Institutions have differing views on the future of egg prices, with Guotai Junan maintaining a bearish outlook and Zhongyuan Futures suggesting a strategy of shorting during market rebounds [1][2] - Guotai Junan indicates that the short-term supply pressure remains, with current spot prices in a low-level consolidation, while the mid-term may see a rebound due to seasonal demand around the Mid-Autumn Festival [1] Group 2 - Zhongyuan Futures notes that the current spot market is stable to slightly strong, with a benchmark price of 2.6 yuan per pound in Hebei, and anticipates a short-term low-level fluctuation in egg prices [2] - The market is experiencing a divergence between spot and futures prices, with the spot market showing potential for a rebound due to downstream stocking demand, while futures may continue to decline to correct the basis [2] - The only bearish factor currently is the futures market being in a contango structure, which may limit the upward movement of futures prices despite potential increases in spot prices [2]

短期内预计，受市场产能充足，需求支撑不佳等因素影响，鸡蛋价格仍将维持震荡偏弱走势。（淄博市 能源事业发展中心） 中国发展网讯 自2025年年初至今，受蛋鸡市场存栏量充足，消费需求跟进不畅等因素影响，山东省淄 博市鸡蛋价格一路下滑。进入8月份以来，鸡蛋价格继续维持低位运行态势。 通过调查了解，造成鸡蛋价格持续低迷的原因：一是当前蛋鸡存栏量处于高位水平，鸡蛋市场供应充 足；二是终端需求持续疲软，叠加供给端过剩，蛋价维持阶段性低位。尽管当前下游需求有所回暖，但 今年中秋时间较晚，当前距中秋尚有2个多月时间，备货时点较往年明显后延，贸易商多采取低库存策 略。目前食品厂备货仍处于观望阶段，需求端恢复滞后，短期需求支撑力度有限，进一步助推蛋价走 弱。 8月12日价格监测数据显示，鸡蛋集贸全市平均价格3.51元/500克，环比上周同期下降3.31%，环比上月 同期上涨10.03%，环比去年同期下降33.14%；超市平均价格3.60元/500克，环比上周同期下降3.60%， 环比上月同期上涨9.76% ，环比去年同期下降33.21%。 ...

Report Title - Egg Weekly Report: General Demand Performance, Weak Egg Price Trend [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Supply-side pressure is significant, and demand is general, leading to a decline in egg prices. The rebound of egg prices earlier led to the release of cold-storage eggs, which impacted prices. Although the September contract is a peak-season contract, the current spot price is falling, suggesting potential further decline in futures prices. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [18]. Summary by Directory Part One: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies 1. Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.86 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.33 yuan per catty from last Friday, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.09 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.31 yuan per catty from last Friday. The terminal demand at the beginning of the week did not improve significantly, the number of newly opened production continued to increase, and the continuous high-temperature weather in the northern region put pressure on egg prices. After the egg price fell, market confidence was frustrated, and the inventory in the producing areas increased. The price of old hens fell this week as the breeding side's confidence in the future was frustrated, and the terminal demand was weak [5]. 2. Supply Analysis - The shipment volume in the producing areas decreased this week. According to Zhuochuang data, the number of egg-laying hens slaughtered in the main producing areas nationwide in the week of July 25 was 13.38 million, a decrease of 11% from the previous week, and the average slaughter age of laying hens in the week of July 24 was 506 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week. In July, the inventory of laying hens in production nationwide was 1.356 billion, an increase of 16 million from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 6.1%. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in July was 39.98 million, a month-on-month decrease of 2% and a year-on-year decrease of 4%. Without considering delayed slaughter and concentrated slaughter, the approximate inventory of laying hens in production from August to November 2025 is estimated to be 1.356 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.358 billion, and 1.351 billion respectively [10]. 3. Cost Analysis - The feed cost changed little this week. As of August 7, the corn price was around 2,395 yuan per ton, and the soybean meal price fell to 3,008 yuan per ton. The comprehensive feed cost was about 2,579 yuan per ton, and the feed cost per catty of eggs was about 2.83 yuan per catty. The egg price fluctuated weakly this week, and the breeding profit decreased. As of August 7, the weekly average profit per catty of eggs was -0.26 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.23 yuan per catty from the previous week, and the expected profit of laying hen breeding on August 1 was 13.94 yuan per bird, a decrease of 0.03 yuan per catty from the previous week [13]. 4. Demand Analysis - The egg price was weak this week. The terminal demand was weak in the first half of the week, and the market mainly cleared inventory. As the egg price hit a new low, there was a sentiment of bottom-fishing and stockpiling in the downstream market, slightly driving the market volume. The sales volume in the selling areas decreased month-on-month. As of August 7, the sales volume of eggs in the national representative selling areas was 7,529 tons, a decrease of 4.6% from last week. The inventory in the national egg market increased month-on-month. The number of newly opened laying hens increased significantly this week, and the supply of small-sized eggs increased, leading to a price decline. The demand decreased under the high-temperature and humid weather, and the inventory levels of all links increased. It is expected that the inventory in the breeding and circulation links will decrease next month. As of August 7, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.09 days, an increase of 0.08 days from last week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.23 days, an increase of 12 days from the previous week. The vegetable price index rebounded slightly this week, and the pork price index changed little [16]. 5. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [18]. - **Arbitrage**: Stay on the sidelines [18]. - **Options**: Sell put options [17]. Part Two: Weekly Data Tracking - The report provides data tracking charts on inventory, chicken culling, cold-storage eggs, egg-laying hen breeding, price spreads, and basis, including historical data on the inventory of laying hens in production, the number of chicken culling, the price of laying hen chicks, and various price spreads and basis [22][23][30].

因供应相对充裕，且7月蛋价上涨阶段下游库存主动累积，8月初云南鸡蛋价格超预期下滑。但考虑到8 月仍是鸡蛋需求旺季，叠加养殖端看涨心态增强，预计8月中下旬云南鸡蛋价格或再次上涨。 7月下旬云南蛋价出现第一波峰值 自7月下旬起，云南梅雨季慢慢结束，由天气情况引发的鸡蛋质量问题逐步减少，加之6-7月云南当地养 殖环节积极出栏大日龄老母鸡，短期内大码鸡蛋货源相对紧缺，各环节对7-8月的鸡蛋行情多持积极盼 涨的心态，市场交投活跃，贸易环节对高价货源的接受程度有所提升，支撑云南蛋价连续上涨并创近三 月新高，日均价突破3.50元／斤大关。截至7月23日，云南鸡蛋均价3.76元／斤，较月内低点累计涨幅接 近30%，为三季度第一波峰值。 但与此同时，超预期涨价期前移亦提振业者参市积极性，下游及终端大批量集中备货，云南市场主动库 存有所提升，被动库存及市场流通货源稍显紧张。 传统旺季不改，8月中下旬云南蛋价上涨可期 三季度为历年鸡蛋市场需求旺季，8月份云南市场中秋备货逐渐开启，且旅游旺季提振餐饮消费，此外 下旬云南地区学校开学集中补货进一步拉动需求，市场需求进入年内旺季，叠加长期亏损状态下养殖端 盼涨情绪愈演愈烈，贸易环节为维持 ...

Core Insights - The price of eggs has shown a strong upward trend, increasing from 2.89 yuan per jin to 3.31 yuan per jin, representing a cumulative increase of nearly 15% during the period from July 17 to July 24 [1] Price Overview - As of July 24, egg prices in various regions are as follows: - Yantai, Shandong: 6.90 yuan per jin - Yancheng, Jiangsu: 6.70 yuan per jin - Shanghai: 6.90 yuan per jin - Fuzhou, Fujian: 7.00 yuan per jin - The futures market shows the main contract for eggs closing at 3636.00 yuan per 500 kg, with a slight decrease of 0.27% [2] Market Conditions - As of July 17, the average age of broiler chickens is 505 days, which is one day later than the previous week and four days earlier than the previous month - The monthly inventory of laying hens as of the end of June was approximately 1.34 billion, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.4% and a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [3] Analysis Perspective - According to Hualian Futures research, high temperatures have led to a decline in egg production rates, with farmers showing strong price support sentiment - The market is experiencing smooth sales as southern regions enter the plum rain season, leading to tighter supply in some areas and a noticeable increase in market prices - However, there are no favorable demand signals, and in the medium term, the high inventory of laying hens suggests ample supply, with short-term pressure levels around 3713 yuan [4]

Group 1 - The National Disaster Reduction and Relief Committee, along with other departments, has indicated that July will see the full onset of the flood season in China, leading to a more complex and severe natural disaster risk situation [1] - The Ministry of Commerce is closely monitoring the rain and flood conditions in southern China and has increased the organization of supplies to ensure emergency preparedness, reporting that the market for essential goods remains stable and well-supplied [1] - As of July 4, the wholesale prices of essential food items such as grain, edible oil, pork, eggs, vegetables, and fruits have remained stable compared to the previous week, with egg prices dropping over 40% since the beginning of the year [1] Group 2 - During the plum rain season, egg prices are expected to remain weak due to high temperatures and humidity, which complicate storage; producers are likely to sell quickly, putting further pressure on prices [2] - The national layer hen stock reached a historical high, with 98 new projects planned for 2024, including 43 projects with over one million hens, indicating ongoing expansion in the egg production industry [2] - In May, the national layer hen stock was approximately 1.334 billion, with a projected increase to 1.34 billion in June, which historically leads to significant losses in the industry when stocks exceed 1.35 billion [3] Group 3 - The egg price outlook for the second half of the year suggests continued supply pressure due to increasing layer hen stocks and seasonal price declines during the plum rain season, with potential for a rebound in August-September if significant culling occurs [3] - The traditional peak consumption season may be affected if the expected culling does not materialize, leading to a situation where the peak season does not see the usual demand [3]