Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in egg futures have shown signs of a rebound after significant declines, with trading volumes reaching historical highs and a notable increase in short-covering activity [3][4][10]. Group 1: Market Trends - On September 2, egg futures hit a low of 2907 yuan per 500 kg before closing at 2959 yuan, followed by a rise to 3011 yuan on September 3, marking a 2.62% increase [3]. - The egg futures index has surpassed 1 million contracts, indicating a historical peak in open interest, with significant divergence between bulls and bears [3][10]. - The 2510 contract's open interest has decreased for three consecutive days, while the 2511 contract has seen an increase in long positions [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Seasonal demand has slightly increased due to school openings and the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival, but supply pressures remain high, limiting the potential for significant price increases [4][5]. - The circulation speed of eggs has improved, with inventory days decreasing from 0.89 days in August to 0.73 days in early September [5]. - Despite the seasonal uptick in demand, the overall supply remains robust, with a high production rate expected as the heat stress on laying hens subsides [5][11]. Group 3: Producer Sentiment - Producers are showing decreased enthusiasm for restocking due to prolonged losses, with a notable decline in the number of hens being replaced [6][8]. - The age of culled hens has decreased from approximately 540 days to 500 days, indicating a shift in producer behavior in response to market conditions [8]. - The current cash breeding cost is around 2.8 to 2.9 yuan per jin, while egg prices are fluctuating around 3.0 yuan per jin, leading to financial strain on producers [9]. Group 4: Price Outlook - The egg market is expected to experience wide fluctuations at the bottom, with current prices being relatively undervalued, but no significant improvement in fundamentals is anticipated [10]. - The potential for a rebound in prices exists, but it is likely to be limited due to the high production capacity and the anticipated increase in supply from newly produced hens [11].

Core Viewpoint - The egg market is experiencing a "旺季不旺" (旺季不旺) phenomenon due to dual pressures from supply and demand, leading to a significant decline in egg prices despite the traditional peak season approaching [3][4]. Supply and Demand Analysis - As of August 29, the main contract for egg futures closed at 2939 yuan/ton, a nearly 11% drop from July 31, indicating a bearish outlook for egg prices driven by supply factors [2][3]. - The average egg price in major production areas was reported at 3.22 yuan/kg, while in major sales areas it was 3.15 yuan/kg, marking a six-year low [3]. - Increased production capacity due to a long-term profitable environment for egg-laying hens has led to a sustained growth in egg supply, with the number of laying hens exceeding 1.3 billion [4][5]. Market Sentiment and Price Trends - The current bearish sentiment in the market is exacerbated by a slow pace of downstream procurement, as consumer demand is affected by a late Mid-Autumn Festival and a decline in restaurant consumption [3][4]. - The egg futures market has seen a record high in positions held, indicating a significant concentration of capital that amplifies price declines [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that while there may be a temporary increase in demand due to school and festival preparations, it is unlikely to offset the high supply pressure [5][6]. Future Outlook - The egg market is expected to face continued pressure, with any potential rebound in prices being limited due to high inventory levels and the need for time to digest cold storage eggs [5][6]. - The reduction in the age of hens being culled is a positive sign, but historical data indicates that a significant improvement in supply-demand dynamics will take longer to materialize [6].

Core Insights - The current egg prices are experiencing slight fluctuations, with prices in major production areas remaining stable or showing minor declines [1][2] - The average daily inventory levels for eggs in production and circulation are stable, indicating a balanced supply-demand situation [3] Price Overview - Shandong egg price is 6.35 CNY/kg, Hebei is 6.24 CNY/kg (down 0.08 CNY), Guangdong is 6.40 CNY/kg, and Beijing is 7.00 CNY/kg (down 0.10 CNY) [1] - The futures market shows the main contract for eggs closing at 2930.00 CNY/500kg, with a decline of 2.24% [2] Supply and Inventory - The number of eliminated chickens has increased in recent weeks, with figures of 16.76 million, 14.42 million, and 13.71 million respectively [3] - Average inventory levels are 1.06 days in production and 1.10 days in circulation, indicating a slight decrease in circulation inventory [3] Market Analysis - The upcoming school season and Mid-Autumn Festival are expected to boost demand, leading to a slight improvement in egg sales [4] - Despite a potential short-term price rebound due to reduced inventory, the overall supply remains high, limiting significant price increases [4]

Core Viewpoint - The chicken egg supply is on the rise, leading to a decrease in egg prices, with expectations that the supply pressure may ease in the future, but prices are still projected to be lower than in previous years due to a high supply base [1][3][4]. Group 1: Supply and Price Dynamics - The average monthly price of eggs has a moderate negative correlation with the number of laying hens, indicating that as the supply increases, prices tend to decrease [1]. - As of August 22, the average monthly prices for July and August were 2.89 yuan per jin and 3.04 yuan per jin, reflecting year-on-year declines of 33.41% and 36% respectively [1]. - The supply of eggs is expected to decrease after August, as the number of older hens suitable for culling is projected to decline, which may reduce the pressure on egg prices [4]. Group 2: Profitability and Cost Trends - The prolonged period of losses in egg production is expected to lead to a turning point in capacity, with slight alleviation of supply pressure anticipated [3]. - The average feed cost per jin of eggs as of August 22 was 3.04 yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 0.33% and a year-on-year increase of 1.33%, while the profit per jin of eggs was -0.20 yuan, indicating a worsening profitability situation [3]. - Despite the seasonal demand increase in the third quarter, the losses in egg production are expected to continue, leading to a cautious approach in expanding production capacity [3]. Group 3: Market Adjustments and Future Outlook - The industry is experiencing a gradual increase in the number of laying hens, but the pace of capacity reduction is expected to be slow due to the growth of large-scale enterprises [4]. - The price gap between small and large eggs may begin to correct positively starting in October, potentially supporting the prices of large eggs [4]. - Overall, even with a projected decline in the number of laying hens, the total supply remains high, making it difficult for egg prices to receive substantial support in the latter half of the third quarter [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the egg market is experiencing a "旺季不旺" (weak peak season) with continuously declining egg prices [1] - The egg-laying industry is currently facing a situation of abundant supply, weak demand, and intensified cost competition, necessitating close attention to the transmission of profits to production capacity [1] - It is anticipated that egg prices will not see significant improvement in the fourth quarter, and the ongoing low spot prices may lead to a lack of enthusiasm for restocking, which could benefit the recovery of egg prices in the first half of next year [1]

Industry Overview - The domestic futures market for eggs has seen a continuous decline, with the main contract price dropping to 3070 yuan per 500 kg, marking the lowest point since October 2016 [1] - Since 2025, egg prices have shown a downward trend, decreasing by 30% compared to the peak price in October 2024 [2] - As of August 18, 2025, the average egg price in major production areas was 3.26 yuan per jin, while in major sales areas it was 3.13 yuan per jin, both reaching new lows not seen in the past decade [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of laying hens is significantly exceeding demand, with the number of laying hens at approximately 1.3 billion, remaining at a high level compared to the past five years [2] - Despite being the traditional peak season for eggs, prices have fallen to near historical lows, with the average market price dropping to 2.98 yuan per jin [3] - The current market conditions have led to cautious purchasing behavior among slaughterhouses, with small producers halting purchases at 5 yuan per jin, resulting in a reduced operating rate [2][3] Company Performance - Despite the overall weak performance of egg prices, Xiaoming Co., which specializes in egg production and hatching, reported a strong performance in the first half of 2025, achieving a revenue of 751 million yuan, a 93.65% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 185 million yuan, up 733.34% [3] - The average selling price of Xiaoming's chicken products increased by approximately 1.23 yuan per bird, representing a 40.33% rise compared to the previous year, contributing to a significant increase in gross profit margin [3] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a slowdown in the growth of laying hen stocks in the second half of 2025, but supply will remain ample [4] - There is an expectation for egg prices to rise before the Mid-Autumn Festival, although the potential for significant price increases is limited due to ongoing supply dominance [4] - The market is also influenced by the prices of alternative products, such as vegetables and pork, which are currently at relatively low levels, further constraining the potential for unexpected price increases in eggs [4]

Group 1 - The main contract for egg futures experienced a sharp decline, reaching a low of 3070.00 yuan, with a current price of 3075.00 yuan, reflecting a drop of 1.88% [1] - Institutions have differing views on the future of egg prices, with Guotai Junan maintaining a bearish outlook and Zhongyuan Futures suggesting a strategy of shorting during market rebounds [1][2] - Guotai Junan indicates that the short-term supply pressure remains, with current spot prices in a low-level consolidation, while the mid-term may see a rebound due to seasonal demand around the Mid-Autumn Festival [1] Group 2 - Zhongyuan Futures notes that the current spot market is stable to slightly strong, with a benchmark price of 2.6 yuan per pound in Hebei, and anticipates a short-term low-level fluctuation in egg prices [2] - The market is experiencing a divergence between spot and futures prices, with the spot market showing potential for a rebound due to downstream stocking demand, while futures may continue to decline to correct the basis [2] - The only bearish factor currently is the futures market being in a contango structure, which may limit the upward movement of futures prices despite potential increases in spot prices [2]

Core Viewpoint - The egg prices in Zibo City, Shandong Province, have been declining due to high inventory levels of laying hens and weak consumer demand, with prices remaining low since early 2025 [1] Price Trends - As of August 12, the average price of eggs in the market was 3.51 yuan per 500 grams, a decrease of 3.31% compared to the previous week, but an increase of 10.03% compared to the previous month, and a decline of 33.14% compared to the same period last year [1] - The average price in supermarkets was 3.60 yuan per 500 grams, reflecting a decrease of 3.60% from the previous week, an increase of 9.76% from the previous month, and a decline of 33.21% from the same period last year [1] Supply and Demand Factors - The persistent low prices are attributed to high levels of laying hen inventory leading to sufficient supply in the egg market [1] - Weak terminal demand, combined with excess supply, has kept egg prices at a low level [1] - Although there has been some recovery in downstream demand, the timing for stockpiling ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival is notably delayed this year, impacting demand [1] Market Outlook - In the short term, egg prices are expected to remain weak due to ample market capacity and insufficient demand support [1]

Report Title - Egg Weekly Report: General Demand Performance, Weak Egg Price Trend [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Supply-side pressure is significant, and demand is general, leading to a decline in egg prices. The rebound of egg prices earlier led to the release of cold-storage eggs, which impacted prices. Although the September contract is a peak-season contract, the current spot price is falling, suggesting potential further decline in futures prices. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [18]. Summary by Directory Part One: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies 1. Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.86 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.33 yuan per catty from last Friday, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.09 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.31 yuan per catty from last Friday. The terminal demand at the beginning of the week did not improve significantly, the number of newly opened production continued to increase, and the continuous high-temperature weather in the northern region put pressure on egg prices. After the egg price fell, market confidence was frustrated, and the inventory in the producing areas increased. The price of old hens fell this week as the breeding side's confidence in the future was frustrated, and the terminal demand was weak [5]. 2. Supply Analysis - The shipment volume in the producing areas decreased this week. According to Zhuochuang data, the number of egg-laying hens slaughtered in the main producing areas nationwide in the week of July 25 was 13.38 million, a decrease of 11% from the previous week, and the average slaughter age of laying hens in the week of July 24 was 506 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week. In July, the inventory of laying hens in production nationwide was 1.356 billion, an increase of 16 million from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 6.1%. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in July was 39.98 million, a month-on-month decrease of 2% and a year-on-year decrease of 4%. Without considering delayed slaughter and concentrated slaughter, the approximate inventory of laying hens in production from August to November 2025 is estimated to be 1.356 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.358 billion, and 1.351 billion respectively [10]. 3. Cost Analysis - The feed cost changed little this week. As of August 7, the corn price was around 2,395 yuan per ton, and the soybean meal price fell to 3,008 yuan per ton. The comprehensive feed cost was about 2,579 yuan per ton, and the feed cost per catty of eggs was about 2.83 yuan per catty. The egg price fluctuated weakly this week, and the breeding profit decreased. As of August 7, the weekly average profit per catty of eggs was -0.26 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.23 yuan per catty from the previous week, and the expected profit of laying hen breeding on August 1 was 13.94 yuan per bird, a decrease of 0.03 yuan per catty from the previous week [13]. 4. Demand Analysis - The egg price was weak this week. The terminal demand was weak in the first half of the week, and the market mainly cleared inventory. As the egg price hit a new low, there was a sentiment of bottom-fishing and stockpiling in the downstream market, slightly driving the market volume. The sales volume in the selling areas decreased month-on-month. As of August 7, the sales volume of eggs in the national representative selling areas was 7,529 tons, a decrease of 4.6% from last week. The inventory in the national egg market increased month-on-month. The number of newly opened laying hens increased significantly this week, and the supply of small-sized eggs increased, leading to a price decline. The demand decreased under the high-temperature and humid weather, and the inventory levels of all links increased. It is expected that the inventory in the breeding and circulation links will decrease next month. As of August 7, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.09 days, an increase of 0.08 days from last week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.23 days, an increase of 12 days from the previous week. The vegetable price index rebounded slightly this week, and the pork price index changed little [16]. 5. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [18]. - **Arbitrage**: Stay on the sidelines [18]. - **Options**: Sell put options [17]. Part Two: Weekly Data Tracking - The report provides data tracking charts on inventory, chicken culling, cold-storage eggs, egg-laying hen breeding, price spreads, and basis, including historical data on the inventory of laying hens in production, the number of chicken culling, the price of laying hen chicks, and various price spreads and basis [22][23][30].

Core Viewpoint - The chicken egg prices in Yunnan are expected to experience fluctuations in August due to supply and demand dynamics, with a potential rebound in prices anticipated in the latter half of the month despite an initial decline in early August [1][4][6]. Group 1: Price Trends - In late July, Yunnan egg prices peaked, with an average price of 3.76 yuan per jin, marking a nearly 30% increase from the monthly low [2]. - By early August, the average price dropped to 3.19 yuan per jin, reflecting a decline of over 10% from the beginning of the month due to excess supply and increased inventory levels [4][6]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The supply of eggs in August is expected to remain ample, driven by a high number of newly producing hens and a potential increase in the number of hens being culled [4]. - Despite the high supply, the demand is projected to rise in late August due to seasonal factors such as the Mid-Autumn Festival and the start of the school year, which typically boosts consumption [6]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - The market sentiment among producers has shifted from cautiousness to a more optimistic outlook, with expectations of price increases leading to increased purchasing activity [6]. - However, the high inventory levels and competition from northern regions may temper the rate of price increases, with the absolute price levels likely remaining below those of the previous year [6].