Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in egg futures prices is attributed to rising feed costs driven by trade issues and a subsequent increase in spot egg prices, which has provided support for futures contracts [2][3][4]. Group 1: Price Movements - From April 1 to April 16, egg futures prices increased by 7.4%, with the main contract reaching 3078 yuan per 500 kg, up 2.87% on April 16 [2][3]. - The average price of eggs in major production areas rose from 3.06 yuan per jin to approximately 3.4 yuan per jin since early April [3][4]. - The main contract's open interest reached 173,000 lots, the highest in three years, indicating intense market speculation [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Egg consumption demand has been consistently increasing, supported by a 4.6% year-on-year growth in retail sales, with restaurant income rising by 4.7% in the first quarter [5]. - Despite a 5.21% year-on-year decline in egg sales volume to 68,210 tons, significant increases were noted in major markets like Beijing and Guangdong, with Beijing's supply up 19.1% [5]. - The inventory levels of laying hens remain high, with 1.318 billion hens recorded in March, a 6.8% year-on-year increase, indicating a stable supply [6]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts express caution regarding future price trends, emphasizing the need to monitor feed costs and the culling of laying hens, which could impact supply [7]. - Current egg prices are near the breakeven point for poultry farming businesses, suggesting that producers may not actively cull hens despite rising prices [7][9]. - The outlook for egg prices post-September appears weaker, with concerns about potential losses in the poultry industry by 2026, although optimism remains for 2025 [9].

综上，从供应情况来看，预计4月份在产蛋鸡存栏量将持续增加，鸡蛋供应量进一步增加。加之需求方 面难有明显提振，供应压力下，蛋价重心或下移。 （作者：刘梅，卓创资讯分析师） 3月份虽老母鸡出栏量恢复性增加，但新增产能处于高位，导致在产蛋鸡存栏量继续提升。展望4月份， 新开产蛋鸡数量较多，存栏量或将继续增加，供应方面或压制蛋价重心下移。 据卓创资讯监测数据显示，3月全国在产蛋鸡存栏量约为13.18亿只，环比增幅0.92%，同比增幅6.89%， 在产蛋鸡存栏量增至近三年最高水平；主产区鸡蛋月均价3.26元／斤，环比涨幅1.24%，同比跌幅 5.23%。3月在产蛋鸡存栏量增至高位，鸡蛋供应充足，月内虽需求好转提振蛋价，但供应压力下，蛋 价涨幅有限，处于近三年同期低位。 3月份鸡蛋价格虽有所好转，但好转程度有限，尤其中下旬蛋价呈现缓慢下跌趋势，鸡蛋盈利由盈转 亏，刺激养殖单位出栏老母鸡积极性提升，加之清明利好未达业者预期，部分养殖单位顺势出栏老母 鸡。根据卓创资讯监测数据显示，3月全国老母鸡出栏量约为7393万只，环比增幅24.65%，老母鸡出栏 量恢复性提升。新增产能方面，3月新开产的蛋鸡主要是2024年11月前后补栏 ...