Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The rebound of the iron ore sector was driven by coking coal, but the rebound height is limited. The demand for iron ore has declined from its peak but is expected to remain at a relatively high level, which will support the price. It is predicted that the short - term price will remain range - bound, and chasing long positions is not recommended. Although the coking coal price has stabilized and rebounded and market sentiment has improved, the fundamental basis for the coking coal rebound is weak and the sustainability of the sector's strength is questionable [2][3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The current shipment of foreign mines has increased month - on - month, with significant increases in shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream regions, but the volume of Australian shipments to China has decreased month - on - month. In June, which is the peak season for foreign ore shipments, mainstream mines are expected to maintain a steady upward trend in shipments, and the support from the supply side will gradually weaken [3]. Demand - Domestic demand has declined from its peak but is still in a high - level area. The molten iron output has decreased for three consecutive weeks, with the current figure at 241.91 (a month - on - month decrease of 1.69). The short - term demand has peaked, but the current profitability rate of steel mills is relatively high. It is expected that the molten iron output will show an overall downward trend from a high level, but the downward slope will be gentle. High demand is the core factor supporting the price [4]. Inventory - The current domestic demand level is still relatively high. It is expected that the port inventory level will remain relatively stable or tend to decline in the first half of June. However, overall, the inventory is at a high level, and the phased destocking at a high inventory level is difficult to provide upward momentum [4].

Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing a decline in demand and prices, influenced by seasonal factors and supply increases, with expectations of price fluctuations within the range of 700-745 RMB per ton [6]. Supply - Global iron ore shipments have increased by 242.3 million tons to 34.31 million tons this week, with Australian and Brazilian shipments showing mixed trends [4]. - Australian shipments totaled 19.205 million tons, a decrease of 0.927 million tons, while shipments to China fell by 2.814 million tons to 14.998 million tons [4]. - Brazilian shipments rose by 1.715 million tons to 9.483 million tons, indicating a recovery in some ports [4]. Demand - Daily molten iron production averaged 2.4191 million tons, a decrease of 16,900 tons from the previous period [3]. - The blast furnace operating rate is at 83.87%, up by 0.18%, while the capacity utilization rate is at 90.69%, down by 0.64 percentage points [3]. - Steel mill profitability stands at 58.87%, a slight decrease of 0.87 percentage points [3]. Inventory - As of May 29, total inventory at 45 ports is 138.6658 million tons, down by 1.2125 million tons [5]. - Steel mills' imported ore inventory decreased by 1.7115 million tons to 87.5433 million tons, with a slight decline in daily consumption [5]. Market Outlook - The iron ore market is facing downward pressure due to high inventory levels and increased supply, while demand remains resilient despite seasonal weaknesses [6]. - The expectation is for limited declines in molten iron production, with a focus on changes in production levels [6]. - The upcoming peak in shipments from overseas mines may lead to increased supply pressure in the market [6].

Core Viewpoint - The coal and coke market is experiencing a slight downturn, with prices being adjusted downwards by steel mills after an initial price increase, indicating a cautious outlook for the industry [1][6]. Supply - As of May 15, the average daily production of coke from independent coking plants is 671,000 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.2%. The average daily production from 247 steel mills is 473,000 tons, remaining stable week-on-week, leading to a total production of 1,144,000 tons per day, also up by 0.2% week-on-week [3]. Demand - The average daily pig iron output from 247 steel mills is 2,447,700 tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 8,700 tons. This translates to a coke demand of 1,161,000 tons per day, with a daily supply-demand gap decreasing by 4,100 tons week-on-week. Overall, there is a slight decline in weekly coke demand, indicating a high-level retreat in market demand [4]. Inventory - As of May 15, the total coke inventory stands at 10,395,000 tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 97,000 tons. The inventory at independent coking enterprises is 943,000 tons, down by 1,000 tons week-on-week. The inventory at 247 steel mills is 6,638,000 tons, down by 72,000 tons, while port inventory is 2,814,000 tons, down by 23,000 tons week-on-week [5]. Profitability - As of May 15, the average profit per ton of coke nationwide is 7 yuan. The average profit for Shanxi's first-grade coke is 28 yuan, for Shandong's first-grade coke is 62 yuan, while Inner Mongolia's second-grade coke shows a loss of 46 yuan, and Hebei's first-grade coke has an average profit of 64 yuan [2]. Market Sentiment - Following the reduction of tariffs by China on the U.S. starting April 14, there has been a slight rebound in the black series commodities. However, after an initial price increase, major steel mills have reduced coke prices, with expectations for further adjustments. The market sentiment remains cautious, with limited expectations for significant increases in downstream replenishment demand [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [2] Core Viewpoint - The short - term domestic macro - policy is in a window period, the Sino - US tariff conflict has not improved significantly. Although the iron ore is strong in the real - time, the medium - and long - term pattern of supply is loose. It is recommended to take a short - side approach. The short - term supply - demand relationship improvement supports the price, which moves in a range. It is advisable to short at high prices and avoid chasing long positions [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The global shipment has rebounded overall this period, with a slight increase in shipments from Australia and non - mainstream regions. May is the peak season for foreign ore shipments, and it is expected that shipments will maintain a steady upward trend, with the marginal support from the supply side weakening [2] Demand - Domestic demand is at a high level in the same historical period. The molten iron output has reached around 244 + tons per day (according to the Steel Union), only lower than the same period in 2023 (245.88) and exceeding the highest level of last year (239.94). The high demand in the short - term supports the price, but the profit of blast furnace steel mills has declined due to the falling prices of finished products. The impact of tariffs on exports will gradually appear, and the increase and duration of molten iron output are expected to be limited [2] Inventory - The inventory of imported ore in steel mills has increased slightly, and pre - holiday restocking will drive up the inventory level. The port inventory has started to accumulate this period because of the significant increase in unloading and warehousing volume. Considering the high domestic demand, the port inventory will remain relatively stable or tend to decline. Later, attention should be paid to the increase in supply shipments [2] Strategy - It is recommended to conduct range trading. The price range of the 2509 contract this week is 690 - 720 yuan per ton [2]