Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core Viewpoints - The external macro - influence is more positive, and there are still incremental expectations for domestic monetary and fiscal policies in the later stage. The supply growth rate of iron ore exceeds expectations, while the demand side remains resilient. The overall supply - demand relationship has shifted from tight - balance to balance. In the short term, iron ore lacks an obvious upward driver, and its price is expected to follow the market trend [3] Summaries by Related Catalogs Market Logic - Yesterday, the black - series commodities traded under the weak reality. The reasons are the pressure of futures - spot convergence in the near - month delivery logic, the suppression of the main contract price rebound by the cost of warehouse receipts of iron ore and coking coal 09 contracts, and the decline in the sentiment of the equity market which also suppresses the black - series sentiment. The super - seasonal inventory accumulation of rebar at the finished - product end has depressed the valuation of the black - series, and the high - level decline of blast - furnace profits has limited the space for molten iron increase. The unexpected increase in supply has also suppressed the market [2] Supply - The overseas ore shipments have slightly declined but remain at a relatively high level. The shipments of Australian Rio Tinto and FMG mines have increased significantly, while the Brazilian shipments have declined significantly after reaching a historical high, and the non - mainstream shipments have also declined from a high level. The arrival volume is at a moderately high level, and the supply - side pressure has weakened [2] Demand - The domestic daily average molten iron output has increased slightly for two consecutive weeks, with the current daily average molten iron output of 240.75 (a month - on - month increase of 0.09). The profitability rate of steel mills has declined from a high level, and the blast - furnace profit has also continuously declined. The short - process steelmaking has fallen into an overall loss again, which protects the demand for iron ore to a certain extent. The support of domestic demand for prices has weakened marginally. Attention should be paid to whether the molten iron output can remain high and the military parade production - restriction in North China [2] Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ore at steel mills remains high, and the inventory at steel mills has declined month - on - month. The port inventory has continued to accumulate slightly. With the increase in shipments and the decline in molten iron output, the inventory is expected to remain stable or increase slightly in the short term [2] Price - This week, the price will fluctuate within a range. The main contract of Dalian iron ore futures (2601 contract) will be in the range of 775 - 810 yuan/ton, corresponding to the external market FE09 price of about 101 - 105.5 US dollars/ton [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term macro enters a window period, the black series maintains a high - level consolidation cycle. The support from overseas ore supply weakens marginally. In August, overseas ore shipments gradually recover. Considering the current high blast - furnace profits and the off - season but non - weak terminal demand, domestic demand is expected to remain at a relatively high level in the short term. The supply and demand of iron ore are in a stage of balance, and port inventories tend to be stable or rise slightly. It is expected that the short - term iron ore futures price will fluctuate at a high level [3]. - The price will fluctuate within a range. The price range of the i2601 contract is 745 yuan/ton - 780 yuan/ton, and the price range of the overseas FE09 contract is 98.5 - 103 US dollars/ton [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Logic - Yesterday, the prices of the black series continued to rise, with coking coal prices strengthening significantly again and iron ore prices remaining relatively stable. The finished product end faces the cost pressure of off - peak electricity for short - process production, and the market sentiment is cautious. The impact of finished product price fluctuations on iron ore needs to be monitored. The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore itself needs to accumulate, and it will mainly fluctuate at a high level in the short term [2]. Supply - The short - term support from the supply side is weakening. Overseas ore shipments will gradually enter a seasonal recovery cycle. After the maintenance periods of BHP and FMG mines in Australia end, their shipments recover, while Brazilian shipments decline this period. The short - term arrival volume has rebounded from a low level, increasing the immediate supply pressure [2]. Demand - The average daily hot metal production in China has declined for two consecutive weeks with an expanding decline. The average daily hot metal production this period is 240.71 (a week - on - week decrease of 1.52). However, the profitability rate of steel mills is continuously rising, and the blast - furnace profit level is relatively good. The short - term demand for iron ore remains resilient, and the high domestic demand strongly supports prices. Whether hot metal production can remain at a high level needs to be monitored later [2]. Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ore at steel mills remains high. Due to the continuous rise in iron ore prices, steel mills continue to replenish their stocks. As the arrival volume has dropped to a relatively low - to - medium level, the port inventory has decreased significantly this period. In the future, with the recovery of shipments and the marginal weakening of hot metal production, the inventory is expected to remain stable or rise slightly in the short term [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - The steel market is expected to remain strong. The recent positive arbitrage by spot - futures traders has helped digest inventory, and there was no inventory accumulation during the off - season despite high production. If northern steel mills cut production in August and demand recovers in the peak season, it can support high iron - water production in the third quarter and the valuation of the black series. Technically, steel prices have broken through previous highs, and long positions can be considered [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore 09 contract showed an oscillating upward trend. Global iron ore shipments increased last week, but those from Australia and Brazil decreased slightly. The arrival volume at 45 ports decreased last week, and the subsequent average arrival volume is expected to rise slightly. On the demand side, steel mill profit margins are at a relatively high level, the maintenance volume has decreased, and iron - water production has remained high. Steel exports are strong, and short - term iron - water production is resilient. Terminal demand has shown a strong performance during the off - season. In the inventory aspect, port inventory increased slightly last week, and the port clearance volume decreased. In the future, iron - water production in July will remain high, and steel mill profits will continue to improve, providing support for raw materials. However, there are new supply - side policy expectations, and iron ore prices are likely to follow the rise of steel prices due to production cuts [4]. Coke and Coking Coal - Both coke and coking coal futures showed a bottom - bouncing trend. For coke, the factory price has been raised, and the fourth - round price increase of mainstream coking enterprises has been implemented. Supply is still tight as coal mine复产 is slow, and demand has been supported by the recovery of blast furnaces after the end of environmental restrictions in Tangshan. For coking coal, the spot auction price is generally stable with a slight upward trend. The supply is tight, and demand has increased as steel mills have stepped up restocking. Although there was a limit - down in the futures market due to regulatory intervention, the spot market still has price - increase expectations. For both, speculative trading should be cautious, and arbitrage strategies can consider going long on coke/coking coal and short on iron ore [6]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - The prices of various steel products, including rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions, have increased. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China rose from 3390 yuan/ton to 3430 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price of rebar increased from 3311 yuan/ton to 3399 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The prices of steel billets and slab billets changed, with the steel billet price rising by 70 yuan/ton to 3150 yuan/ton. The costs of different types of rebar production decreased, and the profits of steel products in different regions and varieties also decreased. For example, the profit of East China hot - rolled coils decreased by 103 yuan/ton to 230 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average iron - water production increased by 2.6 to 242.6, a 1.1% increase. The production of five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.2 to 867.0, a 0.1% decrease. The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly, with the rebar inventory decreasing by 4.6 to 538.6, a 0.9% decrease, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increasing by 2.3 to 345.2, a 0.7% increase [1]. Transaction and Demand - The daily average building material trading volume increased by 2.1 to 12.2, a 20.4% increase. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 2.0 to 868.1, a 0.2% decrease. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 10.4 to 216.6, a 5.0% increase, and that for hot - rolled coils decreased by 8.6 to 315.2, a 2.6% decrease [1]. Iron Ore Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore types increased slightly, and the basis of the 09 contract for different iron ore types decreased. The 5 - 9 spread decreased, the 9 - 1 spread decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread increased [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of iron ore in Rizhao Port increased slightly, while the prices of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe decreased [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) decreased by 130.7 to 2240.5, a 5.5% decrease. The global shipment volume (weekly) increased by 91.8 to 3200.9, a 3.0% increase. The national monthly import volume increased by 782.0 to 10594.8, an 8.0% increase [4]. Demand - The daily average iron - water production of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased slightly by 0.2 to 242.2, a 0.1% decrease. The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume (weekly) decreased by 7.6 to 315.2, a 2.4% decrease. The national monthly pig iron and crude steel production decreased [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 104.2 to 13686.23, a 0.8% decrease. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) increased by 63.1 to 8885.2, a 0.7% increase. The inventory - available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) increased by 1.0 to 21.0, a 5.0% increase [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - For coke, the 09 and 01 contract prices increased, and the basis decreased. The profit of coking enterprises decreased. For coking coal, the 09 and 01 contract prices also increased, and the basis changed. The profit of sample coal mines increased [6]. Supply - The weekly coke production of the whole - sample coking plants increased slightly, and the weekly production of 247 steel mills also increased slightly. The weekly raw coal and clean coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased [6]. Demand - The weekly iron - water production of 247 steel mills decreased slightly, and the weekly coke production of the whole - sample coking plants increased slightly [6]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory decreased slightly, with the inventory of coking plants and ports decreasing and that of steel mills increasing slightly. The coking coal inventory of steel mills increased, and the port inventory decreased [6]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap increased slightly, indicating a slight improvement in the supply - demand relationship [6].

Report Information - Report Title: Black Series Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: July 25, 2025 [2] - Author: Shi Lei, Shi Zhuoran [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In the medium to long term, due to the continuous fermentation of anti - involution policies and the confirmation of coal mine production inspections, the black series futures showed an upward trend in the market, but the impact on iron ore was relatively small. Steel mills' profitability continued to increase, daily average pig iron production slightly declined, and foreign ore shipments rebounded. The black series is expected to operate in a volatile and upward - trending manner, and attention should be paid to relevant policy announcements and implementation [52]. - In the short term, the black series will continue its upward trend, and attention should be paid to policy implementation and macro - sentiment changes [53]. - For glass and soda ash, in the medium to long term, the float glass start - up rate has slightly declined, with potential future production cuts, continuous reduction of in - factory inventory, and cost - side support for prices, but limited improvement in demand. Soda ash production has decreased, but the oversupply situation persists, and the recent price increase is mainly due to macro - level disturbances [56]. - In the short term, the glass futures contract has risen significantly, and a bullish view is maintained in the short term. The soda ash 09 contract has also risen, but the oversupply situation remains unchanged, and excessive chasing of the rise is not recommended [57]. Summary by Directory Black Series Weekly Market Review | Variety | Contract | July 18, 2025 | July 25, 2025 | Change | Percentage Change (%) | Spot Price | Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | RB2510 | 3147 | 3356 | 209 | 6.64 | 3380 | 24 | | Hot - Rolled Coil | HC2510 | 3310 | 3507 | 197 | 5.95 | 3580 | 73 | | Iron Ore | I2509 | 785 | 803 | 17.5 | 2.23 | 806 | 3.5 | | Coke | J2509 | 1518 | 1763 | 245 | 16.14 | 1090 | - 673 | | Coking Coal | JM2509 | 926 | 1259 | 333 | 35.96 | 1280 | 21 | | Glass | FG509 | 1081 | 1362 | 281 | 25.99 | 1180 | - 182 | | Soda Ash | SA509 | 1216 | 1440 | 224 | 18.42 | 1250 | - 190 | [3] Rebar - **Profit**: On July 24, the blast - furnace profit of rebar was reported at 256 yuan/ton, a 93 - yuan increase compared to July 17 [7]. - **Supply**: As of July 25, the blast - furnace start - up rate was 83.46% (unchanged from the previous week), the electric - furnace start - up rate was 62.18% (an increase of 3.21 percentage points), the daily average pig iron production was 242.23 tons (a decrease of 0.21 tons), and the rebar production was 2.1196 million tons (an increase of 29,000 tons) [12]. - **Demand**: In the week of July 25, the apparent consumption of rebar was reported at 2.1658 million tons, a 104,100 - ton increase from the previous week. As of July 24, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was reported at 111,473 tons, a 16,597 - ton increase compared to July 17 [16]. - **Inventory**: In the week of July 25, the social inventory of rebar was reported at 3.7297 million tons, a 21,800 - ton increase from the previous week, and the in - factory inventory was reported at 1.6567 million tons, a 74,300 - ton decrease [21]. Float Glass - **Supply**: As of July 25, the number of operating float - glass production lines was 222, a decrease of 1 compared to the previous week; the weekly output was 1,108,175 tons, a decrease of 200 tons; as of July 24, the capacity utilization rate was 79.48%, an increase of 0.58 percentage points; the start - up rate was 75%, a decrease of 0.34 percentage points [26]. - **Inventory**: On July 25, the in - factory inventory of float glass was reported at 61.896 million weight - boxes, a decrease of 3.043 million weight - boxes compared to July 18, and the in - factory inventory days were 26.6 days, a decrease of 1.3 days [31]. - **Demand**: As of July 15, the order days of glass deep - processing downstream manufacturers were 9.3 days, a decrease of 0.2 days compared to June 30 [35]. Soda Ash - **Supply**: In the week of July 25, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was reported at 83.02%, a decrease of 1.08 percentage points compared to the previous week, and the output was 723,800 tons, a decrease of 9,400 tons [40]. - **Inventory**: As of July 25, the in - factory inventory of soda ash was reported at 1.8646 million tons, a decrease of 41,000 tons compared to July 18 [45]. - **Production and Sales Ratio**: As of July 25, the production and sales ratio of soda ash was reported at 105.66%, an increase of 11.42 percentage points compared to July 18 [49].

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The rebound of the iron ore sector was driven by coking coal, but the rebound height is limited. The demand for iron ore has declined from its peak but is expected to remain at a relatively high level, which will support the price. It is predicted that the short - term price will remain range - bound, and chasing long positions is not recommended. Although the coking coal price has stabilized and rebounded and market sentiment has improved, the fundamental basis for the coking coal rebound is weak and the sustainability of the sector's strength is questionable [2][3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The current shipment of foreign mines has increased month - on - month, with significant increases in shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream regions, but the volume of Australian shipments to China has decreased month - on - month. In June, which is the peak season for foreign ore shipments, mainstream mines are expected to maintain a steady upward trend in shipments, and the support from the supply side will gradually weaken [3]. Demand - Domestic demand has declined from its peak but is still in a high - level area. The molten iron output has decreased for three consecutive weeks, with the current figure at 241.91 (a month - on - month decrease of 1.69). The short - term demand has peaked, but the current profitability rate of steel mills is relatively high. It is expected that the molten iron output will show an overall downward trend from a high level, but the downward slope will be gentle. High demand is the core factor supporting the price [4]. Inventory - The current domestic demand level is still relatively high. It is expected that the port inventory level will remain relatively stable or tend to decline in the first half of June. However, overall, the inventory is at a high level, and the phased destocking at a high inventory level is difficult to provide upward momentum [4].

Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing a decline in demand and prices, influenced by seasonal factors and supply increases, with expectations of price fluctuations within the range of 700-745 RMB per ton [6]. Supply - Global iron ore shipments have increased by 242.3 million tons to 34.31 million tons this week, with Australian and Brazilian shipments showing mixed trends [4]. - Australian shipments totaled 19.205 million tons, a decrease of 0.927 million tons, while shipments to China fell by 2.814 million tons to 14.998 million tons [4]. - Brazilian shipments rose by 1.715 million tons to 9.483 million tons, indicating a recovery in some ports [4]. Demand - Daily molten iron production averaged 2.4191 million tons, a decrease of 16,900 tons from the previous period [3]. - The blast furnace operating rate is at 83.87%, up by 0.18%, while the capacity utilization rate is at 90.69%, down by 0.64 percentage points [3]. - Steel mill profitability stands at 58.87%, a slight decrease of 0.87 percentage points [3]. Inventory - As of May 29, total inventory at 45 ports is 138.6658 million tons, down by 1.2125 million tons [5]. - Steel mills' imported ore inventory decreased by 1.7115 million tons to 87.5433 million tons, with a slight decline in daily consumption [5]. Market Outlook - The iron ore market is facing downward pressure due to high inventory levels and increased supply, while demand remains resilient despite seasonal weaknesses [6]. - The expectation is for limited declines in molten iron production, with a focus on changes in production levels [6]. - The upcoming peak in shipments from overseas mines may lead to increased supply pressure in the market [6].

Core Viewpoint - The coal and coke market is experiencing a slight downturn, with prices being adjusted downwards by steel mills after an initial price increase, indicating a cautious outlook for the industry [1][6]. Supply - As of May 15, the average daily production of coke from independent coking plants is 671,000 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.2%. The average daily production from 247 steel mills is 473,000 tons, remaining stable week-on-week, leading to a total production of 1,144,000 tons per day, also up by 0.2% week-on-week [3]. Demand - The average daily pig iron output from 247 steel mills is 2,447,700 tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 8,700 tons. This translates to a coke demand of 1,161,000 tons per day, with a daily supply-demand gap decreasing by 4,100 tons week-on-week. Overall, there is a slight decline in weekly coke demand, indicating a high-level retreat in market demand [4]. Inventory - As of May 15, the total coke inventory stands at 10,395,000 tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 97,000 tons. The inventory at independent coking enterprises is 943,000 tons, down by 1,000 tons week-on-week. The inventory at 247 steel mills is 6,638,000 tons, down by 72,000 tons, while port inventory is 2,814,000 tons, down by 23,000 tons week-on-week [5]. Profitability - As of May 15, the average profit per ton of coke nationwide is 7 yuan. The average profit for Shanxi's first-grade coke is 28 yuan, for Shandong's first-grade coke is 62 yuan, while Inner Mongolia's second-grade coke shows a loss of 46 yuan, and Hebei's first-grade coke has an average profit of 64 yuan [2]. Market Sentiment - Following the reduction of tariffs by China on the U.S. starting April 14, there has been a slight rebound in the black series commodities. However, after an initial price increase, major steel mills have reduced coke prices, with expectations for further adjustments. The market sentiment remains cautious, with limited expectations for significant increases in downstream replenishment demand [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [2] Core Viewpoint - The short - term domestic macro - policy is in a window period, the Sino - US tariff conflict has not improved significantly. Although the iron ore is strong in the real - time, the medium - and long - term pattern of supply is loose. It is recommended to take a short - side approach. The short - term supply - demand relationship improvement supports the price, which moves in a range. It is advisable to short at high prices and avoid chasing long positions [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The global shipment has rebounded overall this period, with a slight increase in shipments from Australia and non - mainstream regions. May is the peak season for foreign ore shipments, and it is expected that shipments will maintain a steady upward trend, with the marginal support from the supply side weakening [2] Demand - Domestic demand is at a high level in the same historical period. The molten iron output has reached around 244 + tons per day (according to the Steel Union), only lower than the same period in 2023 (245.88) and exceeding the highest level of last year (239.94). The high demand in the short - term supports the price, but the profit of blast furnace steel mills has declined due to the falling prices of finished products. The impact of tariffs on exports will gradually appear, and the increase and duration of molten iron output are expected to be limited [2] Inventory - The inventory of imported ore in steel mills has increased slightly, and pre - holiday restocking will drive up the inventory level. The port inventory has started to accumulate this period because of the significant increase in unloading and warehousing volume. Considering the high domestic demand, the port inventory will remain relatively stable or tend to decline. Later, attention should be paid to the increase in supply shipments [2] Strategy - It is recommended to conduct range trading. The price range of the 2509 contract this week is 690 - 720 yuan per ton [2]