晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石：市场情绪偏谨慎 短期矿价区间运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 库存方面：钢厂端进口矿日耗保持高位，由于铁矿石价格持续上涨，钢厂端持续补库；因 到港量回落至中位偏低水平，本期港口库存下滑显著，对后市，随着发运回升以及铁水边际减 弱，预计短期库存整体趋于平稳或小幅回升趋势。 观点：短期宏观进入空窗期，黑色系整体维持高位盘整周期。外矿供给支撑边际减弱，8 月份外矿发运逐步回升，但基于当前高炉高利润以及终端需求淡季不淡特征，预计短期国内需 求维持保持相对高位水平，铁矿石供需阶段性平衡，港口库存趋向于平稳或小幅上升，预计短 期铁矿石盘面价格高位震荡运行。 有色金属：于梦雪 价格：价格区间震荡运行。i2601 合约价格区间 745 元/吨~780 元/吨，外盘 FE09 合约价 格区间 98.5~103 美金/吨。 后期关注/风险因素：阅兵限产政策、美联储降息预期、供给回升速度 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号： ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - The steel market is expected to remain strong. The recent positive arbitrage by spot - futures traders has helped digest inventory, and there was no inventory accumulation during the off - season despite high production. If northern steel mills cut production in August and demand recovers in the peak season, it can support high iron - water production in the third quarter and the valuation of the black series. Technically, steel prices have broken through previous highs, and long positions can be considered [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore 09 contract showed an oscillating upward trend. Global iron ore shipments increased last week, but those from Australia and Brazil decreased slightly. The arrival volume at 45 ports decreased last week, and the subsequent average arrival volume is expected to rise slightly. On the demand side, steel mill profit margins are at a relatively high level, the maintenance volume has decreased, and iron - water production has remained high. Steel exports are strong, and short - term iron - water production is resilient. Terminal demand has shown a strong performance during the off - season. In the inventory aspect, port inventory increased slightly last week, and the port clearance volume decreased. In the future, iron - water production in July will remain high, and steel mill profits will continue to improve, providing support for raw materials. However, there are new supply - side policy expectations, and iron ore prices are likely to follow the rise of steel prices due to production cuts [4]. Coke and Coking Coal - Both coke and coking coal futures showed a bottom - bouncing trend. For coke, the factory price has been raised, and the fourth - round price increase of mainstream coking enterprises has been implemented. Supply is still tight as coal mine复产 is slow, and demand has been supported by the recovery of blast furnaces after the end of environmental restrictions in Tangshan. For coking coal, the spot auction price is generally stable with a slight upward trend. The supply is tight, and demand has increased as steel mills have stepped up restocking. Although there was a limit - down in the futures market due to regulatory intervention, the spot market still has price - increase expectations. For both, speculative trading should be cautious, and arbitrage strategies can consider going long on coke/coking coal and short on iron ore [6]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - The prices of various steel products, including rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions, have increased. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China rose from 3390 yuan/ton to 3430 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price of rebar increased from 3311 yuan/ton to 3399 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The prices of steel billets and slab billets changed, with the steel billet price rising by 70 yuan/ton to 3150 yuan/ton. The costs of different types of rebar production decreased, and the profits of steel products in different regions and varieties also decreased. For example, the profit of East China hot - rolled coils decreased by 103 yuan/ton to 230 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average iron - water production increased by 2.6 to 242.6, a 1.1% increase. The production of five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.2 to 867.0, a 0.1% decrease. The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly, with the rebar inventory decreasing by 4.6 to 538.6, a 0.9% decrease, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increasing by 2.3 to 345.2, a 0.7% increase [1]. Transaction and Demand - The daily average building material trading volume increased by 2.1 to 12.2, a 20.4% increase. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 2.0 to 868.1, a 0.2% decrease. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 10.4 to 216.6, a 5.0% increase, and that for hot - rolled coils decreased by 8.6 to 315.2, a 2.6% decrease [1]. Iron Ore Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore types increased slightly, and the basis of the 09 contract for different iron ore types decreased. The 5 - 9 spread decreased, the 9 - 1 spread decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread increased [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of iron ore in Rizhao Port increased slightly, while the prices of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe decreased [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) decreased by 130.7 to 2240.5, a 5.5% decrease. The global shipment volume (weekly) increased by 91.8 to 3200.9, a 3.0% increase. The national monthly import volume increased by 782.0 to 10594.8, an 8.0% increase [4]. Demand - The daily average iron - water production of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased slightly by 0.2 to 242.2, a 0.1% decrease. The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume (weekly) decreased by 7.6 to 315.2, a 2.4% decrease. The national monthly pig iron and crude steel production decreased [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 104.2 to 13686.23, a 0.8% decrease. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) increased by 63.1 to 8885.2, a 0.7% increase. The inventory - available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) increased by 1.0 to 21.0, a 5.0% increase [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - For coke, the 09 and 01 contract prices increased, and the basis decreased. The profit of coking enterprises decreased. For coking coal, the 09 and 01 contract prices also increased, and the basis changed. The profit of sample coal mines increased [6]. Supply - The weekly coke production of the whole - sample coking plants increased slightly, and the weekly production of 247 steel mills also increased slightly. The weekly raw coal and clean coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased [6]. Demand - The weekly iron - water production of 247 steel mills decreased slightly, and the weekly coke production of the whole - sample coking plants increased slightly [6]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory decreased slightly, with the inventory of coking plants and ports decreasing and that of steel mills increasing slightly. The coking coal inventory of steel mills increased, and the port inventory decreased [6]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap increased slightly, indicating a slight improvement in the supply - demand relationship [6].

新纪元期货研究 7/25/2025 黑色系周度报告 石磊 从业资格证号：F0270570 投资咨询证号：Z0011147 时卓然 研究助理 从业资格证号：F03142612 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 黑色系一周行情回顾 | 品种 | 合约 | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | 基差 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025/7/18 | 2025/7/25 | 变动 | 涨跌幅（%） | | | | 螺纹钢 | RB2510 | 3147 | 3356 | 209 | 6.64 | 3380 | 24 | | 热卷 | HC2510 | 3310 | 3507 | 197 | 5.95 | 3580 | 73 | | 铁矿石 | I2509 | 785 | 803 | 17.5 | 2.23 | 806 | 3.5 | | 焦炭 | J2509 | 1518 | 1763 | 245 | 16.14 | 1090 | -673 | | 焦煤 | JM2509 | 926 | 1259 | 333 | 35.96 ...

晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石：焦煤带动板块反弹 不建议追多操作 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 成文时间： 2025 年 6 月 5 日 逻辑：昨日黑色系集体上行，主因是焦煤超跌反弹带动板块情绪转暖，前期黑色系整体交 易需求悲观预期，焦煤、螺纹盘面基差得到较好修复，铁矿石盘面仍保持较大铁水幅度。整体 看，焦煤反弹基本面基础偏弱，短期情绪脉冲推升板块盘面走强但其持续性存疑，铁矿石反弹 高度有限，铁矿石需求高位回落但预计将维持相对高位，对价格形成支撑，预计短期价格仍保 持区间震荡走势，不建议追多操作。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 供应方面：本期外矿发运环比回升，其中巴西和非主流发运显著回升，但澳洲发往中国量 环比回落。6 月份是外矿发运旺季，主流矿山预计发运保持平稳回升态势，供给端支撑力度边 际减弱。 需求方面：国内需求高位回落但仍处于高位区，铁水连续三周回落，本期 241.91（环比 -1.69），短期需求 ...

【现货】 主流矿粉现货价格：日照港（600017）PB粉-3至732元/吨，巴混粉-3至754元/吨。 【需求】 日均铁水产量241.91万吨，环比-1.69万吨；高炉开工率83.87%，环比+0.18%；高炉炼铁产能利用率 90.69%，环比-0.64个百分点；钢厂盈利率58.87%，环比-0.87个百分点。 【供给】 本周全球发运环比小幅回升。全球发运+242.3万吨至3431万吨。澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2868.8万吨，环 比增加78.8万吨。澳洲发运量1920.5万吨，环比减少92.7万吨，其中澳洲发往中国的量1499.8万吨，环比 减少281.4万吨。巴西发运量948.3万吨，环比增加171.5万吨。45港口到港量2536.5万吨，环比增加385.2 万吨。 【库存】 截至5月29日，45港库存13866.58万吨，环比-121.25万吨；日均疏港量高位回落，港口库存延续降势。 钢厂进口矿库存环比-171.15至8754.33万吨，钢厂日耗小幅下降，库存环比下滑，减量集中在大型钢 厂。 【期货】 截止昨日收盘，铁矿主力合约-0.93%（-6.5），收于695.5元/吨。 【基差】 最优交割品为巴混。P ...

【期现】 截至5月15日收盘，焦炭期货呈震荡偏弱走势，焦炭主力2509合约下跌10元/吨（-0.67%）收盘1472，焦 炭远月2601合约下跌9.5（-0.63%）收盘1498.5，9-1价差走弱至-27。焦炭现货首轮提涨落地后，钢厂再 次提降焦炭价格。汾渭吕梁准一级冶金焦出厂价格报1210元/吨，环比持平，对应厂库仓单1493元/吨， 基差+21；日照准一级冶金焦贸易价格报1300元/吨，环比持平，对应港口仓单1438/吨（对标），基 差-34。 【利润】 【库存】 截至5月15日，焦炭总库存1039.5万吨，周环比-9.7，其中，全样本独立焦企焦炭库存94.3万吨，周环 比-0.1，247家钢厂焦炭库存663.8万吨，周环比-7.2，港口库存281.4万吨，周环比-2.3。 【观点】 中国对美国关税自4月14日开始正式下调，宏观利多驱动黑色系小幅反弹。现货端，焦炭提涨仅一轮落 地后，13日主流钢厂提降焦炭价格，预计16日落地。五一节后焦炭出厂价格暂时以稳为主，港口贸易价 格偏弱运行。供应端，由于下游铁水高位，焦企订单较好，开工持续提升，焦煤让利使焦化利润也有所 修复；需求端，五月铁水继续保持244万吨/ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [2] Core Viewpoint - The short - term domestic macro - policy is in a window period, the Sino - US tariff conflict has not improved significantly. Although the iron ore is strong in the real - time, the medium - and long - term pattern of supply is loose. It is recommended to take a short - side approach. The short - term supply - demand relationship improvement supports the price, which moves in a range. It is advisable to short at high prices and avoid chasing long positions [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The global shipment has rebounded overall this period, with a slight increase in shipments from Australia and non - mainstream regions. May is the peak season for foreign ore shipments, and it is expected that shipments will maintain a steady upward trend, with the marginal support from the supply side weakening [2] Demand - Domestic demand is at a high level in the same historical period. The molten iron output has reached around 244 + tons per day (according to the Steel Union), only lower than the same period in 2023 (245.88) and exceeding the highest level of last year (239.94). The high demand in the short - term supports the price, but the profit of blast furnace steel mills has declined due to the falling prices of finished products. The impact of tariffs on exports will gradually appear, and the increase and duration of molten iron output are expected to be limited [2] Inventory - The inventory of imported ore in steel mills has increased slightly, and pre - holiday restocking will drive up the inventory level. The port inventory has started to accumulate this period because of the significant increase in unloading and warehousing volume. Considering the high domestic demand, the port inventory will remain relatively stable or tend to decline. Later, attention should be paid to the increase in supply shipments [2] Strategy - It is recommended to conduct range trading. The price range of the 2509 contract this week is 690 - 720 yuan per ton [2]