1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, the profitability of steel mills was still in a low - range, but slightly improved compared to the previous period. Steel prices maintained a low - level volatile operation. The cost of raw materials remained resilient, and the immediate profit repair space for steel mills was limited. The production side continued to be cautious. The monthly profit rate of steel mills was 39.39%, slightly up from the previous month, but still in the low - profit range [11]. - In terms of supply, in January 2026, the output of rebar was 9.6894 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 180,000 tons (+1.94%) and a month - on - month increase of 31.98%. The output of hot - rolled coils was 15.33 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 398,900 tons (-2.54%) and a month - on - month increase of 26.85%. The daily average output of hot metal was 2.2839 million tons, remaining at a moderately low level. Affected by the approaching Spring Festival and limited profit repair, steel mills' production was still cautious, but due to the low base in the previous period, the output of finished products increased month - on - month. The output of rebar increased against the seasonal trend, and the output of plates was relatively neutral, with the overall supply pressure easing [11]. - Regarding demand, in January 2026, the apparent consumption of rebar was 9.2766 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5974 million tons (+20.80%) and a month - on - month increase of 11.58%. The apparent consumption of hot - rolled coils was 15.5464 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 630,000 tons (+4.24%) and a month - on - month increase of 26.17%. Overall, the demand side improved significantly year - on - year and showed seasonal repair characteristics month - on - month. The demand for rebar increased temporarily driven by the low base and concentrated project rush, but the overall real - estate investment was still weak, restricting the sustainability of demand. The demand for hot - rolled coils was relatively stable, with a slight year - on - year increase supported by the resilience of the manufacturing industry and exports, without obvious weakening [11]. - In terms of inventory, as of the end of January 2026, the inventory of rebar was 4.7553 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.776 million tons. The inventory of hot - rolled coils was 3.5558 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 330,000 tons (-8.50%). Structurally, the inventory of building materials decreased significantly year - on - year, and the inventory level of plates also decreased significantly compared to the same period last year, with the overall inventory pressure continuing to ease. As the Spring Festival approached, short - term demand might weaken again, and the inventory reduction rhythm might slow down, but the low - inventory pattern year - on - year supported prices [11]. - Currently, the black - series is in a bottom - game stage with a mix of long and short factors. On the one hand, the domestic policy tone remains marginally loose, providing support for demand expectations. On the other hand, the uncertainty of overseas monetary policy has increased, and market volatility has intensified. In the short term, the black - series will mainly operate in a range - bound manner, and the trend opportunities are not yet clear. Attention should be paid to inventory changes around the Spring Festival, the recovery rhythm of plate demand, and the marginal changes in "dual - carbon" related policies [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Valuation**: In January 2026, the profitability of steel mills was in a low - range but slightly improved. Steel prices were volatile at a low level, and the cost of raw materials was resilient, limiting the profit repair space. The monthly profit rate of steel mills was 39.39%, still in the low - profit range [11]. - **Supply**: Rebar output increased year - on - year and month - on - month, while hot - rolled coil output decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. The daily average output of hot metal was at a moderately low level. Steel mills' production was cautious, but the output of finished products increased month - on - month due to the low base [11]. - **Demand**: The apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The demand for rebar increased temporarily, but real - estate investment restricted its sustainability. The demand for hot - rolled coils was relatively stable [11]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased year - on - year. The inventory of building materials decreased significantly, and the inventory of plates also decreased. As the Spring Festival approached, short - term demand might weaken, and the inventory reduction rhythm might slow down [11]. - **Summary**: The black - series is in a bottom - game stage with a mix of long and short factors. In the short term, it will operate in a range - bound manner, and attention should be paid to inventory changes, plate demand recovery, and "dual - carbon" policies [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Multiple charts show the price trends, trading volumes, basis, and price differences of rebar, hot - rolled coils, cold - rolled coils, and other steel products in different regions and contract months, as well as the price differences between different regions and different steel products [23][25][28]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: Charts show the盘面 profit of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the gross profit per ton of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils, and the profit of rebar blast furnaces and electric furnaces [78][81][83]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory of rebar, hot - rolled coils, including total inventory, factory inventory, and social inventory, as well as the inventory of steel billets and other related products [91][94][104]. 3.4 Cost End - Charts show the ratios of rebar to iron ore and coke futures, daily average hot metal and crude steel output, the price of billets, the price difference between rebar and billets, the price of scrap steel, and the consumption of scrap steel [110][113][115]. 3.5 Supply End - Charts show the output, cumulative year - on - year output, and capacity utilization rate of rebar and hot - rolled coils [130][132][135]. 3.6 Demand and Import - Export - **Demand**: Charts show the apparent consumption and cumulative year - on - year consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils, as well as the production and export volume of household appliances such as refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners [142][145][149]. - **Import - Export**: Charts show the monthly import and export volume of steel, rebar, and plates [155][157][160].

晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石： 需求驱动趋弱 逢高空配为主 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 逻辑：近期黑色系淡季特征明显且宏观预期较弱，铁矿石受供给端回升预期以及需求端因突 发安全事件影响而减弱，叠加补库需求驱动逐步减弱，价格高位回落。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 供应方面：当前外矿发运进入发运淡季，周度发运量连续三周环比回落，根据季节性规律， 在 2 月中旬之前，外矿发运将保持环比走弱态势但整体会高于去年同期，主因是去年同期澳洲受 飓风影响导致发运基数偏低；国产矿供给同样处于淡季，整体看，供给端步入季节性环比收缩阶 段，但供给端支撑力度提升则需要出现超预期下滑。 成 材：武秋婷 需求方面：国内需求小幅回升，钢厂盈利水平小幅回升但低于去年同 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information in the provided document about the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diverse situation. In the macro - financial field, policies such as central bank's monetary policy and special treasury bond issuance have an impact on the economy. In various commodity markets, different varieties have different trends due to factors such as supply - demand relationship, policy, and geopolitical situation [10][14][17]. - For different commodities, specific investment strategies are proposed. For example, in the black market, steel is expected to oscillate and iron ore is relatively weak; in the energy - chemical market, the price of crude oil may turn weak, while some other products have their own specific trends and trading suggestions [17][37]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, with room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. The first batch of 93.6 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds has been issued, which will drive over 460 billion yuan of total investment. The central bank will conduct a 900 - billion - yuan MLF operation on January 23, with a net injection of 70 billion yuan [10]. - The unemployment rates of different age groups in the urban labor force in December 2025 are announced. Nine departments jointly issued an opinion to promote the high - quality development of the drug retail industry [10]. - International news includes the US - Greenland agreement, the US's attempt to subvert the Cuban regime, the US GDP growth in the third quarter of 2025, inflation indicators, and the expected policy rate of the Bank of Japan [11][12]. Macro - finance Stock Index - The A - share market is in a narrow - range consolidation. If there is no further increase in volume and a reverse - enveloping negative line in the near future, the stock index may enter an adjustment phase [14]. Treasury Bond Futures - The medium - term liquidity expansion may repair the tight capital situation. The ultra - long - term bonds may continue to rebound due to the decline in risk appetite [15]. Black Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - The macro - policy has limited short - term impact on demand. The supply of the steel industry is relatively stable. The fundamentals of steel are acceptable, but the downstream demand is weak. Iron ore supply is abundant, and the overall black market is expected to oscillate. Steel will oscillate and iron ore is relatively weak [17]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may oscillate and decline in the short term. Later, attention should be paid to the disturbances from coal mine production, safety inspections, and changes in downstream procurement and iron - making output [17]. Ferroalloys - The medium - term price fluctuation center of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon is slightly rising. It is recommended to go long on ferrosilicon on dips in the medium term, and hold the short positions of manganese silicon established at high levels [18]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Lithium Carbonate - The demand is good, the supply is disturbed, and the market sentiment is rising. In the short term, lithium carbonate will run with a strong bias [22]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is under pressure at the upper limit and will oscillate. Wait for the opportunity to sell out - of - the - money call options after the rebound. Polysilicon will also oscillate, waiting for the guidance of anti -内卷 and anti - monopoly rectification plans [23][24]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The short - term supply is loose, but the long - term supply is expected to shrink. Zhengzhou cotton is in a short - term strong consolidation state, and short - term trading is recommended [25]. Sugar - Domestic sugar is in a season of both supply and demand. Zhengzhou sugar is under pressure from external and domestic supply, and short - term trading in the low - price range is recommended [28]. Eggs - As the Spring Festival approaches, the egg spot price may weaken before the festival. The upside of the egg futures is limited, and a short - selling idea is recommended at the current position [30]. Apples - The apple futures may run strongly. The market is in a game between supply support and demand restraint, and attention should be paid to the consumption performance during the Spring Festival stocking period [32]. Corn - The corn futures have large differences in the market. Pay attention to the port collecting situation, and short - term trading is recommended [33]. Red Dates - Keep an eye on the performance of the consumer market during the peak season. Currently, the market is expected to oscillate weakly [33]. Pigs - The market sentiment has peaked, and the breeding side is more willing to sell. The spot price may decline, and it is advisable to short the near - month contracts on rallies [35]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Due to the upcoming negotiation and the increase in EIA inventory, the oil price may turn weak. However, attention should be paid to the Iranian situation [37]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil is mainly affected by geopolitical factors and will fluctuate with the oil price [38]. Plastics - Polyolefins have large supply pressure, but the upstream losses may support the price. The short - term trend is strong, but the rebound space is limited [39]. Rubber - Before the Spring Festival, downstream replenishment and the upcoming suspension of overseas production may support the price. The fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and it is advisable to sell out - of - the - money put options on dips [40]. Synthetic Rubber - The price of synthetic rubber is mainly affected by the price of butadiene and market sentiment. It may oscillate upward in the first half of the year, and it is advisable to go long on dips [42]. Methanol - The short - term inventory of methanol is decreasing smoothly, but there is still a possibility of inventory accumulation at the end of the month. In the long term, the fundamentals are improving, and it is advisable to consider a slightly long - position configuration for the far - month contracts after the callback [43]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda spot is under pressure, but the futures can be considered from a long - position perspective [44]. Asphalt - The asphalt price fluctuates with the oil price and is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [45]. Polyester Industry Chain - The market is expected to run strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to consider rolling long positions at low prices or positive spreads between May and September contracts of PX and PTA [46]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - There is support from import costs, and the short - term downside is limited. In the long term, a light - position short - selling attempt can be considered [48]. Pulp - The pulp market is expected to oscillate. The spot price has回调, and the futures may repair the basis. The downside is limited [49]. Logs - The fundamentals of logs are weakly oscillating, and the spot price is temporarily stable. The futures are expected to oscillate [50]. Urea - The urea futures are expected to oscillate strongly. The spot market is stable, and attention should be paid to the improvement of spot market liquidity [50].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, steel and ore generally showed an upward trend, with iron ore performing better than finished steel. After the New - Year holiday, the market's optimism about macro - policies increased, especially the "Two New Policies" driving the overall rise of the black - series. The increase in hot metal production and steel mill profits led to high expectations for steel mill restocking, making iron ore the strongest performer. However, the current rise is still a game between strong expectations and weak reality, with no substantial improvement in the fundamental situation. The apparent demand has dropped significantly compared to before the holiday, indicating a seasonal off - peak season. Therefore, the report is not optimistic about the sustained strength of prices. It is recommended to maintain a view of weakening in a volatile market, focusing on the accumulation of steel social inventory and the intensity of steel mill restocking of iron ore [64] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Raw Material Market Condition Analysis 1.1 One - Week Data Changes - PB powder price increased from 802 yuan/wet ton to 822 yuan/wet ton, a rise of 20 yuan/wet ton; Bar - mixed powder price rose from 846 yuan/wet ton to 857 yuan/wet ton, an increase of 11 yuan/wet ton. - PB powder's spot landing profit increased from 10.46 yuan/wet ton to 14.45 yuan/wet ton, a gain of 3.99 yuan/wet ton; Bar - mixed powder's spot landing profit decreased from 29.15 yuan/wet ton to 8.94 yuan/wet ton, a drop of 20.21 yuan/wet ton. - Australia's shipping volume to China decreased from 1802.3 tons to 1553.8 tons, a reduction of 248.5 tons; Brazil's shipping volume decreased from 944 tons to 792.5 tons, a decline of 151.5 tons. - Imported iron ore port inventory increased from 16721.79 tons to 17044.44 tons, a rise of 322.65 tons; Imported iron ore arrival volume increased from 2727.8 tons to 2824.7 tons, an increase of 96.9 tons. - Imported iron ore port clearance volume decreased from 340.21 tons to 336.96 tons, a drop of 3.25 tons; Iron ore port daily trading volume increased from 61.8 tons to 93.7 tons, a rise of 31.9 tons. - Average daily hot metal production increased from 227.43 tons to 229.5 tons, a gain of 2.07 tons; Steel mill profitability decreased from 38.1% to 37.66%, a decline of 0.44 percentage points [6] Other aspects - Also analyzed iron ore port spot prices, iron ore futures - spot basis, iron ore import profit, iron ore shipping volume, iron ore port and steel mill inventory, iron ore arrival and clearance volume, steel enterprise production, iron ore port average daily trading volume, and steel mill average daily hot metal [8][13][15] 2. Market Current Situation Analysis 2.1 One - Week Data Changes - Shanghai rebar price decreased from 3300 yuan/ton to 3290 yuan/ton, a drop of 10 yuan/ton; Shanghai hot - rolled coil price remained stable at 3270 yuan/ton. - Blast furnace operating rate increased from 78.94% to 79.31%, a rise of 0.37 percentage points; Electric furnace operating rate increased from 68.63% to 72.97%, a gain of 4.34 percentage points. - Rebar blast furnace profit increased from 48 yuan/ton to 63 yuan/ton, a rise of 15 yuan/ton; Hot - rolled coil blast furnace profit increased from - 29 yuan/ton to - 15 yuan/ton, a gain of 14 yuan/ton. - Rebar electric furnace profit decreased from - 12 yuan/ton to - 32 yuan/ton, a drop of 20 yuan/ton. - Rebar weekly production increased from 188.22 tons to 191.04 tons, a rise of 2.82 tons; Hot - rolled coil weekly production increased from 304.51 tons to 305.51 tons, a gain of 1 ton [36] 2.2 Another One - Week Data Changes - Rebar weekly social inventory increased from 282.66 tons to 290.18 tons, a rise of 7.52 tons; Rebar weekly enterprise inventory increased from 139.37 tons to 147.93 tons, a gain of 8.56 tons. - Hot - rolled coil weekly social inventory increased from 288.64 tons to 290.81 tons, a rise of 2.17 tons; Hot - rolled coil weekly enterprise inventory decreased from 83.32 tons to 77.32 tons, a drop of 6 tons. - Rebar weekly apparent consumption decreased from 200.44 tons to 174.96 tons, a decline of 25.48 tons; Hot - rolled coil weekly apparent consumption decreased from 310.77 tons to 308.34 tons, a drop of 2.43 tons. - Building materials trading volume increased from 82784 tons to 89295 tons, a rise of 6511 tons [38] Other aspects - Also analyzed rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai, rebar and hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai [39][40][41] 3. Supply - Demand Data Analysis - Analyzed blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates, rebar and hot - rolled coil actual production, steel profit, steel inventory, building steel trading volume, rebar and hot - rolled coil weekly apparent consumption changes, steel export volume, real estate investment and sales data, housing construction area data, and manufacturing PMI data [43][45][47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coking coal 2601 contract is in a volatile state, with mine inventory accumulating and environmental and safety inspections starting [5]. - The coke 2601 contract is also in a volatile state, and some coke enterprises are proposing a second round of price increases [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price - Coking coal warehouse receipt price is 1124, Mongolian coal warehouse receipt price is 1222, coke warehouse receipt price is 1586, and the overseas warehouse receipt price of Australian coal is 1579 [11]. 3.2 Demand, Profit, and Production - The coking plant's on - paper profit (01 contract) is 145, with a week - on - week decrease of 26 [11]. - The full - caliber daily coke output is 111.23 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.27 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2.75 tons [11]. - The pig iron output is 240.95 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.59 tons and a year - on - year increase of 6.59 tons [11]. - The coal washery output is 26.79 tons (due to changes in the coal washery sample data), a week - on - week decrease of 0.74 tons [11]. 3.3 Inventory - **Coke Inventory**: The total coke inventory is 891.88 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17.87 tons and a year - on - year increase of 76.55 tons. Coking plant coke inventory is 57.29 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.55 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 14.82 tons. Steel mill coke inventory is 639.44 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.38 tons and a year - on - year increase of 76.45 tons. Port inventory is 195.15 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.06 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.92 tons [13]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory is 2058.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23.22 tons and a year - on - year increase of 37.26 tons. Coking plant coking coal inventory is 997.37 tons, a week - on - week increase of 38.31 tons and a year - on - year increase of 39.91 tons. Steel mill coking coal inventory is 788.32 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.19 tons and a year - on - year increase of 52.66 tons. Port inventory is 272.71 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 22.28 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 137.85 tons. Coal washery inventory is 290.41 tons (due to data sample changes), a week - on - week increase of 10.18 tons [15]. 3.4 Import and Export - From January to August, the imported coking coal was 72.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.01%. From January to August, the exported coke was 4.95 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.15% [17].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report Recently, the disturbances from macro and industry - related policies have intensified, leading to a significant increase in price volatility. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction of iron ore itself is weak. The pressure of产业链 profit contraction and the structural contradiction of finished product inventory limit the upside potential of the price. There is real - world pressure on the upside of the iron ore price, but the high domestic molten iron production supports the price. With the current port clearance and arrival levels, the pressure of port inventory accumulation in October is not significant, so there is support on the downside. The price will fluctuate within a range [3][4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - External ore shipments decreased slightly on a month - on - month basis. Among them, the shipment decline of Rio Tinto in Australia was relatively significant, while the shipment from Brazil was relatively stable. The arrival volume reached a new high this year. Overall, the support from the supply side continued to weaken [3]. Demand - Domestic demand decreased on a month - on - month basis but remained at a high level, supporting the iron ore price. The blast furnace steel mills continued a slight downward trend this period. Blast furnace复产 occurred in the Hebei region, which was the planned resumption of production after the previous maintenance of blast furnaces. The maintained blast furnaces were mainly concentrated in Hebei, Northeast China, and Inner Mongolia, mainly for short - term maintenance. It is expected that they can resume production within two or three weeks. The average daily molten iron output this period was 241.54 tons (month - on - month - 0.27), and the domestic demand was higher than the average level in August (240.5). Overall, the high molten iron production supported the iron ore price [4]. Price and Strategy - The price will fluctuate within a range. The strategy is to conduct range - bound operations and use covered call options [4].

Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core Viewpoints - The external macro - influence is more positive, and there are still incremental expectations for domestic monetary and fiscal policies in the later stage. The supply growth rate of iron ore exceeds expectations, while the demand side remains resilient. The overall supply - demand relationship has shifted from tight - balance to balance. In the short term, iron ore lacks an obvious upward driver, and its price is expected to follow the market trend [3] Summaries by Related Catalogs Market Logic - Yesterday, the black - series commodities traded under the weak reality. The reasons are the pressure of futures - spot convergence in the near - month delivery logic, the suppression of the main contract price rebound by the cost of warehouse receipts of iron ore and coking coal 09 contracts, and the decline in the sentiment of the equity market which also suppresses the black - series sentiment. The super - seasonal inventory accumulation of rebar at the finished - product end has depressed the valuation of the black - series, and the high - level decline of blast - furnace profits has limited the space for molten iron increase. The unexpected increase in supply has also suppressed the market [2] Supply - The overseas ore shipments have slightly declined but remain at a relatively high level. The shipments of Australian Rio Tinto and FMG mines have increased significantly, while the Brazilian shipments have declined significantly after reaching a historical high, and the non - mainstream shipments have also declined from a high level. The arrival volume is at a moderately high level, and the supply - side pressure has weakened [2] Demand - The domestic daily average molten iron output has increased slightly for two consecutive weeks, with the current daily average molten iron output of 240.75 (a month - on - month increase of 0.09). The profitability rate of steel mills has declined from a high level, and the blast - furnace profit has also continuously declined. The short - process steelmaking has fallen into an overall loss again, which protects the demand for iron ore to a certain extent. The support of domestic demand for prices has weakened marginally. Attention should be paid to whether the molten iron output can remain high and the military parade production - restriction in North China [2] Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ore at steel mills remains high, and the inventory at steel mills has declined month - on - month. The port inventory has continued to accumulate slightly. With the increase in shipments and the decline in molten iron output, the inventory is expected to remain stable or increase slightly in the short term [2] Price - This week, the price will fluctuate within a range. The main contract of Dalian iron ore futures (2601 contract) will be in the range of 775 - 810 yuan/ton, corresponding to the external market FE09 price of about 101 - 105.5 US dollars/ton [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term macro enters a window period, the black series maintains a high - level consolidation cycle. The support from overseas ore supply weakens marginally. In August, overseas ore shipments gradually recover. Considering the current high blast - furnace profits and the off - season but non - weak terminal demand, domestic demand is expected to remain at a relatively high level in the short term. The supply and demand of iron ore are in a stage of balance, and port inventories tend to be stable or rise slightly. It is expected that the short - term iron ore futures price will fluctuate at a high level [3]. - The price will fluctuate within a range. The price range of the i2601 contract is 745 yuan/ton - 780 yuan/ton, and the price range of the overseas FE09 contract is 98.5 - 103 US dollars/ton [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Logic - Yesterday, the prices of the black series continued to rise, with coking coal prices strengthening significantly again and iron ore prices remaining relatively stable. The finished product end faces the cost pressure of off - peak electricity for short - process production, and the market sentiment is cautious. The impact of finished product price fluctuations on iron ore needs to be monitored. The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore itself needs to accumulate, and it will mainly fluctuate at a high level in the short term [2]. Supply - The short - term support from the supply side is weakening. Overseas ore shipments will gradually enter a seasonal recovery cycle. After the maintenance periods of BHP and FMG mines in Australia end, their shipments recover, while Brazilian shipments decline this period. The short - term arrival volume has rebounded from a low level, increasing the immediate supply pressure [2]. Demand - The average daily hot metal production in China has declined for two consecutive weeks with an expanding decline. The average daily hot metal production this period is 240.71 (a week - on - week decrease of 1.52). However, the profitability rate of steel mills is continuously rising, and the blast - furnace profit level is relatively good. The short - term demand for iron ore remains resilient, and the high domestic demand strongly supports prices. Whether hot metal production can remain at a high level needs to be monitored later [2]. Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ore at steel mills remains high. Due to the continuous rise in iron ore prices, steel mills continue to replenish their stocks. As the arrival volume has dropped to a relatively low - to - medium level, the port inventory has decreased significantly this period. In the future, with the recovery of shipments and the marginal weakening of hot metal production, the inventory is expected to remain stable or rise slightly in the short term [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - The steel market is expected to remain strong. The recent positive arbitrage by spot - futures traders has helped digest inventory, and there was no inventory accumulation during the off - season despite high production. If northern steel mills cut production in August and demand recovers in the peak season, it can support high iron - water production in the third quarter and the valuation of the black series. Technically, steel prices have broken through previous highs, and long positions can be considered [1]. Iron Ore - The iron ore 09 contract showed an oscillating upward trend. Global iron ore shipments increased last week, but those from Australia and Brazil decreased slightly. The arrival volume at 45 ports decreased last week, and the subsequent average arrival volume is expected to rise slightly. On the demand side, steel mill profit margins are at a relatively high level, the maintenance volume has decreased, and iron - water production has remained high. Steel exports are strong, and short - term iron - water production is resilient. Terminal demand has shown a strong performance during the off - season. In the inventory aspect, port inventory increased slightly last week, and the port clearance volume decreased. In the future, iron - water production in July will remain high, and steel mill profits will continue to improve, providing support for raw materials. However, there are new supply - side policy expectations, and iron ore prices are likely to follow the rise of steel prices due to production cuts [4]. Coke and Coking Coal - Both coke and coking coal futures showed a bottom - bouncing trend. For coke, the factory price has been raised, and the fourth - round price increase of mainstream coking enterprises has been implemented. Supply is still tight as coal mine复产 is slow, and demand has been supported by the recovery of blast furnaces after the end of environmental restrictions in Tangshan. For coking coal, the spot auction price is generally stable with a slight upward trend. The supply is tight, and demand has increased as steel mills have stepped up restocking. Although there was a limit - down in the futures market due to regulatory intervention, the spot market still has price - increase expectations. For both, speculative trading should be cautious, and arbitrage strategies can consider going long on coke/coking coal and short on iron ore [6]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - The prices of various steel products, including rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions, have increased. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China rose from 3390 yuan/ton to 3430 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price of rebar increased from 3311 yuan/ton to 3399 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The prices of steel billets and slab billets changed, with the steel billet price rising by 70 yuan/ton to 3150 yuan/ton. The costs of different types of rebar production decreased, and the profits of steel products in different regions and varieties also decreased. For example, the profit of East China hot - rolled coils decreased by 103 yuan/ton to 230 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average iron - water production increased by 2.6 to 242.6, a 1.1% increase. The production of five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.2 to 867.0, a 0.1% decrease. The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly, with the rebar inventory decreasing by 4.6 to 538.6, a 0.9% decrease, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increasing by 2.3 to 345.2, a 0.7% increase [1]. Transaction and Demand - The daily average building material trading volume increased by 2.1 to 12.2, a 20.4% increase. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 2.0 to 868.1, a 0.2% decrease. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 10.4 to 216.6, a 5.0% increase, and that for hot - rolled coils decreased by 8.6 to 315.2, a 2.6% decrease [1]. Iron Ore Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore types increased slightly, and the basis of the 09 contract for different iron ore types decreased. The 5 - 9 spread decreased, the 9 - 1 spread decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread increased [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of iron ore in Rizhao Port increased slightly, while the prices of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe decreased [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) decreased by 130.7 to 2240.5, a 5.5% decrease. The global shipment volume (weekly) increased by 91.8 to 3200.9, a 3.0% increase. The national monthly import volume increased by 782.0 to 10594.8, an 8.0% increase [4]. Demand - The daily average iron - water production of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased slightly by 0.2 to 242.2, a 0.1% decrease. The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume (weekly) decreased by 7.6 to 315.2, a 2.4% decrease. The national monthly pig iron and crude steel production decreased [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 104.2 to 13686.23, a 0.8% decrease. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) increased by 63.1 to 8885.2, a 0.7% increase. The inventory - available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) increased by 1.0 to 21.0, a 5.0% increase [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - For coke, the 09 and 01 contract prices increased, and the basis decreased. The profit of coking enterprises decreased. For coking coal, the 09 and 01 contract prices also increased, and the basis changed. The profit of sample coal mines increased [6]. Supply - The weekly coke production of the whole - sample coking plants increased slightly, and the weekly production of 247 steel mills also increased slightly. The weekly raw coal and clean coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased [6]. Demand - The weekly iron - water production of 247 steel mills decreased slightly, and the weekly coke production of the whole - sample coking plants increased slightly [6]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory decreased slightly, with the inventory of coking plants and ports decreasing and that of steel mills increasing slightly. The coking coal inventory of steel mills increased, and the port inventory decreased [6]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap increased slightly, indicating a slight improvement in the supply - demand relationship [6].

Report Information - Report Title: Black Series Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: July 25, 2025 [2] - Author: Shi Lei, Shi Zhuoran [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In the medium to long term, due to the continuous fermentation of anti - involution policies and the confirmation of coal mine production inspections, the black series futures showed an upward trend in the market, but the impact on iron ore was relatively small. Steel mills' profitability continued to increase, daily average pig iron production slightly declined, and foreign ore shipments rebounded. The black series is expected to operate in a volatile and upward - trending manner, and attention should be paid to relevant policy announcements and implementation [52]. - In the short term, the black series will continue its upward trend, and attention should be paid to policy implementation and macro - sentiment changes [53]. - For glass and soda ash, in the medium to long term, the float glass start - up rate has slightly declined, with potential future production cuts, continuous reduction of in - factory inventory, and cost - side support for prices, but limited improvement in demand. Soda ash production has decreased, but the oversupply situation persists, and the recent price increase is mainly due to macro - level disturbances [56]. - In the short term, the glass futures contract has risen significantly, and a bullish view is maintained in the short term. The soda ash 09 contract has also risen, but the oversupply situation remains unchanged, and excessive chasing of the rise is not recommended [57]. Summary by Directory Black Series Weekly Market Review | Variety | Contract | July 18, 2025 | July 25, 2025 | Change | Percentage Change (%) | Spot Price | Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | RB2510 | 3147 | 3356 | 209 | 6.64 | 3380 | 24 | | Hot - Rolled Coil | HC2510 | 3310 | 3507 | 197 | 5.95 | 3580 | 73 | | Iron Ore | I2509 | 785 | 803 | 17.5 | 2.23 | 806 | 3.5 | | Coke | J2509 | 1518 | 1763 | 245 | 16.14 | 1090 | - 673 | | Coking Coal | JM2509 | 926 | 1259 | 333 | 35.96 | 1280 | 21 | | Glass | FG509 | 1081 | 1362 | 281 | 25.99 | 1180 | - 182 | | Soda Ash | SA509 | 1216 | 1440 | 224 | 18.42 | 1250 | - 190 | [3] Rebar - **Profit**: On July 24, the blast - furnace profit of rebar was reported at 256 yuan/ton, a 93 - yuan increase compared to July 17 [7]. - **Supply**: As of July 25, the blast - furnace start - up rate was 83.46% (unchanged from the previous week), the electric - furnace start - up rate was 62.18% (an increase of 3.21 percentage points), the daily average pig iron production was 242.23 tons (a decrease of 0.21 tons), and the rebar production was 2.1196 million tons (an increase of 29,000 tons) [12]. - **Demand**: In the week of July 25, the apparent consumption of rebar was reported at 2.1658 million tons, a 104,100 - ton increase from the previous week. As of July 24, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was reported at 111,473 tons, a 16,597 - ton increase compared to July 17 [16]. - **Inventory**: In the week of July 25, the social inventory of rebar was reported at 3.7297 million tons, a 21,800 - ton increase from the previous week, and the in - factory inventory was reported at 1.6567 million tons, a 74,300 - ton decrease [21]. Float Glass - **Supply**: As of July 25, the number of operating float - glass production lines was 222, a decrease of 1 compared to the previous week; the weekly output was 1,108,175 tons, a decrease of 200 tons; as of July 24, the capacity utilization rate was 79.48%, an increase of 0.58 percentage points; the start - up rate was 75%, a decrease of 0.34 percentage points [26]. - **Inventory**: On July 25, the in - factory inventory of float glass was reported at 61.896 million weight - boxes, a decrease of 3.043 million weight - boxes compared to July 18, and the in - factory inventory days were 26.6 days, a decrease of 1.3 days [31]. - **Demand**: As of July 15, the order days of glass deep - processing downstream manufacturers were 9.3 days, a decrease of 0.2 days compared to June 30 [35]. Soda Ash - **Supply**: In the week of July 25, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was reported at 83.02%, a decrease of 1.08 percentage points compared to the previous week, and the output was 723,800 tons, a decrease of 9,400 tons [40]. - **Inventory**: As of July 25, the in - factory inventory of soda ash was reported at 1.8646 million tons, a decrease of 41,000 tons compared to July 18 [45]. - **Production and Sales Ratio**: As of July 25, the production and sales ratio of soda ash was reported at 105.66%, an increase of 11.42 percentage points compared to July 18 [49].