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铁矿石:发运恢复 铁水回升 补库需求支撑铁矿价格偏强运行
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-17 03:09
Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing a slight recovery in demand and supply dynamics, with a notable increase in global shipments and a decrease in port arrivals, indicating a potential tightening of the market [7]. Supply - Global iron ore shipments have significantly increased, reaching 35.731 million tons, up by 8.169 million tons week-on-week [5]. - Port arrivals have decreased to 23.623 million tons, down by 0.857 million tons week-on-week, primarily due to the recovery of shipments from Brazilian ports [5][7]. Demand - Daily average iron and steel production has risen to 2.4055 million tons, an increase of 117,100 tons week-on-week [4]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces is at 83.83%, up by 3.43% week-on-week, while the capacity utilization rate is at 90.18%, up by 4.39% week-on-week [4]. - Steel mill profit margins have slightly decreased to 60.17%, down by 0.87% week-on-week [4]. Inventory - Port inventory has seen a slight decrease, with a total of 138.4947 million tons, down by 0.02 million tons [6]. - The average daily dispatch from ports has increased to 3.3128 million tons, up by 0.135 million tons week-on-week [6]. - Steel mill imported ore inventory has increased to 89.9305 million tons, up by 5.318 million tons week-on-week [6]. Market Outlook - The iron ore 2601 contract has shown a fluctuating upward trend, with a closing price of 803.5 yuan/ton, up by 7.5 yuan (+0.94%) [2][7]. - The market is expected to remain tight, with a suggested trading range of 780-850 yuan/ton for the iron ore 2601 contract, and a recommendation to buy on dips [7].
《黑色》日报-20250917
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 01:48
Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][4][6] Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices are influenced by weak demand and expected contraction in coal supply. In the short - term, prices are expected to rise due to the impact of coking coal and pre - National Day restocking. Consider short - term long positions, with resistance levels at 3350 yuan for rebar and 3500 yuan for hot - rolled coils [1] Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market is in a tight - balanced state. Unilateral trading should be viewed with a bullish bias, with a reference range of 780 - 850. It is recommended to go long on the iron ore 2601 contract and short on hot - rolled coils in arbitrage [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, it is recommended to go long on the coke 2601 contract at a reference range of 1650 - 1800 and conduct an arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke. For coking coal, it is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2601 contract at a reference range of 1070 - 1300 and also conduct an arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke [6] Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts showed varying degrees of increase. For example, rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China increased by 30 yuan, 20 yuan, and 40 yuan respectively [1] Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices increased by 20 yuan, and the cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 23 yuan. The profits of hot - rolled coils in East China, North China, and South China decreased by 9 yuan, 9 yuan, and 19 yuan respectively [1] Mills - The daily average pig iron output increased by 11.6 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 3.4 to 857.2, a decline of 0.4% [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 13.9 to 1514.6, a rise of 0.9%. The rebar inventory increased by 13.9 to 653.9, a rise of 2.2% [1] Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.1 to 11.8, a rise of 1.0%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 15.5 to 843.3, a rise of 1.9% [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of various iron ore types in Rizhao Port increased slightly. For example, the price of Carajás fines increased by 10 yuan to 916 yuan/ton. The basis of the 01 contract for various iron ore types decreased significantly [4] Supply - The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 816.9 to 3573.1, a rise of 29.6%, while the 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 85.7 to 2362.3, a decline of 3.5% [4] Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 11.7 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1%. The daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports increased by 13.5 to 337.3, a rise of 4.2% [4] Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 45.1 to 13804.41, a decline of 0.3%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 53.2 to 8993.1, a rise of 0.6% [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - Coke futures contracts 01 and 05 increased by 2.8% and 2.5% respectively. The coking profit (weekly) decreased by 11 [6] Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - Coking coal futures contracts 01 and 05 increased by 4.5% and 3.5% respectively. The sample coal mine profit (weekly) decreased by 12, a decline of 2.9% [6] Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.4 to 66.8, a rise of 3.8%. The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines increased by 43.8 to 861.1, a rise of 5.4% [6] Demand - The iron water output of 247 steel mills increased by 11.8 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1%. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.4 to 66.8, a rise of 3.8% [6] Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased by 11.0 to 906.2, a rise of 1.2%. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.0 to 793.7, a decline of 0.3% [6] Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The calculated coke supply - demand gap decreased by 2.4 to - 3.1, a decline of 75.4% [6]
铁矿石:发运大增港存疏港回升 铁矿跟随钢材价格波动
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-19 02:16
Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing fluctuations in prices and demand, with a notable increase in global shipments and a slight rise in port inventories, while steel mill profits remain high, influencing raw material support [7]. Spot Market - As of August 18, the spot prices for mainstream iron ore fines are: Rizhao Port PB fines at 770.0 CNY/ton and lump ore at 875.0 CNY/ton [1]. Futures Market - The iron ore near-month 2509 contract closed at 790.0 CNY/ton, down 2.0 CNY (-0.25%), while the main contract 2601 closed at 772.0 CNY, down 4.0 CNY (-0.52%) [2]. Basis - The optimal delivery products are lump ore. The costs for lump ore, PB fines, blended fines, and Jinbuba warehouse receipts are 794.5 CNY/ton, 816.2 CNY/ton, 830.9 CNY/ton, and 828.4 CNY/ton respectively. The basis for the 09 contract for lump ore, PB fines, blended fines, and Jinbuba are 22.5 CNY/ton, 44.2 CNY/ton, 58.9 CNY/ton, and 56.4 CNY/ton respectively [3]. Demand - The average daily pig iron production is 2.4066 million tons, up by 0.34 million tons month-on-month; the blast furnace operating rate is 83.59%, down by 0.16%; the capacity utilization rate for blast furnace ironmaking is 90.22%, up by 0.13%; and the profit margin for steel mills is 65.80%, down by 2.60% [4]. Supply - Global shipments have increased, while the arrival volume at ports has decreased. Global shipments totaled 34.066 million tons, up by 3.599 million tons month-on-month. The arrival volume at 45 ports is 23.819 million tons, down by 1.259 million tons. The national monthly import volume is 105.948 million tons, up by 7.82 million tons month-on-month [5]. Inventory - Port inventories have slightly increased, with the average daily dispatch volume rising month-on-month. The inventory at 45 ports is 138.564 million tons, up by 371,300 tons; the average daily dispatch volume is 3.3467 million tons, up by 128,200 tons; and the steel mills' imported ore inventory is 91.3634 million tons, up by 1.23 million tons [6]. Market Outlook - The iron ore 2601 contract has shown a downward trend. The increase in global shipments and the decrease in port arrivals suggest a potential recovery in future arrivals. Despite a slight decline in steel production, it remains at a relatively high level. The market is expected to see a slight decrease in iron water production in August due to production limits in Hebei, with an average expected to remain around 2.36 million tons per day. The strategy suggests a short position on rallies due to seasonal demand weakness [7].
《黑色》日报-20250721
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 04:56
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views Steel - The rise of ferrous metals since June was due to environmental inspections on coking coal leading to production cuts and a rebound in coking coal prices, along with resilient off - season demand for steel and low inventory levels. In July, the "anti - involution" trading improved market sentiment, and with marginal improvements in industry supply - demand and positive market sentiment, ferrous metals rose strongly. High - frequency data shows off - season demand resilience, high steel mill production, and raw material inventory de - stocking due to marginal supply decline. Later, a marginal increase in inventory would require coking coal production recovery or a decline in steel demand. Macroscopically, there is good sentiment for commodity buying under the expectation of supply - side contraction. The resistance levels for rebar and hot - rolled coils at around 3100 and 3270 yuan have been removed, and the next pressure levels are at 3250 and 3400 yuan [1] Iron Ore - Last week, the iron ore 09 contract rose strongly. Globally, the shipping volume decreased slightly, but arrivals at 45 ports increased slightly. Future arrivals are expected to decline slightly. On the demand side, after the lifting of production restrictions in Tangshan on July 15, iron - making water production rebounded significantly, and steel exports remained strong, providing support. Port inventory increased slightly, while steel mill equity ore inventory decreased rapidly. In the future, iron - making water production in July will remain high, and steel mill profits will support raw materials. With the expected introduction of a growth - stabilizing plan for ten key industries and positive sentiment from the "anti - involution" meeting, iron ore is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. The strategy is to go long on the iron ore 2509 contract on dips and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [4] Coke - Last week, coke futures fluctuated upwards, and the first round of spot price increases was implemented. After the fourth round of price cuts on June 23, the market expected an improvement, and mainstream coking enterprises initiated the first round of price increases, which were accepted by mainstream steel mills on the 17th. There is still an expectation of further price increases this week. On the supply side, some coal mines and coking plants resumed production after the inspection team left, but production was difficult to increase due to losses. On the demand side, iron - making water production increased after the end of environmental restrictions in Tangshan. In terms of inventory, coking plant and port inventories decreased, while steel mill inventories increased. Due to low prices, cost - push and steel mill restocking demand are favorable for future coke price increases. The strategy is to conduct hedging operations as the futures price is at a premium to the spot price, go long on the 09 contract on dips, and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [6] Coking Coal - Last week, coking coal futures fluctuated upwards, and the spot market generally rebounded. Domestic coking coal auctions improved, and most coal mines saw better sales. Although coal mines resumed production after the inspection team left, overall production recovery was slow due to strong sales. Imported coking coal prices rebounded slightly, and port transactions improved. On the demand side, coking plant operations increased slightly, and iron - making water production rebounded rapidly after the lifting of restrictions in Tangshan. Steel mills and coking plants increased their restocking efforts. In terms of inventory, coal mine inventory decreased from a high level, port inventory increased, and downstream inventory increased from a low level. The strategy is to conduct hedging operations, go long on the 09 contract on dips, and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase. For example, rebar spot in East China rose from 3200 to 3220 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil spot in East China rose from 3290 to 3320 yuan/ton [1] Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices increased by 10 yuan/ton to 2960 yuan/ton, while plate billet prices remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. Profits for hot - rolled coils and rebar in different regions showed declines, such as a 41 - yuan decline in East China rebar profit [1] Production and Inventory - Daily average iron - making water production increased by 2.6 to 242.6, a 1.1% increase. The production of five major steel products decreased by 4.5 to 868.2, a 0.5% decrease. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 1.9 to 1337.7, a 0.1% decrease [1] Demand - The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 15.3 to 206.2, a 6.9% decrease, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 1.3 to 323.8, a 0.4% increase [1] Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased, and the 09 - contract basis of different iron ore powders also showed significant increases. For example, the 09 - contract basis of PB powder increased from 25.2 to 34.5, a 36.9% increase [4] Supply and Demand - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 178.2 to 2662.1, a 7.2% increase, while the global shipping volume decreased by 7.8 to 2987.1, a 0.3% decrease. The daily average iron - making water production of 247 steel mills increased by 2.6 to 242.4, a 1.1% increase [4] Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 62.1 to 13785.21, a 0.5% increase, while the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 157.5 to 8822.2, a 1.8% decrease [4] Coke Prices and Spreads - Coke futures prices showed slight fluctuations, with the 09 contract at 1518 yuan/ton, a 0.14% decrease, and the 01 contract at 1559 yuan/ton, a 0.3% increase. The first round of spot price increases of 50/55 yuan/ton was implemented [6] Production and Inventory - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.1 to 64.2, a 0.2% increase, while the daily average production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 47.1, a 0.2% decrease. The total coke inventory decreased by 5.3 to 925.7, a 0.64% decrease [6] Supply and Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap decreased by 1.2 to - 6.1, a 20.4% decrease [6] Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - Coking coal futures prices increased, with the 09 contract rising by 8 to 926, a 0.8% increase, and the 01 contract rising by 8 to 976, a 0.84% increase. Spot prices generally increased [6] Production and Inventory - The raw coal production of sample coal mines decreased by 1.6 to 866.6, a 0.2% decrease, and the clean coal production decreased by 1.1 to 442.4, a 0.2% decrease. The inventory of clean coal in Fenwei coal mines decreased by 18.3 to 158.1, a 10.3% decrease [6]
广发期货《黑色》日报-20250716
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-16 03:27
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core Viewpoints - For iron ore, the 09 contract showed a volatile upward trend yesterday. The global iron ore shipment volume decreased last week, but the arrival volume at 47 ports increased. The subsequent average arrival volume is expected to decline. The iron - water production decreased due to steel mill maintenance and Tangshan's production restrictions. Although the terminal demand may weaken in the off - season, the strong steel export provides some support. In July, the iron - water production will continue to decline, and the steel mill profit will improve. The short - term iron ore is expected to be volatile and strong. It is recommended to go long on the iron ore 2509 contract on dips and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [1] - For coke, the futures showed a volatile downward trend yesterday, while the spot price was stable with a slight upward bias. After the fourth round of price cuts on June 23, the market bottomed out, and mainstream coking enterprises plan to initiate the first - round price increase. The supply is expected to increase as some coal mines resume production, but the production is difficult to boost due to losses. The demand may decline as Tangshan conducts environmental protection production restrictions, and the iron - water production is expected to be around 238 tons per day in July. The inventory is at a medium level, and it is recommended to conduct hedging on the coke 2601 contract on rallies, go long on the coke 2509 contract on dips, and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [2] - For coking coal, the futures showed a volatile downward trend yesterday, and the spot price was stable with a slight increase. The domestic coking coal auction market recovered, and the overall spot market is in a bottom - rebound trend. The supply is expected to increase but the overall production recovery is slow, and the supply is still in short supply. The demand decreased as the coking and blast furnace operations declined slightly. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2509 contract on dips and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore Price and Spread - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased slightly, with the increase ranging from 0.1% to 0.6%. The 09 - contract basis of most powders increased, with the 09 - contract basis of Carajás fines rising by 234.0%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 1.0%, the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5.0%, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 5.3% [1] - The spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port increased slightly, with the increase ranging from 0.1% to 0.5%. The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Platts 62% Fe index also increased slightly [1] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) increased by 7.2% to 2662.1 million tons, while the global shipment volume (weekly) decreased by 0.3% to 2987.1 million tons. The national monthly import volume decreased by 4.9% to 9813.1 million tons [1] Demand - The average daily iron - water production of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 0.4% to 239.8 million tons, the 45 - port average daily dredging volume (weekly) increased by 0.1% to 319.5 million tons. The national monthly pig iron and crude steel production decreased by 3.0% and 3.9% respectively [1] Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 0.3% to 13723.11 million tons, the 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory increased by 0.7% to 8979.6 million tons, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 5.3% to 20.0 days [1] Coke Price and Spread - The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The coke 09 and 01 contracts decreased by 0.74% and 0.54% respectively. The 09 and 01 basis increased, and the J09 - J01 spread decreased. The steel - union coking profit (weekly) decreased by 11 [2] Supply - The average daily production of all - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4% and 0.6% respectively [2] Demand - The iron - water production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4% [2] Inventory - The total coke inventory increased slightly by 0.0%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 8.84%, while the inventory of 247 steel mills and port inventory increased [2] Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap remained unchanged at - 4.8 million tons [2] Coking Coal Price and Spread - The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) remained unchanged, while the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) increased by 0.6%. The coking coal 09 and 01 contracts decreased by 0.9% and 0.2% respectively. The 09 and 01 basis increased, and the JM09 - JM01 spread decreased. The sample coal mine profit (weekly) decreased by 2 [2] Supply - The raw coal and clean coal production of sample coal mines increased by 0.34% and 0.3% respectively [2] Demand - The average daily production of all - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4% and 0.6% respectively [2] Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 7.5%, while the inventory of all - sample coking plants, port inventory increased, and the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased slightly [2]
铁矿石:铁水高位回落 关注终端需求边际变化
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-06-04 02:40
Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing a decline in demand and prices, influenced by seasonal factors and supply increases, with expectations of price fluctuations within the range of 700-745 RMB per ton [6]. Supply - Global iron ore shipments have increased by 242.3 million tons to 34.31 million tons this week, with Australian and Brazilian shipments showing mixed trends [4]. - Australian shipments totaled 19.205 million tons, a decrease of 0.927 million tons, while shipments to China fell by 2.814 million tons to 14.998 million tons [4]. - Brazilian shipments rose by 1.715 million tons to 9.483 million tons, indicating a recovery in some ports [4]. Demand - Daily molten iron production averaged 2.4191 million tons, a decrease of 16,900 tons from the previous period [3]. - The blast furnace operating rate is at 83.87%, up by 0.18%, while the capacity utilization rate is at 90.69%, down by 0.64 percentage points [3]. - Steel mill profitability stands at 58.87%, a slight decrease of 0.87 percentage points [3]. Inventory - As of May 29, total inventory at 45 ports is 138.6658 million tons, down by 1.2125 million tons [5]. - Steel mills' imported ore inventory decreased by 1.7115 million tons to 87.5433 million tons, with a slight decline in daily consumption [5]. Market Outlook - The iron ore market is facing downward pressure due to high inventory levels and increased supply, while demand remains resilient despite seasonal weaknesses [6]. - The expectation is for limited declines in molten iron production, with a focus on changes in production levels [6]. - The upcoming peak in shipments from overseas mines may lead to increased supply pressure in the market [6].
铁矿石:铁水高位回落 港口小幅下滑
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-05-20 02:05
Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing fluctuations with increased global shipments and a slight decline in domestic port arrivals, indicating a potential increase in supply pressure in the near future [6]. Supply - Global shipments of iron ore increased by 3.188 million tons to 33.478 million tons this week, with Australia and Brazil contributing significantly [4]. - Australian shipments totaled 18.278 million tons, a rise of 0.305 million tons, while shipments to China decreased by 0.149 million tons [4]. - Brazilian shipments increased by 2.531 million tons to 8.783 million tons [4]. Demand - The average daily pig iron production is 2.4477 million tons, showing a slight decrease of 0.0087 million tons [3]. - The blast furnace operating rate is at 84.15%, down by 0.47% [3]. - The profitability rate of steel mills is 59.31%, reflecting an increase of 0.45% [3]. Inventory - As of May 15, the inventory at 45 ports is 141.6609 million tons, a decrease of 0.7262 million tons [5]. - Steel mills' imported ore inventory increased by 2.18 million tons to 89.6116 million tons, while daily consumption slightly decreased [5]. Market Outlook - The iron ore futures contract is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, with supply pressures anticipated due to increased shipments from overseas mines in May and June [6]. - The resilience in demand for finished steel products, particularly hot-rolled and rebar, is expected to continue, while cold-rolled products face more pressure [6]. - The overall market sentiment may improve due to macroeconomic expectations, influencing the iron ore market dynamics [6].
铁矿石:高炉检修量增加 铁水或见顶回落
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-05-14 02:02
Market Overview - The mainstream spot prices for iron ore are reported as follows: PB powder at 765 CNY/ton and Brazilian mixed powder at 776 CNY/ton [1] - The main iron ore futures contract increased by 1.06% (+7.5) to close at 714.5 CNY/ton [1] Basis and Costs - The optimal delivery product is Brazilian mixed powder, with warehouse costs for PB powder and Brazilian mixed powder at 810 CNY and 795 CNY respectively. The basis for the 09 contract PB powder is 96 CNY/ton [2] Demand Metrics - Daily average pig iron production is 2.4564 million tons, with a slight increase of 0.22 million tons; the blast furnace operating rate is 84.62%, up by 0.29%; the capacity utilization rate for blast furnace ironmaking is 92.09%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points; and the steel mill profit margin is 58.87%, up by 2.59 percentage points [3] Supply Dynamics - Global shipments have slightly rebounded this week, with a decrease of 21.5 million tons to 30.29 million tons. Shipments from Australia and Brazil totaled 24.225 million tons, down by 1.18 million tons. Australian shipments were 17.972 million tons, up by 0.28 million tons, with 15.938 million tons sent to China, an increase of 0.755 million tons. Brazilian shipments were 6.252 million tons, down by 1.46 million tons. The arrival volume at 45 ports was 23.546 million tons, down by 0.951 million tons [4] Inventory Levels - As of May 8, the inventory at 45 ports stands at 142.387 million tons, a decrease of 0.6377 million tons; steel mills have slightly resumed production, and the profit margin for steel mills has improved. The imported ore inventory at steel mills decreased by 3.7607 million tons to 89.5898 million tons, as inventory was consumed during the holiday period [5] Market Sentiment and Outlook - The iron ore 09 contract experienced a spike and subsequent pullback, with night trading accelerating upward. The average daily pig iron production has slightly increased week-on-week, maintaining a high level. SMM reports an increase in maintenance at steel mills, with a rise in maintenance for construction materials and hot-rolled coils, suggesting a potential peak in pig iron production. Inventory levels have decreased to a yearly low, with port inventories slightly declining. The outlook for the market indicates that terminal demand for finished steel will determine the sustainability of high pig iron production levels, with marginal changes influenced by exports and infrastructure projects. Current data shows unexpected high exports of steel billets, and SMM's high-frequency steel export data has surged. However, the supply-demand pressure for iron ore is expected to increase in the coming months due to a surge in overseas mine shipments, while macroeconomic sentiment may provide short-term support. The short-term valuation of iron ore is expected to recover, but a bearish outlook is maintained for the medium to long term [6]
铁矿石:铁水维持高位 港口延续累库
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-05-07 02:10
Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing fluctuations in prices and inventory levels, with a focus on supply-demand dynamics and the impact of production cuts on future pricing trends [6]. Supply - Global iron ore shipments decreased by 1.37 million tons to 30.505 million tons, with Australian and Brazilian shipments totaling 25.404 million tons, down by 2.179 million tons [4]. - Australian shipments were 17.692 million tons, a decrease of 2.26 million tons, with shipments to China at 15.184 million tons, down by 1.289 million tons [4]. - Brazilian shipments increased by 0.08 million tons to 7.712 million tons [4]. Demand - Daily average pig iron production reached 2.4542 million tons, an increase of 10,700 tons month-on-month [3]. - The blast furnace operating rate was 84.33%, unchanged from the previous period [3]. - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnace ironmaking was 92%, up by 0.4 percentage points [3]. - Steel mill profit margins were 56.28%, down by 1.3 percentage points [3]. Inventory - As of April 30, total inventory at 45 ports was 1,430.248 million tons, an increase of 414,800 tons [5]. - Steel mills' imported ore inventory rose by 2.6202 million tons to 93.3505 million tons, indicating significant pre-holiday stockpiling [5]. Market Outlook - The iron ore market is under pressure due to administrative production cuts, with uncertainty regarding the extent and form of these cuts [6]. - The average daily iron production continues to rise, reaching historical highs, while downstream material inventory is being reduced [6]. - The future of iron ore prices will depend on terminal demand, with potential pressure from increased overseas shipments expected in May and June [6].
铁矿石:铁水大幅增长 限产消息扰动
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-04-29 02:11
Market Overview - The mainstream spot prices for iron ore are reported as follows: PB powder at 764 CNY/ton (+3), and Brazilian mixed powder at 778 CNY/ton (+6) [1] - The main iron ore futures contract closed at 710.5 CNY/ton, up 0.21% (+1.5) [1] Basis and Costs - The optimal delivery product is Brazilian mixed powder. The warehouse costs for PB powder and Brazilian mixed powder are 809 CNY and 797 CNY, respectively. The basis for the May contract for PB powder is approximately 46.6 CNY/ton [2] Demand Dynamics - The average daily pig iron production is 2.4435 million tons, an increase of 42,300 tons month-on-month. The blast furnace operating rate is 84.33%, up 0.77% from the previous month. The capacity utilization rate for blast furnace ironmaking is 91.60%, an increase of 1.45 percentage points. The profit margin for steel mills is 57.58%, up 2.60 percentage points [3] Supply Situation - Global shipments have slightly increased this week, with a total of 31.882 million tons shipped, up 2.627 million tons. Shipments from Australia and Brazil totaled 27.584 million tons, an increase of 3.206 million tons. Australia shipped 19.952 million tons, up 1.960 million tons, with 16.472 million tons going to China, an increase of 729,000 tons. Brazil's shipments were 7.632 million tons, up 1.246 million tons. The total port arrivals were 25.128 million tons, an increase of 1.875 million tons [4] Inventory Levels - As of April 24, the inventory at 45 ports is 142.61 million tons, an increase of 2.05 million tons. The iron ore arrivals at ports have rebounded, and the unloading efficiency has improved, leading to an increase in port inventory. The number of ships waiting at ports remains high. The steel mills' imported ore inventory has increased by 20.11% to 90.7303 million tons, with daily consumption slightly rising as mills maintain a low inventory strategy [5] Market Outlook - The iron ore 09 contract experienced fluctuations, influenced by production restriction news, indicating that iron ore prices will remain under pressure in the near term. The specifics of the production restrictions are yet to be determined. The significant increase in daily pig iron production to 2.44 million tons is attributed to the recovery of steel mill profits and the resumption of high furnace operations. The sustainability of this high production level will depend on terminal demand. The market for finished steel continues to deplete inventory, with rebar and wire rod showing a pullback after a surge, while hot-rolled steel remains stable and cold-rolled steel shows slight recovery. On the supply side, global iron ore shipments have increased slightly, while port arrivals have significantly decreased. The recovery in unloading efficiency has led to an increase in port inventory, with high levels of ships waiting. Looking ahead, the sustainability of high pig iron production will depend on terminal demand, with marginal changes expected in exports and infrastructure. A decline in exports is likely, and domestic demand will be crucial. The current high pig iron production coupled with inventory accumulation and increased overseas shipments expected in May and June suggests that supply and demand pressures will intensify, leading to continued downward pressure on iron ore prices [6]