2024 年公司人身险（寿险和健康险）NBV 可比口径下同比增长127%，其中代理人/银保渠道分别同比 +86%/223%。2024 年新单保费小幅下滑1%，NBV 增长由利润率提升驱动。2024 年预定利率再次下 调、"报行合一"挤压渠道费用，带动假设调整前的NBV 利润率（新单保费基准）改善至18%（前值 8%）。合同服务边际CSM/EV 分别同比大幅提升22%/21%，增长强劲。公司下调长期投资收益率至 4.0%（前值：分红万能4.75%/传统险4.5%），下调贴现率至8.5%（前值：9%），假设调整导致NBV 下 降约22%。考虑到公司NBV 利润率有望提升，我们预计公司2025 年NBV 增长17%。 财产险：综合成本率上升 公司公布2024 年业绩：2024 EPS RMB0.95 同比提升90%，主要因投资业绩高增，符合公司此前业绩预 告（同比增长75%-95%）。公司人身险NBV可比口径下同比提升127%，增长强劲。财险业务综合成本 率同比上升1pct至98.8%，主要受自然灾害因素影响。24 年人身险利润贡献增长至40%（23年6%），预 计25 年仍处于较高水平并对利润形成支撑，上调A 股 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Pacific Insurance (601601) [2][8] Core Views - The company's new business value (NBV) grew by 57.7% year-on-year, significantly exceeding expectations, while the agent scale has stabilized [6][8] - The company adjusted its long-term investment return assumptions down by 50 basis points to 4.0%, and the risk discount rate by 50 basis points to 8.5% [6] - The expected net profit for 2024 is projected at 44.96 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 64.9% [5][10] Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 44.96 billion yuan and an operating profit of 34.43 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 64.9% and 2.5% respectively [5][10] - The company's total revenue for 2024 is expected to be 404.09 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.7% [10][12] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be 4.67 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 64.9% [10][12] Investment Performance - The company's investment income for 2024 is expected to reach 26.91 billion yuan, with a significant increase driven by the rebound in equity markets [8][12] - The total investment assets increased by 21.5% year-on-year to 27.3 trillion yuan, with equity assets contributing significantly [8] Market Data - As of March 27, 2025, the closing price of the stock is 32.20 yuan, with a market capitalization of 220.41 billion yuan [2][10] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2024 is projected at 6.89, indicating a favorable valuation [10][12]