2026 保险投资四问四答 20260105 摘要 预计到期理财产品规模达 25 万亿，为保险业保费增长提供空间，近期 "开门红"数据亦显示各公司业绩良好，预示行业增长潜力。 尽管保险行业利润面临压力，但历史数据显示，利润增速下降年份行业 市值仍保持稳定或提升，资产端预期和投资收益率变化是更重要的估值 驱动因素。 短期内，基于"存款搬家"逻辑，预测 2026 年人身险规模可达 4.8 万 亿，同比增长 10%；中长期看，储蓄型和保障型产品需求均能支撑行业 增长，养老储备不足构成长期增长动力。 监管要求新增保费 30%投资 A 股，预计 2026 年人身险经营性净现金流 约 4.8 万亿，对应 3,000 亿至 7,600 亿增量资金入市，中长期增配权益 资产趋势确定。 险资配置偏好长期稳定收益的配置性权益类资产，如价值股、周期底部 股，以应对久期缺口和低利率环境下的投资需求。 保险公司盈利能力取决于投资收益率与负债成本率之差，负债成本改善 趋势明确，市场对利差走阔持乐观态度，推动中长期估值修复至一倍水 平。 当前保险板块估值距离一倍 PV 仍有较大空间，建议继续推荐保险板块， 并建议仓位大于个股选择，表明行业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11, 2025, in Beijing, outlined key tasks for 2026, emphasizing the importance of expanding domestic demand, innovation-driven growth, social welfare, and risk prevention [1][15]. Group 1: Implementation of Conference Spirit - China People's Insurance Group promptly conveyed and implemented the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference and the national financial system work conference [1][15]. - Subsidiary party committees held special meetings to focus on key tasks such as expanding domestic demand, innovation-driven growth, social welfare, and risk prevention [1][15]. Group 2: Strategic Focus Areas - The company aims to enhance its core functions and strengthen its main responsibilities to serve the overall governance of the Party and the modernization of China [2][16]. - Key focus areas include supporting domestic demand, fostering innovation, enhancing economic vitality, promoting cooperation in various fields, and ensuring social stability [2][16]. Group 3: Financial and Insurance Services - The company is committed to expanding the supply of quality life insurance products and supporting new employment forms through commercial insurance [3][17]. - There is a focus on innovation in technology insurance services and supporting rural revitalization strategies [3][17]. Group 4: Investment and Risk Management - The company emphasizes the integration of investment in physical assets and human capital, aligning investment management with broader economic and social development goals [4][18]. - A robust risk management framework is being developed to ensure the safety and stability of operations while addressing market and compliance risks [9][23]. Group 5: Digital Transformation and Innovation - The company is advancing digital transformation and exploring the application of artificial intelligence to enhance operational efficiency and service levels [25][26]. - There is a commitment to developing innovative financial products and services that meet diverse market needs [21][24]. Group 6: Regional and International Engagement - The company aims to play a significant role in the development of Hong Kong as an international financial center and to support local enterprises and infrastructure projects [14][27]. - Efforts are being made to enhance cross-border resource integration and contribute to the development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [14][27].

Core Viewpoint - The trend of phasing out five-year deposits indicates the end of an era where banks relied on high-interest, long-term deposits for easy profits, signaling a shift in the banking landscape [1]. Group 1: Historical Context of Five-Year Deposits - Five-year deposits have been a staple since the establishment of the banking system in New China [2]. - In the early 1990s, five-year deposit rates peaked at 13.9%, allowing significant interest earnings [3][4]. - The economic environment during that time was characterized by high growth and inflation, leading to a strong demand for bank loans [6][7]. Group 2: Current Banking Environment - The current financial landscape has shifted to an "asset shortage" era, where there is an abundance of money but a scarcity of viable investment opportunities [11]. - Banks are facing dual challenges: declining interest rates and a decrease in loan demand from both individuals and businesses [13]. - The low-interest environment is expected to persist, affecting the viability of long-term, high-yield deposit products [14]. Group 3: Changes in Investment Products - The availability of safe investment options like deposits, government bonds, and insurance products is diminishing, with yields decreasing significantly [21][23]. - Trust products, once favored by wealthy individuals, are facing a crisis due to defaults linked to the real estate sector [25]. - Bank wealth management products have transitioned to a net value model, requiring investors to accept the risk of potential losses [27]. Group 4: Global Comparisons and Strategies - In mature markets, the trend is towards shorter deposit terms, with banks encouraging shorter-term savings [17][18]. - The U.S. and Japan have seen their citizens adapt to low-interest environments by shifting investments towards equities and other assets [35][46]. - Japanese citizens have historically maintained a high proportion of savings in deposits, but this has limited their investment opportunities [46]. Group 5: Future Investment Strategies - With the end of the "no-risk, high-yield" era, investors must either accept higher risks or find alternative ways to secure current interest rates [32][33]. - Strategies from other countries, such as embracing equity investments or utilizing savings insurance to lock in rates, may offer insights for domestic investors [35][45]. - The current environment suggests that long-term savings insurance products may still provide reasonable returns, but investors should be cautious about liquidity needs [56][58].

Core Insights - In 2024, Yunnan Province's insurance industry is projected to achieve original insurance premium income of 87.05 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.5% [1][2] Premium Income Breakdown - Property insurance original premium income is expected to be 29.74 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.0% [1][2] - Life insurance original premium income is anticipated to reach 57.31 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 20.8% [1][2] Claims and Dispute Resolution - The total original insurance claims expenditure for 2024 is projected to be 36.64 billion yuan, with property insurance claims at 18.13 billion yuan and life insurance payouts at 18.51 billion yuan [1][2] - There were 29,394 dispute resolutions, involving an amount of 980 million yuan [1][2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates a decline in the premium scale of life insurance companies in October, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%, attributed to a shift in focus towards preparations for the 2026 "opening red" campaign [1][2] - For the period from January to October 2025, the original premium of life insurance reached 42,519 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, while the total premium was 48,010 billion yuan, up 8.8% year-on-year [1] - The report highlights that the market demand remains strong, with the expected growth in new single premiums due to the attractiveness of insurance products compared to bank deposits [2][5] Group 2 - In October, the health insurance premium showed a slight year-on-year increase of 0.5%, although the growth rate decreased by 2.8 percentage points compared to September [3] - The health insurance sector's share reached 21% by the end of October, up 0.4 percentage points from the end of September, indicating a positive trend in the market [3] - The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission's recent guidelines are expected to stimulate growth in the health insurance market by supporting various product developments [3] Group 3 - The property insurance sector experienced a year-on-year decline of 5.5% in October, with both auto and non-auto insurance premiums decreasing [4] - The auto insurance premium growth turned negative in October, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%, influenced by a high base from the previous year [4] - Non-auto insurance premiums also saw a decline, with a year-on-year drop of 3.4% in October, reflecting pressures from regulatory changes and market conditions [4] Group 4 - The report notes improvements in both the liability and asset sides of the insurance companies, with significant upward potential in valuations [5] - The anticipated optimization of liability costs due to a shift in product offerings and a potential recovery in long-term interest rates could alleviate pressure on investment returns [5] - The insurance sector is currently undervalued, with estimated valuations for 2025 ranging from 0.55 to 0.94 times PEV and 1.07 to 2.00 times PB, indicating a historical low [5]

Core Insights - China Post Group has re-entered the insurance intermediary market by obtaining approval from the National Financial Regulatory Administration to operate insurance agency business, covering common property and personal insurance types [1][6] - The move comes amid a significant reduction in the number of insurance intermediaries, with China Post leveraging its extensive network of over 50,000 outlets to fill market gaps and tap into underdeveloped markets [1][7] - The reactivation of insurance agency operations is seen as a strategic response to the ongoing reshaping of the insurance intermediary sector, aiming to enhance competitive advantages in rural and county areas [1][7] Summary by Sections Insurance Agency License - China Post has received approval to operate as an insurance agent, marking its return to the insurance intermediary market after a two-year hiatus [1] - The approval follows similar licenses granted to other companies, indicating a potential shift in the regulatory landscape [1] Market Context - The insurance intermediary market has faced intense competition, leading to a significant decrease in the number of intermediaries [7] - China Post previously divested its insurance intermediary stakes, but is now re-entering the market to capitalize on the current reshaping of the industry [6][7] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Postal Savings Bank reported commission expenses of 4.15 billion yuan to China Post, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.82% [3] - However, the commission received by China Post from Postal Savings Bank has decreased by over 60% compared to the same period in 2023 [3] Strategic Implications - Analysts suggest that China Post's re-entry into the insurance agency business is driven by compliance needs, resource integration, and strategic positioning to capture market opportunities during a period of industry consolidation [7] - The extensive network of China Post is expected to provide a competitive edge in reaching underserved markets, aligning with national financial inclusion goals [7][8] Network Advantage - As of the end of 2024, China Post operates 54,500 outlets, significantly outnumbering other major banks, which positions it favorably in the insurance market [8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent issuance of the "Guidelines for Cost Allocation of Life Insurance Products" and the "Notice on Strengthening Regulation of Non-Motor Insurance Business" signifies a comprehensive deepening of the "reporting and execution" (报行合一) policy across all insurance sectors in China, transitioning from regulatory norms to operational practices [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The "reporting and execution" policy requires insurance companies to strictly adhere to approved insurance terms and rates, ensuring consistency between reported content and actual operations [2]. - The introduction of the "Guidelines" aims to clarify the scientific and reasonable allocation of costs in life insurance product pricing, marking a significant management revolution that compels companies to establish transparent and traceable cost accounting systems [2][3]. - The successful implementation of "reporting and execution" in the motor insurance sector has led to a decrease in the comprehensive expense ratio to 23.8% by the end of 2024, a 4.1% year-on-year decline, indicating improved market order and reduced vicious competition [3]. Group 2: Market Impact - The average commission rate in the bank insurance channel has decreased by 30%, reflecting the positive effects of the new policies in the life insurance sector [3]. - The upcoming implementation of the "Notice" on November 1 is expected to further regulate the complex and competitive non-motor insurance market, guiding the industry towards quality-oriented development [3][4]. - The comprehensive deepening of "reporting and execution" is anticipated to reshape the market ecosystem, enhancing competition based on product quality, service, risk control, and brand value [4]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - While the transition may cause short-term challenges for smaller companies reliant on high-cost models, this is viewed as a necessary process for the industry's evolution [4]. - The long-term benefits of "reporting and execution" include empowering companies to shift from sales-driven to product and service-driven models, improving core capabilities in risk pricing, cost control, and technology application [4]. - The initiative is expected to protect consumer rights by ensuring more transparent pricing and rigid service commitments, allowing consumers to obtain better insurance coverage at reasonable prices [4].

Core Insights - The Shenzhen insurance industry has accumulated a liability reserve balance of 758.1 billion yuan for life and long-term health insurance as of October 2025, with total compensation payments amounting to 61.7 billion yuan [1] - The industry has effectively responded to multiple rounds of typhoon and rainstorm disasters, receiving over 5,700 related claims with estimated losses exceeding 11 million yuan [1] - The innovation of pension financial products is progressing steadily, with 5.993 million personal pension accounts opened and total contributions reaching 7.72 billion yuan, ranking among the top in the country [1] - Four commercial pension pilot companies are operating in Shenzhen, with a total of 127,500 commercial pension accounts opened and a sales scale of 20.885 billion yuan in the first three quarters [1]

Core Viewpoint - Minsheng Securities maintains a "recommended" rating for Sunshine Insurance (06963), projecting total operating revenue and net profit growth from 2025 to 2027, with a focus on stable growth in life insurance and optimization in property insurance [1] Group 1: Life Insurance - Sunshine Life achieved total operating revenue of 33.05 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.0%, with net profit at 5.25 billion yuan, up 3.4% [1] - Insurance service revenue was 12.91 billion yuan, growing by 4.3%, while investment income reached approximately 18.23 billion yuan, a significant increase of 24.7% [1] - The company reported an investment return rate of 1.41% and maintained a core solvency ratio of 133.5% and a comprehensive solvency ratio of 194.0% as of the end of September [1] Group 2: Property Insurance - Sunshine Property achieved total operating revenue of 38.89 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.5%, with net profit soaring by 81.9% to 1.66 billion yuan [2] - Insurance service revenue was 36.09 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.4%, while investment income was approximately 2.54 billion yuan, up 45.0% [2] - The significant rise in net profit was attributed to improved investment returns and a decrease in natural disasters compared to the previous year, leading to a reduction in the comprehensive cost ratio [2] Group 3: Investment Performance - The combined investment income from Sunshine Life and Property for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 20.76 billion yuan, an increase of 26.8% year-on-year [3] - As of the first half of 2025, the proportion of FVTPL stocks in Sunshine Insurance's stock assets was 29.1%, while FVOCI stocks accounted for 70.9%, significantly higher than peers [3] - The company’s strategy of classifying a large portion of stocks as FVOCI resulted in unrealized gains not fully reflected in net profit, as only dividends are counted as current investment income [3]

Core Insights - The release of the "2025 Experience Life Table" marks a significant update in the actuarial foundation of the life insurance industry in China, set to be implemented from January 1, 2026, which will lead to more scientific pricing, fairer protection, and diverse products in the life insurance sector [1][3][4] Data Iteration - The new life table is based on nearly a decade of comprehensive policy data, creating four core tables that cover various insurance risks, reflecting the survival and mortality probabilities of the insured population [2][3] Key Features of the New Life Table - Compared to the first life table released in 1996, the new table shows a 10-year increase in life expectancy, significant improvements in child mortality rates, and a notable decrease in mortality rates in economically underdeveloped regions [3] - The introduction of a single life table allows for cross-company and cross-insurance type analysis, enhancing comparability with population mortality rates [3] Value of the New Life Table - The new life table enables more precise risk pricing, enhances transparency in actuarial regulation, and improves the alignment of insurance products with actual life expectancy and health conditions, thereby supporting sustainable long-term insurance supply [4] Impact on Pricing and Risk Management - The implementation of the new life table will lead to a more refined pricing structure based on risk categories, potentially lowering rates for healthier demographics while increasing rates for long-term and pension products due to extended life expectancy [6] - Insurance companies are expected to enhance their risk management and product pricing accuracy, reducing operational risks associated with mortality discrepancies [6][7] Industry Transformation - The new life table will drive the insurance industry towards a more data-driven approach, requiring companies to improve their data collection, research, and product pricing capabilities [7][8] - Companies must establish high-quality mortality monitoring databases and ensure transparency in their pricing assumptions and adjustments, necessitating a collaborative governance mechanism across departments [8]