Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Pacific Insurance (02328) [2] Core Views - The underwriting performance is strong, with a significant increase in underwriting profit by 44.6% year-on-year [5] - The company’s net profit for the first half of 2025 increased by 32.3% year-on-year to CNY 24.455 billion, with a second quarter net profit growth of 4.1% year-on-year to CNY 13.143 billion [5] - The combined ratio (COR) improved by 1.4 percentage points year-on-year to 94.8%, aligning with expectations [5] - The company has increased its stock allocation by 2 percentage points since the beginning of the year, indicating a positive shift in investment strategy [5] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company’s total investment assets reached CNY 711.48 billion, a 5.2% increase from the end of 2024 [5] - The report projects net profits for 2025-2027 to be CNY 36.852 billion, CNY 40.899 billion, and CNY 47.124 billion respectively, up from previous forecasts [6] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is CNY 1.66, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.25 [7] Business Segments - In the auto insurance segment, premium income increased by 3.4% year-on-year to CNY 144.065 billion, with underwriting profit rising by 67.7% year-on-year to CNY 8.726 billion [8] - The non-auto insurance segment also saw growth, with premium income up by 3.8% year-on-year to CNY 179.217 billion, and underwriting profit increasing by 13.0% year-on-year to CNY 4.289 billion [8]

Group 1: Core Insights - The insurance industry is expected to see a gradual alleviation of interest spread loss risks due to continuous improvement in the liability side and strong market savings demand [1] - The ten-year government bond yield has recently dropped to approximately 1.63%, and with the anticipated domestic economic recovery, the pressure on new fixed-income investment returns for insurance companies is expected to ease [1] - The valuation of the insurance sector remains low, with projected 2025E PEV of 0.49-0.79 times and PB of 0.88-1.95 times, indicating a historical low and maintaining an "overweight" rating for the industry [1] Group 2: Q1 2025 Operational Review - Net profit and net asset growth for listed insurance companies experienced short-term fluctuations due to rising interest rates and falling bond markets, with significant differentiation among companies based on their reserve discount rates and VFA model measurement bases [2] - New business structure has improved significantly, with a rapid growth in NBV driven by factors such as reduced preset interest rates and optimized business structures, despite a slight short-term pressure on new single premiums [2] - The agent workforce remains stable, and the contribution of bank insurance channels to NBV is expected to continue increasing as companies' reform efforts yield results [2] Group 3: Property Insurance Insights - The combined ratio for property insurance has significantly improved year-on-year, primarily due to reduced disaster claims, cost-cutting measures, and the clearing of high-risk businesses [3] - Investment returns have faced slight pressure due to rising interest rates and falling bond markets, but improvements in bond-related investment losses are expected from Q2 onwards [3] Group 4: Product Evolution and Future Outlook - The insurance industry has evolved from single protection products to diversified offerings, with significant opportunities in health and long-term care insurance [4] - Learning from overseas markets, there are opportunities for both savings and protection products tailored to local conditions, with a focus on long-term value and investment [4] - The industry is optimistic about the innovative development of health insurance, with dividend insurance being a preferred choice for balancing premium growth and alleviating interest spread loss pressures [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Pacific Insurance (601601) [2][8] Core Views - The company's new business value (NBV) increased by 39% year-on-year, while investment performance faced temporary pressure [1][8] - The report highlights the company's strong growth in new single premium insurance and the significant increase in the proportion of dividend insurance new business [6][8] - The report anticipates sustainable growth in NBV and positive effects from product structure transformation under the policy of "promoting development" [8] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.627 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.1%, which was below expectations [5][8] - The NBV for Q1 2025 was 5.778 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.3% and a comparable growth of 39% [6][8] - The total investment yield faced temporary pressure, with total investment assets growing by 2.8% year-on-year to 2.81 trillion yuan [7][8] Business Segment Analysis - Individual insurance new single premium decreased by 15.2% year-on-year to 13.668 billion yuan, influenced by multiple factors including product structure optimization [9][8] - The bancassurance channel saw a significant increase, with new single premiums rising by 130.7% year-on-year to 20.114 billion yuan [9][8] - The property insurance segment experienced slow growth, with insurance service revenue increasing by 4.8% year-on-year to 47.741 billion yuan [6][8] Financial Projections - The report projects the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 to be 45.268 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.7% [9][8] - The estimated earnings per share for 2025 is 4.71 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.55 [9][8] - The report adjusts the profit forecast for 2025-2027 to 45.268 billion, 48.766 billion, and 56.148 billion yuan respectively [8][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company achieved a net profit of 42.869 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 88.2% [2] - The weighted average ROE was 16.7%, up by 7.1 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company's cash dividend per share was 0.18 yuan (before tax), an increase of 15.4% year-on-year, with a dividend payout ratio of 18.6% [2] Summary by Sections Business Overview - The company’s property and casualty insurance segment reported a premium income of 538.055 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.3% [3] - The combined ratio (COR) for property and casualty insurance was 98.5%, up by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, primarily impacted by significant disaster losses [3] - The company optimized its auto insurance business structure, achieving a market share of 38.8% in new car insurance [3] Life Insurance Performance - The new business value (NBV) for life insurance reached 7.849 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 114.2% [4] - The company adjusted its economic assumptions, lowering the investment return rate to 4.0% and the risk discount rate (RDR) to 8.5% [5] - The NBV for health insurance was 6.883 billion yuan, up by 143.6% year-on-year [2] Investment Income - Total investment income increased significantly by 86.2% year-on-year to 82.163 billion yuan, with a total investment yield of 5.6% [6] - The fair value gains improved from a loss of 13.293 billion yuan to a gain of 22.554 billion yuan [7] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2026 are maintained at 659.5 billion yuan and 712.6 billion yuan, respectively, with a new projection for 2027 at 736.8 billion yuan [8] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2026 has been raised to 45.5 billion yuan and 49.1 billion yuan, respectively [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2026 have been adjusted to 1.03 yuan and 1.11 yuan, respectively [8]

2024 年公司人身险（寿险和健康险）NBV 可比口径下同比增长127%，其中代理人/银保渠道分别同比 +86%/223%。2024 年新单保费小幅下滑1%，NBV 增长由利润率提升驱动。2024 年预定利率再次下 调、"报行合一"挤压渠道费用，带动假设调整前的NBV 利润率（新单保费基准）改善至18%（前值 8%）。合同服务边际CSM/EV 分别同比大幅提升22%/21%，增长强劲。公司下调长期投资收益率至 4.0%（前值：分红万能4.75%/传统险4.5%），下调贴现率至8.5%（前值：9%），假设调整导致NBV 下 降约22%。考虑到公司NBV 利润率有望提升，我们预计公司2025 年NBV 增长17%。 财产险：综合成本率上升 公司公布2024 年业绩：2024 EPS RMB0.95 同比提升90%，主要因投资业绩高增，符合公司此前业绩预 告（同比增长75%-95%）。公司人身险NBV可比口径下同比提升127%，增长强劲。财险业务综合成本 率同比上升1pct至98.8%，主要受自然灾害因素影响。24 年人身险利润贡献增长至40%（23年6%），预 计25 年仍处于较高水平并对利润形成支撑，上调A 股 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Pacific Insurance (601601) [2][8] Core Views - The company's new business value (NBV) grew by 57.7% year-on-year, significantly exceeding expectations, while the agent scale has stabilized [6][8] - The company adjusted its long-term investment return assumptions down by 50 basis points to 4.0%, and the risk discount rate by 50 basis points to 8.5% [6] - The expected net profit for 2024 is projected at 44.96 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 64.9% [5][10] Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 44.96 billion yuan and an operating profit of 34.43 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 64.9% and 2.5% respectively [5][10] - The company's total revenue for 2024 is expected to be 404.09 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.7% [10][12] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be 4.67 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 64.9% [10][12] Investment Performance - The company's investment income for 2024 is expected to reach 26.91 billion yuan, with a significant increase driven by the rebound in equity markets [8][12] - The total investment assets increased by 21.5% year-on-year to 27.3 trillion yuan, with equity assets contributing significantly [8] Market Data - As of March 27, 2025, the closing price of the stock is 32.20 yuan, with a market capitalization of 220.41 billion yuan [2][10] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2024 is projected at 6.89, indicating a favorable valuation [10][12]