US exceptionalism

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高盛:GOAL Kickstart_ 来自第 899 条的根本性转变和技术逆风
Goldman Sachs· 2025-06-10 02:16
10 June 2025 | 12:24AM BST Andrea Ferrario +44(20)7552-4353 | andrea.ferrario@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Christian Mueller-Glissmann, CFA GOAL Kickstart US exceptionalism - fundamental shifts and technical headwinds from Section 899 Last week both US Manufacturing and Services ISM came in below consensus, while NFPs growth slightly beat consensus (but still points to slowing US growth) and the unemployment rate remained flat. Key economic data releases this week will be US CPI and UofM reports. The ...
摩根大通:外汇展望-海湖庄园,协议与否
摩根· 2025-05-07 02:10
Investment Rating - The report maintains a bearish view on the USD, driven by underlying fundamentals rather than expectations of any multilateral accords [4][6]. Core Insights - The potential "Mar-a-Lago Accord" has been a topic of discussion among FX market participants, aimed at engineering USD weakness through various approaches, including punitive tariffs and adjustments in FX reserves [2][3]. - Recent USD weakness has been primarily European-led, attributed to a macro re-think regarding US exceptionalism and structural changes in US international policy [4][5]. - Asian FX appreciation has sparked speculation of a currency accord, indicating a potential shift in trade negotiations with the US [6][20]. - The report suggests that if USD/Asia continues to weaken, it would benefit cyclical currencies and broaden the dollar weakness, particularly impacting EUR/USD positively [40][41]. Summary by Sections USD Weakness Drivers - The report identifies cyclical and structural factors contributing to USD weakness, including declining real policy rates and a shift in US fiscal policy [5][9]. - Historical data indicates that the most bearish periods for the dollar occur when the term premium rises alongside a decline in Fed terminal rates [9][13]. Asian FX Dynamics - Recent movements in Asian currencies, particularly TWD, have broken historical records, leading to significant declines in USD against various Asian currencies [21][24]. - The report highlights that speculation around a currency accord has likely contributed to the strength of Asian FX, despite the absence of official confirmation [28][34]. Trade Recommendations - The report recommends buying AUD/USD and AUD/NZD, while suggesting selling USD/JPY and CHF/JPY as part of a macro portfolio strategy [65]. - It emphasizes that cyclical currencies like AUD are well-positioned to benefit from a potential rollback of tariffs and improved trade conditions [41][61].
高盛:GOAL Kickstart-市场对美国经济衰退和例外主义风险重新定价
Goldman Sachs· 2025-04-30 02:08
Investment Rating - The report maintains a defensive tactical stance with an overweight (OW) on bonds and cash, neutral (N) on credit, and an underweight (UW) on equities and commodities for the next three months [4]. Core Insights - Financial markets are currently navigating between the risks of a US recession and the concept of US exceptionalism, leading to a sell-off in US cyclicals compared to defensives and a widening of credit spreads [2][3]. - Recent equity market rallies have been supported by easing global growth concerns and more dovish monetary policy expectations, with technology stocks, particularly the Nasdaq, leading the rebound [3][10]. - The report highlights a significant outflow of approximately $60 billion from US stocks by foreign investors since March 1, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [3]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - US existing home sales and Euro area composite PMIs have both come in below expectations, while non-farm payrolls (NFPs) are expected to rise by 140,000 in April, above consensus [1]. - The market has begun to price in higher recession risks, leading to a relative underperformance of US equities compared to non-US equities [2]. Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic defensive sectors in Europe and taking advantage of resets in cross-asset volatility to add selective overlay hedges [4][15]. - The allocation recommendations include an underweight in equities across various indices, with specific forecasts for the S&P 500 and other major indices indicating potential downside in the short term [15]. Performance Metrics - The report provides performance metrics indicating that US equities, particularly the Nasdaq, have outperformed other indices since April 21, while Asian markets, especially China, have lagged [3][10]. - The correlation between US and non-US equities has started to decline, suggesting a potential shift in market dynamics [3][9]. Valuation and Risk Premia - The report includes a cross-asset valuation table showing current valuations and their percentiles relative to the past ten years, indicating that US equities are at a 71% expensiveness percentile [59]. - The current dividend yield for the S&P 500 is 1.5%, which is at the 16th percentile compared to the last ten years, suggesting a relatively low yield environment [62]. Fund Flows and Positioning - The report notes significant fund flows, with a focus on the cumulative flows across various asset classes, indicating a preference for safe assets over risky ones in recent weeks [74][78]. - The positioning data shows net long positions in equities and commodities, reflecting investor sentiment and market expectations [86][88].
美银:资金流向观察-从美国例外主义到美国信誉扫地
美银· 2025-04-14 01:32
Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment stance with a BofA Bull & Bear Indicator reading of 4.8, slightly down from 4.9, suggesting a cautious approach to risk assets [7][48]. Core Insights - The report discusses the transition from "US exceptionalism" to "US repudiation," highlighting a significant shift in foreign ownership of US assets, with foreigners holding 33% of US Treasuries, 27% of US corporate bonds, and 18% of US stocks [1][10]. - The report emphasizes the impact of higher US yields leading to lower stock prices and a weaker US dollar, which is driving global asset liquidation [2][17]. - It suggests that the S&P 500 valuation floor of 20x has now become a ceiling, indicating a bearish outlook for US equities [1][25]. Summary by Sections Treasury Ownership - Foreign ownership of US Treasuries has reached 33%, with the financial sector holding 31% and the government 24% [3]. Market Flows - There was a significant inflow of $48.9 billion into equities, driven by a $70.3 billion inflow to passive funds, while bonds experienced a $20.8 billion outflow [11][26]. - The report notes the largest weekly inflow into Treasuries at $18.8 billion and the largest outflow from high-yield bonds at $15.9 billion [16][27]. Economic Indicators - The report indicates that the US household equity wealth has decreased by $8 trillion year-to-date, following a $9 trillion increase in 2024, reflecting a negative wealth effect [18][22]. - The S&P 500 is projected to be priced-in around 4800, with expectations of a short and shallow recession [22][25]. Investment Strategies - The report recommends being long on 2-year Treasuries and short on the S&P 500 until there is a significant policy response from the Federal Reserve or a resolution in the US-China trade tensions [2][17]. - It advises investors to focus on high-quality corporate bonds yielding 5-6%, equities with strong dividend yields, and to consider emerging markets and commodities as potential investments [25][26].