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Summary of J.P. Morgan's China Metals Activity Tracker Industry Overview - The report focuses on the metals industry in China, specifically tracking inventory trends for steel, iron ore, copper, aluminum, and zinc as of the week ended July 18, 2025 [1][11]. Key Insights 1. **Copper Inventory Trends** - China typically experiences significant destocking of copper inventories from now until September. However, recent data shows a slowing pace of inventory drawdowns, with copper inventories increasing by 3,000 tons last week [1][12]. - The five-year average indicates a normal destocking of approximately 200,000 tons of copper during this period [1][12]. 2. **Steel Mill Margins** - There has been a notable improvement in China steel mill margins over the last three weeks, leading to a ~10% increase in iron ore prices to $102 per ton. Average hot-rolled coil (HRC) steel mill margins have returned to profitability for the first time since early 2023 [2][9]. - Rebar margins are close to breakeven, marking the strongest profitability since early 2023 [2][9]. 3. **Iron Ore Shipments and Production** - Iron ore shipments to China from Australia and Brazil have shown mixed results, with Australian shipments down by 4.3% week-over-week but up 8.2% year-over-year. Brazilian shipments increased by 23.9% week-over-week but decreased by 11.3% year-over-year [4][2]. - Total iron ore arrivals in China increased by 13.7% week-over-week, indicating a robust demand [4][2]. 4. **Impact of U.S. Tariffs on Copper** - A potential 50% tariff on U.S. copper imports, effective August 1, could reduce U.S. demand by approximately 4%, translating to a 0.2% decline in global copper demand [3][12]. - The U.S. exports around 540,000 to 580,000 tons of copper scrap annually, which could help mitigate a primary deficit of 700,000 to 800,000 tons per annum, although increased recycling capacity may take 2-3 years [3][12]. 5. **Physical Demand Indicators** - Despite recent increases in copper, aluminum, and zinc inventories, overall inventories remain at their lowest levels in over five years for this time of year, indicating tight physical markets [12][13]. - China's copper premium has risen by 70% in the last two weeks, reaching approximately $50 per ton, although it remains significantly below the year-to-date high of $103 per ton [12][13]. Additional Observations - The report highlights that the next ten weeks will be critical for assessing the health of Chinese physical copper consumers, as historical trends suggest a shift towards improved demand during this period [12][13]. - The report also includes detailed tables and figures illustrating inventory levels, shipment data, and price forecasts for various metals, providing a comprehensive view of the current market dynamics [4][9][34]. Conclusion - The J.P. Morgan report provides valuable insights into the current state of the metals industry in China, highlighting trends in inventory, pricing, and the potential impact of U.S. tariffs on copper demand. The data suggests a complex interplay of supply and demand factors that investors should monitor closely.

原油日报 | 2025-07-24 EIA商业原油库存下降，油价整体持稳 市场要闻与重要数据 1、纽约商品交易所9月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌6美分，收于每桶65.25美元，跌幅为0.09%；9月交货的伦敦布 伦特原油期货价格下跌8美分，收于每桶68.51美元，跌幅为0.12%。SC原油主力合约收涨0.42%，报506元/桶。 2、 阿联酋富查伊拉石油工业区最新数据显示，截至7月21日当周，阿联酋富查伊拉港的成品油总库存为2052.5万 桶，较一周前增加97.1万桶。其中轻质馏分油库存增加59.7万桶至798.5万桶，中质馏分油库存减少39.3万桶至220 万桶，重质残渣燃料油库存增加76.7万桶至1034万桶。 (来源：Bloomberg） 投资逻辑 油价近期维持区间震荡行情，短期矛盾与事件驱动不明显，但由于超高的中国原油库存，油价下行的风险正在积 累，对于中国持续增加的原油库存，市场的理解存在分歧，一种观点认为这是中国补充SPR，且未来中国投产的原 油库存体量依然较大，累库具备一定的可持续性；另一种观点认为，大幅累库主要来自原油加工量与进口量增长 的不匹配，反应了内需疲软。我们认为核心的问题虽然当前的月差 ...

Core Insights - Home Depot Inc.'s inventory strategy for fiscal 2025 is designed to enhance operational resilience and meet customer demand amid macroeconomic uncertainties, with a year-over-year inventory increase of $3.3 billion to $25.8 billion in Q1 fiscal 2025 [1][11] Inventory Strategy - The increase in inventory is a strategic decision to maintain high in-stock levels ahead of the peak spring season, rather than a reaction to overstocking or panic buying, resulting in improved product availability and faster fulfillment [2] - Home Depot's diversified sourcing strategy, with over 50% of goods sourced domestically, reduces reliance on any single country, helping to manage tariff risks and supply chain disruptions [3][11] - The use of digital tools, such as the AI-powered Magic Apron, enhances online conversions and customer confidence by improving access to product information [3] Market Position and Competitors - Despite a challenging macroeconomic environment, Home Depot has successfully captured demand for smaller DIY and Pro projects, with strong engagement in high-demand categories like building materials and outdoor garden products [4] - Competitors like Lowe's and Floor & Decor are adopting more disciplined inventory strategies, focusing on tighter SKU management and demand forecasting to optimize working capital [5][6] - Lowe's is investing in supply chain modernization and advanced demand forecasting tools to enhance operational efficiency and compete effectively with Home Depot [6][7] - Floor & Decor maintains a focused inventory model with deep inventory levels in key categories, ensuring customer access to necessary products for entire projects [8][9] Financial Performance - Home Depot's shares have declined by 4.6% year to date, compared to a 9.4% decline in the industry [10] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 23.64X, higher than the industry's 20.52X, with a VGM Score of B [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a year-over-year earnings decline of 1.3% for fiscal 2025, but a growth of 9.2% is expected for fiscal 2026 [13]

Core Insights - NIKE Inc. is focusing on inventory streamlining and marketplace reset as part of its turnaround strategy, but there are concerns about the timing of these efforts in relation to the broader growth slowdown [1][3] - In Q4 fiscal 2025, NIKE's revenues fell nearly 12% year-over-year, while inventory levels remained flat, indicating ongoing challenges despite aggressive discounting [1][8] - The company aims to achieve a "healthy and clean" inventory position by the end of the first half of fiscal 2026, which will involve more discounting and continued pressure on digital traffic [2][8] Inventory Management - NIKE is implementing a phased inventory reset, expecting improvements in inventory quality and sell-through rates in regions like North America and EMEA, while Greater China requires deeper discounting and supply cuts [2][3] - Analysts express skepticism about NIKE's reliance on markdowns and value channels, which may dilute the brand and weaken long-term consumer perception [3] Competitive Landscape - Competitors like adidas and lululemon are also managing inventory challenges, with adidas reporting double-digit declines in inventory levels and lululemon facing rising pressures but maintaining confidence in inventory quality [4][5][6] Financial Performance - NIKE's stock has declined 2.2% year-to-date, outperforming the industry's decline of 6.6% [7] - The forward price-to-earnings ratio for NIKE is 41.17X, significantly higher than the industry average of 29.33X [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a 22.7% year-over-year decline in earnings for fiscal 2025, followed by a projected growth of 55% for fiscal 2026 [10]

July 18, 2025 09:14 AM GMT Oil Data Digest | Europe M Update Weekly Oil Stock Summary Total oil inventories built by 0.9 mln bbls last week. Crude stocks drew by 2.5 mln bbls, driven by a sizeable draw in the US. Refined product stocks built by 3.4 mln bbls, driven by a large build in the US. The charts below summarise all oil inventory data available on a weekly basis for the US from the EIA, Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam (ARA) from Genscape and PJK, Japan from PAJ, Singapore from IE, and the Fujairah hub (U ...

through the roof. Welcome back. July through October.>> Is typically when ocean freight peaks ahead of back to school and holiday and year end demand. This year is a little different. A lot of shippers, as you know, front loaded their inventory ahead of tariffs.And during that 90 day pause. Now the industry is watching this August 1st deadline. Ryan Peterson joins us today, the CEO of logistics company Flexport with what he's seen and Ryan what the what the inventory trajectory is from here.After a couple o ...

Core Insights - The analysis highlights the significant impact of unsold older properties on inventory levels and price trends in the residential real estate market, despite being overlooked by buyers and analysts [1] Inventory Trends - In Sydney, there are currently 6,300 unsold properties that have been on the market for over 180 days, representing a 30% increase compared to the same period last year [4] - The total number of properties available for buyers in Sydney is 34,500, with approximately 18% classified as unsold inventory [5] - Nationally, over 77,000 properties have been on the market for six months or longer, marking a 13.5% year-on-year increase [11] Market Dynamics - The increase in older inventory indicates a mismatch between pricing and buyers' willingness and ability to purchase [6] - Many sellers in Sydney are still holding onto unrealistic price expectations, which, combined with high living costs and mortgage rates, dampens buyer enthusiasm [9] - The sales cycle for properties in Sydney has lengthened, with a decrease in transaction volumes due to unrealistic price expectations [12] Comparative Analysis - The number of unsold properties in Sydney remains significantly lower than the record of 10,000 in 2019, when total listings peaked near 40,000 [11] - In Brisbane, the number of older properties has decreased by 7% year-on-year, contrasting with the overall trend in other capital cities [11] - In the U.S., 24% of inventory consists of unsold properties, the highest rate since 2020, indicating a broader international trend [11] Sales Performance - The median listing time for luxury homes in Mosman has decreased to 60 days, down from 7 months two years ago, but sales have slowed by 15 days compared to last year [14] - The sales cycle for properties in Bundeena has increased from 57 days in July 2023 to 99 days currently [14] - Kings Langley properties now take an average of 38 days to sell, double the time compared to two years ago [14]

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BOCA RATON, Fla., July 15, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Q.E.P. CO., INC. (OTCQX: QEPC) (the "Company" or "QEP") today announced its financial results for the first quarter ended May 31, 2025 and declared its second quarter cash dividend. Results of Operations Net sales for the quarter ended May 31, 2025 were $61.5 million, down $2.0 million or 3.1% from $63.5 million reported for the first quarter of fiscal 2025. The slight decline in net sales was primarily due to the ongoing softness in home improvement spend ...