Report Information - Report Date: October 16, 2025 [2] - Report Title: Big Asset Morning Report [9] Global Asset Market Performance 10-Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On October 15, 2025, yields in the US, UK, France, etc., were 4.034%, 4.674%, 3.478% respectively [3] - Latest changes were all 0.000%, with weekly, monthly, and yearly variations differing across countries [3] 2-Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On October 15, 2025, yields in the US, UK, Germany, etc., were 3.480%, 3.952%, 1.957% respectively [3] - Latest changes, weekly, monthly, and yearly variations varied by country [3] US Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies - On October 15, 2025, rates against Brazil, Russia, South Africa, etc., were 5.521, 108.000, 17.505 respectively [3] - Latest changes were 0.00%, with weekly, monthly, and yearly percentage changes differing [3] Stock Indices of Major Economies - On October 15, 2025, indices like S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq were 6552.510, 45479.600, 22204.430 respectively [3] - Latest changes were 0.00%, with weekly, monthly, and yearly percentage changes varying [3] Credit Bond Indices - On October 15, 2025, US investment - grade, euro - area investment - grade, etc., indices were 3529.690, 265.945, etc. respectively [3] - Latest changes were 0.00%, with weekly, monthly, and yearly percentage changes differing [3][4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - Closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., were 3912.21, 4606.29, 3001.35 respectively [5] - Percentage changes in prices were 1.22%, 1.48%, 1.36% respectively [5] Valuation - PE(TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, etc., were 14.31, 11.95, 34.70 respectively [5] -环比 changes were 0.17, 0.11, 0.43 respectively [5] Risk Premium - 1/PE - 10 - year interest rates of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, etc., were 3.70, 5.77, - 0.38 respectively [5] -环比 changes were all 0.00 [5] Fund Flows - Latest values of A - shares, main board, small and medium - sized enterprise board, etc., were 535.21, 302.49, - 56.21 respectively [5] - 5 - day average values were - 543.77, - 301.19, - 56.21 respectively [5] Trading Volume - Latest trading volumes of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., were 20728.59, 6073.26, 1571.06 respectively [5] -环比 changes were - 5033.74, - 2016.33, - 620.88 respectively [5] Main Premium/Discount - Basis of IF, IH, IC were - 29.89, - 3.95, - 153.80 respectively [5] - Magnitudes were - 0.65%, - 0.13%, - 2.11% respectively [5] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data Closing Prices and Percentage Changes - Closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, TF01 were 108.130, 105.730, 107.815, 105.635 respectively [6] - Percentage changes were 0.10%, 0.09%, 0.11%, 0.09% respectively [6] Fund Interest Rates - R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M were 1.3519%, 1.4694%, 1.5810% respectively [6] - Daily changes (BP) were - 12.00, 0.00, 0.00 respectively [6]

Core Viewpoint - Cathay Securities believes that rising geopolitical uncertainties may temporarily increase volatility in global equity markets, presenting opportunities for Chinese equity assets and gold. The recommendation for October is to increase holdings in A-shares, overweight gold, and maintain a standard allocation in bonds [1][2]. Asset Allocation Framework - The asset allocation framework consists of Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA), Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA), and Major Event Review Adjustments. SAA aims to diversify macro risks and set long-term allocation benchmarks, while TAA identifies short-term risk-return characteristics to adjust portfolio weights for improved returns. Major events are subjectively reviewed to correct and supplement quantitative results [2][3]. Equity Market Outlook - The recommendation for equity allocation in October is 41.25%, with overweight positions in A-shares (8.75%) and Hong Kong stocks (8.75%), standard allocation in U.S. stocks (15.00%), underweight in European stocks (2.75%), standard allocation in Japanese stocks (3.25%), and underweight in Indian stocks (2.75%). The outlook for Chinese A/H shares remains positive, with market adjustments viewed as buying opportunities [3][4]. Bond Market Outlook - The recommendation for bond allocation in October is 45%, with standard allocations in long-term government bonds (10.00%), short-term government bonds (12.50%), long-term U.S. Treasuries (10.00%), and short-term U.S. Treasuries (12.50%). The bond market is supported by imbalanced credit supply and demand, along with stable liquidity. The ongoing themes of "central bank bond purchases" and adjustments in redemption fees for bond funds will continue to play a role [4]. Commodity Market Outlook - The recommendation for commodity allocation in October is 13.75%, with an overweight position in gold (10%), underweight in oil (1.25%), and standard allocation in industrial commodities (2.5%). The gold market remains strong, having surpassed key resistance levels, supported by factors such as Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and continued purchases by the Chinese central bank [4].

Core Viewpoint - The report suggests that rising geopolitical uncertainties may temporarily increase volatility in global equity markets, while Chinese equity assets and gold may still present performance opportunities. It recommends increasing holdings in AH shares and gold in October, while maintaining a standard allocation to bonds [1]. Group 1: Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) - The framework consists of Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA), Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA), and Major Event Review Adjustments, aimed at guiding investment decisions [1]. - SAA is designed to diversify macro risks and set long-term allocation benchmarks to ensure portfolio robustness [1]. Group 2: Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) - The report is optimistic about Chinese equities, recommending an equity allocation weight of 41.25% for October, with overweight positions in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [2]. - The report indicates that geopolitical uncertainties may create buying opportunities in the Chinese market, suggesting that the current market adjustments are not the end of the upward trend [2]. Group 3: Bond Allocation - The report maintains a neutral stance on bonds, recommending a bond allocation weight of 45% for October, with standard allocations to both long-term and short-term government bonds [3]. - It notes that the imbalance in credit supply and demand, along with stable liquidity, continues to support the bond market [3]. Group 4: Commodity Allocation - The report expresses a neutral to optimistic view on commodities, recommending a commodity allocation weight of 13.75% for October, with an overweight position in gold [3]. - It highlights that gold prices have recently surged past key resistance levels, supported by factors such as Federal Reserve rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions [3].

Group 1 - The report suggests an increase in allocation to Chinese equity assets and gold, while maintaining a standard allocation to bonds due to rising geopolitical uncertainties and potential market volatility [1][5]. - The recommended equity allocation weight is 41.25%, with specific allocations to A-shares (8.75%), Hong Kong stocks (8.75%), US stocks (15.00%), European stocks (2.75%), Japanese stocks (3.25%), and Indian stocks (2.75%) [5][9]. - The report expresses optimism regarding the performance of Chinese A/H shares, viewing current market adjustments as buying opportunities [5][9]. Group 2 - The bond allocation is suggested to be 45%, with standard allocations to long-term and short-term government bonds in both domestic and US markets [5][9]. - The report indicates a neutral to slightly optimistic view on commodities, recommending a 13.75% allocation, with a focus on gold (10%) and a lower allocation to oil (1.25%) [5][9]. - Gold prices are expected to remain strong, having recently surpassed key resistance levels, supported by factors such as Federal Reserve rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions [5][9].

Core Insights - The article discusses the growing interest in cross-border ETF investments, particularly focusing on the recent submissions of Brazilian ETFs by Huaxia Fund and E Fund, highlighting the diversification of investment opportunities in overseas markets [1][8]. Group 1: Cross-Border ETF Landscape - The current trend in cross-border ETF investments shows a diverse range of options, with significant attention on the Saudi ETF and the French CAC40 ETF [1]. - The recent submissions of Brazilian ETFs indicate a new addition to the cross-border ETF family, enhancing the investment landscape for Chinese investors [1]. Group 2: Brazilian Market Insights - The Ibovespa index is a key indicator of the Brazilian economy, characterized by its resource-oriented nature, with major components including Vale and Petrobras, linking its performance closely to international commodity prices and Chinese economic demand [1][2]. - Brazil's stock market is heavily weighted towards the commodities sector, followed by a significant representation of the financial sector, reflecting its status as an emerging market [2]. Group 3: Performance and Valuation - The Ibovespa index has shown a 12% annualized return over the past decade, with a year-to-date return of 21.6% as of September, outperforming the Chinese stock market [5]. - The valuation of the Ibovespa index remains relatively low compared to other emerging markets, making it an attractive option for global asset allocation [5]. Group 4: ETF Market Dynamics - In the last three months, cross-border ETFs have seen a net inflow of nearly 200 billion, making them one of the most popular ETF categories, second only to bond ETFs [8]. - The overall ETF market has experienced a net inflow of approximately 428.4 billion, with significant contributions from various ETF categories, including cross-border ETFs [9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The expansion of cross-border ETF connectivity is expected to enhance the accessibility of global capital markets for domestic investors, providing a convenient investment channel [8]. - The shift towards diversified asset allocation, including commodities and foreign exchange, is anticipated to play a crucial role in wealth management strategies moving forward [10].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes a balanced approach to factor selection, integrating macroeconomic quantitative insights with factor momentum to identify resonant factors while adjusting for discrepancies between macro and micro indicators [1] - Current macroeconomic indicators show signs of economic recovery, slightly loose liquidity, and improved credit metrics, leading to a revised outlook of economic improvement, weak liquidity, and loose credit [1] - The article presents a table summarizing the performance of various factors across different indices, indicating that growth factors remain strong in the CSI 300, while the CSI 500 shows a more balanced factor selection [2][3] Group 2 - Economic leading indicators are beginning to rise, with the PMI and new orders showing increases, suggesting a slight upward trend in economic activity expected to continue into early 2026 [5][9] - The liquidity environment is assessed as slightly loose despite rising interest rates, with a comprehensive liquidity signal indicating a mixed outlook [11][15] - Credit indicators are showing weakness, with a slight positive shift in overall credit metrics, indicating a complex credit environment [15][16] Group 3 - The article suggests a preference for asset allocation towards gold due to strong momentum, while equity allocations are slightly reduced, reflecting a cautious stance on A-shares [16] - The focus of market attention is shifting from liquidity to economic indicators, with recent trends indicating a growing concern for economic performance over liquidity conditions [17] - Industry selection is advised to favor sectors sensitive to economic changes but less affected by liquidity, with public utilities and coal being highlighted as top sectors based on their sensitivity scores [19]

Core Viewpoint - The current market environment presents a favorable opportunity for investing in multi-strategy fixed income products, emphasizing risk control and sustainable returns over maximizing short-term gains [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The investment philosophy prioritizes risk management, with a focus on controlling drawdowns and ensuring accumulative returns [2][4]. - The approach involves setting predetermined stop-loss and take-profit points for each trade, balancing between profit-taking and risk management [3]. - The company emphasizes a top-down asset allocation strategy, making macro-level judgments to guide investment decisions [4][5]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to have limited further adjustments, with potential opportunities for allocation in the fourth quarter [7]. - The equity market is anticipated to continue its structural rally, with a focus on selecting next-tier leaders or broad-based ETFs to reduce portfolio volatility [7]. - Convertible bonds are viewed as a significant source of yield enhancement, with a focus on stocks with strong growth potential and themes like "anti-involution" and AI-related sectors [7][8]. Group 3: Team and Product Development - The fixed income team at the company consists of nearly 70 professionals with an average of 7 years of experience, covering a wide range of asset classes and investment strategies [5][6]. - Since 2016, the company has developed a mature management system for multi-strategy fixed income products, currently offering 14 different products [6]. - The company aims to balance volatility and return sources while allowing fund managers to leverage their strengths and meet investors' risk preferences [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of risk management and sustainable returns in investment strategies, particularly in the context of fixed income multi-strategy products, as articulated by the fund manager Gong Zhifang [1][4][7]. Group 1: Market Conditions and Investment Strategy - The equity market has shown an upward trend this year, making fixed income multi-strategy products increasingly attractive for investors seeking value preservation and growth [1][4]. - Gong Zhifang believes that the current market conditions present a good opportunity for allocating to fixed income multi-strategy products, as the bond market's adjustment is limited and structural opportunities in the equity market are expected to continue [4][14]. - The strategy focuses on balancing risk and return, with an emphasis on not pursuing the last bit of profit at the expense of increased risk [5][9]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy and Risk Management - Gong Zhifang's investment philosophy is rooted in financial risk management, prioritizing risk control before seeking returns, which aligns with the broader investment approach of the fixed income team at the company [6][7]. - The approach includes setting predefined stop-loss and take-profit points for each trade, with a focus on both absolute and relative returns [8][9]. - The team emphasizes a low volatility and stable return investment philosophy, ensuring that risk management is at the forefront of their strategies [7][12]. Group 3: Asset Allocation and Research - The investment strategy involves a top-down approach to asset allocation, focusing on macroeconomic factors and market trends rather than individual stock selection [11][14]. - The fixed income research team consists of approximately 70 members with an average of 7 years of experience, covering a wide range of areas from macroeconomic analysis to credit risk identification [11][12]. - The company has developed a mature management system for fixed income multi-strategy products since 2016, with a balanced product matrix across different risk levels [12]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Opportunities - The company anticipates limited further adjustments in the bond market and sees potential allocation opportunities in the fourth quarter, while the equity market is expected to continue its structural performance [14][15]. - The focus on convertible bonds is driven by the expectation of continued growth in underlying stocks, with a strategy that includes investing in sectors with strong growth potential [15]. - The upcoming issuance of a new bond fund aims to enhance returns through a combination of credit bonds and dynamic trading strategies [15].

Macro Economic Overview - The report emphasizes the importance of the upcoming 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, which is expected to discuss the 15th Five-Year Plan for national economic and social development, particularly in the context of a complex external environment and weakening global economic growth [7][22] - The macroeconomic outlook indicates a focus on domestic growth stabilization policies and the progress of US-China trade negotiations [5][21] Asset Performance Review - The A-share market experienced a slight adjustment post-holiday, with the CSI 300 index declining by 0.51%, while the CSI 300 stock index futures rose by 1.49% [3][14] - The yield on ten-year government bonds decreased by 2 basis points to 1.85%, and the active ten-year government bond futures increased by 0.26% [3][14] - The report notes a mixed performance in various asset classes, with coal futures rising by 2.42% and iron ore futures declining by 0.38% [3][14] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests an overweight position in stocks, particularly focusing on the implementation of "incremental" policies, while recommending a lower allocation to bonds due to potential short-term impacts from the stock-bond relationship [5][15] - The allocation to commodities is maintained at a standard level, with attention to the progress of fiscal incremental policies [5][15] Economic Data Insights - The manufacturing PMI for September was reported at 49.8%, indicating a slight improvement, while the non-manufacturing PMI remained stable at 50.0% [21][22] - Consumer spending during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays showed a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, with significant growth in both goods and services consumption [21][22] Industry-Specific Developments - The report highlights the government's support for consumption through the issuance of special bonds totaling 690 billion yuan to promote the replacement of old consumer goods [22][23] - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from policies encouraging trade-ins, with a notable increase in sales anticipated [35][41]

Macroeconomic Overview - The macroeconomic focus is on the implementation of domestic growth stabilization policies, with a one-month outlook remaining unchanged[5] - The manufacturing PMI for September is reported at 49.8%, indicating a slight increase of 0.4 percentage points, while the non-manufacturing PMI is at 50.0%, down by 0.3 percentage points[19] - During the National Day holiday, daily sales revenue in consumption-related industries increased by 4.5% year-on-year, with goods and service consumption growing by 3.9% and 7.6% respectively[19] Asset Performance - The CSI 300 index fell by 0.51% this week, while the CSI 300 stock index futures rose by 1.49%[3] - Coal futures increased by 2.42%, while iron ore futures decreased by 0.38%[3] - The expected yield for bank wealth management products is at 1.85%, and the 7-day annualized yield for Yu'ebao dropped by 4 basis points to 1.05%[3] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommended asset allocation order is: Stocks > Commodities > Bonds > Currency[7] - Stocks are overweight due to the focus on the implementation of "incremental" policies[5] - Bonds and currency are underweight, with yields expected to fluctuate around 2%[5] Market Trends - The ten-year government bond yield decreased by 2 basis points to 1.85%, while active ten-year government bond futures rose by 0.26%[3] - The overall performance of A-shares shows a divergence, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks this week[13] - The VIX index increased to 21.66, indicating heightened market volatility[17]