本报记者 彭妍 展望四季度银行理财规模走势，业内专家普遍持乐观态度。高政扬表示，预计银行理财发行规模将保持温和增长态势。一 方面，存款利率下行叠加前期高息存款陆续到期，居民资产配置需求持续释放，理财产品的收益率优势有望进一步吸引资金流 入；另一方面，随着权益市场逐步回暖，"固收+"类产品的发行规模或将逐步增加。值得关注的是，纯固收类产品受宏观利率 环境及资产端收益率结构性压制的影响，后续整体收益率预计仍呈下行趋势，而权益市场的回暖恰好能为"固收+"类产品提供 收益增厚空间，助力平衡产品整体收益水平。 中国邮政储蓄银行研究员娄飞鹏告诉《证券日报》记者，银行理财规模在四季度预计将呈现"稳中有缓"的增长特征——尽 管存款利率下行与居民资产再配置仍是重要支撑因素，但规模增速可能会逐步放缓。 对于如何平衡规模扩张与收益稳健，高政扬认为，首先可搭建"固收打底+多元增厚"的资产配置框架，以固收类资产控制 产品波动风险，同时适度增配权益等资产提升收益水平，通过多策略组合进一步分散风险；其次需细化产品分层，针对不同风 险偏好的客群设计差异化产品，精准满足各类投资者在风险偏好与流动性上的需求；最后在运营管理层面，还应强化久期管理 ...

Group 1 - The bank wealth management market has reached a record scale of 32.13 trillion yuan as of the end of Q3 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 9.42% [1] - Fixed income products dominate the market, with a total scale of 31.21 trillion yuan, accounting for over 97% of the total [1] - Despite the growth in scale, the returns on wealth management products have been declining, with cumulative returns of 568.9 billion yuan in the first three quarters, decreasing from 206 billion yuan in Q1 to 179.2 billion yuan in Q3 [1] Group 2 - Under a moderately loose monetary policy, the downward trend in bond market interest rates and deposit rates will continue to suppress the yields of pure fixed income products [3] - "Fixed income +" strategy products are expected to become a significant growth engine for the wealth management market in Q4, with an estimated annual scale increase of over 1.4 trillion yuan [3] - In Q3, banks increased their allocation to cash and bank deposits, interpreted as a safety cushion during the interest rate decline cycle, while reducing their allocation to public funds [3] Group 3 - The market landscape is changing, with wealth management companies expanding their market share to 91.13% of the total by the end of Q3 [3] - The enthusiasm of banks to apply for wealth management licenses has varied, with some banks showing reduced motivation while regional banks like Chengdu Bank are actively pursuing license applications [3] - More small and medium-sized banks are shifting towards agency sales, with 583 institutions participating in cross-bank sales of wealth management products as of September this year [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trends and challenges in the fixed income plus (固收+) market, highlighting the shrinking market size and the cautious investor sentiment towards these products amid fluctuating bond market conditions [1][4]. Group 1: Fixed Income Plus Market Overview - The fixed income plus market is experiencing a broad expansion in bank wealth management products, with pure fixed income products increasing while mixed products are declining [2]. - The estimated scale of the broad fixed income plus market is approximately 5 trillion yuan, but the proportion of yield-enhancing assets remains low [2]. - The narrow fixed income plus market has been shrinking since the end of 2021, with a disconnect between product net value fluctuations and share changes [2]. Group 2: Fund and Private Equity Insights - The public fund market reached a total scale of 31.15 trillion yuan in Q4 2024, but fixed income plus products have not escaped the downward trend [3]. - Since 2022, the market size of fixed income plus funds has been contracting, despite high annualized returns in recent quarters [3]. - The private equity market, particularly in securities asset management, continues to focus on fixed income products, with limited mixed product representation [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Fixed Income Plus Products - The shrinking market size is attributed to low risk appetite among bank wealth management clients and a weak earning effect from fixed income plus products [4]. - A stable equity market is seen as crucial for the recovery of the fixed income plus market, with potential for increased acceptance and market size if the equity market maintains a steady upward trend [5]. - The strategy is shifting from a single stock-bond mix to a more diversified asset allocation approach [5]. Group 4: Recent Bond Market Redemption Pressure - Recent significant fluctuations in the bond market have raised concerns about increased redemption pressure from institutional liabilities, potentially impacting interest rate adjustments [6]. - Despite recent volatility, the stability of bank wealth management products suggests that the redemption pressure is manageable, with net buying of direct bonds remaining stable [6].