| 申万期货品种策略日报——股指 2025/7/4 | 星期五 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 申银万国期货研究所 贾婷婷（从业资格号：F3056905；交易咨询号：Z0016232 ）jiatt@sywgqh.com.cn;15921620356 | | | | | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 柴玉荣 （从业资格号：F03111639；交易咨询号：Z0018586）chaiyr@sywgqh.com.cn;18802979529 | | | | | | | | | 一、股指期货市场 | | | | | | | | | IF当月 IF下月 | | | | | IF下季 IF隔季 | | | | 前两日收盘价 3921.00 3903.20 | | | | | 3894.20 3856.20 | | | | 前日收盘价 3946.60 3928.00 | | | | | 3918.00 3879.00 | | | | 涨跌 27.00 25.80 沪深300 | | | | | 26.20 24.80 | ...

Group 1: U.S.-China Relations and Technology - The U.S. government has lifted export restrictions on chip design software to China, allowing companies like Synopsys, Cadence, and Siemens to fully restore access to their software and technology for Chinese clients [1] - The U.S. Commerce Department has not confirmed reports of President Biden planning to lead a business delegation to China, emphasizing the need for mutual respect and cooperation in U.S.-China economic relations [1] Group 2: AI Developments - Grok 4 has been introduced as the latest flagship model by xAI, boasting unparalleled performance in natural language, mathematics, and reasoning, with future support for visual and image generation [2] - The news publishing industry is facing challenges as traffic from AI-driven search results is increasing, leading to a decline in direct visits to news websites, with a significant drop in natural traffic from over 2.3 billion visits to below 1.7 billion [3] Group 3: Medical Device Regulations - The National Medical Products Administration of China is implementing supportive policies for high-end medical devices based on brain-computer interface technology, aiming to optimize the review process for innovative medical devices [5] Group 4: Corporate News - Xiaomi's founder Lei Jun expressed regret over the company's first self-developed chip, Pinecone, during a live stream, indicating a shift in focus to their new chip, Surge O1 [6] - Xiaomi has recently applied for multiple "REDMI" trademarks across various categories, indicating potential expansion into new markets [6] Group 5: Legal and Market Developments - Yongtai Technology has filed a lawsuit against Tianci Materials for defamation, with the case involving a total claim of 57.52 million RMB [7] - Dong Mingzhu, the chairwoman of Gree Electric Appliances, has fallen off the list of the most powerful businesswomen in China for the first time in 15 years, highlighting a shift in recognition towards female entrepreneurs in the AI sector [7] Group 6: Gaming Regulations - Tencent Games has announced that minors will be limited to a total of 27 hours of gaming during the summer vacation, aligning with similar regulations from NetEase Games [7]

Important Market News - US stock market closed early on Thursday with all three major indices rising; S&P 500 increased by 0.83%, Nasdaq by 1.02%, and Dow Jones by 0.77%, marking the seventh historical closing high for S&P 500 this year and the fourth for Nasdaq [1] - Technology stocks saw widespread gains, with Nvidia rising 1.3% to a historical high and New思科技 increasing by 4.9%; Bitcoin-related stocks also surged, with Circle up over 6% [1] - International oil prices slightly declined, with WTI crude oil down 0.40% to $67.18 per barrel and Brent crude down 0.32% to $68.89 per barrel; COMEX gold futures fell 0.71% to $3336.00 per ounce, while silver futures rose 0.85% to $37.04 per ounce [1] - European stock indices closed higher, with Germany's DAX up 0.61% to 23934.13 points and France's CAC40 up 0.21% to 7754.55 points [1] Industry Insights - On July 3, the National Medical Products Administration of China announced measures to optimize lifecycle regulation to support high-end medical device innovation, including special approval procedures for medical robots and high-end imaging equipment [2] - Brain-computer interface technology is expected to revolutionize human-machine interaction, initially focusing on medical rehabilitation, with potential expansion into education, entertainment, and industrial applications [2] - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating its industrialization process, with solid-state batteries being recognized as the next-generation battery technology, particularly in cost-sensitive fields like humanoid robots and low-altitude applications [3] - China ranks second globally in solid-state battery patent applications, with over 46,000 applications as of May 16, 2025, indicating a rapid catch-up with Japan [3] - The National Cryptography Administration and other agencies released regulations for the management of commercial passwords, effective from August 1, 2025, which will impact key information infrastructure sectors such as energy, finance, and communication [4][5] - The commercial password market in China is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 25%, reaching 140 billion yuan by 2025, driven by the new regulations [5] Company Updates - 中钢洛耐 announced that its shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 562,500 shares, representing 0.5% of the total share capital [6] - 曲江文旅 reported that a court will auction 12 million shares held by its controlling shareholder on an online platform [6] - 威唐工业 disclosed plans for its controlling shareholder to reduce their stake by up to 170,000 shares, accounting for 0.9727% of the total share capital [7] - 合盛硅业 intends to participate in an ETF exchange transaction, planning to exchange up to 1,182,210 shares, or 1% of the total share capital [7] - 财富趋势 announced a plan for its actual controller to reduce their stake by up to 768,340 shares, representing 3% of the total share capital [8]

Group 1 - China's successful launch of the experimental satellite Tiankong-28B01 demonstrates the country's solid development in space technology, with the Long March 4B rocket completing its 583rd flight [1] - The satellite is primarily used for space environment detection and related technology experiments, reinforcing China's capability in autonomous space technology [1] Group 2 - Siemens announced that the U.S. government has lifted export restrictions on chip design software to China, allowing full access for Chinese customers to Siemens' software and technology [2] - This change indicates a potential easing of trade tensions and could enhance collaboration in the technology sector between the U.S. and China [2] Group 3 - The National Medical Products Administration of China is implementing supportive policies for high-end medical devices based on brain-computer interface technology, aiming to optimize the innovation review process [3] - The initiative includes special reviews for innovative medical devices with significant clinical value, enhancing communication between applicants and review experts [3] - The regulatory framework aims to accelerate the market entry of high-end medical devices, ultimately improving accessibility to advanced medical technologies for patients [3]

Group 1 - The State Council issued a notification to enhance the Free Trade Zone's alignment with international high-standard economic and trade rules, aiming for a high-level institutional opening-up [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need for comprehensive governance of low-price disorderly competition in the photovoltaic industry to promote high-quality development [4] - The Shanghai Municipal Government plans to increase the number of tax refund stores to over 3,000 and service points to over 10,000 by 2027, aiming to quadruple the scale of tax refund consumption compared to 2024 [6] Group 2 - The National Medical Products Administration announced support policies for high-end medical devices based on brain-computer interface technology, including optimizing special approval processes and improving classification rules [2] - The U.S. and Vietnam reached a trade agreement that may impose tariffs on goods transiting through Vietnam, which could impact Chinese products [5] - The performance of several stocks with pre-increase announcements has been active, indicating the upcoming mid-year report season [7][6] Group 3 - The U.S. stock market indices rose collectively, with notable gains in semiconductor design software stocks following the lifting of export controls on certain products to China [8] - The U.S. House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful" bill, which could have significant implications for U.S. capital markets and global investors if implemented successfully [9] - The approval of a new innovative drug by the FDA marks a significant advancement for domestic pharmaceutical companies, with expectations for further growth in the innovative drug sector [11]

Group 1 - The National Medical Products Administration has announced measures to optimize the lifecycle supervision to support the innovation and development of high-end medical devices, along with policies for medical devices based on brain-computer interface technology [1] - The Trump administration has lifted some export licensing requirements for chip design software to China, allowing major chip software companies like Synopsys to resume supply to China [1] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's Silicon Industry Branch reported that silicon wafer prices are currently below the cash costs of most producing silicon wafer companies, leading to strong price support intentions from companies; production cuts among silicon wafer manufacturers have noticeably increased under low-price conditions [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held the 15th manufacturing enterprise symposium, emphasizing the need for legal and regulatory compliance to address low-price disorder in the photovoltaic industry, guiding companies to enhance product quality and promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity [1] - The US-Vietnam trade agreement will impose a 40% tariff on transshipped goods, with the Chinese Foreign Ministry stating that China advocates for resolving trade differences through equal dialogue and negotiation, and that such negotiations should not target or harm the interests of third parties [1] Group 2 - The company Weiming Pharmaceutical has experienced a situation that may trigger other risk warnings after two consecutive trading halts [2] - Wealth Trend's actual controller and chairman plans to reduce holdings by no more than 3% of the company's shares [2] - Yamaton, which has seen two consecutive trading halts, did not disclose its own production arrangements or performance forecasts in an interview regarding the photovoltaic glass industry's temporary production cuts [2] - Huayin Power, after two consecutive trading halts, expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 180 million to 220 million yuan for the half-year period (unaudited) [2] - Jieli Rigging, which has seen two consecutive trading halts, confirmed that it does not violate information disclosure regulations [2] - Chengbang Co., which has seen six consecutive trading halts, has a high pledge ratio for its controlling shareholder and concerted parties [2] - Vanke A has applied for a loan of no more than 6.249 billion yuan from Shenzhen Metro Group and has extended part of its existing loans [2] - Dazhongnan, which has seen eight consecutive trading halts, produces CPP aluminum-plastic film suitable for solid-state lithium battery packaging but has not yet started production of this product [2]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce reported that from January to May 2025, China's service trade grew steadily, with total service trade reaching 32,543.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%. Exports were 14,033.7 billion yuan, up 15.1%, while imports were 18,509.9 billion yuan, increasing by 2.7%. The service trade deficit was 4,476.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,352.2 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting focusing on accelerating the high-quality development of the photovoltaic industry, emphasizing the need to address low-price disorderly competition and guide companies to improve product quality [2] - The Tianjin Municipal Government is seeking public opinion on the "Tianjin Science and Technology Finance Action Plan (2025-2027)", which aims to establish a regional equity market to support 300 companies and create a listing reserve of 100 technology companies [3] Group 2 - The National Medical Products Administration announced measures to optimize the lifecycle supervision of high-end medical devices, including special reviews for innovative medical devices with significant clinical value and support for products based on brain-computer interface technology [4] - Companies such as Liu Steel and Huazhong Steel are experiencing stock fluctuations, with Liu Steel facing potential irrational speculation risks and Huazhong Steel being acquired by a major shareholder [5] - Aerospace Morning Light has regained its qualification for military material engineering service procurement [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the A-share market, highlighting the impact of U.S.-Vietnam trade agreements and the performance of specific sectors, particularly consumer electronics and innovative pharmaceuticals. Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.17%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.9% [5] - The total market turnover was 13,336 billion, a decrease of 716 billion from the previous day, with over 3,200 stocks rising [5] - A total of 66 stocks hit the daily limit up, with 14 stocks achieving consecutive limit ups, the highest being six consecutive limit ups [5] Sector Performance - The consumer electronics sector saw a collective surge, with stocks like Industrial Fulian, New Asia Electronics, and Chaoyang Technology hitting the daily limit up [5] - The PCB sector also rebounded, with stocks such as Zhongjing Electronics, Bomin Electronics, and Yihua New Materials reaching the daily limit up, driven by speculation on future demand for AI-PCB [5] - Innovative pharmaceutical stocks continued their strong performance, with companies like Guosheng Tang and Changchun High-tech also hitting the daily limit up [5] Trade Policy Impact - The U.S. has lifted restrictions on EDA and ethane exports to China, while Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam, which will impose a 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports to the U.S. [1][2] - This policy shift is seen as beneficial for consumer electronics companies with operations in Vietnam, such as Luxshare Precision, which had previously invested in production capacity there [2] Investment Trends - Morgan Stanley's MSCI China Index has risen by 32% over the past year, indicating a recovery in consumer spending and addressing overcapacity issues [7] - The article notes that the current market environment is conducive to a potential supply-side reform, with a focus on key sectors such as automotive, materials, and technology [8][9] Capital Market Dynamics - The article highlights that despite the return to average price-to-earnings ratios, the equity risk premium remains high, suggesting that the Chinese stock market is still undervalued [9] - The low interest rates are expected to continue, with predictions of further rate cuts, which could lead to a shift in investment towards growth stocks as overall return on equity improves [9]

Core Insights - Neuralink has showcased its brain-computer interface (BCI) advancements and a visionary roadmap for the next three years, indicating significant progress in BCI technology [1] - The company aims to create a full-brain interface that can decode brain signals into speech, restore vision, and potentially integrate human consciousness with AI by 2028 [3][4] Group 1: Current Achievements - Seven volunteers have undergone the N1 implant surgery, enabling them to interact with the world despite severe disabilities [2] - The technology focuses on increasing the number of connected neurons and expanding to any part of the brain, enhancing the amount of information that can flow from the brain to the external world [2] Group 2: Future Goals - By Q4 2025, Neuralink plans to implant devices that can decode words from brain signals [3] - The number of electrodes is expected to increase to 3,000 by 2026, allowing the first blind participants to regain vision [3] - By 2028, the goal is to have over 25,000 channels per implant, enabling access to any part of the brain and addressing various mental health issues [3] Group 3: Challenges and Concerns - There are significant technical challenges and skepticism from neuroscientists regarding the feasibility of achieving a full-brain interface by 2028 [4] - Data privacy and security concerns are paramount, as the sensitivity of brainwave data raises questions about potential misuse [4] - The impact of this technology on individual identity and self-perception remains uncertain, prompting discussions on its societal implications [5]

美国哈佛大学领导的研究团队设计并测试了一种称为"赛博胚胎"的柔性电极神经信号记录平台。这是一 种专为发育中的大脑"量身打造"的生物电子平台，可通过胚胎发育实现全脑探针植入。其有望揭示胚胎 是如何随发育逐步建立起神经环路的，以及神经环路与复杂行为之间的关联。该成果在神经科学领域具 有里程碑意义，相关研究作为封面文章发表在新一期《自然》杂志上。 该平台已应用于多种脊椎动物模型，包括非洲爪蟾胚胎、小鼠胚胎和新生大鼠神经系统，在不同物种中 实现了稳定的电生理记录。特别是在脊髓损伤再生实验中，研究团队观察到类似发育过程的神经活动模 式，显示出该系统在再生医学领域的广泛应用前景。 这一成果被认为是首个实现对非透明胚胎中发育期大脑活动进行毫秒级电生理记录的技术突破，为研究 神经发育机制、理解相关疾病以及推动脑机接口技术发展提供了全新工具。 （文章来源：科技日报） 研究团队从发育生物学中获得启发，利用脊椎动物胚胎发育过程中"神经胚形成"阶段的自然变化，将超 薄、可拉伸的电极阵列嵌入胚胎神经板中。随着神经管闭合，电极也随之折叠、展开，最终与三维脑组 织高度整合。实验表明，这一方法不仅实现了无缝集成，还不会干扰大脑的正常发育和功 ...