澳洲联储会议纪要：委员会考虑过是否将利率维持在3.85%不变，或将其下调25个基点。少数支持降息 的观点更关注经济前景和通胀的下行风险。 ...

Market Overview - International gold prices surged significantly on July 21, closing at $3,397.91 per ounce after reaching a high of $3,401.44 [1] - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, increased its holdings by 3.43 tons, bringing the total to 947.06 tons [6] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Conference Board's Leading Economic Index for June recorded a month-on-month decline of -0.3%, worse than the market expectation of -0.2% [2] - The six-month growth rate of the Leading Economic Index weakened, with the diffusion index remaining below 50 for the third consecutive month, signaling a recession [2] - The U.S. GDP growth is projected at 1.6% for the year, with tariffs expected to have a more pronounced impact in the second half [2] Geopolitical Developments - Ukraine and Russia are set to hold the next round of peace talks in Turkey, as stated by Ukrainian President Zelensky [5] - Israel's Foreign Ministry rejected a multi-national joint statement regarding the Gaza conflict, emphasizing Hamas's responsibility for the ongoing violence [5] Federal Reserve Insights - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is at 97.4%, with a 2.6% chance of a 25 basis point cut [6] - The outlook for the U.S. credit rating has been downgraded by Fitch due to increased policy risks and economic slowdown [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the high uncertainty in the global economic outlook and the unpredictability of US trade policies [1] - One reason for not adjusting interest rates is that some data, including inflation, is slightly stronger than expected [1]

Group 1 - Citigroup expects the Bank of England to maintain interest rates unchanged in September, contrary to previous predictions of a rate cut [1] - Citigroup forecasts that the Bank of England will begin a series of rate cuts starting in November 2023, continuing until March 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Director of the National Economic Council, Hassett, emphasizes the need for the Federal Reserve to reassess its interest rate path and clarify the target level for rates [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's current interest rate strategy may require adjustments to align with economic conditions [1] - Clear communication regarding the intended interest rate levels is essential for market stability and economic planning [1]

Group 1 - The Dallas Fed's Logan indicated that policymakers may need to keep interest rates unchanged for a while to fully curb inflation, but also suggested the possibility of rate cuts if inflation and the labor market worsen [1] - Logan emphasized that the current economic situation suggests that monetary policy needs to be maintained for a period to stabilize inflation at target levels, while still achieving full employment with moderate tightening [1] - There is a divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding future actions, with a median forecast in June indicating two rate cuts this year, while some officials expect only one or no cuts at all [1] Group 2 - Recent CPI data showed that core CPI growth in June was below expectations for the fifth consecutive month, but companies are increasingly passing on tariff-related costs to consumers [2] - Logan warned against overconfidence in temporary positive inflation news, citing past instances where initial optimism was followed by inflation rebounds [2] - The independence of the Federal Reserve has been emphasized by Logan and other officials, especially in light of ongoing criticism from Trump regarding interest rate policies [2]

Core Viewpoint - The solid economy has provided the Federal Reserve with time to decide on the next steps for interest rate adjustments [1] Group 1 - The current economic conditions are strong, allowing the Federal Reserve to evaluate its monetary policy options [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold investment rating: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Silver investment rating: ★★★, suggesting a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overnight precious metals showed a volatile performance. Due to the release of US tariff policies with high tax rates and the EU's response to impose additional counter - tariff measures on $72 billion worth of US imported goods if trade negotiations fail, there is still high uncertainty as of the current date. Risk sentiment may fluctuate, and precious metals will mainly trade in a volatile range. Attention should be paid to US CPI data tonight [1] Group 3: Summary of Related Content Tariff - related Information - Trump stated that if Russia fails to reach an agreement on the Russia - Ukraine conflict within 50 days, 100% secondary tariffs will be imposed on Russia. US officials clarified that in addition to the 100% tariff, secondary sanctions will also be imposed on countries purchasing Russian goods [2] - The Brazilian vice - president denied the news that Brazil requested the US to reduce tariffs to 30% and postpone the tariff deadline by 90 days. Brazil will announce a reciprocal counter - tariff decree regarding US tariffs [2] - The EU is preparing to impose counter - tariffs on $72 billion worth of US goods [1][2] - The Thai Ministry of Finance is considering implementing zero - tariff policies on more US imported products [2] - The US Department of Commerce has launched a 232 investigation into the import of drones and polysilicon [2] Interest Rate - related Information - Trump believes that the Fed should lower interest rates below 1%. US White House National Economic Council Director Hasset thinks the Fed should remain independent but is "very wrong" on the tariff issue. Fed's Harker believes there is no urgent need to cut interest rates currently [2]

根据CME"美联储观察"最新数据，美联储7月维持利率不变的概率已升至94.8%。这一数据较此前有所 上升，显示出市场对美联储短期内保持现有货币政策的强烈预期。 据悉，美联储7月降息25个基点的概率仅为5.2%。这一概率的微小变化反映出市场对美联储即将到来的 政策决策有着相对明确的判断。 与此同时，美联储9月的利率决策预期呈现更大的不确定性。维持利率不变的概率为36.9%，而累计降 息25个基点的概率达到60.0%。累计降息50个基点的概率相对较低，为3.2%。 委员会成员表示，经济前景的不确定性虽有所减弱，但仍然居高不下。在考虑进一步调整利率区间的幅 度和时机时，美联储将仔细评估后续经济数据、不断变化的前景以及风险平衡状况。 美联储的这一政策立场反映出其对当前经济形势的审慎评估。维持利率不变有助于支持经济复苏，并避 免过快的利率调整对市场产生冲击。 来源:金融界 这种概率分布表明市场普遍认为美联储可能在秋季开始调整货币政策。从近期数据变化来看，7月14日 时美联储维持利率不变的概率为93.3%，而到7月15日这一概率已上升至94.8%。 美联储在最近公布的会议纪要中明确表示，将继续维持联邦基金利率目标区间在4 ...

美国总统特朗普表示，美联储应将利率降至1%以下。 ...