Good morning, Sarah. Yeah, some good breaking news from the New York Fed with inflation expectations unchanged and labor market indicators improving. Let's go through them.The one-year, the three-year, and the 5-year uh inflation expectations from the New York Fed survey all unchanged. 3 2 3 and three. Now, these are all a bit elevated, but it's good news that they're not going up.Inflation expectations rise for food, gas, medical care, a big increase there, and rent as well. Now, there's fodder for both ha ...

Economic Outlook - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the economy is performing "better than we thought," with a projected 3% real GDP growth for the year, following a 0.6% growth in Q1 and a 3.8% growth in Q2, with Q3 growth estimated at 3.5% by the Atlanta Fed [2][6] - Consumer sentiment is mixed, with the University of Michigan's survey showing a reading of 53.3, which is up 4.5 percentage points from November but down 28 points year over year, potentially influencing the Federal Open Markets Committee to lower interest rates [3] Earnings Reports - Upcoming earnings reports include Toll Brothers, expected to report Q4 earnings of $4.88 per share on $3.3 billion in sales, with AutoZone and Campbell's scheduled for Tuesday, and tech companies Oracle, Adobe, and Synopsys on Wednesday [4]

白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特周一表示，美联储若提前公布未来六个月的利率路径将是"不负责任 的"，他强调货币政策应严格依据经济数据灵活调整。"美联储主席的职责是紧盯数据、适时调整，并解 释为何采取特定行动，"哈塞特说，"如果说'我未来六个月要这么做'，那确实是不负责任的。"作为现任 主席鲍威尔继任的热门人选，哈塞特被问及预计2026年还需降息多少次。他回避具体预测："我不想让 大家失望于对降息次数的猜测，但我可以说，关键是要看数据。"哈塞特称赞鲍威尔在本次会议前有效 协调了FOMC内部意见："我认为他在'管好一屋子猫'方面做得很好，成功凝聚了降息共识。我相信鲍威 尔也认同我的观点——我们可能应该继续降低利率。" 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates at the upcoming meeting despite inflation remaining above target levels, driven by concerns over a weakening labor market [1][8]. Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is anticipated to announce a 25-basis-point interest rate cut, marking the third consecutive meeting with a rate reduction [1]. - Minutes from the last FOMC meeting revealed significant divisions among policymakers regarding the appropriateness of a rate cut, with some expressing concerns about its potential impact on inflation [2]. Market Expectations - Market expectations for a rate cut have fluctuated significantly, with the CME FedWatch tool indicating a 30% probability of a cut on November 19, down from 98% a month prior, but rebounding to 87% as of December 5 due to soft labor market data [3]. Labor Market Conditions - Layoffs announced in 2025 through November reached 1,170,821, the highest for a comparable period since 2020, with the private sector unexpectedly losing 32,000 jobs in November [6][8]. - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with indicators such as rising unemployment, a low hiring rate, and increased layoff announcements [10]. Inflation Metrics - The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, remained elevated at 2.8% for headline PCE and 2.9% for core PCE in September [7]. - Projections suggest core PCE inflation may rise to about 3.2% in early 2026 before declining to around 2.3% by the end of next year [9]. Policymaker Perspectives - Economists note that there are compelling reasons both to cut rates and to hold them, with a potential "hawkish" tone accompanying any cut announcement [12][13]. - Anticipation exists for at least two dissents against a rate cut, as well as one in favor of a larger cut [14].

A divided Federal Reserve meets this week to decide whether to cut interest rates, the US central bank’s last meeting before the end of a tumultuous year.The US central bank faces a number of unique challenges as it weighs its latest interest-rate decision.After the six-week government shutdown briefly shuttered the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the federal agency that collects economic data on prices and employment, Fed officials have less data to make their decision.Making matters more complicated is what a ...

Core Viewpoint - U.S. stock futures indicate a flat to modestly higher opening as the Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut interest rates [1] Group 1 - The upcoming week is significant for the markets due to the expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1]

Core Viewpoint - Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is planning to increase government spending while Japan's central bank is contemplating raising interest rates [1] Group 1: Government Spending - The increase in spending is aimed at stimulating economic growth in Japan [1] - This move may lead to a potential shift in fiscal policy as the government seeks to balance growth with inflation concerns [1] Group 2: Central Bank Policy - The Bank of Japan is considering raising interest rates, which could impact borrowing costs and economic activity [1] - A change in interest rates may influence the effectiveness of the government's spending initiatives [1]

美元指数目前处于10月底以来的低位，这主要受到市场对美联储可能再次调整利率的预期影响。本周美 联储的政策信号成为影响英镑/美元走势的关键因素。交易者普遍采取观望态度，等待更多关于美联储 未来利率路径的明确指引。市场关注焦点集中在即将发布的经济预测更新以及美联储主席在会后新闻发 布会上的表态。 当前阶段，市场认为任何技术性回调都可能成为潜在入场机会，回调幅度预计有限。本周初缺乏重要经 济数据，市场注意力可能转向英国央行货币政策委员会成员的讲话，以寻找短期线索。英镑/美元正处 于关键技术水平附近整理。美元走势受货币政策预期影响，英镑则获得财政政策明朗化支撑。上方阻力 明显，需观察价格能否有效突破移动平均线区域。 未来几个交易日，英镑/美元预计将在现有区间内波动，直至出现新的基本面或技术面催化因素。 英国方面，近期财政预算不确定性的消除为英镑提供了一定支撑。英国财政大臣宣布了一项年度规模达 260亿英镑的财政调整计划，旨在填补财政缺口并建立应对意外情况的缓冲空间。这一举措有助于缓解 市场对英国央行短期内可能调整政策的担忧，从而为英镑/美元汇率提供了基本面支撑。 从技术分析角度来看，英镑/美元目前面临的关键阻力区域在 ...

Core Viewpoint - Markets are anticipating a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting, although some traders are forecasting increased volatility in response to this expectation [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's next meeting is expected to address interest rates, with a consensus leaning towards a cut [1] - Traders are predicting that the market may experience volatility as a result of the anticipated interest rate changes [1]

Key Points The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting is scheduled for Dec. 10. There's a high a probability that interest rates will be cut at that meeting. A reduction in interest rates is generally good news for the stock market. 10 stocks we like better than S&P 500 Index › As of Dec. 1, the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) was up 16% this year. It's an impressive performance when you consider that it was up by more than 20% in each of the previous two years. Despite strong gains in recent years, ...