US stocks pulled back slightly from records on Tuesday as a retail sales update showed Americans continuing to spend despite a weakening labor market and the Senate confirmed President Trump's pick, Stephen Miran, as a Federal Reserve board governor. The benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell less than 0.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) dipped nearly 0.3%. In an otherwise light week on economic data, on Tuesday, investors received the latest figures o ...

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors raises concerns about the independence of the Fed, particularly in light of President Trump's pressure to cut interest rates [3][5]. Group 1: Nomination Process - A procedural vote on Miran's nomination is scheduled for 5:30 p.m. ET, followed by a final confirmation vote at around 8 p.m. [2] - If confirmed, Miran plans to take an unpaid leave from his current role as chair of the White House's Council of Economic Advisors [2]. Group 2: Market Expectations and Fed Independence - Markets anticipate the Fed will cut interest rates for the first time since December 2024, but the extent of the cuts remains uncertain [3]. - Fed Chair Jerome Powell has resisted Trump's pressure but indicated that economic conditions may justify rate cuts at the upcoming meeting [4]. - Critics argue that Miran's appointment could influence the committee's decisions and undermine the Fed's independence from the White House [5]. Group 3: Term and Resignation - Miran was nominated to fill the seat vacated by Governor Adriana Kugler, who resigned in August, and would serve until January 31, when Kugler's term was set to expire [6]. - Miran stated that if he were to be nominated and confirmed for a longer term, he would resign from his current position [6].

Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The Senate is set to vote on President Trump's nominee for the Federal Reserve Board, Steven Myron, with potential confirmation before the Fed's meeting where interest rate cuts are expected [1] - President Trump criticized Fed Chairman Jerome Powell for being late on interest rate cuts, claiming that high rates are negatively impacting the housing market [2][3] - Goldman Sachs anticipates five rate cuts, with three expected this year, indicating a shift in market expectations regarding Fed actions [4][5] Housing Market Dynamics - The housing market is showing signs of life, with an increase in inventory and a decrease in prices across 39 out of 50 metro cities, as reported by K Schiller [9] - President Trump believes that a rate cut could significantly boost the housing market, supported by recent job data indicating a stable labor market [10] - The affordability of homes is a critical issue, with discussions around how financing options affect buyers' decisions [9][24] Labor Market and Economic Indicators - There are concerns about the labor market showing signs of weakness, which could impact the effectiveness of interest rate cuts on housing and overall economic health [26][28] - The trajectory of interest rate changes is deemed more important than the immediate impact of a single rate cut [31][32] Tesla's Market Activity - Elon Musk made headlines by purchasing 2.5 million shares of Tesla for approximately $1 billion, marking his largest purchase since 2020 and signaling confidence in the company's future [34] - The stock price of Tesla rose significantly following Musk's purchase, reflecting positive market sentiment [34][36] - Insider buying is generally viewed as a positive indicator, although the scale of Musk's purchase relative to his wealth raises questions about its impact [39]

Let's now ask New York Life's Lauren Goodwin. She joins us now. Lauren, record highs for the S&P and NASDAQ.It's like a broken record at this point. Did anybody, including yourself, really expect that we were going to see this constant ratcheting up. Not massively so, but a slow meltup of record highs throughout the course of 2025.I don't think so. Especially not after liberation day. And my estimation is that we are likely to see market jitters associated with all the policy change that we've been getting ...

Core Viewpoint - Financial markets are anticipating a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with mixed outlooks for the S&P 500 as it continues its rally [1] Group 1: Analyst Perspectives - Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson highlights risks from weak labor data and slower Fed actions but maintains a long-term bullish outlook, projecting the S&P 500 could rise by 9% to 7,200 points by mid-2026 [2] - JPMorgan warns that the market's resilience may not endure against soft economic indicators, suggesting equities could reassess valuations once the Fed resumes easing [3] - Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus acknowledges a potential near-term dip post-rate decision but expects any weakness to be temporary due to the overall strength of the U.S. economy [4] Group 2: Economic Concerns - Strategists express concerns that a modest rate cut may not sufficiently address signs of economic slowdown, particularly in the labor market, with inflation remaining above the Fed's 2% target [5] - Despite these concerns, the S&P 500 maintains a bullish trend, primarily driven by gains in technology stocks [5]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, with a strong consensus among traders [1] - The upcoming summary of economic projections will provide guidance on the Fed's interest rate outlook for the remainder of the year and into 2026 and 2027, with a debate on whether there will be one or two additional cuts [2] - The previous forecast indicated two cuts with an unemployment rate projected at 4.5% by year-end, suggesting a stable unemployment outlook despite rate cuts [3] Group 2 - The labor market has shown signs of weakness, with payroll employment growth averaging only 30,000 per month over the last three months, raising concerns about potential further deterioration [5][6] - The market anticipates a decline in rates not only this year but also in 2026 and 2027, with federal funds futures indicating a drop to around 3% by the end of next year [7] - There is a belief that the current financial conditions are already very accommodative, and the economy is not in a severe downturn, which may temper the extent of future rate cuts [8] Group 3 - The market perceives the reasons for cutting rates as compelling, with inflation impacts from tariffs being smaller than expected and labor market weakness being significant [11] - There is uncertainty regarding how far the Fed will go with rate cuts in the medium to long term, with some market participants potentially being overly optimistic [12] - The influence of the Trump administration on the Fed's independence could lead to lower rates but also higher inflation [13] Group 4 - The upcoming meeting is expected to have a consensus on the direction of rates, with minimal dissent anticipated regarding the decision to cut rates [16][17] - The presence of diverse views within the Federal Reserve is seen as beneficial for robust debate on monetary policy frameworks [18] - The dynamics of the meeting involve discussions on the economy and monetary policy, with all members reviewing the same information, leading to generally small disagreements [20][22]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is preparing for a potentially chaotic meeting, with uncertainty surrounding the number of voting officials due to ongoing court rulings and Senate votes [1][2] - The Fed is expected to vote on interest rate cuts, with futures markets pricing in three cuts for the year, despite inflation remaining above the 2% target [3][4] - The outcome of the meeting may depend on the approval of CEA Chair Steven Myron and the potential for dissenting opinions regarding the extent of rate cuts [5][10] Group 2 - Market reactions to the Fed's decisions are anticipated to be influenced by the guidance provided during the meeting and the overall sentiment regarding inflation concerns [7][8] - There is speculation about how individual votes may impact the average outlook of the Fed, with particular attention to any extreme forecasts that could shift market expectations [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. stock-market futures are stable as investors anticipate the Federal Reserve's first interest-rate cut in nine months later this week [1] Group 1 - Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting for potential changes in interest rates [1]

Core Insights - Financial markets have exhibited unusual behavior following the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, which hinted at potential rate cuts [1] - Gold has emerged as a significant safe haven asset, experiencing a price increase of nearly 10% and closing at $3,680.70 per ounce [2] - The bond market's reaction has been unexpected, with the 30-year Treasury yield not falling immediately after Powell's speech, only declining after a weak jobs report [3] Market Reactions - The S&P 500 and commodity prices did not respond as anticipated to the prospect of rate cuts, contrasting with the expected market behavior [2] - The dollar index has remained stable, returning to pre-speech levels, which is considered counterintuitive given the expectations for Fed easing [3] - Bitcoin's volatility has led to a sell-off post-Jackson Hole, but it has also returned to its starting point, diverging from its previous behavior as a risk asset [4] Global Economic Factors - Concerns over a potential debt crisis in France and the U.K. have contributed to rising global bond yields, with political gridlock in France affecting fiscal discipline [4] - Fitch's downgrade of France's credit rating from AA- to A+ reflects the challenges in achieving fiscal discipline, potentially driving investors towards safe-haven assets like the dollar [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point on Wednesday [1] Group 1 - The decision to cut interest rates is widely expected in the financial markets [1]