Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The tariff issue continues to disrupt the market, causing significant fluctuations in risk assets. The suspension of reciprocal tariffs by the US has led to a rapid increase in market risk appetite, but the escalation of China-US tariffs is beneficial for gold. - The US dollar index has weakened due to the suspension of reciprocal tariffs on most countries by Trump, and it is expected to remain volatile in the short term. - The stock index futures market has been boosted by China's tariff countermeasures against the US, but the subsequent macro - level changes will increase market volatility. - The commodity market is generally under pressure. The prices of palm oil, coal, iron ore, and some energy - chemical products are affected by various factors such as market sentiment, supply - demand relationships, and tariff policies. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Event: Trump approved a 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on over 75 countries, during which the reciprocal tariffs will be reduced to 10%. - Review: Gold prices soared by over 3%, once rising by over $100, setting a record for the largest single - day increase. The suspension of tariffs increased market risk appetite, but the escalation of China - US tariffs is beneficial for gold. Gold is a good tool to hedge against the decline in the US dollar's credit. - Investment advice: Adopt a bullish approach in the short - term volatile market [14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Event: Summers warned that the US is far from out of danger and has lost a lot of credibility. The Fed meeting minutes showed that the US economy faces risks. Trump suspended reciprocal tariffs on most countries. - Review: The suspension of tariffs led to a significant rebound in market risk appetite, causing the US dollar index to weaken. The reciprocal tariffs are in a temporary adjustment phase, and the US dollar index is expected to remain volatile. - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to be volatile in the short term [15][16][17]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Event: China increased tariffs on US imports from 34% to 84%. The Fed meeting minutes showed that inflation is slightly high and economic uncertainty has increased. Trump suspended tariffs on some countries but raised tariffs on China to 125%. - Review: The China - US tariff negotiation is at a deadlock, and policy uncertainty remains high. The financial market is volatile, and the risk of a liquidity shock has not been eliminated. - Investment advice: Adopt a bearish approach and avoid chasing high prices [20][21][22]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Event: The Chinese Premier held a symposium on the economic situation. China increased tariffs on US imports from 34% to 84%. - Review: The A - share market rebounded, and market sentiment was boosted. However, subsequent macro - level changes will increase market volatility. - Investment advice: Adopt a risk - averse approach in the short term [23][24][26]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - Event: China released a white paper on China - US economic and trade relations. The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 111 billion yuan. - Review: The main logic of the treasury bond market is clear. The probability of a short - term easing of trade conflicts is low, and the expectation of loose monetary policy is difficult to be falsified. The upward trend of treasury bonds is likely to continue. - Investment advice: Hold positions and wait for the implementation of loose policies, or add positions on dips [27][28][29]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Event: Indonesian palm oil industry and farmer groups urged the government to reduce export tariffs to 0% to offset the impact of US tariffs. - Review: The global market sentiment is low, and the price of palm oil has fallen. China's counter - tariffs on the US may be beneficial for far - month soybean oil. The possibility of Indonesia reducing palm oil export tariffs is low. - Investment advice: Consider closing previous short positions and pay attention to the MPOB report [30][31]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Event: As of the end of March, China's commercial cotton inventory decreased, and India's cotton planting area may increase. The CCI has purchased a large amount of cotton, and its sales volume is not high. - Review: The CCI's purchase and sales situation, as well as the trade war, may affect India's cotton production, consumption, and import estimates. The price of Zhengzhou cotton has fallen, but the decline may slow down. - Investment advice: The cotton price is expected to be weakly volatile. Pay attention to macro - policies, planting, weather, and industry conditions in major producing countries [32][35][37]. 2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Event: China's coal demand is expected to increase slightly in 2025. - Review: The coal price has been relatively stable. The power plant's inventory is at a neutral level, and the price is expected to be supported in May but lacks elasticity. - Investment advice: The power plant may replenish coal inventory in May, but the price increase is limited [38]. 2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Event: JFE Steel in Japan plans to shut down a blast furnace, reducing its annual crude steel production capacity by about 4 million tons. - Review: The black metal market has continued to decline, but the short - term deterioration of fundamentals is not severe. Pay attention to the risk of liquidity. - Investment advice: Maintain a bearish approach and wait for a better opportunity to short after a rebound [39][40][41]. 2.5 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - Event: The coking coal market in East China has remained stable. Some coal mines in Shanxi have reduced production, and downstream coke enterprises have started to increase prices. - Review: The coking coal spot market has improved, but the futures market faces pressure. The coke spot market may continue to increase prices, but the medium - long - term supply is expected to be loose. - Investment advice: The spot market has stabilized, but the futures market faces pressure from subsequent demand and warehouse receipts [42][43]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Event: The operating rate of corn starch enterprises has decreased significantly, but inventory has only decreased slightly. - Review: High raw material prices and weak downstream demand have led to a decrease in the operating rate. The futures price difference between corn starch and corn is expected to remain stable. - Investment advice: The CS05 - C05 price difference is expected to remain around the normal processing fee of 380 yuan [44][45][47]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Event: The inventory at northern ports has decreased for two consecutive weeks, and the price of corn in the production area is relatively firm. - Review: The outflow of corn from Northeast China has accelerated, and the weak basis has suppressed the futures price. The 07 contract is considered undervalued. - Investment advice: Maintain the view that the 07 contract is undervalued and pay attention to whether the acceleration of inventory reduction in Northeast China can boost trader sentiment [48]. 2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Event: The retail sales of passenger cars in March increased significantly year - on - year. - Review: The steel price has rebounded, and market sentiment has improved. However, the demand for building materials is weak, and the demand for hot - rolled coils is declining slowly. - Investment advice: Adopt a cautious approach in the short term and hedge on the spot market when prices are high [49][50][51]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Event: The sales volume of three major listed pig enterprises increased in March, and the average selling price slightly increased. - Review: The short - term fluctuation of pig prices has increased, but it will eventually return to the fundamental situation. The spot price may face downward pressure. - Investment advice: Continuously pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [52][53][54]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Event: Yunnan Nengtou Group's Yongchang Silicon's 100,000 - ton hydropower silicon project was put into operation. Some production capacity in Xinjiang was reduced, and some new production capacity in the southwest is expected to be put into operation. - Review: The supply has decreased, but the demand is weak, and the fundamental situation of industrial silicon is difficult to change. - Investment advice: The futures price may range from 9,000 to 10,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds and Si2511 - Si2512 reverse arbitrage opportunities [55][56][57]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - Event: The LME lead spread was at a discount, and the price of refined lead decreased. - Review: The lead price is expected to be volatile in the short term. Although the medium - term outlook is bullish, macro risks have not been eliminated. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term and look for buying opportunities on dips. Continue to hold the internal - external reverse arbitrage [58][59][60]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Event: The blockade of Glencore's Antapaccay copper mine in Peru was suspended. Codelco plans to significantly increase copper production this year. Indonesia will increase mining royalties. - Review: The short - term macro factors have a relatively uncertain impact on copper prices. The short - term supply and demand in China are strong, and the inventory is expected to decrease. - Investment advice: The copper price is expected to be volatile in the short term. Adopt a wait - and - see approach and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities in Shanghai copper [61][62][64]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Event: The LME zinc spread was at a discount, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference widened. - Review: The zinc price is mainly affected by macro factors. The market is cautious, and the export of zinc may be suppressed. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the medium term. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage [65][66][67]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Event: An Australian company produced the first batch of lithium carbonate in Argentina. Argentina plans to increase lithium production by 75% in 2025. - Review: The current fundamentals of lithium carbonate are bearish, and the price may continue to decline in the long term. - Investment advice: Consider partial profit - taking on short positions in the short term and pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the long term [68][69][70]. 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Event: Indonesia will increase mining and coal royalties in the second week of April. - Review: The nickel price has slightly decreased, and the cost is expected to increase marginally. The market may digest negative sentiment. - Investment advice: Pay attention to buying opportunities on dips after the release of negative sentiment [71][72]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Event: China increased tariffs on US imports to 84%. The US C3 inventory started to accumulate. - Review: The PG price has decreased, but it may strengthen due to the increase in tariffs and the recovery of crude oil prices. However, policy uncertainty should be noted. - Investment advice: The domestic market may experience a valuation - repair market, but reduce risk exposure and participate cautiously [73][74][75]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Event: The US EIA crude oil inventory increased. Trump announced the suspension of reciprocal tariffs. - Review: The oil price has rebounded, but there is still a risk of decline due to the uncertainty of the tariff issue and the OPEC+ production policy. - Investment advice: The oil price is expected to be volatile in the short term and still has a downward risk [76]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - Event: The tariff war has escalated, and the demand for PTA is uncertain. - Review: The PTA price has decreased, and the demand for polyester is affected by tariffs. The impact on PTA pricing is relatively lagged. - Investment advice: The PTA price will mainly follow the crude oil price in the short term and is expected to be weakly volatile [77][78]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - Event: The inventory of styrene in the East China main port decreased. - Review: The styrene price has reached a new low and then rebounded. The downstream inventory may accumulate, and the production profit may not be sustainable. - Investment advice: The eb - bz spread may expand in the short term and contract in the long term [78][79]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - Event: The price of high - concentration caustic soda in Shandong decreased, and the supply was stable while the demand was weak. - Review: The caustic soda price is expected to decline, and the market is mainly affected by macro factors in the short term. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [80][82][83]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - Event: The price of imported wood pulp decreased. - Review: The pulp price is mainly affected by macro factors, and the market is bearish. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [84]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - Event: The spot price of PVC powder decreased. - Review: The PVC price is mainly affected by macro factors, and the market is bearish. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [85]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Event: The export price of bottle chips decreased, and a polyester bottle chip device in East China restarted. - Review: The bottle chip price has decreased, and the processing fee has been passively repaired, but it is difficult to break away from the low - level oscillation range. - Investment advice: The bottle chip price will follow the cost side and be weakly volatile in the short term [86][88][89]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Event: The price of soda ash in the East China market was adjusted slightly. - Review: The soda ash price is in a low - level oscillation, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand is general. - Investment advice: Adopt a short - selling approach on rebounds in the medium term [90]. 2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - Event: The price of float glass in Hubei remained stable. - Review: The float glass price is mainly affected by demand. Although there may be an improvement in the second - quarter demand, the upward space is limited. - Investment advice: The float glass price will be in a low - level range in the short term. Pay attention to buying opportunities on large dips [91][92][93].

据国内媒体援引外媒报道，当前美国的交易商正在面对达到历史最高水平的贵金属库存欲哭无 泪。自2024年11月以来， 美国的黄金库存增加了2650万盎司， 白银库存增加1.746亿盎司。 按照当前价格计算，全球"搬运工"运入美国的贵金属总价值接近800亿美元。考虑到目前在途的 货物，至少4月还会有大量贵金属涌入美国的仓库。 汇丰银行在一份报告中称，虽然黄金的反弹势头可能会在上半年推动价格上涨，但到2025年年 底， 实物和金融市场的综合因素可能会给黄金带来压力 ，该行预测黄金的平均价格为3015美 图片来源：周生生官网 消息面上，4月3日，上金所发布《关于继续加强近期市场防范风险工作的通知》指出，近期影响 市场运行的不确定性因素较多，贵金属价格持续大幅波动，市场风险加剧。节假日临近，请各会 员提高风险防范意识，继续做细做好风险应急预案，维护市场平稳运行，提示投资者做好风险防 范工作，合理控制仓位，理性投资。 点击在 看 持续关注↓↓↓ 元。 特朗普砸下关税大棒，中美两国商人"塌了同一片天" 【 热门视频推荐 】 恐慌蔓延！美股正在暴跌，七姐妹市值蒸发6万亿 来源丨中国经营报综合自央视财经、《齐鲁晚报》、环球网 当 ...

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Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 1.93 billion yuan and an adjusted net loss of 2.08 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2024, marking its largest loss since going public in 2019 [2][3] - The loss was attributed to significant goodwill impairment, investment impairment, and other non-operating expenses, alongside delays in the launch of key self-developed games, particularly "Sword of the Immortal World" [3][4] IP Acquisition and Development - The goodwill impairment primarily stemmed from multiple acquisitions to secure the "Sword" IP rights, including a 213 million yuan purchase of a 51% stake in Beijing Softstar in 2018 and a 642 million HKD acquisition of a 49% stake in 2021 [4] - The total investment in "Sword of the Immortal World," including development costs exceeding 300 million yuan, has surpassed 1 billion yuan, yet the game failed to meet market expectations [5] Game Performance and Market Challenges - "Sword of the Immortal World" launched on February 19, 2024, but only ranked 97th on the iOS game sales chart on its first day and quickly fell out of the top 200 [6] - The game received over 1,000 negative reviews on TapTap, significantly outnumbering positive feedback, indicating poor player reception [6][7] Industry Context - The gaming industry is facing heightened market risks, with companies like the subject company reflecting broader challenges within the sector [8][10] - The domestic gaming market has reached a saturation point, with major players intensifying competition for existing users, leaving less room for smaller developers [10][11] IP Lifecycle and Consumer Expectations - The "Sword" IP is entering a generational transition, with player expectations not being met due to perceived issues in gameplay, graphics, and overall quality [13][15] - Similar challenges are observed with other established IPs, such as the "Condor Heroes," which also struggled to maintain player interest despite significant investment [14][15] Future Prospects - The company identified mini-games as a potential bright spot, with the mini-game "Spring and Autumn Mysteries" achieving over 100 million in revenue and high retention rates since its launch [18][19] - However, the increasing competition in the mini-game sector raises concerns about the sustainability of this segment as more companies enter the market [20]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a "震荡" (fluctuating) rating for the dollar in the short term, with expectations of a 5% to 15% increase over the next 1-3 months [39]. Core Insights - Market risk appetite continues to decline, with most stock markets experiencing downturns and bond yields generally falling, as evidenced by the U.S. Treasury yield dropping to 4.21% [9][11]. - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.94% to 107.6, while all non-U.S. currencies depreciated, including a 0.54% drop in offshore RMB and a 2.1% decline in Brent crude oil to $73.4 per barrel [9][25][28]. - The imposition of tariffs by Trump on non-energy imports from Mexico and Canada at 25% and an additional 10% on China is expected to further suppress market risk appetite [2][32]. Summary by Sections Global Market Overview - The report highlights a continued decline in market risk appetite, with most stock markets down and bond yields falling, particularly the U.S. Treasury yield at 4.21% [9][11]. - The dollar index increased by 0.94% to 107.6, while gold prices fell by 2.7% to $2858 per ounce, and the VIX index rose to 19.6 [9][28]. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance - Stock markets globally are mostly retreating, with the S&P 500 down 0.98% and the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.72% [10][11]. - Economic data shows signs of weakening, with new home sales in January annualized at 657,000, below expectations of 680,000 [11]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains on hold, with hawkish comments suggesting a need for higher interest rates [2][11]. Hotspot Tracking - The report notes an increase in tariff pressures from Trump, which is expected to have significant implications for market dynamics and economic conditions [3][32].