1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply pressure decreased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase significantly next week as maintenance is expected to decrease [7]. - Current demand may remain sluggish, with the overall downstream operating rate below historical average levels, except for the film and paste resin sectors which are above historical average levels but still showing a decline [8]. - The cost of calcium carbide method is strengthening, while that of ethylene method is weakening, with the overall cost strengthening. The overall inventory is at a neutral level. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4962 - 5036 [9]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positives include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. Negatives include a rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [12]. - The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - **Supply Side**: In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 77.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 328,255 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.94%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 136,560 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.04% [7]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 37.65%, a month - on - month increase of 0.74 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 33.61%, a month - on - month increase of 0.649 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 70.77%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.09 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 77.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.43 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive [8]. - **Cost Side**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 222.7577 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 3.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 591.501 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 9.60% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2,753.65 yuan/ton, with the profit increasing by 0.90% month - on - month, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Other Aspects**: The main position is net short with an increase in shorts. The basis on August 26th showed that the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,840 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 159 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Factory inventory decreased by 6.32% month - on - month, with calcium carbide method factory inventory decreasing by 6.10% and ethylene method factory inventory decreasing by 7.05%. Social inventory increased by 3.08% month - on - month. The inventory days of production enterprises decreased by 5.55% month - on - month. The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [8][9][10]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report provides detailed data on yesterday's PVC market, including prices, spreads, inventory, operating rates, and production of different types of PVC (calcium carbide method and ethylene method), as well as various cost and profit indicators [15]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend The report presents the historical trend of the basis, PVC East China market price, and the main contract closing price from 2022 to 2025 [17][18]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 9 and 5 - 9 spreads of PVC futures from 2024 to 2025 [23][24]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Related Factors - **Lancoke**: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily production of Lancoke from 2022 to 2025 [26][27]. - **Calcium Carbide**: It shows the price, cost - profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and production of calcium carbide from 2019 to 2025 [29][30]. - **Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: It provides the price, production of liquid chlorine, and the price, monthly production of raw salt from 2019 to 2025 [31][32]. - **Caustic Soda**: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, inventory of caustic soda, and the profit of the chlor - alkali industry from 2019 to 2025 [33][34][35][36]. 3.6 PVC Fundamental - Supply Trend - It shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of calcium carbide method and ethylene method PVC from 2018 to 2025 [37][38][39][40]. 3.7 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - It includes the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, weekly production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rates (profile, pipe, film, paste resin) of PVC, as well as the investment, construction, new construction, sales, and completion data of the real estate industry, and some macro - economic indicators such as social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment year - on - year from 2018 to 2025 [42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54]. 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Inventory It presents the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days from 2019 to 2025 [55][56]. 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method It shows the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and some price spreads (ethylene method FOB spread, vinyl chloride import spread) from 2018 to 2025 [57][58]. 3.10 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet It provides the export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025 [60][61].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The short - term price of coking coal is expected to be strong. Although the production of coking enterprises in some areas is restricted due to the approaching parade, the rigid demand for coking coal is strongly supported by the high level of steel mill hot metal and the increased production enthusiasm of coking enterprises after seven rounds of coke price increases [2]. - The short - term trend of coke is expected to be stable and slightly strong. The supply - demand pattern of the coke market remains tight as steel mill arrivals are delayed and environmental protection restrictions continue to suppress coking enterprise operations [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal Fundamental Analysis - The supply from mines is frequently disturbed, and the increase in coking coal supply is limited. The online auction results of coking coal vary, with some coal types failing to be sold, and the prices of traded coal types fluctuate slightly. Mines have strong price - holding intentions due to low inventory and the background of continued coke price increases [2]. Basis Analysis - The spot market price is 1190, and the basis is 29.5, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2]. Inventory Analysis - The total sample inventory of coking coal is 1890.7 million tons, a decrease of 28.1 million tons from last week, including 805.8 million tons in steel mills, 255.5 million tons in ports, and 829.4 million tons in independent coking enterprises [2]. Market Analysis - The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average [2]. Position Analysis - The main coking coal contract has a net short position, and short positions are increasing [2]. Factors - Bullish factors: rising hot metal production and limited supply growth [4]. - Bearish factors: slower procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. Coke Fundamental Analysis - After the seventh price increase, the profits of coking enterprises have been significantly repaired, and production enthusiasm is high. However, due to recent parade environmental protection policies, many coking enterprises have implemented production restrictions, and the start - up rate has declined. There is no inventory pressure under downstream demand support [5]. Basis Analysis - The spot market price is 1640, and the basis is - 41, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [5]. Inventory Analysis - The total sample inventory of coke is 864.2 million tons, a decrease of 17.9 million tons from last week, including 609.8 million tons in steel mills, 215.1 million tons in ports, and 39.3 million tons in independent coking enterprises [5]. Market Analysis - The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day moving average [5]. Position Analysis - The main coke contract has a net short position, and short positions are increasing [5]. Factors - Bullish factors: rising hot metal production and synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [7]. - Bearish factors: squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [7]. Price - On August 26 (17:30), the prices of imported coking coal from Russia and Australia at different ports are provided, with some prices showing fluctuations [8]. - On August 26 (17:30), the prices of port metallurgical coke at different ports and of different grades are provided, with some prices rising and some falling [9]. Inventory Port Inventory - Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 million tons, a decrease of 10.2 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 million tons, an increase of 17 million tons from last week [19]. Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory - Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory is 844.1 million tons, an increase of 2.9 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 million tons, a decrease of 3.6 million tons from last week [24]. Steel Mill Inventory - Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [28]. Other Data - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [41]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [45].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term, mid - term, and intraday views of rebar 2510 are to be cautious about the pressure at the MA10 line, with short - term and intraday being weakly volatile and mid - term being volatile. The core logic is that the fundamentals are poor and steel prices are under pressure [2]. - In the short term, under the dominance of negative factors, steel prices are expected to continue the weakly volatile trend, and attention should be paid to demand changes [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term view is weakly volatile, the mid - term is volatile, and the intraday is weakly volatile. The view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line, and the core logic is the poor fundamentals putting pressure on steel prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply of rebar has shrunk, but the sustainability of profit per ton is questionable. Demand is weak, and high - frequency indicators are at a low level. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar in the off - season are still poor, but the cost increase restricts the downward space. In the short term, steel prices are expected to continue the weakly volatile trend, and attention should be paid to demand changes [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - From the supply side, in August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased, the output of sample enterprises decreased, and the estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise devices increased. Next week, the supply pressure may decrease [8]. - From the demand side, the current demand is lower than the historical average level. The construction of various types of asphalt and related downstream industries shows different trends, with some开工 rates decreasing and some remaining flat [8]. - From the cost side, the daily asphalt processing profit is negative, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries decreased. The processing loss of asphalt increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken [9]. - The basis shows that on August 25, 2025, the spot price in Shandong was 3,520 yuan/ton, and the basis of the October contract was 8 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, showing a neutral situation [9]. - In terms of inventory, the social inventory decreased, the factory inventory increased, and the port diluted asphalt inventory decreased [9]. - The disk shows that the MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the October contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish trend [9]. - The main positions are net long, changing from short to long, showing a bullish trend [9]. - It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2510 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3,490 - 3,534 [9]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support [11]. - The bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - price goods and the overall downward demand, along with the strengthened expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: The planned production volume in August 2025 decreased month - on - month, and this week's production - related indicators such as capacity utilization rate and output decreased, while the maintenance volume increased [8]. - Demand: The current demand is lower than the historical average, with different trends in the开工 rates of various types of asphalt and related downstream industries [8]. - Cost: The asphalt processing profit is negative, and the delayed coking profit decreased. Crude oil weakening weakens the cost support [9]. - Basis: The spot is at a premium to the futures, showing a neutral situation [9]. - Inventory: Social inventory decreased, factory inventory increased, and port inventory decreased [9]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the October contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish trend [9]. - Main Positions: Net long, changing from short to long, showing a bullish trend [9]. - Expectation: Narrow - range fluctuation in the short term, with the asphalt 2510 contract fluctuating between 3,490 - 3,534 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - This part provides data on the price, inventory, and other indicators of different asphalt contracts, including changes in prices, inventory quantities, and their corresponding month - on - month and year - on - year changes [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - It presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 [19]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [22]. - **Asphalt and Crude Oil Price Trends**: It displays the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [25]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It presents the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil crack spreads from 2020 to 2025 [28]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trends**: It shows the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [33]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - It shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [35]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: It presents the historical trends of asphalt profit and the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [37][41]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical trends of weekly shipment volume from 2020 to 2025 [44]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It presents the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [46]. - **Production Volume**: It shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly production volume from 2019 to 2025 [49]. - **Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Volume Trends**: It presents the historical trends of Marine crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production volume from 2018 to 2025 [54]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production Volume**: It shows the historical trends of local refinery asphalt production volume from 2019 to 2025 [56]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: It presents the historical trends of asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2025 [59]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: It shows the historical trends of estimated maintenance loss volume from 2018 to 2025 [61]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: It presents the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 [66]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 [68]. - **Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: It presents the historical trends of the factory inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 [71]. - **Import and Export Analysis**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt export, import, and the import price spread of South Korean asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [74][77]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production Volume**: It shows the historical trends of petroleum coke production volume from 2019 to 2025 [80]. - **Apparent Consumption Volume**: It presents the historical trends of apparent consumption volume from 2019 to 2025 [83]. - **Downstream Demand**: It shows the historical trends of downstream demand indicators such as highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year, asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, etc. from 2019 to 2025 [87][90]. - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: It presents the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate, asphalt capacity utilization rate by use, and downstream capacity utilization rate (including various types of modified asphalt and waterproofing membrane) from 2019 to 2025 [95][98][101]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from 2025, including data on downstream demand, inventory, import, export, and production volume [106].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: August 26, 2025 [1] - Research subject: Asphalt - Core view: Asphalt cracking continues to weaken [1] Group 2: Fundamental Tracking Futures Market - BU2509 yesterday's closing price was 3,545 yuan/ton, up 0.71%, and night - session closing price was 3,549 yuan/ton, up 0.11%. Trading volume was 5,925 lots, a decrease of 240 lots, and open interest was 15,517 lots, a decrease of 2,366 lots [2] - BU2510 yesterday's closing price was 3,512 yuan/ton, up 0.83%, and night - session closing price was 3,528 yuan/ton, up 0.46%. Trading volume was 169,612 lots, an increase of 30,160 lots, and open interest was 191,301 lots, a decrease of 17,115 lots [2] - Total asphalt market yesterday's warehouse receipts were 72,650 lots, with no change [2] Spread - The basis (Shandong - 09) was - 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2] - The 09 - 10 inter - period spread was 33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2] - The Shandong - South China spread was 40, an increase of 20 compared to the previous day [2] - The East China - South China spread was 240 yuan/ton, with no change [2] Spot Market - Shandong wholesale price was 3,520 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton, the factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,626 yuan/ton, and the warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,763 yuan/ton [2] - Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,720 yuan/ton, with no change, the factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,735 yuan/ton, and the warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,791 yuan/ton [2] Operating and Inventory Rates - As of August 25, the refinery operating rate was 36.67%, a decrease of 0.25% compared to August 21 [2] - As of August 25, the refinery inventory rate was 27.15%, a decrease of 0.66% compared to August 21 [2] Group 3: Trend Intensity - Asphalt trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively neutral market sentiment [9] Group 4: Market Information - In September 2025, domestic asphalt total planned production is 2.686 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 273,000 tons (11.3%) and a year - on - year increase of 683,000 tons (34.1%) [15] - From August 19 - 25, 2025, domestic asphalt weekly total production was 525,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26,000 tons (4.7%) and a year - on - year increase of 63,000 tons (13.6%). The cumulative production from January to August was 2.0128 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 187,400 tons (10.3%) [15] - As of August 25, 2025, the total inventory of 54 asphalt sample factory warehouses was 733,000 tons, a decrease of 2.7% compared to August 21. Shandong had the largest de - stocking in factory warehouses [15] - As of August 25, 2025, the total inventory of 104 asphalt social warehouses was 1.784 million tons, remaining stable compared to August 21. Shandong had obvious inventory accumulation in social warehouses, while Northeast China had obvious de - stocking [15][16]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Spiral Steel and Hot Rolled Coil Morning Report (2025-8-25) [1] - Analyst: Hu Yuxiu from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] - Contact Information: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - **For Threaded Steel (Rebar)**: The fundamentals show weak demand, low - level inventory with a slight decrease, and weak purchasing willingness among traders. The downstream real - estate industry is in a downward cycle. With a positive basis, inventory in 35 major cities is increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year. The price is below the 20 - day line which is downward, and the main position is net short with an increase in short positions. Expecting high - level oscillations considering the weak real - estate market, cooling demand, and domestic capacity - reduction plans [2]. - **For Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both supply and demand have weakened, inventory continues to decrease, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may play a role. With a positive basis, inventory in 33 major cities is increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year. The price is below the 20 - day line which is downward, and the main position is net short with a decrease in short positions. Also expecting high - level oscillations due to weakened market supply and demand, blocked exports, and domestic capacity - reduction plans [6]. Group 4: Factors Analysis For Threaded Steel (Rebar) - **Positive Factors**: Low production and inventory levels, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations [3] - **Negative Factors**: Continued downward cycle in the downstream real - estate industry and weak terminal demand lower than the same period [3] For Hot - Rolled Coil - **Positive Factors**: Fair demand, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations [7] - **Negative Factors**: Downstream demand entering the seasonal off - season with a pessimistic outlook [8] Group 5: Data Indicators Price - related - Threaded steel spot price: 3300 [2] - Hot - rolled coil spot price: 3420 [6] - Other price data includes Southeast Asian prices for threaded steel and hot - rolled coil, Tangshan billet price, and domestic scrap steel comprehensive price [15][18][23] Production - related - Data on blast furnace operating rate, threaded steel short - process electric furnace operating rate, threaded steel weekly output, and hot - rolled coil weekly output are presented [29][32][35] Profit - related - Data on threaded steel and hot - rolled coil disk profit, threaded steel blast furnace estimated profit, construction steel electric furnace estimated profit, and hot - rolled coil blast furnace estimated profit are provided [41][44][46] Inventory - related - Data on threaded steel and hot - rolled coil social and steel mill inventories are included [52][55][58] Consumption - related - Data on threaded steel and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption, apparent consumption year - on - year, and inventory - to - consumption ratio are presented [64][69][73] Market - related - Data on building materials trading volume, real - estate development investment and sales area (cumulative year - on - year), housing new construction, construction, and completion area (cumulative year - on - year), manufacturing PMI, steel monthly export data, and cement price are provided [74][77][81]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 01 contract showed a downward trend. Next week, demand may remain sluggish, and with a reduction in expected maintenance and a significant increase in expected production scheduling, the market may experience narrow - range adjustments [5][6] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Review and Outlook - This week, the 01 contract declined, with an opening price of 5103 yuan/ton on Monday and a closing price of 5019 yuan/ton on Friday, a weekly decline of 1.64% [5] - In terms of supply, in July 2025, PVC production was 2004610 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.60%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 77.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 percentage points. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase significantly [5] - In terms of demand, the overall downstream operating rate was 42.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points, lower than the historical average. It is expected that demand will remain sluggish next week [5] - In terms of cost, the profit of the calcium carbide method was - 222.7577 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month reduction in losses of 3.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 591.501 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 9.60%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2675.25 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 0.50%, higher than the historical average [6] - Factory inventory decreased by 6.32% month - on - month, while social inventory increased by 3.08% month - on - month. The overall inventory is at a neutral level [6] 3.2 PVC Futures Market - **Base - price trend**: Relevant data and trend charts are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [9][10] - **Price and volume trends**: The price and trading volume trends of the main contract from July 22 to August 22, 2025, are shown, along with the trends of moving averages and the net position changes of the top 5/20 seats [13] - **Spread analysis**: The spread trends of the main contract from 2024 to 2025 are presented, including 1 - 9 spreads, 5 - 9 spreads, etc. [16] 3.3 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium carbide method - related aspects**: - **Lancoke**: Data on Lancoke prices, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily production are presented [19] - **Calcium carbide**: Data on calcium carbide prices, cost - profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and production are presented [22] - **Liquid chlorine and raw salt**: Data on liquid chlorine prices, production, raw salt prices, and monthly production are presented [25] - **Caustic soda**: Data on caustic soda prices, cost - profit, operating rate, production, maintenance volume, inventory, apparent consumption, double - ton price difference, etc., are presented [27][30] - **PVC supply trends**: Data on calcium carbide method and ethylene method capacity utilization rates, production profits, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and overall capacity utilization rates are presented [32][34] - **Demand trends**: - **Overall demand indicators**: Data on daily trader sales volume, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream average operating rate are presented [37][38] - **Downstream product operating rates**: Data on the operating rates of PVC profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin are presented [41] - **Paste resin**: Data on paste resin gross profit, cost, monthly production, and apparent consumption are presented [43] - **Real estate and macro - economic indicators**: Data on real estate investment completion, housing construction area, new construction area, sales area, completion area, as well as social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) year - on - year are presented [46][49] - **Inventory**: Data on exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory warehouse, ethylene method factory warehouse, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days are presented [51] - **Ethylene method**: Data on vinyl chloride and dichloroethane imports, PVC exports, ethylene method FOB spreads, and vinyl chloride import spreads are presented [53] - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: Data on exports, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and imports from June 2024 to July 2025 are presented [56] 3.4 Technical Analysis - This week, the main 01 contract showed a downward trend, and it is expected to experience narrow - range adjustments next week [61]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - The current supply pressure of asphalt remains high, with refineries reducing production recently to ease the pressure. The overall demand recovery is weak, and the current demand is lower than the historical average. The cost is supported by the strengthening of crude oil in the short - term. It is expected that the asphalt market will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with the asphalt 2510 contract oscillating in the range of 3461 - 3505 [7][8]. - The bullish factors include the relatively high level of crude oil cost providing some support. The bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt is 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 32.838%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.40 percentage points. The weekly shipments of sample enterprises are 237,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.50%. The sample enterprise output is 548,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.80%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise devices is 648,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.15%. Refineries have reduced production this week, and the supply pressure may decrease next week [7]. - **Demand Side**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 30.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.07 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of building asphalt is 18.2%, flat month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of modified asphalt is 16.9855%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.11 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The construction rate of road - modified asphalt is 28.33%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.17 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of waterproofing membranes is 30.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.90 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 591.75 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.70%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 788.4443 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.78%. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreases. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the market in the short - term [8]. - **Basis**: On August 22, the spot price in Shandong was 3500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 17 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a neutral situation [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 1,292,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.79%. The in - plant inventory is 716,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.70%. The port diluted asphalt inventory is 150,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.05%. The social inventory is continuously decreasing, the in - plant inventory is continuously increasing, and the port inventory is continuously decreasing, showing a bullish situation [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 10 - contract closes below the MA20, showing a bearish situation [8]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main players is short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish situation [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China from 2020 to 2025 [17][18]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2025 [20][21]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report presents the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [23][24]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the crack spreads of asphalt and SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025 [26][27][28]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report presents the price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [30][32]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - The report shows the price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [33][34]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The report presents the asphalt profit trend from 2019 to 2025 [35][36]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the profit spread trend between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [38][40]. - **Supply Side** - **Shipment Volume**: The report shows the weekly shipment volume of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [42][43]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report presents the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [44][45]. - **Production Volume**: The report shows the weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [47][48]. - **Marine Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The report presents the price trend of Marine oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [51][53]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The report shows the local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [54][55]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The report presents the weekly capacity utilization rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [57][58]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss**: The report shows the estimated maintenance loss trend of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [59][60]. - **Inventory** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: The report presents the exchange warehouse receipt trends (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [62][64][65]. - **Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory**: The report shows the social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) trends of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [66][67]. - **In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The report presents the in - plant inventory inventory ratio trend of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [69][70]. - **Import and Export Situation** - The report shows the export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [72][73]. - The report presents the import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [75][76][77]. - **Demand Side** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The report shows the petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 [78][79]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report presents the apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [81][82]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment**: The report shows the trends of highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2020 to 2025 [84][86]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report presents the sales volume trend of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours trend of excavators, the domestic excavator sales volume trend, and the roller sales volume trend from 2019 to 2025 [88][89][91][92]. - **Asphalt Construction Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Construction Rate**: The report shows the heavy - traffic asphalt construction rate from 2019 to 2025 [93][94]. - **Asphalt Construction Rate by Use**: The report presents the construction rates of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [96][97]. - **Downstream Construction Situation** - The report shows the construction rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt, and other downstream products from 2019 to 2025 [99][100][102]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report presents the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from January 2024 to August 2025, including downstream demand, diluted asphalt port inventory, in - plant inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production volume [104][105].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the supply side, in July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 77.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 328,255 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.94%, and that of ethylene enterprises was 136,560 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.04%. Supply pressure decreased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease with a significant increase in scheduled production [8]. - From the demand side, the overall downstream start - up rate was 42.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile start - up rate was 37.65%, a month - on - month increase of 0.74 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe start - up rate was 33.61%, a month - on - month increase of 0.649 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film start - up rate was 70.77%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.09 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin start - up rate was 77.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.43 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to fall, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [9]. - In terms of cost, the profit of calcium carbide method was - 222.7577 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 3.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 591.501 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 9.60%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,675.25 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 0.50%, higher than the historical average, and scheduled production may increase [9]. - The main positions are net short, with a decrease in short positions, showing a bearish trend. The calcium carbide method cost is strengthening, the ethylene method cost is weakening, and the overall cost is strengthening. The overall inventory is at a neutral level. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4,975 - 5,063. The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and domestic demand recovery is sluggish [10][14]. - Bullish factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Bearish factors include a rebound in overall supply pressure, high and slowly consumed inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PVC Market Overview - Yesterday's market data shows various indicators such as prices, spreads, inventories, and start - up rates. For example, the price of 01 contract increased by 0.30% to 5,019 yuan/ton, the social inventory increased by 3.08% to 508,000 tons, and the profile start - up rate increased by 2.00% to 37.65% [16]. 3.2 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the basis trend chart of PVC futures, showing the relationship between the basis, PVC spot price in East China, and the closing price of the main contract over time [18]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - It shows the trading volume, price trends, and changes in the positions of the top 5/20 seats of the main PVC futures contract in 2025, including opening prices, highest prices, lowest prices, closing prices, and moving averages [21]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread - The report shows the spread trends of different contract months (such as 1 - 9, 5 - 9) in 2024 and 2025, helping to analyze the price differences between different contract periods [24]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Semi - Coke - It includes the price, cost - profit, start - up rate, inventory, and daily output trends of semi - coke in Shenmu from 2022 to 2025 [27]. 3.6 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Calcium Carbide - It shows the price, cost - profit, start - up rate, maintenance loss, and production trends of calcium carbide in Shaanxi from 2019 to 2025 [30]. 3.7 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt - It presents the price, production trends of liquid chlorine, and the price and monthly production trends of raw salt from 2019 to 2025 [32]. 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Caustic Soda - It includes the price, cost - profit, start - up rate, production, maintenance volume, and inventory trends of 32% caustic soda in Shandong from 2019 to 2025, as well as the double - ton price difference and caustic soda apparent consumption trends [35][38]. 3.9 PVC Fundamental - PVC Supply Trend - It shows the capacity utilization rates of calcium carbide and ethylene methods, the profit trends of calcium carbide and ethylene methods, daily and weekly production, weekly maintenance volume, and capacity utilization rate trends of PVC from 2018 to 2025 [40][43]. 3.10 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - It includes the daily sales volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, downstream average start - up rate, and start - up rates of different downstream products (profiles, pipes, films, paste resin) from 2019 to 2025. It also shows the cost, profit, production, and apparent consumption of paste resin, as well as real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area, and macro - economic indicators such as social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment year - on - year from 2018 to 2025 [45][49][54][57]. 3.11 PVC Fundamental - Inventory - It presents the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days from 2019 to 2025 [58]. 3.12 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method - It shows the import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of ethylene method (Tianjin - Taiwan), and import spread of vinyl chloride (Jiangsu - Far East CIF) from 2018 to 2025 [60]. 3.13 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It provides the monthly supply - demand balance data of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import [63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the document regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The 10 - contract of asphalt showed an upward trend this week, and it is expected to have a bullish and volatile adjustment next week. The demand recovery will be limited, supply will decrease, and cost support will strengthen [5][6][105]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - **Price Trend**: The 10 - contract opened at 3,461 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 3,483 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly increase of 0.64% [5]. - **Supply Side**: In June 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 32.838%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.40 percentage points. The national sample enterprise shipments were 237,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.50%. The sample enterprise output was 548,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.80%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 648,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.15%. Refineries reduced production this week, and supply pressure may decrease next week [5]. - **Demand Side**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 30.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.07 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of building asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of modified asphalt was 16.9855%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.11 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt was 28.33%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.17 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes was 30.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.90 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [5]. - **Cost Side**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 591.75 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.70%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 788.4443 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.78%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. Crude oil strengthened, and it is expected to provide short - term support [5]. - **Inventory Side**: The social inventory was 1.292 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.79%. The factory inventory was 716,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.70%. The port diluted asphalt inventory was 150,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.05%. The social inventory continued to be destocked, the factory inventory continued to be stocked, and the port inventory continued to be destocked [6]. 3.2 Technical Analysis This week, the main 10 - contract showed an upward trend, and it is expected to have a bullish and volatile adjustment next week [105].