交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-10-27 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修量不及预期，远兴二期年前预期投产，整体供给处于高位；下游浮法玻璃供 给扰动较多，光伏日熔量延续下滑趋势，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1180元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1229元/吨，基差为-49元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存170.21万吨，较前一周增加0.09%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、浮法玻璃日熔量企稳。 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 主力基差 利空： 主要逻辑和风险 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年10月23日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年9月PVC产量为203.0766万吨，环比减少2.05%；本周样本企业 产能利用率为76.69%，环比减少0.07个百分点；电石法企业产量31.772万吨，环比减少9.92%, 乙烯法企业产量14.966万吨，环比减少0.78%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减 少，预计排产少量增加。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为48.59%，环比增加.38个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材 开工率为33.26%，环比增加7.39个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为40%，环比增 加.17个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price of rebar is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating trend due to the weak supply - demand fundamentals, with cost support being the only relatively positive factor. Attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by SteelHome today [2]. - For rebar 2601, the short - term and medium - term trends are oscillating, and the intraday trend is oscillating weakly. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line, as the industrial contradictions remain unresolved [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term trend is oscillating, the medium - term trend is oscillating, and the intraday trend is oscillating weakly. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the industrial contradictions remain unresolved and the steel price oscillates at a low level [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak. The weekly output of rebar continues to decline, but the production - reduction momentum during the peak season is not strong, and the inventory is high, so the positive effect of supply is limited. Meanwhile, the demand for rebar has rebounded from a low level but is still at a low level in the same period in recent years, and the downstream situation has not improved, casting doubt on the peak - season performance. In general, the supply has shrunk, and the demand has rebounded but remains at a low level. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals are weak, the pressure of inventory reduction is large, and the steel price continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is cost support [2].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-10-22 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率略有回落仍处于偏高位置，综合库存显著累积。需求端，工业 及农业需求均偏弱，农需受天气影响需求偏弱，复合肥、三聚氰胺开工率回落。出口内外价差较 大但对国内价格支撑有限。国内尿素整体供过于求仍明显。交割品现货1550（+0），基本面整体 偏空； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差-50，升贴水比例-3.2%，偏空； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存206.1万吨（+20.3），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，增空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震荡偏弱，国际尿素价格偏强但 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-10-22 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修量不及预期，远兴二期年前预期投产，整体供给处于高位；下游浮法玻璃供 给扰动较多，光伏日熔量延续下滑趋势，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1155元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1210元/吨，基差为-55元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存170.05万吨，较前一周增加2.45%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、浮法玻璃日熔量企稳。 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 1、主 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The short - term view of methanol 2601 is weak, the medium - term view is weak, and the intraday view is strongly oscillating. It is expected to run strongly, and there is a divergence between long and short positions, with methanol oscillating and stabilizing [1]. - After the market digests the event of sanctions on Iranian methanol vessels, the bullish driving force weakens. Domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output remain at a relatively high level, external import pressure continues to increase, and the annual import peak has arrived. As a result, the methanol inventory in ports of East and South China before the festival remains high. Although downstream demand is gradually improving, the profit of olefin futures is poor, and the weak demand situation still needs to be improved. Facing the medium - term downward trend suppression, on Tuesday night, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed a narrow - range consolidation, with the futures price rebounding slightly by 0.22% to 2262 yuan/ton. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract may maintain an oscillating and stabilizing trend on Wednesday [5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Methanol 2601 Situation - The short - term view is weak, the medium - term view is weak, the intraday view is strongly oscillating, and it is expected to run strongly, with a divergence between long and short positions and methanol oscillating and stabilizing [1]. Price and Market Logic - The calculation of price increase and decrease is based on the closing price of the night session (for varieties with night sessions) or the previous day's closing price (for varieties without night sessions) as the starting price and the closing price of the same - day daytime session as the ending price. A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is weakly oscillating, a rise of 0 - 1% is strongly oscillating, and a rise greater than 1% is an increase. Strong or weak oscillation only applies to the intraday view [2][3][4]. - After the market digests the event of sanctions on Iranian methanol vessels, the bullish driving force weakens. Domestic methanol operating rate and weekly output remain high, external import pressure increases, and the annual import peak has arrived, leading to high methanol inventory in East and South China ports before the festival. Although downstream demand is improving, olefin futures profit is poor, and the weak demand situation needs to be improved. On Tuesday night, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract showed a narrow - range consolidation, with the futures price rebounding slightly by 0.22% to 2262 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and stabilizing trend on Wednesday [5]

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241.3万吨，环比降幅5.1%,同比 增幅17.1%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为37.3921%，环比增加0.359个百分点，全国样 本企业出货25.335万吨，环比增加14.48%,样本企业产量为62.4万吨，环比增加0.97%,样本企 业装置检修量预估为61.6万吨，环比减少1.44%,本周炼厂有所增产，提升供应压力。下周或将 增加供给压力。 2025年10月21日 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为35.8%，环比增加0.04个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青 开工率为18.2%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年10月21日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 6、预期: 电石法成本走弱，乙烯法成本走弱，总体成本走弱；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修 有所减少，预计排产将会增加。总体库存处于高位；当前需求与历史平均水平接近；持续关 注宏观政策及出口动态，PVC2601:在4673-4731区间震荡。 3 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年9月PVC产量为203.0766万吨，环比减少2.05%；本周样本 企业产能利用率为76.69%，环比减少0.07个百分点；电石法企业产量31.772万吨，环比减少 9.92%,乙烯法企业产量14.966万吨，环比减少0.78%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检 修有所减少， ...

证券代码：839979 沥青期货周报 2025年10月13日-10月17日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 1 回顾与展望 3 回顾与展望 本周01合约为下跌态势,周一开盘价为3310元/吨,周五收盘价为3135元/吨，周跌幅为5.28% 供给端来看，根据隆众对96家企业跟踪，2025年6月份国内沥青总计划排产量为239.8万 吨，环比增幅3.5%,同比增幅12.7%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为37.3921%，环比增加 0.359个百分点，全国样本企业出货25.335万吨，环比增加14.48%,样本企业产量为62.4万吨， 环比增加0.97%,样本企业装置检修量预估为61.6万吨，环比减少1.44%,本周炼厂有所增产，提 升供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 37.0326%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14 percentage points. The shipments of sample enterprises decreased by 29.38% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 2.98% month - on - month. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment increased by 1.96% month - on - month. Refineries reduced production this week, and supply pressure may be reduced next week [8]. - Demand side: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The开工 rate of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane is either decreasing or flat month - on - month and lower than the historical average [9]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 345.85 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 24.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 882.4386 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 12.29%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the price in the short term [9]. - Overall expectation: The fundamentals are bullish, the basis is bullish, the inventory is neutral, the market is bearish, and the main positions are bearish. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2601 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3258 - 3300 [9][10][11]. - Influencing factors: Bullish factors include relatively high crude oil costs; bearish factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and overall downward demand with strengthened expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply side: The supply pressure remains high, and refineries have reduced production to relieve supply pressure [8][15]. - Demand side: The demand recovery is weak, and the overall demand is lower than the historical average [9][15]. - Cost side: The strengthening of crude oil provides short - term support, and the asphalt processing loss has decreased [9]. - Market expectation: Narrow - range fluctuations in the short term, with the asphalt 2601 contract fluctuating between 3258 - 3300 [10]. - Influencing factors: Bullish: relatively high crude oil costs; Bearish: insufficient demand for high - priced goods and overall downward demand [13][14]. 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - side Data - Planned production: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% [8]. - Capacity utilization rate: This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 37.0326%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14 percentage points [8]. - Shipments: The shipments of sample enterprises were 221,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29.38% [8]. - Output: The output of sample enterprises was 618,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.98% [8]. - Maintenance volume: The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 625,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.96% [8]. 3.2.2 Demand - side Data - Downstream开工 rates: The开工 rates of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane are all lower than the historical average, with some showing month - on - month decreases [9]. 3.2.3 Cost - side Data - Processing profit: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 345.85 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 24.00%; the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 882.4386 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 12.29% [9]. 3.2.4 Inventory Data - Social inventory: 1.058 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30% [11]. - Factory inventory: 690,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.48% [11]. - Port diluted asphalt inventory: 120,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.69% [11]. 3.2.5 Market Data - Futures prices: The prices of different contracts showed varying degrees of increase or decrease [18]. - Basis: On October 16, the spot price in Shandong was 3420 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 258 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [11]. - Main positions: The main positions were net short, and short positions increased [11].