中金公司（601995）认为，2024年银行业绩显示出银行基本面边际改善迹象，总体符合预期。业绩回升 主要得益于负债成本压降带来的息差下行速度放缓、债券相关投资收益的浮盈兑现、以及预期风险水平 下降带来的拨备节约，但在信贷需求复苏不明显、资产质量特别是零售信贷潜在压力仍在、债券收益波 动的背景下，这些改善能否持续有待于政策刺激对宏观经济的进一步效果。银行投资方面，建议继续关 注政策落地效果，尤其是居民端支持政策对居民收入预期和消费意愿的影响；银行股息仍具有吸引力， 建议择机配置股息较高且分红稳定的银行等，同时关注所在区域经济稳定或存在边际改善预期的标的。 平安证券认为，对银行的影响主要体现在：1）供给端，金融资源向消费领域倾斜，银行消费相关信贷 投放力度有望加大；消费领域企业融资成本和居民信贷成本也有望降低。2）需求端，居民消费能力和 意愿提升，银行有效消费信贷需求有望改善。财政贴息有助降低居民消费负担；财产性收入渠道拓展也 有助增强居民消费能力。3）消费金融发展力度有望加大。消费金融产品和服务的适配性和便利度有望 增强；支付便利化也有利于降低消费交易成本，为消费金融发展创造良好环境。预计银行场景金融建设 有 ...

与此同时，鉴于上年同期基数较低，报告预计，一季度我国GDP将同比增长5.2%左右，二季度我国 GDP将同比增长5.3%左右。上半年GDP增速将保持在5%以上，为全年5%左右增长目标的实现打牢基 础。 去年年底召开的中央经济工作会议和2025年政府工作报告，都将"大力提振消费、提高投资效益，全方 位扩大国内需求"作为今年重点工作之首。日前中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅还印发了《提振消费专 项行动方案》，那么，二季度消费走势将如何？ 报告预计，二季度消费有望持续回升。具体来看，一是促消费政策将提振居民消费；二是资本市场向好 将带来一定财富效应，进而推动居民消费倾向回升；三是集团消费或将低位企稳。综合来看，政策加码 与信心恢复将共同推动消费回暖。 转自：新华财经 新华财经北京3月27日电（记者余蕊 翟卓）中国银行研究院27日发布《中国经济金融展望报告（2025年 第2季度）》，预计二季度我国GDP同比增长5.3%左右。内需对经济的拉动作用将进一步增强，市场供 求结构性矛盾将有所缓解。 报告预计，二季度，美国关税和投资政策的影响或进一步显现。国内方面，宏观政策将明显加力，《提 振消费专项行动方案》有望加快实施。同时，科 ...

多家银行上调消费贷额度上限，部分产品最高额从 20万元增至30万元 3月25日，界面新闻了解到，近期多家银行上调了互联网消费贷款额度上限。 其中，中国银行将"中银E贷"产品的最高额度从20万元提高至30万元，将"随心智贷"产品的最高额度从 30万元提高至50万元，并将贷款期限从最长3年延长至最长5年。 工商银行将"融e借"产品的最高额度提高至30万元，贷款期限最长可达7年。 招商银行将"闪电贷"产品的最高额度从20万元提高至30万元，并将贷款期限延长至最长7年（84个月） 《通知》明确，商业银行可根据客户还款能力和风险情况，实施差异化授信。对于信用良好、有大额消 费需求的客户，个人消费贷款自主支付的金额上限可阶段性从30万元提高至50万元，个人互联网消费贷 款金额上限可阶段性从20万元提高至30万元。 在期限方面，针对有长期消费需求的客户，商业银行用于个人消费的贷款期限可阶段性由不超过 5年延 长至不超过 7 年。 业内人士认为，对于借款人来说，这些调整意味着更高的贷款额度和更长的还款期限，可以更好地满足 大额消费需求和长期资金安排。然而，最终审批的额度仍需依据借款人的信用记录、负债情况等因素综 合评定。 据 ...

《通知》出台前，《商业银行互联网贷款管理暂行办法》《消费金融公司管理办法》《小额贷款公司监督管理暂行办法》等行政规章均有个人互联网消费 贷款金额不超过20万元的相关规定。其中，《商业银行互联网贷款管理暂行办法》明确：单户用于消费的个人信用贷款授信额度应当不超过人民币20万 元，到期一次性还本的，授信期限不超过一年。 不过，此次对于个人互联网消费贷款的阶段性提额暂未扩至消费金融公司等非银机构。证券时报·券商中国记者从行业人士处了解到，目前消费金融公司仍 有20万元的限额。 从政策落地进展看，目前各银行进度不一。 来源|证券时报 3月21日，证券时报·券商中国记者从业内知情人士处了解到，金融监管总局在日前印发的《关于发展消费金融助力提振消费的通知》（下称《通 知》）中明确，对于信用良好、有大额消费需求的客户，个人互联网消费贷款金额上限可阶段性从20万元提高至30万元； 同时，《通知》还提出优 化个人贷款期限政策，针对有长期消费需求的客户，商业银行用于个人消费的贷款期限可阶段性由不超过5年延长至不超过7年。 个人消费贷款提额、延期是本次《通知》的一大亮点。 事实上，金融监管总局有关司局负责人3月14日已就"发展消费 ...

风险提示：经济不及预期，资产质量恶化风险；利率下行，NIM承压风险。 2月金融数据发布，政府债发力突出，企业信贷需求仍待修复：2月新增社融2.23万亿元，同比多增 7374亿元；截至2月末，社融存量同比增长8.19%,增速环比提升0.16pct。受信贷投放节奏提前影响，人 民币贷款转为少增。政府债持续发力贡献社融增长，2月新增政府债1.7万亿元，同比多增1.1万亿元。两 新政策成效释放，居民短贷降幅收窄，同比少减2127亿元。企业贷款同比少增，预计受累化债及融资需 求较弱。票据冲量较明显，同比多增 4460亿元。M1 增速回落至＋0.1%，居民存款搬家推动非银存款多 增。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 金融支持提振消费工作开展，利好银行零售业务修复：金融监管总局印发通知要求金融机构发展消 费金融，我们认为银行零售业务有望受益，主要体现在：(1）增加消费金融供给，场景金融拓展银行业 务空间。金融机构要增强消费金融服务的适配性和便利度，加大对消费服务行业的信贷投放。银行可利 用数字赋能发展场景金融，拓展潜在客群和经营半径。(2）优化消费金融管理，消费信贷投放规模有望 提升。通知鼓励银行在风险可控的前提下，加大个人消 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [3][21]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing policy support for the non-bank financial sector, suggesting that investors should continue to seize opportunities within this segment. The market is experiencing increased volatility due to factors such as fluctuations in the ten-year treasury yield, ongoing U.S. tariff threats, and the potential for prolonged stable interest rates from the Federal Reserve. The report highlights the importance of monitoring upcoming consumption-boosting policy announcements [1][9]. - The report indicates that the trading volume appears to be effectively pricing in the performance of brokerage and financial IT sectors, with stock prices showing signs of recovery. It anticipates a further expansion trend across market sectors, which could break the previous high turnover rate pattern seen in high-priced stocks [1][9]. - The report projects a high growth trend for brokerage firms in the first half of 2025, driven by a combination of stable stock market policies, a low domestic interest rate environment, and the rapid emergence of ETFs. It cites the impressive quarter-on-quarter performance of Dongfang Wealth in Q4 2024 as a validation of this trend [1][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Main Points - The report notes that from March 10 to March 14, 2025, the CSI 300 Index was at 4006.56 points (up 1.59%), the insurance index at 1194.41 points (up 4.29%), the brokerage index at 6622.06 points (up 2.86%), and the diversified financial index at 1219.98 points (up 1.24%) [7]. - The report highlights that the ten-year treasury yield has fluctuated around 1.80%, with the insurance sector showing upward movement in line with market trends. It also notes that the overall performance of the liability side remains stable, while the asset side in the equity market is improving, indicating promising investment opportunities in equity with notable elasticity [2][10]. 2. Key Investment Portfolio 2.1 Insurance Sector - The report suggests that the insurance sector is currently undervalued, presenting opportunities for valuation recovery. Recommended stocks include China Ping An, China Pacific Insurance, and New China Life Insurance, all of which have shown better-than-expected performance in recent quarters [11]. 2.2 Brokerage Sector - The report identifies several key brokerage firms to watch, including Dongfang Wealth, which has shown significant improvement in Q4 2024. Other recommended firms include Huatai Securities and China International Capital Corporation, which are expected to benefit from the rapid development of ETFs and have substantial valuation recovery potential [12].

证券研究报告 目 录 CATALOGUE 生产投资向好，地产成交回暖 地产 消费 价格 生产&基建 出行 04 05 01 02 03 00 政策 中观数据周报 投资要点 KEY POINTS 1 • 国内政策：专项债收储工作规范明确；发展消费金融提振消费。中央层面，国务院常务会议讨论通过《国务院2025年重点工作分工方 案》，李强总理在国务院第八次全体会议上强调更加注重加大政策力度和激发市场力量良性互动、协同发力。实施好更加积极有为的宏 观政策。产业层面，《促进环保装备制造业高质量发展若干意见》印发。金融财税层面，自然资源部就做好运用地方政府专项债券支持 土地储备有关工作出台通知，在发债要求、申报审核等方面做出明确要求。国家金融监督管理总局要求金融机构大力发展消费金融，助 力提振消费。 • 生产&基建：高频指标呈现向好态势。本周高炉、螺纹钢、涤纶长丝开工率持续提高，PTA、沥青开工率反弹，动力煤日耗相对稳定，但 建筑资金到位率仍处于低位。总体上看生产、基建相关高频指标有向好趋势。 • 地产：新房、二手房成交回暖。本周30城新房成交面积季节性回升，一线城市回升明显。9城二手房成交面积短暂回落后转向上行，体现 ...

Investment Rating - The market index rating is bullish, indicating that the CSI 300 index is expected to rise by 20% or more in the next six months [39]. Core Insights - The report highlights the volatility of overseas data and the certainty of domestic assets, suggesting that domestic equity assets are favored amidst global uncertainties [8][6]. - The report notes a short-term easing of inflation pressures in the U.S., with the February CPI rising by 2.8% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.9% [14][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of upcoming domestic economic data, including industrial production and retail sales, which will reflect the impact of monetary and fiscal stimulus on real estate prices [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Overseas Data and Domestic Asset Certainty - Global equity markets showed mixed performance, with U.S. stocks adjusting while A-shares performed well. Gold prices reached new highs, while oil and copper prices increased [6]. - The report indicates that the domestic equity market is currently favored due to its relative stability compared to the uncertainties in the U.S. economy [8]. 2. Inflation Pressure and Tariff Uncertainty - The U.S. February CPI data showed a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, with core CPI at 3.1%, reflecting a decrease in inflationary pressures [14][13]. - The report suggests that while inflation is easing, the impact of tariffs has not yet fully manifested in the CPI data, indicating potential future volatility [17][14]. 3. A-Share Market Commentary - The Shanghai Composite Index saw a significant increase, closing up 60 points, or 1.81%, supported by strong buying momentum [30]. - The report notes that the market sentiment has improved, with substantial net inflows into various sectors, particularly insurance and beverage manufacturing [31][32]. 4. Economic Policy Developments - The Chinese government has introduced a consumption stimulus plan aimed at boosting consumer spending and stabilizing the real estate market [19][20]. - The central bank is focusing on enhancing financing accessibility for key sectors and promoting consumption finance to support economic recovery [24][25].

每日市场观察 2025 年 3 月 17 日 【今日关注】 沪深两市平开后持续走高，个股多数上涨。板块方面，仅航空制 造和电源设备小幅收跌，多数行业如保险、多元金融、食品饮料、酿 酒、游戏和船舶制造等涨幅居前。从行为上看，资金当日倾向低位做 多，原因可能与央行信息有一定关系。形态方面，市场放量突破前高， 短期行情未结束，但是上涨的持续性有待考验。 科技领域的调整压力仍存，农业、金融和食品等领涨板块的持续 性需要市场验证。宏观利好不断加码，新能源、算力等方向仍然是长 期投资机会。 短期建议关注食品饮料行业的轮动机会，同时可以挖掘科技板块 的长期投资机会。长期来看，围绕国家政策扶持的相关产业还是主要 投资方向，投资者可借助短期的调整，寻找更合适的投资机会 【市场回顾】 市场概况：3 月 14 日，市场全天震荡走高，创业板指领涨，沪指重回 3400 点创年内新高。截至收盘，沪指涨 1.81%，深成指涨 2.26%，创业 板指涨 2.8%。 3.金融监管总局：鼓励银行业金融机构在风险可控前提下加大个人消 费贷款投放力度 金融监管总局印发通知，要求金融机构发展消费金融，助力提振消费。 有关司局负责人就相关通知内容回答记 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to challenge the 25,000 mark, driven by anticipated positive news from a press conference regarding consumption stimulus measures [2][3] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,959.98, up 497 points or 2.1%, with a total market turnover of 29.06 billion [3] - Major stocks such as Tencent and Alibaba saw increases of 2.8% and 3.3% respectively, indicating strong market performance [3] Group 2: Economic and Industry Dynamics - The National Financial Regulatory Authority has urged financial institutions to increase personal consumption loan offerings to boost consumer spending [6] - In the first two months of the year, Hong Kong recorded 8.4 million visitors, a year-on-year increase of 7%, with significant growth from Southeast Asian markets [7] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - AIA Group reported a new business value of 4.712 billion, an 18% year-on-year increase, with a new business value margin of 54.5% [10] - In 2024, AIA's new business value in Hong Kong reached 1.764 billion, a 23% increase, while the mainland's new business value was 1.217 billion, up 20% [11] - Rusal reported a net profit of 803 million, a 1.85 times increase year-on-year, despite a slight decline in revenue [12]