Core Insights - The uncertainty surrounding economic policy is exceptionally high according to the Federal Reserve's Musalem [1] - Even after the trade situation eased on May 12, tariffs may still lead to a weakening labor market and rising prices in the U.S. [1]

美联储穆萨莱姆：如果贸易紧张局势持续缓解，通胀可能回到目标水平，劳动力市场保持弹性，当前的 货币政策将保持适当性。 ...

美联储穆萨莱姆：美国经济有潜力，劳动力市场稳定，通胀有所缓解，但高于2%的目标。 ...

英国央行首席经济学家皮尔：同意货币政策委员会的观点，即劳动力市场有所缓解，问题是速度。 ...

英国央行首席经济学家皮尔：同意货币政策委员会（MPC）关于劳动力市场正在放缓的观点，问题在 于（放缓的）速度。 ...

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia indicates that the labor market remains tight, suggesting ongoing demand for workers and potential upward pressure on wages [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) acknowledges that while the labor market remains tight, broader capacity pressures have eased [1] Group 1 - The RBA indicates that the labor market is still considered tight, suggesting ongoing demand for labor and potential wage pressures [1] - There is a noted easing of broader capacity pressures, which may indicate a shift towards a more balanced economic environment [1]

美联储副主席杰斐逊：现在判断政府政策将如何影响劳动力市场还为时过早。 ...

美联储威廉姆斯：劳动力市场基本处于平衡状态。 ...

Core Viewpoint - OCBC maintains its expectation of three rate cuts in 2023, each by 25 basis points, but delays the first cut from Q2 to Q3 due to the current economic conditions [1][4]. Inflation Trends - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month in April, lower than the expected 0.3%, with the year-on-year increase in overall CPI decreasing from 2.4% to 2.3% [2]. - Housing prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, contributing to over half of the overall increase, while energy prices rose, offsetting declines in gasoline prices [2]. - Core CPI year-on-year growth remains at 2.8%, indicating persistent inflation in core services, while core goods prices have turned positive with a growth of 0.13% [2]. Labor Market Insights - The labor market shows signs of cooling, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 177,000 in April, which is above market expectations but not robust [3]. - The unemployment rate remains at a cyclical high of 4.2%, and average hourly earnings increased by only 0.2% month-on-month [3]. - The job vacancy rate fell to 4.3%, indicating a gradual easing of labor market tightness, with the job-to-unemployment ratio dropping to 1.02, suggesting potential impacts on unemployment if vacancies continue to decline [3]. Market Expectations - Market concerns about a U.S. recession have significantly eased, with the probability of recession dropping from 65% in early April to 38% currently [4]. - Interest rate futures reflect a cooling of rate cut expectations, with only 54 basis points of cuts priced in for the year, down from over 100 basis points in April [4]. - The expectation for a rate cut at the June FOMC meeting has been fully priced out, with only a 40% chance of a 25 basis point cut in July [4]. Treasury Yield Predictions - OCBC has slightly raised its forecast for U.S. Treasury yields due to the delayed rate cut expectations and improved market sentiment, but maintains a medium-term outlook of moderate decline [5]. - The report emphasizes that while the U.S. economy is not in a full recession, there are clear signs of slowing growth and persistent core inflation [5]. - Future economic data will be closely monitored, particularly regarding labor market conditions and service inflation, which could trigger policy adjustments [5].