Core Insights - The recent jobless claims data indicates that 232,000 individuals filed for unemployment in the week ending October 18, which is an increase from 219,000 in late September, marking a significant moment as it is the first data released post the government shutdown [1][6]. Economic Implications - The jobless claims figure provides insights into economic trends that were previously obscured during the government shutdown, suggesting that the labor market remains stable without alarming signs for economists [3]. - Forecasters anticipate a modest job growth report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, indicating that the economy added jobs in September, although job growth has slowed significantly since summer due to various uncertainties, including tariffs and immigration policies [4]. Labor Market Analysis - The overall assessment of the labor market suggests a deterioration, yet it is not on the verge of recession, as noted by Dean Baker, a senior economist [5].

钛媒体App 11月19日消息，美国里士满联储主席巴尔金对通胀前景表示乐观，同时指出劳动力市场可能 比现有数据显示的更疲软。巴尔金强调，新增就业与招聘职位数量下降，加之失业救济申领数据基本持 平，表明就业市场趋缓。"我们的调研表明，劳动力市场可能比这些数字反映的更弱，"巴尔金在周二于 弗吉尼亚州温彻斯特发表的讲话中表示。"如果你问企业如今如何看待劳动力市场，他们会说'平衡'。 但当他们进一步解释这种'平衡'时，情况似乎并非如此。"巴尔金提到，亚马逊、Verizon和Target等大型 企业近期的裁员公告"让人对劳动力市场更加谨慎"。他还表示，企业联系人对里士满联储的反馈让他认 为，"通胀仍略高，但不太可能大幅上升"。在会后接受采访时，巴尔金表示他同意美联储主席鲍威尔关 于12月是否降息"远未成定局"的说法。（广角观察） ...

智通财经APP获悉，里士满联邦储备银行行长托马斯·巴金对通胀前景持积极看法，但同时暗示劳动力 市场可能比现有数据所反映的更为疲软。巴金强调了一些显示就业增长和职位发布数量下降、而失业救 济申请人数基本保持稳定的数据。 "我们的调查表明，劳动力市场的状况比这些数字所显示的稍弱一些，"巴金在为周二弗吉尼亚州温彻斯 特一场活动准备的发言中称，"如果询问企业如何看待当前的劳动力市场，他们会说'平衡'。但当他们对 这种'平衡'展开更详细的描述时，似乎又不是那么回事。" 巴金表示，亚马逊(AMZN.US)、Verizon(VZ.US)和塔吉特(TGT.US)等大公司近期宣布的裁员消息，"为 劳动力市场提供了额外的谨慎理由"。 在最近的两次会议上均下调利率后，美联储决策者对是否继续降息已产生分歧。这场辩论正变得愈发公 开化，双方阵营的官员在近期的讲话中各执一词。一些人呼吁美联储目前应保持利率不变，认为通胀压 力比失业率上升的威胁更大;而对通胀前景持更乐观看法的人则表示，美联储应进一步降息以缓冲劳动 力市场。 他们的判断因联邦政府停摆结束后经济数据延迟发布而变得复杂。巴金将这种情况形容为"试图在漆黑 一片中把船驶向岸边，而灯 ...

Key Points - The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose to 232,000 for the week ending October 18, an increase from 219,000 for the week ending September 20, and above the Dow Jones consensus of 223,000 claims [1][2] - Continuing jobless claims increased slightly to 1.957 million from 1.947 million the previous week [2] - The Labor Department's jobless claims data has not been updated for the previous three weeks due to the government shutdown, but updates are expected soon [2][3] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics is anticipated to release delayed unemployment data, with September's jobs report scheduled for Thursday, projecting an addition of 58,000 nonfarm jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.3% [3]

11月18日周二，美元指数（DXY）在99.55附近整理，市场聚焦因政府停摆推迟的美国经济数据，其中 周四的9月非农就业报告为核心。美联储官员释放劳动力市场疲软信号，使12月降息预期降至43%。数 据与讲话落地前投资者观望情绪浓厚，美元短线方向将取决于非农表现。 美元指数技术面分析 从日线结构观察，美元指数目前运行于20日均线下方，短线趋势仍偏弱势，但99.50区域已形成较强支 撑。若指数能站稳该支撑区间，并重新突破20日均线（约99.90位置），将打开向100.50的反弹空间。 指标层面，14日RSI指标位于45-50区间，反映市场动能中性偏弱，且尚未触及超卖区域，意味着短线大 概率延续震荡格局。若后续跌破99.40支撑位，下行目标将指向99.10及98.80的阶梯式支撑区间。 官员言论的密集释放，直接引发市场对美联储政策预期的调整。据CME FedWatch工具数据显示，当前 交易员预期美联储12月降息25个基点的概率已降至43%，较一周前的62%大幅回落，与一个月前"几乎 确定降息"的市场共识形成鲜明反差。 综合来看，在重磅数据落地前，美元指数维持中性偏弱的整理格局，而劳动力市场的实际信号，将成为 锚定 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has decided to maintain interest rates unchanged, while discussing the impacts of recent inflation surges, labor market prospects, and the restrictiveness of monetary policy [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - RBA members unanimously agreed to keep the interest rate steady, reflecting a cautious approach to current economic conditions [1] - The central bank has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points during the current easing cycle, reaching the lowest level since April 2023 [1] Group 2: Economic Conditions - The committee discussed whether the financial environment remains tight, concluding it is still "slightly restrictive," but acknowledging that this may change [1] - The focus has shifted towards the potential extent of further rate cuts, given the tight labor market and sluggish productivity growth [1] Group 3: Data-Driven Approach - RBA members emphasized the importance of patience in assessing new data regarding capacity utilization, labor market outlook, and the degree of monetary policy restrictiveness [1] - The committee believes that a cautious and data-dependent approach is appropriate in the current environment [1]

Market Overview - Major indices in the US experienced declines, with the Dow Jones falling by 557.24 points (1.18%) to 46,590.24, the Nasdaq down by 192.51 points (0.84%) to 22,708.07, and the S&P 500 decreasing by 61.7 points (0.92%) to 6,672.41 [1] - In Europe, the DAX30 index dropped by 283.38 points (1.19%) to 23,603.69, the FTSE 100 fell by 22.72 points (0.23%) to 9,675.65, and the CAC40 decreased by 51.07 points (0.63%) to 8,119.02 [1] Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin fell over 2.5%, dropping below $92,000, while Ethereum declined more than 3%, falling below $3,000 [3] Commodities - Light crude oil futures for December delivery decreased by $0.18, closing at $59.91 per barrel, while January Brent crude oil futures fell by $0.19 to $64.20 per barrel, both reflecting a decline of 0.3% [2] - Spot gold decreased by 0.97%, priced at $4,045.87. Goldman Sachs indicated that central banks may have purchased a significant amount of gold in November, with expectations for gold prices to reach $4,900 by the end of 2026 [4] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Waller expressed support for a rate cut in December, citing concerns over a weakening labor market and the impact of monetary policy on low-income consumers [5] - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Jefferson noted an increase in downside risks to employment but emphasized the need for cautious policy adjustments as rates approach neutral levels [9] Corporate News - Amazon initiated a $12 billion corporate bond issuance, marking its first high-rated bond issuance in three years, with proceeds potentially used for debt repayment, acquisitions, and investments [10] - The European Union is assessing whether major cloud service providers, including Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud, should be subject to new regulatory obligations under the Digital Markets Act [11] Analyst Ratings - Jefferies raised the target price for Sohu (SOHU.US) from $18 to $20 [12] - Stifel analyst Stephen Gengaro increased the target price for Tesla (TSLA.US) from $483 to $508, citing progress in the company's autonomous driving and ride-hailing products [13]

周一，下任美联储主席的热门人选、现任美联储理事沃勒（Christopher Waller）表示，他支持在美联 储12月会议上再次降息，原因是他对劳动力市场以及招聘大幅放缓感到担忧。 周一，美联储副主席杰斐逊（Philip Jefferson）表示，他认为就业面临的下行风险有所上升，不过他也 重申，随着利率接近中性水平，决策者需要更加谨慎、缓步推进： 沃勒在伦敦向一群经济学家发表的预备讲话中表示： 我并不担心通胀加速或通胀预期显著上升。我关注的是劳动力市场。经过数月的走弱，我认 为本周稍后公布的9月就业报告，或未来几周的任何其他数据，都不大可能改变我认为需要 再次降息的观点。 沃勒明确表示，他支持再降息25个基点。另一位美联储理事史蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran），和沃勒一 样由美国总统特朗普任命，米兰在此前两次会议中倾向于降息50个基点。 尽管沃勒近月多次发声支持降息，但他也根据最新情况更新了自己的观点。由于近期政府关门导致官方 数据缺失，他引用了多项私人及少量公共部门的指标，显示劳动力市场需求疲弱以及消费者承压。 与此同时，他表示，价格数据表明关税不会对通胀产生持久影响。再次降息将是一种"风险管理" ...

来源：滚动播报 美联储沃勒：金融市场宽松状况不在我的职责范围内，我关注的是通胀和劳动力市场。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing a significant division among policymakers regarding interest rate decisions, breaking a long-standing consensus under Chairman Powell's leadership [2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision-Making - In late October, the Federal Reserve decided to lower interest rates by 25 basis points with a narrow majority, marking the first time since 2019 that there were opposing votes among decision-makers [2]. - The division among Federal Reserve officials is a direct result of economic uncertainty and the impact of President Trump's aggressive trade policies, leading to differing priorities between controlling inflation and supporting a weakening labor market [2][3]. - The complexity of decision-making has increased, as the Fed previously needed to lower borrowing costs significantly during the pandemic and then raised rates aggressively in 2022 to combat inflation [4]. Group 2: Implications of Division - A more divided Federal Reserve may have mixed implications for its effectiveness and credibility, with some economists suggesting it could lead to more moderate actions [5][6]. - The lack of key economic data due to the longest government shutdown in U.S. history has made it more challenging for the Fed to assess the economy, complicating future decisions [6][7]. Group 3: Perspectives of Federal Reserve Officials - Some officials, including Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, voted against the rate cut, citing concerns over rising costs and inflation [7]. - Conversely, officials advocating for further rate cuts argue that tariffs are unlikely to have a lasting impact on inflation and express concerns about the labor market's potential decline if rate cuts are not implemented swiftly [8].