美国总统特朗普：美国经济和劳动力市场仍然保持稳健。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's monetary policy committee member, Green, indicates that the economic fundamentals are weak, the labor market is loosening further, and the process of inflation decline is ongoing [1] Economic Fundamentals - Economic fundamentals are described as weak, suggesting potential challenges for growth and investment opportunities in the near term [1] Labor Market - The labor market is experiencing further loosening, which may impact consumer spending and overall economic activity [1] Inflation Trends - The process of inflation decline is still in progress, indicating that inflationary pressures may be easing, which could influence monetary policy decisions moving forward [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve officials are signaling support for a potential interest rate cut as early as July, with a focus on maintaining a healthy labor market and controlled inflation [1][2][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman expressed support for a rate cut if inflation remains controlled, indicating a shift in her previous focus on inflation concerns [1][4]. - Another Federal Reserve official, Waller, also indicated he might support a rate cut in July due to concerns about a weakening labor market [1][7]. - The recent comments from Bowman and Waller mark a significant change in the Federal Reserve's stance, particularly as they were both appointed during Trump's first term [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - The current benchmark interest rate is maintained at 4.25% to 4.5%, which is considered above the neutral rate that neither stimulates nor suppresses economic activity [2]. - Economic data shows that tariffs and other policies have not yet had a significant impact on the economy, with strong labor market and inflation data persisting [3][4]. - Following Bowman's comments, major stock indices such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq saw increases, indicating positive market sentiment [5]. Group 3: Interest Rate Expectations - According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, the likelihood of a rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on July 29-30 is currently estimated at 23%, while the probability for a cut in September is around 78% [4]. - The discussions around interest rate cuts are influenced by President Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower rates to reduce the financing costs of the growing national debt [7]. Group 4: Regulatory Considerations - Bowman highlighted the need to reassess the current leverage ratio regulations, which may have unintended consequences on market activities, particularly in the $29 trillion U.S. Treasury market [8][9]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to discuss potential modifications to leverage ratio rules, aiming to improve market resilience during stress events [8].

金十数据6月23日讯，美联储理事鲍曼表示："如果通胀压力得到控制，我将支持在下次会议上尽快降低 政策利率，以使其更接近中性水平并维持健康的劳动力市场。"鲍曼去年一直非常关注通胀风险。她 说，由于预计今年经济将出现更多闲置产能，她认为关税带来的价格上涨将是"小幅且一次性"的。她将 劳动力市场描述为坚实且预计接近充分就业的水平。但她亦援引了脆弱性的证据，包括劳动力市场活力 减弱、经济增长放缓和就业增长的狭隘集中，因此认为美联储在未来的决策中应"更加重视就业目标所 面临的下行风险"。这是鲍曼自今年春季被特朗普提名并经参议院确认出任美联储监管副主席以来，首 次就经济前景发表实质性评论。 美联储理事鲍曼暗示：或会支持7月降息 ...

美联储理事鲍曼：（我本人在）6月FOMC货币政策会议上支持按兵不动。 如果通胀继续下降、或者就业市场走弱，FOMC就可以降息。 美国劳动力市场稳健。 关税造成的价格上行压力似乎被抵消。 并没有看到贸易形势造成重大的影响。 ...

美联储理事鲍曼表示，支持维持6月利率不变，劳动力市场表现坚韧。尚未看到贸易发展带来的显著影 响。关税带来的价格上涨压力似乎已被抵消。美联储将于7月22日举办关于银行资本的会议。如果通胀 保持温和，将支持7月降息。 ...

美联储理事鲍曼：支持维持6月利率不变，劳动力市场表现坚韧。 ...

欧洲央行行长拉加德：强劲的劳动力市场、不断增长的实际收入、稳健的私营部门资产负债表和更宽松 的融资条件应该会有所帮助。 ...

本周五20：30，美国商务部将公布美国5月核心PCE物价指数年率，前值为2.5%，预期值2.6%，预期降 幅较小。核心PCE年率数据是美联储调整货币政策的重要参考。一旦PCE数据显著下降，美联储将提高 重启降息。美国5月核心CPI年率已经公布，最新值2.8%，与前值持平，已经连续三个月保持不变。CPI 数据是PCE的前瞻指标，5月PCE数据有较大概率与前值持平，利多美元指数。原油价波动同样可以预 测PCE数据变化。5月份，美原油涨幅4.43%，价格波动介于55~64美元之间，幅度较小。在原油价格波 动不大的情况下，PCE数据大概率不会有超预期变化。 | 10:00 a.m. | Testimony - Chair Jerome H. Powell | | --- | --- | | | Watch Live | | | Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress | | | Before the U.S. House Financial Services Committee | | 1:00 p.m. | CP - Commercial Paper | | 1: ...

周五，美联储理事沃勒（Waller）最新表态， 他预计关税不会显着推高通胀，因此美联储可能最早在7月会议上就降息，这一表态为美联储可能重启宽松周期 提供了重要信号。 沃勒的7月降息表态与美联储主流谨慎立场形成鲜明对比，却与特朗普的降息要求高度一致。分析认为，这是沃勒竞争下任美联储主席职位的策略表 态。 新美联储通讯社Timiraos称，沃勒在美联储内部立场历来较为灵活，能够在不同情况下调整观点。这种灵活性可能使其在竞争主席职位时具有优势。 沃勒力推7月降息论 Waller接受CNBC采访时表示： 我认为我们无需再等待太久就可以降息，可能最早在7月会议上就降息。 重要的是要忽略关税对通胀的影响，我们尚未看到关税对通胀产生重大冲击。 Waller明确表示支持在7月会议上降息，尽管他承认整个委员会是否会同意这一立场尚不确定。 如果你开始担心劳动力市场的下行风险，现在就行动，不要等待，为什么我们要等到真正看到崩盘才开始降息？ 所以我完全赞成在下次会议上开始考虑降低 政策利率，因为我们不想等到就业市场崩溃后才开始降息。 目前尚不清楚沃勒是否能够为他的立场争取到大量支持。包括Waller在内的FOMC一致投票决定在本周的 ...