The latest jobs data suggests that the UK labour market is continuing to cool, with unemployment now hitting 5%, higher than had been forecast. A December interest rate cut may now be on the cards. What does that mean for your money? https://t.co/9LaN4BEbGN ...

Market Performance - Broad market indices ended last week lower, with the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 both losing 1.6%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 1.2%. Technology stocks were the largest losers, with the Nasdaq Composite down 3% [2] - Stocks managed to recoup losses on Friday after being down significantly early in the day, with the S&P 500 bouncing off a key support level at 6670 [3] Economic Indicators - The government shutdown may be coming to an end, which could salvage the holiday season despite the total damage from the shutdown still being assessed [3] - Third-quarter earnings are on pace to rise 13.1% year-over-year, significantly surpassing initial estimates of just under 8% [4] - Despite strong earnings growth, market valuations remain extended, with the S&P 500's 12-month forward-looking P/E ratio at 22.7, above its 5- and 10-year averages of 20 and 18.6, respectively [5] Employment and Consumer Sentiment - Layoffs are accelerating, and net job growth may be negative, contributing to a sharp drop in consumer sentiment, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment index at 50.3, one of the lowest levels recorded [5] - The current employment situation is uncertain due to the government shutdown, but private estimates suggest job growth is at best anemic [5] Legislative Developments - The Senate is close to passing a resolution to reopen the government, which would require agreement from the House, raising concerns about potential delays [6] - A resumption of normal government functions would allow for better assessment of the broader economic picture, which is crucial for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [6] - There is currently a 65% chance of a quarter-point cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for December 10th, according to the CME Fed Watch Tool [6] Market Sentiment - Markets are optimistic about a potential deal in Congress, with equities trading higher by around 1% in the premarket [7] - If the legislation fails to pass, the 6670 level in the S&P 500 may be tested again [8]

Group 1: Currency Movements - The Pound Sterling (GBP) reached seven-month lows near 1.3000 against the US Dollar (USD) before recovering some ground due to buyer intervention [1] - The USD strengthened significantly, reaching its highest level in five months against six major currency rivals, driven by safe-haven flows [1] - The GBP/USD pair faced downward pressure from broad USD strength, challenging the 1.3000 psychological level before staging a recovery later in the week [4] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Economic Data - A "sell everything" theme emerged in the market as traders reacted to a correction in global indices following an AI-driven rally, leading to declines in US tech stocks and gold sales to cover equity losses [2] - The USD found support from reduced expectations of a December interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve, following strong private sector employment and services activity data [3] - US private payrolls increased by 42,000 jobs in October, surpassing expectations, while the ISM Services PMI rose to 52.4, indicating solid new orders [4] Group 3: Labor Market Concerns - Concerns about the weakening US labor market were reignited, with a 183.1% monthly surge in layoffs reported, marking the worst October in over two decades [5] - The odds of a Fed rate cut next month increased to 69% following the latest jobs data, compared to a previous estimate of 62% [6] - The Bank of England maintained its key Bank Rate at 4%, with a narrow 5-4 vote, indicating that future rate cuts will depend on inflation outlook [6][7]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The global real estate index declined by 1.5% last month, underperforming global equities by 390 basis points [2][11] - The underperformance is attributed to concerns regarding future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - Year-to-date performance shows Asia as the best-performing region (+25.6%), followed by Europe (+18.2%) and the US (+2.8%) in USD terms [2] Regional Performance - Europe outperformed with a +1.2% return, while the US and Asia saw declines of -1.6% and -1.8%, respectively [2] - Industrial real estate led the performance for the month with a +5.3% return, driven by a rebound in logistics leasing activity [2][3] - Residential real estate lagged with a -5.9% return due to soft operations in the US and rate sensitivity in Europe [2] Company Insights - UBS has initiated coverage on UAE real estate, giving Buy ratings to Aldar and Emaar [2] - The UBS 28th Annual Global Real Estate CEO/CFO Conference is scheduled for December 2-3, 2025, in London, featuring 70 global real estate management teams [2] Valuation Metrics - The global real estate sector is estimated to have an ~11% return as of October 31, 2025, with a 6.9% discount to NAV [4] - The 2025E P/E ratio is projected at 20.3x, with a 2025E DPS yield of 3.7% and 2024-25E EPS growth of 8.8% [4] Top Picks - Notable top picks include Keppel DC REIT, CapitaLand Ascendas, and Emaar Properties among others across various regions [5] Sector-Specific Trends - In Asia, the residential property market in mainland China remains weak, while Hong Kong's office market is improving due to active hiring [37] - Private REITs in China are expected to offer greater flexibility and fewer regulatory constraints compared to public REITs, creating new capital recycling opportunities [38] - Japanese REIT sponsors are noted for facilitating external growth, often offering assets at discounts to enhance accretion [39] Australia/New Zealand Market - Australian real estate was flat over the last month, outperforming global averages by 1.5 percentage points [40] - A-REIT performance was volatile, with expectations for a rate cut affecting market sentiment [41] - Notable performers included CNI (+6.8%) and INA (+3.3%), while ARF (-5.9%) and CLW (-3.4%) underperformed [43] Singapore Market - Singapore REITs raised approximately S$4 billion in 2025 YTD, indicating strong investor confidence [52] - The residential market is seeing buyers moving up price points, suggesting a positive outlook for 2026 [53] Japan Market - Japan's real estate returned +0.4% over the last month, outperforming global averages [58] - The new Prime Minister's policies may impact the housing market, with a focus on foreign investment regulations [59] China Market - The top 100 developers in China saw contract sales decline by 41% YoY in October 2025, indicating ongoing weakness in the property market [71] - CR Mixc has been upgraded to Buy due to its ability to identify emerging brands and signs of luxury retail recovery [72] Conclusion - The global real estate sector is facing challenges due to macroeconomic factors, but certain regions and sectors are showing resilience and potential for growth. The upcoming conference and ongoing evaluations of REITs and property markets will provide further insights into investment opportunities.

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the **Chinese bond market** and its dynamics, particularly in relation to government bonds and credit bonds, as well as the implications of recent regulatory changes and economic indicators on the market. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Long-term Trends in Bond Yields**: The long-term trend of government bond yields in China is downward, despite fluctuations in CPI and PPI. The overall environment remains deflationary, which is favorable for the bond market [2][19][20]. 2. **Impact of Regulatory Changes**: The anticipated changes in punitive redemption fees for institutional investors are expected to shift from 6 months to 3 months, which may enhance market sentiment once the uncertainty is resolved [3][4]. 3. **Public Fund Dividend Policy**: The tax exemption policy for public fund dividends is likely to remain in place in the short term, stabilizing the investment scale of bank-managed bond funds [5]. 4. **Credit Bond Market Differentiation**: There is a noticeable differentiation in the credit bond market, with industrial bonds performing well while bank capital bonds are adjusting. This is linked to the liquidity and structural changes in the market due to the opening period of amortized cost bond funds [7][8]. 5. **Future Allocation of Bonds**: An estimated allocation of approximately 500 billion yuan towards urban investment and industrial bonds is expected in the coming years, which may negatively impact the National Development Bank bonds [9]. 6. **Banking Sector Dynamics**: The banking sector is experiencing a significant shift towards financial investments, with the total balance reaching 101 trillion yuan, accounting for 31% of total assets. This trend is expected to continue, with financial investments potentially reaching 50% in the next 10-20 years [13][15]. 7. **Interest Rate Expectations**: There is a strong expectation for a reduction in policy interest rates, likely occurring in December or January, which would further push down the yields on 10-year government bonds [11][18]. 8. **Inflation Data Impact**: Future CPI and PPI data are not expected to significantly impact the bond market, as historical trends indicate that even high CPI levels did not lead to substantial changes in bond yields [19][20]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Real Estate Market Influence**: The ongoing decline in the real estate market, with significant drops in property prices and rents, is likely to contribute to a prolonged period of low consumer prices, affecting overall economic sentiment [22]. 2. **Comparative Analysis with Japan**: The records draw parallels between China's current economic situation and Japan's past experiences with deflation, suggesting that China may remain in a deflationary environment for the foreseeable future unless significant policy changes occur [21][23]. 3. **Banking Sector's Response to Low Interest Rates**: The decline in deposit rates has led to a significant reduction in banks' overall funding costs, making high-yield local government bonds more attractive [16][17]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call records, providing insights into the current state and future expectations of the Chinese bond market and its related sectors.

Market Overview - Pre-market trading has declined, reflecting a cautious sentiment towards AI infrastructure spending and a lack of economic data, particularly during what was expected to be Jobs Week [1] - The market has seen a downward trend over the past five days, moving away from all-time highs reached in late October [1] Employment Data - Non-farm payroll numbers from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) are unavailable due to a government shutdown, with estimates suggesting a loss of 60,000 jobs last month [2] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5%, while hourly wages are anticipated to remain steady at a year-over-year increase of 0.3% [2] - ADP reported an addition of 42,000 new jobs, which is better than BLS estimates but still indicates a weak labor market [3] - The Challenger Job Cuts report indicated 153,000 job cuts, highlighting ongoing challenges in employment [3] Interest Rate Expectations - There is a tentative expectation for a 25 basis-point interest rate cut in approximately 4.5 weeks, although market indexes may have already priced in this cut [4] - The "neutral rate" of inflation is uncertain but is believed to be higher than the optimal 2% [4] Earnings Reports - Wendy's (WEN) reported Q3 earnings of $0.24 per share, exceeding expectations by 20%, leading to a 9% increase in shares [5] - Six Flags Entertainment (FUN) posted earnings of $3.28 per share, surpassing the consensus estimate by 46.4%, although shares are down 2% in early trading [5] - Fluor (FLR) reported Q3 earnings of $0.68 per share, beating expectations by 54.55%, with shares up 4.6% in pre-market trading [6] - Constellation Energy (CEG) reported earnings of $3.04 per share, falling short of the anticipated $3.13, resulting in a 6.3% decline in shares [7] - Canopy Growth (CGC) shares increased by 12% despite reporting a loss of $0.01 per share, an improvement from the expected loss of $0.10 [8] Consumer Sentiment and Credit - The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report for November is expected to show a slight decrease to 53.0 from 53.6, remaining above the neutral threshold of 50 [9] - Consumer credit for September is projected to total $10.0 billion [9]

Group 1 - Precious metals prices remained volatile, with COMEX gold futures down 0.20% at $3984.80 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 0.37% at $47.85 per ounce [1] - The U.S. Department of the Interior's Geological Survey (USGS) released a new critical minerals list, marking the first inclusion of copper, silver, uranium, and potash since 2018 [1] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's direction for a potential rate cut in December remains unclear, with concerns over inflation overshadowing employment issues among committee members [1][2] Group 2 - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is impacting the economy and job market, leading to mixed signals regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [2] - The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts that U.S. retailers will hire between 265,000 to 365,000 seasonal workers this holiday season, marking the lowest level in at least 15 years [1] - The Bank of England maintained its interest rate at 4%, with expectations for a rate cut in December increasing [1][2]

Currency Market - The Malaysian ringgit strengthened to its highest level in over a year [1] - Reduced expectations of a central bank interest-rate cut contributed to the ringgit's gain [1] - Renewed optimism regarding economic growth supported the ringgit's appreciation [1]

Core Viewpoint - Ongoing high levels of inflation suggest that the U.S. central bank should not cut interest rates further at this time [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Stance - The current monetary policy is viewed as barely restrictive, which does not significantly help in reducing inflation pressures above the 2% target [2][3]. - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut the benchmark interest rate to the 3.75%-4.00% range was opposed by Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack, who believes inflation remains too high [3][5]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Hammack projects inflation to be at 3% by the end of this year, remaining elevated through 2026 before gradually returning to desired levels [5]. - Financial markets are currently supportive of the economy, with accommodative financial conditions due to recent equity price gains and easy credit [6]. Group 3: Labor Market Insights - There are concerns regarding the labor market, with expectations that the unemployment rate will rise slightly above its longer-run value by the end of the year [6]. - Despite the slowing labor market, Hammack does not foresee a significant downturn, although subdued job growth may indicate fragility [6].

Market Overview - U.S. stocks experienced a positive session, with the Dow Jones index increasing by approximately 226 points to close at 47,311.00, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite gained 0.37% and 0.65%, respectively [4] - The CNN Money Fear and Greed index showed a slight easing in fear levels, currently at 24.1, remaining in the "Extreme Fear" zone, up from a previous reading of 21.5 [6][7] Employment Data - The ADP National Employment Report indicated that private employers added 42,000 jobs in October, a rebound from the 32,000 jobs lost in September, surpassing economists' expectations of a 25,000 job gain [2] Corporate Earnings - Eli Lilly and Co. continued its post-earnings rally for a fifth consecutive session, with shares reaching their highest levels since September 2024 [3] - McDonald's Corp. reported weaker-than-expected earnings for the third quarter [3] - Investors are anticipating earnings results from Cummins Inc., Airbnb Inc., and ConocoPhillips [5] Sector Performance - Most sectors within the S&P 500 closed positively, with communication services, consumer discretionary, and materials stocks showing the largest gains, while consumer staples and information technology sectors closed lower [4]