图片来源：视觉中国 "618购物季"电商平台激战正酣，多地消费者却意外遭遇"国补"暂停申领的局面，也引发了政策提前终 止的猜测。不过，近日官方消息已证实，消费品以旧换新加力扩围政策没有变化，补贴资金使用进度符 合预期，第三、四季度中央资金将陆续下达。 消费品以旧换新补贴即去年以来就持续受到关注的"国补"政策。延续去年经验做法，国家发展改革委、 财政部、商务部等相关部门今年直接向地方安排3000亿元国债资金，加力扩围实施消费品以旧换新，在 今年年度内全年实施——今年1月和4月已分别下达两批共计1620亿元中央资金，支持地方做好一、二季 度消费品以旧换新工作；后续还将有1380亿元中央资金在三、四季度分批有序下达。 "目前全国消费品以旧换新补贴资金使用大致占到全年规模50%左右，整体进度符合预期。"6月20日新 华社报道援引国家发展改革委有关负责人称，"国补"资金包括三个部分：一是中央下达的超长期特别国 债资金，规模比去年翻了一番；二是按照有关规定，地方在中央下达资金基础上按比例配套，按照总体 9:1的原则实行央地共担；三是一些地方还将结合当地工作进度和实施情况，在中央下达以及按比例配 套资金以外，再额外安排地方 ...

国补后续 1320 亿资金将于 7 月、10 月分批下达，618 拉动下 5 月双线零售高增 部分地区补贴额度紧张，6 月以来国补进入调整阶段。据国家发改委、财政部等，25 年计划向地方安排 3000 亿元国 债资金加力扩围实施消费品以旧换新，上半年共向地方下达 1620 亿中央资金以支持消费品以旧换新。截至 5 月 31 日， 国补资金消耗总额达 1550-1650 亿，约占到全年规模 50%左右。受国补资金消耗偏快影响，6 月起，部分区域如重庆、 江苏、广东、湖北等宣布国补政策进入阶段性调整。 下半年国补接续已确定，剩余资金将于 7 月、10 月下达。据国家发改委、财政部，上半年共下达 1620 亿资金支持以 旧换新，剩余 1380 亿将于 7 月、10 月分批下达，确保各地于 7 月陆续重启申领。据各地政府/商务厅通知，重庆第二 阶段政策已在起草过程中，江苏恢复线上申领并实施每日限额策略，广东部分城市恢复线下操作，湖北也将于 6 月下 旬恢复。此外，下半年补贴或通过分领域、分时段等方案细化资金的使用方式，确保政策更加平稳有序、资金均衡使 用至年底。 618 拉动下家电 5 月线上、线下零售继续提速。20 ...

5月份，全省社会消费品零售总额2352.21亿元、同比增长8.5%，比上月加快0.4个百分点，今年以来呈 逐月加快态势，高于全国2.1个百分点；其中，限额以上单位消费品零售额增长16.2%，比上月加快1.3 个百分点，高于全国8.2个百分点。1-5月，全省社会消费品零售总额11820.14亿元、增长7.5%，比上月 加快0.3个百分点，高于全国2.5个百分点；其中，限额以上单位消费品零售额增长14.3%，比1-4月加快 0.4个百分点，高于全国8.0个百分点。超八成商品零售保持增长。5月份，在限额以上单位的23类商品 中，有19类商品零售额实现同比增长，增长面达82.6%、与上月持平。两新政策效应持续释放。5月 份，在大规模设备更新等政策措施带动下，全省限额以上单位机电产品及设备类商品零售额增长 46.1%；在消费品以旧换新等政策措施带动下，全省限额以上单位计算机及其配套产品、智能手机、可 穿戴智能设备、家用电器和音像器材类、新能源汽车零售额分别增长1.7倍、1.6倍、86.1%、47.3%、 27.0%，对全省限额以上单位零售额增长贡献率达56.8%、同比提高23.6个百分点。基本生活消费品增长 较快。5月 ...

Group 1 - The consumer goods trade-in subsidy program in Xifeng District has been suspended as of June 19, 2025, due to the exhaustion of available funds [2][3] - During the suspension period, no subsidies will be provided for products purchased through the trade-in program, both online and offline [2] - Consumers who made eligible purchases before the suspension must submit their application materials by July 5, 2025, to receive subsidies [2]

估计下半年家电以旧换新支持资金大约300亿元。有商家建议，希望能解决经销商垫资兑现时间较长的问题。 "预计随着今年7月第三季度以旧换新中央资金的下达，目前部分地区国补暂停、限流的状况将缓解，估计下周是过渡期。"上述业内资深人士分析说，与此 同时，今年下半年，国家将在价格规范上加强监管，防止政策实施过程中商家虚标原价的行为。 野矿泉 自由 争热一体 煥鲜水 - 排出 河雪豚 比烧开一步到位 首杯水直饮 全时鲜活纯净 全 室 外 吸 排 6月20日，据有关部门消息，消费品以旧换新国家补贴（下称"国补"）下半年还将有1380亿元中央资金在三、四季度分批有序下达。家电业内资深人士向第 一财经记者表示，目前部分地区国补暂停，后续将重启；部分地区国补限流，后续将缓解。有商家建议，下半年国补实施，希望能解决经销商垫资兑现时间 较长的问题。 国家有关部门表示，将在7月、10月分别下达第三季度和第四季度支持以旧换新的中央资金，各地也将持续做好配套资金支持。相关部门将指导地方进一步 优化完善补贴发放方式，确保政策实施更加平稳有序、资金均衡使用到年底。此外，相关部门将加强产品质量和价格监管，严防套补骗补，确保政策规范有 序实施。 ...

【重点关注】 ·以旧换新"国补"将持续中央资金将分批下达 ·一年期、五年期LPR均维持不变 ·内地与香港跨境支付通即将上线人民银行公布首批参与跨境支付通的机构名单 ·重点支出有力度！前5个月财政支出超11万亿元 【国内要闻】 ·从有关部门获悉，消费品以旧换新加力扩围政策没有变化，补贴资金使用进度符合预期，第三、四季 度中央资金将陆续下达。今年1月和4月已分别下达两批共计1620亿元中央资金，支持地方做好一、二季 度消费品以旧换新工作。后续还将有1380亿元中央资金在三、四季度分批有序下达。 ·6月20日，人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布：1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%。 两个期限LPR维持不变符合市场预期。 ·为深化内地与香港金融合作，满足两地居民安全、高效、便捷的跨境汇款需求，中国人民银行、香港 金融管理局共同推动并支持由中国人民银行清算总中心和香港银行同业结算有限公司开展内地与香港快 速支付系统互联互通合作（以下简称跨境支付通）。首批参与跨境支付通的内地机构包括：工商银行、 农业银行、中国银行、建设银行、交通银行、招商银行；香港机构包括：中银香港、东亚银行、建银亚 洲、恒生银行、 ...

Group 1: Consumption Subsidy Program - The progress of the consumption goods replacement subsidy fund usage is in line with expectations, with 138 billion yuan of central funds to be distributed in the third and fourth quarters [1][4] - The national consumption goods replacement subsidy fund usage is approximately 50% of the annual scale, indicating overall progress is as anticipated [4] - The "national subsidy" funds consist of three parts: long-term special government bond funds, local matching funds based on a 9:1 principle, and additional local funds based on implementation progress [5] Group 2: Future Funding and Implementation - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Finance will distribute central funds for the consumption goods replacement program in July and October [6] - Since 2025, the NDRC and other departments have allocated 300 billion yuan in government bond funds to support the consumption goods replacement program [6] Group 3: Private Investment Promotion - The NDRC has introduced over 3,200 projects to private capital, with total investments exceeding 3 trillion yuan, focusing on key sectors such as transportation, energy, and environmental protection [7][9] - The NDRC aims to enhance mechanisms for private enterprises to participate in major national projects and will continue to promote projects to stimulate private investment [9] Group 4: E-commerce Growth - From January to May, China's e-commerce sector has shown steady growth, with online retail sales increasing by 8.5% [12][13] - Quality products and new consumption models are driving growth, with significant increases in sales of digital products and home appliances [16] - The number of e-commerce partner countries has increased to 35, with various activities planned to enhance global e-commerce collaboration [22]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.20」 螺纹钢市场周报 炉料反弹成本支撑 螺纹期价震荡偏强 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 添加客服 业务咨询 目录 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格及价差：截至6月20日收盘，螺纹主力合约期价2992（+23），杭州螺纹中天现货价格3130（+30）。（单 位：元/吨） 2. 产量：螺纹产量由降转增。212.18（+4.61）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：天气和中高考影响需求，表观需求三连降。本期表需219.19（-0.78），（同比-16.58）。（单位：万 吨） 4. 库存：厂库和社库延续下滑，但降幅收窄。螺纹钢总库存551.07（-7.01），（同比-224.59）。（单位：万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率59.31%，环比上周增加0.87个百分点，同比去年增加7.36个百分点。 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 1. 宏观方面：海外，（1）以伊冲突不断升级 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a slight decline on June 20, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.47%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.84% [2] - A total of 1542 stocks rose, 53 stocks hit the daily limit up, while 3647 stocks fell [3] Stock Performance - The total trading volume reached 10,917.40 billion, with a total of 54,21 stocks traded [4] - Notable gainers included Ningbo Marine (10.10%), Xingtong Co. (9.97%), and Baoshui Technology (9.93%) [5] - Bank stocks continued to perform well, with Xiamen Bank rising by 2.89% and Hangzhou Bank by 2.63% [6][7] Sector Analysis - The oil and gas sector saw a collective decline, with stocks like Beiken Energy hitting the daily limit down [8] - The IP economy concept stocks faced adjustments, with Yuanlong Yatu dropping by 10% [10][11] Consumer Sector - The consumer sector received positive news, with liquor stocks like Huangtai Liquor hitting the daily limit up [12] - Other liquor stocks such as Yingjia Gongjiu and Jinzhongzi Liquor also saw significant gains [13] - The home appliance and furniture sectors showed strong performance, with Midea Group and Gree Electric rising by 1.47% and 1.27% respectively [14][15] Policy Impact - Recent comments from Xinhua emphasized the importance of distinguishing between normal dining and violations of regulations, indicating that the crackdown on excessive dining should not hinder normal consumption [16][17] - The government is set to continue its "old for new" consumption policy, with a total of 3000 billion in central government bonds allocated to support this initiative [18]

Group 1 - The "National Subsidy" program for consumer goods replacement is still in effect, with no changes to the policy, and the funding usage is on track as expected [1][2] - A total of 3 trillion yuan in special national bond funds will be allocated to support the consumer goods replacement program, with 1.62 trillion yuan already distributed in two batches [1][2] - The remaining 1.38 trillion yuan will be distributed in the third and fourth quarters, with specific allocations scheduled for July and October [1][2] Group 2 - The funding for the "National Subsidy" program comes from three sources: central government long-term special bond funds, local matching funds, and additional local funds based on implementation progress [2] - Different regions have varying subsidy ranges and amounts due to differing local financial capabilities, with some areas including textiles in their subsidy programs [5] - In Shanghai, a multi-tiered subsidy system is being implemented, combining national, municipal, and enterprise subsidies, resulting in over 11 million orders and sales exceeding 26 billion yuan [5] Group 3 - There are emerging social issues related to the subsidy program, such as "scalpers" exploiting student subsidy quotas for profit [5][6] - Some merchants are accused of raising prices before the subsidy and then using the "National Subsidy" to attract consumers, leading to consumer distrust [6] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to enhance supervision of product quality and pricing, ensuring compliance and preventing fraudulent activities related to the subsidy program [6]