1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar rebounded from the bottom, with a daily increase of 0.16%. In the current situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar are poor, industrial contradictions are accumulating, the pressure of inventory reduction under weak demand is relatively large, and the cost - support advantage is also weakening. It is expected that the steel price will continue the weak bottom - seeking trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [6]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated. It recorded a daily decline of 0.19%. Currently, the supply of hot - rolled coil is high, while there are concerns about demand. Industrial contradictions are continuously accumulating, the inventory reduction is large, and the price of hot - rolled coil is under pressure and running weakly. Attention should be paid to the demand performance and beware of the intensification of industrial contradictions caused by the weakening of demand [6]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.90%. At present, the supply of ore has increased, while industrial concerns have fermented, and the positive factors for ore demand are weakening. The fundamentals of the ore market are starting to weaken, and the over - valued ore price will be under pressure and run weakly. However, due to the high rigid demand for ore, there is resistance to the downward movement. The subsequent downward trend depends on the steel mills' production cuts, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [6]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - According to the VAT invoice data, in the first three quarters of this year, the equipment renewal of national enterprises accelerated. The procurement amount of machinery and equipment by industrial enterprises increased by 9.4% year - on - year. Among them, high - tech manufacturing maintained a good growth momentum, with the procurement amount of machinery and equipment increasing by 14% year - on - year. The procurement amount of digital equipment by national enterprises increased by 18.6% year - on - year [8]. - In September 2025, the balance of the stock of social financing scale was 437.08 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.7%. The balance of RMB loans issued to the real economy was 267.03 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. In the first three quarters of 2025, the increment of social financing scale was strong, with a cumulative increase of 30.09 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.42 trillion yuan [9]. - Shaanxi Province issued a notice on strengthening measures to prevent and contain coal mine accidents in the fourth quarter to strengthen coal mine safety prevention in the fourth quarter [10]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,160 yuan, 3,120 yuan, and 3,212 yuan respectively. The prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,280 yuan, 3,190 yuan, and 3,333 yuan respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,930 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,140 yuan. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 120 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,020 yuan [11]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 774 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 807 yuan. The sea freight from Australia was 10.35 yuan, and from Brazil was 23.61 yuan. The SGX swap price (current month) was 105.68 yuan, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 106.20 yuan [11]. 3.3 Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,049 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.16%. The trading volume was 1,036,367 lots, an increase of 18,231 lots, and the open interest was 2,039,387 lots, a decrease of 12,158 lots [13]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,219 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.19%. The trading volume was 641,702 lots, an increase of 140,505 lots, and the open interest was 1,479,995 lots, an increase of 10,590 lots [13]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 773.5 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.90%. The trading volume was 398,551 lots, an increase of 92,790 lots, and the open interest was 535,578 lots, an increase of 27,213 lots [13]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (including national 45 - port inventory and 247 - steel - mill inventory), and steel mill production (including blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and electric furnace operating rate) [15][22][30]. 3.5 Market Outlook - For rebar, during the holiday, both supply and demand weakened. The weekly output of construction steel mills decreased by 3.62 tons, and the demand was also weak. With high inventory and weak cost support, it is expected that the steel price will continue the weak bottom - seeking trend [37]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern continued to weaken. The weekly output decreased by 1.40 tons but remained at a high level within the year. The demand during the holiday was weak, and there are concerns about future demand. The price is under pressure and running weakly [37]. - For iron ore, the supply has increased, while the positive factors for demand are weakening. The high - valued ore price will be under pressure and run weakly, but there is resistance to the downward movement. The subsequent downward trend depends on the steel mills' production cuts [38].

Core Insights - The latest data from the National Taxation Administration indicates a significant acceleration in equipment updates and the effectiveness of the "old-for-new" consumption policy in China, particularly in the first three quarters of 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Equipment Procurement Trends - In the first three quarters of this year, the amount spent by industrial enterprises on machinery and equipment increased by 9.4% year-on-year [1] - High-tech manufacturing maintained a strong growth momentum, with machinery and equipment procurement rising by 14% [1] - The electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sectors saw a 10.5% increase in machinery and equipment procurement [1] - The information transmission, software, and IT services sectors experienced significant growth, with procurement amounts increasing by 26.8% and 32.5% respectively [1] Group 2: Digital Equipment Investment - Nationally, the procurement of digital equipment by enterprises grew by 18.6% year-on-year, indicating a strong push towards digital transformation [1][2] - High-end manufacturing sectors, such as shipbuilding and computing, reported year-on-year increases in digital equipment procurement of 17.3% and 22.7% respectively [1] Group 3: Role of Private Enterprises - Private enterprises showed a more pronounced role in equipment updates, with machinery and equipment procurement increasing by 13% year-on-year, surpassing state-owned and foreign enterprises [2] - In innovative sectors, private enterprises in the internet and smart drone industries saw procurement increases of 32.8% and 70.5% respectively [2] Group 4: Impact of "Old-for-New" Policy - The "old-for-new" policy has significantly boosted retail sales in various sectors, with home appliance sales such as refrigerators and televisions increasing by 48.3% and 26.8% year-on-year [2] - Retail sales in furniture and lighting also saw substantial growth, with increases of 33.2% and 17.2% respectively, particularly in smart home products like robotic vacuum cleaners, which grew by 75% [2] - The newly expanded scope of the policy also led to a 19.9% increase in retail sales of mobile communication devices [2]

Core Insights - The implementation of large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods replacement policies has significantly boosted equipment investment and consumption growth in China since March 2024 [1][2][3] Group 1: Equipment Investment - Industrial enterprises have shown a positive trend in equipment renewal, with machinery equipment purchases increasing by 9.4% year-on-year in the first three quarters of this year [1] - High-tech manufacturing has maintained strong growth, with machinery equipment purchases rising by 14% [1] - The electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry saw a 10.5% increase in machinery equipment purchases, with thermal production and supply specifically growing by 16.4% [1] Group 2: Digital Equipment Investment - The information and technology sectors have increased their investment in equipment, with machinery equipment purchases in the information transmission, software, and IT services sector growing by 26.8%, and scientific research and technical services by 32.5% [2] - Nationally, the purchase of digital equipment by enterprises rose by 18.6%, indicating a strong push towards digital transformation [2] - High-end manufacturing sectors, such as shipbuilding and computing, reported increases in digital equipment purchases of 17.3% and 22.7%, respectively [2] Group 3: Private Sector Contribution - Private enterprises have played a significant role in equipment renewal, with machinery equipment purchases increasing by 13% year-on-year, surpassing state-owned and foreign enterprises [2] - Innovative sectors within the private economy, such as the internet and smart unmanned aerial vehicles, saw substantial growth in machinery equipment purchases, with increases of 32.8% and 70.5%, respectively [2] Group 4: Consumer Goods Demand - Retail sales of home appliances and furniture have surged, with sales of daily-use appliances like refrigerators increasing by 48.3% and home audio-visual equipment by 26.8% [2] - The furniture and lighting retail sectors reported sales growth of 33.2% and 17.2%, respectively, with smart home products like robotic vacuum cleaners experiencing a remarkable 75% increase in sales [2] - The retail sales of mobile communication devices, newly included in the policy scope, grew by 19.9% [2] Group 5: New Energy Vehicles - Sales of new energy vehicles have continued to rise, with a year-on-year increase of 30.1% in the first three quarters, reflecting the vitality of China's new energy vehicle industry [3] - The implementation of the vehicle replacement policy has effectively stimulated automotive consumption potential [3] Group 6: Policy Impact - The "Two New" policies have played a crucial role in stabilizing investment, expanding consumption, promoting transformation, and benefiting people's livelihoods [3] - The tax data indicates that the policies have effectively promoted the production and application of advanced equipment, enhancing the proportion of advanced capacity [3] - The tax authorities will continue to support the "Two New" policies to further unleash domestic demand potential and contribute to high-quality development [3]

Group 1: Equipment Update in Industrial Sector - The overall situation of equipment updates in industrial enterprises is positive, with a 9.4% year-on-year increase in the procurement of machinery and equipment in the first three quarters of this year [1] - High-tech manufacturing maintains a strong growth momentum, with machinery and equipment procurement increasing by 14% year-on-year [1] - Digital equipment procurement by enterprises increased by 18.6%, with specific high-end manufacturing sectors like shipbuilding and computing showing significant growth of 17.3% and 22.7% respectively [1] Group 2: Role of Private Enterprises - Private enterprises have shown a significant supporting role in equipment updates, with a 13% year-on-year increase in machinery and equipment procurement, surpassing state-owned and foreign enterprises [1] - Innovative sectors within the private economy are maintaining high momentum, with procurement in the internet and intelligent unmanned aerial vehicle sectors increasing by 32.8% and 70.5% respectively [1] Group 3: Consumer Goods and New Energy Vehicles - The consumption of household appliances and home products has risen significantly due to the old-for-new consumption policy, with retail sales of daily household appliances like refrigerators and audiovisual equipment increasing by 48.3% and 26.8% year-on-year respectively [2] - Furniture and lighting retail sales also saw substantial growth, with increases of 33.2% and 17.2% respectively [2] - The sales of new energy vehicles increased by 30.1% year-on-year, driven by effective old-for-new policies that stimulated automotive consumption [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant growth in the number of consumer goods registered with barcodes in China, with a total of 19.92 million new products added in the first three quarters of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 31.4% [1] - The total number of consumer goods varieties reached 230 million by the end of September, indicating a sustained upward trend in the market [1] - The top ten categories of newly registered consumer goods include clothing, furniture, daily necessities, food, healthcare, hardware, cosmetics, office supplies, building materials, and home appliances, accounting for 86.6% of the total new products [1] Group 2 - The home appliance sector saw a notable increase, with 181,000 new products added, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 47.3%, driven by the "old for new" policy [2] - Among the home appliance categories, televisions, range hoods, and cooking stoves showed remarkable growth rates of 151.7%, 136.8%, and 124.3% respectively, becoming the main contributors to this sector's growth [2] - The regional distribution of new consumer goods shows that the eastern region led with 15.84 million new products, followed by the central, western, and northeastern regions with 2.35 million, 1.24 million, and 493,000 new products respectively [2]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance successfully issued 40 billion yuan of 20-year ultra-long special bonds, completing the issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan for the year [1] - The issuance of ultra-long special bonds increased by 300 billion yuan compared to last year, with 800 billion yuan allocated to support 1,459 "dual heavy" construction projects [1] - An additional 500 billion yuan of ultra-long special bonds is designated to support the implementation of "two new" policies, with funds already allocated to approximately 8,400 projects in various sectors [1] Group 2 - The last batch of 69 billion yuan for consumer product replacement subsidies was distributed before the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, boosting consumer spending in the fourth quarter [2] - By October 14, over 670 billion yuan of new local government general bonds and over 3.7 trillion yuan of new local government special bonds had been issued, accounting for over 80% of the annual quota [2] - Despite a slowdown in government bond issuance in the fourth quarter, fiscal spending is expected to catch up, with public budget expenditure reaching about 60% of the initial budget forecast [2] Group 3 - The Minister of Finance emphasized that fiscal policy will maintain flexibility, indicating sufficient space for future fiscal policy actions [3] - Market institutions generally believe that there is no strong necessity for further expansionary fiscal policies this year, although the fourth quarter may continue with a positive fiscal stance [3] - New policy financial tools are seen as effective in supplementing major project capital and leveraging social investment, acting as a stabilizing force [3]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance successfully issued 40 billion yuan of 20-year ultra-long special government bonds, completing the issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan for the year [1] - The issuance of ultra-long special government bonds increased by 300 billion yuan this year, supporting 1,459 "dual heavy" construction projects, including major infrastructure and innovative financing models [1] - An additional 50 billion yuan of ultra-long special government bond funds is allocated to support the implementation of "two new" policies, with 8,400 projects benefiting, leading to over 1 trillion yuan in total investment [1] Group 2 - The last batch of 69 billion yuan for consumer product replacement subsidies was allocated before the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, boosting consumer spending in the fourth quarter [2] - As of October 14, new local government general bonds exceeded 670 billion yuan and new special bonds surpassed 3.7 trillion yuan, accounting for over 80% of the annual quota [2] - Despite a slowdown in government bond issuance in the fourth quarter, fiscal spending will still focus on key areas, with public budget expenditure reaching about 60% of the initial budget forecast [2] Group 3 - The Minister of Finance emphasized that fiscal policy has ample room for future action, with new policy financial tools already implemented at the local level [3] - Market institutions believe there is less necessity for further expansionary fiscal policies this year, with a cautious approach to adjusting the fiscal deficit rate [3] - New policy financial tools are seen as "quasi-fiscal" instruments that can effectively support major project capital and leverage social investment [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a steady recovery in tax revenue and invoice sales in China, indicating a positive economic trend supported by various policies [1][2][3] - Tax revenue from the capital market has shown significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 56.8%, particularly driven by a 110.5% rise in securities transaction stamp duty [3] - The manufacturing sector has demonstrated resilience, with tax revenue increasing by 5.4%, contributing to 31% of total tax revenue and accounting for 48% of the overall revenue increase [2] Group 2 - The implementation of consumption-boosting policies has led to a notable increase in the purchase of machinery and consumer goods, with a 9.7% rise in machinery equipment purchases and a 55.4% increase in retail sales of refrigerators [2] - The real estate sector has seen a reduction in tax revenue decline, attributed to effective policies aimed at stabilizing the market, with nearly 80 billion RMB in new tax reductions implemented this year [3] - The overall tax data reflects the effectiveness of incremental policies focused on stimulating consumption, stabilizing the real estate market, and activating the capital market, as indicated by the steady increase in invoice data and tax revenue [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that China's tax revenue and invoice sales are showing steady recovery, reflecting a positive economic trend supported by various policies [1][2][3] - Tax revenue from the capital market has maintained a high growth rate, with a year-on-year increase of 56.8% in capital market service tax, and a significant rise of 110.5% in securities transaction stamp duty [3] - The real estate sector has seen a narrowing decline in tax revenue, attributed to effective policies aimed at stabilizing the market, with nearly 800 billion RMB in new tax reductions implemented this year [3] Group 2 - Major industries and tax categories are experiencing stable growth, with manufacturing tax revenue increasing by 5.4%, accounting for 31% of total tax revenue [2] - Domestic value-added tax has grown by 3.2%, indicating improved business conditions, while corporate income tax has risen by 4.1%, reflecting better profitability in certain sectors [2] - The consumer market is showing signs of vitality, with significant increases in retail sales of household appliances, such as a 55.4% rise in refrigerator sales and a 35.3% increase in television sales [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the steady recovery of VAT invoice sales and tax revenue growth, reflecting an improving economic environment driven by a series of policies implemented by the central government [1][5] - From Q3 of last year to Q3 of this year, the quarterly sales revenue growth rates for enterprises were 0.4%, 2.6%, 2.1%, 3.1%, and 4.4%, indicating a consistent upward trend [1] - Tax revenue has shown a positive turnaround after seven months of negative growth, with a cumulative increase in tax revenue since February, reflecting improved fiscal collection capabilities [1] Group 2 - Capital market-related tax revenues have maintained a high growth rate, indicating active stock market trading, with a 56.8% year-on-year increase in capital market service tax revenue and a 110.5% increase in securities transaction stamp duty [2] - The total market capitalization of A-share companies surpassed 100 trillion yuan for the first time in August, and the Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten-year high in September [2] Group 3 - Major industries and tax categories have shown stable growth, with manufacturing tax revenue increasing by 5.4%, accounting for 31% of total tax revenue, and high-end manufacturing sectors like aerospace and transportation equipment seeing a 31.5% increase [3] - The domestic VAT grew by 3.2%, and corporate income tax increased by 4.1%, reflecting improved profitability among certain industries [3] Group 4 - The decline in real estate-related tax revenue has narrowed, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%, indicating the effectiveness of policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [4] - The implementation of consumption policies has spurred a significant increase in the purchase of machinery and household appliances, with a 9.7% increase in machinery equipment purchases and a 55.4% increase in retail sales of refrigerators [4] Group 5 - The article emphasizes that the series of incremental policies introduced on September 26 last year are a targeted response to economic challenges, focusing on stimulating consumption, stabilizing the real estate market, and activating the capital market [5] - Tax data serves as a clear indicator of the effectiveness of these policies, showing a steady recovery in economic activity and corporate profitability [5]